Remarks on branching-extinction evolutionary cycles

We show in this paper that the evolution of cannibalistic consumer populations can be a never ending story involving alternating levels of polymorphism. More precisely, we show that a monomorphic population can evolve toward high levels of cannibalism until it reaches a so-called branching point, where the population splits into two sub-populations characterized by different, but initially very close, cannibalistic traits. Then, the two traits coevolve until the more cannibalistic sub-population undergoes evolutionary extinction. Finally, the remaining population evolves back to the branching point, thus closing an evolutionary cycle. The model on which the study is based is purely deterministic and derived through the adaptive dynamics approach. Evolutionary dynamics are investigated through numerical bifurcation analysis, applied both to the ecological (resident-mutant) model and to the evolutionary model. The general conclusion emerging from this study is that branching-extinction evolutionary cycles can be present in wide ranges of environmental and demographic parameters, so that their detection is of crucial importance when studying evolutionary dynamics.     

The evolution of juvenile-adult interactions in populations structured in age and space

We study the evolution of a spatially structured population with two age classes using spatial moment equations. In the model, adults can either help juveniles by increasing their survival, or adopt a cannibalistic behaviour and consume juveniles. While cannibalism is the sole evolutionary outcome when the population is well-mixed, both cannibalism and parental care can be evolutionarily stable if the population is viscous. Our analysis allows us to make two main technical points. First, we present a method to define invasion fitness in class-structured viscous populations, which allows us to apply adaptive dynamics methodology. Second, we show that ordinary pair approximation introduces an important quantitative bias in the evolutionary model, even on random networks. We propose a correction to the ordinary pair approximation that yields quantitative accuracy, and discuss how the bias associated with this approach is precisely what allows us to identify subtle aspects associated with the evolutionary dynamics of spatially structured populations.     

Eco‐evolutionary dynamics in a coevolving host–virus system

Eco‐evolutionary dynamics have been shown to be important for understanding population and community stability and their adaptive potential. However, coevolution in the framework of eco‐evolutionary theory has not been addressed directly. Combining experiments with an algal host and its viral parasite, and mathematical model analyses we show eco‐evolutionary dynamics in antagonistic coevolving populations. The interaction between antagonists initially resulted in arms race dynamics (ARD) with selective sweeps, causing oscillating host–virus population dynamics. However, ARD ended and populations stabilised after the evolution of a general resistant host, whereas a trade‐off between host resistance and growth then maintained host diversity over time (trade‐off driven dynamics). Most importantly, our study shows that the interaction between ecology and evolution had important consequences for the predictability of the mode and tempo of adaptive change and for the stability and adaptive potential of populations.     

Temporal variation can facilitate niche evolution in harsh sink environments

We examine the impact of temporal variation on adaptive evolution in "sink" environments, where a species encounters conditions outside its niche. Sink populations persist because of recurrent immigration from sources. Prior studies have highlighted the importance of demographic constraints on adaptive evolution in sinks and revealed that adaptation is less likely in harsher sinks. We examine two complementary models of population and evolutionary dynamics in sinks: a continuous-state quantitative-genetics model and an individual-based model. In the former, genetic variance is fixed; in the latter, genetic variance varies because of mutation, drift, and sampling. In both models, a population in a constant harsh sink environment can exist in alternative states: local maladaptation (phenotype comparable to immigrants from the source) or adaptation (phenotype near the local optimum). Temporal variation permits transitions between these states. We show that moderate amounts of temporal variation can facilitate adaptive evolution in sinks, permitting niche evolution, particularly for slow or autocorrelated variation. Such patterns of temporal variation may particularly pertain to sinks caused by biotic interactions (e.g., predation). Our results are relevant to the evolutionary dynamics of species' ranges, the fate of exotic invasive species, and the evolutionary emergence of infectious diseases into novel hosts.     

The implications of rapid eco‐evolutionary processes for biological control ‐ a review

Novel environmental conditions experienced by introduced species can drive rapid evolution of diverse traits. In turn, rapid evolution, both adaptive and non‐adaptive, can influence population size, growth rate, and other important ecological characteristics of populations. In addition, spatial evolutionary processes that arise from a combination of assortative mating between highly dispersive individuals at the expanding edge of populations and altered reproductive rates of those individuals can accelerate expansion speed. Growing experimental evidence shows that the effects of rapid evolution on ecological dynamics can be quite large, and thus it can affect establishment, persistence, and the distribution of populations. We review the experimental and theoretical literature on such eco‐evolutionary feedbacks and evaluate the implications of these processes for biological control. Experiments show that evolving populations can establish at higher rates and grow larger than non‐evolving populations. However, non‐adaptive processes, such as genetic drift and inbreeding depression can also lead to reduced fitness and declines in population size. Spatial evolutionary processes can increase spread rates and change the fitness of individuals at the expansion front. These examples demonstrate the power of eco‐evolutionary dynamics and indicate that evolution is likely more important in biocontrol programs than previously realized. We discuss how this knowledge can be used to enhance efficacy of biological control.     

