The brighter side of climate change: How local oceanography amplified a lobster boom in the Gulf of Maine

Ocean warming can drive poleward shifts of commercially important species with potentially significant economic impacts. Nowhere are those impacts greater than in the Gulf of Maine where North America's most valuable marine species, the American lobster (Homarus americanus Milne Edwards), has thrived for decades. However, there are growing concerns that regional maritime economies will suffer as monitored shallow water young‐of‐year lobsters decline and landings shift to the northeast. We examine how the interplay of ocean warming, tidal mixing, and larval behavior results in a brighter side of climate change. Since the 1980s lobster stocks have increased fivefold. We suggest that this increase resulted from a complex interplay between lobster larvae settlement behavior, climate change, and local oceanographic conditions. Specifically, postlarval sounding behavior is confined to a thermal envelope above 12°C and below 20°C. Summer thermally stratified surface waters in southwestern regions have historically been well within the settlement thermal envelope. Although surface layers are warming fastest in this region, the steep depth‐wise temperature gradient caused thermally suitable areas for larval settlement to expand only modestly. This contrasts with the northeast where strong tidal mixing prevents thermal stratification and recent ocean warming has made an expansive area of seabed more favorable for larval settlement. Recent declines in lobster settlement densities observed at shallow monitoring sites correlate with the expanded area of thermally suitable habitat associated with warmer summers. This leads us to hypothesize that the expanded area of suitable habitat may help explain strong lobster population increases in this region over the last decade and offset potential future declines. It also suggests that the fate of fisheries in a changing climate requires understanding local interaction between life stage‐specific biological thresholds and finer scale oceanographic processes.     

From global to regional and back again: common climate stressors of marine ecosystems relevant for adaptation across five ocean warming hotspots

Ocean warming ‘hotspots’ are regions characterized by above‐average temperature increases over recent years, for which there are significant consequences for both living marine resources and the societies that depend on them. As such, they represent early warning systems for understanding the impacts of marine climate change, and test‐beds for developing adaptation options for coping with those impacts. Here, we examine five hotspots off the coasts of eastern Australia, South Africa, Madagascar, India and Brazil. These particular hotspots have underpinned a large international partnership that is working towards improving community adaptation by characterizing, assessing and projecting the likely future of coastal‐marine food resources through the provision and sharing of knowledge. To inform this effort, we employ a high‐resolution global ocean model forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and simulated to year 2099. In addition to the sea surface temperature, we analyse projected stratification, nutrient supply, primary production, anthropogenic CO₂‐driven ocean acidification, deoxygenation and ocean circulation. Our simulation finds that the temperature‐defined hotspots studied here will continue to experience warming but, with the exception of eastern Australia, may not remain the fastest warming ocean areas over the next century as the strongest warming is projected to occur in the subpolar and polar areas of the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, we find that recent rapid change in SST is not necessarily an indicator that these areas are also hotspots of the other climatic stressors examined. However, a consistent facet of the hotspots studied here is that they are all strongly influenced by ocean circulation, which has already shown changes in the recent past and is projected to undergo further strong change into the future. In addition to the fast warming, change in local ocean circulation represents a distinct feature of present and future climate change impacting marine ecosystems in these areas.     

Climate change and larval transport in the ocean: fractional effects from physical and physiological factors

