Changes in phenological events in response to a global warming scenario reveal greater adaptability of winter annual compared with summer annual arabidopsis ecotypes

Background and AimsThe impact of global warming on life cycle timing is uncertain. We investigated changes in life cycle timing in a global warming scenario. We compared Arabidopsis thaliana ecotypes adapted to the warm/dry Cape Verdi Islands (Cvi), Macaronesia, and the cool/wet climate of the Burren (Bur), Ireland, Northern Europe. These are obligate winter and summer annuals, respectively.MethodsUsing a global warming scenario predicting a 4 °C temperature rise from 2011 to approx. 2080, we produced F₁ seeds at each end of a thermogradient tunnel. Each F₁ cohort (cool and warm) then produced F₂ seeds at both ends of the thermal gradient in winter and summer annual life cycles. F₂ seeds from the winter life cycle were buried at three positions along the gradient to determine the impact of temperature on seedling emergence in a simulated winter life cycle.Key ResultsIn a winter life cycle, increasing temperatures advanced flowering time by 10.1 d °C^–1 in the winter annual and 4.9 d °C^–1 in the summer annual. Plant size and seed yield responded positively to global warming in both ecotypes. In a winter life cycle, the impact of increasing temperature on seedling emergence timing was positive in the winter annual, but negative in the summer annual. Global warming reduced summer annual plant size and seed yield in a summer life cycle.ConclusionsSeedling emergence timing observed in the north European summer annual ecotype may exacerbate the negative impact of predicted increased spring and summer temperatures on their establishment and reproductive performance. In contrast, seedling establishment of the Macaronesian winter annual may benefit from higher soil temperatures that will delay emergence until autumn, but which also facilitates earlier spring flowering and consequent avoidance of high summer temperatures. Such plasticity gives winter annual arabidopsis ecotypes a distinct advantage over summer annuals in expected global warming scenarios. This highlights the importance of variation in the timing of seedling establishment in understanding plant species responses to anthropogenic climate change.     

Climate warming could increase recruitment success in glacier foreland plants

Background and Aims Glacier foreland plants are highly threatened by global warming. Regeneration from seeds on deglaciated terrain will be crucial for successful migration and survival of these species, and hence a better understanding of the impacts of climate change on seedling recruitment is urgently needed to predict future plant persistence in these environments. This study presents the first field evidence of the impact of climate change on recruitment success of glacier foreland plants.Methods Seeds of eight foreland species were sown on a foreland site at 2500 m a.s.l., and at a site 400 m lower in altitude to simulate a 2·7 °C increase in mean annual temperature. Soil from the site of origin was used to reproduce the natural germination substrate. Recruitment success, temperature and water potential were monitored for 2 years. The response of seed germination to warming was further investigated in the laboratory.Key Results At the glacier foreland site, seedling emergence was low (0 to approx. 40 %) and occurred in summer in all species after seeds had experienced autumn and winter seasons. However, at the warmer site there was a shift from summer to autumn emergence in two species and a significant increase of summer emergence (13–35 % higher) in all species except two. Survival and establishment was possible for 60–75 % of autumn-emerged seedlings and was generally greater under warmer conditions. Early snowmelt in spring caused the main ecological factors enhancing the recruitment success.Conclusions The results suggest that warming will influence the recruitment of glacier foreland species primarily via the extension of the snow-free period in spring, which increases seedling establishment and results in a greater resistance to summer drought and winter extremes. The changes in recruitment success observed here imply that range shifts or changes in abundance are possible in a future warmer climate, but overall success may be dependent on interactions with shifts in other components of the plant community.     

Artificial asymmetric warming reduces nectar yield in a Tibetan alpine species of Asteraceae

