The cultural ecology of dietary change accompanying changing activity patterns among the shipibo

Shipibo Indians, who formed a village to establish a school and health clinic, are gradually depleting local fish and game resources. Men, recently adopting rice as a cash crop, tend to fish and hunt less than other men working only their subsistence gardens. Sale of fish and game in the village is becoming common, and pigs, once raised exclusively for sale to non-Shipibo, are now more regularly eaten and used for attracting agricultural labor. Other research has indicated that cash cropping often competes for workers' time in subsistence and so dietary change usually accompanies changing activity patterns. This paper explores the latter possibility by examining the relationship between cash cropping, wild meat procurement, and diet among the Shipibo. Time allocation and food consumption data are analyzed statistically to test a mathematical theory and model which relates indigenous work patterns to diet.     

The Scientific Basis for Shipibo Soil Classification and Land Use: Changes in Soil-Plant Associations with Cash Cropping

Since the Shipibo began cash cropping rice, their land use patterns have changed with proportionately less utilization of soft sandy soils, which are best for staple Musa production, and greater use of harder clayey soils, which are more suitable for rice and root crops. Statistical analysis of soil samples reveals the physical-chemical basis for Shipibo soil categories and indicates the effect ofswidden agriculture on levels of important soil characteristics. While cultural principles for planting have summarized these important ecological relationships in the past, they are often violated with increasing rice production. Examination of time allocation and food consumption data shows that changes in Shipibo land use patterns are associated with higher labor costs during brief periods of the agricultural cycle and greater dependence on domesticated animal foods.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Brief Communication</Emphasis>: Does Integration to the Market Threaten Agricultural Diversity? Panel and Cross-Sectional Data From a Horticultural-Foraging Society in the Bolivian Amazon

Trade theory predicts that the expansion of markets induces households to specialize and intensify production. We use plot-level data (n = 64) from a panel study of 2 village and cross-sectional data from 511 households in 59 villages of Tsimane Amerindians (Bolivia) to test the predictions. Results of bivariate analyses using both data sets suggest that as households integrate into the market economy they: (1) deforest more, (2) expand the area under rice cultivation, the principal cash crop, (3) sell more rice, and (4) intensify production by replanting more and by replanting newly cleared plots with maize, another cash crop. Results mesh with predictions about production specialization and intensification of trade theory. The analysis also produced results running counter to predictions from trade theory. For example, households and villages more integrated into the market planted more cassava and rice varieties, intercropped more, and put more crops in new fields than more autarkic households. Although the expansion of markets induces specialization and intensification in selected cash crops, it does not erase completely agricultural diversity. We hypothesize that despite the expansion of markets, households retain agricultural diversity because the market does not yet provide modern forms of self-insurance or well-functioning labor, credit, and product markets that would allow households to protect food consumption when faced with shocks. Without better insurance mechanisms, some agricultural diversity might still allow households to smooth consumption.     

Kofyar cash-cropping: Choice and change in indigenous agricultural development

Amid discussions of an agricultural crisis and the failure of largescale, mechanized, capitalintensive development schemes in Nigeria, the Kofyar of Plateau State provide a case study of farmers spontaneously expanding food crop production for the market, using indigenous lowenergy technology. Temporary, followed by permanent, migration from the Jos Plateau homeland to frontier settlements on the fertile Benue plains has been accompanied by a change from initial shifting cultivation in forest clearings to permanent, intensively tilled and fertilized homestead fields. Labor is organized primarily in households that have grown in size and complexity. Cooperative and exchange work groups are also important for meeting seasonal bottlenecks and providing the careful, disciplined cultivation that intensive agriculture requires. Kofyar now devote up to 50% of their labor to cash crops, and they purchase considerable quantities of manufactured goods and medical services. Their uncoerced adaptation to an environment of new land resources and market incentives suggests both the advantages of indigenous development with a minimum of state control or interference and the limitations of a conventional dependency theory perspective.     

Determinants of short-run supply of small ruminants in Botswana

This study utilizes pooled agricultural region data for the 1982–1987 period to estimate the short-run supply of sheep and goats in Botswana. Elasticity estimates indicate that a 1% increase (decrease) in rainfall at year t leads to a 0.53% rise (fall) in goat marketing in year t+1, and that a 1% rise (fall) in goat population (inventory) leads to a 0.15% rise (fall) in goat sales. The sheep equation reveals that a 1% increase (decrease) in sheep inventory results in a 1.23% rise (fall) in the number of sheep marketed, and suggests that rainfall has no impact on sheep sales. It is argued that the inelastic response of goat sales to changes in goat inventory reinforces the general view that livestock in Botswana are treated as a store of wealth, rather than as primarily a commercial activity for generating cash incomes. This tendency seems to be reduced in the case of sheep, where an elastic response of sales to changes in sheep inventory is observed. Producer prices are found to have no impact on small ruminant sale. The lack of responsiveness of supply to prices may be revealing the existence of inadequate access by most producers to organized markets for small ruminants. It is further argued that without promoting the development of such markets, other developmental efforts, particularly those geared at improving farm-level productivity will yield no positive outcomes, as farmers lack the cash incentive to invest in improved management and husbandry practices.     