Changes in larval import, export, and self‐seeding will affect the resilience of coral reef ecosystems. Climate change will alter the ocean currents that transport larvae and also increase sea surface temperatures (SST), hastening development, and shortening larval durations. Here, we use transport simulations to estimate future larval connectivity due to: (1) physical transport of larvae from altered circulation alone, and (2) the combined effects of altered currents plus physiological response to warming. Virtual larvae from islands throughout Micronesia were moved according to present‐day and future ocean circulation models. The Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) spanning 2004–2012 represented present‐day currents. For future currents, we altered HYCOM using analysis from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model, version 1‐Biogeochemistry, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 experiment. Based on the NCAR model, regional SST is estimated to rise 2.74 °C which corresponds to a ~17% decline in larval duration for some taxa. This reduction was the basis for a separate set of simulations. Results predict an increase in self‐seeding in 100 years such that 62–76% of islands experienced increased self‐seeding, there was an average domainwide increase of ~1–3% points in self‐seeding, and increases of up to 25% points for several individual islands. When changed currents alone were considered, approximately half (i.e., random) of all island pairs experienced decreased connectivity but when reduced PLD was added as an effect, ~65% of connections were weakened. Orientation of archipelagos relative to currents determined the directional bias in connectivity changes. There was no universal relationship between climate change and connectivity applicable to all taxa and settings. Islands that presently export large numbers of larvae but that also maintain or enhance this role into the future should be the focus of conservation measures that promote long‐term resilience of larval supply.     

Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming

Marine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well‐connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we develop a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration (PLD) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean‐warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLDs. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph‐theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance‐weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better‐connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation‐only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of dispersal connectivity. Our results support previous studies suggesting that, given potential reductions in PLD due to ocean warming, future marine reserve networks would require more and/or larger reserves in closer proximity to maintain larval connectivity.     

Effects of experimental warming on survival,phenology, and morphology of an aquatic insect (Odonata)

1. Organisms can respond to changing climatic conditions in multiple ways including changes in phenology, body size or morphology, and range shifts. Understanding how developmental temperatures affect insect life‐history timing and morphology is crucial because body size and morphology affect multiple aspects of life history, including dispersal ability, whereas phenology can shape population performance and community interactions. 2. It was experimentally assessed how developmental temperatures experienced by aquatic larvae affected survival, phenology, and adult morphology of dragonflies [Pachydiplax longipennis (Burmeister)]. Larvae were reared under three environmental temperatures: ambient, +2.5, and +5 °C, corresponding to temperature projections for our study area 50 and 100 years in the future, respectively. Experimental temperature treatments tracked naturally‐occurring variation. 3. Clear effects of temperature were found in the rearing environment on survival and phenology: dragonflies reared at the highest temperatures had the lowest survival rates and emerged from the larval stage approximately 3 weeks earlier than animals reared at ambient temperatures. There was no effect of rearing temperature on overall body size. Although neither the relative wing nor thorax size was affected by warming, a non‐significant trend towards an interaction between sex and warming in relative thorax size suggests that males may be more sensitive to warming than females, a pattern that should be investigated further. 4. Warming strongly affected survival in the larval stage and the phenology of adult emergence. Understanding how warming in the developmental environment affects later life‐history stages is critical to interpreting the consequences of warming for organismal performance.     

Going with the flow: the role of ocean circulation in global marine ecosystems under a changing climate

Ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced productivity are widely considered to be the major stressors to ocean ecosystems induced by emissions of CO₂. However, an overlooked stressor is the change in ocean circulation in response to climate change. Strong changes in the intensity and position of the western boundary currents have already been observed, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems are beginning to emerge. In this study, we address climatically induced changes in ocean circulation on a global scale but relevant to propagule dispersal for species inhabiting global shelf ecosystems, using a high‐resolution global ocean model run under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. The ¼ degree model resolution allows improved regional realism of the ocean circulation beyond that of available CMIP5‐class models. We use a Lagrangian approach forced by modelled ocean circulation to simulate the circulation pathways that disperse planktonic life stages. Based on trajectory backtracking, we identify present‐day coastal retention, dominant flow and dispersal range for coastal regions at the global scale. Projecting into the future, we identify areas of the strongest projected circulation change and present regional examples with the most significant modifications in their dominant pathways. Climatically induced changes in ocean circulation should be considered as an additional stressor of marine ecosystems in a similar way to ocean warming or acidification.     

