Earlier snow melt and reduced summer precipitation alter floral traits important to pollination

Climate change can cause changes in expression of organismal traits that influence fitness. In flowering plants, floral traits can respond to drought, and that phenotypic plasticity has the potential to affect pollination and plant reproductive success. Global climate change is leading to earlier snow melt in snow-dominated ecosystems as well as affecting precipitation during the growing season, but the effects of snow melt timing on floral morphology and rewards remain unknown. We conducted crossed manipulations of spring snow melt timing (early vs. control) and summer monsoon precipitation (addition, control, and reduction) that mimicked recent natural variation, and examined plastic responses in floral traits of Ipomopsis aggregata over 3 years in the Rocky Mountains. We tested whether increased summer precipitation compensated for earlier snow melt, and if plasticity was associated with changes in soil moisture and/or leaf gas exchange. Lower summer precipitation decreased corolla length, style length, corolla width, sepal width, and nectar production, and increased nectar concentration. Earlier snow melt (taking into account natural and experimental variation) had the same effects on those traits and decreased inflorescence height. The effect of reduced summer precipitation was stronger in earlier snow melt years for corolla length and sepal width. Trait reductions were explained by drier soil during the flowering period, but this effect was only partially explained by how drier soils affected plant water stress, as measured by leaf gas exchange. We predicted the effects of plastic trait changes on pollinator visitation rates, pollination success, and seed production using prior studies on I. aggregata. The largest predicted effect of drier soil on relative fitness components via plasticity was a decrease in male fitness caused by reduced pollinator rewards (nectar production). Early snow melt and reduced precipitation are strong drivers of phenotypic plasticity, and both should be considered when predicting effects of climate change on plant traits in snow-dominated ecosystems.     

Climate change shifts natural selection and the adaptive potential of the perennial forb Boechera stricta in the Rocky Mountains

Heritable genetic variation is necessary for populations to evolve in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, antagonistic genetic correlations among traits may constrain the rate of adaptation, even if substantial genetic variation exists. We examine potential genetic responses to selection by comparing multivariate genetic variance–covariances of traits and fitness (multivariate Robertson–Price identities) across different environments in a reciprocal transplant experiment of the forb Boechera stricta in the Rocky Mountains. By transplanting populations into four common gardens arrayed along an elevational gradient, and exposing populations to control and snow removal treatments, we simulated future and current climates and snowmelt regimes. Genetic variation in flowering and germination phenology declined in plants moved downslope to warmer, drier sites, suggesting that these traits may have a limited ability to evolve under future climates. Simulated climate change via snow removal altered the strength of selection on flowering traits, but we found little evidence that genetic correlations among traits are likely to affect the rate of adaptation to climate change. Overall, our results suggest that climate change may alter the evolutionary potential of B. stricta, but reduced expression of genetic variation may be a larger impediment to adaptation than constraints imposed by antagonistic genetic correlations.     

Plant population differentiation and climate change: responses of grassland species along an elevational gradient

Mountain ecosystems are particularly susceptible to climate change. Characterizing intraspecific variation of alpine plants along elevational gradients is crucial for estimating their vulnerability to predicted changes. Environmental conditions vary with elevation, which might influence plastic responses and affect selection pressures that lead to local adaptation. Thus, local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity among low and high elevation plant populations in response to climate, soil and other factors associated with elevational gradients might underlie different responses of these populations to climate warming. Using a transplant experiment along an elevational gradient, we investigated reproductive phenology, growth and reproduction of the nutrient‐poor grassland species Ranunculus bulbosus, Trifolium montanum and Briza media. Seeds were collected from low and high elevation source populations across the Swiss Alps and grown in nine common gardens at three different elevations with two different soil depths. Despite genetic differentiation in some traits, the results revealed no indication of local adaptation to the elevation of population origin. Reproductive phenology was advanced at lower elevation in low and high elevation populations of all three species. Growth and reproduction of T. montanum and B. media were hardly affected by garden elevation and soil depth. In R. bulbosus, however, growth decreased and reproductive investment increased at higher elevation. Furthermore, soil depth influenced growth and reproduction of low elevation R. bulbosus populations. We found no evidence for local adaptation to elevation of origin and hardly any differences in the responses of low and high elevation populations. However, the consistent advanced reproductive phenology observed in all three species shows that they have the potential to plastically respond to environmental variation. We conclude that populations might not be forced to migrate to higher elevations as a consequence of climate warming, as plasticity will buffer the detrimental effects of climate change in the three investigated nutrient‐poor grassland species.     