Economic and political differentiation among Galole Orma women*

The Orma are cattle‐herders living close to Tana River in Kenya. This paper gives an outline of Orma propertyholding and of women's contributions to production in terms of labor. The relationship between control over resources (either outright ownership, rights over use, or indirect control through children's ownership) is discussed in relation to the influence women wield in issues considering sale of stock, decisions to shift or not, and the use of child labor. Formal and informal positions of power held by Orma women are analysed in relation to the effectiveness of women's influence over production decisions. The access that Orma women have to property varies with the degree of integration into the cash economy and to one's position on the nomadic‐sedentary continuum. With greater sedentarization and integration into cash economy women seem to lose control over economic resources in terms of outright ownership. They participate less in manual tasks of production. However, by a variety of informal and formal means, they gain more control over economic decision‐making.     

The market for medicinal plants in sapa and hanoi, vietnam

The Market for Medicinal Plants in Sapa and Hanoi, Vietnam. Economic Botany 59(4):377-385, 2005. This article describes the market for medicinal plants sold in the Vietnamese town of Sapa as well as in nine different markets in the Vietnamese capital city, Hanoi. A total of 44 medicinal plants were identified botanically, 27 of which are on sale in Sapa and 28 in Hanoi. Most buyers of medicinal plants in Sapa are members of the Vietnamese middle classes who go to Sapa on holidays. Medicinal plants are gathered or cultivated predominantly by members of ethnic minority groups (Hmong and Dao) who live in small hamlets, some located several hours from the town of Sapa. Sapa is one of the poorest districts in Vietnam with a GDP per household of only U.S. $322 in 2005, so the cash that people are able to earn from the sale of medicinal plants is very important. The article argues that the social roles of the weekend market in Sapa are equally important, as the market helps ethnic minorities to fulfil their needs for a social life beyond the village.     

Art and Residence Among the Shipibo Indians of Peru: A Study in Microacculturation

The geometric decorative art of the Shipibo Indians, Peruvian montaña, is produced by women balanced between a cultural imperative for personal innovation and submission to the constraints of traditional style. The experimental commissioning of painted Shipibo textile samplers using a rule-based approach reveals that additional variables in the Deetz-Longacre hypothesis associating female stylistic uniformity with matrilineal descent and matrilocal residence, such as the number of elements and rules used and the higher position in a hierarchy of complexity such solutions occupy, contribute to aesthetic micro-acculturation. That is done in the Shipibo case in a way that belies the presupposition that the mother is always the most important mentor in a girl's art, while supporting this archaeological theory's prediction that a group of coresiding females produces relatively homogeneous art. [ethnoarchaeology, art-style analysis, Deetz-Longacre hypothesis, South American Indians, Peru, Shipibo]     

Women and development: A highland New Guinea example

This paper presents an analysis of household variables and their relationship to success in cash cropping among the Gainj of Madang Province, Papua New Guinea. Censuses and household surveys from 1978, the year in which cash cropping began, and 1983 provide data that show different patterns of change in household structure for more and less commercially successful households. The results illustrate the importance of women's labor in economic development and the dynamic nature of the relationship between household structure and economic development.     

Green manure technology: Potential,usage, and limitations. A case study for lowland rice

The growing concern about the sustainability of tropical agricultural systems stands in striking contrast to a world-wide decline in the use of soil-improving legumes. It is timely to assess the future role that soil-improving legumes may play in agricultural systems. This paper reviews recent progress, potential, and limitations of green manure technology, using lowland rice cropping systems as the example.Only a few legume species are currently used as green manures in lowland rice. Sesbania cannabina is the most widely used pre-rice green manure for rice in the humid tropics of Africa and Asia. Astragalus sinicus is the prototype post-rice green manure species for the cool tropics. Stem-nodulating S. rostrata has been most prominent in recent research. Many green manure legumes show a high N accumulation (80–100 kg N ha^-1 in 45–60 days of growth) of which the major portion (about 80%) is derived from biological N₂ fixation. The average amounts of N accumulated by green manures can entirely substitute for mineral fertilizer N at current average application rates. With similar N use efficiencies, green manure N is less prone to loss mechanisms than mineral N fertilizers and may therefore contribute to long-term residual effects on soil productivity.Despite a high N₂-fixing potential and positive effects on soil physical and chemical parameters, the use of green manure legumes for lowland rice production has declined dramatically world-wide over the last 30 years. Land scarcity due to increasing demographic pressure and a relatively low price of urea N are probably the main determining factors for the long-term reduction in pre-rice green manure use. Post-rice green manures were largely substituted for by high-yielding early-maturing grain legumes. Unreliability of green manure performance, non-availability of seeds, and labor intensive operations are the major agronomic constraints. The recognition and extrapolation of niches where green manures have a comparative advantage may improve an often unfavorable economic comparison of green manure with cash crop or fertilizer N. Socio-economic factors like the cost of land, labor, and mineral N fertilizer are seen to determine the cost-effectiveness and thereby farmers' adoption of sustainable pre-rice green manure technology. Hydrology and soil texture determine the agronomic competitiveness of a green manure with N fertilizers and with alternative cash crops. In general, the niches for pre-rice green manure are characterized by a relatively short time span available for green manure growth and a soil moisture regime that is unfavorable for cash crops (flood-prone rainfed lowlands with coarse-textured soils).Given the numerous agronomic and socio-economic constraints, green manure use is not seen to become a relevant feature of favourable rice-growing environments in the foreseeable future. However, in environments where soil properties and hydrology are marginal for food crop production, but which farmers may be compelled to cultivate in order to meet their subsistence food requirements, green manures may have a realistic and applicable potential.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Kuth</Emphasis> (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Saussurea lappa</Emphasis>) cultivation in the cold desert environment of the Lahaul valley,northwestern Himalaya,India: arising threats and need to revive socio-economic values

