Effects of sudden air pressure changes on hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases in Prague, 1994–2009

Sudden weather changes have long been thought to be associated with negative impacts on human health, but relatively few studies have attempted to quantify these relationships. We use large 6-h changes in atmospheric pressure as a proxy for sudden weather changes and evaluate their association with hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Winter and summer seasons and positive and negative pressure changes are analysed separately, using data for the city of Prague (population 1.2 million) over a 16-year period (1994–2009). We found that sudden pressure drops in winter are associated with significant rise in hospital admissions. Increased CVD morbidity was observed neither for pressure drops in summer nor pressure increases in any season. Analysis of synoptic weather maps shows that large pressure drops in winter are associated with strong zonal flow and rapidly moving low-pressure systems with centres over northern Europe and atmospheric fronts affecting western and central Europe. Analysis of links between passages of strong atmospheric fronts and hospital admissions, however, shows that the links disappear if weather changes are characterised by frontal passages. Sudden pressure drops in winter are associated also with significant excess CVD mortality. As climate models project strengthening of zonal circulation in winter and increased frequency of windstorms, the negative effects of such weather phenomena and their possible changes in a warmer climate of the twenty-first century need to be better understood, particularly as their importance in inducing excess morbidity and mortality in winter may increase compared to cold spells.     

Relationships between sudden weather changes in summer and mortality in the Czech Republic, 1986–2005

The study examines the relationship between sudden changes in weather conditions in summer, represented by (1) sudden air temperature changes, (2) sudden atmospheric pressure changes, and (3) passages of strong atmospheric fronts; and variations in daily mortality in the population of the Czech Republic. The events are selected from data covering 1986–2005 and compared with the database of daily excess all-cause mortality for the whole population and persons aged 70 years and above. Relative deviations of mortality, i.e., ratios of the excess mortality to the expected number of deaths, were averaged over the selected events for days D−2 (2 days before a change) up to D+7 (7 days after), and their statistical significance was tested by means of the Monte Carlo method. We find that the periods around weather changes are associated with pronounced patterns in mortality: a significant increase in mortality is found after large temperature increases and on days of large pressure drops; a decrease in mortality (partly due to a harvesting effect) occurs after large temperature drops, pressure increases, and passages of strong cold fronts. The relationship to variations in excess mortality is better expressed for sudden air temperature/pressure changes than for passages of atmospheric fronts. The mortality effects are usually more pronounced in the age group 70 years and above. The impacts associated with large negative changes of pressure are statistically independent of the effects of temperature; the corresponding dummy variable is found to be a significant predictor in the ARIMA model for relative deviations of mortality. This suggests that sudden weather changes should be tested also in time series models for predicting excess mortality as they may enhance their performance.     

A comparative analysis of heat waves and associated mortality in St. Louis, Missouri – 1980 and 1995

 This research investigates heat-related mortality during the 1980 and 1995 heat waves in St. Louis, Missouri. St. Louis has a long history of extreme summer weather, and heat-related mortality is a public health concern. Heat waves are defined as days with apparent temperatures exceeding 40.6°C (105°F). The study uses a multivariate analysis to investigate the relationship between mortality and heat wave intensity, duration, and timing within the summer season. The heat wave of 1980 was more severe and had higher associated mortality than that of 1995. To learn if changing population characteristics, in addition to weather conditions, contributed to this difference, changes in population vulnerability between 1980 and 1995 are evaluated under simulated heat wave conditions. The findings show that St. Louis remains at risk of heat wave mortality. In addition, there is evidence that vulnerability has increased despite increased air-conditioning penetration and public health interventions. Received: 12 August 1997 / Revised: 12 January 1998 / Accepted: 13 February 1998     

Winter circulation weather types and hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in Galicia,Spain

The link between various pathologies and atmospheric conditions has been a constant topic of study over recent decades in many places across the world; knowing more about it enables us to pre-empt the worsening of certain diseases, thereby optimizing medical resources. This study looked specifically at the connections in winter between respiratory diseases and types of atmospheric weather conditions (Circulation Weather Types, CWT) in Galicia, a region in the north-western corner of the Iberian Peninsula. To do this, the study used hospital admission data associated with these pathologies as well as an automatic classification of weather types. The main result obtained was that weather types giving rise to an increase in admissions due to these diseases are those associated with cold, dry weather, such as those in the east and south-east, or anticyclonic types. A second peak was associated with humid, hotter weather, generally linked to south-west weather types. In the future, this result may help to forecast the increase in respiratory pathologies in the region some days in advance.     