Climate change disrupts local adaptation and favours upslope migration

Contemporary climate change is proceeding at an unprecedented rate. The question remains whether populations adapted to historical conditions can persist under rapid environmental change. We tested whether climate change will disrupt local adaptation and reduce population growth rates using the perennial plant Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae). In a large‐scale field experiment conducted over five years, we exposed > 106 000 transplants to historical, current, or future climates and quantified fitness components. Low‐elevation populations outperformed local populations under simulated climate change (snow removal) across all five experimental gardens. Local maladaptation also emerged in control treatments, but it was less pronounced than under snow removal. We recovered local adaptation under snow addition treatments, which reflect historical conditions. Our results revealed that low elevation populations risk rapid decline, whereas upslope migration could enable population persistence and expansion at higher elevation locales. Local adaptation to historical conditions could increase vulnerability to climate change, even for geographically widespread species.     

Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest

Climate niche models project that subalpine forest ranges will extend upslope with climate warming. These projections assume that the climate suitable for adult trees will be adequate for forest regeneration, ignoring climate requirements for seedling recruitment, a potential demographic bottleneck. Moreover, local genetic adaptation is expected to facilitate range expansion, with tree populations at the upper forest edge providing the seed best adapted to the alpine. Here, we test these expectations using a novel combination of common gardens, seeded with two widely distributed subalpine conifers, and climate manipulations replicated at three elevations. Infrared heaters raised temperatures in heated plots, but raised temperatures more in the forest than at or above treeline because strong winds at high elevation reduced heating efficiency. Watering increased season‐average soil moisture similarly across sites. Contrary to expectations, warming reduced Engelmann spruce recruitment at and above treeline, as well as in the forest. Warming reduced limber pine first‐year recruitment in the forest, but had no net effect on fourth‐year recruitment at any site. Watering during the snow‐free season alleviated some negative effects of warming, indicating that warming exacerbated water limitations. Contrary to expectations of local adaptation, low‐elevation seeds of both species initially recruited more strongly than high‐elevation seeds across the elevation gradient, although the low‐provenance advantage diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. High‐ and low‐elevation provenances responded similarly to warming across sites for Engelmann spruce, but differently for limber pine. In the context of increasing tree mortality, lower recruitment at all elevations with warming, combined with lower quality, high‐provenance seed being most available for colonizing the alpine, portends range contraction for Engelmann spruce. The lower sensitivity of limber pine to warming indicates a potential for this species to become more important in subalpine forest communities in the coming centuries.     

Will phenotypic plasticity affecting flowering phenology keep pace with climate change?

Rising temperatures have begun to shift flowering time, but it is unclear whether phenotypic plasticity can accommodate projected temperature change for this century. Evaluating clines in phenological traits and the extent and variation in plasticity can provide key information on assessing risk of maladaptation and developing strategies to mitigate climate change. In this study, flower phenology was examined in 52 populations of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) growing in three common gardens. Flowering date (anthesis) varied 91 days from late July to late November among gardens. Mixed‐effects modeling explained 79% of variation in flowering date, of which 46% could be assigned to plasticity and genetic variation in plasticity and 33% to genetics (conditional R² = 0.79, marginal R² = 0.33). Two environmental variables that explained the genetic variation were photoperiod and the onset of spring, the Julian date of accumulating degree‐days >5 °C reaching 100. The genetic variation was mapped for contemporary and future climates (decades 2060 and 2090), showing flower date change varies considerably across the landscape. Plasticity was estimated to accommodate, on average, a ±13‐day change in flowering date. However, the examination of genetic variation in plasticity suggests that the magnitude of plasticity could be affected by variation in the sensitivity to photoperiod and temperature. In a warmer common garden, lower‐latitude populations have greater plasticity (+16 days) compared to higher‐latitude populations (+10 days). Mapped climatypes of flowering date for contemporary and future climates illustrate the wide breadth of plasticity and large geographic overlap. Our research highlights the importance of integrating information on genetic variation, phenotypic plasticity and climatic niche modeling to evaluate plant responses and elucidate vulnerabilities to climate change.     