Surveys were conducted in the cold desert environment of the Lahaul valley in the northwestern Himalaya for assessing the past and present status of Kuth (Saussurea lappa) cultivation. The findings reveal that this age-old practice now is in bottleneck. Main factors responsible for this setback to the species were the lengthy cultivation cycle, small land holdings, and even fluctuating and relatively low market prices. Owing to these constraints farmers have now started replacing cultivation of this threatened herb with pea (Pisum sativum L.), potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) and hop (Humulus lupulus L.). These crops obtained popularity due to comparatively more economic returns as well as their easy adaptability to the short growth season of the cold desert environment. Kuth cultivation in this region is among the interesting examples of domesticating wild medicinal herb by some innovative farmers during the 1920s. However, in the recent past farmers have been less interested to continue this practice due to its larger cultivation cycle, more profits with cash crops like pea and potato, and permit formalities at the time of export from the valley. In addition to being the oldest cash crop in the cold desert environment, Kuth is an endangered medicinal herb that has to be conserved on a priority basis. This study attempts to find out potential measures such as regular revision of market rates, development of existing uncultivable land under medicinal plant cultivation and strengthening the marketing network through establishment of federations of farmers at village level to revive cultivation of this important species.     

Women's changing economic roles with pastoral sedentarization: Varying strategies in alternate Rendille communities

The trend of pastoral sedentarization in Africa presents new economic opportunities to women through the sale of dairy products, agricultural produce, and labor. This study of Rendille of northern Kenya shows a variety of economic strategies pursued by women in nomadic pastoral, settled agro-pastoral, and town communities. Results of household budgets and interviews with married women indicate that urban centers attract both wealthier Rendille women selling milk and poorer women engaged in wage-labor and petty commodity trade; time allocation data shows that women living in towns work as strenuously as those in pastoral communities, while men in towns work less than in pastoral communities and less than women in both communities; and anthropometric data of women and children suggest that increases in women's income may have a beneficial effect on the nutrition and well-being of their children.     

The evolution of daily food sharing: A Bayesian phylogenetic analysis

Some human subsistence economies are characterized by extensive daily food sharing networks, which may buffer the risk of shortfalls and facilitate cooperative production and divisions of labor among households. Comparative studies of human food sharing can assess the generalizability of this theory across time, space, and diverse lifeways. Here we test several predictions about daily sharing norms–which presumably reflect realized cooperative behavior–in a globally representative sample of nonindustrial societies (the Standard Cross-Cultural Sample), while controlling for multiple sources of autocorrelation among societies using Bayesian multilevel models. Consistent with a risk-buffering function, we find that sharing is less likely in societies with alternative means of smoothing production and consumption such as animal husbandry, food storage, and external trade. Further, food sharing was tightly linked to labor sharing, indicating gains to cooperative production and perhaps divisions of labor. We found a small phylogenetic signal for food sharing (captured by a supertree of human populations based on genetic and linguistic data) that was mediated by food storage and social stratification. Food sharing norms reliably emerge as part of cooperative economies across time and space but are culled by innovations that facilitate self-reliant production.     

Cross-sectional growth of young Shipibo Indian children in eastern Peru

This paper reports measurements of weight and recumbent length for a cross-sectional sample of 149 Shipibo infants and children between birth and 35.99 months of age from eight villages in the Peruvian Amazon Basin. The Shipibo are an Amerindian population experiencing a period of local environmental disruption and rapid cultural change. Compared with the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) references values, Shipibo children are smaller and shorter than American children. The differences are least at birth. Deficits in linear growth begin between 3 and 6 months of age and continue through 35.99 months of age. Weight-for-length ratios are generally adequate compared to the NCHS values in all age groups. This pattern of growth is similar to that reported for non-Amerindians in many developing countries and is assumed to represent a pattern of growth under mild-to-moderate undernutrition. High infant mortality rates suggest that an interaction of suboptimal nutrition and infectious diseases is contributing to the pattern of growth retardation seen; however, genetic differences cannot yet be discounted.     

