Evidence of climatic niche shift during biological invasion

Niche-based models calibrated in the native range by relating species observations to climatic variables are commonly used to predict the potential spatial extent of species' invasion. This climate matching approach relies on the assumption that invasive species conserve their climatic niche in the invaded ranges. We test this assumption by analysing the climatic niche spaces of Spotted Knapweed in western North America and Europe. We show with robust cross-continental data that a shift of the observed climatic niche occurred between native and non-native ranges, providing the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. The models fail to predict the current invaded distribution, but correctly predict areas of introduction. Climate matching is thus a useful approach to identify areas at risk of introduction and establishment of newly or not-yet-introduced neophytes, but may not predict the full extent of invasions.     

Invasion of Old World Phragmites australis in the New World: precipitation and temperature patterns combined with human influences redesign the invasive niche

After its introduction into North America, Euro‐Asian Phragmites australis became an aggressive invasive wetland grass along the Atlantic coast of North America. Its distribution range has since expanded to the middle, south and southwest of North America, where invasive P. australis has replaced millions of hectares of native plants in inland and tidal wetlands. Another P. australis invasion from the Mediterranean region is simultaneously occurring in the Gulf region of the United States and some countries in South America. Here, we analysed the occurrence records of the two Old World invasive lineages of P. australis (Haplotype M and Med) in both their native and introduced ranges using environmental niche models (ENMs) to assess (i) whether a niche shift accompanied the invasions in the New World; (ii) the role of biologically relevant climatic variables and human influence in the process of invasion; and (iii) the current potential distribution of these two lineages. We detected local niche shifts along the East Coast of North America and the Gulf Coast of the United States for Haplotype M and around the Mississippi Delta and Florida of the United States for Med. The new niche of the introduced Haplotype M accounts for temperature fluctuations and increased precipitation. The introduced Med lineage has enlarged its original subtropical niche to the tropics‐subtropics, invading regions with a high annual mean temperature (> ca. 10 °C) and high precipitation in the driest period. Human influence is an important factor for both niches. We suggest that an increase in precipitation in the 20th century, global warming and human‐made habitats have shaped the invasive niches of the two lineages in the New World. However, as the invasions are ongoing and human and natural disturbances occur concomitantly, the future distribution ranges of the two lineages may diverge from the potential distribution ranges detected in this study.     

Is phylogeography helpful for invasive species risk assessment? The case study of the bark beetle genus Dendroctonus

Despite evidence that conspecific lineages may display different climatic tolerances, most invasion risk assessment tools are calibrated without considering phylogeographic information. This study aims to investigate the existence of intraspecific niche divergence within a group of insect pests and to explore how the inclusion of phylogeographic information into species distribution models may alter the estimation of the potential distribution of a species. We studied North American bark beetles belonging to the genus Dendroctonus, a group of pests of conifers that are listed as quarantine species in numerous countries. Most Dendroctonus species exhibit strong genetic divergence that appears to be geographically structured and shaped by historical events and biotic factors. We modeled all lineage distributions within five species, using MaxEnt and Boosted Regression Trees, and compared the results with the models fitted at the species scale. Multivariate analysis and niche similarity and equivalency tests were additionally performed to investigate the existence and magnitude of climatic niche divergence between conspecific lineages. We also tested the ability of lineage‐based models to predict the region invaded by D. valens in China. Conspecific lineages showed a climatic niche more similar than expected by chance, but displayed different climatic envelopes in their native range and, consequently, different estimates of potential distributions. We also observed that classical models calibrated using the entire range of the species could potentially under‐ or overestimate the potential range of the species when compared to a global prediction built by aggregating lineage‐based projections. This study showed that the invasive phylogeographic lineage of D. valens has invaded regions characterized by climatic conditions highly similar to those encountered in its native range suggesting that preadaptations to environment might have played a role in this invasion. This study highlights how our perception of the invasion risk of pests may be altered when integrating phylogeographic information.     

The naturalization status of African Spotted Orchid (Oeceoclades maculata) in Neotropics

Naturalization status of the African orchid introduced in the Neotropics, Oeceoclades maculata, was studied. Ecological niche modeling was applied to estimate the present distribution of the suitable habitats for the African Spotted Orchid. The similarity of the niches occupied by natural and invasive populations of the studied species was calculated. Moreover, future distribution of its suitable habitats was estimated on the basis of three different climatic change scenarios, and the potential further expansion scale was calculated based on range overlap test. Although currently O. maculata seems to have reached its potential limits of invasion in South America and as for now it should not spread to the new habitats, the species still has a potential of invasiveness in North America. The future climate changes will probably result in shifts in the distribution of African Spotted Orchid suitable niches thereby causing its expansion to the new areas.     

