Continent‐level drivers of African pyrodiversity

Pyrodiversity, which describes fire variability over space and time, is believed to increase habitat heterogeneity and thereby promote biodiversity. However, to date there is no standardised metric for quantifying pyrodiversity, and so broad geographic patterns and drivers of pyrodiversity remain unexplored. We present the first generalizable method to quantify pyrodiversity, and use it to address the fundamental questions of what drives pyrodiversity, which fire attributes constrain pyrodiversity under different conditions, and whether pyrodiversity is spatial grain‐dependent. We linked the MODIS burned area and active fire products to measure fire size, seasonal timing, return interval, and intensity for 2.2 million individual fires in sub‐Saharan Africa from 2000–2015. We then quantified pyrodiversity as a four‐dimensional hypervolume described by fire attributes within a grid cell, for any spatial grain of analysis. Environmental (rainfall, vegetation, soils, and topography) and human‐associated (cattle biomass, cropland area, and human population density) variables were assessed as potential drivers of pyrodiversity. Rainfall was the main environmental driver of pyrodiversity, with higher pyrodiversity in drier regions (< 650 mm yr^–1). Pyrodiversity was not strongly associated with human‐associated variables across Africa. Rainfall and a human influence index had clear but contrasting effects on the variability of fire size, seasonal timing, return interval, and intensity. Our analyses show that fire size and seasonal timing constrain pyrodiversity in wetter regions, whereas none of the fire attributes pose a strong constraint in drier regions. We found no evidence that pyrodiversity was spatial grain‐dependent when recalculated at 5‐minute grain increments from 15 to 120 minutes. We hypothesise that the strongest positive effect of pyrodiversity on biodiversity in all its forms will occur at intermediate precipitation (650–1300 mm yr^–1), where fire plays an important role in shaping vegetation structure and where pyrodiversity is still quite high.     

Fire and the relative roles of weather,climate and landscape characteristics in the Great Lakes‐St. Lawrence forest of Canada

Question: In deciduous‐dominated forest landscapes, what are the relative roles of fire weather, climate, human and biophysical landscape characteristics for explaining variation in large fire occurrence and area burned? Location: The Great Lakes‐St. Lawrence forest of Canada. Methods: We characterized the recent (1959–1999) regime of large (≥ 200 ha) fires in 26 deciduous‐dominated landscapes and analysed these data in an information‐theoretic framework to compare six hypotheses that related fire occurrence and area burned to fire weather severity, climate normals, population and road densities, and enduring landscape characteristics such as surficial deposits and large lakes. Results: 392 large fires burned 833 698 ha during the study period, annually burning on average 0.07%± 0.42% of forested area in each landscape. Fire activity was strongly seasonal, with most fires and area burned occurring in May and June. A combination of antecedent‐winter precipitation, fire season precipitation deficit/surplus and percent of landscape covered by well‐drained surficial deposits best explained fire occurrence and area burned. Fire occurrence varied only as a function of fire weather and climate variables, whereas area burned was also explained by percent cover of aspen and pine stands, human population density and two enduring characteristics: percent cover of large water bodies and glaciofluvial deposits. Conclusion: Understanding the relative role of these variables may help design adaptation strategies for forecasted increases in fire weather severity by allowing (1) prioritization of landscapes according to enduring characteristics and (2) management of their composition so that substantially increased fire activity would be necessary to transform landscape structure and composition.     

Long-Term Persistence and Fire Resilience of Oak Shrubfields in Dry Conifer Forests of Northern New Mexico

Extensive high-severity fires are creating large shrubfields in many dry conifer forests of the interior western USA, raising concerns about forest-to-shrub conversion. This study evaluates the role of disturbance in shrubfield formation, maintenance and succession in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico. We compared the environmental conditions of extant Gambel oak (Quercus gambelii) shrubfields with adjoining dry conifer forests and used dendroecological methods to determine the multi-century fire history and successional dynamics of five of the largest shrubfields (76–340 ha). Across the study area, 349 shrubfields (5–368 ha) occur in similar topographic and climate settings as dry conifer forests. This suggests disturbance, rather than other biophysical factors, may explain their origins and persistence. Gambel oak ages and tree-ring fire scars in our sampled shrubfields indicate they historically (1664–1899) burned concurrently with adjoining conifer forests and have persisted for over 115 years in the absence of fire. Aerial imagery from 1935 confirmed almost no change in sampled shrubfield patch sizes or boundaries over the twentieth century. The largest shrubfield we identified is less than 4% the size of the largest conifer-depleted and substantially shrub-dominated area recently formed in the Jemez following extensive high-severity wildfires, indicating considerable departure from historical patterns and processes. Projected hotter droughts and increasingly large high-severity fires could trigger more forest-to-shrub transitions and maintain existing shrubfields, inhibiting conifer forest recovery. Restoration of surface fire regimes and associated historical forest structures likely could reduce the rate and patch size of dry conifer forests being converted to shrubfields.     

The relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic factors in the decline of obligate seeder forests

Forests that regenerate exclusively from seed following high‐severity fire are particularly vulnerable to local extinction if fire frequency leaves insufficient time for regenerating plants to reach sexual maturity. We evaluate the relative importance of extrinsic (such as fire weather and climate cycles) and intrinsic (such as proneness to fire due to stand age and structural development) factors in driving the decline of obligate seeder forests. We illustrate this using obligate seeding alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis) forests in the montane regions of Victoria, Australia, that were burnt by megafires in 2003 (142,256 ha) or 2007 (79,902 ha), including some twice‐burnt areas (11,599 ha). Geospatial analyses showed only a small effect of stand age on the remote sensing estimates of crown defoliation, but a substantial effect of forest fire weather, as measured by forest fire danger index (FFDI). Analysis of meteorological data over the last century showed that 5‐year increases in FFDI precede cycle major fires in the E. delegatensis forests. Such strong extrinsic climate/weather driving of high‐severity fires is consistent with the ‘interval squeeze model’ that postulates the vulnerability of obligate seeder forests to landscape‐scale demographic collapse in response to worsening fire weather under climate change.     

Fire-Regime Disruption and Pine-Oak Forest Structure in the Sierra Madre Occidental, Durango, Mexico

Fire is a common but poorly understood disturbance in the forested ecosystems of the Sierra Madre Occidental of Mexico. In this study, fire history, forest structure (density, species composition, regeneration, forest floor fuels, herbaceous cover, and age of pines), and the dendrochronological tree-ring record were measured at two unharvested 70-ha pine-oak sites near Ojito de Camellones, Durango, Mexico. Study sites were matched in slope, aspect, elevation, slope position, and plant composition, but they differed in fire history since 1945 and in forest structure. The long-term mean fire intervals (MFI) for all fires at both sites up to 1945 were similar—4.0 years at Site 1 (1744–1945) and 4.1 years at Site 2 (1815–1945)—but Site 1 burned only three times at the site margins since 1945 while Site 2 had 9 fires that scarred two or more sample trees and 15 total fires since 1945. Density measurements and age and diameter distributions showed that Site 1 was dominated by numerous, younger, smaller trees (mean total basal area of 23.4 m²/ha and 2730 trees/ha), while Site 2 had fewer, older, larger trees (basal area of 37.2 m²/ha, 647 trees/ha). Large, rotten fuel loading and duff depth were also greater at Site 1. Because regeneration averaged 6200 stems/ha at Site 1 and 8730 stems/ha at Site 2 (no significant difference), forest density at Site 2 was not limited by regeneration capability. The distributions of overstory diameter and pine age at both sites indicate that tree establishment occurred in pulses, with the largest cohort of trees establishing at Site 1 following the 1945 fire. The dense regeneration and heavy fuel accumulation at Site 1 are likely to support a switch from the former low-intensity fire regime to a high-intensity, stand-replacing fire across the site when the next suitable combination of ignition and weather occurs. Baseline quantitative information on fire frequency and ecological effects is essential to guide conservation or restoration of Madrean forests and may prove valuable for restoration of related fire-dependent ecosystems that have experienced extended fire exclusion elsewhere in North America.     