Elevational adaptation and plasticity in seedling phenology of temperate deciduous tree species

Phenological events, such as the initiation and the end of seasonal growth, are thought to be under strong evolutionary control because of their influence on tree fitness. Although numerous studies highlighted genetic differentiation in phenology among populations from contrasting climates, it remains unclear whether local adaptation could restrict phenological plasticity in response to current warming. Seedling populations of seven deciduous tree species from high and low elevations in the Swiss Alps were investigated in eight common gardens located along two elevational gradients from 400 to 1,700 m. We addressed the following questions: are there genetic differentiations in phenology between populations from low and high elevations, and are populations from the upper elevational limit of a species’ distribution able to respond to increasing temperature to the same extent as low-elevation populations? Genetic variation of leaf unfolding date between seedlings from low and high populations was detected in six out of seven tree species. Except for beech, populations from high elevations tended to flush later than populations from low elevations, emphasizing that phenology is likely to be under evolutionary pressure. Furthermore, seedlings from high elevation exhibited lower phenological plasticity to temperature than low-elevation provenances. This difference in phenological plasticity may reflect the opposing selective forces involved (i.e. a trade-off between maximizing growing season length and avoiding frost damages). Nevertheless, environmental effects were much stronger than genetic effects, suggesting a high phenological plasticity to enable tree populations to track ongoing climate change, which includes the risk of tracking unusually warm springs followed by frost.     

Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment,slowing the pace of population range shifts

Understanding how climate warming will affect the demographic rates of different ecotypes is critical to predicting shifts in species distributions. Here, we present results from a common garden, climate change experiment in which we measured seedling recruitment of lodgepole pine, a widespread North American conifer that is also planted globally. Seeds from a low‐elevation provenance had more than three‐fold greater recruitment to their third year than seeds from a high‐elevation provenance across sites within and above its native elevation range and across climate manipulations. Heating halved recruitment to the third year of both low‐ and high‐elevation seed sources across the elevation gradient, while watering more than doubled recruitment, alleviating some of the negative effects of heating. Demographic models based on recruitment data from the climate manipulations and long‐term observations of adult populations revealed that heating could effectively halt modeled upslope range expansion except when combined with watering. Simulating fire and rapid postfire forest recovery at lower elevations accelerated lodgepole pine expansion into the alpine, but did not alter final abundance rankings among climate scenarios. Regardless of climate scenario, greater recruitment of low‐elevation seeds compensated for longer dispersal distances to treeline, assuming colonization was allowed to proceed over multiple centuries. Our results show that ecotypes from lower elevations within a species’ range could enhance recruitment and facilitate upslope range shifts with climate change.     