Background and Aims Asymmetric warming is one of the distinguishing features of global climate change, in which winter and night-time temperatures are predicted to increase more than summer and diurnal temperatures. Winter warming weakens vernalization and hence decreases the potential to flower for some perennial herbs, and night warming can reduce carbohydrate concentrations in storage organs. This study therefore hypothesized that asymmetric warming should act to reduce flower number and nectar production per flower in a perennial herb, Saussurea nigrescens, a key nectar plant for pollinators in Tibetan alpine meadows.Methods A long-term (6 years) warming experiment was conducted using open-top chambers placed in a natural meadow and manipulated to achieve asymmetric increases in temperature, as follows: a mean annual increase of 0·7 and 2·7 °C during the growing and non-growing seasons, respectively, combined with an increase of 1·6 and 2·8 °C in the daytime and night-time, respectively, from June to August. Measurements were taken of nectar volume and concentration (sucrose content), and also of leaf non-structural carbohydrate content and plant morphology.Key Results Six years of experimental warming resulted in reductions in nectar volume per floret (64·7 % of control), floret number per capitulum (8·7 %) and capitulum number per plant (32·5 %), whereas nectar concentration remained unchanged. Depletion of leaf non-structural carbohydrates was significantly higher in the warmed than in the ambient condition. Overall plant density was also reduced by warming, which, when combined with reductions in flower development and nectar volumes, led to a reduction of ∼90 % in nectar production per unit area.Conclusions The negative effect of asymmetric warming on nectar yields in S. nigrescens may be explained by a concomitant depletion of leaf non-structural carbohydrates. The results thus highlight a novel aspect of how climate change might affect plant–pollinator interactions and plant reproduction via induction of allocation shifts for plants growing in communities subject to asymmetric warming.     

Potential Impacts of Future Warming and Land Use Changes on Intra-Urban Heat Exposure in Houston,Texas

Extreme heat events in the United States are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. We investigated the individual and combined effects of land use and warming on the spatial and temporal distribution of daily minimum temperature (T_min) and daily maximum heat index (HI_max) during summer in Houston, Texas. Present-day (2010) and near-future (2040) parcel-level land use scenarios were embedded within 1-km resolution land surface model (LSM) simulations. For each land use scenario, LSM simulations were conducted for climatic scenarios representative of both the present-day and near-future periods. LSM simulations assuming present-day climate but 2040 land use patterns led to spatially heterogeneous temperature changes characterized by warmer conditions over most areas, with summer average increases of up to 1.5°C (T_min) and 7.3°C (HI_max) in some newly developed suburban areas compared to simulations using 2010 land use patterns. LSM simulations assuming present-day land use but a 1°C temperature increase above the urban canopy (consistent with warming projections for 2040) yielded more spatially homogeneous metropolitan-wide average increases of about 1°C (T_min) and 2.5°C (HI_max), respectively. LSM simulations assuming both land use and warming for 2040 led to summer average increases of up to 2.5°C (T_min) and 8.3°C (HI_max), with the largest increases in areas projected to be converted to residential, industrial and mixed-use types. Our results suggest that urbanization and climate change may significantly increase the average number of summer days that exceed current threshold temperatures for initiating a heat advisory for metropolitan Houston, potentially increasing population exposure to extreme heat.     

Diving through the thermal window: implications for a warming world

Population decline and a shift in the geographical distribution of some ectothermic animals have been attributed to climatic warming. Here, we show that rises in water temperature of a few degrees, while within the thermal window for locomotor performance, may be detrimental to diving behaviour in air-breathing ectotherms (turtles, crocodilians, marine iguanas, amphibians, snakes and lizards). Submergence times and internal and external body temperature were remotely recorded from freshwater crocodiles (Crocodylus johnstoni) while they free-ranged throughout their natural habitat in summer and winter. During summer, the crocodiles'' mean body temperature was 5.2 ± 0.1°C higher than in winter and the largest proportion of total dive time was composed of dive durations approximately 15 min less than in winter. Diving beyond 40 min during summer required the crocodiles to exponentially increase the time they spent on the surface after the dive, presumably to clear anaerobic debt. The relationship was not as significant in winter, even though a greater proportion of dives were of a longer duration, suggesting that diving lactate threshold (DLT) was reduced in summer compared with winter. Additional evidence for a reduced DLT in summer was derived from the stronger influence body mass exerted upon dive duration, compared to winter. The results demonstrate that the higher summer body temperature increased oxygen demand during the dive, implying that thermal acclimatization of the diving metabolic rate was inadequate. If the study findings are common among air-breathing diving ectotherms, then long-term warming of the aquatic environment may be detrimental to behavioural function and survivorship.     

