气候变化情景下基于最大熵模型的青海云杉潜在分布格局模拟

青海云杉(Picea crassifolia)是我国青藏高原东北缘特有树种,在维系我国西北地区生态平衡、水土保持、水源涵养和生物多样性等方面发挥着重要作用。基于其分布范围内的69个地理分布样点,利用最大熵(Maxent)模型对现实气候条件下青海云杉的潜在分布及其分布的主导气候因子进行分析,同时结合3种大气环流模型模拟青海云杉在3种气候变化情景(温室气候排放量不同)下未来2050s和2080s潜在分布区的变化。结果表明:Maxent模型对青海云杉潜在分布区的预测具有极高的准确度,所有模型的平均受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC测试值)均高于0.99;Jackknife检验和气候因子响应曲线表明年最低降雨量是限制青海云杉分布的主导因子;当前青海云杉的潜在分布区主要集中于青海东部、甘肃东南部、宁夏大部分地区、西藏东部、四川西部山区以及陕西、新疆和内蒙古部分地区。在未来3种增温情景下,青海云杉在2050s和2080s的潜在分布总面积与当前相比变化不明显,但不同适生等级的潜在分布面积变化较大,其中,中度适生区和低度适生区受气候增温影响显著,中度增温下这些区域在2080s的面积明显增大,而高度适生区(核心分布)则在所有增温情景下均呈缩小趋势。同时,在未来3种增温情景下,青海云杉在2050s和2080s的潜在分布区有向北移动趋势,但其心分布区域(高度适生区)仍然以青海东部、甘肃北部为主,无明显变迁趋势。从气候因素角度考虑,本研究表明未来气候变化情景下,青海云杉依然在西部高山地区,特别是作为我国重要生态屏障的祁连山、贺兰山等山区具有重要的经济价值并将持续其生态服务功能。     

中国天山花楸适生区预测及其对气候变化的响应

气候变化对物种分布的影响是生物地理学研究的热点问题之一。以我国新疆民族药用植物天山花楸为研究对象, 基于69条分布记录和筛选后的7个环境变量, 利用Maxent模型对该物种当前和未来的适生分布区进行预测, 综合应用气候变量的贡献率及置换重要值比较、刀切法(Jackknife)评估制约天山花楸现代分布的主要因子, 并探讨未来不同气候情景下该物种分布格局的变化趋势。结果表明: 现代适宜分布区主要集中在新疆西北部、青海东部、甘肃中部及宁夏、陕西、山西的部分区域; 影响天山花楸地理分布的主要气候因子为降水和气温, 且降水因子更重要; 未来气候变暖趋势下天山花楸适生区向高纬度地区移动。到21世纪50年代, 天山花楸适生区面积在RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5的情景下均有所增加, 到70年代时增幅有所降低, 在中、高浓度情景下减幅更大。上述研究结果对于在适生区开展天山花楸资源保护和引种栽培具有重要的指导意义。     

新疆千里光Senecio jacobaea在中国的适生区预测

【背景】菊科植物新疆千里光原产于欧亚大陆,在北美和澳洲为入侵植物,目前在中国只有新疆有分布记录。新疆千里光一旦成为入侵植物,将对农业、畜牧业和人类健康都可能产生危害,所以需要评估其在中国的扩散趋势。【方法】搜集新疆千里光在中国和世界其他地区的分布记录,结合当前和未来(2050年)气候条件下19种生物气候变量,应用Maxent模型和Diva Gis软件,定量预测新疆千里光在中国目前和未来的潜在分布区域;并通过接受者操作特征曲线(ROC)分析法对模型进行精度检验。另外,通过Maxent给出新疆千里光在欧洲(原产地)、北美洲和大洋洲(入侵地)以及中国等4个分布区的年均温度和年均降水量的气候阈值。【结果】用中国和全球分布的数据预测的结果有些差异。前者结果表明除了新疆地区,其他省份几乎没有新疆千里光的适生区;而后者显示在中国其他几个省份也有可能分布,且在甘肃四川交界处有较高适生性。前者模型精确度较高,但2个结果都显示新疆千里光在中国目前和未来的分布区大部分还是在新疆地区。中国分布区年均温度和年均降水量的阈值比其他2个地区都低。【结论与意义】新疆千里光在当前和未来气候条件下在中国未来的扩散趋势较弱,基本局限于新疆地区。用中国分布数据预测优于全球分布数据预测结果,新疆千里光不同分布区的气候阈值的差异揭示分布于中国的新疆千里光与其他地区的种群的生态位有所不同,可能是一个新的亚种,希望未来能进行进一步的研究。     