Microclimate Impacts Survival and Prevalence of Phytophthora ramorum in Umbellularia californica,a Key Reservoir Host of Sudden Oak Death in Northern California Forests

Phytophthora ramorum, an invasive pathogen and the causal agent of Sudden Oak Death, has become established in mixed-evergreen and redwood forests in coastal northern California. While oak and tanoak mortality is the most visible indication of P. ramorum’s presence, epidemics are largely driven by the presence of bay laurel (Umbellularia californica), a reservoir host that supports both prolific sporulation in the winter wet season and survival during the summer dry season. In order to better understand how over-summer survival of the pathogen contributes to variability in the severity of annual epidemics, we monitored the viability of P. ramorum leaf infections over three years along with coincident microclimate. The proportion of symptomatic bay laurel leaves that contained viable infections decreased during the first summer dry season and remained low for the following two years, likely due to the absence of conducive wet season weather during the study period. Over-summer survival of P. ramorum was positively correlated with high percent canopy cover, less negative bay leaf water potential and few days exceeding 30°C but was not significantly different between mixed-evergreen and redwood forest ecosystems. Decreased summer survival of P. ramorum in exposed locations and during unusually hot summers likely contributes to the observed spatiotemporal heterogeneity of P. ramorum epidemics.     

The meteorological sensitivity of ischaemic heart disease mortality events in Birmingham, UK

Winter ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality events (ME) were identified in order to establish their degree of meteorological sensitivity. Sensitivity was evaluated using regression of surface meteorological and large-scale atmospheric circulation variables on daily mortality for each mortality event. Critical meteorological variables affecting IHD mortality appear to be local surface dry-bulb and dew-point temperature and large-scale southerly and westerly wind components, atmospheric pressure and vorticity. The rate of change and departure from normal conditions of these variables appear to be especially important for engendering IHD mortality events. Associated with IHD mortality are two broad types of weather conditions: (1) blustery westerly flows and rapidly changing weather from the west and (2) climatologically strong northeasterly to southeasterly flows of cold air, which bring rapidly changing and anomalous thermal conditions to the study area. The general atmospheric circulation patterns that produce these conditions are identified and the implications of results for weather and health studies are discussed. Received: 24 October 2000 / Revised: 16 April 2001 / Accepted: 18 April 2001     

Weather and childbirth: A further search for relationships

Previous attempts to find relationships between weather and parturition (childbirth) and its onset (the beginning of labor pains) have revealed, firstly, limited but statistically significant relationships between weather conditions much colder than the day before, with high winds and low pressure, and increased onsets; and secondly, increased numbers of childbirths during periods of atmospheric pressure rise (highly statistically significant). To test these findings, this study examined weather data coincident childbirth data from a hospital at Bryan-College Station, Texas (for a period of 30 cool months from 1987 to 1992). Tests for (1) days of cold fronts, (2) a day before and a day after the cold front, (3) days with large temperature increases, and (4) decreases from the day before revealed no relationship with mean daily rate of onset. Cold days with high winds and low pressure had significantly fewer onsets, a result that is the opposite of previous findings. The postulated relationship between periods of pressure rise and increased birth frequency was negative, i.e., significantly fewer births occurred at those times — again, the opposite of the apparent occurrence in an earlier study. The coincidence of diurnal variations in both atmospheric pressure and frequency of childbirths, was shown to account for fairly strong negative associations between the two variables. This same reasoning might explain the positive association found in an earlier study. A comparison has been made between childbirth and onset as the response variable, and the advantage is emphasized of using data from women whose labor is not induced.     