Summer Hot Snaps and Winter Conditions: Modelling White Syndrome Outbreaks on Great Barrier Reef Corals

Coral reefs are under increasing pressure in a changing climate, one such threat being more frequent and destructive outbreaks of coral diseases. Thermal stress from rising temperatures has been implicated as a causal factor in disease outbreaks observed on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, and elsewhere in the world. Here, we examine seasonal effects of satellite-derived temperature on the abundance of coral diseases known as white syndromes on the Great Barrier Reef, considering both warm stress during summer and deviations from mean temperatures during the preceding winter. We found a high correlation (r² = 0.953) between summer warm thermal anomalies (Hot Snap) and disease abundance during outbreak events. Inclusion of thermal conditions during the preceding winter revealed that a significant reduction in disease outbreaks occurred following especially cold winters (Cold Snap), potentially related to a reduction in pathogen loading. Furthermore, mild winters (i.e., neither excessively cool nor warm) frequently preceded disease outbreaks. In contrast, disease outbreaks did not typically occur following warm winters, potentially because of increased disease resistance of the coral host. Understanding the balance between the effects of warm and cold winters on disease outbreak will be important in a warming climate. Combining the influence of winter and summer thermal effects resulted in an algorithm that yields both a Seasonal Outlook of disease risk at the conclusion of winter and near real-time monitoring of Outbreak Risk during summer. This satellite-derived system can provide coral reef managers with an assessment of risk three-to-six months in advance of the summer season that can then be refined using near-real-time summer observations. This system can enhance the capacity of managers to prepare for and respond to possible disease outbreaks and focus research efforts to increase understanding of environmental impacts on coral disease in this era of rapidly changing climate.     

Population age structure and recent

Mid to late 20th century expansion of Dracophyllum scrub into tussock grassland on subantarctic Campbell Island has been attributed to the collective effects of global warming, cessation of farming in 1931, and continued grazing by feral sheep. To determine the importance of these, we dated the timing of scrub expansion by aging 241 Dracophyllum plants in 17 plots chosen to sample the range of environments this shrub/ small tree occupies on Campbell Island. Three plots, in lowland, well-drained, locations were dominated by large, old Dracophyllum that had established between 1846 and 1940. Virtually all shrubs in the remaining plots had established after 1940, with peaks in 1970 and 1985. The pattern of establishment does not coincide with any marked change in the temperature regime, although a prolonged period of relatively dry winters (c. 1970–1990) coincides with a late surge of regeneration on very wet sites. The removal of feral sheep from different parts of the island at different times is also unrelated to the pattern of establishment. In contrast, Dracophyllum spread follows farm abandonment in 1931 when regular burning ceased, suggesting that Dracophyllum is invading sites from which it was excluded by fire. However, the earliest reports from the mid 19th century indicate that tussock grassland was previously the dominant vegetation cover on the island, with limited Dracophyllum scrub. It is possible that the reduction of the dense tussock grasslands by fire and grazing in late 19th–early 20th century opened a regeneration window for Dracophyllum scrub to spread once burning ceased.     

Influence of Climate Change and Trophic Coupling across Four Trophic Levels in the Celtic Sea

Climate change has had profound effects upon marine ecosystems, impacting across all trophic levels from plankton to apex predators. Determining the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems requires understanding the direct effects on all trophic levels as well as indirect effects mediated by trophic coupling. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on the pelagic food web in the Celtic Sea, a productive shelf region in the Northeast Atlantic. Using long-term data, we examined possible direct and indirect ‘bottom-up’ climate effects across four trophic levels: phytoplankton, zooplankton, mid-trophic level fish and seabirds. During the period 1986–2007, although there was no temporal trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), the decadal mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the Celtic Sea increased by 0.66±0.02°C. Despite this, there was only a weak signal of climate change in the Celtic Sea food web. Changes in plankton community structure were found, however this was not related to SST or NAO. A negative relationship occurred between herring abundance (0- and 1-group) and spring SST (0-group: p = 0.02, slope = −0.305±0.125; 1-group: p = 0.04, slope = −0.410±0.193). Seabird demographics showed complex species–specific responses. There was evidence of direct effects of spring NAO (on black-legged kittiwake population growth rate: p = 0.03, slope = 0.0314±0.014) as well as indirect bottom-up effects of lagged spring SST (on razorbill breeding success: p = 0.01, slope = −0.144±0.05). Negative relationships between breeding success and population growth rate of razorbills and common guillemots may be explained by interactions between mid-trophic level fish. Our findings show that the impacts of climate change on the Celtic Sea ecosystem is not as marked as in nearby regions (e.g. the North Sea), emphasizing the need for more research at regional scales.     

Tolerance of photosynthesis to high temperature in desert plants

Winter- and summertime-active desert annual species were grown at different temperatures to assess their capacity for photosynthetic acclimation. Thermal stability of photosynthesis was determined from responses of chlorophyll fluorescence to increased temperature. Photosynthesis in winter ephemerals grown at 28°C/21°C became unstable close to 41°C in contrast to the summer annuals which were stable up to about 46°C. Growth at higher temperature (43°C/32°C) resulted in increases in thermal stability of 5 to 7°C for the winter annuals and 3 to 4°C for the summer annuals, showing that temperature can provide the primary stimulus for acclimation of the photosynthetic apparatus. The magnitude of these changes was very similar to the range of field values observed for the respective floras, indicating that the thermal acclimation response under field conditions was qualitatively similar to that occurring under controlled growth conditions. Perennial species, co-existing with these annuals in the desert, were on average more thermostable. The cacti were exceptionally heat stable, the threshold for fluorescence increase averaging 55°C.     

Potential Climate Change Effects on the Habitat of Antarctic Krill in the Weddell Quadrant of the Southern Ocean

Antarctic krill is a cold water species, an increasingly important fishery resource and a major prey item for many fish, birds and mammals in the Southern Ocean. The fishery and the summer foraging sites of many of these predators are concentrated between 0° and 90°W. Parts of this quadrant have experienced recent localised sea surface warming of up to 0.2°C per decade, and projections suggest that further widespread warming of 0.27° to 1.08°C will occur by the late 21^st century. We assessed the potential influence of this projected warming on Antarctic krill habitat with a statistical model that links growth to temperature and chlorophyll concentration. The results divide the quadrant into two zones: a band around the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in which habitat quality is particularly vulnerable to warming, and a southern area which is relatively insensitive. Our analysis suggests that the direct effects of warming could reduce the area of growth habitat by up to 20%. The reduction in growth habitat within the range of predators, such as Antarctic fur seals, that forage from breeding sites on South Georgia could be up to 55%, and the habitat’s ability to support Antarctic krill biomass production within this range could be reduced by up to 68%. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the effects of a 50% change in summer chlorophyll concentration could be more significant than the direct effects of warming. A reduction in primary production could lead to further habitat degradation but, even if chlorophyll increased by 50%, projected warming would still cause some degradation of the habitat accessible to predators. While there is considerable uncertainty in these projections, they suggest that future climate change could have a significant negative effect on Antarctic krill growth habitat and, consequently, on Southern Ocean biodiversity and ecosystem services.     

How does a wetland plant respond to increasing temperature along a latitudinal gradient?

Global warming affects plant fitness through changes in functional traits and thereby ecosystem function. Wetlands are declining worldwide, and hence, ecosystem functions linked to wetlands are threatened. We use Caltha palustris “a common wetland plant” to study whether warming affects growth and reproduction differently depending on origin of source population, potentially affecting phenotypic response to local climate. We conducted a 2‐year in situ temperature manipulation experiment using clone pairs of C. palustris in four regions, along a 1300‐km latitudinal gradient of Sweden. Open‐top chambers were used to passively increase temperature, paired with controls. Growth and reproductive traits were measured from 320 plants (four regions × five sites × two treatments × eight plants) over two consecutive seasons to assess the effect of warming over time. We found that warming increased plant height, leaf area, number of leaves, and roots. High‐latitude populations responded more strongly to warming than low‐latitude populations, especially by increasing leaf area. Warming increased number of flowers in general, but only in the second year, while number of fruits increased in low‐latitude populations the first year. Prolonged warming leads to an increase in both number of leaves and flowers over time. While reproduction shows varying and regional responses to warming, impacts on plant growth, especially in high‐latitude populations, have more profound effects. Such effects could lead to changes in plant community composition with increased abundance of fast‐growing plants with larger leaves and more clones, affecting plant competition and ecological functions such as decomposition and nutrient retention. Effects of warming were highly context dependent; thus, we encourage further use of warming experiments to predict changes in growth, reproduction, and community composition across wetland types and climate gradients targeting different plant forms.     

Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Global Warming in the Tibetan Plateau during the Last 50 Years Based on a Generalised Temperature Zone - Elevation Model

Temperature is one of the primary factors influencing the climate and ecosystem, and examining its change and fluctuation could elucidate the formation of novel climate patterns and trends. In this study, we constructed a generalised temperature zone elevation model (GTEM) to assess the trends of climate change and temporal-spatial differences in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) using the annual and monthly mean temperatures from 1961–2010 at 144 meteorological stations in and near the TP. The results showed the following: (1) The TP has undergone robust warming over the study period, and the warming rate was 0.318°C/decade. The warming has accelerated during recent decades, especially in the last 20 years, and the warming has been most significant in the winter months, followed by the spring, autumn and summer seasons. (2) Spatially, the zones that became significantly smaller were the temperature zones of −6°C and −4°C, and these have decreased 499.44 and 454.26 thousand sq km from 1961 to 2010 at average rates of 25.1% and 11.7%, respectively, over every 5-year interval. These quickly shrinking zones were located in the northwestern and central TP. (3) The elevation dependency of climate warming existed in the TP during 1961–2010, but this tendency has gradually been weakening due to more rapid warming at lower elevations than in the middle and upper elevations of the TP during 1991–2010. The higher regions and some low altitude valleys of the TP were the most significantly warming regions under the same categorizing criteria. Experimental evidence shows that the GTEM is an effective method to analyse climate changes in high altitude mountainous regions.     

The core interthreshold zone during exposure to red and blue light

Background

This study tested the hypothesis that the core interthreshold zone (CIZ) changes during exposure to red or blue light via the non-visual pathway, because it is known that light intensity affects the central nervous system. We conducted a series of human experiments with 5 or 10 male subjects in each experiment.

Methods

The air temperature in the climatic chamber was maintained at 20 to 24°C. The subjects wore suits perfused with 25°C water at a rate of 600 cm³/min. They exercised on an ergometer at 50% of their maximum work rate for 10 to 15 minutes until sweating commenced, and then remained continuously seated without exercise until their oxygen uptake increased. The rectal temperature and skin temperatures at four sites were monitored using thermistors. The sweating rate was measured at the forehead with a sweat rate monitor. Oxygen uptake was monitored with a gas analyzer. The subjects were exposed to red or blue light at 500 lx and 1000 lx in both summer and winter.

Results

The mean CIZs at 500 lx were 0.23 ± 0.16°C under red light and 0.20 ± 0.10°C under blue light in the summer, and 0.19 ± 0.20°C under red light and 0.26 ± 0.24°C under blue light in the winter. The CIZs at 1000 lx were 0.18 ± 0.14°C under red light and 0.15 ± 0.20°C under blue light in the summer, and 0.52 ± 0.18°C under red light and 0.71 ± 0.28°C under blue light in the winter. A significant difference (P <0.05) was observed in the CIZs between red and blue light at 1000 lx in the winter, and significant seasonal differences under red light (P <0.05) and blue light (P <0.01) were also observed at 1000 lx.

Conclusions

The present study demonstrated that dynamic changes in the physiological effects of colors of light on autonomic functions via the non-visual pathway may be associated with the temperature regulation system.     

Temperature,but not pH,compromises sea urchin fertilization and early development under near-future climate change scenarios

Global warming is causing ocean warming and acidification. The distribution of Heliocidaris erythrogramma coincides with the eastern Australia climate change hot spot, where disproportionate warming makes marine biota particularly vulnerable to climate change. In keeping with near-future climate change scenarios, we determined the interactive effects of warming and acidification on fertilization and development of this echinoid. Experimental treatments (20–26°C, pH 7.6–8.2) were tested in all combinations for the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, with 20°C/pH 8.2 being ambient. Percentage of fertilization was high (>89%) across all treatments. There was no difference in percentage of normal development in any pH treatment. In elevated temperature conditions, +4°C reduced cleavage by 40 per cent and +6°C by a further 20 per cent. Normal gastrulation fell below 4 per cent at +6°C. At 26°C, development was impaired. As the first study of interactive effects of temperature and pH on sea urchin development, we confirm the thermotolerance and pH resilience of fertilization and embryogenesis within predicted climate change scenarios, with negative effects at upper limits of ocean warming. Our findings place single stressor studies in context and emphasize the need for experiments that address ocean warming and acidification concurrently. Although ocean acidification research has focused on impaired calcification, embryos may not reach the skeletogenic stage in a warm ocean.     