The trade in bear parts from Myanmar: an illustration of the ineffectiveness of enforcement of international wildlife trade regulations

We assessed the effectiveness of national and international wildlife trade regulations in Asia by surveying four wildlife markets in Myanmar for bears and bear parts. Bears are protected in Myanmar and neighbouring countries, and are included in CITES Appendix I, precluding international trade. Three of the four wildlife markets were situated at the border with neighbouring countries (China and Thailand) whereas the fourth, situated in Myanmar’s interior, also catered to international markets. During seven checks (1999–2006) we recorded 1,200 bear parts, representing a minimum of 215 individual bears. Most items were from Asiatic black bears Ursus thibetanus but also sun bear Helarctos malayanus parts were offered for sale. There were significant temporal and spatial differences in what items were offered for sale. Prices were low (USD 4–40 per item) and the total monetary value of the items for sale was USD 6,500–9,500 (not including gall bladders). Carcasses, skulls, canines, paws, claws, whole skins, pieces of skin, gall bladders and derivates, were openly displayed, with vendors being frank about prices, origin, and potential buyers. Only in the interior were prices quoted in the local currency; at the other three markets currencies of the neighbouring countries were used. Legal (international) trade in bears or bear parts from Myanmar is virtually non-existent, and the observed trade in bear parts strongly indicates a serious lack of enforcement effort. International trade in bear parts from Myanmar is significant, and open, and we conclude that the enforcement of wildlife trade regulations, at least when they concerns bear species, have by and large failed.     

The speculator's bread: what is behind rising food prices?

