Comparison of Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate by the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) Equations with and without Cystatin C for Predicting Clinical Outcomes in Elderly Women

Background

Reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using the cystatin-C derived equations might be a better predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality compared with the creatinine-derived equations, but this association remains unclear in elderly individuals.

Aim

The aims of this study were to compare the predictive values of the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI)-creatinine, CKD-EPI-cystatin C and CKD-EPI-creatinine-cystatin C eGFR equations for all-cause mortality and CVD events (hospitalizations±mortality).

Methods

Prospective cohort study of 1165 elderly women aged>70 years. Associations between eGFR and outcomes were examined using Cox regression analysis. Test accuracy of eGFR equations for predicting outcomes was examined using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis and net reclassification improvement (NRI).

Results

Risk of all-cause mortality for every incremental reduction in eGFR determined using CKD-EPI-creatinine, CKD-EPI-cystatin C and the CKD-EPI-creatinine-cystatic C equations was similar. Areas under the ROC curves of CKD-EPI-creatinine, CKD-EPI-cystatin C and CKD-EPI-creatinine-cystatin C equations for all-cause mortality were 0.604 (95%CI 0.561–0.647), 0.606 (95%CI 0.563–0.649; p = 0.963) and 0.606 (95%CI 0.563–0.649; p = 0.894) respectively. For all-cause mortality, there was no improvement in the reclassification of eGFR categories using the CKD-EPI-cystatin C (NRI -4.1%; p = 0.401) and CKD-EPI-creatinine-cystatin C (NRI -1.2%; p = 0.748) compared with CKD-EPI-creatinine equation. Similar findings were observed for CVD events.

Conclusion

eGFR derived from CKD-EPI cystatin C and CKD-EPI creatinine-cystatin C equations did not improve the accuracy or predictive ability for clinical events compared to CKD-EPI-creatinine equation in this cohort of elderly women.     

Thirty-One Novel Biomarkers as Predictors for Clinically Incident Diabetes

Background

The prevalence of diabetes is increasing in all industrialized countries and its prevention has become a public health priority. However, the predictors of diabetes risk are insufficiently understood. We evaluated, whether 31 novel biomarkers could help to predict the risk of incident diabetes.

Methods and Findings

The biomarkers were evaluated primarily in the FINRISK97 cohort (n = 7,827; 417 cases of clinically incident diabetes during the follow-up). The findings were replicated in the Health 2000 cohort (n = 4,977; 179 cases of clinically incident diabetes during the follow-up). We used Cox proportional hazards models to calculate the relative risk of diabetes, after adjusting for the classic risk factors, separately for each biomarker. Next, we assessed the discriminatory ability of single biomarkers using receiver operating characteristic curves and C-statistics, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification improvement (NRI). Finally, we derived a biomarker score in the FINRISK97 cohort and validated it in the Health 2000 cohort. A score consisting of adiponectin, apolipoprotein B, C-reactive protein and ferritin almost doubled the relative risk of diabetes in the validation cohort (HR per one standard deviation increase 1.88, p = 2.8 e-5). It also improved discrimination of the model (IDI = 0.0149, p<0.0001) and reclassification of diabetes risk (NRI = 11.8%, p = 0.006). Gender-specific analyses suggested that the best score differed between men and women. Among men, the best results were obtained with the score of four biomarkers: adiponectin, apolipoprotein B, ferritin and interleukin-1 receptor antagonist, which gave an NRI of 25.4% (p<0.0001). Among women, the best score included adiponectin, apolipoprotein B, C-reactive protein and insulin. It gave an NRI of 13.6% (p = 0.041).

Conclusions

We identified novel biomarkers that were associated with the risk of clinically incident diabetes over and above the classic risk factors. This gives new insights into the pathogenesis of diabetes and may help with targeting prevention and treatment.     

Decreased Leukocyte Telomere Length (LTL) Is Associated with Stroke but Unlikely to Be Causative

Aims

Interindividual variability in telomere length is highly heritable. Leukocyte telomere length (LTL) shortening has been shown to be associated with the process of atherosclerosis. But whether the inheritance of LTL is related to stroke is still unclear. The aim of this study was to test if telomere shortening was associated with stroke and whether this association was mainly due to inheritance or acquired cardiovascular risk factors.

Methods

Our study was focused on stroke in patients and their siblings. 450 subjects were recruited into this study: 150 patients with ischemic stroke as case group, 150 siblings of patients free of stroke (sibling group) and 150 healthy people as normal control. LTL was measured by real-time Polymerase Chain Reactions. The association between LTL and the cardiovascular risk factors was also determined.

