The pattern of population growth as a function of redundancy and repair

A basic model of hierarchical structure, expressed by simple, linear differential equations, shows that the pattern of population growth is essentially determined by conditions of redundancy in the sub-structure of individuals. There does not exist any possible combination between growth rate and accident rate that could balance population numbers and/or the level of redundancy within the population; all possible combinations either lead to extinction or to positive population growth with a decline of the fraction of individuals with redundant substructure. Declining populations, however, can be held fluctuating between certain limits by periodic phases of sub-unit repair. These results are particularly pertinent to the population dynamics of diploid (polyploid) organisms.     

Segregation and the evolution of sex under overdominant selection

The segregation of alleles disrupts genetic associations at overdominant loci, causing a sexual population to experience a lower mean fitness compared to an asexual population. To investigate whether circumstances promoting increased sex exist within a population with heterozygote advantage, a model is constructed that monitors the frequency of alleles at a modifier locus that changes the relative allocation to sexual and asexual reproduction. The frequency of these modifier alleles changes over time as a correlated response to the dynamics at a fitness locus under overdominant selection. Increased sex can be favored in partially sexual populations that inbreed to some extent. This surprising finding results from the fact that inbred populations have an excess of homozygous individuals, for whom sex is always favorable. The conditions promoting increased levels of sex depend on the selection pressure against the homozygotes, the extent of sex and inbreeding in the population, and the dominance of the invading modifier allele.     

Multilevel selection and neighbourhood effects from individual to metapopulation in a wild passerine

Multilevel selection has rarely been studied in the ecological context of animal populations, in which neighbourhood effects range from competition among territorial neighbours to source-sink effects among local populations. By studying a Dupont's lark Chersophilus duponti metapopulation, we analyze neighbourhood effects mediated by song repertoires on fitness components at the individual level (life-span) and population level (growth rate). As a sexual/aggressive signal with strong effects on fitness, birdsong creates an opportunity for group selection via neighbour interactions, but may also have population-wide effects by conveying information on habitat suitability to dispersing individuals. Within populations, we found a disruptive pattern of selection at the individual level and an opposite, stabilizing pattern at the group level. Males singing the most complex songs had the longest life-span, but individuals with the poorest repertoires lived longer than 'average' males, a finding that likely reflects two male strategies with respect to fitness and sexual trait expression. Individuals from groups with intermediate repertoires had the longest life-span, likely benefitting from conspecific signalling to attract females up to the detrimental spread of competitive interactions in groups with superior vocal skills. Within the metapopulation selection was directional but again followed opposite patterns at the two levels: Populations had the highest growth rate when inhabiting local patches with complex repertoires surrounded by patches with simple repertoires. Here the song may impact metapopulation dynamics by guiding prospecting individuals towards populations advertising habitat quality. Two fitness components linked to viability were therefore influenced by the properties of the group, and birdsong was the target of selection, contributing to linking social/sexual processes at the local scale with regional population dynamics.     

Evidence for plasticity,but not local adaptation,in invasive Japanese knotweed (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Reynoutria japonica</Emphasis>) in North America

While local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity are commonly observed in species occupying heterogeneous environments, these phenomena are less well understood in invasive species. However, plant invasions offer the opportunity to study these dynamics as they occur in species colonizing new habitats. In this study, we examined local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity in an invasive plant, Reynoutria japonica, across a broad latitudinal range within North America. We performed full-factorial reciprocal transplants using plants from three sites and examined fitness responses in both sexual and clonal reproductive measures, as well as vegetative responses in height, basal stem diameter, and biomass. For all vegetative traits, there was a significant effect of source population, indicating genetic differentiation among populations. There was also a significant effect of transplant site, suggesting phenotypic plasticity. However, there was no evidence of local adaptation at the North American meta-population level for either measure of sexual or clonal fitness. All three comparisons for sexual fitness failed to show any differences between source populations, indicating a lack of local adaptation. For clonal fitness, two of the three comparisons showed local maladaptation, and only one showed greater fitness at the home compared to foreign sites, but this population had greater fitness at all sites, indicating greater fitness overall for this population rather than local adaptation. The fact that we did not detect consistent patterns of local adaptation in these populations across a broad geographic range is somewhat surprising given that local adaptation appears common in many species, including invasives, and that the populations have been established for over a century. However, the lack of local adaptation observed in this species may indicate that phenotypic plasticity within the species is sufficient to allow the persistence of R. japonica in a variety of environments across its invaded range.     

