A comparison of the global warming effects of wood fuels and fossil fuels taking albedo into account

Traditionally, wood fuels, like other bioenergy sources, have been considered carbon neutral because the amount of CO₂ released can be offset by CO₂ sequestration due to the regrowth of the biomass. Thus, until recently, most studies assigned a global warming potential (GWP) of zero to CO₂ generated by the combustion of biomass (biogenic CO₂). Moreover, emissions of biogenic CO₂ are usually not included in carbon tax and emissions trading schemes. However, there is now increasing awareness of the inadequacy of this way of treating bioenergy, especially bioenergy from boreal forests. Holtsmark (2014) recently quantified the GWP of biogenic CO₂ from slow‐growing forests (GWP_bio), finding it to be significantly higher than the GWP of fossil CO₂ when a 100 year time horizon was applied. Hence, the climate impact seems to be even higher for the combustion of slow‐growing biomass than for the combustion of fossil carbon in a 100 year timeframe. The present study extends the analysis of Holtsmark (2014) in three ways. First, it includes the cooling effects of increased surface reflectivity after harvest (albedo). Second, it includes a comparison with the potential warming impact of fossil fuels, taking the CO₂ emissions per unit of energy produced into account. Third, the study links the literature estimating GWP_bio and the literature dealing with the carbon debt, and model simulations estimating the payback time of the carbon debt are presented. The conclusion is that, also after these extensions of the analysis, bioenergy from slow‐growing forests usually has a larger climate impact in a 100 year timeframe than fossil oil and gas. Whether bioenergy performs better or worse than coal depends on a number of conditions.     

Diverting residual biomass to energy use: Quantifying the global warming potential of biogenic CO2 (GWPbCO2)

To calculate the global warming potential of biogenic carbon dioxide emissions (GWP_bCO2) associated with diverting residual biomass to bioenergy use, the decay of annual biogenic carbon pulses into the atmosphere over 100 years was compared between biomass use for energy and its business-as-usual decomposition in agricultural, forestry, or landfill sites. Bioenergy use increased atmospheric CO₂ load in all cases, resulting in a ¹⁰⁰GWP_bCO2 (units of g CO₂e/g biomass CO₂ released) of 0.003 for the fast-decomposing agricultural residues to 0.029 for the slow, 0.084–0.625 for forest residues, and 0.368–0.975 for landfill lignocellulosic biomass. In comparison, carbon emissions from fossil fuels have a ¹⁰⁰GWP of 1.0 g (CO₂e/g fossil CO₂). The fast decomposition rate and the corresponding low ¹⁰⁰GWP_bCO2 values of agricultural residues make them a more climate-friendly feedstock for bioenergy production relative to forest residues and landfill lignocellulosic biomass. This study shows that CO₂ released from the combustion of bioenergy or biofuels made from residual biomass has a greenhouse gas footprint that should be considered in assessing climate impacts.     

Global Warming Potential of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Biomass Stored in the Anthroposphere and Used for Bioenergy at End of Life

There is growing interest in understanding how storage or delayed emission of carbon in products based on bioresources might mitigate climate change, and how such activities could be credited. In this research we extend the recently introduced approach that integrates biogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes with the global carbon cycle (using biogenic global warming potential [GWP_bio]) to consider the storage period of harvested biomass in the anthroposphere, with subsequent oxidation. We then examine how this affects the climate impact from a bioenergy resource. This approach is compared to several recent methods designed to address the same problem. Using both a 100‐ and a 500‐year fixed time horizon we calculate the GWP_bio factor for every combination of rotational and anthropogenic storage periods between 0 and 100 years. The resulting GWP_bio factors range from ?0.99 (1‐year rotation and 100‐year storage) to +0.44 (100‐year rotation and 0‐year storage). The approach proposed in this study includes the interface between biomass growth and emissions and the global carbon cycle, whereas other methods do not model this. These results and the characterization factors produced can determine the climate change benefits or impacts associated with the storage of biomass in the anthroposphere, and the subsequent release of biogenic CO₂ with the radiative forcing integrated in a fixed time window.     