Evolution to alternative levels of stable diversity leaves areas of niche space unexplored

One of the oldest and most persistent questions in ecology and evolution is whether natural communities tend to evolve toward saturation and maximal diversity. Robert MacArthur’s classical theory of niche packing and the theory of adaptive radiations both imply that populations will diversify and fully partition any available niche space. However, the saturation of natural populations is still very much an open area of debate and investigation. Additionally, recent evolutionary theory suggests the existence of alternative evolutionary stable states (ESSs), which implies that some stable communities may not be fully saturated. Using models with classical Lotka-Volterra ecological dynamics and three formulations of evolutionary dynamics (a model using adaptive dynamics, an individual-based model, and a partial differential equation model), we show that following an adaptive radiation, communities can often get stuck in low diversity states when limited by mutations of small phenotypic effect. These low diversity metastable states can also be maintained by limited resources and finite population sizes. When small mutations and finite populations are considered together, it is clear that despite the presence of higher-diversity stable states, natural populations are likely not fully saturating their environment and leaving potential niche space unfilled. Additionally, within-species variation can further reduce community diversity from levels predicted by models that assume species-level homogeneity.     

On the evolutionary stability of sink populations

The evolution of adaptive behaviours can influence population dynamics. Conversely, population dynamics can affect both the rate and direction of adaptive evolution. This paper examines reasons why sink populations – populations maintained by immigration, preventing local extinction – might persist in the habitat repertoire of a species over evolutionary time-scales. Two such reasons correspond to standard explanations for deviations from an ideal free habitat distribution: organisms may not be free to settle in whichever habitat has the highest potential fitness, and may be constrained by costs, perceptual limitations, or mode of dispersal in the acuity of their habitat selectivity. Here, I argue that a third general reason for persistent sink populations is provided by unstable population dynamics in source habitats. I present a simple model illustrating how use of a sink habitat may be selectively advantageous, when a source population has unstable dynamics (which necessarily reflects temporal variation in local fitnesses). Species with unstable local dynamics in high-quality habitats should be selected to utilize a broader range of habitats than species with stable local dynamics, and in particular in some circumstances should utilize sink habitats. This observation has implications for the direction of niche evolution, and the likelihood of niche conservatism.     

The adaptive dynamics of function-valued traits

This study extends the framework of adaptive dynamics to function-valued traits. Such adaptive traits naturally arise in a great variety of settings: variable or heterogeneous environments, age-structured populations, phenotypic plasticity, patterns of growth and form, resource gradients, and in many other areas of evolutionary ecology. Adaptive dynamics theory allows analysing the long-term evolution of such traits under the density-dependent and frequency-dependent selection pressures resulting from feedback between evolving populations and their ecological environment. Starting from individual-based considerations, we derive equations describing the expected dynamics of a function-valued trait in asexually reproducing populations under mutation-limited evolution, thus generalizing the canonical equation of adaptive dynamics to function-valued traits. We explain in detail how to account for various kinds of evolutionary constraints on the adaptive dynamics of function-valued traits. To illustrate the utility of our approach, we present applications to two specific examples that address, respectively, the evolution of metabolic investment strategies along resource gradients, and the evolution of seasonal flowering schedules in temporally varying environments.     

How phenotypic convergence arises in experimental evolution

Evolutionary convergence is a core issue in the study of adaptive evolution, as well as a highly debated topic at present. Few studies have analyzed this issue using a “real‐time” or evolutionary trajectory approach. Do populations that are initially differentiated converge to a similar adaptive state when experiencing a common novel environment? Drosophila subobscura populations founded from different locations and years showed initial differences and variation in evolutionary rates in several traits during short‐term (～20 generations) laboratory adaptation. Here, we extend that analysis to 40 more generations to analyze (1) how differences in evolutionary dynamics among populations change between shorter and longer time spans, and (2) whether evolutionary convergence occurs after 60 generations of evolution in a common environment. We found substantial variation in longer term evolutionary trajectories and differences between short‐ and longer term evolutionary dynamics. Although we observed pervasive patterns of convergence toward the character values of long‐established populations, populations still remain differentiated for several traits at the final generations analyzed. This pattern might involve transient divergence, as we report in some cases, indicating that more generations should lead to final convergence. These findings highlight the importance of longer term studies for understanding convergent evolution.     

