The impact of climate change measured at relevant spatial scales: new hope for tropical lizards

Much attention has been given to recent predictions that widespread extinctions of tropical ectotherms, and tropical forest lizards in particular, will result from anthropogenic climate change. Most of these predictions, however, are based on environmental temperature data measured at a maximum resolution of 1 km², whereas individuals of most species experience thermal variation on a much finer scale. To address this disconnect, we combined thermal performance curves for five populations of Anolis lizard from the Bay Islands of Honduras with high‐resolution temperature distributions generated from physical models. Previous research has suggested that open‐habitat species are likely to invade forest habitat and drive forest species to extinction. We test this hypothesis, and compare the vulnerabilities of closely related, but allopatric, forest species. Our data suggest that the open‐habitat populations we studied will not invade forest habitat and may actually benefit from predicted warming for many decades. Conversely, one of the forest species we studied should experience reduced activity time as a result of warming, while two others are unlikely to experience a significant decline in performance. Our results suggest that global‐scale predictions generated using low‐resolution temperature data may overestimate the vulnerability of many tropical ectotherms to climate change.     

From global change to a butterfly flapping: biophysics and behaviour affect tropical climate change impacts

Difficulty in characterizing the relationship between climatic variability and climate change vulnerability arises when we consider the multiple scales at which this variation occurs, be it temporal (from minute to annual) or spatial (from centimetres to kilometres). We studied populations of a single widely distributed butterfly species, Chlosyne lacinia, to examine the physiological, morphological, thermoregulatory and biophysical underpinnings of adaptation to tropical and temperate climates. Microclimatic and morphological data along with a biophysical model documented the importance of solar radiation in predicting butterfly body temperature. We also integrated the biophysics with a physiologically based insect fitness model to quantify the influence of solar radiation, morphology and behaviour on warming impact projections. While warming is projected to have some detrimental impacts on tropical ectotherms, fitness impacts in this study are not as negative as models that assume body and air temperature equivalence would suggest. We additionally show that behavioural thermoregulation can diminish direct warming impacts, though indirect thermoregulatory consequences could further complicate predictions. With these results, at multiple spatial and temporal scales, we show the importance of biophysics and behaviour for studying biodiversity consequences of global climate change, and stress that tropical climate change impacts are likely to be context-dependent.     

Basking behavior predicts the evolution of heat tolerance in Australian rainforest lizards

There is pressing urgency to understand how tropical ectotherms can behaviorally and physiologically respond to climate warming. We examine how basking behavior and thermal environment interact to influence evolutionary variation in thermal physiology of multiple species of lygosomine rainforest skinks from the Wet Tropics of northeastern Queensland, Australia (AWT). These tropical lizards are behaviorally specialized to exploit canopy or sun, and are distributed across marked thermal clines in the AWT. Using phylogenetic analyses, we demonstrate that physiological parameters are either associated with changes in local thermal habitat or to basking behavior, but not both. Cold tolerance, the optimal sprint speed, and performance breadth are primarily influenced by local thermal environment. Specifically, montane lizards are more cool tolerant, have broader performance breadths, and higher optimum sprinting temperatures than their lowland counterparts. Heat tolerance, in contrast, is strongly affected by basking behavior: there are two evolutionary optima, with basking species having considerably higher heat tolerance than shade skinks, with no effect of elevation. These distinct responses among traits indicate the multiple selective pressures and constraints that shape the evolution of thermal performance. We discuss how behavior and physiology interact to shape organisms’ vulnerability and potential resilience to climate change.     

An alternative explanation for global trends in thermal tolerance

Ectotherms from higher latitudes can generally perform over broader temperature ranges than tropical ectotherms. This pattern is thought to reflect trends in temperature variability: tropical ectotherms evolve to be ‘thermal specialists’ because their environment is thermally stable. However, the tropics are also hotter, and most physiological rates increase exponentially with temperature. Using a dataset spanning diverse ectotherms, we show that the temperature ranges ectotherms tolerate (the difference between lower and upper critical temperatures, and between optimum and upper critical temperatures) generally represents the same range of equivalent biological rates (e.g. metabolism) for cool‐ and warm‐adapted species, and independent of latitude or elevation. This suggests that geographical trends in temperature variability may not be the ultimate mechanism underlying latitudinal and elevational trends in thermal tolerance. Rather, we propose that tropical ectotherms can perform over a narrower range of temperatures than species from higher latitudes because the tropics are hotter.     