Speculators increasingly invest into food markets for financial gain, with potentially devastating consequences for millions of poor people who cannot afford food at inflated prices....the market price of agricultural commodities is more important than those of nearly all other productsMost citizens in developed countries buy and consume their food without any consideration of how it is produced or how it gets from the field or slaughterhouse to the supermarket. They take for granted that they can afford it and do not care about its production and the economic, financial and other factors that eventually determine its price on the supermarket shelf. However, the market price of agricultural commodities is more important than those of nearly all other products. Increasing prices can cause hunger for millions of people and enormous political repercussions. In 2007–2008, a price explosion for grain and other commodities caused malnutrition among an estimated 115 million people and triggered hunger revolts in several nations. The prices subsequently dropped, only to soar again three years later (Fig 1), surpassing previous highs by the end of 2010. The revolt in Tunisia in January 2011 that eventually led to the government''s downfall was originally triggered by rising food prices.Open in a separate windowFigure 1FAO Food Price Index values from 1990 to 2010“The FAO Food Price Index is a measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities. It consists of the average of five commodity group price indices (representing 55 quotations), weighted with the average export shares of each of the groups for 2002–2004” (http://www.fao.org). FAO, Food and Agricultural Organization.Which factors or mechanisms determine the market price of food? If a drought or a flood were to destroy harvests in wheat-exporting countries such as Australia or Russia, it would certainly drive up the price of wheat. Yet, there is also ongoing debate about whether and how the 2007–2008 price spike might have been driven by financial speculation in commodity markets. This is not only a media debate, but also of scientific interest as it gets to the heart of economic theory; indeed, various research articles have tried to analyse and explain the causes of the 2007–2008 price spike.The revolt in Tunisia in January 2011 that eventually led to the government''s downfall was originally triggered by rising food pricesThe global market-prices for agricultural commodities are determined in different ways, depending on the commodity. Some products, such as rice, are mainly traded nationally, with only a small share being traded internationally; other commodities are traded in large quantities on international commodity exchanges, particularly in the USA. As the USA is one of the main producers and exporters of wheat, corn and soybean—and has a liberal market tradition—these exchanges are important for both the US and the global agricultural industry. In Europe, commodity exchanges for agricultural products play a lesser role, partly owing to the former Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union (EU), which tightly regulated the production of foodstuffs. However, this policy is now changing and exchanges are set to have a more important role in Europe too. The Paris commodity exchange is already a relevant marketplace for wheat, and the London commodity exchange has an important role in the global trade of coffee, cocoa and sugar.The price of any commodity should reflect the levels of supply and demand. Of course, fluctuations occur and are sometimes justified by fundamental factors, for example a bad harvest or increased demand. However, other external factors—such as a lack of information, asymmetries, externalities, conflicts of interest and agency problems—can also influence prices on commodity markets. In addition, outright speculation (for instance by hoarding), price bubbles and even market manipulation can repeatedly influence prices. The largest grain companies in the world, such as ADM, Cargill, Dreyfus and Bunge, have an interest in maximizing their profits and do so by buying and selling commodities at the most suitable time. Even farmers speculate on commodity markets, for example by withholding their harvest when they expect a price rise. To keep these factors and interests under control it is necessary and indeed legitimate to regulate and control markets, not just for food commodities.Commodities are not only traded physically on ‘spot'' or cash markets, but also subject to forward buying through ‘futures''. A future is a contract between a producer—that is, a farmer—and a buyer that specifies the amount, the price and the delivery date of a purchase. Similarly, buyers—such as millers—can use futures to buy a certain amount of grain at a guaranteed price ahead of time. Many farmers and end-users take advantage of futures to pre-sell or pre-purchase agricultural goods to insure themselves against market fluctuations. This ‘hedging'' reduces their risks and enables them to invest more safely.Intermediary traders ensure that the two sides meet. Traditionally, these traders are established firms that buy and sell futures from producers and to consumers, thereby providing the necessary liquidity. They shoulder the risks and gain their profits from the difference between the price stipulated in a future and the final market-price. These firms, naturally, have a profound knowledge and understanding of the commodity markets in which they are trading.In addition, such trading can take place both on exchanges (then called ‘futures trading'') and bilaterally ‘over-the-counter'' (OTC). Modern trading in commodity futures began in the USA during the mid-nineteenth century. Chicago, where the first modern wheat futures were traded, is still the largest and most important marketplace for agricultural commodities in the world, even though Asian countries have contested this in recent years.As futures no longer require the seller to possess the actual goods and because physical delivery is replaced by cash exchanges, their volume can be separated from the actual quantity of the commodity; their volume can also increase indefinitely as long as enough intermediaries want to deal with them. In the past, though, relatively few investors and intermediaries speculated on future markets. Moreover, regulatory agencies can and have imposed rules to limit the extent of speculation, for instance by regulating delivery dates, delivery locations, the timeframe for buying, certified stocks, storage fees, position limits, price limits and other factors.However, an increasing number of investors from outside the traditional markets—including banks, and pension and investment funds—have begun to speculate on agricultural futures exchanges. These large investors not only push the exploitation of price trends, but also—in contrast to the traditional intermediaries—are often not familiar with the cash market and the fundamentals. These outside speculators also often invest for reasons that have nothing to do with the cash market, for instance to protect themselves against price fluctuations on financial markets....an increasing number of investors from outside the traditional markets—including banks, and pension and investment funds—have begun to speculate on agricultural futures exchangesThis is the main reason that the US government imposed strict limits for financial speculation on commodity future exchanges. Only commercial participants with an interest in hedging were exempted. However, these rules and limits have been slowly eroded or removed. In 1991, one financial investor managed to get an official exemption from the limits in order to hedge his financial risk. In the following years, more traders were granted such exemptions or limit expansions. In 2000, the Commodity Futures Modernization Act exempted OTC trading from regulatory oversight and control. As a result of laxer oversight, other speculators joined the market, especially after the beginning of the financial crisis in 2006. These newcomers include banks such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank; pension funds, such as the California State Teachers'' Retirement System; and hedge funds. A good deal of their trading is carried out through ‘swaps'', a type of OTC instrument.As these new and powerful speculators have entered the market, the total