The Predicted Influence of Climate Change on Lesser Prairie-Chicken Reproductive Parameters

The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001–2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter’s linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Niña events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival.     

Age and clutch size variation in Dusky Flycatcher nest survival

Examination of spatial and temporal factors that influence nest survival can provide insight into habitat selection, reproductive decisions (e.g., clutch size), population dynamics, and conservation requirements for species. We used nest survival data for the Dusky Flycatcher Empidonax oberholseri to examine several factors that may influence nesting success. Our prediction was that the number of nest initiations would be positively associated with period nest survival. We used a model selection framework and found that nesting success was a function of clutch size and a cubic effect of age. Clutches with one, two, three, and four eggs had period survival rates of 0, 0.05, 0.33, and 0.49, respectively. Daily survival rates decreased from the onset of egg-laying and increased during the later stages of incubation before remaining relatively constant through the later portions of the nestling stage. Model-selection criterion provided support for a date effect on daily survival (i.e., daily nest survival declined across the nesting season) although the 95% confidence interval for the estimate included zero. We found that the majority of nest initiations occurred early in the nest season and declined across the season as period nest survival declined. Our prediction concerning nest survival was partially supported. In addition, we found substantial positive associations between clutch size and nest survival. While low daily survival rates for clutches with one or two eggs suggested that individuals may have reduced reproductive effort in response to nest predation risk, we did not find strong evidence that individuals reduced their clutch sizes in subsequent nest attempts. Alternative predictions, including the preferential settlement of higher quality individuals (e.g., those with the ability to lay full clutches to replace depredated nests) into high-quality habitat and differences in behavior patterns (e.g., number of visits to provision nestlings), may provide more consistent explanations for these patterns.     

Robust assessment of associations between weather and eastern wild turkey nest success

Temperature and precipitation have been identified as factors that potentially influence eastern wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) reproduction, but robust analyses testing the relationship between weather parameters and turkey nest success are lacking. Therefore, we assessed how weather influenced turkey daily nest survival using 8 years of data collected from 715 nests across the southeastern United States. We also conducted exploratory analyses investigating if weather conditions during or prior to nesting best predicted nest success. We then assessed the possible implications of climate change through 2041–2060 for future eastern wild turkey daily nest survival and nest success for variables determined significant in analyses. During incubation, positive anomalies of minimum daily temperature were associated with greater daily nest survival. Precipitation during nesting was not a good predictor of daily nest survival. Exploratory analyses unexpectedly indicated that weather conditions in January prior to incubation were more important to nest success than weather conditions during incubation. In January, negative anomalies of minimum temperature and greater average daily precipitation were associated with greater nest success. Projections of future nest success or daily nest survival based on these relationships with the predictive covariates, and informed by climate models, suggest that nest success may increase as January precipitation increases and that daily nest survival may increase as temperature during incubation increases. These positive associations could be offset by a negative association between nest success and the expected increases in January minimum average temperature. Additional research is needed to investigate causes of these relationships and assess the implications of climate change for eastern wild turkey poult survival.     

Intraseasonal patterns in shorebird nest survival are related to nest age and defence behaviour

Nest survival may vary throughout the breeding season for many bird species, and the nature of this temporal variation can reveal the links between birds, their predators, and other components of the ecosystem. We used program Mark to model patterns in nest survival within the breeding season for shorebirds nesting on arctic tundra. From 2000 to 2007, we monitored 521 nests of five shorebird species and found strong evidence for variation in nest survival within a nesting season. Daily nest survival was lowest in the mid-season in 5 of 8 years, but the timing and magnitude of the lows varied. We found no evidence that this quadratic time effect was driven by seasonal changes in weather or the abundance of predators. Contrary to our prediction, the risk of predation was not greatest when the number of active shorebird nests was highest. Although nest abundance reached a maximum near the middle of the breeding season, a daily index of shorebird nest activity was not supported as a predictor of nest survival in the models. Predators’ access to other diet items, in addition to shorebird nests, may instead determine the temporal patterns of nest predation. Nest survival also displayed a positive, linear relationship with nest age; however, this effect was most pronounced among species with biparental incubation. Among biparental species, parents defended older nests with greater intensity. We did not detect a similar relationship among uniparental species, and conclude that the stronger relationship between nest age and both nest defence and nest survival for biparental species reflects that their nest defence is more effective.     