Species traits and climate velocity explain geographic range shifts in an ocean‐warming hotspot

Species' ranges are shifting globally in response to climate warming, with substantial variability among taxa, even within regions. Relationships between range dynamics and intrinsic species traits may be particularly apparent in the ocean, where temperature more directly shapes species' distributions. Here, we test for a role of species traits and climate velocity in driving range extensions in the ocean‐warming hotspot of southeast Australia. Climate velocity explained some variation in range shifts, however, including species traits more than doubled the variation explained. Swimming ability, omnivory and latitudinal range size all had positive relationships with range extension rate, supporting hypotheses that increased dispersal capacity and ecological generalism promote extensions. We find independent support for the hypothesis that species with narrow latitudinal ranges are limited by factors other than climate. Our findings suggest that small‐ranging species are in double jeopardy, with limited ability to escape warming and greater intrinsic vulnerability to stochastic disturbances.     

Increasing ocean temperatures allow tropical fishes to survive overwinter in temperate waters

The southeast coast of Australia is a global hotspot for increasing ocean temperatures due to climate change. The temperate incursion of the East Australian Current (EAC) is increasing, affording increased connectivity with the Great Barrier Reef. The survival of tropically sourced juveniles over the winter is a significant stumbling block to poleward range shifts of marine organisms in this region. Here we examine the dependence of overwintering on winter severity and prewinter recruitment for eight species of juvenile coral reef fishes which are carried into temperate SE Australia (30–37 °S) by the EAC during the austral summer. The probability of persistence was most strongly influenced by average winter temperature and there was no effect of recruitment strength. Long‐term (138 years) data indicate that winter water temperatures throughout this region are increasing at a rate above the global average and predictions indicate a further warming of >2 °C by the end of the century. Rising ocean temperatures are resulting in a higher frequency of winter temperatures above survival thresholds. Current warming trajectories predict 100% of winters will be survivable by at least five of the study species as far south as Sydney (34 °S) by 2080. The implications for range expansions of these and other species of coral reef fish are discussed.     

Modelling marine community responses to climate‐driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem‐based management

As a consequence of global climate‐driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species – or range shifts – across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of individual species. The ecological effects of marine range shifts on ecosystem structure and functioning, as well as human coastal communities, can be large, yet remain difficult to anticipate and manage. Here, we use qualitative modelling of system feedback to understand the cumulative impacts of multiple species shifts in south‐eastern Australia, a global hotspot for ocean warming. We identify range‐shifting species that can induce trophic cascades and affect ecosystem dynamics and productivity, and evaluate the potential effectiveness of alternative management interventions to mitigate these impacts. Our results suggest that the negative ecological impacts of multiple simultaneous range shifts generally add up. Thus, implementing whole‐of‐ecosystem management strategies and regular monitoring of range‐shifting species of ecological concern are necessary to effectively intervene against undesirable consequences of marine range shifts at the regional scale. Our study illustrates how modelling system feedback with only limited qualitative information about ecosystem structure and range‐shifting species can predict ecological consequences of multiple co‐occurring range shifts, guide ecosystem‐based adaptation to climate change and help prioritise future research and monitoring.     

Individualistic species limitations of climate‐induced range expansions generated by meso‐scale dispersal barriers

Aim Evidence indicates that species are responding to climate change through distributional range shifts that track suitable climatic conditions. We aim to elucidate the role of meso‐scale dispersal barriers in climate‐tracking responses. Location South coast of England (the English Channel). Methods Historical distributional data of four intertidal invertebrate species were logistically regressed against sea surface temperature (SST) to determine a climate envelope. This envelope was used to estimate the expected climate‐tracking response since 1990 along the coast, which was compared with observed range expansions. A hydrodynamic modelling approach was used to identify dispersal barriers and explore disparities between expected and observed climate tracking. Results Range shifts detected by field survey over the past 20 years were less than those predicted by the changes that have occurred in SST. Hydrodynamic model simulations indicated that physical barriers produced by complex tidal currents have variably restricted dispersal of pelagic larvae amongst the four species. Main conclusions We provide the first evidence that meso‐scale hydrodynamic barriers have limited climate‐induced range shifts and demonstrate that life history traits affect the ability of species to overcome such barriers. This suggests that current forecasts may be flawed, both by overestimating range shifts and by underestimating climatic tolerances of species. This has implications for our understanding of climate change impacts on global biodiversity.     

