Relative importance of long‐term changes in climate and land‐use on the phenology and abundance of legume crop specialist and generalist aphids

Abstract Insect populations are prone to respond to global changes through shifts in phenology, distribution and abundance. However, global changes cover several factors such as climate and land-use, the relative importance of these being largely unknown. Here, we aim at disentangling the effects of climate, land-use, and geographical drivers on aphid abundance and phenology in France, at a regional scale and over the last 40 years. We used aerial data obtained from suction traps between 1978 and 2015 on five aphid species varying in their degree of specialization to legumes, along with climate, legume crop area and geographical data. Effects of environmental and geographical variables on aphid annual abundance and spring migration dates were analyzed using generalized linear mixed models. We found that within the last four decades, aphids have advanced their spring migration by a month, mostly due to the increase in temperature early in the year, and their abundance decreased by half on average, presumably in response to a combination of factors. The influence of legume crop area decreased with the degree of specialization of the aphid species to such crops. The effect of geographical variation was high even when controlling for environmental variables, suggesting that many other spatially structured processes act on aphid population characteristics. Multifactorial analyses helped to partition the effects of different global change drivers. Climate and land-use changes have strong effects on aphid populations, with important implications for future agriculture. Additionally, trait-based response variation could have major consequences at the community scale.     

Effects of temperature on aphid phenology

Daily samples between 1964 and 1991 from suction traps throughout Great Britain were used to study the migration phenologies of five aphid species: Brachycaudus helichrysi, Elatobium abietinum, Metopolophium dirhodum, Myzus persicae and Sitobion avenae, and their relationship with temperature. Regression relationships have been established between characteristics of aphid phenology and temperature, latitude and longitude for each species. There were differences between species in the period for which temperature was most strongly associated with aphid phenology. The study indicates that temperature, especially winter temperature, is the dominant factor affecting aphid phenology, for all five species. A 1 °C increase in average winter temperature advanced the migration phenology by 4–19 days depending on species. Effects of temperature on the aphid phenology are similar between holocyclic and anholocyclic species, unlike the effects of temperature on date of first flight record which have been previously shown to be important only in anholocyclic species.     

Geographical location, climate and land use influences on the phenology and numbers of the aphid, Myzus persicae, in Europe

Aim The purpose of this study was to improve understanding of the relationship between the spatial patterns of an important insect pest, the aphid Myzus persicae, and aspects of its environment. The main objectives were to determine the predominant geographical, climatic and land use factors that are linked with the aphid's distribution, to quantify their role in determining that distribution, including their interacting effects and to explore the ability of artificial neural networks (ANNs) to provide predictive models. Location The study focused on four spatial scales to account for the aphid data base characteristics and available land use data sets: Europe; a broad zone over Europe covering Belgium, Denmark, France, Ireland, Italy, The Netherlands, Scotland, Sweden and Wales (Regio data base coverage); North‐West Europe (i.e. Belgium, France and the United Kingdom); and England with Wales. Methods Multiple linear regression (MLR) was used to identify the variables in the Geographic location, Climate and Land use groups, that explained significant proportions of the variance in M. persicae total annual numbers and Julian date of first capture. A variance partitioning procedure was used to measure the fraction of the variation that can be explained by each environmental factor and of shared variation between the different factors. Finally, ANNs were employed as an alternative modelling approach for the two largest study areas, i.e. Europe and the Regio data base coverage, to determine whether the relationship between aphid and environmental variables was better described by more complex functions as well as their ability to generalize to new data. Results Land use variables are shown to play a significant role in explaining aphid numbers. The area of agricultural crops, in particular oilseed rape, is positively correlated with M. persicae annual numbers. Among the climatic variables, rainfall is negatively correlated with aphid numbers and temperature is positively correlated. The geographical components also explain a significant part of aphid annual numbers. However, the variance partitioning procedure indicates that while each group has an effect, none is dominant. Aphid first capture is mainly explained by climate where rainfall tends to delay migration and warmer conditions tend to advance it. Climate accounts for the greatest part of the variance when considered separately from the other factors. The geographical and land use components also have a significant effect on first capture at each scale, but their direct contribution is negligible. The ability of the ANN models to generalize to new total numbers and phenological data compared with MLR models was less for Europe (9 and 6% increase in the variance accounted for, respectively) than for the Regio data coverage where an increase of 44% in the variance accounted for was observed. Main conclusions This research supports the hypothesis that climate, land use and geographical location play a role in determining patterns of aphid annual numbers and phenology. The ability of ANN models to predict aphid distribution is improved by the inclusion of temporal land use data. However, identification of the processes involved in such relationships is difficult due to numerous interactions between the environmental factors.     