Dynamics of Adaptation in Spatially Heterogeneous Metapopulations

The selection pressure experienced by organisms often varies across the species range. It is hence crucial to characterise the link between environmental spatial heterogeneity and the adaptive dynamics of species or populations. We address this issue by studying the phenotypic evolution of a spatial metapopulation using an adaptive dynamics approach. The singular strategy is found to be the mean of the optimal phenotypes in each habitat with larger weights for habitats present in large and well connected patches. The presence of spatial clusters of habitats in the metapopulation is found to facilitate specialisation and to increase both the level of adaptation and the evolutionary speed of the population when dispersal is limited. By showing that spatial structures are crucial in determining the specialisation level and the evolutionary speed of a population, our results give insight into the influence of spatial heterogeneity on the niche breadth of species.     

Emergence of asymmetry in evolution

We investigate symmetry-breaking bifurcation patterns in evolution in the framework of adaptive dynamics (AD). We define weak and strong symmetry. The former applies for populations where only the simultaneous reflection of all individuals is an invariant transformation. The symmetry is strong in populations where reflection of some, but not all, individuals leaves the situation unchanged. We show that in case of weak symmetry evolutionary branching can lead to the emergence of two asymmetric variants, which are mirror images of each other, and the loss of the symmetric ancestor. We also show that in case of strong symmetry, evolutionary branching can occur into a symmetric and an asymmetric variant, both of which survive. The latter, asymmetric branching differs from the generic branching patterns of AD, which is always symmetric. We discuss biological examples for weak and strong symmetries and a specific model producing the new kind of branching.     

Transmission rates and adaptive evolution of pathogens in sympatric heterogeneous plant populations

Diversification in agricultural cropping patterns is widely practised to delay the build-up of virulent races that can overcome host resistance in pathogen populations. This can lead to balanced polymorphism, but the long-term consequences of this strategy for the evolution of crop pathogen populations are still unclear. The widespread occurrence of sibling species and reproductively isolated sub-species among fungal and oomycete plant pathogens suggests that evolutionary divergence is common. This paper develops a mathematical model of host-pathogen interactions using a simple framework of two hosts to analyse the influences of sympatric host heterogeneity on the long-term evolutionary behaviour of plant pathogens. Using adaptive dynamics, which assumes that sequential mutations induce small changes in pathogen fitness, we show that evolutionary outcomes strongly depend on the shape of the trade-off curve between pathogen transmission on sympatric hosts. In particular, we determine the conditions under which the evolutionary branching of a monomorphic into a dimorphic population occurs, as well as the conditions that lead to the evolution of specialist (single host range) or generalist (multiple host range) pathogen populations.     

Rapid climate change and the rate of adaptation: insight from experimental quantitative genetics

CONTENTS: Summary 752 I. Introduction 752 II. Will migration be enough? 753 III. Can adaptation proceed fast enough? 754 IV. Fitness links demographic and evolutionary processes 755 V. Experimental studies: what do they tell us and how can we improve them? 756 VI. Predicting evolutionary change based on genetic variation and natural selection 757 VII. The chronosequence approach 758 VIII. Resurrection of ancestral propagules 759 IX. The mean and variance in fitness, a link between genetics and demography 760 X. Conclusions 762 Acknowledgements 762 References 762 SUMMARY: Evolution proceeds unceasingly in all biological populations. It is clear that climate-driven evolution has molded plants in deep time and within extant populations. However, it is less certain whether adaptive evolution can proceed sufficiently rapidly to maintain the fitness and demographic stability of populations subjected to exceptionally rapid contemporary climate change. Here, we consider this question, drawing on current evidence on the rate of plant range shifts and the potential for an adaptive evolutionary response. We emphasize advances in understanding based on theoretical studies that model interacting evolutionary processes, and we provide an overview of quantitative genetic approaches that can parameterize these models to provide more meaningful predictions of the dynamic interplay between genetics, demography and evolution. We outline further research that can clarify both the adaptive potential of plant populations as climate continues to change and the role played by ongoing adaptation in their persistence.     

An Evolutionary Dynamics Model Adapted to Eusocial Insects

This study aims to better understand the evolutionary processes allowing species coexistence in eusocial insect communities. We develop a mathematical model that applies adaptive dynamics theory to the evolutionary dynamics of eusocial insects, focusing on the colony as the unit of selection. The model links long-term evolutionary processes to ecological interactions among colonies and seasonal worker production within the colony. Colony population dynamics is defined by both worker production and colony reproduction. Random mutations occur in strategies, and mutant colonies enter the community. The interactions of colonies at the ecological timescale drive the evolution of strategies at the evolutionary timescale by natural selection. This model is used to study two specific traits in ants: worker body size and the degree of collective foraging. For both traits, trade-offs in competitive ability and other fitness components allows to determine conditions in which selection becomes disruptive. Our results illustrate that asymmetric competition underpins diversity in ant communities.     