Pyrodiversity begets plant–pollinator community diversity

Fire has a major impact on the structure and function of many ecosystems globally. Pyrodiversity, the diversity of fires within a region (where diversity is based on fire characteristics such as extent, severity, and frequency), has been hypothesized to promote biodiversity, but changing climate and land management practices have eroded pyrodiversity. To assess whether changes in pyrodiversity will have impacts on ecological communities, we must first understand the mechanisms that might enable pyrodiversity to sustain biodiversity, and how such changes might interact with other disturbances such as drought. Focusing on plant–pollinator communities in mixed‐conifer forest with frequent fire in Yosemite National Park, California, we examine how pyrodiversity, combined with drought intensity, influences those communities. We find that pyrodiversity is positively related to the richness of the pollinators, flowering plants, and plant–pollinator interactions. On average, a 5% increase in pyrodiversity led to the gain of approximately one pollinator and one flowering plant species and nearly two interactions. We also find that a diversity of fire characteristics contributes to the spatial heterogeneity (β‐diversity) of plant and pollinator communities. Lastly, we find evidence that fire diversity buffers pollinator communities against the effects of drought‐induced floral resource scarcity. Fire diversity is thus important for the maintenance of flowering plant and pollinator diversity and predicted shifts in fire regimes to include less pyrodiversity compounded with increasing drought occurrence will negatively influence the richness of these communities in this and other forested ecosystems. In addition, lower heterogeneity of fire severity may act to reduce spatial turnover of plant–pollinator communities. The heterogeneity of community composition is a primary determinant of the total species diversity present in a landscape, and thus, lower pyrodiversity may negatively affect the richness of plant–pollinator communities across large spatial scales.     

Climatic change and fire potential in South-Central British Columbia, Canada

The incidence and severity of forest fires are linked to the interaction between climate, fuel and topography. Increased warming and drying in the future is expected to have a significant impact on the risk of forest fire occurrence. An increase in fire risk is linked to the synchronous relationship between climate and fuel moisture conditions. A warmer, drier climate will lead to drier forest fuels that will in turn increase the chance of successful fire ignition and propagation. This interaction will increase the severity of fire weather, which, in turn, will increase the risk of extreme fire behaviour. A warmer climate will also extend fire season length, which will increase the likelihood of fires occurring over a greater proportion of the year. In this study of the North Okanagan area of British Columbia, Canada, the impacts of climate change of fire potential were evaluated using the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System and multiple climate scenario analysis. Utilizing this approach, a 30% increase in fire season length was modelled to occur by 2070. In addition, statistically significant increases in fire severity and fire behaviour were also modelled. Fire weather severity was predicted to increase by 95% during the summer months by 2070 while fire behaviour was predicted to shift from surface fire‐intermittent crown fire regimes to a predominantly intermittent‐full crown fire regime by 2070 onwards. An increase in fire season length, fire weather severity and fire behaviour will increase the costs of fire suppression and the risk of property and resource loss while limiting human‐use within vulnerable forest landscapes. An increase in fire weather severity and fire behaviour over a greater proportion of the season will increase the risks faced by ecosystems and biodiversity to climatic change and increase the costs and difficulty of achieving sustainable forest management.     

Spatial and temporal variation in historic fire regimes in subalpine forests across the Colorado Front Range in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA

Aim The historical variability of fire regimes must be understood in the context of drivers of the occurrence of fire operating at a range of spatial scales from local site conditions to broad‐scale climatic variation. In the present study we examine fire history and variations in the fire regime at multiple spatial and temporal scales for subalpine forests of Engelmann spruce–subalpine fir (Picea engelmannii, Abies lasiocarpa) and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) of the southern Rocky Mountains. Location The study area is the subalpine zone of spruce–fir and lodgepole pine forests in the southern sector of Rocky Mountain National Park (ROMO), Colorado, USA, which straddles the continental divide of the northern Colorado Front Range (40°20′ N and 105°40′ W). Methods We used a combination of dendroecological and Geographic Information System methods to reconstruct fire history, including fire year, severity and extent at the forest patch level, for c. 30,000 ha of subalpine forest. We aggregated fire history information at appropriate spatial scales to test for drivers of the fire regime at local, meso, and regional scales. Results The fire histories covered c. 30,000 ha of forest and were based on a total of 676 partial cross‐sections of fire‐scarred trees and 6152 tree‐core age samples. The subalpine forest fire regime of ROMO is dominated by infrequent, extensive, stand‐replacing fire events, whereas surface fires affected only 1–3% of the forested area. Main conclusions Local‐scale influences on fire regimes are reflected by differences in the relative proportions of stands of different ages between the lodgepole pine and spruce–fir forest types. Lodgepole pine stands all originated following fires in the last 400 years; in contrast, large areas of spruce–fir forests consisted of stands not affected by fire in the past 400 years. Meso‐scale influences on fire regimes are reflected by fewer but larger fires on the west vs. east side of the continental divide. These differences appear to be explained by less frequent and severe drought on the west side, and by the spread of fires from lower‐elevation mixed‐conifer montane forests on the east side. Regional‐scale climatic variation is the primary driver of infrequent, large fire events, but its effects are modulated by local‐ and meso‐scale abiotic and biotic factors. The low incidence of fire during the period of fire‐suppression policy in the twentieth century is not unique in comparison with the previous 300 years of fire history. There is no evidence that fire suppression has resulted in either the fire regime or current forest conditions being outside their historic ranges of variability during the past 400 years. Furthermore, in the context of fuel treatments to reduce fire hazard, regardless of restoration goals, the association of extremely large and severe fires with infrequent and exceptional drought calls into question the future effectiveness of tree thinning to mitigate fire hazard in the subalpine zone.     