Seasonal Phenology and Species Composition of the Aphid Fauna in a Northern Crop Production Area

Background

The species diversity of aphids and seasonal timing of their flight activity can have significant impacts on crop production, as aphid species differ in their ability to transmit plant viruses and flight timing affects virus epidemiology. The aim of the study was to characterise the species composition and phenology of aphid fauna in Finland in one of the northernmost intensive crop production areas of the world (latitude 64°).

Methodology/Principal Findings

Flight activity was monitored in four growing seasons (2007–010) using yellow pan traps (YPTs) placed in 4–8 seed potato fields and a Rothamsted suction trap. A total of 58,528 winged aphids were obtained, identified to 83 taxa based on morphology, and 34 species were additionally characterised by DNA barcoding. Seasonal flight activity patterns analysed based on YPT catch fell into three main phenology clusters. Monoecious taxa showed early or middle-season flight activity and belonged to species living on shrubs/trees or herbaceous plants, respectively. Heteroecious taxa occurred over the entire potato growing season (ca. 90 days). Abundance of aphids followed a clear 3-year cycle based on suction trap data covering a decade. Rhopalosiphum padi occurring at the end of the potato growing season was the most abundant species. The flight activity of Aphis fabae, the main vector of Potato virus Y in the region, and Aphis gossypii peaked in the beginning of potato growing season.

Conclusions/Significance

Detailed information was obtained on phenology of a large number aphid species, of which many are agriculturally important pests acting as vectors of plant viruses. Aphis gossypii is known as a pest in greenhouses, but our study shows that it occurs also in the field, even far in the north. The novel information on aphid phenology and ecology has wide implications for prospective pest management, particularly in light of climate change.     

Leaf phenology in 22 North American tree species during the 21st century

Recent shifts in phenology are the best documented biological response to current anthropogenic climate change, yet remain poorly understood from a functional point of view. Prevailing analyses are phenomenological and approximate, only correlating temperature records to imprecise records of phenological events. To advance our understanding of phenological responses to climate change, we developed, calibrated, and validated process-based models of leaf unfolding for 22 North American tree species. Using daily meteorological data predicted by two scenarios (A2: +3.2 °C and B2: +1 °C) from the HadCM3 GCM, we predicted and compared range-wide shifts of leaf unfolding in the 20th and 21st centuries for each species. Model predictions suggest that climate change will affect leaf phenology in almost all species studied, with an average advancement during the 21st century of 5.0 days in the A2 scenario and 9.2 days in the B2 scenario. Our model also suggests that lack of sufficient chilling temperatures to break bud dormancy will decrease the rate of advancement in leaf unfolding date during the 21st century for many species. Some temperate species may even have years with abnormal budburst due to insufficient chilling. Species fell into two groups based on their sensitivity to climate change: (1) species that consistently had a greater advance in their leaf unfolding date with increasing latitude and (2) species in which the advance in leaf unfolding differed from the center to the northern vs. southern margins of their range. At the interspecific level, we predicted that early-leafing species tended to show a greater advance in leaf unfolding date than late-leafing species; and that species with larger ranges tend to show stronger phenological changes. These predicted changes in phenology have significant implications for the frost susceptibility of species, their interspecific relationships, and their distributional shifts.     