Results

A significant decrease of LTL was found in case group when comparing with sibling (0.92±0.77 vs 1.68±1.24, p<0.001) and normal groups (0.92±0.77 vs 1.95±1.07, p<0.001), but no significant difference was found between sibling group and healthy control (p = 0.330). Shorter telomere length was independently associated with hypertension (p = 0.029, OR = 2.189, 95%CI:1.084–4.421), recent social pressure (p = 0.001, OR = 3.121, 95%CI:1.597–6.101), age (p = 0.004, OR = 1.055, 95%CI:1.017–1.093), HDL (p = 0.022, OR = 0.227, 95%CI:0.064–0.810) and diabetes (p = 0.018, OR = 3.174, 95%CI:1.221–8.252). Additionally, shortened length of telomere (p = 0.017, OR = 3.996, 95%CI:1.283–12.774) was an independent risk biomarker for stroke among case and sibling groups.

Conclusion

The present study has demonstrated that decreased LTL might be associated with ischemic stroke but unlikely to be causative.     

Comparison of Audio Computer Assisted Self-Interview and Face-To-Face Interview Methods in Eliciting HIV-Related Risks among Men Who Have Sex with Men and Men Who Inject Drugs in Nigeria

Introduction

Face-to-face (FTF) interviews are the most frequently used means of obtaining information on sexual and drug injecting behaviours from men who have sex with men (MSM) and men who inject drugs (MWID). However, accurate information on these behaviours may be difficult to elicit because of sociocultural hostility towards these populations and the criminalization associated with these behaviours. Audio computer assisted self-interview (ACASI) is an interviewing technique that may mitigate social desirability bias in this context.

Methods

This study evaluated differences in the reporting of HIV-related risky behaviours by MSM and MWID using ACASI and FTF interviews. Between August and September 2010, 712 MSM and 328 MWID in Nigeria were randomized to either ACASI or FTF interview for completion of a behavioural survey that included questions on sensitive sexual and injecting risk behaviours. Data were analyzed separately for MSM and MWID. Logistic regression was run for each behaviour as a dependent variable to determine differences in reporting methods.

Results

MSM interviewed via ACASI reported significantly higher risky behaviours with both women (multiple female sexual partners 51% vs. 43%, p = 0.04; had unprotected anal sex with women 72% vs. 57%, p = 0.05) and men (multiple male sex partners 70% vs. 54%, p≤0.001) than through FTF. Additionally, they were more likely to self-identify as homosexual (AOR: 3.3, 95%CI:2.4–4.6) and report drug use in the past 12 months (AOR:40.0, 95%CI: 9.6–166.0). MWID interviewed with ACASI were more likely to report needle sharing (AOR:3.3, 95%CI:1.2–8.9) and re-use (AOR:2.2, 95%CI:1.2–3.9) in the past month and prior HIV testing (AOR:1.6, 95%CI 1.02–2.5).

Conclusion

The feasibility of using ACASI in studies and clinics targeting key populations in Nigeria must be explored to increase the likelihood of obtaining more accurate data on high risk behaviours to inform improved risk reduction strategies that reduce HIV transmission.     

Prevalence of Symptomatic Heart Failure with Reduced and with Normal Ejection Fraction in an Elderly General Population–The CARLA Study

Background/Objectives

Chronic heart failure (CHF) is one of the most important public health concerns in the industrialized world having increasing incidence and prevalence. Although there are several studies describing the prevalence of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFREF) and heart failure with normal ejection fraction (HFNEF) in selected populations, there are few data regarding the prevalence and the determinants of symptomatic heart failure in the general population.

Methods

Cross-sectional data of a population-based German sample (1,779 subjects aged 45–83 years) were analyzed to determine the prevalence and determinants of chronic SHF and HFNEF defined according to the European Society of Cardiology using symptoms, echocardiography and serum NT-proBNP. Prevalence was age-standardized to the German population as of December 31st, 2005.

Results

The overall age-standardized prevalence of symptomatic CHF was 7.7% (95%CI 6.0–9.8) for men and 9.0% (95%CI 7.0–11.5) for women. The prevalence of CHF strongly increased with age from 3.0% among 45–54- year-old subjects to 22.0% among 75–83- year-old subjects. Symptomatic HFREF could be shown in 48% (n = 78), symptomatic HFNEF in 52% (n = 85) of subjects with CHF. The age-standardized prevalence of HFREF was 3.8 % (95%CI 2.4–5.8) for women and 4.6 % (95%CI 3.6–6.3) for men. The age-standardized prevalence of HFNEF for women and men was 5.1 % (95%CI 3.8–7.0) and 3.0 % (95%CI 2.1–4.5), respectively. Persons with CHF were more likely to have hypertension (PR = 3.4; 95%CI 1.6–7.3) or to have had a previous myocardial infarction (PR = 2.5, 95%CI 1.8–3.5).