Niche Conservatism and Future Changes in the Potential Area Coverage of Arundina graminifolia,an Invasive Orchid Species from Southeast Asia

The Asian orchid, Arundina graminifolia, has been introduced to many locations over the last 50 yr, predominantly in South and Central America. A list of localities of A. graminifolia was compiled and used to model potential climatic niches based on the maximum entropy method. The differences are presented between niches occupied by native and invasive populations of A. graminifolia, and possible changes in the potential range of the species are discussed on the basis of various climate change scenarios. The coverage of habitats suitable for A. graminifolia will be reduced under future climate changes scenarios. The created niche distribution models indicated a more significant reduction in the potential ecological niches of the studied species in its invasive range. Nevertheless, areas with potentially suitable bioclimatic conditions for A. graminifolia should be monitored to prevent future uncontrolled invasion of the orchid into new habitats and to study its impact on the local ecosystems, as vast areas of its potential niche in the Americas are still unoccupied.     

American trees shift their niches when invading Western Europe: evaluating invasion risks in a changing climate

Four North American trees are becoming invasive species in Western Europe: Acer negundo, Prunus serotina, Quercus rubra, and Robinia pseudoacacia. However, their present and future potential risks of invasion have not been yet evaluated. Here, we assess niche shifts between the native and invasive ranges and the potential invasion risk of these four trees in Western Europe. We estimated niche conservatism in a multidimensional climate space using niche overlap Schoener's D, niche equivalence, and niche similarity tests. Niche unfilling and expansion were also estimated in analogous and nonanalogous climates. The capacity for predicting the opposite range between the native and invasive areas (transferability) was estimated by calibrating species distribution models (SDMs) on each range separately. Invasion risk was estimated using SDMs calibrated on both ranges and projected for 2050 climatic conditions. Our results showed that native and invasive niches were not equivalent with low niche overlap for all species. However, significant similarity was found between the invasive and native ranges of Q. rubra and R. pseudoacacia. Niche expansion was lower than 15% for all species, whereas unfilling ranged from 7 to 56% when it was measured using the entire climatic space and between 5 and 38% when it was measured using analogous climate only. Transferability was low for all species. SDMs calibrated over both ranges projected high habitat suitability in Western Europe under current and future climates. Thus, the North American and Western European ranges are not interchangeable irrespective of the studied species, suggesting that other environmental and/or biological characteristics are shaping their invasive niches. The current climatic risk of invasion is especially high for R. pseudoacacia and A. negundo. In the future, the highest risks of invasion for all species are located in Central and Northern Europe, whereas the risk is likely to decrease in the Mediterranean basin.     

Combined modelling of distribution and niche in invasion biology: a case study of two invasive Tetramorium ant species

Spatial modelling of species distributions has become an important tool in the study of biological invasions. Here, we examine the utility of combining distribution and ecological niche modelling for retrieving information on invasion processes, based on species occurrence data from native and introduced ranges. Specifically, we discuss questions, concerning (1) the global potential to spread to other ranges, (2) the potential to spread within established invasions, (3) the detectability of niche differences across ranges, and (4) the ability to infer invasion history through data from the introduced range. We apply this approach to two congeneric pavement ants, Tetramorium sp.E (formerly T. caespitum (Linnaeus 1758)) and T. tsushimae Emery 1925, both introduced to North America. We identify (1) the potential of both species to inhabit ranges worldwide, and (2) the potential of T. sp.E and T. tsushimae, to spread to 23 additional US states and to five provinces of Canada, and to 24 additional US states and to one province of Canada, respectively. We confirm that (3) niche modelling can be an effective tool to detect niche shifts, identifying an increased width of T. sp.E and a decreased width of T. tsushimae following introduction, with potential changes in niche position for both species. We make feasible that (4) combined modelling could become an auxiliary tool to reconstruct invasion history, hypothesizing admixture following multiple introductions in North America for T. sp.E, and a single introduction to North America from central Japan, for T. tsushimae. Combined modelling represents a rapid means to formulate testable explanatory hypotheses on invasion patterns and helps approach a standard in predictive invasion research.     