Lower thermal tolerance in nocturnal than in diurnal ants: a challenge for nocturnal ectotherms facing global warming

1. The thermal adaptation hypothesis proposes that because thermoregulation involves a high metabolic cost, thermal limits of organisms must be locally adapted to temperatures experienced in their environments. There is evidence that tolerance to high temperatures decreases in insects inhabiting colder habitats and microclimates. However, it is not clear if thermal limits of ectotherms with contrasting temporal regimes, such as diurnal and nocturnal insects, are also adapted to temperatures associated with their circadian activities. 2. This study explores differences in heat tolerance among diurnal and nocturnal ant species in four ecosystems in Mexico: tropical montane, tropical rainforest, subtropical dry forests, and high‐elevation semi‐desert. 3. The critical thermal maximum (CT_max), i.e. the temperature at which ants lost motor control, was estimated for diurnal and nocturnal species. CT_max for 19 diurnal and 12 nocturnal ant species distributed among 45 populations was also estimated. 4. Semi‐desert and subtropical dry forest ants displayed higher tolerances to high temperatures than did ants in tropical rainforest. The lowest tolerance to high temperatures was recorded in tropical montane forest ants. In general, among all habitats, the CT_max of nocturnal ants was lower than that of diurnal ants. 5. An increase in nocturnal temperatures, combined with lower tolerance to high temperatures, may represent a substantial challenge for nocturnal ectotherms in a warming world.     

Evolutionary stasis and lability in thermal physiology in a group of tropical lizards

Understanding how quickly physiological traits evolve is a topic of great interest, particularly in the context of how organisms can adapt in response to climate warming. Adjustment to novel thermal habitats may occur either through behavioural adjustments, physiological adaptation or both. Here, we test whether rates of evolution differ among physiological traits in the cybotoids, a clade of tropical Anolis lizards distributed in markedly different thermal environments on the Caribbean island of Hispaniola. We find that cold tolerance evolves considerably faster than heat tolerance, a difference that results because behavioural thermoregulation more effectively shields these organisms from selection on upper than lower temperature tolerances. Specifically, because lizards in very different environments behaviourally thermoregulate during the day to similar body temperatures, divergent selection on body temperature and heat tolerance is precluded, whereas night-time temperatures can only be partially buffered by behaviour, thereby exposing organisms to selection on cold tolerance. We discuss how exposure to selection on physiology influences divergence among tropical organisms and its implications for adaptive evolutionary response to climate warming.     

Gross mismatch between thermal tolerances and environmental temperatures in a tropical freshwater snail: Climate warming and evolutionary implications

The relationship between acute thermal tolerance and habitat temperature in ectotherm animals informs about their thermal adaptation and is used to assess thermal safety margins and sensitivity to climate warming. We studied this relationship in an equatorial freshwater snail (Clea nigricans), belonging to a predominantly marine gastropod lineage (Neogastropoda, Buccinidae). We found that tolerance of heating and cooling exceeded average daily maximum and minimum temperatures, by roughly 20 °C in each case. Because habitat temperature is generally assumed to be the main selective factor acting on the fundamental thermal niche, the discordance between thermal tolerance and environmental temperature implies trait conservation following ‘in situ’ environmental change, or following novel colonisation of a thermally less-variable habitat. Whereas heat tolerance could relate to an historical association with the thermally variable and extreme marine intertidal fringe zone, cold tolerance could associate with either an ancestral life at higher latitudes, or represent adaptation to cooler, higher-altitudinal, tropical lotic systems. The broad upper thermal safety margin (difference between heat tolerance and maximum environmental temperature) observed in this snail is grossly incompatible with the very narrow safety margins typically found in most terrestrial tropical ectotherms (insects and lizards), and hence with the emerging prediction that tropical ectotherms, are especially vulnerable to environmental warming. A more comprehensive understanding of climatic vulnerability of animal ectotherms thus requires greater consideration of taxonomic diversity, ecological transition and evolutionary history.     