Factors Affecting Daily Nest Survival of Burrowing Owls Within Black-Tailed Prairie Dog Colonies

ABSTRACT Identifying environmental parameters that influence probability of nest predation is important for developing and implementing effective management strategies for species of conservation concern. We estimated daily nest survival for a migratory population of burrowing owls (Athene cunicularia) breeding in black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) colonies in Wyoming, USA. We compared estimates based on 3 common approaches: apparent nesting success, Mayfield estimates, and a model-based logistic-exposure approach. We also examined whether 8 intrinsic and extrinsic factors affected daily nest survival in burrowing owls. Positive biases in apparent nest survival were low (3–6%), probably because prior knowledge of nest locations and colonial behavior among nesting pairs facilitated discovery of most nests early in the nesting cycle. Daily nest survival increased as the breeding season progressed, was negatively correlated with ambient temperature, was positively correlated with nest-burrow tunnel length, and decreased as the nesting cycle progressed. Environmental features were similar between failed and successful nests based on 95% confidence intervals, but the seasonal midpoint was earlier for failed nests (31 May) compared to successful nests (15 Jun). The large annual variation in nest survival (a 15.3% increase between 2003 and 2004) accentuates the importance of multiyear studies when estimating reproductive parameters and when examining the factors that affect those parameters. Failure to locate and monitor nests throughout the breeding season may yield biased estimates of nesting success in burrowing owls (and possibly other species), and some of the variation in nesting success among years and across study sites may be explained by annual and spatial variation in ambient temperature. Any management actions that result in fewer prairie dogs, shorter burrow lengths, or earlier nesting may adversely affect reproductive success of burrowing owls.     

Delayed egg‐laying and shortened incubation duration of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds coincide with climate cooling

Biological impacts of climate change are exemplified by shifts in phenology. As the timing of breeding advances, the within‐season relationships between timing of breeding and reproductive traits may change and cause long‐term changes in the population mean value of reproductive traits. We investigated long‐term changes in the timing of breeding and within‐season patterns of clutch size, egg volume, incubation duration, and daily nest survival of three shorebird species between two decades. Based on previously known within‐season patterns and assuming a warming trend, we hypothesized that the timing of clutch initiation would advance between decades and would be coupled with increases in mean clutch size, egg volume, and daily nest survival rate. We monitored 1,378 nests of western sandpipers, semipalmated sandpipers, and red‐necked phalaropes at a subarctic site during 1993–1996 and 2010–2014. Sandpipers have biparental incubation, whereas phalaropes have uniparental incubation. We found an unexpected long‐term cooling trend during the early part of the breeding season. Three species delayed clutch initiation by 5 days in the 2010s relative to the 1990s. Clutch size and daily nest survival showed strong within‐season declines in sandpipers, but not in phalaropes. Egg volume showed strong within‐season declines in one species of sandpiper, but increased in phalaropes. Despite the within‐season patterns in traits and shifts in phenology, clutch size, egg volume, and daily nest survival were similar between decades. In contrast, incubation duration did not show within‐season variation, but decreased by 2 days in sandpipers and increased by 2 days in phalaropes. Shorebirds demonstrated variable breeding phenology and incubation duration in relation to climate cooling, but little change in nonphenological components of traits. Our results indicate that the breeding phenology of shorebirds is closely associated with the temperature conditions on breeding ground, the effects of which can vary among reproductive traits and among sympatric species.     