Cryptic niche conservatism among evolutionary lineages of an invasive lizard

Aim There is increasing evidence that the quality and breadth of ecological niches vary among individuals, populations, evolutionary lineages and therefore also across the range of a species. Sufficient knowledge about niche divergence among clades might thus be crucial for predicting the invasion potential of species. We tested for the first time whether evolutionary lineages of an invasive species vary in their climate niches and invasive potential. Furthermore, we tested whether lineage‐specific models show a better performance than combined models. Location Europe. Methods We used species distribution models (SDMs) based on climatic information at native and invasive ranges to test for intra‐specific niche divergence among mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) clades of the invasive wall lizard Podarcis muralis. Using DNA barcoding, we assigned 77 invasive populations in Central Europe to eight geographically distinct evolutionary lineages. Niche similarity among lineages was assessed and the predictive power of a combination of clade‐specific SDMs was compared with a combined SDM using the pooled records of all lineages. Results We recorded eight different invasive mtDNA clades in Central Europe. The analysed clades had rather similar realized niches in their native and invasive ranges, whereas inter‐clade niche differentiation was comparatively strong. However, we found only a weak correlation between geographic origin (i.e. mtDNA clade) and invasive occurrences. Clades with narrow realized niches still became successful invaders far outside their native range, most probably due to broader fundamental niches. The combined model using data for all invasive lineages achieved a much better prediction of the invasive potential. Conclusions Our results indicate that the observed niche differentiation among evolutionary lineages is mainly driven by niche realization and not by differences in the fundamental niches. Such cryptic niche conservatism might hamper the success of clade‐specific niche modelling. Cryptic niche conservatism may in general explain the invasion success of species in areas with apparently unsuitable climate.     

The importance (or lack thereof) of niche divergence to the maintenance of a northern species complex: the case of the long‐toed salamander (Ambystoma macrodactylum Baird)

The relative importance of ecological vs. nonecological factors for the origin and maintenance of species is an open question in evolutionary biology. Young lineages – such as the distinct genetic groups that make up the ranges of many northern species – represent an opportunity to study the importance of ecological divergence during the early stages of diversification. Yet, few studies have examined the extent of niche divergence between lineages in previously glaciated regions and the role of ecology in maintaining the contact zones between them. In this study, we used tests of niche overlap in combination with ecological niche models to explore the extent of niche divergence between lineages of the long‐toed salamander (Ambystoma macrodactylum Baird) species complex and to determine whether contact zones correspond to (divergent) niche limits. We found limited evidence for niche divergence between the different long‐toed salamander lineages, substantial overlap in the predicted distribution of suitable climatic space for all lineages and range limits that are independent of niche limits. These results raise questions as to the importance of ecological divergence to the development of this widespread species complex and highlight the potential for non‐ecological factors to play a more important role in the maintenance of northern taxa.     

Towards the top: niche expansion of Taraxacum officinale and Ulex europaeus in mountain regions of South America

In the current context of ongoing global change, the understanding of how the niches of invasive species may change between different geographical areas or time periods is extremely important for the early detection and control of future invasions. We evaluated the effect of climate and non‐climate variables and the sensitivity to various spatial resolutions (i.e. 1 and 20 km) on niche changes during the invasion of Taraxacum officinale and Ulex europaeus in South America. We estimated niche changes using a combination of principal components analyses (PCA) and reciprocal Ecological Niche Modelling (rENM). We further investigated future invasion dynamics under a severe warming scenario for 2050 to unravel the role of niche shifts in the future potential distribution of the species. We observed a clear niche expansion for both species in South America towards higher temperature, precipitation and radiation relative to their native ranges. In contrast, the set of environmental conditions only occupied in the native ranges (i.e. niche unfilling) were less relevant. The magnitude of the niche shifts did not depend on the resolution of the variables. Models calibrated with occurrences from native range predicted large suitable areas in South America (outside of the Andes range) where T. officinale and U. europaeus are currently absent. Additionally, both species could increase their potential distributions by 2050, mostly in the southern part of the continent. In addition, the niche unfilling suggests high potential to invade additional regions in the future, which is extremely relevant considering the current impact of these species in the Southern Hemisphere. These findings confirm that invasive species can occupy new niches that are not predictable from knowledge based only on climate variables or information from the native range.     