Conclusion

The prevalence of symptomatic CHF appears high in this population compared with other studies. While more women were affected by HFNEF than men, more male subjects suffered from HFREF. The high prevalence of symptomatic CHF seems likely to be mainly due to the high prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in this population.     

Impact of Risk Factors on Different Interval Cancer Subtypes in a Population-Based Breast Cancer Screening Programme

Background

Interval cancers are primary breast cancers diagnosed in women after a negative screening test and before the next screening invitation. Our aim was to evaluate risk factors for interval cancer and their subtypes and to compare the risk factors identified with those associated with incident screen-detected cancers.

Methods

We analyzed data from 645,764 women participating in the Spanish breast cancer screening program from 2000–2006 and followed-up until 2009. A total of 5,309 screen-detected and 1,653 interval cancers were diagnosed. Among the latter, 1,012 could be classified on the basis of findings in screening and diagnostic mammograms, consisting of 489 true interval cancers (48.2%), 235 false-negatives (23.2%), 172 minimal-signs (17.2%) and 114 occult tumors (11.3%). Information on the screening protocol and women''s characteristics were obtained from the screening program registry. Cause-specific Cox regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) of risks factors for interval cancer and incident screen-detected cancer. A multinomial regression model, using screen-detected tumors as a reference group, was used to assess the effect of breast density and other factors on the occurrence of interval cancer subtypes.

Results

A previous false-positive was the main risk factor for interval cancer (HR = 2.71, 95%CI: 2.28–3.23); this risk was higher for false-negatives (HR = 8.79, 95%CI: 6.24–12.40) than for true interval cancer (HR = 2.26, 95%CI: 1.59–3.21). A family history of breast cancer was associated with true intervals (HR = 2.11, 95%CI: 1.60–2.78), previous benign biopsy with a false-negatives (HR = 1.83, 95%CI: 1.23–2.71). High breast density was mainly associated with occult tumors (RRR = 4.92, 95%CI: 2.58–9.38), followed by true intervals (RRR = 1.67, 95%CI: 1.18–2.36) and false-negatives (RRR = 1.58, 95%CI: 1.00–2.49).

Conclusion

The role of women''s characteristics differs among interval cancer subtypes. This information could be useful to improve effectiveness of breast cancer screening programmes and to better classify subgroups of women with different risks of developing cancer.     

Socioeconomic Deprivation and the Incidence of 12 Cardiovascular Diseases in 1.9 Million Women and Men: Implications for Risk Prediction and Prevention

Background

Recent experimental evidence suggests that socioeconomic characteristics of neighbourhoods influence cardiovascular health, but observational studies which examine deprivation across a wide range of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are lacking.

Methods

Record-linkage cohort study of 1.93 million people to examine the association between small-area socioeconomic deprivation and 12 CVDs. Health records covered primary care, hospital admissions, a myocardial infarction registry and cause-specific mortality in England (CALIBER). Patients were aged ≥30 years and were initially free of CVD. Cox proportional hazard models stratified by general practice were used.

Findings

During a median follow-up of 5.5 years 114,859 people had one of 12 initial CVD presentations. In women the hazards of all CVDs except abdominal aortic aneurysm increased linearly with higher small-area socioeconomic deprivation (adjusted HR for most vs. least deprived ranged from 1.05, 95%CI 0.83–1.32 for abdominal aortic aneurysm to 1.55, 95%CI 1.42–1.70 for heart failure; I² = 81.9%, τ² = 0.01). In men heterogeneity was higher (HR ranged from 0.89, 95%CI 0.75–1.06 for cardiac arrest to 1.85, 95%CI 1.67–2.04 for peripheral arterial disease; I² = 96.0%, τ² = 0.06) and no association was observed with stable angina, sudden cardiac death, subarachnoid haemorrhage, transient ischaemic attack and abdominal aortic aneurysm. Lifetime risk difference between least and most deprived quintiles was most marked for peripheral arterial disease in women (4.3% least deprived, 5.8% most deprived) and men (4.6% least deprived, 7.8% in most deprived); but it was small or negligible for sudden cardiac death, transient ischaemic attack, abdominal aortic aneurysm and ischaemic and intracerebral haemorrhage, in both women and men.