Dispersal among habitats varying in fitness: reciprocating migration through ideal habitat selection

Current evolutionary models of dispersal set the ends of a continuum where the number of individuals emigrating from a habitat either equals the number of individuals immigrating (balanced dispersal) or where emigrants flow from a source habitat to a corresponding sink. Theories of habitat selection suggest a more sophisticated conditional strategy where individuals disperse from habitats where they have the greatest impact on fitness to habitats where their per capita impact is lower. Asymmetries between periods of population growth and decline result in a reciprocating dispersal strategy where the direction of migration is reversed as populations wax and wane. Thus, for example, if net migration of individuals flows from high- to low-density habitats during periods of population growth, net migration will flow in the opposite direction during population decline. Stochastic simulations and analytical models of reciprocating dispersal demonstrate that fitness, carrying capacity, stochastic dynamics, and interference from dominants interact to determine whether dispersal is balanced between habitats, or whether one habitat or the other acts as a net donor of dispersing individuals. While the pattern of dispersal may vary, each is consistent with an underlying strategy of density-dependent habitat selection.     

Patterns and dynamics of rapid local adaptation and sex in varying habitat types in rotifers

Local adaptation is an important principle in a world of environmental change and might be critical for species persistence. We tested the hypothesis that replicated populations can attain rapid local adaptation under two varying laboratory environments. Clonal subpopulations of the cyclically parthenogenetic rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus were allowed to adapt to two varying harsh and a benign environment: a high‐salt, a food‐limited environment and untreated culture medium (no salt addition, high food). In contrast to most previous studies, we re‐adjusted rotifer density to a fixed value (two individuals per ml) every 3–4 days of unrestricted population growth, instead of exchanging a fixed proportion of the culture medium. Thus our dilution regime specifically selected for high population growth during the entire experiment and it allowed us to continuously track changes in fitness (i.e., maximum population growth under the prevailing conditions) in each population. After 56 days (43 asexual and eight sexual generations) of selection, the populations in the harsh environments showed a significant increase in fitness over time relative to the beginning compared to the population in untreated culture medium. Furthermore, the high‐salt population exhibited a significantly elevated ratio of sexual offspring from the start of the experiment, which suggested that this environment either triggered higher rates of sex or that the untreated medium and the food‐limited environment suppressed sex. In a following assay of local adaptation we measured population fitness under “local” versus “foreign” conditions (populations adapted to this environment compared to those of the other environment) for both harsh habitats. We found significantly higher fitness values for the local populations (on average, a 38% higher fitness) compared to the foreign populations. Overall, local adaptation was formed rapidly and it seemed to be more pronounced in the high‐salt treatment.     

Fixation of new alleles and the extinction of small populations: drift load, beneficial alleles, and sexual selection

With a small effective population size, random genetic drift is more important than selection in determining the fate of new alleles. Small populations therefore accumulate deleterious mutations. Left unchecked, the effect of these fixed alleles is to reduce the reproductive capacity of a species, eventually to the point of extinction. New beneficial mutations, if fixed by selection, can restore some of this lost fitness. This paper derives the overall change in fitness due to fixation of new deleterious and beneficial alleles, as a function of the distribution of effects of new mutations and the effective population size. There is a critical effective size below which a population will on average decline in fitness, but above which beneficial mutations allow the population to persist. With reasonable estimates of the relevant parameters, this critical effective size is likely to be a few hundred. Furthermore, sexual selection can act to reduce the fixation probability of deleterious new mutations and increase the probability of fixing new beneficial mutations. Sexual selection can therefore reduce the risk of extinction of small populations.     

ECOLOGICAL GENETICS OF GYNODIOECY IN SILENE VULGARIS: RELATIVE FITNESS OF FEMALES AND HERMAPHRODITES DURING THE COLONIZATION PROCESS

Recent theoretical models have addressed the influence of metapopulation dynamics on the fitness of females and hermaphrodites in gynodioecious plants. In particular, selection is thought to favor hermaphrodites during population establishment because that sex should be less prone to pollen limitation, especially if self-fertilization is possible. However, inbreeding depression could limit this advantage. In this experimental study of Silene vulgaris, a weedy gynodioecious plant, the fitness of females and hermaphrodites was estimated from seed production in both mixed-sex populations and for individuals isolated from these populations by 20, 40, 80, or 160 m. In mixed populations females display statistically significant greater per capita seed production owing to higher capsule production and higher rates of seed germination. The fitness of both sexes declines with increasing isolation, but at different rates, such that in the 160-m treatment hermaphrodites are by far the more fit sex. Allozyme studies suggest that this differential decline is because the selfing rate in hermaphrodites increases as a function of isolation, at least partially compensating for a decline in the availability of outcross pollen. Overall, the negative effects of pollen limitation on females far outweighs the negative effects of inbreeding depression following selfing in hermaphrodites. Thus, extinction/recolonization dynamics would appear to favor hermaphrodites as long as seed dispersal events exceed some critical distance.     