CO2 emissions from biomass combustion for bioenergy: atmospheric decay and contribution to global warming

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from biomass combustion are traditionally assumed climate neutral if the bioenergy system is carbon (C) flux neutral, i.e. the CO₂ released from biofuel combustion approximately equals the amount of CO₂ sequestered in biomass. This convention, widely adopted in life cycle assessment (LCA) studies of bioenergy systems, underestimates the climate impact of bioenergy. Besides CO₂ emissions from permanent C losses, CO₂ emissions from C flux neutral systems (that is from temporary C losses) also contribute to climate change: before being captured by biomass regrowth, CO₂ molecules spend time in the atmosphere and contribute to global warming. In this paper, a method to estimate the climate impact of CO₂ emissions from biomass combustion is proposed. Our method uses CO₂ impulse response functions (IRF) from C cycle models in the elaboration of atmospheric decay functions for biomass‐derived CO₂ emissions. Their contributions to global warming are then quantified with a unit‐based index, the GWP_bio. Since this index is expressed as a function of the rotation period of the biomass, our results can be applied to CO₂ emissions from combustion of all the different biomass species, from annual row crops to slower growing boreal forest.     

Including albedo in time‐dependent LCA of bioenergy

Albedo change during feedstock production can substantially alter the life cycle climate impact of bioenergy. Life cycle assessment (LCA) studies have compared the effects of albedo and greenhouse gases (GHGs) based on global warming potential (GWP). However, using GWP leads to unequal weighting of climate forcers that act on different timescales. In this study, albedo was included in the time‐dependent LCA, which accounts for the timing of emissions and their impacts. We employed field‐measured albedo and life cycle emissions data along with time‐dependent models of radiative transfer, biogenic carbon fluxes and nitrous oxide emissions from soil. Climate impacts were expressed as global mean surface temperature change over time (?T) and as GWP. The bioenergy system analysed was heat and power production from short‐rotation willow grown on former fallow land in Sweden. We found a net cooling effect in terms of ?T per hectare (?3.8 × 10^–11 K in year 100) and GWP₁₀₀ per MJ fuel (?12.2 g CO₂e), as a result of soil carbon sequestration via high inputs of carbon from willow roots and litter. Albedo was higher under willow than fallow, contributing to the cooling effect and accounting for 34% of GWP₁₀₀, 36% of ?T in year 50 and 6% of ?T in year 100. Albedo dominated the short‐term temperature response (10–20 years) but became, in relative terms, less important over time, owing to accumulation of soil carbon under sustained production and the longer perturbation lifetime of GHGs. The timing of impacts was explicit with ?T, which improves the relevance of LCA results to climate targets. Our method can be used to quantify the first‐order radiative effect of albedo change on the global climate and relate it to the climate impact of GHG emissions in LCA of bioenergy, alternative energy sources or land uses.     

Carbon balance indicator for forest bioenergy scenarios

A carbon (C) balance indicator is presented for the evaluation of forest bioenergy scenarios as a means to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A bioenergy‐intensive scenario with a greater harvest is compared to a baseline scenario. The relative carbon indicator (RC) is defined as the ratio between the difference in terrestrial C stocks – that is the C debt – and the difference in cumulative bioenergy harvest between the scenarios, over a selected time frame T. A value of zero indicates no C debt from additional biomass harvests, while a value of one indicates a C debt equal to the amount of additionally harvested biomass C. Multiplying the RC indicator by the smokestack emission factor of biomass (approximately 110 t CO₂/TJ) provides the net cumulative CO₂ emission factor of the biomass combustion as a function of T, allowing a direct comparison with the emission factors of comparable fossil fuels. The indicator is applied to bioenergy cases in Finland, where typically the rotation length of managed forests is long and the decay rate of harvest residues is slow. The country‐level examples illustrate that although Finnish forests remain as a C sink in each of the considered scenarios, the efforts of increasing forest bioenergy may still increase the atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in comparison with the baseline scenario and use of fossil fuels. The results also show that the net emission factor depends – besides on forest‐growth or residue‐decay dynamics – on the timing and evolution of harvests as well. Unlike for the constant fossil C emission factor, the temporal profile of bioenergy use is of great importance for the net emission factor of biomass.     