Upper temperature limits of tropical marine ectotherms: global warming implications

Animal physiology, ecology and evolution are affected by temperature and it is expected that community structure will be strongly influenced by global warming. This is particularly relevant in the tropics, where organisms are already living close to their upper temperature limits and hence are highly vulnerable to rising temperature. Here we present data on upper temperature limits of 34 tropical marine ectotherm species from seven phyla living in intertidal and subtidal habitats. Short term thermal tolerances and vertical distributions were correlated, i.e., upper shore animals have higher thermal tolerance than lower shore and subtidal animals; however, animals, despite their respective tidal height, were susceptible to the same temperature in the long term. When temperatures were raised by 1°C hour(-1), the upper lethal temperature range of intertidal ectotherms was 41-52°C, but this range was narrower and reduced to 37-41°C in subtidal animals. The rate of temperature change, however, affected intertidal and subtidal animals differently. In chronic heating experiments when temperature was raised weekly or monthly instead of every hour, upper temperature limits of subtidal species decreased from 40°C to 35.4°C, while the decrease was more than 10°C in high shore organisms. Hence in the long term, activity and survival of tropical marine organisms could be compromised just 2-3°C above present seawater temperatures. Differences between animals from environments that experience different levels of temperature variability suggest that the physiological mechanisms underlying thermal sensitivity may vary at different rates of warming.     

Coping with temperature at the warm edge--patterns of thermal adaptation in the microbial eukaryote Paramecium caudatum

Background

Ectothermic organisms are thought to be severely affected by global warming since their physiological performance is directly dependent on temperature. Latitudinal and temporal variations in mean temperatures force ectotherms to adapt to these complex environmental conditions. Studies investigating current patterns of thermal adaptation among populations of different latitudes allow a prediction of the potential impact of prospective increases in environmental temperatures on their fitness.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In this study, temperature reaction norms were ascertained among 18 genetically defined, natural clones of the microbial eukaryote Paramecium caudatum. These different clones have been isolated from 12 freshwater habitats along a latitudinal transect in Europe and from 3 tropical habitats (Indonesia). The sensitivity to increasing temperatures was estimated through the analysis of clone specific thermal tolerances and by relating those to current and predicted temperature data of their natural habitats.All investigated European clones seem to be thermal generalists with a broad thermal tolerance and similar optimum temperatures. The weak or missing co-variation of thermal tolerance with latitude does not imply local adaptation to thermal gradients; it rather suggests adaptive phenotypic plasticity among the whole European subpopulation. The tested Indonesian clones appear to be locally adapted to the less variable, tropical temperature regime and show higher tolerance limits, but lower tolerance breadths.

Conclusions/Significance

Due to the lack of local temperature adaptation within the European subpopulation, P. caudatum genotypes at the most southern edge of their geographic range seem to suffer from the predicted increase in magnitude and frequency of summer heat waves caused by climate change.     

Thermally mediated body temperature, water content and aggregation behaviour in the intertidal gastropod Nerita atramentosa

Intertidal organisms are vulnerable to global warming as they already live at, or near to, the upper limit of their thermal tolerance window. The behaviour of ectotherms could, however, dampen their limited physiological abilities to respond to climate change (e.g. drier and warmer environmental conditions) which could substantially increase their survival rates. The behaviour of ectotherms is still mostly overlooked in climate change studies. Here, we investigate the potential of aggregation behaviour to compensate for climate change in an intertidal gastropod species (Nerita atramentosa) in South Australia. We used thermal imaging to investigate (1) the heterogeneity in individual snail water content and body temperature and surrounding substratum temperature on two topographically different habitats (i.e. rock platform and boulders) separated by 250 m at both day- and night-times, (2) the potential relationship between environment temperature (air and substratum) and snail water content and body temperature, and (3) the potential buffering effect of aggregation behaviour on snail water content and body temperature. Both substratum and snail temperature were more heterogeneous at small spatial scales (a few centimetres to a few metres) than between habitats. This reinforces the evidence that mobile intertidal ectotherms could survive locally under warmer conditions if they can locate and move behaviourally in local thermal refuges. N. atramentosa behaviour, water content and body temperature during emersion seem to be related to the thermal stability and local conditions of the habitat occupied. Aggregation behaviour reduces both desiccation and heat stresses but only on the boulder field. Further investigations are required to identify the different behavioural strategies used by ectothermic species to adapt to heat and dehydrating conditions at the habitat level. Ultimately, this information constitutes a fundamental prerequisite to implement conservation management plans for ectothermic species identified as vulnerable in the warming climate.     