Ontogenetic Scaling of Foraging Rates and the Dynamics of a Size-Structured Consumer-Resource Model

The ontogenetic scaling of foraging capacity strongly influences the competitive ability of differently sized individuals within a species. We develop a physiologically structured model to investigate the effect of different ontogenetic size scalings of the attack rate on the population dynamics of a consumer-resource system. The resource is assumed to reproduce continuously whereas the consumer only reproduces at discrete time instants. Depending on the ontogenetic size scaling, the model exhibited recruit-driven cycles, stable fixed point dynamics, non-recruit juvenile-driven cycles, quasiperiodic orbits, or chaotic dynamics. The kind of dynamics observed was related to the maintenance resource levels required of differently sized individuals. Stable fixed point dynamics was, besides at the persistence boundary, only observed when the minimum resource levels were similar for newborns and mature individuals. The tendency for large population fluctuations over a wide range of the parameter space was due to the consumer's pulsed reproduction. Background mortality and length of season were major determinants of cycle length. Model dynamics strongly resembled empirically observed dynamics from fish and Daphnia populations with respect to both patterns and mechanisms. The non-recruit juvenile-driven dynamics is suggested to occur in populations with size-dependent interference or preemptive competition like cicada populations.     

Mutation accumulation in populations of varying size: large effect mutations cause most mutational decline in the rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus under UV‐C radiation

Theory predicts that fitness decline via mutation accumulation will depend on population size, but there are only a few direct tests of this key idea. To gain a qualitative understanding of the fitness effect of new mutations, we performed a mutation accumulation experiment with the facultative sexual rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus at six different population sizes under UV‐C radiation. Lifetime reproduction assays conducted after ten and sixteen UV‐C radiations showed that while small populations lost fitness, fitness losses diminished rapidly with increasing population size. Populations kept as low as 10 individuals were able to maintain fitness close to the nonmutagenized populations throughout the experiment indicating that selection was able to remove the majority of large effect mutations in small populations. Although our results also seem to imply that small populations are effectively immune to mutational decay, we caution against this interpretation. Given sufficient time, populations of moderate to large size can experience declines in fitness from accumulating weakly deleterious mutations as demonstrated by fitness estimates from simulations and, tentatively, from a long‐term experiment with populations of moderate size. There is mounting evidence to suggest that mutational distributions contain a heavier tail of large effects. Our results suggest that this is also true when the mutational spectrum is altered by UV radiation.     

The pace of evolution across fitness valleys

How fast does a population evolve from one fitness peak to another? We study the dynamics of evolving, asexually reproducing populations in which a certain number of mutations jointly confer a fitness advantage. We consider the time until a population has evolved from one fitness peak to another one with a higher fitness. The order of mutations can either be fixed or random. If the order of mutations is fixed, then the population follows a metaphorical ridge, a single path. If the order of mutations is arbitrary, then there are many ways to evolve to the higher fitness state. We address the time required for fixation in such scenarios and study how it is affected by the order of mutations, the population size, the fitness values and the mutation rate.     

Genetic quality of individuals impacts population dynamics

Ample evidence exists that an increase in the inbreeding level of a population reduces the value of fitness components such as fecundity and survival. It does not follow, however, that these decreases in the components of fitness impact population dynamics in a way that increases extinction risk, because virtually all species produce far more offspring than can actually survive. We analyzed the effects of the genetic quality (mean fitness) of individuals on the population growth rate of seven natural populations in each of two species of wolf spider in the genus Rabidosa , statistically controlling for environmental factors. We show that populations of different sizes, and different inbreeding levels, differ in population dynamics for both species. Differences in population growth rates are especially pronounced during stressful environmental conditions (low food availability) and the stressful environment affects smaller populations (<500 individuals) disproportionately. Thus, even in an invertebrate with an extremely high potential growth rate and strong density-dependent mortality rates, genetic factors contribute directly to population dynamics and, therefore, to extinction risk. This is only the second study to demonstrate an impact of the genetic quality of individual genotypes on population dynamics in a wild population and the first to document strong inbreeding–environment interactions for fitness among populations. Endangered species typically exist at sizes of a few hundred individuals and human activities degrade habitats making them innately more stressful (e.g. global climate change). Therefore, the interaction between genetic factors and environmental stress has important implications for efforts aimed at conserving the Earth's biodiversity.     