Determinants of reproductive success and offspring sex in a turtle with environmental sex determination

Despite the importance of maternal effects in evolution, and knowledge of links among nest site choice, timing of nesting, offspring sex, and reproductive success in animals with environmental sex determination, these attributes have not been rigorously studied in a combined and natural context. To address this need we studied the relationships between three maternal traits (nest site choice, lay date, and nest depth) and two fitness‐related attributes of offspring (hatchling sex and embryonic survival) in the riverine turtle Carettochelys insculpta, a species with temperature‐dependent sex determination, for four years. Predation and flooding were the major sources of embryonic mortality in 191 nests. Embryonic survival was influenced by both lay date and nest site choice: in one year when nesting began later than average, nests laid later and at lower elevations were destroyed by early wet season river rises. In other years early nesting precluded flood mortality. However, turtles did not nest at the highest available elevations, and a field experiment confirmed that turtles were constrained to nest at lower elevations where they could construct a nest chamber. The principal determinant of hatchling sex in 140 nests was lay date, which in turn was apparently related to the magnitude of the previous wet season(s). Clutches laid earlier in the season (a female's first clutch) produced mainly males, while later clutches (her second clutch) yielded mostly females, due to seasonal increases in air temperatures. Accordingly, later nesting produced female‐biased hatchling sex ratios in 1996, while earlier nesting resulted in sex ratios near unity in the other years. However, all‐female nests were more likely to be flooded than mixed‐sex or all‐male nests in years when nesting was late. In conclusion, we found evidence that the position of two maternal trait distributions (elevation of the nest site and lay date), associated with the reproductive strategy of C. insculpta, reflect a combination of natural selection, physical constraints, and phenotypic plasticity. © 2004 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2004, 81 , 1–16.     

Effect of floating nest platforms on the breeding performance of Black Terns

ABSTRACT.   In 2003 and 2004, we placed 41 floating nest platforms on Grassy Lake in southeastern Wisconsin (USA) to test the hypothesis that reproductive success of Black Terns ( Chlidonias niger ) is limited by the quality of suitable nesting habitat. Extreme differences in water levels between these 2 yr provided a natural experiment to evaluate the effectiveness of the nest platforms during a drought year (2003) when natural nesting substrate was abundant, and a flood year (2004) when natural substrate was limited during the peak nesting period. Terns nested on 27 of 41 (66%) of the platforms in 2003 and 26 of 41 (63%) in 2004. No difference in the occupancy rate of platforms and natural nests was evident in 2003, but the pattern of clutch initiations early in the season in 2004 indicated that platforms were preferred over natural substrates. In 2003, nest survival rates did not differ between nests placed on platforms and those placed on natural substrates, but platform nests had significantly higher hatching success and nest survival rates in 2004. Both the Kaplan-Meier and Apparent Nest Success methods of calculating nest survival provided similar estimates. In both years, eggs laid on platforms were significantly larger than those laid on natural substrates, suggesting that platforms were occupied by high-quality birds. Our study indicates that floating nest platforms can be an effective management tool to enhance nesting habitat for Black Terns and other aquatic birds that construct floating nests, primarily because platforms provide nest sites when natural sites are not available due to flooding. Nest platforms also may be useful for addressing questions concerning habitat selection and parental quality.     

Columbian sharp-tailed grouse female and nest survival in northwestern Colorado

Wildlife management and conservation can be challenging when the demography of a focal species is unknown or limited given that fecundity and adult survival influence population growth. The Columbian sharp-tailed grouse (Tympanuchus phasianellus columbianus) have been reduced to ≤10% of their former range since the early 1900s. We conducted a 3-year study (2015–2017) across 4 study sites in northwestern Colorado, USA, to evaluate female hazard and nest survival. We trapped and marked 270 female sharp-tailed grouse and identified 275 nests for our hazard and survival analyses. Females during the breeding stage of the reproductive season experienced more hazard compared to the nesting and the early and late post-nesting stages for females without broods. Females experienced a higher degree of hazard during the breeding stage and mortality risk was >3 times higher than the nesting stage, >7 times higher than early post-nesting (EPN)-no brood stage, and >5 times higher than the late post-nesting (LPN)-unsuccessful stage. Two reproductive season stages (LPN-successful and EPN-brood) provided marginal inference. Nest incubation initiation date and nest age best described nest daily survival. Females that initiated incubation of initial nests earlier in the season experienced lower nest daily survival than later in the incubation season. Because female Columbian sharp-tailed grouse hazard varied among different reproductive season stages, we recommend that wildlife managers develop management actions that reduce hazard during the specific reproductive season stages (i.e., the breeding season). For Columbian sharp-tailed grouse in Colorado, we recommend that Colorado Parks and Wildlife collaborate with federal farm program agencies to implement a no-tillage restriction from 1 May through 30 June for active agricultural fields within 2 km of active Columbian sharp-tailed grouse leks to enhance nest survival.     