Conclusions

Associations of small-area socioeconomic deprivation with 12 types of CVDs were heterogeneous, and in men absent for several diseases. Findings suggest that policies to reduce deprivation may impact more strongly on heart failure and peripheral arterial disease, and might be more effective in women.     

Socio-Demographic and Geographical Factors in Esophageal and Gastric Cancer Mortality in Sweden

Background

Socio-demographic factors and area of residence might influence the development of esophageal and gastric cancer. Large-scale population-based research can determine the role of such factors.

Methods

This population-based cohort study included all Swedish residents aged 30–84 years in 1990–2007. Educational level, marital status, place of birth, and place of residence were evaluated with regard to mortality from esophageal or gastric cancer. Cox regression yielded hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI), adjusted for potential confounding.

Results

Among 84 920 565 person-years, 5125 and 12 230 deaths occurred from esophageal cancer and gastric cancer, respectively. Higher educational level decreased the HR of esophageal cancer (HR = 0.61, 95%CI 0.42–0.90 in women, HR = 0.71, 95%CI 0.60–0.84 in men) and gastric cancer (HR = 0.80, 95%CI 0.63–1.03 in women, HR = 0.73, 95%CI 0.64–0.83 in men). Being unmarried increased HR of esophageal cancer (HR = 1.64, 95%CI 1.35–1.99 in women, HR = 1.64, 95%CI 1.50–1.80 in men), but not of gastric cancer. Being born in low density populated areas increased HR of gastric cancer (HR = 1.23, 95%CI 1.10–1.38 in women, HR = 1.37, 95%CI 1.25–1.50 in men), while no strong association was found with esophageal cancer. Living in densely populated areas increased HR of esophageal cancer (HR = 1.31, 95%CI 1.14–1.50 in women, HR = 1.40, 95%CI 1.29–1.51 in men), but not of gastric cancer.

Conclusion

These socio-demographic inequalities in cancer mortality warrant efforts to investigate possible preventable mechanisms and to promote and support healthier lifestyles among deprived groups.     

Long-Term Risk of Cardiovascular Disease among Type 2 Diabetic Patients with Asymptomatic Intracranial Atherosclerosis: A Prospective Cohort Study

Objective

To investigate whether asymptomatic middle cerebral artery (MCA) stenosis is associated with risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Chinese with type 2 diabetes.

Methods

In this prospective cohort study, 2,144 Hong Kong Chinese with type 2 diabetes and without history of stroke or atrial fibrillation were recruited in 1994–1996 and followed up for a median of 14.51 years. Participants were assessed at baseline for MCA stenosis using transcranial Doppler. We performed survival analysis to assess the association between asymptomatic MCA stenosis and first CVD event, defined as ischemic stroke, acute coronary syndrome (ACS) or cardiovascular death.

Results

Of the 2,144 subjects, MCA stenosis at baseline was detected in 264 (12.3%). Rates of stroke, ACS and cardiovascular death per 100 were, respectively, 2.24, 2.92 and 1.11 among participants with stenosis, higher than among those without stenosis. Ten-year cumulative occurrence of stroke, ACS and cardiovascular death in subjects with MCA stenosis was 20%, 24% and 10%, respectively, higher than the corresponding values for subjects without stenosis(all P<0.001). After adjusting for covariates, MCA stenosis was found to be an independent predictor of stroke [hazard ratio (HR) 1.40, 95%CI 1.05–1.86; P = 0.02], ACS (HR 1.35, 95%CI 1.04–1.75; P = 0.02) and cardiovascular death(HR 1.56, 95%CI 1.04–2.33; P = 0.03).

Conclusions

Asymptomatic MCA stenosis is a risk factor for CVD in Chinese with type 2 diabetes, and detection of asymptomatic MCA stenosis by transcranial Doppler can identify diabetic individuals at high risk of future CVD. This finding is particularly important for diabetic individuals in Asia, where intracranial atherosclerosis is common.     

Age and Gender Differences in the Social Patterning of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Switzerland: The CoLaus Study

Objectives

We examined the social distribution of a comprehensive range of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) in a Swiss population and assessed whether socioeconomic differences varied by age and gender.

Methods

Participants were 2960 men and 3343 women aged 35–75 years from a population-based survey conducted in Lausanne, Switzerland (CoLaus study). Educational level was the indicator of socioeconomic status used in this study. Analyses were stratified by gender and age group (35–54 years; 55–75 years).