Climate-driven range extension of a sea urchin: inferring future trends by analysis of recent population dynamics

Patterns of climate-forced range shift in the marine environment are informed by investigating the population dynamics of an ecologically important sea urchin ( Centrostephanus rodgersii – Diadematidae) across its newly extended range in Tasmania (southeastern Australia). A growth model of C. rodgersii is developed allowing estimation of a sea urchin age profile and, in combination with abundance data, we correlate the sea urchin population dynamic with respect to environmental signals across the range extension region. Growth patterns did not vary across the extension region; however, there was a strong pattern of decreasing sea urchin age with increasing distance from the historic range. The sequential poleward discovery of the sea urchin, a pattern of declining age and a general poleward reduction in abundance along the eastern Tasmanian coastline are consistent with a model of range extension driven by recent change in patterns of larval dispersal. We explore this hypothesis by correlating C. rodgersii population characteristics with respect to the East Australian Current (EAC), i.e. the chief vector for poleward larval dispersal, and reveal patterns of declining sea urchin age and abundance with increasing distance from this oceanic feature. Furthermore, C. rodgersii is generally limited to sites where average winter temperatures are warmer than the cold threshold for its larval development. Potential dispersal and physiological mechanisms defining the range extension appear to be strongly coupled to the EAC which has undergone recent poleward advance and resulted in coastal warming in eastern Tasmania. Predicted climate change conditions for this region will favour continued population expansion of C. rodgersii not only via atmospheric-forced ocean warming, but also via ongoing intensification of the EAC driving continued poleward supply of larvae and heat.     

Extensive local‐scale gene flow and long‐term population stability in the intertidal mollusc Katharina tunicata (Mollusca: Polyplacophora)

The dispersal capabilities of intertidal organisms may represent a key factor to their survival in the face of global warming, as species that cannot adapt to the various effects of climate change will have to migrate to track suitable habitat. Although species with pelagic larval phases might be expected to have a greater capacity for dispersal than those with benthic larvae, interspecies comparisons have shown that this is not always the case. Consequently, population genetic approaches are being increasingly used to gain insights into dispersal through studying patterns of gene flow. In the present study, we used nuclear single‐nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequencing to elucidate fine‐scale patterns of genetic variation between populations of the Black Katy Chiton, Katharina tunicata, separated by 15–150 km in south‐west Vancouver Island. Both the nuclear and mitochondrial data sets revealed no genetic differentiation between the populations studied, and an isolation‐with‐migration analysis indicated extensive local‐scale gene flow, suggesting an absence of barriers to dispersal. Population demographic analysis also revealed long‐term population stability through previous periods of climate change associated with the Pleistocene glaciations. Together, the findings of the present study suggest that this high potential for dispersal may allow K. tunicata to respond to current global warming by tracking suitable habitat, consistent with its long‐term demographic stability through previous changes in the Earth's climate. © 2012 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 106 , 589–597.     

Edging along a Warming Coast: A Range Extension for a Common Sandy Beach Crab

Determining the position of range edges is the first step in developing an understanding of the ecological and evolutionary dynamics in play as species’ ranges shift in response to climate change. Here, we study the leading (poleward) range edge of Ocypode cordimanus, a ghost crab that is common along the central to northern east coast of Australia. Our study establishes the poleward range edge of adults of this species to be at Merimbula (36.90°S, 149.93°E), 270 km (along the coast) south of the previous southernmost museum record. We also establish that dispersal of pelagic larvae results in recruitment to beaches 248 km (along the coast; 0.9° of latitude) beyond the adult range edge we have documented here. Although we cannot conclusively demonstrate that the leading range edge for this species has moved polewards in response to climate change, this range edge does fall within a “hotspot” of ocean warming, where surface isotherms are moving southwards along the coast at 20–50 km.decade^-1; coastal air temperatures in the region are also warming. If these patterns persist, future range extensions could be anticipated. On the basis of their ecology, allied with their occupancy of ocean beaches, which are home to taxa that are particularly amenable to climate-change studies, we propose that ghost crabs like O. cordimanus represent ideal model organisms with which to study ecological and evolutionary processes associated with climate change. The fact that “hotspots” of ocean warming on four other continents correspond with poleward range edges of ghost crab species suggests that results of hypothesis tests could be generalized, yielding excellent opportunities to rapidly progress knowledge in this field.     