Merriam's Turkey Nest Survival and Factors Affecting Nest Predation by Mammals

Abstract: Nest success is an important parameter affecting population fluctuations of wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo). Factors influencing mammalian predation on turkey nests are complicated and not well understood. Therefore, we assessed nest hazard risk by testing competing hypotheses of Merriam's turkey (M. g. merriami) nest survival in a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) ecosystem during 2001–2003. We collected nesting information on 83 female Merriam's turkeys; annual nest success averaged 50% for adult females (range = 45–59%) and 83% for yearling females (range = 75–100%). Proportional hazard modeling indicated that precipitation increased the hazard of nest mortality. However, estimated hazard of nest predation was lowered when incubating females had greater shrub cover and visual obstruction around nests. Coyotes (Canis latrans) were the primary predator on turkey nests. We hypothesize that precipitation is the best predictor of nest survival for first nests because coyotes use olfaction effectively to find nesting females during wet periods. Temporally, as the nesting season progressed, precipitation declined and vegetation cover increased and coyotes may have more difficulty detecting nests under these conditions later in the nesting period. The interaction of concealment cover with precipitation indicated that nest hazard risk from daily precipitation was reduced with greater shrub cover. Management activities that promote greater shrub cover may partially offset the negative effects of greater precipitation events.     

The effects of rainfall on different components of seasonal fecundity in a tropical forest passerine

Seasonal fecundity is a composite metric that is determined by component parameters such as clutch size, nest survival and re‐nesting probability. Many of these component parameters are known to vary with environmental conditions, in particular rainfall prior to or during the breeding season. In some species, seasonal fecundity is positively related to rainfall, but little is known about which component parameters of seasonal fecundity respond most strongly to rainfall. We used intensive nest monitoring of a multi‐brooded tropical forest passerine, the Montserrat Oriole Icterus oberi, to examine the effects of rainfall during the pre‐breeding season on component parameters of annual fecundity. We monitored all nests of a total of 42 pairs over 5 years in which rainfall varied substantially. We then related clutch size, nest survival, onset and length of the breeding season, re‐nesting probability and re‐nesting interval to pre‐breeding season rainfall using generalized linear mixed models that accounted for random variation across sites and individual pairs, and incorporated other variables known to affect the response. Higher pre‐breeding season rainfall led to an increase in clutch size and a decrease in re‐nesting interval, but nest survival, re‐nesting probability and length of the breeding season were not affected by variation in rainfall. The onset of the breeding season was delayed in very dry years. We conclude that higher rainfall is likely to increase food availability and thus body condition of female Montserrat Orioles, leading to an increase in fecundity due to larger clutch sizes.     

Fitness consequences of ecological constraints and implications for the evolution of sociality in an incipiently social bee

Ecological constraints such as resource limitation, unfavourable weather conditions, and parasite pressure have long been considered some of the most important selective pressures for the evolution of sociality. In the present study, we assess the fitness consequences of these three ecological factors on reproductive success of solitary nests and social colonies in the socially polymorphic small carpenter bee, Ceratina australensis, based on 982 nests collected over four reproductive periods. Nest site limitation was predicted to decrease opportunities for independent nest initiation and increase the frequency of social nesting. Nest sites were not limiting in this species and the frequency of social nesting was consistent across the four brood‐rearing periods studied. Unfavourable weather was predicted to lower the frequency of female dispersal from their natal nests and to limit the brood‐rearing season; this would increase the frequency and fitness of social colonies. Daily temperature and precipitation accumulation varied between seasons but were not correlated with reproductive success in this bee. Increased parasite pressure is predicted to increase the frequency and fitness of social colonies because solitary bees must leave the nest unattended during foraging bouts and are less able to defend the nest against parasites. Severe parasitism by a chalcid wasp (Eurytoma sp.) resulted in low reproductive success and total nest failure in solitary nests. Social colonies had higher reproductive success and were never extirpated by parasites. The high frequency of solitary nests suggests that this is the optimal strategy. However, social colonies have a selective advantage over solitary nesting females during periods of extreme parasite pressure, and we suggest that social nesting represents a form of bet‐hedging against unpredictable fluctuations in parasite number. © 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 103 , 57–67.     

Effect of nesting environment on incubation temperature and hatching success of Morelet's crocodile (Crocodylus moreletii) in an urban lake of Southeastern Mexico

Incubation temperature is an important aspect in terms of biological performance among crocodiles, and several controlled experiments have demonstrated a significant relationship between incubation temperature, success in hatching and survival of hatchlings. However, a few studies have tested these relationships in the wild. The objective of this study was to determine the relationship of nest characteristics and environment (hatch year, nest basal area and height, clutch size, distance to shore line, and vegetation cover), to incubation temperature and hatching success among Morelet's crocodile (Crocodylus moreletii). The study was carried out during the nesting seasons of Morelet's crocodile, from 2007 to 2009 in the Laguna de Las Ilusiones, an urban lake located in Villahermosa, Tabasco, Mexico. We physically characterized 18 nests and inserted a temperature data logger in each nest chamber. At the end of the nesting season and prior to hatching, we recovered the crocodile eggs and data loggers and calculated hatching success, under laboratory conditions. We related the environmental variables of the nest with the mean and fluctuation (standard deviation) of nest temperature, using linear models. We also related the environmental variables affecting the nest, to mean nest temperature and fluctuation in incubation temperature and to hatching success, using linear models. Although we found differences in incubation temperature between nests, mean incubation temperature did not differ between years, but there were differences in nest thermal fluctuation between years. The mean incubation temperature for 11 nests (61.1%) was lower than the suggested Female–Male pivotal temperature (producing 50% of each sex) for this species, and all hatchlings obtained were males. There were no differences in clutch size between years, but hatching success varied. Our study indicates that hatching success depends on certain environmental variables and nest conditions to which the eggs are subjected, including season, nest size and clutch size. We also discuss the importance of the fluctuation of incubation temperature on hatching success and sex determination.     

Off‐road vehicles affect nesting behaviour and reproductive success of American Oystercatchers Haematopus palliatus

As human populations and associated development increase, interactions between humans and wildlife are occurring with greater frequency. The effects of these interactions, particularly on species whose populations are declining, are of great interest to ecologists, conservationists, land managers and natural resource policy‐makers. The American Oystercatcher Haematopus palliatus, a species of conservation concern in the USA, nests on coastal beaches subject to various forms of anthropogenic disturbance, including aircraft overflights, off‐road vehicles and pedestrians. This study assessed the effects of these human disturbances on the incubation behaviour and reproductive success of nesting American Oystercatchers at Cape Lookout National Seashore, on the Atlantic coast of the USA. We expanded on‐going monitoring of Oystercatchers at Cape Lookout National Seashore by supplementing periodic visual observations with continuous 24‐h video and audio recording at nests. Aircraft overflights were not associated with changes in Oystercatcher incubation behaviour, and we found no evidence that aircraft overflights influenced Oystercatcher reproductive success. However, Oystercatchers were on their nests significantly less often during off‐road vehicle and pedestrian events than they were during control periods before the events, and an increase in the number of off‐road vehicles passing a nest during incubation was consistently associated with significant reductions in daily nest survival (6% decrease in daily nest survival for a one‐vehicle increase in the average number of vehicles passing a nest each day; odds ratio = 0.94; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.90, 0.98) and hatching success (12% decrease in hatching success for a one‐vehicle increase in the average number of vehicles passing a nest each day; odds ratio = 0.88; 95% CI 0.76, 0.97). Management of vehicles and pedestrians in areas of Oystercatcher breeding is important for the conservation of American Oystercatchers.     