Time‐dependent climate impact of a bioenergy system – methodology development and application to Swedish conditions

The area of dedicated energy crops is expected to increase in Sweden. This will result in direct land use changes, which may affect the carbon stocks in soil and biomass, as well as yield levels and the use of inputs. Carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes of biomass are often not considered when calculating the climate impact in life cycle assessments (LCA) assuming that the CO₂ released at combustion has recently been captured by the biomass in question. With the extended time lag between capture and release of CO₂ inherent in many perennial bioenergy systems, the relation between carbon neutrality and climate neutrality may be questioned. In this paper, previously published methodologies and models are combined in a methodological framework that can assist LCA practitioners in interpreting the time‐dependent climate impact of a bioenergy system. The treatment of carbon differs from conventional LCA practice in that no distinction is made between fossil and biogenic carbon. A time‐dependent indicator is used to enable a representation of the climate impact that is not dependent on the choice of a specific characterization time horizon or time of evaluation and that does not use characterization factors, such as global warming potential and global temperature potential. The indicator used to aid in the interpretation phase of this paper is global mean surface temperature change (ΔT_s(n)). A theoretical system producing willow for district heating was used to study land use change effects depending on previous land use and variations in the standing biomass carbon stocks. When replacing annual crops with willow this system presented a cooling contribution to ΔT_s(n). However, the first years after establishing the willow plantation it presented a warming contribution to ΔT_s(n). This behavior was due mainly to soil organic carbon (SOC) variation. A rapid initial increase in standing biomass counteracted the initial SOC loss.     

Indirect carbon dioxide emissions from producing bioenergy from forest harvest residues

Forest harvest residues are important raw materials for bioenergy in regions practicing forestry. Removing these residues from a harvest site reduces the carbon stock of the forest compared with conventional stem‐only harvest because less litter in left on the site. The indirect carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission from producing bioenergy occur when carbon in the logging residues is emitted into the atmosphere at once through combustion, instead of being released little by little as a result of decomposition at the harvest sites. In this study (1) we introduce an approach to calculate this indirect emission from using logging residues for bioenergy production, and (2) estimate this emission at a typical target of harvest residue removal, i.e. boreal Norway spruce forest in Finland. The removal of stumps caused a larger indirect emission per unit of energy produced than the removal of branches because of a lower decomposition rate of the stumps. The indirect emission per unit of energy produced decreased with time since starting to collect the harvest residues as a result of decomposition at older harvest sites. During the 100 years of conducting this practice, the indirect emission from average‐sized branches (diameter 2 cm) decreased from 340 to 70 kg CO₂ eq. MWh^?1 and that from stumps (diameter 26 cm) from 340 to 160 kg CO₂ eq. MWh^?1. These emissions are an order of magnitude larger than the other emissions (collecting, transporting, etc.) from the bioenergy production chain. When the bioenergy production was started, the total emissions were comparable to fossil fuels. The practice had to be carried out for 22 (stumps) or four (branches) years until the total emissions dropped below the emissions of natural gas. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for land‐use‐related indirect emissions to correctly estimate the efficiency of bioenergy in reducing CO₂ emission into the atmosphere.     

Back to the future: dynamic full carbon accounting applied to prospective bioenergy scenarios

Purpose

Ongoing debates focus on the role of forest-sourced bioenergy within climate mitigation efforts, due to the long rotation lengths of forest biomass. Valuing sequestration is debated due to its reversibility; however, dynamic modelling of biogenic carbon (C_bio) flows captures both negative and positive emissions. The objective of this work is to respond to the key issue of timing sequestration associated with two opposed modelling choices (historic vs. future) in the context of dynamic life cycle assessment (LCA).

Methods

The outputs of a partial-equilibrium model are used to inform prospective evaluations of the use of forest wood residues in response to an energy transition policy. Dynamic forest carbon modelling represents the carbon cycle between the atmosphere and technosphere: C_bio fixation and release through combustion and/or decay. Time-dependent characterization is used to assess the time-sensitive climate change effects. The two C_bio sequestration perspectives for bioenergy (forest biomass use) and reference (no use) scenarios are contrasted to assess (i) their temporal profiles, (ii) their climatic consequences concerning C-complete (fossil + biogenic C) vs. C-neutral (fossil C) approaches, and (iii) the implications of comparing the two approaches with dynamic LCA.

Results and discussion

Full lifetime carbon accounting confirms that C_bio entering the bioenergy system equals the C_bio leaving it in the net balance, but not within annual dynamic balances, which alter the atmospheric greenhouse gas composition. The impacts of the historic approach differed considerably from those of the future. Moreover, the “no use” scenario yielded higher forcing effects than the “bioenergy” due to the higher methane proportions. The chicken-egg dilemma arises in attributional LCA: as the forcing depends on the timing of the C_bio sequestration and its allocation to a harvest activity. A decision tree supported by case study applications provides general rules for selecting the adequate time-related modelling approach based the criteria of provision of wood and regrowth from managed and unmanaged forests, determined by the origin of biotic resources and related spheres.