Shifts in frog size and phenology: Testing predictions of climate change on a widespread anuran using data from prior to rapid climate warming

Changes in body size and breeding phenology have been identified as two major ecological consequences of climate change, yet it remains unclear whether climate acts directly or indirectly on these variables. To better understand the relationship between climate and ecological changes, it is necessary to determine environmental predictors of both size and phenology using data from prior to the onset of rapid climate warming, and then to examine spatially explicit changes in climate, size, and phenology, not just general spatial and temporal trends. We used 100 years of natural history collection data for the wood frog, Lithobates sylvaticus with a range >9 million km², and spatially explicit environmental data to determine the best predictors of size and phenology prior to rapid climate warming (1901–1960). We then tested how closely size and phenology changes predicted by those environmental variables reflected actual changes from 1961 to 2000. Size, phenology, and climate all changed as expected (smaller, earlier, and warmer, respectively) at broad spatial scales across the entire study range. However, while spatially explicit changes in climate variables accurately predicted changes in phenology, they did not accurately predict size changes during recent climate change (1961–2000), contrary to expectations from numerous recent studies. Our results suggest that changes in climate are directly linked to observed phenological shifts. However, the mechanisms driving observed body size changes are yet to be determined, given the less straightforward relationship between size and climate factors examined in this study. We recommend that caution be used in “space‐for‐time” studies where measures of a species’ traits at lower latitudes or elevations are considered representative of those under future projected climate conditions. Future studies should aim to determine mechanisms driving trends in phenology and body size, as well as the impact of climate on population density, which may influence body size.     

Increased variance in temperature and lag effects alter phenological responses to rapid warming in a subarctic plant community

Summer temperature on the Cape Churchill Peninsula (Manitoba, Canada) has increased rapidly over the past 75 years, and flowering phenology of the plant community is advanced in years with warmer temperatures (higher cumulative growing degree days). Despite this, there has been no overall shift in flowering phenology over this period. However, climate change has also resulted in increased interannual variation in temperature; if relationships between phenology and temperature are not linear, an increase in temperature variance may interact with an increase in the mean to alter how community phenology changes over time. In our system, the relationship between phenology and temperature was log‐linear, resulting in a steeper slope at the cold end of the temperature spectrum than at the warm end. Because below‐average temperatures had a greater impact on phenology than above‐average temperatures, the long‐term advance in phenology was reduced. In addition, flowering phenology in a given year was delayed if summer temperatures were high the previous year or 2 years earlier (lag effects), further reducing the expected advance over time. Phenology of early‐flowering plants was negatively affected only by temperatures in the previous year, and that of late‐flowering plants primarily by temperatures 2 years earlier. Subarctic plants develop leaf primordia one or more years prior to flowering (preformation); these results suggest that temperature affects the development of flower primordia during this preformation period. Together, increased variance in temperature and lag effects interacted with a changing mean to reduce the expected phenological advance by 94%, a magnitude large enough to account for our inability to detect a significant advance over time. We conclude that changes in temperature variability and lag effects can alter trends in plant responses to a warming climate and that predictions for changes in plant phenology under future warming scenarios should incorporate such effects.     

南亚热带阔叶林展叶物候及其种内种间差异探讨

植物的展叶物候与植物的生长和生存密切相关,但未见有定性的研究植物展叶物候的种间和种内差异与验证亚热带常绿阔叶林植物展叶物候系统发育关系的报道。为了更好地理解南亚热带常绿阔叶林物种共存机制和预测不同物种对气候变化的响应,该研究于2013年1月至2014年12月期间,在中国科学院华南植物园鼎湖山自然保护区内对44个树种的展叶物候进行了连续观测,利用变异系数定性分析了气候因子、系统发育关系对展叶始期及其种内和种间差异和展叶期的影响。结果表明:鼎湖山自然保护区植物展叶始期主要集中在3-5月,植物展叶物候受气候因子影响不显著;不同物种的展叶物候种内变异差别较大,其中种内差异最大的是红皮紫棱(Craibiodendron kwangtungense)(变异系数为0.74),最小的是广东润楠(Machilus kwangtungensis)(变异系数为0.09);基于APGⅢ物种数据库构建谱系树,发现植物间的系统发育关系对展叶物候无显著影响,即亲缘关系近的物种,展叶期并不相似。该研究结果对于理解生态系统过程,如碳循环、物质能量流动,以及展叶物候对气候变化的适应性具有重要意义。     

北京地区木本春季物候特征与生物学特性的关系

植物物候是植物生活史中的重要性状,也是指示气候与自然环境变化的重要指标,现已成为全球变化领域的研究热点之一。传统物候研究多假设物候由气候因素决定,如气温、降水、光照等,并主要从植物物候的年际变化角度探讨了气候因素对物候特征的影响。然而,不同物种的物候存在较大差异表明植物物候还与自身生物学特性（如系统发育和功能性状）有关,但植物生物学特性如何影响植物物候仍缺乏深入研究。基于北京地区44种木本植物1965-2018年的展叶始期和开花始期观测资料,以展叶始期和开花始期的3类物候特征（平均物候期、物候对温度的响应敏感度和物候期的积温需求）为例,探究植物物候特征与系统发育和功能性状的关系。首先,利用系统发育信号Blomberg’s K和进化模型检验植物物候特征是否具有系统发育保守性,并通过系统发育信号表征曲线直观表达植物物候特征的进化模式;之后,利用广义估计方程分析植物生活型、传粉型与物候特征的关系,以揭示不同植物的资源利用方式及生存策略的差异。研究发现：（1）除展叶始期的温度敏感度外,其余物候特征的进化均受随机遗传漂变和自然选择力的共同作用,可推断物候特征具有系统发育保守性,即亲缘关系越近的物种物候特征越相似。（2）开花始期的系统发育信号强度比展叶始期更大,表明繁殖物候的系统发育可能比生长物候更保守。（3）植物展叶始期及其积温需求与生活型密切相关。灌木比乔木的展叶时间早、积温需求少。植物开花始期与传粉型相关,风媒植物开花显著早于虫媒植物。研究成果有助于深入理解物候变化的生物学机制,对于丰富物候学的理论研究有重要意义,同时对植物保护也具有重要的指导价值。     

Linking flowering and reproductive allocation in response to nitrogen addition in an alpine meadow

Aims Plants can change in phenology and biomass allocation in response to environmental change. It has been demonstrated that nitrogen is the most limiting resource for plants in many terrestrial ecosystems. Previous studies have usually focused on either flowering phenology or biomass allocation of plants in response to nitrogen addition; however, attempts to link flowering phenology and biomass allocation are still rare. In this study, we tested the effects of nitrogen addition on both flowering phenology and reproductive allocation in 34 common species. We also examined the potential linkage between flowering time and reproductive allocation in response to nitrogen addition.Methods We conducted a 3-year nitrogen addition experiment in Tibetan alpine meadow. We measured first flowering date and the reproductive allocation for 34 common plant species in control, low and high nitrogen added plots, respectively. One-way analysis of variance was used to examine differences of first flowering date and reproductive allocation among treatments. The relationships between the change in species first flowering date and change in reproductive allocation in response to nitrogen addition were examined by calculating Pearson correlation coefficients.Important findings For most species, both first flowering date and reproductive allocation significantly responded to nitrogen addition. Nitrogen addition significantly delayed the first flowering date and reduced the reproductive allocation for all graminoid species, but accelerated flowering and increased reproductive allocation for most forb species. We found that changes in first flowering date significantly negatively correlated with the changes in reproductive allocation over species in response to nitrogen, which indicated a positive relationship between flowering response and plant performance in reproductive allocation. Species that advanced their flowering time with nitrogen addition increased their reproductive allocation, whereas those that delayed flowering time tended to decline in reproductive allocation with nitrogen addition. Our results suggest that species-specific switch from vegetative growth to reproductive growth could influence species performance.     

Phenology and productivity in a montane bird assemblage: Trends and responses to elevation and climate variation

Climate variation has been linked to historical and predicted future distributions and dynamics of wildlife populations. However, demographic mechanisms underlying these changes remain poorly understood. Here, we assessed variation and trends in climate (annual snowfall and spring temperature anomalies) and avian demographic variables from mist‐netting data (breeding phenology and productivity) at six sites along an elevation gradient spanning the montane zone of Yosemite National Park between 1993 and 2017. We implemented multi‐species hierarchical models to relate demographic responses to elevation and climate covariates. Annual variation in climate and avian demographic variables was high. Snowfall declined (10 mm/year at the highest site, 2 mm at the lowest site), while spring temperature increased (0.045°C/year) over the study period. Breeding phenology (mean first capture date of juvenile birds) advanced by 0.2 day/year (5 days); and productivity (probability of capturing a juvenile bird) increased by 0.8%/year. Breeding phenology was 12 days earlier at the lowest compared to highest site, 18 days earlier in years with lowest compared to highest snowfall anomalies, and 6 d earlier in relatively warm springs (after controlling for snowfall effects). Productivity was positively related to elevation. However, elevation–productivity responses varied among species; species with higher productivity at higher compared to lower elevations tended to be species with documented range retractions during the past century. Productivity tended to be negatively related to snowfall and was positively related to spring temperature. Overall, our results suggest that birds have tracked the variable climatic conditions in this system and have benefited from a trend toward warmer, drier springs. However, we caution that continued warming and multi‐year drought or extreme weather years may alter these relationships in the future. Multi‐species demographic modeling, such as implemented here, can provide an important tool for guiding conservation of species assemblages under global change.     

Little effect of climate change on body size of herbivorous beetles

Ongoing climate change affects various aspects of an animal's life, with important effects on distribution range and phenology. The relationship between global warming and body size changes in mammals and birds has been widely studied, with most findings indicating a decline in body size over time. Nevertheless, little data exist on similar size change patterns of invertebrates in general and insects in particular, and it is unclear whether insects should decrease in size or not with climate warming. We measured over 4000 beetle specimens, belonging to 29 beetle species in 8 families, collected in Israel during the last 100 years. The sampled species are all herbivorous. We examined whether beetle body size had changed over the years, while also investigating the relationships between body size and annual temperature, precipitation, net primary productivity (NPP) at the collection site and collection month. None of the environmental variables, including the collection year, was correlated with the size of most of the studied beetle species, while there were strong interactions of all variables with species. Our results, though mostly negative, suggest that the effect of climate change on insect body size is species‐specific and by no means a general macro‐ecological rule. They also suggest that the intrapopulation variance in body size of insects collected as adults in the field is large enough to conceal intersite environmental effects on body size, such as the effect of temperature and NPP.     

Contrasting effects of warming and increased snowfall on Arctic tundra plant phenology over the past two decades

Recent changes in climate have led to significant shifts in phenology, with many studies demonstrating advanced phenology in response to warming temperatures. The rate of temperature change is especially high in the Arctic, but this is also where we have relatively little data on phenological changes and the processes driving these changes. In order to understand how Arctic plant species are likely to respond to future changes in climate, we monitored flowering phenology in response to both experimental and ambient warming for four widespread species in two habitat types over 21 years. We additionally used long‐term environmental records to disentangle the effects of temperature increase and changes in snowmelt date on phenological patterns. While flowering occurred earlier in response to experimental warming, plants in unmanipulated plots showed no change or a delay in flowering over the 21‐year period, despite more than 1 °C of ambient warming during that time. This counterintuitive result was likely due to significantly delayed snowmelt over the study period (0.05–0.2 days/yr) due to increased winter snowfall. The timing of snowmelt was a strong driver of flowering phenology for all species – especially for early‐flowering species – while spring temperature was significantly related to flowering time only for later‐flowering species. Despite significantly delayed flowering phenology, the timing of seed maturation showed no significant change over time, suggesting that warmer temperatures may promote more rapid seed development. The results of this study highlight the importance of understanding the specific environmental cues that drive species’ phenological responses as well as the complex interactions between temperature and precipitation when forecasting phenology over the coming decades. As demonstrated here, the effects of altered snowmelt patterns can counter the effects of warmer temperatures, even to the point of generating phenological responses opposite to those predicted by warming alone.     

Fruiting phenology is linked to rainfall variability in a tropical rain forest

As the influence of climate change on tropical forests becomes apparent, more studies are needed to understand how changes in climatic variables such as rainfall are likely to affect tree phenology. Using a twelve‐year dataset (2005–2016), we studied the impact of seasonal rainfall patterns on the fruiting phenology of 69 tree species in the rain forest of southeastern Madagascar. We found that average annual rainfall in this region has increased by >800 mm (23%) during this period relative to that recorded for the previous 40 years and was highly variable both within and between years. Higher monthly measures of fruiting richness and the intensity of fruiting in our sample community were associated with significantly higher levels of rainfall. We also found that less rainfall during the dry season, but not the wet season, was associated with a significant shift toward later timing of peak richness and peak intensity of fruiting in the subsequent 12 months; however, this pattern was driven primarily by an extreme drought event that occurred during the study period. Longer time scales of phenology data are needed to see whether this pattern is consistent. Madagascar is expected to experience more extremes in rainfall and drought with increasing climate change. Thus, the linkages between variable precipitation and the fruiting phenology of forest trees will have important consequences for understanding plant reproduction and the ability of Madagascar's wildlife to cope with a changing climate.     

Phenological responses in a sycamore–aphid–parasitoid system and consequences for aphid population dynamics: A 20 year case study

Species interactions have a spatiotemporal component driven by environmental cues, which if altered by climate change can drive shifts in community dynamics. There is insufficient understanding of the precise time windows during which inter‐annual variation in weather drives phenological shifts and the consequences for mismatches between interacting species and resultant population dynamics—particularly for insects. We use a 20 year study on a tri‐trophic system: sycamore Acer pseudoplatanus, two associated aphid species Drepanosiphum platanoidis and Periphyllus testudinaceus and their hymenopteran parasitoids. Using a sliding window approach, we assess climatic drivers of phenology in all three trophic levels. We quantify the magnitude of resultant trophic mismatches between aphids and their plant hosts and parasitoids, and then model the impacts of these mismatches, direct weather effects and density dependence on local‐scale aphid population dynamics. Warmer temperatures in mid‐March to late‐April were associated with advanced sycamore budburst, parasitoid attack and (marginally) D. platanoidis emergence. The precise time window during which spring weather advances phenology varies considerably across each species. Crucially, warmer temperatures in late winter delayed the emergence of both aphid species. Seasonal variation in warming rates thus generates marked shifts in the relative timing of spring events across trophic levels and mismatches in the phenology of interacting species. Despite this, we found no evidence that aphid population growth rates were adversely impacted by the magnitude of mismatch with their host plants or parasitoids, or direct impacts of temperature and precipitation. Strong density dependence effects occurred in both aphid species and probably buffered populations, through density‐dependent compensation, from adverse impacts of the marked inter‐annual climatic variation that occurred during the study period. These findings explain the resilience of aphid populations to climate change and uncover a key mechanism, warmer winter temperatures delaying insect phenology, by which climate change drives asynchronous shifts between interacting species.     

Best environmental predictors of breeding phenology differ with elevation in a common woodland bird species

Temperatures in mountain areas are increasing at a higher rate than the Northern Hemisphere land average, but how fauna may respond, in particular in terms of phenology, remains poorly understood. The aim of this study was to assess how elevation could modify the relationships between climate variability (air temperature and snow melt‐out date), the timing of plant phenology and egg‐laying date of the coal tit (Periparus ater). We collected 9 years (2011–2019) of data on egg‐laying date, spring air temperature, snow melt‐out date, and larch budburst date at two elevations (~1,300 m and ~1,900 m asl) on a slope located in the Mont‐Blanc Massif in the French Alps. We found that at low elevation, larch budburst date had a direct influence on egg‐laying date, while at high‐altitude snow melt‐out date was the limiting factor. At both elevations, air temperature had a similar effect on egg‐laying date, but was a poorer predictor than larch budburst or snowmelt date. Our results shed light on proximate drivers of breeding phenology responses to interannual climate variability in mountain areas and suggest that factors directly influencing species phenology vary at different elevations. Predicting the future responses of species in a climate change context will require testing the transferability of models and accounting for nonstationary relationships between environmental predictors and the timing of phenological events.     

Predicting animal performance through climatic and plant phenology variables: The case of an omnivore hibernating species in Finland

Annual variation in the environment is expected to influence individual performance, e.g. measured as body condition, such as body mass or fat deposition, through its direct or indirect effects on food abundance and availability. Such environmental variation is traditionally measured by climatic observation, but recently, measures of environmental phenology obtained from satellite images have been successfully used. We examined the performance of climatic and plant phenology variables in explaining body condition of an invasive omnivore species: the raccoon dog Nyctereutes procyonoides. We collected data on fat deposition of juveniles in southern Finland from the end of June to the beginning of November. A four-parametric logistic model was fitted separately for each province to the data by non-linear regression procedure and the residuals were compared to the expected average as measure of individual performance. These values were then analysed with respect to the environmental variables. Climatic variables describing spring conditions performed better than plant phenology variables in explaining the variation in fat deposition. Harsh spring conditions negatively affected the amount of fat deposed during the growing season. Plant phenology variables, effective in explaining life history traits in herbivores, might not reflect variation in food abundance and quality for omnivore species. We propose that in Europe raccoon dogs will benefit from climate warming, because of a longer growing season, but increased spring precipitation in the form of snow at higher latitudes might compensate for the effect of greater primary productivity and outline the border of their expansion towards harsher environments.     