volume of new speculative investments in commodity indexes has increased more than tenfold in five years...As these new and powerful speculators have entered the market, the total volume of new speculative investments in commodity indexes has increased more than tenfold in five years: from an estimated $15 billion in 2003 to around $200 billion in 2008. ‘Index funds'', which aim to imitate the cash markets with futures, rose particularly high: between 2006 and 2008, index traders increased the demand for wheat futures from 33% to 100%. The number of daily outstanding contracts held by index traders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange grew from approximately 30,000 in early 2004 to 220,000 in mid-2008 (US Senate PSI, 2009).The unexpected price hike in 2007–2008 has triggered a lively debate among economists about whether this increased speculation in futures has driven up cash prices. This discussion is both a theoretical debate about how futures markets work and an empirical debate about the reasons behind the price rise. The main questions are: Can speculation alone move the prices of futures and can there be excessive, that is, harmful, speculation in futures? Can futures prices influence the cash markets, and if so, how?Some claim that that the amount of trading in futures is irrelevant to the real price, because it is always a “zero-sum game” between traders (Irwin & Sanders, 2010). For every position that bets on a rising price (long position), there is a counterparty which bets on a falling price (short position). By this view, the amount of trading is detached from the price level. Indeed, it is not possible to demonstrate an unequivocal relationship between the amount of trading and the price.Yet, a large in-flow or out-flow of money can create a price shift. Statistical research has demonstrated the growing interdependence of commodity markets, both between the markets themselves and with financial markets. Tang & Xiong (2010) found that “concurrent with the rapidly growing index investment in commodities markets since the early 2000s, futures prices of different commodities in the US became increasingly correlated with each other. [...] In contrast, such commodity price co-movements were absent in China, which refutes growing commodity demands from emerging economies as the driver.”Silvennoinen & Thorp (2010) observe, “higher and more variable correlations between commodity futures and stock returns.” This trend—often called financialization—has also been observed by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD, 2009; Mayer, 2009). Similarly, an investigation by the US Senate took the view that the price of US futures had been influenced by excessive speculation (US Senate PSI, 2009).The second question, which is more relevant to consumers, remains: how can futures prices influence the cash price? Theoretically, the cash price should always converge with the futures price once the future is delivered. Some economists therefore assume that if futures are over-priced, the cash market will simply solve this problem by speculative arbitrage trading: buying something at a lower price and immediately reselling it for a higher price. Futures markets, in this view, are always driven by the cash markets, which themselves are determined by the fundamental mechanisms of supply and demand (Irwin & Sanders, 2010). However, it is logical to assume that futures markets have an influence on cash markets because, as all economists agree, they should predict the future price on the cash markets.Thus: how does speculation in futures influence prices on cash markets and how long does the effect last? Some scientists at the UN Food and Agricultural Organization were able to identify only short-term effects (Dreschler et al, 2010), but what does short-term mean? Different economists use different definitions: some define short-term as one day, others one week and some others one month. However, if the same effect leads to a one-month deviation, why should it not cause a deviation of many months? And what is the effect of a month-long deviation for people who need to buy food every day? As the famous economist John Maynard Keynes noted, in the long run we are all dead. Indeed, financial speculators cannot suspend the laws of supply and demand in the long-term, but they are able to cause short- to medium-term price increases, which, for the world at large, is bad enough.Traders are usually open about the effects of their trading. In April 2006, a hedge fund manager commented: “There is so much money going into commodity markets that it almost doesn''t matter how fundamentals behave” (WDM, 2010). At the same time, the investment bank Merill Lynch estimated that commodity prices had increased by 50% through speculation (Thornton, 2006). One of the most well-known speculators, George Soros, commented that, “Every speculation is also rooted in reality [however] speculators create the bubble that lies above everything. Their expectations, their gambling on futures help drive up prices, and their business distorts prices, which is especially true for commodities. It is like hoarding food in the midst of a famine, only to make profits on rising prices. That should not be possible” (WDM, 2010).Furthermore, if the futures price is higher than the cash price, traders on the cash market are inclined to store food in order to gain higher incomes. This is a common occurrence in hard commodity markets, such as oil or metal. However, hoarding of agricultural commodities driven by expectations of higher prices can also take place. Finally, divergent cash and futures prices, along with market volatility, cause other problems; higher costs are required for risk management and hedging, which harms the food business and ultimately affects food supply and prices (US Senate PSI, 2009).Many observers initially argued that the price spike of 2007–2008 was related to bad harvests, rising demand from importing countries—notably China—and the growing production of biofuels. A leading study by the World Bank was perhaps most influential at the time (World Bank, 2008). However, even when it became clear in early 2008 that harvests had recovered, the prices still rose. Moreover, prices on the cash and futures markets plummeted from mid-2008 onwards although demand from emerging countries remained high, even during the financial crisis. Some researchers are still not convinced that the 2007–2008 price spike was caused by speculation and continue to point to the increasing demand for biofuels, depreciation of the US dollar and the rising price of oil to explain this phenomenon (Headey & Fan, 2010).Nonetheless, criticism of financial speculations on commodity markets has been growing. In 2009, US hedge fund manager Michael W. Masters testified to the US Senate that passive investment, such as index funds, “provides no benefits to the markets while it exacts a heavy toll” (Masters, 2009). Accordingly, the US Senate and various scholars found signs of excessive and harmful speculation in US wheat markets (US Senate PSI, 2009; Lines, 2010; Gilbert, 2010). Headey & Fan (2010) reject the argument that rising demand from emerging countries could have caused the spike, writing that “low interest rates, and investment portfolio adjustments in favour of commodities” have an important role in price formation. The World Bank, in a recent working paper (Baffes & Haniotis, 2010), has also recognized the influence of financial speculators on prices: “We conjecture that index fund activity [...] played a key role during the 2008 price spike. Biofuels played some role too, but much less than initially thought. And we find no evidence that alleged stronger demand by emerging economies had any effect on world prices.” In a more recent paper by the UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food, Olivier de Schutter (2010) found that “a significant portion of the price increases and volatility of essential food commodities can only be explained by the emergence of a speculative bubble.”Another reason to assume that speculation is a harmful influence is that the oil-price peak of 2008 also seems to have been caused by speculation (Masters, 2009; Chevalier et al, 2010). This is not an independent explanatory variable for the price rise in agricultural commodities, but it highlights the impact of speculation.In