Phylodynamics and human-mediated dispersal of a zoonotic virus

Understanding the role of humans in the dispersal of predominantly animal pathogens is essential for their control. We used newly developed Bayesian phylogeographic methods to unravel the dynamics and determinants of the spread of dog rabies virus (RABV) in North Africa. Each of the countries studied exhibited largely disconnected spatial dynamics with major geopolitical boundaries acting as barriers to gene flow. Road distances proved to be better predictors of the movement of dog RABV than accessibility or raw geographical distance, with occasional long distance and rapid spread within each of these countries. Using simulations that bridge phylodynamics and spatial epidemiology, we demonstrate that the contemporary viral distribution extends beyond that expected for RABV transmission in African dog populations. These results are strongly supportive of human-mediated dispersal, and demonstrate how an integrated phylogeographic approach will turn viral genetic data into a powerful asset for characterizing, predicting, and potentially controlling the spatial spread of pathogens.     

Revealing the Micro-scale Signature of Endemic Zoonotic Disease Transmission in an African Urban Setting

The development of novel approaches that combine epidemiological and genomic data provides new opportunities to reveal the spatiotemporal dynamics of infectious diseases and determine the processes responsible for their spread and maintenance. Taking advantage of detailed epidemiological time series and viral sequence data from more than 20 years reported by the National Reference Centre for Rabies of Bangui, the capital city of Central African Republic, we used a combination of mathematical modeling and phylogenetic analysis to determine the spatiotemporal dynamics of rabies in domestic dogs as well as the frequency of extinction and introduction events in an African city. We show that although dog rabies virus (RABV) appears to be endemic in Bangui, its epidemiology is in fact shaped by the regular extinction of local chains of transmission coupled with the introduction of new lineages, generating successive waves of spread. Notably, the effective reproduction number during each wave was rarely above the critical value of 1, such that rabies is not self-sustaining in Bangui. In turn, this suggests that rabies at local geographic scales is driven by human-mediated dispersal of RABV among sparsely connected peri-urban and rural areas as opposed to dispersion in a relatively large homogenous urban dog population. This combined epidemiological and genomic approach enables development of a comprehensive framework for understanding disease persistence and informing control measures, indicating that control measures are probably best targeted towards areas neighbouring the city that appear as the source of frequent incursions seeding outbreaks in Bangui.     

Landscape attributes governing local transmission of an endemic zoonosis: Rabies virus in domestic dogs

Landscape heterogeneity plays an important role in disease spread and persistence, but quantifying landscape influences and their scale dependence is challenging. Studies have focused on how environmental features or global transport networks influence pathogen invasion and spread, but their influence on local transmission dynamics that underpin the persistence of endemic diseases remains unexplored. Bayesian phylogeographic frameworks that incorporate spatial heterogeneities are promising tools for analysing linked epidemiological, environmental and genetic data. Here, we extend these methodological approaches to decipher the relative contribution and scale‐dependent effects of landscape influences on the transmission of endemic rabies virus in Serengeti district, Tanzania (area ~4,900 km²). Utilizing detailed epidemiological data and 152 complete viral genomes collected between 2004 and 2013, we show that the localized presence of dogs but not their density is the most important determinant of diffusion, implying that culling will be ineffective for rabies control. Rivers and roads acted as barriers and facilitators to viral spread, respectively, and vaccination impeded diffusion despite variable annual coverage. Notably, we found that landscape effects were scale‐dependent: rivers were barriers and roads facilitators on larger scales, whereas the distribution of dogs was important for rabies dispersal across multiple scales. This nuanced understanding of the spatial processes that underpin rabies transmission can be exploited for targeted control at the scale where it will have the greatest impact. Moreover, this research demonstrates how current phylogeographic frameworks can be adapted to improve our understanding of endemic disease dynamics at different spatial scales.     