Day-to-day and seasonal fluctuations of urban mortality in Houston,Texas

Mortality, exclusive of that caused by accidents, for Houston, Texas, from 1971 to 1973 was studied for temporal patterns and for associations with daily maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, and precipitation. The sensitive and unbiased method of spectral analysis permitted the consideration of time lags between events. The findings revealed significant seasonal difference in mortality with the highest being in winter and more interestingly, strong lagged associations were found between short-term upswings in mortality and specific weather conditions, such as those characterized by low air temperature and high barometric pressure. In combination these weather features are typical of winter anticyclones. The peaks in mortality were evident after cold spells within periods of two weeks. Furthermore, episodes of elevated mortality also were observed subsequent to heat waves such as those during the summer of 1971.     

White-Tailed Deer,Weather and Predation: a New Understanding of Winter Severity for Predicting Deer Mortality

Variation in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) mortality during winter affects population growth in cold climates. Across the northern extent of their range, mortality increases with colder temperatures and snow. Few studies have examined the relationships between winter conditions and deer mortality, and no studies have concurrently studied this relationship for different ages of deer across multiple years and landscapes. We used recently developed cause-specific mortality models to evaluate temporal and age-class variation in deer mortality in farmland areas and compared to published results from forest areas in Wisconsin, USA, from 2011–2014. We then used temporally varying snow and temperature covariates to predict mortality trends using telemetry information from 860 deer. Cause-specific mortality in the farmland varied by age and year, similar to results from previous research in the forest. Human-related mortality was the leading cause of mortality in the farmland during most years and ranged from 4.3% to 10.3% for juveniles and 3.6% to 9.1% for adults from 2011–2014. Very little predation occurred in the farmland, and this differed from previous research in the forest where predation was the leading cause of mortality. During more severe winters (2013 and 2014), other mortality, usually associated with starvation, was the leading cause of mortality for juveniles in the farmland but not adults. In the forest, we found support for saturating effects of accumulated snow depth days >30.5 cm and accumulated temperature days >0°C on mortality. We also found support for the relationship of mortality with accumulated temperature days >0°C in the farmland but no relationship with snow depth. Deer tolerate sustained cold temperatures, but the timing of winter to spring transition is more important for deer survival in both forested and agricultural areas. In the absence of empirical survival information, managers can use our model to predict annual winter effects on deer survival, which can provide improved inference compared to traditional winter severity indices. Our results suggest changes in predator abundance may have minor influence on overwinter survival compared to winter weather. Based on mortality estimates from previous research, the highest predation rates on juvenile deer in the forest occurred when wolf (Canis lupus) counts were lowest and when wolf abundance was highest, juvenile deer predation rates were lowest. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

An analysis of the pollution problem in Slavonski Brod (eastern Croatia)

H2S, PM2.5, O3, NO2, SO2 and meteorological parameters such as temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed and wind direction were measured simultaneously in an eastern Croatian town called Slavonski Brod during the season winter/spring 2010. Emissions from the nearby cross-border (Bosnia and Herzegovina) oil refinery were identified as sources of temporary elevated concentrations of H2S. The maximum daily averages of PM2.5 concentrations during the winter period were as high as 240 microg m(-3) which is a value 10 times greater than the threshold prescribed by the World Health Organization. It is considered that the heating season, dense traffic, intense industrial activities and temperature inversion during stable weather conditions are prevailing contributors to higher winter concentrations of PM2.5. The results of the principal component analysis technique (PCA) have shown that lower air temperature, lower wind speed and higher relative humidity play a significant role in the winter pollution episodes. From a public health point of view, implementation of measures aimed at reducing the levels of H2S and PM2.5 should be considered.     