Generation of Live Piglets from Cryopreserved Oocytes for the First Time Using a Defined System for In Vitro Embryo Production

We report the successful piglet production from cryopreserved oocytes for the first time by using a simple, high capacity vitrification protocol for preservation and a defined system for in vitro embryo production. Immature cumulus-oocyte complexes (COCs) from prepubertal gilts were vitrified in microdrops and stored in liquid nitrogen. After warming, COCs were subjected to in vitro maturation (IVM), fertilization (IVF), and subsequent culture (IVC). Adjusting warmplate temperature to 42°C during warming prevented temperature drops in a medium below 34.0°C and significantly increased the percentage of oocyte survival and thus blastocyst yields obtained from total vitrified oocytes compared with that of warming at 38°C (87.1% vs 66.9% and 4.4% vs 2.7%, respectively). Nuclear maturation and fertilization of oocytes were not affected by vitrification and warming temperature. Blastocyst development on day 7 (day 0 = IVF) of the surviving oocytes after warming at 38°C and 42°C was not different but lower (P<0.05) than those of non-vitrified control oocytes (4.6%, 5.2% and 17.9%, respectively). However, blastocyst cell numbers in the control and vitrified groups were similar irrespective of warming temperature. Omitting porcine follicular fluid (pFF) from IVM medium (POM) did not affect maturation, fertilization and embryo development of vitrified-warmed oocytes. Transfer of blastocysts obtained on day 5 from vitrified oocytes matured either with or without pFF into 4 recipients (2 for each group) resulted in 4 pregnancies and the delivery of a total of 18 piglets. In conclusion, optimization of warming temperature was a key factor for achieving high survival rates, and surviving oocytes could be utilized in vitro using defined media. Using these modifications, live piglets could be obtained from cryopreserved oocytes for the first time.     

Effects of a warmer climate on seed germination in the subarctic

Background and Aims

In a future warmer subarctic climate, the soil temperatures experienced by dispersed seeds are likely to increase during summer but may decrease during winter due to expected changes in snow depth, duration and quality. Because little is known about the dormancy-breaking and germination requirements of subarctic species, how warming may influence the timing and level of germination in these species was examined.

Methods

Under controlled conditions, how colder winter and warmer summer soil temperatures influenced germination was tested in 23 subarctic species. The cold stratification and warm incubation temperatures were derived from real soil temperature measurements in subarctic tundra and the temperatures were gradually changed over time to simulate different months of the year.

Key Results

Moderate summer warming (+2·5 °C) substantially accelerated germination in all but four species but did not affect germination percentages. Optimum germination temperatures (20/10°C) further decreased germination time and increased germination percentages in three species. Colder winter soil temperatures delayed the germination in ten species and decreased the germination percentage in four species, whereas the opposite was found in Silene acaulis. In most species, the combined effect of a reduced snow cover and summer warming resulted in earlier germination and thus a longer first growing season, which improves the chance of seedling survival. In particular the recruitment of (dwarf) shrubs (Vaccinium myrtillus, V. vitis-idaea, Betula nana), trees (Alnus incana, Betula pubescens) and grasses (Calamagrostis lapponica, C. purpurea) is likely to benefit from a warmer subarctic climate.

Conclusions

Seedling establishment is expected to improve in a future warmer subarctic climate, mainly by considerably earlier germination. The magnitudes of the responses are species-specific, which should be taken into account when modelling population growth and migration of subarctic species.Key words: Climate change, cold stratification, dwarf shrubs, germination percentage, incubation temperature, mean germination time, seedling establishment, seeds, Silene, subarctic species, Vaccinium, warming     

Demographic Amplification of Climate Change Experienced by the Contiguous United States Population during the 20th Century

Better understanding of the changing relationship between human populations and climate is a global research priority. The 20^th century in the contiguous United States offers a particularly well-documented example of human demographic expansion during a period of radical socioeconomic and environmental change. One would expect that as human society has been transformed by technology, we would become increasingly decoupled from climate and more dependent on social infrastructure. Here we use spatially-explicit models to evaluate climatic, socio-economic and biophysical correlates of demographic change in the contiguous United States between 1900 and 2000. Climate-correlated variation in population growth has caused the U.S. population to shift its realized climate niche from cool, seasonal climates to warm, aseasonal climates. As a result, the average annual temperature experienced by U.S. citizens between 1920 and 2000 has increased by more than 1.5°C and the temperature seasonality has decreased by 1.1°C during a century when climate change accounted for only a 0.24°C increase in average annual temperature and a 0.15°C decrease in temperature seasonality. Thus, despite advancing technology, climate-correlated demographics continue to be a major feature of contemporary U.S. society. Unfortunately, these demographic patterns are contributing to a substantial warming of the climate niche during a period of rapid environmental warming, making an already bad situation worse.     