Invasion history of North American Canada thistle,Cirsium arvense

Aim Canada thistle (Cirsium arvense– Cardueae, Asteraceae) is one of the worst invasive plants world‐wide. Native to Eurasia, its unintentional introduction into North America now threatens the native flora and is responsible for enormous agricultural losses. The goals of this study are to: (1) reconstruct the evolutionary history of C. arvense and estimate how often it may have colonized North America, (2) compare the genetic diversity between European and North American populations to detect signs of demographic bottlenecks and/or patterns of population admixture, and (3) conduct bioclimatic comparisons to infer eventual niche shifts following this species’ introduction into North America. Location Europe and North America. Methods A total of 1522 individuals from 58 populations were investigated with six microsatellite markers. Estimates of heterozygosity (H_E) and allelic richness (R_S) were quantified for each population, and population structure was inferred via analyses of molecular variance (AMOVAs), principal components analyses (PCAs), Mantel tests and Bayesian clustering analyses. Climatic niche spaces were based on 19 bioclimatic variables extracted from approximately 32,000 locations covering the entire range, and compared using PCA and hierarchical cluster analysis. Results Although there is evidence of multiple introductions from divergent European lineages, North American populations of C. arvense exhibited significantly lower levels of genetic diversity than their putative ancestors. Bioclimatic comparisons pointed to a high degree of niche conservatism during invasion, but indicated that genotypes from the former USSR and Central European mountain chains were probably best adapted to invade North America upon entry into the continent. Main conclusions Genetic and historical data suggest that C. arvense first entered North America from Western Europe with the first European settlers, and was later introduced from Eastern Europe into the prairie states during the agricultural boom. The species went through a significant bottleneck following its introduction into the New World, but the level of genetic diversity remained high owing to admixture between genetically differentiated lineages and to a highly efficient outcrossing breeding system.     

Niche shift versus niche conservatism? Climatic characteristics of the native and invasive ranges of the Mediterranean house gecko (Hemidactylus turcicus)

Aim The use of ecological niche models (ENMs) to predict potential distributions of species is steadily increasing. A necessary assumption is that climatic niches are conservative, but recent findings of niche shifts during biological invasion indicate that this assumption is not always valid. Selection of predictor variables may be one reason for the observed shifts. In this paper we assess differences in climatic niches in the native and invaded ranges of the Mediterranean house gecko (Hemidactylus turcicus) in terms of commonly applied climate variables in ENMs. We analyse which variables are more conserved versus relaxed (i.e. subject to niche shift). Furthermore, we study the predictive power of different sets of climate variables. Location The Mediterranean region and North America. Methods We developed models using Maxent and various subsets of variables out of 19 bioclimatic layers including: (1) two subsets comprising almost all variables excluding only highly collinear ones; (2) two subsets with minimalistic variable sets of water availability and energy measures; (3) two subsets focused on temperature‐related parameters; (4) two subsets with precipitation‐related parameters; and (5) one subset comprising variables combining temperature and precipitation characteristics. Occurrence data from the native Mediterranean range were used to predict the potential introduced range in North America and vice versa. Degrees of niche similarity and conservatism were assessed using both Schoener's index and Hellinger distances. The significance of the results was tested using null models. Results The degree of niche similarity and conservatism varied greatly among the predictors and variable sets applied. Shifts observed in some variables could be attributed to active habitat selection while others apparently reflected background effects. Main conclusions The study was based on comprehensive occurrence data from all regions where Hemidactylus turcicus is present in Europe and North America, providing a robust foundation. Our results clearly indicate that the degree of conservatism of niches in H. turcicus largely varies among predictors and variable sets applied. Therefore, the extent of niche conservatism of variables applied should always be tested in ENMs. This has an important impact on studies of biological invasion, impacts of climate change and niche evolution.     

Realized niche shift associated with Galinsoga quadriradiata (Asteraceae) invasion in China

粗毛牛膝菊在中国的入侵与生态位漂移有关 在外来物种入侵和扩散过程中,生态位的漂移可能起到了重要作用。粗毛牛膝菊(Galinsoga quadriradiata) 在中国已造成了较为严重的入侵,占据了许多与其原产地不同的气候区。为此,本研究力图揭示粗毛牛膝菊入侵过程中的气候生态位漂移,分析其在该物种入 侵中国过程中可能发挥的作用。本研究结合粗毛牛膝菊原 产地和入侵地的分布点与气候数据, 采用Maxent模型预测了其在中国潜在的分布,并采用主成分分析的方法评估 了在入侵中国过程中粗毛牛膝菊气候生态位的漂移。模型结果显示,该物种原产地种群和入侵地种群之间只 有32.7%的生态位重叠,两个种群的生态位相似性较低(Schoener's D = 0.093, P < 0.005),这暗示了在其入侵过程中发生了生态位漂移。相比于其原产地种群,其在中国的入侵种群气候生态位的整体范围和中心都明 显地漂移向了温度更低、降水更少的区域;中国南方大部分区域属于粗毛牛膝菊的稳定适生区,而位于入侵 前沿的北方地区则存在局域适应和潜在拓殖区域。这些研究结果说明,粗毛牛膝菊在中国的入侵种群仍处于准平衡阶段,未来有可能继续向新的适生区扩散入侵,其生态位的变化有力地解释了为什么该物种在中国的入侵性强、危害范围大。     

Niche shifts during the global invasion of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae), revealed by reciprocal distribution models

Aim Niche‐based distribution models are often used to predict the spread of invasive species. These models assume niche conservation during invasion, but invasive species can have different requirements from populations in their native range for many reasons, including niche evolution. I used distribution modelling to investigate niche conservatism for the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus Skuse) during its invasion of three continents. I also used this approach to predict areas at risk of invasion from propagules originating from invasive populations. Location Models were created for Southeast Asia, North and South America, and Europe. Methods I used maximum entropy (Maxent ) to create distribution models using occurrence data and 18 environmental datasets. One native model was created for Southeast Asia; this model was projected onto North America, South America and Europe. Three models were created independently for the non‐native ranges and projected onto the native range. Niche overlap between native and non‐native predictions was evaluated by comparing probability surfaces between models using real data and random models generated using a permutation approach. Results The native model failed to predict an entire region of occurrences in South America, approximately 20% of occurrences in North America and nearly all Italian occurrences of A. albopictus. Non‐native models poorly predict the native range, but predict additional areas at risk for invasion globally. Niche overlap metrics indicate that non‐native distributions are more similar to the native niche than a random prediction, but they are not equivalent. Multivariate analyses support modelled differences in niche characteristics among continents, and reveal important variables explaining these differences. Main conclusions The niche of A. albopictus has shifted on invaded continents relative to its native range (Southeast Asia). Statistical comparisons reveal that the niche for introduced distributions is not equivalent to the native niche. Furthermore, reciprocal models highlight the importance of controlling bi‐directional dispersal between native and non‐native distributions.     

Integrating mechanistic and empirical model projections to assess climate impacts on tree species distributions in northwestern North America

Empirical and mechanistic models have both been used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions, and each modeling approach has its strengths and weaknesses. Here, we demonstrate an approach to projecting climate‐driven changes in species distributions that draws on both empirical and mechanistic models. We combined projections from a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) that simulates the distributions of biomes based on basic plant functional types with projections from empirical climatic niche models for six tree species in northwestern North America. These integrated model outputs incorporate important biological processes, such as competition, physiological responses of plants to changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, and fire, as well as what are likely to be species‐specific climatic constraints. We compared the integrated projections to projections from the empirical climatic niche models alone. Overall, our integrated model outputs projected a greater climate‐driven loss of potentially suitable environmental space than did the empirical climatic niche model outputs alone for the majority of modeled species. Our results also show that refining species distributions with DGVM outputs had large effects on the geographic locations of suitable habitat. We demonstrate one approach to integrating the outputs of mechanistic and empirical niche models to produce bioclimatic projections. But perhaps more importantly, our study reveals the potential for empirical climatic niche models to over‐predict suitable environmental space under future climatic conditions.     

Forecasting range shifts of a cold‐adapted species under climate change: are genomic and ecological diversity within species crucial for future resilience?

Cold‐adapted taxa are experiencing severe range shifts due to climate change and are expected to suffer a significant reduction of their climatically suitable habitats in the next few decades. However, it has been proposed that taxa with sufficient standing genetic and ecologic diversity will better withstand climate change. These taxa are typically more broadly distributed in geographic and ecological niche space, therefore they are likely to endure higher levels of populations loss than more restricted, less diverse taxa before the effects of those losses impact their overall diversity and resilience. Here, we explore the potential relationship between intraspecific genetic and ecological diversity and future resilience, using the cold‐adapted plant Primula farinosa. We employ high‐throughput sequencing to assess the genomic diversity of phylogeographic lineages in P. farinosa. Additionally, we use current climatic variables to define niche breadth and niche differentiation across lineages. Finally, we calibrate species distribution models (SDMs) and project the climatic preferences of each lineage on future climate to predict lineage‐specific shifts in climatically suitable habitats. Our study predicts relative persistence of future suitable habitats for the most genetically and ecologically diverse lineages of the cold‐adapted P. farinosa, but significant reduction of them for two out of its four lineages. While we do not provide specific experiments aimed at identifying the causal links between genetic diversity and resilience to climate change, our results indicate that greater genetic diversity and wider ecological breadth may buffer species responses to rapid climatic changes. This study further highlights the importance of integrating knowledge of intraspecific diversity for predicting species fate in response to climate change.     