Winter North Atlantic Oscillation, temperature and ischaemic heart disease mortality in three English counties

As cold weather is an ischaemic heart disease (IHD) risk factor, year-to-year variations of the level of IHD mortality may be partly determined by inter-annual variations in winter climate. This paper investigates whether there is any association between the level of IHD mortality for three English counties and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which exerts a fundamental control on the nature of the winter climate over Western Europe. Correlation and regression analysis was used to explore the nature of the association between IHD mortality and a climate index (CI) that represents the interaction between the NAO and temperature across England for the winters 1974–1975 to 1989–1999. Statistically significant inverse associations between the CI and the level of IHD mortality were found. Generally, high levels of winter IHD mortality are associated with a negative CI, which represents winters with a strong negative phase of the NAO and anomalously low temperatures across England. Moreover, the nature of the CI in the early stages of winter appears to exert a fundamental control on the general level of winter IHD mortality. Because winter climate is able to explain a good proportion of the inter-annual variability of winter mortality, long-lead forecasting of winter IHD mortality appears to be a possibility. The integration of climate-based health forecasts into decision support tools for advanced general winter emergency service and capacity planning could form the basis of an effective adaptive strategy for coping with the health effects of harsh winters.     

The influence of weather on asthma in Nairobi

The frequency of bronchial asthma in Nairobi is related to meteorological parameters such as relative humidity, rainfall, dew point temperature, hours of sunshine and dry bulb temperature. Two seasons were taken for study: one cold season (May–August 1975) and one relatively warm season (December 1975–March 1976). It was found that significant correlations occurred at a lag of 2 or 3 days, but not at a lag of 4 or 5 days. Cold and wet weather during the cold season and heat of the day and dryness of the atmosphere during the warm season aggravate asthma in Nairobi.. The frequency of asthmatic attacks is about the same during the two seasons, but the intensity of suffering of a greater majority of patients is more in cold and wet weather than in warm and dry weather. 20–25% of the patients do not feel any relationship between weather and their asthmatic troubles. Nearly twice as many patients suffer from cough with the production of sputum in the cold season than in the warm season. About three times as many patients suffer from bronchospasm in the cold season than in the warm season. Severe asthmatic attacks occur almost equally in both the seasons.     

Nestling growth and mortality of Pied Flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca in relation to weather and breeding effort

The growth pattern and mortality of young Pied Flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca were studied to focus on the mechanisms and constraints behind the widely studied optimization of clutch size. The clutch sizes were modified, and the growth and survival of chicks from different clutch sizes were monitored along with the prevailing weather during the nestling period to detect the effect of weather on reproductive success. The weather conditions during the feeding period of the nestlings varied within a season as well as between breeding seasons. The prevailing weather markedly affected both the growth rate and the survival of chicks, yet, the effects of weather on growth were not greater in enlarged clutches. The impact of adverse weather was more pronounced in the later phases of nesting, when the food demand of a brood was highest. Brood reduction and total nest losses were more likely during extensive rainfall during the nestling phase and also in the enlarged clutches. Thus, weather is a very important determinant of reproductive success in this species. Weather conditions during the breeding season are unpredictable, however, and therefore brood reduction through sibling competition is a mechanism whereby brood size can be adjusted to the level the parents can rear under the prevailing conditions.     

The Deep Atmospheric Boundary Layer and Its Significance to the Stratosphere and Troposphere Exchange over the Tibetan Plateau

In this study the depth of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over the Tibetan Plateau was measured during a regional radiosonde observation campaign in 2008 and found to be deeper than indicated by previously measurements. Results indicate that during fair weather conditions on winter days, the top of the mixed layers can be up to 5 km above the ground (9.4 km above sea level). Measurements also show that the depth of the ABL is quite distinct for three different periods (winter, monsoon-onset, and monsoon seasons). Turbulence at the top of a deep mixing layer can rise up to the upper troposphere. As a consequence, as confirmed by trajectory analysis, interaction occurs between deep ABLs and the low tropopause during winter over the Tibetan Plateau.     