Conclusions

Excluding dynamic C_bio introduces under- (future) or over- (historic) estimation of the results, misleading mitigation decisions. Further research is needed to close the gap between forest stand and landscape level, addressing issues beyond the chicken-egg dilemma and developing complete dynamic LCA studies.

     

The role of forest residues in the accounting for the global warming potential of bioenergy

Bioenergy makes up a significant portion of the global primary energy pie, and its production from modernized technology is foreseen to substantially increase. The climate neutrality of biogenic CO₂ emissions from bioenergy grown from sustainably managed biomass resource pools has recently been questioned. The temporary change caused in atmospheric CO₂ concentration from biogenic carbon fluxes was found to be largely dependent on the length of biomass rotation period. In this work, we also show the importance of accounting for the unutilized biomass that is left to decompose in the resource pool and how the characterization factor for the climate impact of biogenic CO₂ emissions changes whether residues are removed for bioenergy or not. With the case of Norwegian Spruce biomass grown in Norway, we found that significantly more biogenic CO₂ emissions should be accounted towards contributing to global warming potential when residues are left in the forest. For a 100‐year time horizon, the global warming potential bio factors suggest that between 44 and 62% of carbon‐flux, neutral biogenic CO₂ emissions at the energy conversion plant should be attributed to causing equivalent climate change potential as fossil‐based CO₂ emissions. For a given forest residue extraction scenario, the same factor should be applied to the combustion of any combination of stem and forest residues. Life cycle analysis practitioners should take these impacts into account and similar region/species specific factors should be developed.     

Carbon debt and carbon sequestration parity in forest bioenergy production

The capacity for forests to aid in climate change mitigation efforts is substantial but will ultimately depend on their management. If forests remain unharvested, they can further mitigate the increases in atmospheric CO₂ that result from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation. Alternatively, they can be harvested for bioenergy production and serve as a substitute for fossil fuels, though such a practice could reduce terrestrial C storage and thereby increase atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in the near‐term. Here, we used an ecosystem simulation model to ascertain the effectiveness of using forest bioenergy as a substitute for fossil fuels, drawing from a broad range of land‐use histories, harvesting regimes, ecosystem characteristics, and bioenergy conversion efficiencies. Results demonstrate that the times required for bioenergy substitutions to repay the C Debt incurred from biomass harvest are usually much shorter (< 100 years) than the time required for bioenergy production to substitute the amount of C that would be stored if the forest were left unharvested entirely, a point we refer to as C Sequestration Parity. The effectiveness of substituting woody bioenergy for fossil fuels is highly dependent on the factors that determine bioenergy conversion efficiency, such as the C emissions released during the harvest, transport, and firing of woody biomass. Consideration of the frequency and intensity of biomass harvests should also be given; performing total harvests (clear‐cutting) at high‐frequency may produce more bioenergy than less intensive harvesting regimes but may decrease C storage and thereby prolong the time required to achieve C Sequestration Parity.     

The effect of biomass harvesting on greenhouse gas emissions from a rewetted temperate fen

The growing demand for bioenergy increases pressure on peatlands. The novel strategy of wet peatlands agriculture (paludiculture) may permit the production of bioenergy from biomass while avoiding large greenhouse gas emissions as occur during conventional crop cultivation on drained peat soils. Herein, we present the first greenhouse gas balances of a simulated paludiculture to assess its suitability as a biomass source from a climatic perspective. In a rewetted peatland, we performed closed‐chamber measurements of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide exchange in stands of the potential crops Phragmites australis, Typha latifolia, and Carex acutiformis for two consecutive years. To simulate harvest, the biomass of half of the measurement spots was removed once per year. Carbon dioxide exchange was close to neutral in all tested stands. The effect of biomass harvest on the carbon dioxide exchange differed between the 2 years. During the first and second year, methane emissions were 13–63 g m^?2 a^?1 and 2–5 g m^?2 a^?1, respectively. Nitrous oxide emissions lay below our detection limit. Net greenhouse gas balances in the study plots were close to being climate neutral during both years except for the Carex stand, which was a source of greenhouse gases in the first year (in CO₂‐equivalents: 18 t ha^?1 a^?1). Fifteen years after rewetting the net greenhouse gas balance of the study site was similar to those of pristine fens. In addition, we did not find a significant short‐term effect of biomass harvest on net greenhouse gas balances. In our ecosystem, ~17 t ha^?1 a^?1 of CO₂‐equivalent emissions are saved by rewetting compared to a drained state. Applying this figure to the fen area in northern Germany, emission savings of 2.8–8.5 Mt a^?1 CO₂‐equivalents could possibly be achieved by rewetting; this excludes additional savings by fossil fuel replacement.     