Thermal sensitivity of cold climate lizards and the importance of distributional ranges

One of the fundamental goals in macroecology is to understand the relationship among species’ geographic ranges, ecophysiology, and climate; however, the mechanisms underlying the distributional geographic patterns observed remain unknown for most organisms. In the case of ectotherms this is particularly important because the knowledge of these interactions may provide a robust framework for predicting the potential consequences of climate change in these organisms. Here we studied the relationship of thermal sensitivity and thermal tolerance in Patagonian lizards and their geographic ranges, proposing that species with wider distributions have broader plasticity and thermal tolerance. We predicted that lizard thermal physiology is related to the thermal characteristics of the environment. We also explored the presence of trade-offs of some thermal traits and evaluated the potential effects of a predicted scenario of climate change for these species. We examined sixteen species of Liolaemini lizards from Patagonia representing species with different geographic range sizes. We obtained thermal tolerance data and performance curves for each species in laboratory trials. We found evidence supporting the idea that higher physiological plasticity allows species to achieve broader distribution ranges compared to species with restricted distributions. We also found a trade-off between broad levels of plasticity and higher optimum temperatures of performance. Finally, results from contrasting performance curves against the highest environmental temperatures that lizards may face in a future scenario (year 2080) suggest that the activity of species occurring at high latitudes may be unaffected by predicted climatic changes.     

Why tropical forest lizards are vulnerable to climate warming

Biological impacts of climate warming are predicted to increase with latitude, paralleling increases in warming. However, the magnitude of impacts depends not only on the degree of warming but also on the number of species at risk, their physiological sensitivity to warming and their options for behavioural and physiological compensation. Lizards are useful for evaluating risks of warming because their thermal biology is well studied. We conducted macrophysiological analyses of diurnal lizards from diverse latitudes plus focal species analyses of Puerto Rican Anolis and Sphaerodactyus. Although tropical lowland lizards live in environments that are warm all year, macrophysiological analyses indicate that some tropical lineages (thermoconformers that live in forests) are active at low body temperature and are intolerant of warm temperatures. Focal species analyses show that some tropical forest lizards were already experiencing stressful body temperatures in summer when studied several decades ago. Simulations suggest that warming will not only further depress their physiological performance in summer, but will also enable warm-adapted, open-habitat competitors and predators to invade forests. Forest lizards are key components of tropical ecosystems, but appear vulnerable to the cascading physiological and ecological effects of climate warming, even though rates of tropical warming may be relatively low.     

The highest kingdom of Anolis: Thermal biology of the Andean lizard Anolis heterodermus (Squamata: Dactyloidae) over an elevational gradient in the Eastern Cordillera of Colombia

Vertebrate ectotherms may deal with changes of environmental temperatures by behavioral and/or physiological mechanisms. Reptiles inhabiting tropical highlands face extreme fluctuating daily temperatures, and extreme values and intervals of fluctuations vary with altitude. Anolis heterodermus occurs between 1800 m to 3750 m elevation in the tropical Andes, and is the Anolis species found at the highest altitude known. We evaluated which strategies populations from elevations of 2200 m, 2650 m and 3400 m use to cope with environmental temperatures. We measured body, preferred, critical maximum and minimum temperatures, and sprint speed at different body temperatures of individuals, as well as operative temperatures. Anolis heterodermus exhibits behavioral adjustments in response to changes in environmental temperatures across altitudes. Likewise, physiological traits exhibit intrapopulation variations, but they are similar among populations, tended to the “static” side of the evolution of thermal traits spectrum. The thermoregulatory behavioral strategy in this species is extremely plastic, and lizards adjust even to fluctuating environmental conditions from day to day. Unlike other Anolis species, at low thermal quality of the habitat, lizards are thermoconformers, particularly at the highest altitudes, where cloudy days can intensify this strategy even more. Our study reveals that the pattern of strategies for dealing with thermal ambient variations and their relation to extinction risks in the tropics that are caused by global warming is perhaps more complex for lizards than previously thought.     