Developmental life history is associated with variation in rates of climatic niche evolution in a salamander adaptive radiation*

Rates of climatic niche evolution vary widely across the tree of life and are strongly associated with rates of diversification among clades. However, why the climatic niche evolves more rapidly in some clades than others remains unclear. Variation in life history traits often plays a key role in determining the environmental conditions under which species can survive, and therefore, could impact the rate at which lineages can expand in available climatic niche space. Here, we explore the relationships among life-history variation, climatic niche breadth, and rates of climatic niche evolution. We reconstruct a phylogeny for the genus Desmognathus, an adaptive radiation of salamanders distributed across eastern North America, based on nuclear and mitochondrial genes. Using this phylogeny, we estimate rates of climatic niche evolution for species with long, short, and no aquatic larval stage. Rates of climatic niche evolution are unrelated to the mean climatic niche breadth of species with different life histories. Instead, we find that the evolution of a short larval period promotes greater exploration of climatic space, leading to increased rates of climatic niche evolution across species having this trait. We propose that morphological and physiological differences associated with variation in larval stage length underlie the heterogeneous ability of lineages to explore climatic niche space. Rapid rates of climatic niche evolution among species with short larval periods were an important dimension of the clade's adaptive radiation and likely contributed to the rapid rate of lineage accumulation following the evolution of an aquatic life history in this clade. Our results show how variation in a key life-history trait can constrain or promote divergence of the climatic niche, leading to variation in rates of climatic niche evolution among species.     

Genetic structure and ecological niche segregation of Indian gray mongoose (Urva edwardsii) in Iran

Combining genetic data with ecological niche models is an effective approach for exploring climatic and nonclimatic environmental variables affecting spatial patterns of intraspecific genetic variation. Here, we adopted this combined approach to evaluate genetic structure and ecological niche of the Indian gray mongoose (Urva edwardsii) in Iran, as the most western part of the species range. Using mtDNA, we confirmed the presence of two highly differentiated clades. Then, we incorporated ensemble of small models (ESMs) using climatic and nonclimatic variables with genetic data to assess whether genetic differentiation among clades was coupled with their ecological niche. Climate niche divergence was also examined based on a principal component analysis on climatic factors only. The relative habitat suitability values predicted by the ESMs for both clades revealed their niche separation. Between‐clade climate only niche comparison revealed that climate space occupied by clades is similar to some extent, but the niches that they utilize differ between the distribution ranges of clades. We found that in the absence of evidence for recent genetic exchanges, distribution models suggest the species occurs in different niches and that there are apparent areas of disconnection across the species range. The estimated divergence time between the two Iranian clades (4.9 Mya) coincides with the uplifting of the Zagros Mountains during the Early Pliocene. The Zagros mountain‐building event seems to have prevented the distribution of U. edwardsii populations between the western and eastern parts of the mountains as a result of vicariance events. Our findings indicated that the two U. edwardsii genetic clades in Iran can be considered as two conservation units and can be utilized to develop habitat‐specific and climate change‐integrated management strategies.     

Conservatism of ecological niche characteristics in North American plant species over the Pleistocene-to-Recent transition

Aim  To provide a test of the conservatism of a species' niche over the last 20,000 years by tracking the distribution of eight pollen taxa relative to climate type as they migrated across eastern North America following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).
Location  North America.
Methods  We drew taxon occurrence data from the North American pollen records in the Global Pollen Database, representing eight pollen types – all taxa for which ≥5 distinct geographic occurrences were available in both the present day and at the LGM (21,000 years ago ± 3000 years). These data were incorporated into ecological niche models based on present-day and LGM climatological summaries available from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to produce predicted potential geographic distributions for each species at present and at the LGM. The output for each time period was projected onto the 'other' time period, and tested using independent known occurrence information from that period.
Results  The result of our analyses was that all species tested showed general conservatism in ecological characteristics over the climate changes associated with the Pleistocene-to-Recent transition.
Main conclusions  This analysis constitutes a further demonstration of general and pervasive conservatism in ecological niche characteristics over moderate periods of time despite profound changes in climate and environmental conditions. As such, our results reinforce the application of ecological niche modelling techniques to the reconstruction of Pleistocene biodiversity distribution patterns, and to project the future potential distribution range of species in the face of global-scale climatic changes.