Nest predation reduces benefits to early clutch initiation in northern cardinals Cardinalis cardinalis

Life history theory and empirical studies suggest that early breeding confers higher reproductive success, but the extent to which this advantage can be generalized to human‐dominated systems and across species is less well understood. We studied the fitness consequences of clutch initiation for 181 female northern cardinals Cardinalis cardinalis and 1228 nests in forests within urban and rural landscapes of Ohio, USA between 2004–2007. Cardinals that bred earlier made significantly more nesting attempts, but cumulative number of young fledged was similar to that of later‐breeding individuals. The expected number of fledglings produced per successful nest was unrelated to date and remained ~1.8 fledglings across the season, despite the fact that nest survival rates improved dramatically as the season progressed. Because the probability of resighting breeding individuals in subsequent years was unrelated to first clutch initiation date, we have no evidence that clutch initiation affected adult survival. The absence of a clear benefit to early breeding appears to be a consequence of high rates of nest predation early in the breeding season.     

Life‐history tradeoffs revealed by seasonal declines in reproductive traits of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds

Seasonal declines in breeding performance are widespread in wild animals, resulting from temporal changes in environmental conditions or from individual variation. Seasonal declines might drive selection for early breeding, with implications for other stages of the annual cycle. Alternatively, selection on the phenology of nonbreeding stages could constrain timing of the breeding season and lead to seasonal changes in reproductive performance. We studied 25 taxa of migratory shorebirds (including five subspecies) at 16 arctic sites in Russia, Alaska, and Canada. We investigated seasonal changes in four reproductive traits, and developed a novel Bayesian risk‐partitioning model of daily nest survival to examine seasonal trends in two causes of nest failure. We found strong seasonal declines in reproductive traits for a subset of species. The probability of laying a full four‐egg clutch declined by 8–78% in 12 of 25 taxa tested, daily nest survival rates declined by 1–12% in eight of 22 taxa, incubation duration declined by 2.0–2.5% in two of seven taxa, and mean egg volume declined by 5% in one of 15 taxa. Temporal changes were not fully explained by individual variation. Across all species, the proportion of failed nests that were depredated declined over the season from 0.98 to 0.60, while the proportion abandoned increased from 0.01 to 0.35 and drove the seasonal declines in nest survival. An increase in abandonment of late nests is consistent with a life‐history tradeoff whereby either adult mortality increased or adults deserted the breeding attempt to maximize adult survival. In turn, seasonal declines in clutch size and incubation duration might be adaptive to hasten hatching of later nests. In other species of shorebirds, we found no seasonal patterns in breeding performance, suggesting that some species are not subject to selective pressure for early breeding.     

Variable drivers of primary versus secondary nesting; density‐dependence and drought effects on greater sage‐grouse

Organisms seek to maximize fitness by balancing reproductive allocations against mortality risk, given selection pressures inherent to the environment. However, environmental conditions are often dynamic and unpredictable, which complicates the ability to achieve such a balance, and may require reproductive adjustments depending on prevailing conditions. We evaluated the effects of density‐dependent, density‐independent (drought), and individual (age, body condition) factors on nesting decisions of female greater sage‐grouse in the American Great Basin. We obtained relocations and recorded reproductive histories from 287 radio‐marked females over a period of 10 yr, and applied these data to a multi‐state model that estimated probabilities of initiating a first nest (primary nesting rate) or a second nest, given loss of a first (secondary nesting rate). This approach allowed us to evaluate the relative association between nesting rates and covariates while accounting for imperfect detection of nests. Sage‐grouse primary and secondary nesting were influenced differently by density dependence and drought. Primary nesting was high and relatively constant among years despite variable drought conditions, but was negatively associated with population size (density dependence). Secondary nesting was lower and more variable compared to primary nesting, was similarly influenced by density‐dependence, and was also sensitive to drought conditions. Females known to initiate second nests were in better body condition than females that only initiated first nests, and females of intermediate age had higher primary nesting rates, whereas secondary nesting was unaffected by age. Our results suggest that females were more flexible and responded more readily to changing conditions when allocating resources to second nests. These results are consistent with patterns that have been demonstrated for female allocation to clutch size in this system, and suggest that when conditions are poor second nests reflect a tipping point where reproductive costs (increased mortality) outweigh benefits (offspring reproductive value).     