Consequential life cycle assessment of biogas,biofuel and biomass energy options within an arable crop rotation

Feed in tariffs (FiTs) and renewable heat incentives (RHIs) are driving a rapid expansion in anaerobic digestion (AD) coupled with combined heat and power (CHP) plants in the UK. Farm models were combined with consequential life cycle assessment (CLCA) to assess the net environmental balance of representative biogas, biofuel and biomass scenarios on a large arable farm, capturing crop rotation and digestate nutrient cycling effects. All bioenergy options led to avoided fossil resource depletion. Global warming potential (GWP) balances ranged from ?1732 kg CO₂e Mg^?1 dry matter (DM) for pig slurry AD feedstock after accounting for avoided slurry storage to +2251 kg CO₂e Mg^?1 DM for oilseed rape biodiesel feedstock after attributing indirect land use change (iLUC) to displaced food production. Maize monoculture for AD led to net GWP increases via iLUC, but optimized integration of maize into an arable rotation resulted in negligible food crop displacement and iLUC. However, even under best‐case assumptions such as full use of heat output from AD‐CHP, crop–biogas achieved low GWP reductions per hectare compared with Miscanthus heating pellets under default estimates of iLUC. Ecosystem services (ES) assessment highlighted soil and water quality risks for maize cultivation. All bioenergy crop options led to net increases in eutrophication after displaced food production was accounted for. The environmental balance of AD is sensitive to design and management factors such as digestate storage and application techniques, which are not well regulated in the UK. Currently, FiT payments are not dependent on compliance with sustainability criteria. We conclude that CLCA and ES effects should be integrated into sustainability criteria for FiTs and RHIs, to direct public money towards resource‐efficient renewable energy options that achieve genuine climate protection without degrading soil, air or water quality.     

Implementing an appropriate metric for the assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from livestock production: A national case study

Livestock farming is of major economic relevance but also severely contributes to environmental impacts, especially greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions such as methane (CH₄; particularly from ruminant production) and nitrous oxide (N₂O; mainly from manure management and soil cultivated for feed production). In this study, we analyse the impact of GHG emissions from Austrian livestock production, using two metrics: a) the commonly used global warming potential (GWP) over 100 years (GWP₁₀₀ in CO₂-equivalents, CO₂-e), and b) the recently introduced metric GWP*, which describes additional warming as a function of the timeline of short-lived GHG emissions (unit CO₂ warming equivalents, CO₂-we). We first compiled the sectoral (i.e. only direct emissions without upstream processes) GWP₁₀₀ for different livestock categories with a focus on dairy cattle, beef cattle and pigs in Austria between 1990 and 2019. We also estimated product-related (i.e. per kg carcass weight or per litre of milk) GWP₁₀₀ values, including upstream processes. We then calculated the corresponding GWP* metrics, both sectoral and product-related, and compared them with the GWP₁₀₀ values. Decreasing livestock numbers and improved production efficiency were found to result in strong sectoral emission reductions from dairy production (–32 % of GWP₁₀₀ from 1990 to 2019) and from pigs (–32 % CO₂-e). This contrasts with low reductions from other livestock categories and even increases for cattle other than dairy cows (+3 % CO₂-e), mainly due to rising suckler cow numbers. Allocated results per kg milk and kg body mass show quite similar results. Using the GWP* metric, the climate impacts of Austrian livestock production are less severe. When assuming constant management and emission intensity over a period of at least 20 years, the CO₂-we (GWP*) is almost 50 % less than CO₂-e (GWP₁₀₀) per kg Austrian raw milk due to the different impacts of the short-lived CH₄. A similar trend applies to an average cattle carcass (-40 % warming impact). The emission reductions of the shrinking Austrian livestock population represent an important contribution to a climate-neutral agriculture: The CH₄ reductions of livestock production during the past 20 years reduce the current total Austrian CO₂-we by 16 %. Continuous CH₄ reduction, as we show it here for Austrian livestock, is an effective option to tackle the climate crisis in the short term. It shall be stressed that a relatively low GWP* should not be interpreted as a concession for further CH₄ emissions but as an actual reduction of (additional) warming.     