The aerobiology of Fusarium graminearum

Current knowledge of the aerobiology of Fusarium graminearum sensu lato is based on decades of published research documenting the processes of spore discharge, atmospheric transport, and deposition in this important pathogen of cereal crops worldwide. Spores from both local and more distant sources have been shown to cause infection in susceptible cereal crops when environmental conditions are favorable. Susceptible crops may be exposed throughout a growing season to airborne spores deposited in rain events and in night-time hours through gravitational settling. Given that spores deposited on cereal florets originate from distant as well as local sources, disease risk forecasts, based currently on weather favoring local spore production during the days before peak infection (i.e., initiation of crop flowering), might be improved by placing greater emphasis on local weather directly favoring infection at and following the time of flowering. Also, considering the genetic diversity of fungal spores introduced to local agricultural fields following atmospheric transport, crop breeders should select resistant varieties based on screening against a set of fungal isolates that represent the range of virulence observed in fungal populations across a broader geographic region. An increased understanding of the aerobiology of F. graminearum contributes to the overall knowledge of plant pathogen transport in the atmosphere.     

TRENDS IN MANATEE (TRICHECHUS MANATUS LATIROSTRIS) COUNTS AND HABITAT USE IN TAMPA BAY, 1987–1994: IMPLICATIONS FOR CONSERVATION

Aerial surveys ( n = 88) were used to document locations and count sightings of manatees ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ) in the inshore waters of Tampa Bay, Florida, between November 1987 and May 1994. We made 5,358 sightings of manatees in 1,958 groups. Calves represented 8% of the manatees sighted. Counts were significantly higher in winter ( = 79, n = 29 flights) than in non-winter ( = 46, n = 47) months. Counts of manatees in winter increased significantly during the study, but warm-season counts did not. Regression models demonstrated a relationship between counts and environmental factors. Year-round counts were related to air temperatures and seasons, with highest counts in winter. However, in the winter season, counts were significantly correlated only with wind speed, not air temperature. Yearround counts were predicted to be curvilinear with highest counts at 15°C average air temperature. Areas used differed with season: in cold weather, 76% of all sightings occurred in zones with warm-water sources. High-use areas were identified for summer months. Spatial filter analysis was used to compare manatee density in high-use areas between two two-year time periods. The data indicate that (1) manatee use of Tampa Bay was high and increasing in winter, (2) there are particular zones of the bay where conservation of manatees and habitat should be a priority, and (3) sufficient information has been collected for management agencies to develop and implement manatee protection plans.     

High Temperatures Result in Smaller Nurseries which Lower Reproduction of Pollinators and Parasites in a Brood Site Pollination Mutualism

In a nursery pollination mutualism, we asked whether environmental factors affected reproduction of mutualistic pollinators, non-mutualistic parasites and seed production via seasonal changes in plant traits such as inflorescence size and within-tree reproductive phenology. We examined seasonal variation in reproduction in Ficus racemosa community members that utilise enclosed inflorescences called syconia as nurseries. Temperature, relative humidity and rainfall defined four seasons: winter; hot days, cold nights; summer and wet seasons. Syconium volumes were highest in winter and lowest in summer, and affected syconium contents positively across all seasons. Greater transpiration from the nurseries was possibly responsible for smaller syconia in summer. The 3–5°C increase in mean temperatures between the cooler seasons and summer reduced fig wasp reproduction and increased seed production nearly two-fold. Yet, seed and pollinator progeny production were never negatively related in any season confirming the mutualistic fig–pollinator association across seasons. Non-pollinator parasites affected seed production negatively in some seasons, but had a surprisingly positive relationship with pollinators in most seasons. While within-tree reproductive phenology did not vary across seasons, its effect on syconium inhabitants varied with season. In all seasons, within-tree reproductive asynchrony affected parasite reproduction negatively, whereas it had a positive effect on pollinator reproduction in winter and a negative effect in summer. Seasonally variable syconium volumes probably caused the differential effect of within-tree reproductive phenology on pollinator reproduction. Within-tree reproductive asynchrony itself was positively affected by intra-tree variation in syconium contents and volume, creating a unique feedback loop which varied across seasons. Therefore, nursery size affected fig wasp reproduction, seed production and within-tree reproductive phenology via the feedback cycle in this system. Climatic factors affecting plant reproductive traits cause biotic relationships between plants, mutualists and parasites to vary seasonally and must be accorded greater attention, especially in the context of climate change.     