Continental-scale patterns of Cecropia reproductive phenology: evidence from herbarium specimens

Plant phenology is concerned with the timing of recurring biological events. Though phenology has traditionally been studied using intensive surveys of a local flora, results from such surveys are difficult to generalize to broader spatial scales. In this study, contrastingly, we assembled a continental-scale dataset of herbarium specimens for the emblematic genus of Neotropical pioneer trees, Cecropia, and applied Fourier spectral and cospectral analyses to investigate the reproductive phenology of 35 species. We detected significant annual, sub-annual and continuous patterns, and discuss the variation in patterns within and among climatic regions. Although previous studies have suggested that pioneer species generally produce flowers continually throughout the year, we found that at least one third of Cecropia species are characterized by clear annual flowering behaviour. We further investigated the relationships between phenology and climate seasonality, showing strong associations between phenology and seasonal variations in precipitation and temperature. We also verified our results against field survey data gathered from the literature. Our findings indicate that herbarium material is a reliable resource for use in the investigation of large-scale patterns in plant phenology, offering a promising complement to local intensive field studies.     

Advancing breeding phenology in response to environmental change in a wild red deer population

Most evidence for advances in phenology of in response to recent climate warming in wild vertebrate populations has come from long‐term studies of birds. Few studies have either documented phenological advances or tested their climatic causes and demographic consequences in wild mammal systems. Using a long‐term study of red deer on the Isle of Rum, Scotland, we present evidence of significant temporal trends in six phenological traits: oestrus date and parturition date in females, and antler cast date, antler clean date, rut start date and rut end date in males. These traits advanced by between 5 and 12 days across a 28‐year study period. Local climate measures associated with plant growth in spring and summer (growing degree days) increased significantly over time and explained a significant amount of variation in all six phenological traits, largely accounting for temporal advances observed in some of the traits. However, there was no evidence for temporal changes in key female reproductive performance traits (offspring birth weight and offspring survival) in this population, despite significant relationships between these traits and female phenology. In males, average antler weights increased over time presumably as a result of improved resource availability and physiological condition through spring and summer. There was no evidence for any temporal change in average male annual breeding success, as might be expected if the timing of male rutting behaviour was failing to track advances in the timing of oestrus in females. Our results provide rare evidence linking phenological advances to climate warming in a wild mammal and highlight the potential complexity of relationships between climate warming, phenology and demography in wild vertebrates.     

Changes in snowmelt date and summer precipitation affect the flowering phenology of Erythronium grandiflorum (glacier lily; Liliaceae)

? Premise of the study: Climate change has affected species worldwide, including alterations in phenology, migration patterns, distribution, and survival. Because Erythronium grandiflorum is an early-season bloomer, alterations in its phenology may have serious implications for many North American Rocky Mountain communities, including changes in resource availability for pollinators and herbivores. ? Methods: We investigated whether changes in the snowmelt date, summer temperature, and summer precipitation have altered the timing and abundance of flowering in E. grandiflorum by collecting long-term data on floral abundance from 1975-2008 in a series of 2 × 2 m plots at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL) in Gothic, Colorado in the United States. ? Key results: Snowmelt date and mean summer temperature were negatively correlated. Over the 30-yr study, the snowmelt date advanced by 4.14 d/decade, and mean summer temperature increased by 0.38°C/decade. Summer precipitation was variable, showing no change. The first, peak, and last flowering dates of E. grandiflorum advanced an average of 3.2 d/decade. Furthermore, earlier snowmelt and greater summer precipitation in the previous year led to earlier flowering in E. grandiflorum. There was no change in flowering abundance in this species, indicating it may be controlled by a complex set of abiotic and biotic variables. ? Conclusions: Our study indicates that snowmelt is arriving earlier at the RMBL, which has caused earlier flowering in E. grandiflorum. Because alterations in phenology can disrupt important ecological interactions, information on potential phenological shifts in species that interact with E. grandiflorum is essential in determining the net effect of climate-driven alterations in phenology.