A conceptual framework for understanding thermal constraints on ectotherm activity with implications for predicting responses to global change

Activity budgets influence the expression of life history traits as well as population dynamics. For ectotherms, a major constraint on activity is environmental temperature. Nonetheless, we currently lack a comprehensive conceptual framework for understanding thermal constraints on activity, which hinders our ability to rigorously apply activity data to answer ecological and evolutionary questions. Here, we integrate multiple aspects of temperature‐dependent activity into a single unified framework that has general applicability. We also provide examples of the implementation of this framework to address fundamental questions in ecology relating to climate change vulnerability and species’ distributions using empirical data from a tropical lizard.     

Adaptive thermoregulation in endotherms may alter responses to climate change

Climate change is one of the major issues facing natural populations and thus a focus of recent research has been to predict the responses of organisms to these changes. Models are becoming more complex and now commonly include physiological traits of the organisms of interest. However, endothermic species have received less attention than have ectotherms in these mechanistic models. Further, it is not clear whether responses of endotherms to climate change are modified by variation in thermoregulatory characteristics associated with phenotypic plasticity and/or adaptation to past selective pressures. Here, we review the empirical data on thermal adaptation and acclimatization in endotherms and discuss how those factors may be important in models of responses to climate change. We begin with a discussion of why thermoregulation and thermal sensitivity at high body temperatures should be co-adapted. Importantly, we show that there is, in fact, considerable variation in the ability of endotherms to tolerate high body temperatures and/or high environmental temperatures, but a better understanding of this variation will likely be critical for predicting responses to future climatic scenarios. Next, we discuss why variation in thermoregulatory characteristics should be considered when modeling the effects of climate change on heterothermic endotherms. Finally, we review some biophysical and biochemical factors that will limit adaptation and acclimation in endotherms. We consider both long-term, directional climate change and short-term (but increasingly common) anomalies in climate such as extreme heat waves and we suggest areas of important future research relating to both our basic understanding of endothermic thermoregulation and the responses of endotherms to climate change.     

Vulnerability of Australian tropical savanna birds to climate change

Assessments of species vulnerability to climate change should increase the effectiveness of interventions in the current decline in biodiversity. Species vulnerability to climate change is a consequence of their sensitivity and adaptive capacity, in combination with their exposure to climate change. We apply a vulnerability assessment framework to 243 bird species inhabiting the tropical savannas of northern Australia. We build on previous vulnerability studies by including detailed data for variables relating to species sensitivity to change (relative abundance, clutch size, sensitivity to fire and distribution area), species adaptive capacity (movement behaviour and dietary breadth) and proportional changes predicted for their geographic range (i.e. exposure to climate change). These are integrated to provide a ranking of vulnerability. Our analysis found that birds of Australian tropical savannas cluster together with high sensitivity, with a few wide‐ranging increasing species with very low sensitivity. Australian tropical savanna birds have a range of adaptive capacities, and the impact of climate change on these species is predicted to be substantial. Two already endangered species are among the most vulnerable. Species largely restricted to Cape York Peninsula (a geographically distinct region) had the greatest overall vulnerability; these species were, in general, sensitive due to small distributions, sensitivity to fire frequency and had a lower capacity for dispersal. It will be important for the future of Australian tropical savanna birds to mitigate ecological threats and maintain extensive areas of suitable habitat to facilitate species dispersal.     