addition to index funds, hedge funds have become increasingly important players in commodity markets. These funds, which can invest more freely than any other type of fund, often take highly speculative long and short positions to profit from rising or falling prices. Hedge funds can also move huge amounts of money. In July 2010, a single hedge fund bought almost all cocoa futures on the London commodity exchange, in an attempt to force cocoa buyers to buy from it at a monopolistic price. Afterwards, a group of cocoa processing companies called on the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange to prevent such speculations and threatened to go to the New York commodity exchange, where tighter regulations are in force.Today, there is again a debate about whether speculation has a role in rising prices. On the one hand, harvest losses for wheat crops in July 2010 would justify a slight price rise. On the other hand, National Farmers Union representative Doug Sombke said at a US Commodity Futures Trading Commission hearing in the USA, “I think speculators have created a huge mess here for us. Farmers are feeling this today” (Reuters, 2010). Klaus Josef Lutz, CEO of BayWa, one of Europe''s biggest grain traders, commented that, “70 percent of the price rise can be blamed on speculators” (Handelsblatt, 2010). Finally, wheat is not nearly as scarce as the price rise would suggest: the global 2010 harvest is estimated to be the third largest of all time (FAO, 2010a).Higher food prices not only cause immediate problems; by reducing the available money for health care and education, they also produce negative long-term effectsTwo-thirds of developing countries are net importers of basic food commodities, even if the percentage of farmers in these countries is much higher than in industrialized countries. Furthermore, the relative household expenditure on food is much higher in developing countries: 60–80% compared with approximately 15% in the EU. This makes developing countries particularly vulnerable to price rises. They were hit hard in 2007–2008 and are again facing serious problems; the recent revolt in Tunisia being the most visible uprising sparked by food prices. Higher food prices not only cause immediate problems; by reducing the money available for health care and education, they also produce negative long-term effects.Some developing countries are commodity producers. As such, they profit, more or less, from price increases. However, their small-scale farmers are the weakest link in the production chain and profit the least from price rises. Apart from speculators, it is larger intermediaries, retailers or bigger farms that reap most of the profits (Höffler & Owour Ochieng, 2009).Growing ‘financialization'' makes it vital to reform commodity futures markets and set clear limits for speculation. Trading by financial speculators must take place on regulated and transparent commodity exchanges. The number and influence of speculators must be controlled through market and position limits. As Ann Berg, former commodity trader, stressed at a recent FAO special committee, “Over 150 years of futures trading history demonstrates that position limits are necessary in commodities of finite supply to curb excessive speculation and hoarding” (FAO, 2010b). Furthermore, some types of investment, such as index funds, could be strongly restricted. Generally, a legal demarcation between the commodities futures markets and the financial markets and a special agency to oversee it is required, such as the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.The USA has learned its lesson from the past few years and is once again restricting financial speculation through reforms introduced in July 2010The USA has learned its lesson from the past few years and is once again restricting financial speculation through reforms introduced in July 2010. The US government aims to return OTC trading—mostly carried out as swaps—to multilateral trading and clearing platforms. Higher transparency requirements will apply and financial speculators will once again be limited by stricter position limits, without exemptions.As mentioned above, fewer agricultural commodities are traded on a large scale in the EU, but the London and Paris commodity exchanges still exert an influence. Moreover, stricter regulations in the USA could induce speculators to move their activities to European exchanges, even though there are strong position limits, at least at the Paris commodity exchange. Reforms of the financial markets in the EU are therefore necessary, and these are currently being debated. Michel Barnier, the European Commissioner for Internal Market and Services, has rightfully called speculation with food commodities a scandal. Whether his words will be followed with actions remains to be seen.In September 2010, the European Commission released draft regulations for OTC derivatives that include plans to create new trading platforms called ‘central counterparties''. The draft regulations require that OTC trades are limited and fulfil transparency requirements (EC, 2010). Along with these, two other directives will be revised: one on markets in financial instruments, such as futures, and one on market abuse. However, the EU has not yet acknowledged that commodities markets are not the same as financial markets. It is therefore not certain whether they will propose and pass appropriate regulation, which ought to include a special regulatory body, full transparency and position limits....farmers and buyers have a strong interest in managing their risks, and futures markets have proven to be an appropriate, if imperfect, mechanism...Given the problems that commodity futures markets have caused, it might be tempting to renounce them. Conversely, farmers and buyers have a strong interest in managing their risks, and futures markets have proven to be an appropriate, if imperfect, mechanism by which to do so. Other measures such as harvest assurances bring their own disadvantages. Moreover, local markets can also cause problems, as can political measures, especially when these include export bans.Nonetheless, it is prudent to explore alternatives. These could include regional or bilateral treaties between states, which have been successfully practised in several cases in Asia. The build-up of higher, more reliable reserves at the national, regional or global level is another option for dealing with volatility and uncertainty. Such reserves could also be virtual, as has been suggested by one leading agricultural researcher, Professor Joachim von Braun from Bonn University in Germany (von Braun, 2010).In the meantime, banks and hedge funds have also begun to invest in cash markets. In 2009, Goldman Sachs, Barclays and JP Morgan reportedly controlled physical commodities worth £16 billion—more than three times the amount they controlled in 2008. The head of one cocoa retail company commented on this development: “A lot of branch-alien money has poured into the market. The banks that are part of the game now are not giving us loans anymore or require much more collateral, as the markets have become more volatile. This is really grotesque” (Handelsblatt, 2010). This seems to be the next step in the ‘financialization'' of commodity markets, but the central question is whether banks should be able to buy our food or if they should get back to their initial purpose: serving the economy with credit.Food markets should serve the interests of people and not those of financial investorsFood markets should serve the interests of people and not those of financial investors. In this regard, politics has failed to protect food markets from excessive speculation. As former US President Bill Clinton said in a speech at the United Nations'' World Food Day on 16 October, 2008, “We need the World Bank, the IMF, all the big foundations, and all the governments to admit that, for 30 years, we all blew it, including me when I was President. We were wrong to believe that food was like some other product in international trade, and we all have to go back to a more responsible and sustainable form of agriculture” (Clinton, 2008).Given that hunger still exists in the world, even small price increases that are driven by financial investment are scandalous. We must not allow food to become a purely financial asset.? Open in a separate windowMarkus Henn