Genetic loads under fitness‐dependent mutation rates

Abstract Although much theory depends on the genome‐wide rate of deleterious mutations, good estimates of the mutation rate are scarce and remain controversial. Furthermore, mutation rate may not be constant, and a recent study suggests that mutation rates are higher in mildly stressful environments. If mutation rate is a function of condition, then individuals carrying more mutations will tend to be in worse condition and therefore produce more mutations. Here I examine the mean fitnesses of sexual and asexual populations evolving under such condition‐dependent mutation rates. The equilibrium mean fitness of a sexual population depends on the shape of the curve relating fitness to mutation rate. If mutation rate declines synergistically with increasing condition the mean fitness will be much lower than if mutation rate declines at a diminishing rate. In contrast, asexual populations are less affected by condition‐dependent mutation rates. The equilibrium mean fitness of an asexual population only depends on the mutation rate of the individuals in the least loaded class. Because such individuals have high fitness and therefore a low mutation rate, asexual populations experience less genetic load than sexual populations, thus increasing the twofold cost of sex.     

Critical Mutation Rate Has an Exponential Dependence on Population Size in Haploid and Diploid Populations

Understanding the effect of population size on the key parameters of evolution is particularly important for populations nearing extinction. There are evolutionary pressures to evolve sequences that are both fit and robust. At high mutation rates, individuals with greater mutational robustness can outcompete those with higher fitness. This is survival-of-the-flattest, and has been observed in digital organisms, theoretically, in simulated RNA evolution, and in RNA viruses. We introduce an algorithmic method capable of determining the relationship between population size, the critical mutation rate at which individuals with greater robustness to mutation are favoured over individuals with greater fitness, and the error threshold. Verification for this method is provided against analytical models for the error threshold. We show that the critical mutation rate for increasing haploid population sizes can be approximated by an exponential function, with much lower mutation rates tolerated by small populations. This is in contrast to previous studies which identified that critical mutation rate was independent of population size. The algorithm is extended to diploid populations in a system modelled on the biological process of meiosis. The results confirm that the relationship remains exponential, but show that both the critical mutation rate and error threshold are lower for diploids, rather than higher as might have been expected. Analyzing the transition from critical mutation rate to error threshold provides an improved definition of critical mutation rate. Natural populations with their numbers in decline can be expected to lose genetic material in line with the exponential model, accelerating and potentially irreversibly advancing their decline, and this could potentially affect extinction, recovery and population management strategy. The effect of population size is particularly strong in small populations with 100 individuals or less; the exponential model has significant potential in aiding population management to prevent local (and global) extinction events.     

Inconsistency between different measures of sexual selection

Measuring the intensity of sexual selection is of fundamental importance to the study of sexual dimorphism, population dynamics, and speciation. Several indices, pools of individuals, and fitness proxies are used in the literature, yet their relative performances are strongly debated. Using 12 independent common lizard populations, we manipulated the adult sex ratio, a potentially important determinant of the intensity of sexual selection at a particular time and place. We investigated differences in the intensity of sexual selection, as estimated using three standard indices of sexual selection-the standardized selection gradient (β'), the opportunity of selection (I), and the Bateman gradient (βss)--calculated for different pools of individuals and different fitness proxies. We show that results based on estimates of I were the opposite of those derived from the other indices, whereas results based on estimates of β' were consistent with predictions derived from knowledge about the species' mating system. In addition, our estimates of the strength and direction of sexual selection depended on both the fitness proxy used and the pool of individuals included in the analysis. These observations demonstrate inconsistencies in distinct measures of sexual selection and underscore the need for caution when comparing studies and species.     

Reproductive consequences of population divergence through sexual conflict

Sexual-selection research increasingly focuses on reproductive conflicts between the sexes. Sexual conflict, divergent evolutionary interests of males and females, can cause rapid antagonistic coevolution of reproductive traits and is a potentially powerful speciation engine. This idea has theoretical and comparative support but remains controversial. Recent experimental evidence from Sepsis cynipsea indicates that populations with greater sexual conflict diverged more quickly; females were less likely to mate with males from other populations when flies had evolved under high levels of sexual conflict. The consequences of this divergence have not been addressed, so here we assess two female fitness surrogates after 44 generations of evolving (and diverging) under three different levels of sexual conflict. Longevity after copulation was negatively associated with the degree of sexual conflict under which flies evolved, and housing females with males also reduced female longevity. Female lifetime reproductive success (LRS) also tended to decrease with increasing conflict. However, there was evidence of either sexual-selection fitness benefits at intermediate levels of sexual selection and conflict or inbreeding depression in the smallest populations (those with the lowest levels of conflict). Nevertheless, the results indicate that there can be a fitness load associated with sexual selection and support claims that sexual conflict can lead to reproductive isolation.     