基于MaxEnt模型的川西高原松茸气候生态适宜性与潜在分布

通过野外实地调查,结合文献中松茸分布数据,采用生态位因子分析和最大熵模型对川西高原松茸的分布规律及适生区范围进行模拟和验证,分析气候因子与动态分布之间的关系,预测未来松茸适生区的变化。结果表明: 模型训练集和验证集曲线下面积(AUC)值均＞0.90,模型预测结果极准确。影响松茸潜在分布的环境变量主要有最冷月最低温度、最冷季雨量、气温年温差等气候因子和土壤类型,累计贡献率达90.3%。松茸适宜分布区的生态位参数为: 最冷月最低温度-18.5～-5.4 ℃、最冷季雨量15.7 mm以下、气温年温差39.5～45 ℃、土壤类型为半淋溶土(包括燥红土、褐土、灰褐土、黑土和灰色森林土)。川西高原松茸的适生区分布在高原西南部、南部、中部、东部的海拔1900～3600 m地区。雅江、乡城、康定、九龙、稻城、理塘、巴塘、丹巴、马尔康、小金、金川、理县、茂县等县(市)的部分乡镇松茸适生指数较高,得荣、道孚、新龙、炉霍、白玉、泸定、壤塘、汶川、黑水、九寨沟等县(市)的部分乡镇有松茸中、低适生区存在。适生区破碎分散,依河流和山脉走向呈片状或枝状不连续分布,中适生区与高适生区相连,低适生区是高、中适生区的延伸。未来气候变化对川西高原松茸生长有利,气候适生区总体呈增加趋势,低海拔岷江流域受影响程度高于高海拔地区。     

气候变化下阔叶山麦冬的潜在适生区预测

基于MaxEnt最大熵模型和ArcGIS10.2软件,利用阔叶山麦冬(Liriope muscari (Decne.) L.H.Bailey)205条有效分布记录和10个生物气候变量,对现代和未来4个时期ssp245和ssp585气候情景下阔叶山麦冬潜在适生区进行预测,评估了制约阔叶山麦冬现代潜在分布区的主导气候因子。结果表明,训练及测试的AUC值范围分别为0.9861—0.9877和0.9849—0.9869,阔叶山麦冬现代潜在适生区的预测结果可信度较高。现代气候条件下阔叶山麦冬的潜在适生区主要分布于中国江西、安徽、广西、浙江、重庆及四川东部等地;总适生区面积占比为0.73%,其中高度、中度、一般适和低度适生区分别为0.08%、0.12%、0.17%和0.36%。影响其现代潜在适生区分布的主导气候因子为温度(bio11、bio10和bio4)和降水量(bio18和bio16)。未来4个时期2种气候情景下阔叶山麦冬适生区总面积较现代呈下降趋势,特别是在ssp585情景下,2090s时期适生区面积减少达到了0.68%。以上结果都为阔叶山麦冬的栽培、引种以及进一步探究单个气候因子对阔叶山麦...     

末次盛冰期以来气候变化对中国山荆子分布格局的影响

山荆子(Malus baccata (L.) Borkh.)具有较高的观赏、经济价值,是苹果属(Malus)植物的重要种质资源。本文利用ENMeval数据包调整Max Ent模型的调控倍频和特征组合参数,根据602条现代分布记录和筛选的8个生物气候变量,模拟预测山荆子在末次盛冰期、中全新世、现代、2070年(RCP 8.5) 4个时期的潜在分布区。采用贡献率、置换重要值比较和刀切法进行检验,综合分析各环境变量对山荆子潜在地理分布的影响。结果显示,当RM值为2、FC为LQHPT时,Max Ent模型的复杂度和过拟合程度较低,该参数下AUC值的均值为0.9272±0.0019,表明模型预测极准确;山荆子现代高度适生区为山西的太行山、管涔山和吕梁山,吉林、辽宁东北部,陕甘宁交界处,河北北部,鲁中南地区;末次盛冰期山荆子适生区整体上显著向东南偏移,北方的高度适生区消失;中全新世适生区轮廓与现代基本一致,但略微有向高海拔地区收缩的趋势; 2070年山荆子在国内的适生区将向高海拔地区急剧收缩,中度、高度适生区面积急剧减少;山荆子现代潜在地理分布受温度和降水因子的共同影响,但后者的影响更大。本研究预测气候变化对山荆子分布范围的影响,将对其种质资源保护和管理提供重要的参考价值。     