Hot and salty: the temperature and salinity preferences of a temperate estuarine shrimp larva, Upogebia pusilla (Decapoda: Thalassinidea)

At a time when global climate changes are forcing life to adapt to a warming and salinity-changing environment, it is essential to understand how future changes in ocean chemistry will affect species. This study evaluates the combined effects of temperature and salinity on survival and development of Upogebia pusilla larvae. Combinations were made from three temperatures (18, 23, and 28°C) and three salinities (15, 25, and 35). Survival, larval duration and megalopa size were compared between treatments. U. pusilla larvae developed optimally in the highest salinity (35) and higher temperatures (23–28°C). Low salinities and temperatures did not support larval survival and development, with salinity being the main restricting factor for survival, while temperature affected mainly the duration of the larval stages. Larvae at higher temperatures (23–28°C) presented a higher development rate but no differences were found in megalopa size.     

Noncalcifying larvae in a changing ocean: warming,not acidification/hypercapnia,is the dominant stressor on development of the sea star Meridiastra calcar

Climate change driven ocean warming and acidification is potentially detrimental to the sensitive planktonic life stages of benthic marine invertebrates. Research has focused on the effects of acidification on calcifying larvae with a paucity of data on species with alternate developmental strategies and on the interactive effects of warming and acidification. To determine the impact of climate change on a conspicuous component of the intertidal fauna of southeast Australia, the development of the noncalcifying lecithotrophic larvae of the sea star Meridiastra calcar was investigated in the setting of predicted ocean warming (+2 to 4 ^°C) and acidification (?0.4 to 0.6 pH units) for 2100 and beyond in all combinations of stressors. Temperature and pH were monitored in the habitat of M. calcar to place experiments in context with current environmental conditions. There was no effect of temperature or pH on cleavage stage embryos but later development (gastrula‐larvae) was negatively effected by a +2 to 4 ^°C warming and there was a negative effect of ?0.6 pH units on embryos reaching the hatched gastrula stage. Mortality and abnormal development in larvae increased significantly even with +2 ^°C warming and larval growth was impaired at +4 ^°C. For the range of temperature and pH conditions tested, there were no interactive effects of stressors across all stages monitored. For M. calcar, warming not acidification was the dominant stressor. A regression model incorporating data from this study and projected increasing SST for the region suggests an increase in larval mortality to 70% for M. calcar by 2100 in the absence of acclimation and adaptation. The broad distribution of this species in eastern Australia encompassing subtropical to cold temperate thermal regimes provides the possibility that local M. calcar populations may be sustained in a warming world through poleward migration of thermotolerant propagules, facilitated by the strong southward flow of the East Australian Current.     

Climate change considerations are fundamental to management of deep‐sea resource extraction