Carbon and nitrogen dynamics in bioenergy ecosystems: 2. Potential greenhouse gas emissions and global warming intensity in the conterminous United States

This study estimated the potential emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) from bioenergy ecosystems with a biogeochemical model AgTEM, assuming maize (Zea mays L.), switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), and Miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus) will be grown on the current maize‐producing areas in the conterminous United States. We found that the maize ecosystem acts as a mild net carbon source while cellulosic ecosystems (i.e., switchgrass and Miscanthus) act as mild sinks. Nitrogen fertilizer use is an important factor affecting biomass production and N₂O emissions, especially in the maize ecosystem. To maintain high biomass productivity, the maize ecosystem emits much more GHG, including CO₂ and N₂O, than switchgrass and Miscanthus ecosystems, when high‐rate nitrogen fertilizers are applied. For maize, the global warming potential (GWP) amounts to 1–2 Mg CO₂eq ha^?1 yr^?1, with a dominant contribution of over 90% from N₂O emissions. Cellulosic crops contribute to the GWP of less than 0.3 Mg CO₂eq ha^?1 yr^?1. Among all three bioenergy crops, Miscanthus is the most biofuel productive and the least GHG intensive at a given cropland. Regional model simulations suggested that substituting Miscanthus for maize to produce biofuel could potentially save land and reduce GHG emissions.     

Forest bioenergy climate impact can be improved by allocating forest residue removal

Bioenergy from forest residues can be used to avoid fossil carbon emissions, but removing biomass from forests reduces carbon stock sizes and carbon input to litter and soil. The magnitude and longevity of these carbon stock changes determine how effective measures to utilize bioenergy from forest residues are to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the energy sector and to mitigate climate change. In this study, we estimate the variability of GHG emissions and consequent climate impacts resulting from producing bioenergy from stumps, branches and residual biomass of forest thinning operations in Finland, and the contribution of the variability in key factors, i.e. forest residue diameter, tree species, geographical location of the forest biomass removal site and harvesting method, to the emissions and their climate impact. The GHG emissions and the consequent climate impacts estimated as changes in radiative forcing were comparable to fossil fuels when bioenergy production from forest residues was initiated. The emissions and climate impacts decreased over time because forest residues were predicted to decompose releasing CO₂ even if left in the forest. Both were mainly affected by forest residue diameter and climatic conditions of the forest residue collection site. Tree species and the harvest method of thinning wood (whole tree or stem‐only) had a smaller effect on the magnitude of emissions. The largest reduction in the energy production climate impacts after 20 years, up to 62%, was achieved when coal was replaced by the branches collected from Southern Finland, whereas the smallest reduction 7% was gained by using stumps from Northern Finland instead of natural gas. After 100 years the corresponding values were 77% and 21%. The choice of forest residue biomass collected affects significantly the emissions and climate impacts of forest bioenergy.     

Using ecosystem CO2 measurements to estimate the timing and magnitude of greenhouse gas mitigation potential of forest bioenergy

Forest bioenergy opportunities may be hindered by a long greenhouse gas (GHG) payback time. Estimating this payback time requires the quantification of forest‐atmosphere carbon exchanges, usually through process‐based simulation models. Such models are prone to large uncertainties, especially over long‐term carbon fluxes from dead organic matter pools. We propose the use of whole ecosystem field‐measured CO₂ exchanges obtained from eddy covariance flux towers to assess the GHG mitigation potential of forest biomass projects as a way to implicitly integrate all field‐level CO₂ fluxes and the inter‐annual variability in these fluxes. As an example, we perform the evaluation of a theoretical bioenergy project that uses tree stems as bioenergy feedstock and include multi‐year measurements of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) from forest harvest chronosequences in the boreal forest of Canada to estimate the time dynamics of ecosystem CO₂ exchanges following harvesting. Results from this approach are consistent with previous results using process‐based models and suggest a multi‐decadal payback time for our project. The time for atmospheric carbon debt repayment of bioenergy projects is highly dependent on ecosystem‐level CO₂ exchanges. The use of empirical NEE measurements may provide a direct evaluation of, or at least constraints on, the GHG mitigation potential of forest bioenergy projects.     