西南地区红花龙胆分布格局模拟与气候变化影响评价

应用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型,基于230条分布记录及33个气候因子数据,模拟全新世中期(约6000年前)、当前时期(1950—2000年)和未来(2050s、2070s)气候条件下,红花龙胆西南地区的潜在分布范围;结合多元统计分析和ArcGIS空间分析,筛选影响物种分布的关键气候因子,探讨不同分布区对气候变化的敏感性.结果表明: 模型训练集AUC值为0.942,验证集AUC值为0.849,表明模型预测的准确性较高.5个气候因子(7月最高气温、8月最低气温、昼夜温差与年温差比值、7月最低气温和6月最低气温)对模型贡献最大,累计贡献率达59.9%.随未来气候变化,红花龙胆适生区将呈现先减少后增加的变化趋势,在RCP 8.5情景下,至2070s阶段,西南地区红花龙胆适宜生境总面积与当前气候条件相比减少15.0%,但云南境内适生区和高适生区面积较当前分别增加32.8%和32.7%.红花龙胆适宜生长于温暖、湿润的气候条件下,气候变暖明显影响着适宜生境的面积和范围,尤其低海拔分布区对气候变化较敏感,适宜生境退缩严重,而高海拔地区由于降水、温度条件的改善适宜生境有所增加.随着全球气候的变化,未来西南地区红花龙胆主要分布区可能向西迁移,并向更高海拔扩张.     

气候变暖情境下松材线虫在我国的适生区范围

基于历史气象数据(1971—2000),利用CLIMEX软件对松材线虫Bursaphelenchus xylophilus在我国的潜在适生区进行了预测,结果显示:松材线虫在我国的适生范围广、适生程度高,全国除黑龙江、吉林省无适生区外,其余各省市区均有适生区域,其中约2/3的适生区为高度适生区,覆盖整个南方地区,分布北界达内蒙古通辽地区,西至西藏的日喀则地区;进一步结合英国气候变化研究中心提供的气候变暖情境下未来气候模拟数据TYNSC2.0,利用CLIMEX软件预测出未来30年内(2010-2039)松材线虫在我国的潜在适生区,结果发现同历史气候条件下相比,未来30年内松材线虫在我国的适生分布区将呈现范围增加、适生程度增加、向北扩散的趋势,其中分布北界将到达吉林省西部,分布西界则与历史气候条件下预测结果相差无几。     

气候变化下耐旱藓类连轴藓属在新疆的分布模拟

该研究基于耐旱藓类连轴藓属5种53条在新疆的地理分布信息和7个气候变量,利用最大熵模型和ArcGIS 10.2软件,分别模拟现代气候和未来气候情景下连轴藓属在新疆的适生分布区,为探讨气候变化对干旱、半干旱区苔藓植物物种分布的影响提供参考。结果表明:(1)Maxent模型预测连轴藓属在新疆适生区的准确性非常高(AUC=0.957)。(2)年降雨量、最干季度降雨量和最暖季度平均气温是影响连轴藓属分布的主要气候因子。(3)连轴藓属在新疆的适生区主要集中在阿尔泰山和天山沿线,在未来(2061~2080年)气候情景下,连轴藓属分布面积将比现代气候下减少10.39%,其绝大部分现有南部适生区将丧失。     

基于CLIMEX预测黑角负泥虫在中国的潜在地理分布

【目的】研究黑角负泥虫在我国的潜在地理分布及其入侵风险程度。【方法】运用适生性分析软件CLIMEX 4. 0对黑角负泥虫在我国的潜在地理分布进行模拟,将模拟结果在地理信息系统软件Arc GIS10.2下进行插值分析,并绘制黑角负泥虫的潜在地理分布示意图。【结果】黑角负泥虫高度适生区主要集中在我国的华北平原、黄土高原南部及云贵高原北部;中度适生区主要集中在华北平原北部、黄土高原北部及东北平原地区;低度适生区则多分布在中高度适生区的过渡区域及我国新疆天山南北两侧地区。限制黑角负泥虫在我国分布的主要胁迫因素为干胁迫和冷胁迫,且其影响的区域主要分布在我国的西北和东北地区。【结论】黑角负泥虫在我国潜在地理分布范围广,适生程度高。目前,黑角负泥虫已经传播到我国的新疆和内蒙古等省(自治区),但由于地理隔离的存在和自身较弱的扩散条件,并没有传入气候适宜度较高的东部地区。随着东西部经济交流的不断增多,黑角负泥虫随人为因素进一步扩散的可能性将不断增加。因此,建议检疫部门做好检疫工作,严防黑角负泥虫的传播扩散。     