Results

There were large educational differences in the prevalence of CVRF such as current smoking (Δ = absolute difference in prevalence between highest and lowest educational group:15.1%/12.6% in men/women aged 35–54 years), physical inactivity (Δ = 25.3%/22.7% in men/women aged 35–54 years), overweight and obesity (Δ = 14.6%/14.8% in men/women aged 55–75 years for obesity), hypertension (Δ = 16.7%/11.4% in men/women aged 55–75 years), dyslipidemia (Δ = 2.8%/6.2% in men/women aged 35–54 years for high LDL-cholesterol) and diabetes (Δ = 6.0%/2.6% in men/women aged 55–75 years). Educational inequalities in the distribution of CVRF were larger in women than in men for alcohol consumption, obesity, hypertension and dyslipidemia (p<0.05). Relative educational inequalities in CVRF tended to be greater among the younger (35–54 years) than among the older age group (55–75 years), particularly for behavioral CVRF and abdominal obesity among men and for physiological CVRF among women (p<0.05).

Conclusion

Large absolute differences in the prevalence of CVRF according to education categories were observed in this Swiss population. The socioeconomic gradient in CVRF tended to be larger in women and in younger persons.     

Osteoprotegerin CGA Haplotype Protection against Cerebrovascular Complications in Anti-CCP Negative Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis

Introduction

Rheumatoid arthritis is an inflammatory disease with high incidence of cardiovascular disease due to accelerated atherosclerosis. Osteoprotegerin (OPG) has been associated with increased risk of atherosclerotic disease in the general population. Several polymorphisms in the OPG gene with functional effects on cardiovascular disease in non-rheumatic individuals have been described. Therefore, we aimed to analyze the effect of three of these functional OPG polymorphisms on the risk of cardiovascular disease in a large and well-characterized cohort of Spanish patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

Methods

Three OPG gene variants (rs3134063, rs2073618 and rs3134069) were genotyped by TaqMan assays in 2027 Spanish patients with rheumatoid arthritis. Anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP) antibody testing was positive in 997 of 1714 tested. Also, 18.3% of the whole series had experienced cardiovascular events, including 5.4% with cerebrovascular accidents. The relationship between OPG variants and cardiovascular events was assessed using Cox regression.

Results

No association between OPG gene variants and cardiovascular disease was observed in the whole group of rheumatoid arthritis patients or in anti-CCP positive patients. Nevertheless, a protective effect of CGA haplotype on the risk of cardiovascular disease in general, and specifically in the risk of cerebrovascular complications after adjusting for sex, age at disease diagnosis and traditional cardiovascular risk factors was disclosed in anti-CCP negative patients (HR = 0.54; 95%CI: 0.31–0.95; p = 0.032 and HR = 0.17; 95%CI: 0.04–0.78; p = 0.022, respectively).

Conclusion

Our results indicate a protective effect of the OPG CGA haplotype on cardiovascular risk, mainly due to a protective effect against cerebrovascular events in anti-CCP negative rheumatoid arthritis patients.     

Disinhibition in Risky Sexual Behavior in Men,but Not Women,during Four Years of Antiretroviral Therapy in Rural,Southwestern Uganda

Background

In resource-rich areas, risky sexual behavior (RSB) largely diminishes after initiation of anti-retroviral therapy, with notable exceptions among some populations who perceive a protected benefit from anti-retroviral therapy (ART). Yet, there is limited data about long-term trends in risky sexual behavior among HIV-infected people in sub-Saharan Africa after initiation of anti-retroviral therapy.

Methods

We administered questionnaires every three months to collect sexual behavior data among patients taking ART in southwestern Uganda over four years of follow-up time. We defined RSB as having unprotected sex with an HIV-negative or unknown status partner, or unprotected sex with a casual partner. We fit logistic regression models to estimate changes in RSB by time on ART, with and without adjustment for calendar year and CD4 count.

Results

506 participants were enrolled between 2005 and 2011 and contributed a median of 13 visits and 3.5 years of observation time. The majority were female (70%) and median age was 34 years (interquartile range 29–39). There was a decrease in the proportion of men reporting RSB from the pre-ART visit to the first post-ART visit (16.2 to 4.3%, p<0.01) but not women (14.1 to 13.3%, p = 0.80). With each year of ART, women reported decreasing RSB (OR 0.85 per year, 95%CI 0.74–0.98, p = 0.03). In contrast, men had increasing odds of reporting RSB with each year of ART to near pre-treatment rates (OR 1.41, 95%CI 1.14–1.74, p = 0.001), which was partially confounded by changes in calendar time and CD4 count (AOR = 1.24, 95%CI 0.92–1.67, p = 0.16).