Climate change manifestation in the ocean, through warming, oxygen loss, increasing acidification, and changing particulate organic carbon flux (one metric of altered food supply), is projected to affect most deep‐ocean ecosystems concomitantly with increasing direct human disturbance. Climate drivers will alter deep‐sea biodiversity and associated ecosystem services, and may interact with disturbance from resource extraction activities or even climate geoengineering. We suggest that to ensure the effective management of increasing use of the deep ocean (e.g., for bottom fishing, oil and gas extraction, and deep‐seabed mining), environmental management and developing regulations must consider climate change. Strategic planning, impact assessment and monitoring, spatial management, application of the precautionary approach, and full‐cost accounting of extraction activities should embrace climate consciousness. Coupled climate and biological modeling approaches applied in the water and on the seafloor can help accomplish this goal. For example, Earth‐System Model projections of climate‐change parameters at the seafloor reveal heterogeneity in projected climate hazard and time of emergence (beyond natural variability) in regions targeted for deep‐seabed mining. Models that combine climate‐induced changes in ocean circulation with particle tracking predict altered transport of early life stages (larvae) under climate change. Habitat suitability models can help assess the consequences of altered larval dispersal, predict climate refugia, and identify vulnerable regions for multiple species under climate change. Engaging the deep observing community can support the necessary data provisioning to mainstream climate into the development of environmental management plans. To illustrate this approach, we focus on deep‐seabed mining and the International Seabed Authority, whose mandates include regulation of all mineral‐related activities in international waters and protecting the marine environment from the harmful effects of mining. However, achieving deep‐ocean sustainability under the UN Sustainable Development Goals will require integration of climate consideration across all policy sectors.     

Immigrants and refugees: the importance of dispersal in mediating biotic attrition under climate change

Montane tropical rainforests are critically important areas for global bird diversity, but are projected to be highly vulnerable to contemporary climate change. Upslope shifts of lowland species may partially offset declines in upland species but also result in a process of lowland biotic attrition. This latter process is contingent on the absence of species adapted to novel warm climates, and isolation from pools of potential colonizers. In the Australian Wet Tropics, species distribution modelling has forecast critical declines in suitable environmental area for upland endemic birds, raising the question of the future role of both natural and assisted dispersal in species survival, but information is lacking for important neighbouring rainforest regions. Here we use expanded geographic coverage of data to model the realized distributions of 120 bird species found in north‐eastern Australian rainforest, including species from potential source locations in the north and recipient locations in the south. We reaffirm previous conclusions as to the high vulnerability of this fauna to global warming, and extend the list of species whose suitable environmental area is projected to decrease. However, we find that expansion of suitable area for some species currently restricted to northern rainforests has the potential to offset biotic attrition in lowland forest of the Australian Wet Tropics. By examining contrasting dispersal scenarios, we show that responses to climate change in this region may critically depend on dispersal limitation, as climate change shifts the suitable environmental envelopes of many species south into currently unsuitable habitats. For lowland and northern species, future change in vegetation connectivity across contemporary habitat barriers is likely to be an important mediator of climate change impacts. In contrast, upland species are projected to become increasingly isolated and restricted. Their survival is likely to be more dependent on the viability of assisted migration, and the emergence and persistence of suitable environments at recipient locations.     

Complex effect of projected sea temperature and wind change on flatfish dispersal

Climate change not only alters ocean physics and chemistry but also affects the biota. Larval dispersal patterns from spawning to nursery grounds and larval survival are driven by hydrodynamic processes and shaped by (a)biotic environmental factors. Therefore, it is important to understand the impacts of increased temperature rise and changes in wind speed and direction on larval drift and survival. We apply a particle‐tracking model coupled to a 3D‐hydrodynamic model of the English Channel and the North Sea to study the dispersal dynamics of the exploited flatfish (common) sole (Solea solea). We first assess model robustness and interannual variability in larval transport over the period 1995–2011. Then, using a subset of representative years (2003–2011), we investigate the impact of climate change on larval dispersal, connectivity patterns and recruitment at the nursery grounds. The impacts of five scenarios inspired by the 2040 projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are discussed and compared with interannual variability. The results suggest that 33% of the year‐to‐year recruitment variability is explained at a regional scale and that a 9‐year period is sufficient to capture interannual variability in dispersal dynamics. In the scenario involving a temperature increase, early spawning and a wind change, the model predicts that (i) dispersal distance (+70%) and pelagic larval duration (+22%) will increase in response to the reduced temperature (?9%) experienced by early hatched larvae, (ii) larval recruitment at the nursery grounds will increase in some areas (36%) and decrease in others (?58%) and (iii) connectivity will show contrasting changes between areas. At the regional scale, our model predicts considerable changes in larval recruitment (+9%) and connectivity (retention ?4% and seeding +37%) due to global change. All of these factors affect the distribution and productivity of sole and therefore the functioning of the demersal ecosystem and fisheries management.     

Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe

Aim We explore the relationship between current European distributions of amphibian and reptile species and observed climate, and project species potential distributions into the future. Potential impacts of climate warming are assessed by quantifying the magnitude and direction of modelled distributional shifts for every species. In particular we ask, first, what proportion of amphibian and reptile species are projected to lose and gain suitable climate space in the future? Secondly, do species projections vary according to taxonomic, spatial or environmental properties? And thirdly, what climate factors might be driving projections of loss or gain in suitable environments for species? Location Europe. Methods Distributions of species are modelled with four species–climate envelope techniques (artificial neural networks, generalized linear models, generalized additive models, and classification tree analyses) and distributions are projected into the future using five climate‐change scenarios for 2050. Future projections are made considering two extreme assumptions: species have unlimited dispersal ability and species have no dispersal ability. A novel hybrid approach for combining ensembles of forecasts is then used to group linearly covarying projections into clusters with reduced inter‐model variability. Results We show that a great proportion of amphibian and reptile species are projected to expand distributions if dispersal is unlimited. This is because warming in the cooler northern ranges of species creates new opportunities for colonization. If species are unable to disperse, then most species are projected to lose range. Loss of suitable climate space for species is projected to occur mainly in the south‐west of Europe, including the Iberian Peninsula, whilst species in the south‐east are projected to gain suitable climate. This is because dry conditions in the south‐west are projected to increase, approaching the levels found in North Africa, where few amphibian species are able to persist. Main conclusions The impact of increasing temperatures on amphibian and reptile species may be less deleterious than previously postulated; indeed, climate cooling would be more deleterious for the persistence of amphibian and reptile species than warming. The ability of species to cope with climate warming may, however, be offset by projected decreases in the availability of water. This should be particularly true for amphibians. Limited dispersal ability may further increase the vulnerability of amphibians and reptiles to changes in climate.     

The thermal tolerance of crown-of-thorns (Acanthaster planci) embryos and bipinnaria larvae: implications for spatial and temporal variation in adult populations

To understand the role of sea temperature on the population biology of the crown-of-thorns sea star Acanthaster planci, the thermal window for embryonic and larval development was investigated. In two experiments, the response of embryos and larvae across 12 temperatures from 19.4 to 36.5 °C was quantified as the percentage of individuals reaching cleavage stage embryos, blastula, gastrula, early-bipinnaria, late-bipinnaria larvae or abnormal. Measurements were made at 7 times up to 72 h post-fertilisation, with the morphometrics of larvae measured in the 72-h sample. Acanthaster planci developed at temperatures between 19.4 and 33.2 °C, with a thermal window for development to the late-bipinnaria stage between 25.6 and 31.6 °C. Development rate, normal development and larval size were optimal at 28.7 °C, with development rates remaining relatively constant up to 31.6 °C. Rates of abnormality increased steadily (early embryonic stages) above 28.7 °C and was 100 % at temperatures approaching 33 °C. These experiments provide a more detailed insight into the response of A. planci developmental stages to temperature. The present day distribution of the species in eastern Australia overlap with the optimal thermal window for development to the late-bipinnaria stage (≈25–32 °C), implying a role of temperature in controlling population distributions and abundances. Despite this, short- or long-term temperature increases may not be a major modulator of the crown-of-thorns recruitment success, population dynamics and distribution in the future as no significant change in development rates, larval survival and growth occurred within this thermal window. Therefore, moderate (1–2 °C) increases in sea temperatures caused by El Niño or near-future ocean warming may not drive an increase in developmental and settlement success. Indeed, without any acclimation to warmer temperatures expected under near-future warming (+2 to 4 °C), climate change could ultimately reduce larval survival due to elevated mortality above the optimal development temperature.