Impacts of nest predators and weather on reproductive success and population limitation in a long‐distance migratory songbird

Although avian nesting success is much studied, little is known about the relative importance of the factors that contribute to annual reproductive success and population limitation, especially for long‐distance migratory songbird species. We combined a field experiment limiting access to nests by mammalian predators with modeling of long‐term field data of American redstarts (Parulidae: Setophaga ruticilla) to assess the effects of multiple environmental variables on breeding success and population limitation. Experimental treatment (baffles placed around tree boles beneath active nests; n = 71) increased nesting success of this single‐brooded species significantly (77 vs 50% in controls; n = 343), demonstrating that scansorial mammals, primarily red squirrels Tamiasciurus hudsonicus and eastern chipmunks Tamias striatus, reduced reproductive success. Based on unbaffled nests (n = 466), daily nest survival varied annually, and was positively influenced by May temperature and negatively by sciurid nest predator abundance. Daily nest survival was also influenced positively by June rainfall, and declined with nest age but not with calendar date. Since nest failure was overwhelmingly caused by nest predation, these significant climate and nest‐age effects in our models are indirect, likely influencing nest predator and/or nesting bird behaviors that in turn influenced nest predation. Redstart population density had no effect on nesting success, after accounting for other factors. Annual reproductive success accounted for 34% of the variability in annual population change in redstarts in our study area. Our findings document 1) breeding season population limitation in this species, 2) a link between tree masting and bird population dynamics via mammal population fluctuations, 3) the independent contributions of summer versus winter population processes in a migratory species, and 4) the potential complexity of climate‐biotic interactions.     

Incubation recess behaviors influence nest survival of Wild Turkeys

In ground nesting upland birds, reproductive activities contribute to elevated predation risk, so females presumably use multiple strategies to ensure nest success. Identification of drivers reducing predation risk has primarily focused on evaluating vegetative conditions at nest sites, but behavioral decisions manifested through movements during incubation may be additional drivers of nest survival. However, our understanding of how movements during incubation impact nest survival is limited for most ground nesting birds. Using GPS data collected from female Eastern Wild Turkeys (n = 206), we evaluated nest survival as it relates to movement behaviors during incubation, including recess frequency, distance traveled during recesses, and habitat selection during recess movements. We identified 9,361 movements off nests and 6,529 recess events based on approximately 62,065 hr of incubation data, and estimated mean nest attentiveness of 84.0%. The numbers of recesses taken daily were variable across females (range: 1?7). Nest survival modeling indicated that increased cumulative distance moved during recesses each day was the primary driver of positive daily nest survival. Our results suggest behavioral decisions are influencing trade‐offs between nest survival and adult female survival during incubation to reduce predation risk, specifically through adjustments to distances traveled during recesses.     

Nest Success of Gunnison Sage-Grouse in Colorado,USA

Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus) is a species of concern for which little demographic information exists. To help fill this information gap, we investigated factors affecting nest success in two populations of Gunnison Sage-Grouse. We assessed the relative effects of (1) vegetation characteristics (e.g., shrub height, shrub cover, grass cover, and grass height), (2) temporal factors (e.g., year, timing of incubation initiation, and nest age), (3) precipitation, and (4) age of the nesting female (yearling or adult) on nest success rates. We found 177 nests in the Gunnison Basin population (that contains 85–90% of the species) from 2005–2010 and 20 nests in the San Miguel population (that contains < 10% of the species) from 2007–2010. Temporal factors had the greatest impact on nest success compared to vegetation characteristics, precipitation, and female age. Nest success varied considerably among years ranging from 4.0%-60.2% in Gunnison Basin and from 12.9%- 51.9% in San Miguel. Nests that were initiated earlier in the breeding season had higher nest success (at least one egg hatches). Daily nest survival rates decreased during the course of incubation. None of the vegetation characteristics we examined were strongly related to nest success.