Flowering phenology and reproductive fitness along a mountain slope: maladaptive responses to transplantation to a warmer climate in Campanula thyrsoides

In many biomes, global warming has resulted in advanced and longer growing seasons, which has often led to earlier flowering in plant taxa. Elevational gradients are ideal to study the effects of global warming as they allow transplantation of plants from their original cooler higher elevations down to elevations with a prospective climate. We transplanted plants from ten populations of the European alpine monocarpic herb species Campanula thyrsoides L. to three sites along a steep mountain slope (600, 1,235 and 1,850 m above sea level) in the Swiss Alps and asked whether reproductive phenology adjusts plastically to elevation and if these responses were adaptive, i.e. increased the fitness of plants. We further assessed current genetic differentiation in phenotypic traits and whether any such origin effects were due to adaptation to climatic conditions of origin. Our results showed that transplantation to lower elevations caused strong shifts in phenology, with plants starting growth and flowering earlier than plants placed at higher elevations. However, compared to flower production at high elevation, number of flowers per plant decreased 21 % at mid- and 61 % at low elevation. The shift in phenology thus came with a high cost in fitness, and we suggest that phenology is maladaptive when C. thyrsoides faces temperature conditions deviating from its natural amplitude. We conclude that the frequently reported phenological shift in plant species as a response to global warming may include heavy fitness costs that may hamper species survival.     

No effect of elevation and fragmentation on genetic diversity and structure in Polylepis australis trees from central Argentina

Phenological differences in flowering arising along elevational gradients may be caused by either local adaptation or phenotypic plasticity. Local adaptation can lead to reproductive isolation of populations at different elevational zones and thus produce elevational genetic structuring, while phenotypic plasticity does not produce elevational genetic structuring. In this study, we examined the effects of elevation and fragmentation on genetic diversity and structure of Polylepis australis populations, where individuals exhibit phenological differences in flowering along an elevational gradient. We assessed the polymorphism of amplified fragment length polymorphism markers in adults and saplings from one conserved and one fragmented forest covering elevations from 1600 to 2600 m asl. Over 98% of variation was found within populations, and we found very low and similar genetic differentiation along elevational gradients for adults and saplings in both continuous and fragmented forests. In addition, there was no significant relationship between genetic diversity and elevation. Results indicated that phenological differences along elevational gradients are more likely caused by phenotypic plasticity than local adaptation, and fragmentation does not appear to have affected genetic diversity and differentiation in the studied populations. Results therefore imply that if necessary, seeds for reforestation purposes may be collected from different elevations to the seeding or planting sites.     

Phenological change in a spring ephemeral: implications for pollination and plant reproduction

Climate change has had numerous ecological effects, including species range shifts and altered phenology. Altering flowering phenology often affects plant reproduction, but the mechanisms behind these changes are not well‐understood. To investigate why altering flowering phenology affects plant reproduction, we manipulated flowering phenology of the spring herb Claytonia lanceolata (Portulacaceae) using two methods: in 2011–2013 by altering snow pack (snow‐removal vs. control treatments), and in 2013 by inducing flowering in a greenhouse before placing plants in experimental outdoor arrays (early, control, and late treatments). We measured flowering phenology, pollinator visitation, plant reproduction (fruit and seed set), and pollen limitation. Flowering occurred approx. 10 days earlier in snow‐removal than control plots during all years of snow manipulation. Pollinator visitation patterns and strength of pollen limitation varied with snow treatments, and among years. Plants in the snow removal treatment were more likely to experience frost damage, and frost‐damaged plants suffered low reproduction despite lack of pollen limitation. Plants in the snow removal treatment that escaped frost damage had higher pollinator visitation rates and reproduction than controls. The results of the array experiment supported the results of the snow manipulations. Plants in the early and late treatments suffered very low reproduction due either to severe frost damage (early treatment) or low pollinator visitation (late treatment) relative to control plants. Thus, plants face tradeoffs with advanced flowering time. While early‐flowering plants can reap the benefits of enhanced pollination services, they do so at the cost of increased susceptibility to frost damage that can overwhelm any benefit of flowering early. In contrast, delayed flowering results in dramatic reductions in plant reproduction through reduced pollination. Our results suggest that climate change may constrain the success of early‐flowering plants not through plant‐pollinator mismatch but through the direct impacts of extreme environmental conditions.     