Fitness recovery and compensatory evolution in natural mutant lines of C. elegans

Deleterious mutation accumulation plays a central role in evolutionary genetics, conservation biology, human health, and evolutionary medicine (e.g., methods of viral attenuation for live vaccines). It is therefore important to understand whether and how quickly populations with accumulated deleterious mutational loads can recover fitness through adaptive evolution. We used laboratory experimental evolution with four long-term mutation-accumulation (MA) lines of Caenorhabditis elegans nematodes to study the dynamics of such fitness evolution. We previously showed that when homozygous mutant populations are evolved in large population sizes, they can rapidly achieve wild-type fitness through the accumulation of new beneficial or compensatory epistatic mutations. Here, we expand this approach to demonstrate that when replicate lineages are initiated from the same mutant genotype, phenotypic evolution is only sometimes repeatable. MA genotypes that recovered ancestral fitness in the previous experiment did not always do so here. Further, the pattern of adaptive evolution in independently evolved replicates was contingent upon the MA genotype and varied among fitness-related traits. Our findings suggest that new beneficial mutations can drive rapid fitness evolution, but that the adaptive process is rendered somewhat unpredictable by its susceptibility to chance events and sensitivity to the evolutionary history of the starting population.     

Ecological consequences of evolution in plant defenses in a metacommunity

Dispersal can affect the assembly of local communities in a metacommunity as well as evolution of local populations in a metapopulation. These two processes may also affect each other in ways that have not yet been well studied and that may have novel effects on community structure. Here, we illustrate the interaction of these two processes on community structure with a model of adaptive evolutionary dynamics of plant defenses in a metacommunity food web involving multiple patches along a productivity gradient. We find an enhanced suite of adaptive plant types in our metacommunity model than is predicted in the absence of dispersal. We also find that this, and the movement of nutrients among patches via dispersal, alters patterns of food web architecture, trophic structure and diversity along the productivity gradient. Overall, our model illustrates that evolutionary and metacommunity dynamics may influence communities in complex interactive ways that may not be predicted by models that ignore either of these types of processes.     

Ecological causes of morphological evolution in the three‐spined stickleback

The central assumption of evolutionary theory is that natural selection drives the adaptation of populations to local environmental conditions, resulting in the evolution of adaptive phenotypes. The three‐spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) displays remarkable phenotypic variation, offering an unusually tractable model for understanding the ecological mechanisms underpinning adaptive evolutionary change. Using populations on North Uist, Scotland we investigated the role of predation pressure and calcium limitation on the adaptive evolution of stickleback morphology and behavior. Dissolved calcium was a significant predictor of plate and spine morph, while predator abundance was not. Stickleback latency to emerge from a refuge varied with morph, with populations with highly reduced plates and spines and high predation risk less bold. Our findings support strong directional selection in three‐spined stickleback evolution, driven by multiple selective agents.     

Consequences of plant-herbivore coevolution on the dynamics and functioning of ecosystems

The potential consequences of plant-herbivore coevolution for ecosystem functioning are investigated using a simple nutrient-limited ecosystem model in which plant and herbivore traits are subject to adaptive dynamics. Although the ecological model is very simple and always reaches a stable equilibrium in the absence of evolution, coevolution can generate a great diversity of dynamical behaviors. The evolutionary dynamics can lead to a stable equilibrium. If the evolution of plants is fast enough, certain values of the trade-off parameters lead to complex evolutionary cycles bounded by physiological constraints. The dynamical behavior of the model is very different when the dynamics of inorganic nutrient is ignored and plant competition is modeled by a logistic growth function. This emphasizes the importance of including explicit nutrient dynamics in studies of plant-herbivore coevolution.     

Multiregional, not multiple origins

Multiregional evolution is a model to account for the pattern of human evolution in the Pleistocene. The underlying hypothesis is that a worldwide network of genic exchanges, between evolving human populations that continually divide and reticulate, provides a frame of population interconnections that allows both species-wide evolutionary change and local distinctions and differentiation. "Multiregional" does not mean independent multiple origins, ancient divergence of modern populations, simultaneous appearance of adaptive characters in different regions, or parallel evolution. A valid understanding of multiregional evolution would go a long way toward reducing the modern human origins controversy.