Impaired Control of Body Cooling during Heterothermia Represents the Major Energetic Constraint in an Aging Non-Human Primate Exposed to Cold

Daily heterothermia is used by small mammals for energy and water savings, and seems to be preferentially exhibited during winter rather than during summer. This feature induces a trade-off between the energy saved during daily heterothermia and the energy cost of arousal, which can impact energy balance and survival under harsh environmental conditions. Especially, aging may significantly affect such trade off during cold-induced energy stress, but direct evidences are still lacking. We hypothesized that aging could alter the energetics of daily heterothermia, and that the effects could differ according to season. In the gray mouse lemur (Microcebus murinus), a non-human primate species which exhibits daily heterothermia, we investigated the effects of exposures to 25 and 12°C on body composition, energy balance, patterns of heterothermia and water turnover in adult (N = 8) and aged animals (N = 7) acclimated to winter-like or summer-like photoperiods.Acclimation to summer prevented animals from deep heterothermia, even during aging. During winter, adult animals at 12°C and aged animals at 25°C exhibited low levels of energy expenditure with minor modulations of heterothermia. The major effects of cold were observed during winter, and were particularly pronounced in aged mouse lemurs which exhibited deep heterothermia phases. Body composition was not significantly affected by age and could not explain the age-related differences in heterothermia patterns. However, aging was associated with increased levels of energy expenditure during cold exposure, in concomitance with impaired energy balance. Interestingly, increased energy expenditure and depth of heterothermia phases were strongly correlated.In conclusion, it appeared that the exhibition of shallow heterothermia allowed energy savings during winter in adult animals only. Aged animals exhibited deep heterothermia and increased levels of energy expenditure, impairing energy balance. Thus, an impaired control of the heterothermic process induced high energy costs in the aging mouse lemur exposed to cold.     

Multiple coping strategies maintain stability of a small mammal population in a resource‐restricted environment

In semi‐arid environments, aperiodic rainfall pulses determine plant production and resource availability for higher trophic levels, creating strong bottom‐up regulation. The influence of climatic factors on population vital rates often shapes the dynamics of small mammal populations in such resource‐restricted environments. Using a 21‐year biannual capture–recapture dataset (1993 to 2014), we examined the impacts of climatic factors on the population dynamics of the brush mouse (Peromyscus boylii) in semi‐arid oak woodland of coastal‐central California. We applied Pradel''s temporal symmetry model to estimate capture probability (p), apparent survival (φ), recruitment (f), and realized population growth rate (λ) of the brush mouse and examined the effects of temperature, rainfall, and El Niño on these demographic parameters. The population was stable during the study period with a monthly realized population growth rate of 0.993 ± SE 0.032, but growth varied over time from 0.680 ± 0.054 to 1.450 ± 0.083. Monthly survival estimates averaged 0.789 ± 0.005 and monthly recruitment estimates averaged 0.175 ± 0.038. Survival probability and realized population growth rate were positively correlated with rainfall and negatively correlated with temperature. In contrast, recruitment was negatively correlated with rainfall and positively correlated with temperature. Brush mice maintained their population through multiple coping strategies, with high recruitment during warmer and drier periods and higher survival during cooler and wetter conditions. Although climatic change in coastal‐central California will likely favor recruitment over survival, varying strategies may serve as a mechanism by which brush mice maintain resilience in the face of climate change. Our results indicate that rainfall and temperature are both important drivers of brush mouse population dynamics and will play a significant role in predicting the future viability of brush mice under a changing climate.     

Large Impacts of Climatic Warming on Growth of Boreal Forests since 1960

Boreal forests are sensitive to climatic warming, because low temperatures hold back ecosystem processes, such as the mobilization of nitrogen in soils. A greening of the boreal landscape has been observed using remote sensing, and the seasonal amplitude of CO₂ in the northern hemisphere has increased, indicating warming effects on ecosystem productivity. However, field observations on responses of ecosystem productivity have been lacking on a large sub-biome scale. Here we report a significant increase in the annual growth of boreal forests in Finland in response to climatic warming, especially since 1990. This finding is obtained by linking meteorological records and forest inventory data on an area between 60° and 70° northern latitude. An additional increase in growth has occurred in response to changes in other drivers, such as forest management, nitrogen deposition and/or CO₂ concentration. A similar warming impact can be expected in the entire boreal zone, where warming takes place. Given the large size of the boreal biome – more than ten million km²– important climate feedbacks are at stake, such as the future carbon balance, transpiration and albedo.