Evolutionary History and Phylogeography of Rabies Viruses Associated with Outbreaks in Trinidad

Bat rabies is an emerging disease of public health significance in the Americas. The Caribbean island of Trinidad experiences periodic outbreaks within the livestock population. We performed molecular characterisation of Trinidad rabies virus (RABV) and used a Bayesian phylogeographic approach to investigate the extent to which outbreaks are a result of in situ evolution versus importation of virus from the nearby South American mainland. Trinidadian RABV sequences were confirmed as bat variant and clustered with Desmodus rotundus (vampire bat) related sequences. They fell into two largely temporally defined lineages designated Trinidad I and II. The Trinidad I lineage which included sequences from 1997–2000 (all but two of which were from the northeast of the island) was most closely related to RABV from Ecuador (2005, 2007), French Guiana (1990) and Venezuela (1993, 1994). Trinidad II comprised sequences from the southwest of the island, which clustered into two groups: Trinidad IIa, which included one sequence each from 2000 and 2007, and Trinidad IIb including all 2010 sequences. The Trinidad II sequences were most closely related to sequences from Brazil (1999, 2004) and Uruguay (2007, 2008). Phylogeographic analyses support three separate RABV introductions from the mainland from which each of the three Trinidadian lineages arose. The estimated dates for the introductions and subsequent lineage expansions suggest periods of in situ evolution within Trinidad following each introduction. These data also indicate co-circulation of Trinidad lineage I and IIa during 2000. In light of these findings and the likely vampire bat origin of Trinidadian RABV, further studies should be conducted to investigate the relationship between RABV spatiotemporal dynamics and vampire bat population ecology, in particular any movement between the mainland and Trinidad.     

Recent Emergence and Spread of an Arctic-Related Phylogenetic Lineage of Rabies Virus in Nepal

Rabies is a zoonotic disease that is endemic in many parts of the developing world, especially in Africa and Asia. However its epidemiology remains largely unappreciated in much of these regions, such as in Nepal, where limited information is available about the spatiotemporal dynamics of the main etiological agent, the rabies virus (RABV). In this study, we describe for the first time the phylogenetic diversity and evolution of RABV circulating in Nepal, as well as their geographical relationships within the broader region. A total of 24 new isolates obtained from Nepal and collected from 2003 to 2011 were full-length sequenced for both the nucleoprotein and the glycoprotein genes, and analysed using neighbour-joining and maximum-likelihood phylogenetic methods with representative viruses from all over the world, including new related RABV strains from neighbouring or more distant countries (Afghanistan, Greenland, Iran, Russia and USA). Despite Nepal''s limited land surface and its particular geographical position within the Indian subcontinent, our study revealed the presence of a surprising wide genetic diversity of RABV, with the co-existence of three different phylogenetic groups: an Indian subcontinent clade and two different Arctic-like sub-clades within the Arctic-related clade. This observation suggests at least two independent episodes of rabies introduction from neighbouring countries. In addition, specific phylogenetic and temporal evolution analysis of viruses within the Arctic-related clade has identified a new recently emerged RABV lineage we named as the Arctic-like 3 (AL-3) sub-clade that is already widely spread in Nepal.     

The Phylogeography and Spatiotemporal Spread of South-Central Skunk Rabies Virus

The south-central skunk rabies virus (SCSK) is the most broadly distributed terrestrial viral lineage in North America. Skunk rabies has not been efficiently targeted by oral vaccination campaigns and represents a natural system of pathogen invasion, yielding insights to rabies emergence. In the present study we reconstructed spatiotemporal spread of SCSK in the whole territory of its circulation using a combination of Bayesian methods. The analysis based on 241 glycoprotein gene sequences demonstrated that SCSK is much more divergent phylogenetically than was appreciated previously. According to our analyses the SCSK originated in the territory of Texas ~170 years ago, and spread geographically during the following decades. The wavefront velocity in the northward direction was significantly greater than in the eastward and westward directions. Rivers (except the Mississippi River and Rio Grande River) did not constitute significant barriers for epizootic spread, in contrast to deserts and mountains. The mean dispersal rate of skunk rabies was lower than that of the raccoon and fox rabies. Viral lineages circulate in their areas with limited evidence of geographic spread during decades. However, spatiotemporal reconstruction shows that after a long period of stability the dispersal rate and wavefront velocity of SCSK are increasing. Our results indicate that there is a need to develop control measures for SCSK, and suggest how such measure can be implemented most efficiently. Our approach can be extrapolated to other rabies reservoirs and used as a tool for investigation of epizootic patterns and planning interventions towards disease elimination.     

Molecular Inferences Suggest Multiple Host Shifts of Rabies Viruses from Bats to Mesocarnivores in Arizona during 2001–2009

In nature, rabies virus (RABV; genus Lyssavirus, family Rhabdoviridae) represents an assemblage of phylogenetic lineages, associated with specific mammalian host species. Although it is generally accepted that RABV evolved originally in bats and further shifted to carnivores, mechanisms of such host shifts are poorly understood, and examples are rarely present in surveillance data. Outbreaks in carnivores caused by a RABV variant, associated with big brown bats, occurred repeatedly during 2001–2009 in the Flagstaff area of Arizona. After each outbreak, extensive control campaigns were undertaken, with no reports of further rabies cases in carnivores for the next several years. However, questions remained whether all outbreaks were caused by a single introduction and further perpetuation of bat RABV in carnivore populations, or each outbreak was caused by an independent introduction of a bat virus. Another question of concern was related to adaptive changes in the RABV genome associated with host shifts. To address these questions, we sequenced and analyzed 66 complete and 20 nearly complete RABV genomes, including those from the Flagstaff area and other similar outbreaks in carnivores, caused by bat RABVs, and representatives of the major RABV lineages circulating in North America and worldwide. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that each Flagstaff outbreak was caused by an independent introduction of bat RABV into populations of carnivores. Positive selection analysis confirmed the absence of post-shift changes in RABV genes. In contrast, convergent evolution analysis demonstrated several amino acids in the N, P, G and L proteins, which might be significant for pre-adaptation of bat viruses to cause effective infection in carnivores. The substitution S/T₂₄₂ in the viral glycoprotein is of particular merit, as a similar substitution was suggested for pathogenicity of Nishigahara RABV strain. Roles of the amino acid changes, detected in our study, require additional investigations, using reverse genetics and other approaches.     

Phylodynamics of vampire bat‐transmitted rabies in Argentina

Common vampire bat populations distributed from Mexico to Argentina are important rabies reservoir hosts in Latin America. The aim of this work was to analyse the population structure of the rabies virus (RABV) variants associated with vampire bats in the Americas and to study their phylodynamic pattern within Argentina. The phylogenetic analysis based on all available vampire bat‐related N gene sequences showed both a geographical and a temporal structure. The two largest groups of RABV variants from Argentina were isolated from northwestern Argentina and from the central western zone of northeastern Argentina, corresponding to livestock areas with different climatic, topographic and biogeographical conditions, which determined their dissemination and evolutionary patterns. In addition, multiple introductions of the infection into Argentina, possibly from Brazil, were detected. The phylodynamic analysis suggests that RABV transmission dynamics is characterized by initial epizootic waves followed by local enzootic cycles with variable persistence. Anthropogenic interventions in the ecosystem should be assessed taking into account not only the environmental impact but also the potential risk of disease spreading through dissemination of current RABV lineages or the emergence of novel ones associated with vampire bats.     

Biotechnology advances: A perspective on the diagnosis and research of Rabies Virus

Rabies is a widespread zoonotic disease responsible for approximately 55,000 human deaths/year. The direct fluorescent antibody test (DFAT) and the mouse inoculation test (MIT) used for rabies diagnosis, have high sensitivity and specificity, but are expensive and time-consuming. These disadvantages and the identification of new strains of the virus encourage the use of new techniques that are rapid, sensitive, specific and economical for the detection and research of the Rabies Virus (RABV). Real-time RT-PCR, phylogeographic analysis, proteomic assays and DNA recombinant technology have been used in research laboratories. Together, these techniques are effective on samples with low virus titers in the study of molecular epidemiology or in the identification of new disease markers, thus improving the performance of biological assays. In this context, modern advances in molecular technology are now beginning to complement more traditional approaches and promise to revolutionize the diagnosis of rabies. This brief review presents some of the recent molecular tools used for RABV analysis, with emphasis on rabies diagnosis and research.     

Unifying Viral Genetics and Human Transportation Data to Predict the Global Transmission Dynamics of Human Influenza H3N2

Information on global human movement patterns is central to spatial epidemiological models used to predict the behavior of influenza and other infectious diseases. Yet it remains difficult to test which modes of dispersal drive pathogen spread at various geographic scales using standard epidemiological data alone. Evolutionary analyses of pathogen genome sequences increasingly provide insights into the spatial dynamics of influenza viruses, but to date they have largely neglected the wealth of information on human mobility, mainly because no statistical framework exists within which viral gene sequences and empirical data on host movement can be combined. Here, we address this problem by applying a phylogeographic approach to elucidate the global spread of human influenza subtype H3N2 and assess its ability to predict the spatial spread of human influenza A viruses worldwide. Using a framework that estimates the migration history of human influenza while simultaneously testing and quantifying a range of potential predictive variables of spatial spread, we show that the global dynamics of influenza H3N2 are driven by air passenger flows, whereas at more local scales spread is also determined by processes that correlate with geographic distance. Our analyses further confirm a central role for mainland China and Southeast Asia in maintaining a source population for global influenza diversity. By comparing model output with the known pandemic expansion of H1N1 during 2009, we demonstrate that predictions of influenza spatial spread are most accurate when data on human mobility and viral evolution are integrated. In conclusion, the global dynamics of influenza viruses are best explained by combining human mobility data with the spatial information inherent in sampled viral genomes. The integrated approach introduced here offers great potential for epidemiological surveillance through phylogeographic reconstructions and for improving predictive models of disease control.     

Proteomic Profiling of Purified Rabies Virus Particles

While host proteins incorporated into virions during viral budding from infected cell are known to play essential roles in multiple process of the life cycle of progeny virus, these characteristics have been largely neglected in studies on rabies virus(RABV). Here, we purified the RABV virions with good purity and integrity, and analyzed their proteome by nano LC–MS/MS, followed by the confirmation with immunoblot and immuno-electronic microscopy. In addition to the 5 viral proteins, 49 cellular proteins were reproducibly identified to be incorporated into matured RABV virions. Function annotation suggested that 24 of them were likely involved in virus replication. Furthermore, cryo-EM was employed to observe the purified RABV virions, generating high-resolution pictures of the bullet-shaped virion structure of RABV. This study has provided new insights into the host proteins composition in RABV virion and shed the light for further investigation on molecular mechanisms of RABV infection, as well as the discovery of new anti-RABV therapeutics.     

Spatial and temporal dynamics of rabies virus variants in big brown bat populations across Canada: footprints of an emerging zoonosis

Phylogenetic analysis of a collection of rabies viruses that currently circulate in Canadian big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) identified five distinct lineages which have emerged from a common ancestor that existed over 400 years ago. Four of these lineages are regionally restricted in their range while the fifth lineage, comprising two‐thirds of all specimens, has emerged in recent times and exhibits a recent demographic expansion with rapid spread across the Canadian range of its host. Four of these viral lineages are shown to circulate in the US. To explore the role of the big brown bat host in dissemination of these viral variants, the population structure of this species was explored using both mitochondrial DNA and nuclear microsatellite markers. These data suggest the existence of three subpopulations distributed in British Columbia, mid‐western Canada (Alberta and Saskatchewan) and eastern Canada (Quebec and Ontario), respectively. We suggest that these three bat subpopulations may differ by their level of female phylopatry, which in turn affects the spread of rabies viruses. We discuss how this bat population structure has affected the historical spread of rabies virus variants across the country and the potential impact of these events on public health concerns regarding rabies.     

Mathematical modelling and phylodynamics for the study of dog rabies dynamics and control: A scoping review

BackgroundRabies is a fatal yet vaccine-preventable disease. In the last two decades, domestic dog populations have been shown to constitute the predominant reservoir of rabies in developing countries, causing 99% of human rabies cases. Despite substantial control efforts, dog rabies is still widely endemic and is spreading across previously rabies-free areas. Developing a detailed understanding of dog rabies dynamics and the impact of vaccination is essential to optimize existing control strategies and developing new ones. In this scoping review, we aimed at disentangling the respective contributions of mathematical models and phylodynamic approaches to advancing the understanding of rabies dynamics and control in domestic dog populations. We also addressed the methodological limitations of both approaches and the remaining issues related to studying rabies spread and how this could be applied to rabies control.Methodology/principal findingsWe reviewed how mathematical modelling of disease dynamics and phylodynamics have been developed and used to characterize dog rabies dynamics and control. Through a detailed search of the PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus databases, we identified a total of n = 59 relevant studies using mathematical models (n = 30), phylodynamic inference (n = 22) and interdisciplinary approaches (n = 7). We found that despite often relying on scarce rabies epidemiological data, mathematical models investigated multiple aspects of rabies dynamics and control. These models confirmed the overwhelming efficacy of massive dog vaccination campaigns in all settings and unraveled the role of dog population structure and frequent introductions in dog rabies maintenance. Phylodynamic approaches successfully disentangled the evolutionary and environmental determinants of rabies dispersal and consistently reported support for the role of reintroduction events and human-mediated transportation over long distances in the maintenance of rabies in endemic areas. Potential biases in data collection still need to be properly accounted for in most of these analyses. Finally, interdisciplinary studies were determined to provide the most comprehensive assessments through hypothesis generation and testing. They also represent new avenues, especially concerning the reconstruction of local transmission chains or clusters through data integration.Conclusions/significanceDespite advances in rabies knowledge, substantial uncertainty remains regarding the mechanisms of local spread, the role of wildlife in dog rabies maintenance, and the impact of community behavior on the efficacy of control strategies including vaccination of dogs. Future integrative approaches that use phylodynamic analyses and mechanistic models within a single framework could take full advantage of not only viral sequences but also additional epidemiological information as well as dog ecology data to refine our understanding of rabies spread and control. This would represent a significant improvement on past studies and a promising opportunity for canine rabies research in the frame of the One Health concept that aims to achieve better public health outcomes through cross-sector collaboration.     

The Phylogeography of Rabies in Grenada,West Indies,and Implications for Control

In Grenada, West Indies, rabies is endemic, and is thought to be maintained in a wildlife host, the small Indian mongoose (Herpestes auropunctatus) with occasional spillover into other hosts. Therefore, the present study was undertaken to improve understanding of rabies epidemiology in Grenada and to inform rabies control policy. Mongooses were trapped island-wide between April 2011 and March 2013 and examined for the presence of Rabies virus (RABV) antigen using the direct fluorescent antibody test (dFAT) and PCR, and for serum neutralizing antibodies (SNA) using the fluorescent antibody virus neutralization test (FAVN). An additional cohort of brain samples from clinical rabies suspects submitted between April 2011 and March 2014 were also investigated for the presence of virus. Two of the 171 (1.7%) live-trapped mongooses were RABV positive by FAT and PCR, and 20 (11.7%) had SNAs. Rabies was diagnosed in 31 of the submitted animals with suspicious clinical signs: 16 mongooses, 12 dogs, 2 cats and 1 goat. Our investigation has revealed that rabies infection spread from the northeast to the southwest of Grenada within the study period. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the viruses from Grenada formed a monophyletic clade within the cosmopolitan lineage with a common ancestor predicted to have occurred recently (6–23 years ago), and are distinct from those found in Cuba and Puerto Rico, where mongoose rabies is also endemic. These data suggest that it is likely that this specific strain of RABV was imported from European regions rather than the Americas. These data contribute essential information for any potential rabies control program in Grenada and demonstrate the importance of a sound evidence base for planning interventions.     

The spread of tomato yellow leaf curl virus from the Middle East to the world

The ongoing global spread of Tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV; Genus Begomovirus, Family Geminiviridae) represents a serious looming threat to tomato production in all temperate parts of the world. Whereas determining where and when TYLCV movements have occurred could help curtail its spread and prevent future movements of related viruses, determining the consequences of past TYLCV movements could reveal the ecological and economic risks associated with similar viral invasions. Towards this end we applied Bayesian phylogeographic inference and recombination analyses to available TYLCV sequences (including those of 15 new Iranian full TYLCV genomes) and reconstructed a plausible history of TYLCV's diversification and movements throughout the world. In agreement with historical accounts, our results suggest that the first TYLCVs most probably arose somewhere in the Middle East between the 1930s and 1950s (with 95% highest probability density intervals 1905-1972) and that the global spread of TYLCV only began in the 1980s after the evolution of the TYLCV-Mld and -IL strains. Despite the global distribution of TYLCV we found no convincing evidence anywhere other than the Middle East and the Western Mediterranean of epidemiologically relevant TYLCV variants arising through recombination. Although the region around Iran is both the center of present day TYLCV diversity and the site of the most intensive ongoing TYLCV evolution, the evidence indicates that the region is epidemiologically isolated, which suggests that novel TYLCV variants found there are probably not direct global threats. We instead identify the Mediterranean basin as the main launch-pad of global TYLCV movements.     

Limited Brain Metabolism Changes Differentiate between the Progression and Clearance of Rabies Virus

Central nervous system (CNS) metabolic profiles were examined from rabies virus (RABV)-infected mice that were either mock-treated or received post-exposure treatment (PET) with a single dose of the live recombinant RABV vaccine TriGAS. CNS tissue harvested from mock-treated mice at middle and late stage infection revealed numerous changes in energy metabolites, neurotransmitters and stress hormones that correlated with replication levels of viral RNA. Although the large majority of these metabolic changes were completely absent in the brains of TriGAS-treated mice most likely due to the strong reduction in virus spread, TriGAS treatment resulted in the up-regulation of the expression of carnitine and several acylcarnitines, suggesting that these compounds are neuroprotective. The most striking change seen in mock-treated RABV-infected mice was a dramatic increase in brain and serum corticosterone levels, with the later becoming elevated before clinical signs or loss of body weight occurred. We speculate that the rise in corticosterone is part of a strategy of RABV to block the induction of immune responses that would otherwise interfere with its spread. In support of this concept, we show that pharmacological intervention to inhibit corticosterone biosynthesis, in the absence of vaccine treatment, significantly reduces the pathogenicity of RABV. Our results suggest that widespread metabolic changes, including hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis activation, contribute to the pathogenesis of RABV and that preventing these alterations early in infection with PET or pharmacological blockade helps protect brain homeostasis, thereby reducing disease mortality.     

Reconstructing the history of maize streak virus strain a dispersal to reveal diversification hot spots and its origin in southern Africa

Maize streak virus strain A (MSV-A), the causal agent of maize streak disease, is today one of the most serious biotic threats to African food security. Determining where MSV-A originated and how it spread transcontinentally could yield valuable insights into its historical emergence as a crop pathogen. Similarly, determining where the major extant MSV-A lineages arose could identify geographical hot spots of MSV evolution. Here, we use model-based phylogeographic analyses of 353 fully sequenced MSV-A isolates to reconstruct a plausible history of MSV-A movements over the past 150 years. We show that since the probable emergence of MSV-A in southern Africa around 1863, the virus spread transcontinentally at an average rate of 32.5 km/year (95% highest probability density interval, 15.6 to 51.6 km/year). Using distinctive patterns of nucleotide variation caused by 20 unique intra-MSV-A recombination events, we tentatively classified the MSV-A isolates into 24 easily discernible lineages. Despite many of these lineages displaying distinct geographical distributions, it is apparent that almost all have emerged within the past 4 decades from either southern or east-central Africa. Collectively, our results suggest that regular analysis of MSV-A genomes within these diversification hot spots could be used to monitor the emergence of future MSV-A lineages that could affect maize cultivation in Africa.