Broad‐scale ecological implications of ectothermy and endothermy in changing environments

Aim Physiology is emerging as a basis for understanding the distribution and diversity of organisms, and ultimately for predicting their responses to climate change. Here we review how the difference in physiology of terrestrial vertebrate ectotherms (amphibians and reptiles) and endotherms (birds and mammals) is expected to influence broad‐scale ecological patterns. Location Global terrestrial ecosystems. Methods We use data from the literature and modelling to analyse geographic gradients in energy use and thermal limits. We then compare broad‐scale ecological patterns for both groups with expectations stemming from these geographic gradients. Results The differences in thermal physiology between ectotherms and endotherms result in geographically disparate macrophysiological constraints. Field metabolic rate (FMR) is stable or decreases slightly with temperature for endotherms, while it generally increases for ectotherms, leading to opposing latitudinal gradients of expected FMR. Potential activity time is a greater constraint on the distributions of ectotherms than endotherms, particularly at high latitudes. Differences in the primary correlates of abundance and species richness for two representative taxonomic groups are consistent with the consequences of these basic physiological differences. Ectotherm richness is better predicted by temperature, whereas endotherm richness is more strongly associated with primary productivity. Finally, in contrast to endotherms, ectotherm richness is not strongly related to abundance. Main conclusions Differences in thermal physiology affect how organisms interact with and are constrained by their environment, and may ultimately explain differences in the geographic pattern of biodiversity for endotherms and ectotherms. Linking the fields of physiological and broad‐scale ecology should yield a more mechanistic understanding of how biodiversity will respond to environmental change.     

A framework for elucidating the temperature dependence of fitness

Climate warming is predicted to cause large-scale extinctions, particularly of ectothermic species. A striking difference between tropical and temperate ectotherms is that tropical species experience a mean habitat temperature that is closer to the temperature at which fitness is maximized (T(opt)) and an upper temperature limit for survival (T(max)) that is closer to T(opt) than do temperate species. Thus, even a small increase in environmental temperature could put tropical ectotherms at high risk of extinction, whereas temperate ectotherms have a wider temperature cushion. Although this pattern is widely observed, the mechanisms that produce it are not well understood. Here we develop a mathematical framework to partition the temperature response of fitness into its components (fecundity, mortality, and development) and test model predictions with data for insects. We find that fitness declines at high temperatures because the temperature responses of fecundity and mortality act in opposite ways: fecundity decreases with temperature when temperatures exceed the optimal range, whereas mortality continues to increase. The proximity of T(opt) to T(max) depends on how the temperature response of development mediates the interaction between fecundity and mortality. When development is highly temperature sensitive, mortality exceeds reproduction only after fecundity has started to decline with temperature, which causes fitness to decline rapidly to zero when temperatures exceed T(opt). The model correctly predicts empirically observed fitness-temperature relationships in insects from different latitudes. It also suggests explanations for the widely reported phenological shifts in many ectotherms and the latitudinal differences in fitness responses.     

Modeling warming predicts a physiological threshold for the extinction of the living fossil frog Calyptocephalella gayi

Global climate change will have a greater impact on ectotherms in tropical and subtropical communities than at higher latitudes, because ambient temperatures are closer to the upper thermal limits of species. Amphibian species are highly dependent on external weather conditions, and the effect of global warming on these has been evaluated recently. The Great Chilean frog (Calyptocephalella gayi) is an endemic, monotypic species and genus whose conservation status is considered Vulnerable because of high extraction pressure for human consumption, lack of regulatory measures and comprehension by its consumers. Their populations have also declined due to the loss and destruction of their habitats. C. gayi has not been considered as an object of physiological study, so this large species is not known as one that can adapt to current environmental changes. In this study we analyze the thermoregulatory capacity and thermal efficiency of C. gayi to determine its potential for climatic adaptation. The results indicate that this species is strictly a thermal-conformer; its thermal efficiency and its ability to withstand high temperatures allow it to sustain itself under a climate change scenario, however, it has thermal constraints that do not allow it to withstand temperatures greater than 30 °C. By modeling its ontogenetic conditions mathematically, we project that the larvae are not in danger, although there is a group of around 4% which is very close to 30 °C, which is the highest temperature recorded for the species. However, about 40% of subadults and approximately 47% of adult frogs will not survive the change of ~7 °C projected for the following 85 years, which will affect future generations.