Conclusions

Men in southwestern Uganda reported increasing RSB over four years on ART, to levels approaching pre-treatment rates. Strategies to promote long-term safe sex practices targeted to HIV-infected men on ART might have a significant impact on preventing HIV transmission in this setting.     

The Association between the History of Cardiovascular Diseases and Chronic Low Back Pain in South Koreans: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Cardiovascular disease and related risk factors have been suggested as a mechanism leading to atherosclerosis of the lumbar vessels and consequent lumbar pain or sciatica. But there is continued controversy concerning its generalization. This study examined whether cardiovascular disease or its risk factors were associated with chronic low back pain (cLBP) in Koreans.

Methods

Health surveys and examinations were conducted on a nationally representative sample (n = 23,632) of Koreans. A total of 13,841 eligible participants (aged 20 to 89 years) were examined to determine the association between cardiovascular disease, the Framingham risk score, major cardiovascular risk factors (blood pressure, diabetes, cholesterol, and smoking habits) and chronic LBP.

Results

The total prevalence of cLBP was 16.6% (men: 10.8%, women: 21.1%) and that in patients with a history of cardiovascular diseases was 36.6% (men: 26.5%, women: 47.1%). The results showed that patients’ medical history of cardiovascular disease was significantly associated with cLBP in both men and women when adjusted for covariates (men: OR 2.16; 95%CI 1.34∼3.49; women: OR 2.26; 95%CI 1.51∼3.38). No association was observed between cLBP and the Framingham risk score, medication for hyperlipemia, hypertension, diabetes, and major cardiovascular risk factors (systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, glucose and smoking habits) in either men or women.

Conclusions

The prevalence of cLBP is correlated to a history of cardiovascular disease, but not to the major cardiovascular risk factors from the Framingham study. Further studies on whether these results were affected by psychological factors in patients with a history of cardiovascular diseases or whether new potential risk factors from the artery atherosclerosis hypothesis applying to Koreans exist are needed.     

Resistant Hypertension,Patient Characteristics,and Risk of Stroke

Background

Little is known about the prognosis of resistant hypertension (RH) in Asian population. This study aimed to evaluate the impacts of RH in Taiwanese patients with hypertension, and to ascertain whether patient characteristics influence the association of RH with adverse outcomes.

Methods and Results

Patients aged ≥45 years with hypertension were identified from the National Health Insurance Research Database. Medical records of 111,986 patients were reviewed in this study, and 16,402 (14.6%) patients were recognized as having RH (continuously concomitant use of ≥3 anti-hypertensive medications, including a diuretic, for ≥2 years). Risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE, a composite of all-cause mortality, acute coronary syndrome, and stroke [included both fatal and nonfatal events]) in patients with RH and non-RH was analyzed. A total of 11,856 patients experienced MACE in the follow-up period (average 7.1±3.0 years). There was a higher proportion of females in the RH group, they were older than the non-RH (63.1 vs. 60.5 years) patients, and had a higher prevalence of cardiovascular co-morbidities. Overall, patients with RH had higher risks of MACE (adjusted HR 1.17; 95%CI 1.09–1.26; p<0.001). Significantly elevated risks of stroke (10,211 events; adjusted HR 1.17; 95%CI 1.08–1.27; p<0.001), especially ischemic stroke (6,235 events; adjusted HR 1.34; 95%CI 1.20–1.48; p<0.001), but not all-cause mortality (4,594 events; adjusted HR 1.06; 95%CI 0.95–1.19; p = 0.312) or acute coronary syndrome (2,145 events; adjusted HR 1.17; 95%CI 0.99–1.39; p = 0.070) were noted in patients with RH compared to those with non-RH. Subgroup analysis showed that RH increased the risks of stroke in female and elderly patients. However, no significant influence was noted in young or male patients.

Conclusions

Patients with RH were associated with higher risks of MACE and stroke, especially ischemic stroke. The risks were greater in female and elderly patients than in male or young patients.     

Attempted Suicide in Bipolar Disorder: Risk Factors in a Cohort of 6086 Patients

Objective

Bipolar disorder is associated with high risk of self-harm and suicide. We wanted to investigate risk factors for attempted suicide in bipolar patients.

Method

This was a cohort study of 6086 bipolar patients (60% women) registered in the Swedish National Quality Register for Bipolar Disorder 2004–2011 and followed-up annually 2005–2012. Logistic regression was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios for fatal or non-fatal attempted suicide during follow-up.