Sex differences in height and sitting height in the Belgian population

Sex differences in growth were studied in a longitudinal study of 39 boys and 31 girls for sitting height. Individual growth patterns were determined by means of Preece Baines model 1. The results showed no significant bias in the fits of height and sitting height in boys and girls. Girls fits were significantly better than those of the boys for both height and sitting height. Univariate analysis by means of Mann-Whitney test showed significant sex differences for all function and biological parameters of height and sitting height excepted for s₁ parameter (the rate constant controlling pubertal velocity). Linear discriminant analysis revealed that the strongest sex differences for the timing and size parameters at adolescent. Peak velocity at adolescent was slightly less discriminating between the two sexes and velocity at take-off showed the least sex difference. These trends were similar for height and sitting height. Decomposition of sex differences in adult size showed that the major contributor to adult the sex differences is the effect of the later onset of the adolescent growth spurt in boys than in girls. Sex differences in adult phenotypes of height and sitting height are to a slightly lesser extent due to the greater adolescent gain in boys while prepubertal sex differences are almost negligible.     

Vertical growth of the anterior face and cranium in inner city Negro children

A longitudinal cephalometric study was conducted on the vertical growth of the cranium and anterior face on 60 inner city American Negro children, an equal number of boys and girls from four to nine years. Three vertical measurements were used for the purpose of this study. The head height was measured from sellion to bregma, bony nasal height from nasion to anterior nasal spine, and lower facial height from anterior nasal spine and lower facial height from anterior nasal spine to menton. The data were analyzed at annual ages and observations made relative to the growth trends. The findings of this study were compared with those on Caucasian children. No significant statistical difference was found in the mean head (cranial vault) height between the Negro and Caucasian children. The mean bony nasal height expressed as a percentage of subnasal height was found to be less in the Negro children. The difference decreased with age. The annual increment of growth in head height was greater from four to seven years than from seven to nine years. The findings are considered to imply that severe malnutrition may influence child growth.     

Mathematical Formulations for the Height/Weight Tables of U.K. Children after Tanner,Whitehouse and Takaishi

Models of human height and weight growth and their interrelations are applied to the height/weight tables for British children given by Tanner, Whitehouse and Takaishi (1966) in two elaborate papers. Approximations using nonlinear regressions yield very satisfying results for height/age and log weight/height relations as well as the velocities of height and weight. Graphs with the basic data and the approximated growth curves are added.     

Potential differences in seed dispersals of low‐height vegetation between single element and windbreak‐like clumps

Wind speed is one of the most important factors for seed wind dispersal. A wind speed reduction region, which could be influenced by vegetation arrangement, will form in the lee of vegetation and therefore affects the seed dispersal. Here, by taking shrub as an example, quantitative differences in seed dispersals of low vegetation between single element and windbreak‐like clumps are numerically investigated. The local variation of stream‐wise wind speed is focused. Empirically parameterized functions of leeward wind distributions are employed. It reveals that the accumulative probability of dispersed seeds from a point source with considering leeward wind reduction could be well fitted by a logistic function. For a fixed release height or vegetation porosity, accumulative probabilities for single element and those for windbreak‐like clumps would intersect at a leeward location. This intersection location decreases linearly with release height but exponentially with porosity. The fitting parameter r₀ (the center of logistic function) for single element increases as the same manner for windbreak‐like clumps, with regard to the increase of release height, porosity, and height. But, the increasing rates for single element are higher than those for windbreak‐like clumps. The fitting parameter p (the power index of logistic function) for single element is generally larger than that for windbreak‐like clumps. With the increase of release height, p decreases at first but increases then for single element, while it shows opposite trend for windbreak‐like clumps. p decreases with porosity for both single element and windbreak‐like clumps. But, the decreasing rate for single element is lower than that for windbreak‐like clumps. p increases exponentially with height for windbreak‐like clumps, while it almost keeps constant for single element. These results suggest the potential importance of vegetation arrangement on seed dispersal and therefore possibly provide additional reason for the disagreement among observed dispersal kernels.     