Science & Society Series on Food and Science

This article is part of the EMBO reports Science & Society series on ''food and science'' to highlight the role of natural and social sciences in understanding our relationship with food. We hope that the series serves a delightful menu of interesting articles for our readers.     

Gonadal development in a giant threatened reef fish,the humphead wrasse Cheilinus undulatus,and its relationship to international trade

An opportunity arose to obtain humphead wrasse Cheilinus undulatus specimens between 2006 and 2009 from Indonesia, the major source and exporting country of this species, making study on its early gonad development possible for the first time. Protogynous hermaphroditism, previously proposed for this species, was confirmed in this study. Based on histological examination of 178 specimens, mainly <500 mm total length (L_T) and ranging from 208 to 1290 mm L_T (119·1 g to 43·0 kg whole body mass), the minimum body sizes for female and male sexual maturation were determined to be 650 and 845 mm L_T, respectively. Primary male development through juvenile sexual differentiation was not detected. A unique blind pouch, with a possible sperm storage function and associated with the testis, was reported for the first time in the Labridae. In Hong Kong retail markets, the global trading centre for this valuable species, live C. undulatus on sale for food were dominated by body sizes <500 mm L_T between 1995 and 2009, reflecting an international trade largely focused on juveniles. In consideration of these findings, and given the threatened status of this species, management for C. undulatus capture and trade nationally and internationally are discussed with recommendations for ensuring sufficient spawning biomass in exploited populations and for sustainable trade.     

A Farm to Fork Risk Assessment for the Use of Wastewater in Agriculture in Accra,Ghana

The need to minimise consumer risk, especially for food that can be consumed uncooked, is a continuing public health concern, particularly in places where safe sanitation and hygienic practices are absent. The use of wastewater in agriculture has been associated with disease risks, though its relative significance in disease transmission remains unclear. This study aimed at identifying key risk factors for produce contamination at different entry points of the food chain. Over 500 produce and ready-to-eat salad samples were collected from fields, markets, and kitchens during the dry and wet seasons in Accra, Ghana, and over 300 soil and irrigation water samples were collected. All samples were analysed for E. coli, human adenovirus and norovirus using standard microbiological procedures, and real time RT-PCR. Finally, critical exposures associated with microbial quality of produce were assessed through observations and interviews. The study found that over 80% of produce samples were contaminated with E. coli, with median concentrations ranging from 0.64 to 3.84 Log E. coli/g produce. Prepared salad from street food vendors was found to be the most contaminated (4.23 Log E. coli/g), and that consumption of salad exceeded acceptable health limits. Key risk factors identified for produce contamination were irrigation water and soil at the farm level. Storage duration and temperature of produce had a significant influence on the quality of produce sold at markets, while observations revealed that the washed water used to rinse produce before sale was dirty. The source of produce and operating with a hygiene permit were found to influence salad microbial quality at kitchens. This study argues for a need to manage produce risk factors at all domains along the food chain, though it would be more effective to prioritise at markets and kitchens due to cost, ease of implementation and public health significance.     

The nutrition transition in amazonia: rapid economic change and its impact on growth and development in Ribeirinhos

The goal of this longitudinal study was to assess the impact of economic change and increased market integration on subsistence strategies, living conditions, growth, and nutritional status of Ribeirinhos living in the rural Amazon, Brazil. Data on weight, height, skinfolds, and circumferences, as well as data on economic strategies and living conditions were collected from 469 individuals in 2002 and 429 in 2009. Of these, 204 individuals were measured on both occasions. Independent and paired t‐tests were used to identify changes in nutritional status over time in the larger sample and smaller, longitudinal subsample, respectively. Multiple linear regressions were used to examine the relationship between changes in economic/living conditions and nutritional status in the longitudinal subsample. Results indicate modest improvements in linear growth (HAZ) and among male children the observed increase was related to enrollment in the Brazilian conditional cash transfer program, Bolsa Família (P = 0.03). In terms of short‐term measures of nutritional status, we found a significant increase in ZTSF and a reduction in ZUMA in most age/sex groups. Among subadults, there was a negative relationship between ZUMA and access to electricity (P = 0.01) and positive relationship between ZUMA and the sale of the açaí fruit (P = 0.04). Significant changes in weight and BMI (P < 0.01) were found among adult females and both were negatively related to household cash income (P = 0.02 and P = 0.03, respectively). Despite significant changes in economic strategies and lifestyle, changes in nutritional status were modest which may be explained by increased food insecurity documented during this early stage of transition. Am J Phys Anthropol, 2011. © 2011 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.