Experimental migration upward in elevation is associated with strong selection on life history traits

One of the strongest biological impacts of climate change has been the movement of species poleward and upward in elevation. Yet, what is not clear is the extent to which the spatial distribution of locally adapted lineages and ecologically important traits may also shift with continued climate change. Here, we take advantage of a transplant experiment mimicking up‐slope seed dispersal for a suite of ecologically diverse populations of yellow monkeyflower (Mimulus guttatus sensu lato) into a high‐elevation common garden during an extreme drought period in the Sierra Nevada mountains, California, USA. We use a demographic approach to quantify fitness and test for selection on life history traits in local versus lower‐elevation populations and in normal versus drought years to test the potential for up‐slope migration and phenotypic selection to alter the distribution of key life history traits in montane environments. We find that lower‐elevation populations tend to outperform local populations, confirming the potential for up‐slope migration. Although selection generally favored some local montane traits, including larger flowers and larger stem size at flowering, drought conditions tended to select for earlier flowering typical of lower‐elevation genotypes. Taken together, this suggests that monkeyflower lineages moving upward in elevation could experience selection for novel trait combinations, particularly under warmer and drier conditions that are predicted to occur with continued climate change.     

Climate drives among‐year variation in natural selection on flowering time

To predict long‐term responses to climate change, we need to understand how changes in temperature and precipitation elicit both immediate phenotypic responses and changes in natural selection. We used 22 years of data for the perennial herb Lathyrus vernus to examine how climate influences flowering phenology and phenotypic selection on phenology. Plants flowered earlier in springs with higher temperatures and higher precipitation. Early flowering was associated with a higher fitness in nearly all years, but selection for early flowering was significantly stronger in springs with higher temperatures and lower precipitation. Climate influenced selection through trait distributions, mean fitness and trait?fitness relationships, the latter accounting for most of the among‐year variation in selection. Our results show that climate both induces phenotypic responses and alters natural selection, and that the change in the optimal phenotype might be either weaker, as for spring temperature, or stronger, as for precipitation, than the optimal response.     

Summer warming and increased winter snow cover affect Sphagnum fuscum growth, structure and production in a sub-arctic bog

Sphagnum mosses form a major component of northern peatlands, which are expected to experience substantially higher increases in temperature and winter precipitation than the global average. Sphagnum may play an important role in the responses of the global carbon cycle to climate change. We investigated the responses of summer length growth, carpet structure and production in Sphagnum fuscum to experimentally induced changes in climate in a sub‐arctic bog. Thereto, we used open‐top chambers (OTCs) to create six climate scenarios including changes in summer temperatures, and changes in winter snow cover and spring temperatures. In winter, the OTCs doubled the snow thickness, resulting in 0.5–2.8°C higher average air temperatures. Spring air temperatures in OTCs increased by 1.0°C. Summer warming had a maximum effect of 0.9°C, while vapor pressure deficit was not affected. The climate manipulations had strong effects on S. fuscum. Summer warming enhanced the length increment by 42–62%, whereas bulk density decreased. This resulted in a trend (P<0.10) of enhanced biomass production. Winter snow addition enhanced dry matter production by 33%, despite the fact that the length growth and bulk density did not change significantly. The addition of spring warming to snow addition alone did not significantly enhance this effect, but we may have missed part of the early spring growth. There were no interactions between the manipulations in summer and those in winter/spring, indicating that the effects were additive. Summer warming may in the long term negatively affect productivity through the adverse effects of changes in Sphagnum structure on moisture holding and transporting capacity. Moreover, the strong length growth enhancement may affect interactions with other mosses and vascular plants. Because winter snow addition enhanced the production of S. fuscum without affecting its structure, it may increase the carbon balance of northern peatlands.     