The consequences of polyandry for population viability,extinction risk and conservation

Polyandry, by elevating sexual conflict and selecting for reduced male care relative to monandry, may exacerbate the cost of sex and thereby seriously impact population fitness. On the other hand, polyandry has a number of possible population-level benefits over monandry, such as increased sexual selection leading to faster adaptation and a reduced mutation load. Here, we review existing information on how female fitness evolves under polyandry and how this influences population dynamics. In balance, it is far from clear whether polyandry has a net positive or negative effect on female fitness, but we also stress that its effects on individuals may not have visible demographic consequences. In populations that produce many more offspring than can possibly survive and breed, offspring gained or lost as a result of polyandry may not affect population size. Such ecological ‘masking’ of changes in population fitness could hide a response that only manifests under adverse environmental conditions (e.g. anthropogenic change). Surprisingly few studies have attempted to link mating system variation to population dynamics, and in general we urge researchers to consider the ecological consequences of evolutionary processes.     

Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in phenotypic traits predict the dynamics of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato mosquitoes, the most important vectors of human malaria. Anopheles gambiae dynamics were monitored over a six-month period of seasonal growth and decline. The population exhibited density-dependent feedback, with the carrying capacity being modified by rainfall (97% wAIC(c) support). The individual phenotypic expression of the maternal (p = 0.0001) and current (p = 0.040) body size positively influenced population growth. Our field-based evidence uniquely demonstrates that individual fitness can have population-level impacts and, furthermore, can mitigate the impact of exogenous drivers (e.g. rainfall) in species whose reproduction depends upon it. Once frontline interventions have suppressed mosquito densities, attempts to eliminate malaria with supplementary vector control tools may be attenuated by increased population growth and individual fitness.     

Germline Selection: Population Genetic Aspects of the Sexual/Asexual Life Cycle

Population geneticists make a distinction between sexual and asexual organisms depending on whether individuals inherit genes from one or two parents. When individual genes are considered, this distinction becomes less satisfactory for multicellular sexual organisms. Individual genes pass through numerous asexual mitotic cell divisions in the germline prior to meiosis and sexual recombination. The processes of mitotic mutation, mitotic crossing over, and mitotic gene conversion create genotypic diversity between diploid cells in the germline. Genes expressed in the germline whose products affect cell viability (such as many "housekeeping" enzymes) may be subjected to natural selection acting on this variability resulting in a non-Mendelian output of gametes. Such genes will be governed by the population genetics of the sexual/asexual life cycle rather than the conventional sexual/Mendelian life cycle. A model is developed to investigate some properties of the sexual/asexual life cycle. When appropriate parameter values were included in the model, it was found that mutation rates per locus per gamete may vary by a factor of up to 100 if selection acts in the germline. Sexual/asexual populations appear able to evolve to a genotype of higher fitness despite intervening genotypes of lower fitness, reducing the problems of underdominance and Wright's adaptive landscape encountered by purely sexual populations. As might be expected this ability is chiefly determined by the number of asexual mitotic cell divisions within the germline. The evolutionary consequences of "housekeeping" loci being governed by the dynamics of the sexual/asexual life cycle are considered.     

The Effects of Density Dependence and Immigration on Local Adaptation and Niche Evolution in a Black-Hole Sink Environment

We examine the effects of density dependence and immigration on local adaptation in a "black-hole sink" habitat, i.e., a habitat in which isolated populations of a species would tend to extinction but where a population is demographically maintained by recurrent one-way migration from a separate source habitat in which the species persists. Using a diploid, one-locus model of a discrete-generation sink population maintained by immigration from a fixed source population, we show that a locally favored allele will spread when rare in the sink if the absolute fitness (or, in some cases, the geometric-mean absolute fitness) of heterozygotes with the favored allele is above one in the sink habitat. With density dependence, the criterion for spread can depend on the rate of immigration, because immigration affects local densities and, hence, absolute fitness. Given the successful establishment of a locally favored allele, it will be maintained by a migration-selection balance and the resulting polymorphic population will be sustained deterministically with either stable or unstable dynamics. The densities of stable polymorphic populations tend to exceed densities that would be maintained in the absence of the favored allele. With strong density regulation, spread of the favored allele may destabilize population dynamics. Our analyses show that polymorphic populations which form subsequent to the establishment of favorable alleles have the capacity to persist deterministically without immigration. Finally, we examined the probabilistic rate at which new favored alleles arise and become established in a sink population. Our results suggest that favored alleles are established most readily at intermediate levels of immigration.