Results

Recent affective episodes predicted attempted suicide during follow-up (men: odds ratio = 3.63, 95% CI = 1.76–7.51; women: odds ratio = 2.81, 95% CI = 1.78–4.44), as did previous suicide attempts (men: odds ratio = 3.93, 95% CI = 2.48–6.24; women: odds ratio = 4.24, 95% CI = 3.06–5.88) and recent psychiatric inpatient care (men: odds ratio = 3.57, 95% CI = 1.59–8,01; women: odds ratio = 2.68, 95% CI = 1.60–4.50). Further, those with many lifetime depressive episodes were more likely to attempt suicide. Comorbid substance use disorder was a predictor in men; many lifetime mixed episodes, early onset of mental disorder, personality disorder, and social problems related to the primary group were predictors in women.

Conclusion

The principal clinical implication of the present study is to pay attention to the risk of suicidal behaviour in bipolar patients with depressive features and more severe or unstable forms of the disorder.     

Incidence of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) in a Multicenter Cohort of HIV-Positive Patients in Spain 2004–2011: Increasing Rates of HCV Diagnosis but Not of HCV Seroconversions

Objectives

We aim to describe rates and risk factors of Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) diagnoses, follow-up HCV testing and HCV seroconversion from 2004–2011 in a cohort of HIV-positive persons in Spain.

Methods

CoRIS is a multicentre, open and prospective cohort recruiting adult HIV-positive patients naïve to antiretroviral therapy. We analysed patients with at least one negative and one follow-up HCV serology. Incidence Rates (IR) were calculated and multivariate Poisson regression was used to estimate adjusted Rates Ratios (aIRR).

Results

Of 2112 subjects, 53 HCV diagnoses were observed, IR = 0.93/100py (95%CI: 0.7–1.2). IR increased from 0.88 in 2004–05 to 1.36 in 2010–11 (aIRR = 1.55; 95%CI: 0.37–6.55). In men who have sex with men (MSM) from 0.76 to 1.10 (aIRR = 1.45; 95%CI: 0.31–6.82); in heterosexual (HTX) subjects from 1.19 to 1.28 (aIRR = 1.08; 95%CI: 0.11–10.24). HCV seroconversion rates decreased from 1.77 to 0.65 (aIRR = 0.37; 95%CI: 0.12–1.11); in MSM from 1.06 to 0.49 (aIRR = 0.46; 95%CI: 0.09–2.31); in HTX from 2.55 to 0.59 (aIRR = 0.23; 95%CI: 0.06–0.98). HCV infection risk was higher for injecting drug users (IDU) compared to HTX (aIRR = 9.63;95%CI: 2.9–32.2); among MSM, for subjects aged 40–50 compared to 30 or less (IRR = 3.21; 95%CI: 1.7–6.2); and among HTX, for female sex (aIRR = 2.35; 95%CI: 1.03–5.34) and <200 CD4-count (aIRR = 2.39; 95%CI: 0.83–6.89).

Conclusion

We report increases in HCV diagnoses rates which seem secondary to intensification of HCV follow-up testing but not to rises in HCV infection rates. HCV IR is higher in IDU. In MSM, HCV IR increases with age. Among HTX, HCV IR is higher in women and in subjects with impaired immunological situation.     

High Rates of HIV Seroconversion in Pregnant Women and Low Reported Levels of HIV Testing among Male Partners in Southern Mozambique: Results from a Mixed Methods Study

Introduction

Prevention of acute HIV infections in pregnancy is required to achieve elimination of pediatric HIV. Identification and support for HIV negative pregnant women and their partners, particularly serodiscordant couples, are critical. A mixed method study done in Southern Mozambique estimated HIV incidence during pregnancy, associated risk factors and factors influencing partner''s HIV testing.

Methods

Between April 2008 and November 2011, a prospective cohort of 1230 HIV negative pregnant women was followed during pregnancy. A structured questionnaire, HIV testing, and collection of dried blood spots were done at 2–3 scheduled visits. HIV incidence rates were calculated by repeat HIV testing and risk factors assessed by Poisson regression. A qualitative study including 37 individual interviews with men, women, and nurses and 11 focus group discussions (n = 94) with men, women and grandmothers explored motivators and barriers to uptake of male HIV testing.

Results

HIV incidence rate was estimated at 4.28/100 women-years (95%CI: 2.33–7.16). Significant risk factors for HIV acquisition were early sexual debut (RR 3.79, 95%CI: 1.04–13.78, p = 0.04) and living in Maputo Province (RR 4.35, 95%CI: 0.97–19.45, p = 0.05). Nineteen percent of women reported that their partner had tested for HIV (93% knew the result with 8/213 indicating an HIV positive partner), 56% said their partner had not tested and 19% did not know their partner test status. Of the 14 seroconversions, only one reported being in a serodiscordant relationship. Fear of discrimination or stigma was reported as a key barrier to male HIV testing, while knowing the importance of getting tested and receiving care was the main motivator.

Conclusions

HIV incidence during pregnancy is high in Southern Mozambique, but knowledge of partners'' HIV status remains low. Knowledge of both partners'' HIV status is critical for maximal effectiveness of prevention and treatment services to reach elimination of pediatric HIV/AIDS.     

High HIV Incidence among Persons Who Inject Drugs in Pakistan: Greater Risk with Needle Sharing and Injecting Frequently among the Homeless

Background

The incidence of HIV among persons who inject drugs (PWIDU) has fallen in many nations, likely due to successes of clean needle/syringe exchange and substance abuse treatment and service programs. However in Pakistan, prevalence rates for PWID have risen dramatically. In several cities, prevalence exceeded 20% by 2009 compared to a 2003 baseline of just 0.5%. However, no cohort study of PWID has ever been conducted.

Methods

We enrolled a cohort of 636 HIV seronegative PWID registered with three drop-in centers that focus on risk reduction and basic social services in Karachi. Recruitment began in 2009 (March to June) and PWID were followed for two years. We measured incidence rates and risk factors associated with HIV seroconversion.

Results

Incidence of HIV was 12.4 per 100 person-years (95% exact Poisson confidence interval [CI]: 10.3–14.9). We followed 474 of 636 HIV seronegative persons (74.5%) for two years, an annual loss to follow-up of <13 per 100 person years. In multivariable Cox regression analysis, HIV seroconversion was associated with non-Muslim religion (Adjusted risk ratio [ARR] = 1.7, 95%CI:1.4, 2.7, p = 0.03), sharing of syringes (ARR = 2.3, 95%CI:1.5, 3.3, p<0.0001), being homeless (ARR = 1.7, 95%CI:1.1, 2.5, p = 0.009), and daily injection of drugs (ARR = 1.1, 95%CI:1.0, 1.3, p = 0.04).

Conclusions

Even though all members of the cohort of PWID were attending risk reduction programs, the HIV incidence rate was very high in Karachi from 2009–2011. The project budget was low, yet we were able to retain three-quarters of the population over two years. Absence of opiate substitution therapy and incomplete needle/syringe exchange coverage undermines success in HIV risk reduction.     

The Synergistic Effect of Functional Status and Comorbidity Burden on Mortality: A 16-Year Survival Analysis

Objectives

The relationship between disability and comorbidity on mortality is widely perceived as additive in clinical models of frailty.

Design

National data were retrospectively extracted from medical records of community hospital.

Data Sources

There were of 12,804 acutely-disabled patients admitted for inpatient rehabilitation in Singapore rehabilitation community hospitals from 1996 through 2005 were followed up for death till 31 December 2011.

Outcome Measure

Cox proportional-hazards regression to assess the interaction of comorbidity and disability at discharge on all-cause mortality.

Results

During a median follow-up of 10.9 years, there were 8,565 deaths (66.9%). The mean age was 73.0 (standard deviation: 11.5) years. Independent risk factors of mortality were higher comorbidity (p<0.001), severity of disability at discharge (p<0.001), being widowed (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.38, 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.25–1.53), low socioeconomic status (aHR:1.40, 95%CI:1.29–1.53), discharge to nursing home (aHR:1.14, 95%CI:1.05–1.22) and re-admission into acute care (aHR:1.54, 95%CI:1.45–1.65). In the main effects model, those with high comorbidity had an aHR = 2.41 (95%CI:2.13–2.72) whereas those with total disability had an aHR = 2.28 (95%CI:2.12–2.46). In the interaction model, synergistic interaction existed between comorbidity and disability (p<0.001) where those with high comorbidity and total disability had much higher aHR = 6.57 (95%CI:5.15–8.37).

Conclusions

Patients with greater comorbidity and disability at discharge, discharge to nursing home or re-admission into acute care, lower socioeconomic status and being widowed had higher mortality risk. Our results identified predictive variables of mortality that map well onto the frailty cascade model. Increasing comorbidity and disability interacted synergistically to increase mortality risk.