Experimental icing affects growth,mortality, and flowering in a high Arctic dwarf shrub

Effects of climate change are predicted to be greatest at high latitudes, with more pronounced warming in winter than summer. Extreme mid‐winter warm spells and heavy rain‐on‐snow events are already increasing in frequency in the Arctic, with implications for snow‐pack and ground‐ice formation. These may in turn affect key components of Arctic ecosystems. However, the fitness consequences of extreme winter weather events for tundra plants are not well understood, especially in the high Arctic. We simulated an extreme mid‐winter rain‐on‐snow event at a field site in high Arctic Svalbard (78°N) by experimentally encasing tundra vegetation in ice. After the subsequent growing season, we measured the effects of icing on growth and fitness indices in the common tundra plant, Arctic bell‐heather (Cassiope tetragona). The suitability of this species for retrospective growth analysis enabled us to compare shoot growth in pre and postmanipulation years in icing treatment and control plants, as well as shoot survival and flowering. Plants from icing treatment plots had higher shoot mortality and lower flowering success than controls. At the individual sample level, heavily flowering plants invested less in shoot growth than nonflowering plants, while shoot growth was positively related to the degree of shoot mortality. Therefore, contrary to expectation, undamaged shoots showed enhanced growth in ice treatment plants. This suggests that following damage, aboveground resources were allocated to the few remaining undamaged meristems. The enhanced shoot growth measured in our icing treatment plants has implications for climate studies based on retrospective analyses of Cassiope. As shoot growth in this species responds positively to summer warming, it also highlights a potentially complex interaction between summer and winter conditions. By documenting strong effects of icing on growth and reproduction of a widespread tundra plant, our study contributes to an understanding of Arctic plant responses to projected changes in winter climatic conditions.     

Climate warming: a loss of variation in populations can accompany reproductive shifts

The most documented response of organisms to climate warming is a change in the average timing of seasonal activities (phenology). Although we know that these average changes can differ among species and populations, we do not know whether climate warming impacts within‐population variation in phenology. Using data from five study sites collected during a 13‐year survey, we found that the increase in spring temperatures is associated with a reproductive advance of 10 days in natural populations of common lizards (Zootoca vivipara). Interestingly, we show a correlated loss of variation in reproductive dates within populations. As illustrated by a model, this shortening of the reproductive period can have significant negative effects on population dynamics. Consequently, we encourage tests in other species to assess the generality of decreased variation in phenological responses to climate change.     

Effects of experimentally imposed climate scenarios on flowering phenology and flower production of subarctic bog species

Climate scenarios for high‐latitude areas predict not only increased summer temperatures, but also larger variation in snowfall and winter temperatures. By using open‐top chambers, we experimentally manipulated both summer temperatures and winter and spring snow accumulations and temperatures independently in a blanket bog in subarctic Sweden, yielding six climate scenarios. We studied the effects of these scenarios on flowering phenology and flower production of Andromeda polifolia (woody evergreen) and Rubus chamaemorus (perennial herb) during 2 years. The second year of our study (2002) was characterized by unusually high spring and early summer temperatures. Our winter manipulations led to consistent increases in winter snow cover. As a result, average and minimum air and soil temperatures in the high snow cover treatments were higher than in the winter ambient treatments, whereas temperature fluctuations were smaller. Spring warming resulted in higher average, minimum, and maximum soil temperatures. Summer warming led to higher air and soil temperatures in mid‐summer (June–July), but not in late summer (August–September). The unusually high temperatures in 2002 advanced the median flowering date by 2 weeks for both species in all treatments. Superimposed on this effect, we found that for both Andromeda and Rubus, all our climate treatments (except summer warming for Rubus) advanced flowering by 1–4 days. The total flower production of both species showed a more or less similar response: flower production in the warm year 2002 exceeded that in 2001 by far. However, in both species flower production was only stimulated by the spring‐warming treatments. Our results show that the reproductive ecology of both species is very responsive to climate change but this response is very dependent on specific climate events, especially those that occur in winter and spring. This suggests that high‐latitude climate change experiments should focus more on winter and spring events than has been the case so far.     

Spatio‐temporal variation in fitness responses to contrasting environments in Arabidopsis thaliana

The evolutionary response of organisms to global climate change is expected to be strongly conditioned by preexisting standing genetic variation. In addition, natural selection imposed by global climate change on fitness‐related traits can be heterogeneous over time. We estimated selection of life‐history traits of an entire genetic lineage of the plant Arabidopsis thaliana occurring in north‐western Iberian Peninsula that were transplanted over multiple years into two environmentally contrasting field sites in southern Spain, as southern environments are expected to move progressively northwards with climate change in the Iberian Peninsula. The results indicated that natural selection on flowering time prevailed over that on recruitment. Selection favored early flowering in six of eight experiments and late flowering in the other two. Such heterogeneity of selection for flowering time might be a powerful mechanism for maintaining genetic diversity in the long run. We also found that north‐western A. thaliana accessions from warmer environments exhibited higher fitness and higher phenotypic plasticity for flowering time in southern experimental facilities. Overall, our transplant experiments suggested that north‐western Iberian A. thaliana has the means to cope with increasingly warmer environments in the region as predicted by trends in global climate change models.     

Effects of climate and snow depth on Bromus tectorum population dynamics at high elevation

Invasive plants are thought to be especially capable of range shifts or expansion in response to climate change due to high dispersal and colonization abilities. Although highly invasive throughout the Intermountain West, the presence and impact of the grass Bromus tectorum has been limited at higher elevations in the eastern Sierra Nevada, potentially due to extreme wintertime conditions. However, climate models project an upward elevational shift of climate regimes in the Sierra Nevada that could favor B. tectorum expansion. This research specifically examined the effects of experimental snow depth manipulations and interannual climate variability over 5 years on B. tectorum populations at high elevation (2,175 m). Experimentally-increased snow depth had an effect on phenology and biomass, but no effect on individual fecundity. Instead an experimentally-increased snowpack inhibited population growth in 1 year by reducing seedling emergence and early survival. A similar negative effect of increased snow was observed 2 years later. However, a strong negative effect on B. tectorum was also associated with a naturally low-snow winter, when seedling emergence was reduced by 86%. Across 5 years, winters with greater snow cover and a slower accumulation of degree-days coincided with higher B. tectorum seedling density and population growth. Thus, we observed negative effects associated with both experimentally-increased and naturally-decreased snowpacks. It is likely that the effect of snow at high elevation is nonlinear and differs from lower elevations where wintertime germination can be favorable. Additionally, we observed a doubling of population size in 1 year, which is alarming at this elevation.     

Snow cover and extreme winter warming events control flower abundance of some,but not all species in high arctic Svalbard

The High Arctic winter is expected to be altered through ongoing and future climate change. Winter precipitation and snow depth are projected to increase and melt out dates change accordingly. Also, snow cover and depth will play an important role in protecting plant canopy from increasingly more frequent extreme winter warming events. Flower production of many Arctic plants is dependent on melt out timing, since season length determines resource availability for flower preformation. We erected snow fences to increase snow depth and shorten growing season, and counted flowers of six species over 5 years, during which we experienced two extreme winter warming events. Most species were resistant to snow cover increase, but two species reduced flower abundance due to shortened growing seasons. Cassiope tetragona responded strongly with fewer flowers in deep snow regimes during years without extreme events, while Stellaria crassipes responded partly. Snow pack thickness determined whether winter warming events had an effect on flower abundance of some species. Warming events clearly reduced flower abundance in shallow but not in deep snow regimes of Cassiope tetragona, but only marginally for Dryas octopetala. However, the affected species were resilient and individuals did not experience any long term effects. In the case of short or cold summers, a subset of species suffered reduced reproductive success, which may affect future plant composition through possible cascading competition effects. Extreme winter warming events were shown to expose the canopy to cold winter air. The following summer most of the overwintering flower buds could not produce flowers. Thus reproductive success is reduced if this occurs in subsequent years. We conclude that snow depth influences flower abundance by altering season length and by protecting or exposing flower buds to cold winter air, but most species studied are resistant to changes.