Damaged forests provide an opportunity to mitigate climate change

British Columbia (BC) forests are estimated to have become a net carbon source in recent years due to tree death and decay caused primarily by mountain pine beetle (MPB) and related post‐harvest slash burning practices. BC forest biomass has also become a major source of wood pellets, exported primarily for bioenergy to Europe, although the sustainability and net carbon emissions of forest bioenergy in general are the subject of current debate. We simulated the temporal carbon balance of BC wood pellets against different reference scenarios for forests affected by MPB in the interior BC timber harvesting area using the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM‐CFS3). We evaluated the carbon dynamics for different insect‐mortality levels, at the stand‐ and landscape level, taking into account carbon storage in the ecosystem, wood products and fossil fuel displacement. Our results indicate that current harvesting practices, in which slash is burnt and only sawdust used for pellet production, require between 20–25 years for beetle‐impacted pine and 37–39 years for spruce‐dominated systems to reach pre‐harvest carbon levels (i.e. break‐even) at the stand‐level. Using pellets made from logging slash to replace coal creates immediate net carbon benefits to the atmosphere of 17–21 tonnes C ha^?1, shortening these break‐even times by 9–20 years and resulting in an instant carbon break‐even level on stands most severely impacted by the beetle. Harvesting pine dominated sites for timber while using slash for bioenergy was also found to be more carbon beneficial than a protection reference scenario on both stand‐ and landscape level. However, harvesting stands exclusively for bioenergy resulted in a net carbon source unless the system contained a high proportion of dead trees (>85%). Systems with higher proportions of living trees provide a greater climate change mitigation if used for long lived wood products.     

Climate change mitigation potential of local use of harvest residues for bioenergy in Canada

We estimate the mitigation potential of local use of bioenergy from harvest residues for the 2.3 × 10⁶ km² (232 Mha) of Canada's managed forests from 2017 to 2050 using three models: Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM‐CFS3), a harvested wood products (HWP) model that estimates bioenergy emissions, and a model of emission substitution benefits from the use of bioenergy. We compare the use of harvest residues for local heat and electricity production relative to a base case scenario and estimate the climate change mitigation potential at the forest management unit level. Results demonstrate large differences between and within provinces and territories across Canada. We identify regions with increasing benefits to the atmosphere for many decades into the future and regions where no net benefit would occur over the 33‐year study horizon. The cumulative mitigation potential for regions with positive mitigation was predicted to be 429 Tg CO₂e in 2050, with 7.1 TgC yr ^?1 of harvest residues producing bioenergy that met 3.1% of the heat demand and 2.9% of the electricity demand for 32.1 million people living within these regions. Our results show that regions with positive mitigation produced bioenergy, mainly from combined heat and power facilities, with emissions intensities that ranged from roughly 90 to 500 kg CO₂e MWh^?1. Roughly 40% of the total captured harvest residue was associated with regions that were predicted to have a negative cumulative mitigation potential in 2050 of ?152 Tg CO₂e. We conclude that the capture of harvest residues to produce local bioenergy can reduce GHG emissions in populated regions where bioenergy, mainly from combined heat and power facilities, offsets fossil fuel sources (fuel oil, coal and petcoke, and natural gas).     

The outcome is in the assumptions: analyzing the effects on atmospheric CO2 levels of increased use of bioenergy from forest biomass

Recently, several studies have quantified the effects on atmospheric CO₂ concentration of an increased harvest level in forests. Although these studies agreed in their estimates of forest productivity, their conclusions were contradictory. This study tested the effect of four assumptions by which those papers differed. These assumptions regard (1) whether a single or a set of repeated harvests were considered, (2) at what stage in stand growth harvest takes place, (3) how the baseline is constructed, and (4) whether a carbon‐cycle model is applied. A main finding was that current and future increase in the use of bioenergy should be studied considering a series of repeated harvests. Moreover, the time of harvest should be determined based on economical principles, thus taking place before stand growth culminates, which has implications for the design of the baseline scenario. When the most realistic assumptions are used and a carbon‐cycle model is applied, an increased harvest level in forests leads to a permanent increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration.