Evaluating regional resiliency of coastal wetlands to sea level rise through hypsometry‐based modeling

Sea level rise (SLR) threatens coastal wetlands worldwide, yet the fate of individual wetlands will vary based on local topography, wetland morphology, sediment dynamics, hydrologic processes, and plant‐mediated feedbacks. Local variability in these factors makes it difficult to predict SLR effects across wetlands or to develop a holistic regional perspective on SLR response for a diversity of wetland types. To improve regional predictions of SLR impacts to coastal wetlands, we developed a model that addresses the scale‐dependent factors controlling SLR response and accommodates different levels of data availability. The model quantifies SLR‐driven habitat conversion within wetlands across a region by predicting changes in individual wetland hypsometry. This standardized approach can be applied to all wetlands in a region regardless of data availability, making it ideal for modeling SLR response across a range of scales. Our model was applied to 105 wetlands in southern California that spanned a broad range of typology and data availability. Our findings suggest that if wetlands are confined to their current extents, the region will lose 12% of marsh habitats (vegetated marsh and unvegetated flats) with 0.6 m of SLR (projected for 2050) and 48% with 1.7 m of SLR (projected for 2100). Habitat conversion was more drastic in wetlands with larger proportions of marsh habitats relative to subtidal habitats and occurred more rapidly in small lagoons relative to larger sites. Our assessment can inform management of coastal wetland vulnerability, improve understanding of the SLR drivers relevant to individual wetlands, and highlight significant data gaps that impede SLR response modeling across spatial scales. This approach augments regional SLR assessments by considering spatial variability in SLR response drivers, addressing data gaps, and accommodating wetland diversity, which will provide greater insights into regional SLR response that are relevant to coastal management and restoration efforts.     

Sea‐level rise,habitat loss,and potential extirpation of a salt marsh specialist bird in urbanized landscapes

Sea‐level rise (SLR) impacts on intertidal habitat depend on coastal topology, accretion, and constraints from surrounding development. Such habitat changes might affect species like Belding's savannah sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis beldingi; BSSP), which live in high‐elevation salt marsh in the Southern California Bight. To predict how BSSP habitat might change under various SLR scenarios, we first constructed a suitability model by matching bird observations with elevation. We then mapped current BSSP breeding and foraging habitat at six estuarine sites by applying the elevation‐suitability model to digital elevation models. To estimate changes in digital elevation models under different SLR scenarios, we used a site‐specific, one‐dimensional elevation model (wetland accretion rate model of ecosystem resilience). We then applied our elevation‐suitability model to the projected digital elevation models. The resulting maps suggest that suitable breeding and foraging habitat could decline as increased inundation converts middle‐ and high‐elevation suitable habitat to mudflat and subtidal zones. As a result, the highest SLR scenario predicted that no suitable breeding or foraging habitat would remain at any site by 2100 and 2110. Removing development constraints to facilitate landward migration of high salt marsh, or redistributing dredge spoils to replace submerged habitat, might create future high salt marsh habitat, thereby reducing extirpation risk for BSSP in southern California.     

Processes Contributing to Resilience of Coastal Wetlands to Sea-Level Rise

The objectives of this study were to identify processes that contribute to resilience of coastal wetlands subject to rising sea levels and to determine whether the relative contribution of these processes varies across different wetland community types. We assessed the resilience of wetlands to sea-level rise along a transitional gradient from tidal freshwater forested wetland (TFFW) to marsh by measuring processes controlling wetland elevation. We found that, over 5 years of measurement, TFFWs were resilient, although some marginally, and oligohaline marshes exhibited robust resilience to sea-level rise. We identified fundamental differences in how resilience is maintained across wetland community types, which have important implications for management activities that aim to restore or conserve resilient systems. We showed that the relative importance of surface and subsurface processes in controlling wetland surface elevation change differed between TFFWs and oligohaline marshes. The marshes had significantly higher rates of surface accretion than the TFFWs, and in the marshes, surface accretion was the primary contributor to elevation change. In contrast, elevation change in TFFWs was more heavily influenced by subsurface processes, such as root zone expansion or compaction, which played an important role in determining resilience of TFFWs to rising sea level. When root zone contributions were removed statistically from comparisons between relative sea-level rise and surface elevation change, sites that previously had elevation rate deficits showed a surplus. Therefore, assessments of wetland resilience that do not include subsurface processes will likely misjudge vulnerability to sea-level rise.     

Managing for change: wetland transitions under sea‐level rise and outcomes for threatened species

Aim Global sea‐level rise (SLR) could be as much as 1.8 metres by 2100, which will impact coastal wetland communities and threatened species. We evaluated the likely outcomes of SLR for wetland communities using a process‐based simulation model and coupled this with a metapopulation model for a threatened native rodent (Xeromys myoides). Furthermore, we tested the amplified impacts of SLR, urban growth and introduced predators on X. myoides persistence. Location South‐east Queensland, Australia. Methods We adapted the Sea Level Affects Marshes Model to subtropical Australia. We used LiDAR elevation data, field data to parameterize surface accretion and shallow subsidence, and local knowledge to configure wetland transitions. SLR was simulated based on the IPCC B1 and A1FI scenarios, as well as the maximal limit of 1.8 m by 2100. Further, we coupled our demographic model to projected shifts in wetland habitat, and estimates of future wetland loss to urban expansion and feral cat (Felis catus) predation. Results Our models project a general decline in wetland communities under SLR, with a noted exception of mangroves. Under the A1FI scenario, SLR allows mangroves to migrate inland, with urban development acting as an obstruction in some areas. Mangrove expansion provides an unexpected benefit for dependent X. myoides populations, although the inclusion of predation and habitat loss due to urban development still suggests extirpation in c. 50 years. Main conclusions Through this case study, we illustrate the usefulness of process‐based SLR models in understanding outcomes for wetland communities and dependent species. Our models will underscore decision‐making in a dynamic system, with global applications for urban planning, conservation prioritization and wildlife management.     

The effect of increasing salinity and forest mortality on soil nitrogen and phosphorus mineralization in tidal freshwater forested wetlands

Tidal freshwater wetlands are sensitive to sea level rise and increased salinity, although little information is known about the impact of salinification on nutrient biogeochemistry in tidal freshwater forested wetlands. We quantified soil nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) mineralization using seasonal in situ incubations of modified resin cores along spatial gradients of chronic salinification (from continuously freshwater tidal forest to salt impacted tidal forest to oligohaline marsh) and in hummocks and hollows of the continuously freshwater tidal forest along the blackwater Waccamaw River and alluvial Savannah River. Salinification increased rates of net N and P mineralization fluxes and turnover in tidal freshwater forested wetland soils, most likely through tree stress and senescence (for N) and conversion to oligohaline marsh (for P). Stimulation of N and P mineralization by chronic salinification was apparently unrelated to inputs of sulfate (for N and P) or direct effects of increased soil conductivity (for N). In addition, the tidal wetland soils of the alluvial river mineralized more P relative to N than the blackwater river. Finally, hummocks had much greater nitrification fluxes than hollows at the continuously freshwater tidal forested wetland sites. These findings add to knowledge of the responses of tidal freshwater ecosystems to sea level rise and salinification that is necessary to predict the consequences of state changes in coastal ecosystem structure and function due to global change, including potential impacts on estuarine eutrophication.     

Tidal freshwater forest accretion does not keep pace with sea level rise

Soil properties, accretion, and accumulation were measured in tidal freshwater forests (tidal forests) of the Ogeechee, Altamaha, and Satilla rivers of the South Atlantic (Georgia USA) coast to characterize carbon (C) sequestration and nutrient (nitrogen‐N, phosphorus‐P) accumulation in these understudied, uncommon, and ecologically sensitive wetlands. Carbon sequestration and N and P accumulation also were measured in a tidal forest (South Newport River) that experiences saltwater intrusion to evaluate the effects of sea level rise (SLR) and saltwater intrusion on C, N and P accumulation. Finally, soil accretion and accumulation of tidal forests were compared with tidal fresh, brackish and salt marsh vegetation downstream to gauge how tidal forests may respond to SLR. Soil accretion determined using ¹³⁷C and ²¹⁰Pb averaged 1.3 and 2.2 mm yr^?1, respectively, and was substantially lower than the recent rate of SLR along the Georgia coast (3.0 mm yr^?1). Healthy tidal forest soils sequestered C (49–82 g m^?2 yr^?1), accumulated N (3.2–5.3 g m^?2 yr^?1) and P (0.29–0.56 g m^?2 yr^?1) and trapped mineral sediment (340–650 g m^?2 yr^?1). There was no difference in long‐term accretion, C sequestration, and nutrient accumulation between healthy tidal forests and tidal forests of the South Newport River that experience saltwater intrusion. Accelerated SLR is likely to lead to decline of tidal forests and expansion of oligohaline and brackish marshes where soil accretion exceeds the current rate of SLR. Conversion of tidal forest to marshes will lead to an increase in the delivery of some ecosystem services such as C sequestration and sediment trapping, but at the expense of other services (e.g. denitrification, migratory songbird habitat). As sea level rises in response to global warming, tidal forests and their delivery of ecosystem services face a tenuous future unless they can migrate upriver, and that is unlikely in most areas because of topographic constraints and increasing urbanization of the coastal zone.     

Thresholds of sea‐level rise rate and sea‐level rise acceleration rate in a vulnerable coastal wetland

Feedbacks among inundation, sediment trapping, and vegetation productivity help maintain coastal wetlands facing sea‐level rise (SLR ). However, when the SLR rate exceeds a threshold, coastal wetlands can collapse. Understanding the threshold helps address key challenges in ecology—nonlinear response of ecosystems to environmental change, promotes communication between ecologists and resource managers, and facilitates decision‐making in climate change policies. We studied the threshold of SLR rate and developed a new threshold of SLR acceleration rate on sustainability of coastal wetlands as SLR is likely to accelerate due to enhanced anthropogenic forces. Deriving these two thresholds depends on the temporal scale, the interaction of SLR with other environmental factors, and landscape metrics, which have not been fully accounted for before this study. We chose a representative marine‐dominated estuary in the northern Gulf of Mexico, Grand Bay in Mississippi, to test the concept of SLR thresholds. We developed a mechanistic model to simulate wetland change and then derived the SLR thresholds for Grand Bay. The model results show that the threshold of SLR rate in Grand Bay is 11.9 mm/year for 2050, and it drops to 8.4 mm/year for 2100 using total wetland area as a landscape metric. The corresponding SLR acceleration rate thresholds are 3.02 × 10^?4 m/year² and 9.62 × 10^?5 m/year² for 2050 and 2100, respectively. The newly developed SLR acceleration rate threshold can help quantify the temporal lag before the rapid decline in wetland area becomes evident after the SLR rate threshold is exceeded, and cumulative SLR a wetland can adapt to under the SLR acceleration scenarios. Based on the thresholds, SLR that will adversely impact the coastal wetlands in Grand Bay by 2100 will fall within the likely range of SLR under a high warming scenario (RCP 8.5), highlighting the need to avoid RCP 8.5 to preserve these marshes.     

Effects of Natural and Anthropogenic Change on Habitat Use and Movement of Endangered Salt Marsh Harvest Mice

The northern salt marsh harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys raviventris halicoetes) is an endangered species endemic to the San Francisco Bay Estuary. Using a conservation behavior perspective, we examined how salt marsh harvest mice cope with both natural (daily tidal fluctuations) and anthropogenic (modification of tidal regime) changes in natural tidal wetlands and human-created diked wetlands, and investigated the role of behavioral flexibility in utilizing a human-created environment in the Suisun Marsh. We used radio telemetry to determine refuge use at high tide, space use, and movement rates to investigate possible differences in movement behavior in tidal versus diked wetlands. We found that the vast majority of the time salt marsh harvest mice remain in vegetation above the water during high tides. We also found no difference in space used by mice during high tide as compared to before or after high tide in either tidal or diked wetlands. We found no detectable difference in diurnal or nocturnal movement rates in tidal wetlands. However, we did find that diurnal movement rates for mice in diked wetlands were lower than nocturnal movement rates, especially during the new moon. This change in movement behavior in a relatively novel human-created habitat indicates that behavioral flexibility may facilitate the use of human-created environments by salt marsh harvest mice.     

Biodiversity dynamics of freshwater wetland ecosystems affected by secondary salinisation and seasonal hydrology variation: a model-based study

Freshwater wetlands worldwide are under threat from secondary salinisation and climate change. Given that many freshwater wetlands naturally have highly variable hydrology, it is important to understand the combined effects of salinity and water regime on wetland biodiversity. Here a mathematical model has been developed to explore the biodiversity dynamics of freshwater wetland ecosystems affected by secondary salinisation and seasonal hydrology variation. The model shows that seasonal hydrological change can drive the wetland ecosystem into a stable oscillatory state of biodiversity, with the same period as the wetting and drying cycle. The initial condition of a wetland mediates the ecological response of the wetland ecosystem to salinity and seasonal variability. There are two manifestations of stability that occur in relation to wetland biodiversity: monostability and bistability. In model simulations, some wetland ecosystems may respond to the effects of seasonal change quickly, while others may do so more slowly. In ‘slow response’ wetlands, seasonal variability has a weak impact on the ecosystem properties of stability, resilience, sensitivity and the species richness–mean salinity relationship. In contrast, ‘fast response’ wetlands are seasonally controlled heavily. Seasonal variability can play a critical role in determining ecosystem properties. Changes in the strength of seasonality can induce the transition between monostability and bistability. Seasonal variability may also reduce wetland resilience, exacerbating the risk of secondary salinisation. On the other hand, seasonal variability may provide opportunities for the restoration of salinised wetlands by increasing their sensitivity to management actions and facilitating recovery processes. Model simulations show that the response of the stable biodiversity oscillation to changing mean salinity is dependent on seasonality strength (primarily for fast response wetlands) and other wetland conditions. Generally, there are two types of wetland responses to changes in mean salinity: type 1 wetlands exhibit a graded response of species richness (a surrogate for biodiversity), whereas a hysteretic response occurs in type 2 wetlands. Species diversity displays critical behaviour: regime shifts in diversity occur at the thresholds of mean salinity, strength of seasonality or initial species diversity. The predictions are consistent with previously-published field observations in salinised freshwater wetlands. Handling editor: D. Hamilton     

Fish community responses to ecosystem stressors in coastal estuarine wetlands: a functional basis for wetlands management and restoration

Functional responses of estuarine fish species to environmental perturbations such as wetland impoundment, changes in water quality, and sediment accretion are investigated. The study focuses on the feeding, growth and habitat use by California killifish (Fundulus parvipinnis), topsmelt (Antherinops affinis), and juvenile California halibut (Paralichthys californicus) in impacted coastal wetlands to provide an ecological basis for guidance on the management and restoration of these ecosystems. The ecology of California killifish, Fundulus parvipinnis, is closely tied with the marsh surface, which they access at high tide to feed and grow. Field estimates of food consumption show that killifish can increase their food intake by two-fold to five-fold by adding marsh surface foods to their diet. Bioenergetics modeling predicts that killifish can grow over an order of magnitude faster if they add intertidal marsh surfaces to their subtidal feeding areas. Tidal inlet closures and increased marsh surface elevations due to sediment accretion can restrict killifish access to the marsh surface, affecting its growth and fitness. An open tidal inlet and tidal creek networks that allow killifish to access the marsh at high tide must be incorporated into the restoration design. Topsmelt and California halibut are also adversely affected by tidal inlet closures. Food consumption rates of topsmelt are 50% lower when the tidal inlet is closed, compared to when the estuary is tidally-flushed. Tidal inlet closures inadvertently induce variations in water temperature and salinity and negatively affect growth of juvenile California halibut. Tidal creek networks which consist of channels and creeks of various orders are also important to halibut. Large halibut (>200 mm TL) inhabit deeper, high order channels for thermal refuge, while small halibut (<120 mm TL) are abundant in lower order channels where they can feed on small-sized prey which are typically less abundant in high order channels. Maintaining an open tidal inlet, implementing sediment management programs and designing coastal wetlands with tidal creek networks adjacent to intertidal salt marsh habitat (for fish access) are key elements that need to be considered during the planning and implementation of coastal wetland restoration projects.     

Tagus estuary salt marshes feedback to sea level rise over a 40-year period: Insights from the application of geochemical indices

Sea level rise (SLR) has been evaluated using data acquired from two Tagus estuary salt marshes. Sediment accumulation rates over a 40-year study period were determined using ¹³⁷Cs along with an evaluation of several geochemical indices and ratios as proxies of the mechisms underlying these SAR variations. Correlating SLR data from 1963 to 2001 with the sediment accretion rates (SARs) an inverse pattern of interaction was observed, with lower SAR associated to periods of higher mean sea level (MSL) heights. This pointed out to an erosion effect of the salt marsh during higher tidal flooding. Although SLR apparently slows down SAR, it still presents a positive balance with SLR, similar to that identified in most mesotidal estuaries. The geochemical analysis of sediments and chemical alteration index (CAI) also suggest that the major processes inherent to the SAR vary inversely, being mostly based by physical disturbances. Geochemical ratio-based indices showed that both salt marshes presented enhanced high-energy transport driven inputs of sediments, although in Pancas salt marsh there is a slight evidence of chemical weathering of the sediments. Anthropogenic contamination of the sediments by heavy metals was identified and has been decreasing from 1963 to 2001, mostly linked to a marked reduction of industrial activities in some areas surrounding the Tagus estuary, rather than the sedimentary history of the estuary.     

Bibliometrical study method on tidal freshwater marshes loss and research orientation

Many studies concerning wetland loss have been conducted in the last two decades. However, tidal freshwater marsh’s research topics, mirroring hot points, vary in scientific community and change over time. A bibliometrical analysis method is demonstrated in this paper to describe tidal freshwater marsh research and changes in the research over time. For example, habitat restoration, soil composition, plantation pattern and coastal wetland have drawn increasing attention since 2005. The bibliographic methods described in this paper involved the use of 54 case studies to find critical paths regarding how tidal freshwater wetland loss has been induced by different causes. From case studies, it has been concluded that urbanization is the most important cause of tidal freshwater marsh loss. Critical paths of tidal freshwater marsh loss driving forces have been also demonstrated in this paper.     

Evaluating tidal marsh sustainability in the face of sea-level rise: a hybrid modeling approach applied to San Francisco Bay

Background

Tidal marshes will be threatened by increasing rates of sea-level rise (SLR) over the next century. Managers seek guidance on whether existing and restored marshes will be resilient under a range of potential future conditions, and on prioritizing marsh restoration and conservation activities.

Methodology

Building upon established models, we developed a hybrid approach that involves a mechanistic treatment of marsh accretion dynamics and incorporates spatial variation at a scale relevant for conservation and restoration decision-making. We applied this model to San Francisco Bay, using best-available elevation data and estimates of sediment supply and organic matter accumulation developed for 15 Bay subregions. Accretion models were run over 100 years for 70 combinations of starting elevation, mineral sediment, organic matter, and SLR assumptions. Results were applied spatially to evaluate eight Bay-wide climate change scenarios.

Principal Findings

Model results indicated that under a high rate of SLR (1.65 m/century), short-term restoration of diked subtidal baylands to mid marsh elevations (−0.2 m MHHW) could be achieved over the next century with sediment concentrations greater than 200 mg/L. However, suspended sediment concentrations greater than 300 mg/L would be required for 100-year mid marsh sustainability (i.e., no elevation loss). Organic matter accumulation had minimal impacts on this threshold. Bay-wide projections of marsh habitat area varied substantially, depending primarily on SLR and sediment assumptions. Across all scenarios, however, the model projected a shift in the mix of intertidal habitats, with a loss of high marsh and gains in low marsh and mudflats.

Conclusions/Significance

Results suggest a bleak prognosis for long-term natural tidal marsh sustainability under a high-SLR scenario. To minimize marsh loss, we recommend conserving adjacent uplands for marsh migration, redistributing dredged sediment to raise elevations, and concentrating restoration efforts in sediment-rich areas. To assist land managers, we developed a web-based decision support tool (www.prbo.org/sfbayslr).     

浙江秀山岛湿地生态系统初探

秀山岛位于东海舟山渔场海域,岛上有大片的湿地资源分布,其滨海部分与舟山渔场的生物资源特别是渔业生物资源密切联系,具有罕见的海岛特色。海岛的特殊地理位置为秀山岛湿地赋予了独特的生态特征。秀山岛湿地内动植物资源丰富,生物多样性高,共有植物种类300余种,栖息的鸟类共有26个科108种,包括国家一级保护动物东方自鹳（Ixobrychus minutus）。还有国家二级保护动物獐（Hydropotes inermis）等珍贵动物自然栖息。秀山岛湿地包括潮下带湿地（浅海湾）、潮间带湿地（泥滩、芦苇丛）、潮上带湿地（咸水沼泽、半咸水沼泽）、异化湿地（盐田、养殖池、稻田）等几个紧密联系的部分。具有多方面的生态功能。由于对湿地的生态功能重视不够,湿地生态系统破碎化严重。目前在秀山岛湿地已经建立了湿地自然保护区,湿地生态系统得到了较好的发展。     

Salt marsh harvest mouse demography and habitat use in the Suisun Marsh,California

We undertook a 2-year (2002–2004) mark–recapture study to investigate demographic performance and habitat use of salt marsh harvest mice (Reithrodontomys raviventris halicoetes) in the Suisun Marsh. We examined the effects of different wetland types and microhabitats on 3 demographic variables: density, reproductive potential, and persistence. Our results indicate that microhabitats dominated by mixed vegetation or pickleweed (Salicornia spp.) supported similar salt marsh harvest mouse densities, reproductive potential, and persistence throughout much of the year, whereas few salt marsh harvest mice inhabited upland grass-dominated microhabitats. We found that densities were higher in diked wetlands, whereas post-winter persistence was higher in tidal wetlands, and reproductive potential did not differ statistically between wetland types. Our results emphasize the importance of mixed vegetation for providing adequate salt marsh harvest mouse habitat and suggest that, despite their physiognomic and hydrological differences, both diked and tidal wetlands support salt marsh harvest mouse populations by promoting different demographic attributes. We recommend that habitat management, restoration, and enhancement efforts include areas containing mixed vegetation in addition to pickleweed in both diked and tidal wetlands. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Net ecosystem carbon exchange and the greenhouse gas balance of tidal marshes along an estuarine salinity gradient

Tidal wetlands are productive ecosystems with the capacity to sequester large amounts of carbon (C), but we know relatively little about the impact of climate change on wetland C cycling in lower salinity (oligohaline and tidal freshwater) coastal marshes. In this study we assessed plant production, C cycling and sequestration, and microbial organic matter mineralization at tidal freshwater, oligohaline, and salt marsh sites along the salinity gradient in the Delaware River Estuary over four years. We measured aboveground plant biomass, carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄) exchange between the marsh and atmosphere, microbial sulfate reduction and methanogenesis in marsh soils, soil biogeochemistry, and C sequestration with radiodating of soils. A simple model was constructed to estimate monthly and annually integrated rates of gross ecosystem production (GEP), ecosystem respiration (ER) to carbon dioxide ( \( {\text{ER}}_{{{\text{CO}}_{2} }} \) ) or methane ( \( {\text{ER}}_{{{\text{CH}}_{4} }} \) ), net ecosystem production (NEP), the contribution of sulfate reduction and methanogenesis to ER, and the greenhouse gas (GHG) source or sink status of the wetland for 2 years (2007 and 2008). All three marsh types were highly productive but evidenced different patterns of C sequestration and GHG source/sink status. The contribution of sulfate reduction to total ER increased along the salinity gradient from tidal freshwater to salt marsh. The Spartina alterniflora dominated salt marsh was a C sink as indicated by both NEP (~140 g C m^?2 year^?1) and ²¹⁰Pb radiodating (336 g C m^?2 year^?1), a minor sink for atmospheric CH₄, and a GHG sink (~620 g CO_2-eq m^?2 year^?1). The tidal freshwater marsh was a source of CH₄ to the atmosphere (~22 g C–CH₄ m^?2 year^?1). There were large interannual differences in plant production and therefore C and GHG source/sink status at the tidal freshwater marsh, though ²¹⁰Pb radiodating indicated modest C accretion (110 g C m^?2 year^?1). The oligohaline marsh site experienced seasonal saltwater intrusion in the late summer and fall (up to 10 mS cm^?1) and the Zizania aquatica monoculture at this site responded with sharp declines in biomass and GEP in late summer. Salinity intrusion was also linked to large effluxes of CH₄ at the oligohaline site (>80 g C–CH₄ m^?2 year^?1), making this site a significant GHG source (>2,000 g CO_2-eq m^?2 year^?1). The oligohaline site did not accumulate C over the 2 year study period, though ²¹⁰Pb dating indicated long term C accumulation (250 g C m^?2 year^?1), suggesting seasonal salt-water intrusion can significantly alter C cycling and GHG exchange dynamics in tidal marsh ecosystems.     

Analysis of multi-decadal wetland changes,and cumulative impact of multiple storms 1984 to 2017

Land-cover classification analysis using Landsat satellite imagery acquired between 1984 and 2017 quantified short- (post-Hurricane Sandy) and long-term wetland-change trends along the Maryland and Virginia coasts between Metompkin Bay, VA and Ocean City, MD. Although there are limited options for upland migration of wetlands in the study area, regression analysis showed that wetland area increased slightly between 1984 and 2011, indicating that marsh aggradation rates were sufficient to maintain wetland elevation relative to mean sea level. Following Hurricane Irene (August 2011), the Halloween Nor’Easter (October 2011), and Hurricane Sandy (October 2012), wetland area decreased by more than 7 km² compared with average pre-storm extents. We assume that Hurricane Sandy had the greatest impact due to the size and intensity of the storm. However, the cumulative effects of multiple storms within a short time period likely contributed to the greater observed losses in coastal wetlands relative to earlier periods. Five years after Hurricane Sandy, wetland area had not significantly recovered, but more time may be necessary to assess if the observed wetland losses will persist or if new growth within flooded marsh areas will be sufficient for the wetlands to recover to pre-storm extents. Comparisons of long-term and storm-driven wetland changes can lead to improved accuracy of habitat vulnerability models and greater understanding of potential impacts of future storms and SLR to coastal wetlands.     

Salt marsh productivity with natural and altered tidal circulation

Summary The effects of altered tidal circulation on southern California salt marshes are investigated by comparing a well-flushed wetland and two modified wetlands which have reduced tidal flow. The Tijuana Estuary had continuous exchange of seawater but relatively low net aerial primary productivity (0.4–1.0 kg m^-2yr^-1) of vascular plants. Low productivity (0.6 kg m^-2yr^-1) was also found in the Flood Control Channel of the San Diego River, where tidal exchange was restricted to flow through a riprap dike. High productivity (1.2–2.9 kg m^-2yr^-1) in Los Penasquitos Lagoon was attributed to the influences of freshwater impounded behind a sand bar which blocked the mouth of the lagoon during much of the study period.It is hypothesized that elimination of tidal flow during the growing season increased primary productivity of vascular plants because freshwater runoff decreased soil salinity and because nutrients were retained within the marsh. However, we predict that sand bar obstruction can decrease productivity if below-average rainfall leads to hypersalinity of closed lagoons. Comprehensive evaluation of the effects of altered tidal circulation requires longterm study and examination of the total ecosystem.     

Sea level rise and marsh surface elevation change in the Meadowlands of New Jersey

The marshlands of the Meadowlands of New Jersey are valuable wetland ecosystems in a highly developed urban area and provide a natural habitat to more than 285 species of birds, a great variety of fishes, and many other living organisms. It is not clear if these ecosystems and their associated ecological services will persist under conditions of accelerated sea level rise (SLR), in geography where space for a landward retreat of marshlands is limited. In this study, we used the deep rod surface elevation table method and feldspar marker horizons to measure surface elevation change and vertical accretion rate in five marshland sites over 11 years. The controlling parameters of the accretion rate were explored. The results showed that sediments were not limited for vertical accretion. About 16% of the total suspended solids reaching the marsh via the tide was trapped by the marsh surface. Hydraulic duty alone cannot explain differences in deposition rates between low and high marsh. Precipitation, snow accumulation, and sea surge from storms were the main drivers influencing subsidence. The overall subsidence rate was 1.5?±?1.3 mm/year. All sites combined showed increases in surface elevation of 4.0?±?0.7 mm/year. This rate of increase is not enough to keep up with the 8 mm/year SLR prediction. There is a 50% chance that in 80 years, 7% of current marshlands will be underwater or will convert to unvegetated mudflats, and most high marsh habitats will disappear.