种群统计随机性和环境随机性对种群绝灭的影响

影响种群绝灭的随机干扰可分为种群统计随机性、环境随机性和随机灾害三大类。在相对稳定的环境条件下和相对较短的时间内,以前两类随机干扰对种群绝灭的影响为生态学家关注的焦点。但是,由于自然种群动态及其影响因子的复杂特征,进一步深入研究随机干扰对种群绝灭的作用在理论上和实践上都必须发展新的技术手段。本文回顾了种群统计随机性与环境随机性的概念起源与发展,系统阐述了其分析方法。归纳了两类随机性在种群绝灭研究中的应用范围、作用方式和特点的异同和区别方法。各类随机作用与种群动态之间关系的理论研究与对种群绝灭机理的实践研究紧密相关。根据理论模型模拟和自然种群实际分析两方面的研究现状,作者提出了进一步深入研究随机作用与种群非线性动态方法的策略。指出了随机干扰影响种群绝灭过程的研究的方向：更多的研究将从单纯的定性分析随机干扰对种群动力学简单性质的作用,转向结合特定的种群非线性动态特征和各类随机力作用特点具体分析绝灭极端动态的成因,以期做出精确的预测。     

Seasonality, microhabitat and cryptic variation in tropical salamander reproductive cycles

In many salamanders, most aspects of reproduction coincide with seasonal changes in abiotic factors such as temperature and humidity. However, while these reproductive patterns have been well documented for temperate salamanders, detailed data for tropical species are relatively sparse. I used histological techniques to examine temporal variation in the spermatogenetic cycles of four species of Guatemalan bolitoglossine salamanders ( Bolitoglossa occidentalis , B. rostrata , Dendrotriton bromeliacia and Pseudoeurycea goebeli ) from different microhabitats along an elevational gradient. All four species have mature sperm present in the testis throughout the year, irrespective of patterns of courtship and egg-laying. Additionally, the two species from more seasonal habitats ( B. occidentalis and B. rostrata ) exhibit significant but cryptic levels of variation in the amount of spermatozoa present in the testis not detectable by external appearance or the presence of secondary sexual characteristics. For the two species from less seasonal cloud forests ( D. bromeliacia and P. goebeli ), there were no detectable patterns to variation within the testis. Regional variation in climate undoubtedly influences reproductive cycles, however, microhabitat and the immediate environment are also important determinants of reproductive strategy.  © 2003 The Linnean Society of London . Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2003, 78 , 489–496.     

Cycles, stochasticity and density dependence in pink salmon population dynamics

Complex dynamics of animal populations often involve deterministic and stochastic components. A fascinating example is the variation in magnitude of 2-year cycles in abundances of pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) stocks along the North Pacific rim. Pink salmon have a 2-year anadromous and semelparous life cycle, resulting in odd- and even-year lineages that occupy the same habitats but are reproductively isolated in time. One lineage is often much more abundant than the other in a given river, and there are phase switches in dominance between odd- and even-year lines. In some regions, the weak line is absent and in others both lines are abundant. Our analysis of 33 stocks indicates that these patterns probably result from stochastic perturbations of damped oscillations owing to density-dependent mortality caused by interactions between lineages. Possible mechanisms are cannibalism, disease transmission, food depletion and habitat degradation by which one lineage affects the other, although no mechanism has been well-studied. Our results provide comprehensive empirical estimates of lagged density-dependent mortality in salmon populations and suggest that a combination of stochasticity and density dependence drives cyclical dynamics of pink salmon stocks.     

Overcompensatory population dynamic responses to environmental stochasticity

1. To quantify the interactions between density-dependent, population regulation and density-independent limitation, we studied the time-series dynamics of an experimental laboratory insect microcosm system in which both environmental noise and resource limitation were manipulated. 2. A hierarchical Bayesian state-space approach is presented through which it is feasible to capture all sources of uncertainty, including observation error to accurately quantify the density dependence operating on the dynamics. 3. The regulatory processes underpinning the dynamics of two different bruchid beetles (Callosobruchus maculatus and Callosobruchus chinensis) are principally determined by environmental conditions, with fluctuations in abundance explained in terms of changes in overcompensatory dynamics and stochastic processes. 4. A general, stochastic population model is developed to explore the link between abundance fluctuations and the interaction between density dependence and noise. Taking account of time-lags in population regulation can substantially increase predicted population fluctuations resulting from underlying noise processes.     