哈尔滨行道树的空间异质性分析

城市行道树空间异质性分析是优化城市森林调查、科学管理与生态服务功能提升的基础。本研究以哈尔滨为例,基于网络街景测定哈尔滨市879个样方、26140棵行道树的树高、胸径、冠幅、冠下高等指标,半方差函数和分形分析相结合,旨在确定树木空间异质性特征,为分析城市森林合理采样布点提供依据。结果发现,不同指标存在明显的空间异质性,表现为自相关距离明显差异,但是没有明显的方向性(在0°、45°、90°、135°方向上各向同性)。这些空间异质性受结构、随机因素影响,但是不同指标明显不同,即:冠幅空间变化中随机因素占比为26.56%,而冠下高、树高、胸径的占比分别为8.16%、8.14%、12.80%,后者更多的受城市化相关的结构因素影响(>88%)。冠幅、冠下高、树高、胸径的变程分别为2340、1320、1470、1890m,考虑到采样间距应控制在变程之内就可以有效揭示空间格局特征,测量不同指标的最小采样数量为:冠幅156个样方;冠下高440个样方;树高360个样方;胸径224个样方。分形分析结果显示,哈尔滨树木冠幅、冠下高、树高、胸径的D值分别为1.957、1.961、1.961和1.971,都接近于2,说明空间变异主要发生在各个样方间(距离:666m),与半方差函数分析交互验证。我们的研究结果为哈尔滨市城市森林研究与管理提供了基础数据支持,有助于今后研究确定合理的采样方案。     

Changes in body proportions of Japanese medical students between 1961 and 1986

Since 1945, the Japanese physique has changed a great deal. Physical examinations of medical students at Kyushu University have been carried out on an annual basis since 1939. We investigated changes in body proportions using data on 813 medical students examined from 1961 to 1986. During these 26 years, standing height has increased by 4.69 cm, arm length by 2.58 cm, and sitting height by 0.79 cm. Thus, the Japanese have grown taller and their extremities are longer, yet the trunk has not changed significantly. This study also shows a 10-year delay in increase in length of the upper extremities.     

Socio-economic status and z-score standardized height-for-age of U.S.-born children (ages 2–6)

This study explores socio-economic gradients in height (stature-for-age) among a nationally representative sample of 2–6 year old children in the United States. We use NHANES III (1988–1994) Youth data linked with a special Natality Data supplement which contains information from birth certificates among sampled NHANES III Youth who are <7 years of age. Our results indicate significant socio-economic gradients for both maternal education and family income, net of controls for confounders, including: birth weight, gestational age, family size, and parental heights. These results are in stark contrast to those from other developed countries that seem to indicate diminished or eliminated socio-economic disparities, net of known confounders. In the United States, it appears that socio-economic gradients have an effect on birth outcomes, and continue to have an additional direct and independent effect on height, even in early childhood.     

Measured versus self-reported body height

Students (105 males and 298 females) of the Faculty of Natural Sciences of University of Wrocław of 19–28 years of age were examined. The questionnaire and body height measurements were conducted in February and March of the year 2000. The measured as well as self — reported body height were analyzed depending on socio — economic variables such as the students' parents' education, the students' place of residence and their families' financial status, until the students' 14 year of age. The analysis of the mean self — reported and measured body height values demonstrated insignificant differences for men and the significant ones for women. Tall women declare greater than actual body height and only tall men appeared to be insignificantly taller than their questionnaire answers suggested. The analysis of the mean differences with regard to the size and kind of the place of residence didn't show significant differences. Similarly, neither the educational level nor the financial status constitute a differentiating factor with regard to the analyzed characteristics.     

基于遥感的建筑物高度快速提取研究综述

近年来我国城市化进程不断推进,不仅体现在城市面积上的增长,也体现在建筑物高度的增长。高度增长一方面能尽量克服城市土地资源匮乏的瓶颈,另一方面为优化城市结构及城市功能做出贡献。在城市遥感研究领域,对于城市建筑物高度的提取也成为研究的重点。城市建筑物高度的估计与测量,已成为城市规划和扩张、城市灾害风险预警与评估的重要参数,同时也为数字城市三维模型的建立提供了基础测绘资料。分别基于光学遥感影像、高分辨率SAR(Synthetic Aperture Radar)影像以及光学遥感影像与高分辨率SAR影像的融合三方面,全面阐述城市建筑物高度的提取方法,并比较两类影像在提取建筑物高度的优劣势,通过回顾早年研究方法,逐步引入近年来新的发展趋势。