Winter Versus Summer Habitat Selection in a Threatened Ground Squirrel

Hibernation is a strategy many species employ to survive periods of thermal stress or resource shortage (e.g., harsh thermal conditions, food limitations) and habitat requirements of hibernating species may differ between summer (the active season) and winter (during hibernation). Accounting for seasonal differences in habitat affinities will help ensure that management actions are more beneficial and land-use policies are more appropriate. The northern Idaho ground squirrel (Urocitellus brunneus) is a federally listed threatened species that is in decline and hibernates for approximately 8 months per year. We collared northern Idaho ground squirrels in Adams County, Idaho from 2013–2017. The majority of northern Idaho ground squirrels we collared selected hibernacula outside of the areas they used during the active season. Furthermore, habitat features of hibernacula locations differed from habitat features of active-season areas. Hibernacula locations had greater canopy closure compared to active-season locations (36.9% and 7.0% canopy closure, respectively) and hibernaculum habitat features (particularly distance to nearest log) influenced overwinter survival. Our results suggest that recovery efforts for northern Idaho ground squirrels should include protection and management for the full range of habitat conditions used throughout summer and winter. More broadly, we emphasize the need to identify and protect habitat during all seasons because habitat requirements can differ substantially during different portions of an animal's annual cycle and effective conservation will require management of year-round habitat needs. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Investigation into mountain pine beetle above-canopy dispersion using weather radar and an atmospheric dispersion model

Above-canopy, wind-assisted mountain pine beetle (MPB) dispersion in British Columbia (BC) is examined during the summer 2005 beetle emergence period. Above-canopy dispersion is simulated by the HYSPLIT atmospheric dispersion model using back trajectories started from locations identified by clear-air returns from the Prince George BC weather radar station. The dispersion calculations are carried out over the 10 days showing the highest intensity of clear-air returns from the 2005 emergence season. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used to simulate the meteorological conditions during each of the 10 emergence days. Cumulative clear-air returns throughout each emergence day are used to estimate the distribution of beetle emergence times and atmospheric residence times. Evaluation of the WRF model output is presented using both surface and upper air observations. Evaluation of the HYSPLIT model is performed through a comparison of the vertical distribution of MPB observed in a previous study. A secondary HYSPLIT evaluation is performed using aerial surveys taken during the following summer (2006), which identify the previous years’ beetle-infested regions. Beetle flight distances from the time of beetle emergence to the time of peak clear-air returns are calculated for each trajectory, and the distribution of all flight distances is presented. The mean back trajectory distance is 20.2 km with a standard deviation of 13.6 km. These values represent the MPB flight distance during half of the beetle atmospheric residence time, and typical daily wind-assisted dispersion distances would be expected to be roughly double this value. Mean beetle residence time in the atmosphere over the 10 emergence events is found to be 3.2 h.     

The amounts and properties of transported air at two norwegian stations as functions of wind direction and weather type

Based on monthly means of climatic variables during the period 1937–65, the climate at two Norwegian meteorological stations in January and July was classified by principal component analysis. The new variables were interpreted as pairs of alternating weather types, or airmasses. Four airmasses were identified, covering 20–30% of the transported air at each station. The significance, properties and amounts of air transported by each airmass was calculated and distributed according to wind direction. Differences between air circulation pattern and airmass distribution and properties during the summer and winter season were pointed out. One of the major differences is the tendency to form high pressure over inland areas in winter vs. low pressure in the summer season.