Incorporating environmental stochasticity within a biological population model

The birth and death transition rates for a population are modelled as functions of both the population size and the environmental condition. An assortment of important theoretical results and techniques that can be utilized to analyze such a population’s behaviour is covered. Consequently, these results and techniques are used to study two examples. Firstly, we study a population with a stable equilibrium state, whose per capita birth and death rates are linearly related to the environmental condition. (The environmental condition in turn is modelled as an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process.) Secondly, we study a population affected by two interdependent environmental factors.     

Pathogen interactions, population cycles, and phase shifts

Interspecific pathogen interactions can profoundly affect pathogen population dynamics and the efficacy of control strategies. However, many pathogens exhibit cyclic abundance patterns (e.g., seasonality), and temporal asynchrony between interacting pathogens could reduce the impact of those interactions. Here we use an extension of our previously published model to investigate the effects of cycles on pathogen interaction. We demonstrate that host immune memory can maintain the impact of an interaction, even when the effector pathogen abundance is low or the pathogen is absent. Paradoxically, immune memory can result in pathogens interacting more strongly when temporally out of phase. We find that interactions between species can result in changes to the temporal pattern of the affected species. We further demonstrate that this may be observed in a natural host-pathogen system. Given the continuing debate regarding the relevance of pathogen interactions in natural systems and increasing concern about treatment strategies for coinfections, both the discovery of a shift in cycle in empirical data and the mechanism by which we identified it are important. Finally, because the model structure used here is analogous to models of a simple predator-prey system, we also consider the consequences of these findings in the context of that system.     

Correctly estimating how environmental stochasticity influences fitness and population growth

Increased temporal variance in life-history traits is generally predicted to decrease individual fitness and population growth. We show that a widely used result of stochastic sensitivity analysis that bolsters this generality is flawed because it ignores the effects of correlations between vital rates. Considering the effects of these correlations (although ignoring autocorrelations), we show that the apparently simple relationship between vital rate variance and fitness can be considerably more complex than previously thought. In particular, the previously estimated negative sensitivities of fitness or population growth to variance in a vital rate can be either enhanced by positive correlations between rates or reversed by negative correlations, even to the point that variability in a rate can increase fitness or population growth. We apply this new sensitivity calculation to data from the desert tortoise and discuss its interpretation in light of the factors generating vital rate correlations.     

The synergistic effects of stochasticity and dispersal on population densities

Using laboratory experiments, simulation models, and analytical techniques, we examined the impact of dispersal on the mean densities of patchily distributed populations. Even when dispersal leads to no net additions or removals of individuals from a population, it may nonetheless increase mean population densities if the net immigration rate is positive when populations are growing and negative when they are declining. As a model system for exploring this phenomenon, we used the yeastlike fungus Aureobasidium pullulans. In a laboratory experiment, we showed that dispersal can both ensure persistence and increase mean population densities even when dispersal among populations causes no direct addition or loss of fungal cells. From the laboratory data, we constructed a plausible model of A. pullulans dynamics among apple leaves within an orchard. This simulation model demonstrated that the effect of dispersal on mean densities is enhanced by three factors: weak density dependence of the dynamics within populations, high environmental variability affecting population growth rates, and lack of synchrony among the fluctuations of populations. Using an analytical model, we showed that the underlying mechanisms for this phenomenon are general, suggesting that a large effect of dispersal on mean population densities is possible in many natural systems.     

Collapsing population cycles

During the past two decades population cycles in voles, grouse and insects have been fading out in Europe. Here, we discuss the cause and implication of these changes. Several lines of evidence now point to climate forcing as the general underlying cause. However, how climate interacts with demography to induce regime shifts in population dynamics is likely to differ among species and ecosystems. Herbivores with high-amplitude population cycles, such as voles, lemmings, snowshoe hares and forest Lepidoptera, form the heart of terrestrial food web dynamics. Thus, collapses of these cycles are also expected to imply collapses of important ecosystem functions, such as the pulsed flows of resources and disturbances.     

The follicular automaton model: effect of stochasticity and of synchronization of hair cycles

Human scalp hair consists of a set of about 10(5)follicles which progress independently through developmental cycles. Each hair follicle successively goes through the anagen (A), catagen (C), telogen (T) and latency (L) phases that correspond, respectively, to growth, arrest and hair shedding before a new anagen phase is initiated. Long-term experimental observations in a group of ten male, alopecic and non-alopecic volunteers allowed determination of the characteristics of hair follicle cycles. On the basis of these observations, we previously proposed a follicular automaton model to simulate the dynamics of human hair cycles and the development of different patterns of alopecia [Halloy et al. (2000) Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. U.S.A.97, 8328-8333]. The automaton model is defined by a set of rules that govern the stochastic transitions of each follicle between the successive states A, T, L and the subsequent return to A. These transitions occur independently for each follicle, after time intervals given stochastically by a distribution characterized by a mean and a standard deviation. The follicular automaton model was shown to account both for the dynamical transitions observed in a single follicle, and for the behaviour of an ensemble of independently cycling follicles. Here, we extend these results and investigate additional properties of the model. We present a deterministic version of the follicular automaton. We show that numerical simulations of the stochastic version of the automaton yield steady-state level of follicles in the different phases which approach the levels predicted by the deterministic equations as the number of follicles progressively increases. Only the stochastic version can successfully reproduce the fluctuations of the fractions of follicles in each of the three phases, observed in small follicle populations. When the standard deviation is reduced or when the follicles become otherwise synchronized, e.g. by a periodic external signal inducing the transition of anagen follicles into telogen phase, large-amplitude oscillations occur in the fractions of follicles in the three phases. These oscillations are not observed in humans but are reminiscent of the phenomenon of moulting observed in a number of mammalian species.     

Experimental evidence of size-selective harvest and environmental stochasticity effects on population demography,fluctuations and non-linearity

Theory and analyses of fisheries data sets indicate that harvesting can alter population structure and destabilise non-linear processes, which increases population fluctuations. We conducted a factorial experiment on the population dynamics of Daphnia magna in relation to size-selective harvesting and stochasticity of food supply. Harvesting and stochasticity treatments both increased population fluctuations. Timeseries analysis indicated that fluctuations in control populations were non-linear, and non-linearity increased substantially in response to harvesting. Both harvesting and stochasticity induced population juvenescence, but harvesting did so via the depletion of adults, whereas stochasticity increased the abundance of juveniles. A fitted fisheries model indicated that harvesting shifted populations towards higher reproductive rates and larger-magnitude damped oscillations that amplify demographic noise. These findings provide experimental evidence that harvesting increases the non-linearity of population fluctuations and that both harvesting and stochasticity increase population variability and juvenescence.     

Seasonality,population dynamics and production of planktonic rotifers in Lough Neagh,Northern Ireland

The abundances, population dynamics and production of the rotifer community of Lough Neagh were examined for a three year period. Keratella cochlearis was the most abundant species accounting for over 40% of biomass followed by Polyarthra dolichoptera and Notholca acuminata. The mean standing crop for the rotiferan zooplankton increased in successive years (41, 51, 75 mg dwt m^–2) as did production (1037, 1322, 1417 mg dwt m^–2 y^–1). The seasonal pattern of biomass expression and production varies markedly in different years. Instantaneous birth rates tend to be lower but more consistent for the more abundant species, instantaneous death rates show periods of negative mortality indicating an inadequacy of the model employed but explicable as hatching of resting eggs. K. cochlearis as the most successful species is explained as its perennial appearance and adaptation to the low annual temperature cycle found in the lough. The population succession and the annual occurrence of species differs in each year.     

Environmental stochasticity and extinction risk in a population of a small songbird, the great tit

Using a long-term demographic data set, we estimated the separate effects of demographic and environmental stochasticity in the growth rate of the great tit population in Wytham Wood, United Kingdom. Assuming logistic density regulation, both the demographic (sigma2d = 0.569) and environmental (sigma2e = 0.0793) variance, with interactions included, were significantly greater than zero. The estimates of the demographic variance seemed to be relatively insensitive to the length of the study period, whereas reliable estimates of the environmental variance required long time series (at least 15 yr of data). The demographic variance decreased significantly with increasing population density. These estimates are used in a quantitative analysis of the demographic factors affecting the risk of extinction of this population. The very long expected time to extinction of this population (approximately 10(19) yr) was related to a relatively large population size (>/=120 pairs during the study period). However, for a given population size, the expected time to extinction was sensitive to both variation in population growth rate and environmental stochasticity. Furthermore, the form of the density regulation strongly affected the expected time to extinction. Time to extinction decreased when the maximum density regulation approached K. This suggests that estimates of viability of small populations should be given both with and without inclusion of density dependence.     

Relative importance of density-dependent regulation and environmental stochasticity for butterfly population dynamics

The relative contribution of density-dependent regulation and environmental stochasticity to the temporal dynamics of animal populations is one of the central issues of ecology. In insects, the primary role of the latter factor, typically represented by weather patterns, is widely accepted. We have evaluated the impact of density dependence as well as density-independent factors, including weather and mowing regime, on annual fluctuations of butterfly populations. As model species, we used Maculinea alcon and M. teleius living in sympatry and, consequently, we also analysed the effect of their potential competition. Density dependence alone explained 62 and 42% of the variation in the year-to-year trends of M. alcon and M. teleius, respectively. The cumulative Akaike weight of models with density dependence, which can be interpreted as the probability that this factor should be contained in the most appropriate population dynamics model, exceeded 0.97 for both species. In contrast, the impacts of inter-specific competition, mowing regime and weather were much weaker, with their cumulative weights being in the range of 0.08–0.21; in addition, each of these factors explained only 2–5% of additional variation in Maculinea population trends. Our results provide strong evidence for density-dependent regulation in Maculinea, while the influence of environmental stochasticity is rather minor. In the light of several recent studies on other butterflies that detected significant density-dependent effects, it would appear that density-dependent regulation may be more widespread in this group than previously thought, while the role of environmental stochasticity has probably been overestimated. We suggest that this misconception is the result of deficiencies in the design of most butterfly population studies in the past, including (1) a strong focus on adults and a neglect of the larval stage in which density-dependent effects are most likely to occur; (2) an almost exclusive reliance on transect count results that may confound the impact of environmental stochasticity on butterfly numbers with its impact on adult longevity. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Seasonality of births and family characteristics in a Spanish population

The seasonality of births in the period 1871-1977 is studied in a rural north-western Spanish population. Based on a total sample of 11,695 birth registrations, temporal variation is analysed. For siblings, according to family reconstitution, the total family size, the legitimacy of the child, and birth order are considered. A coefficient of birth month dispersion is defined and estimated for each family. Intra-family variation is related to inter-family coefficients in order to determine whether the local seasonal pattern of births may be partly explained by family characteristics.     

Environmental stochasticity and population dynamics of large herbivores: a search for mechanisms

Recently, the results from several long-term individual-based population studies of ungulates have been published. One major conclusion is that the population dynamics of ungulates in predator-free environments is strongly influenced by a combination of stochastic variation in the environment, and population density. Both density dependence and environmental stochasticity operate through changes in life history traits, correlated with variation in body weight. This generates delays in the response of the population to changes in environment. In the absence of predation, a stable equilibrium is therefore unlikely to exist between an ungulate population and its food resources. This thorough understanding of the mechanisms generating population fluctuations suggests that studies of ungulates will provide an important source for examining effects of long-term changes in the environment, for instance, resulting from a climatic change.     

Phase switching in population cycles

Oscillatory populations may exhibit a phase change in which, for example, a high–low periodic pattern switches to a low–high pattern. We propose that phase shifts correspond to stochastic jumps between basins of attraction in an appropriate phase space which associates the different phases of a periodic cycle with distinct attractors. This mechanism accounts for two-cycle phase shifts and the occurrence of asynchronous replicates in experimental cultures of Tribolium.     

Circadian activity patterns,photoperiodic responses and population cycles in voles

Summary Patterns of above-ground activity were recorded in two free-ranging populations of Microtus agrestis (L.) and one population of M. arvalis (Pall.) over several years by means of passage counters. Long-term variations of the circadian patterns were observed, but did not repeat themselves in a 12-month cycle. Variations in all three populations could be described by a sinusoidal function of an 18-month period. Maxima and minima of the sine-function were connected to distinct photoperiods (equinoxes and solstices). In a cyclic North Swedish population, the sine-function was superimposed by a second function which shows saturation behaviour. The relevance of these findings is discussed with respect to vole population cycles.