Transformation of the ground cover after surface fires and estimation of pyrogenic carbon emissions in the dark-coniferous forests of Central Siberia

Ground fuel loads and structure in dark-coniferous forests with the dominance of Siberian pine have been studied in the Central Siberian State Nature Biosphere Reserve located in the central-taiga zone of Central Siberia. The impacts of surface fires of various forms and severity on the living ground cover are examined. It is found that fires of low to moderate severity reduce ground fuel loads from 35–49 t/ha to 26–28 t/ha, while fires of moderate to high severity reduce them to 17–18 t/ha. Consumption of down woody debris varies from 3 to 29 t/ha, depending on the prefire fuel characteristics and fire form and severity. Steady fires spreading with the fire danger index PV-1 of 3919 ± 482 result in carbon emissions of 14.0 tC/ha from fires of low to moderate severity and 24.6 tC/ha from fires of moderate to high severity. The lowest carbon emissions (10.1 tC/ha) are noted for fast-moving fires spreading with PV-1 of 1167 ± 386.     

Historic variability in fire‐generated landscape heterogeneity of subalpine forests in the Canadian Rockies

Question: This study evaluates historical changes in landscape structure and heterogeneity in subalpine forests. We use response to severe fires in 2001 and 2003, along with historical reconstructions to examine crown‐fire effects on landscape heterogeneity and to assess, comparatively, effects of fire exclusion management in the 20th century. Location: Subalpine forests of Kootenay National Park (KNP), Canadian Rockies. Methods: Using a landscape‐level model based on a fire‐origin stand age map, we reconstructed decadal burned areas within the landscape for 1750‐2000 (forming reconstructed landscapes). Landscape pattern was analysed for each reconstructed landscape map, and we compared landscape pattern indices (total area, number of patches, mean patch area, patch area variation, largest patch index, edge density, perimeter–area ratio, landscape shape index) with those in 2005 after recent large fires. Results: After large fires in 1926, connectivity of the KNP landscape increased and its diversity was quite low. After 2001 and 2003 fires, the post‐fire landscape of 2005 was highly heterogeneous in terms of size, variation, edge density and perimeter–area ratio of the remnant forest patches. Since the decline in occurrence of large fires after 1926 reflected a period of wet weather, fuel build‐up resulting from landscape homogenization within the 20th century landscape could not be attributed solely to fire exclusion. This period without fires greatly enhanced connectivity of late‐successional forests that finally burned in 2001/2003, but connectivity was within the historical range for these forests. The gradual increase in stand connectivity before recent large fires may indicate that fire exclusion was less responsible than often believed for fuel build‐up in these fire‐susceptible older forests. Conclusions: The large fires at the beginning of the 21st century are within the natural range of disturbances for this landscape, and do not stand out as “human‐induced disasters” in their effects on landscape patterns. Such stochastic large disturbances contribute to maintenance of highly heterogeneous landscape structure, which is important for many taxa and natural ecological processes. Identifying future probability of such large disturbances and their ecological roles should be incorporated into management of these dynamic, disturbance‐prone systems.     

Historical,Observed, and Modeled Wildfire Severity in Montane Forests of the Colorado Front Range

Large recent fires in the western U.S. have contributed to a perception that fire exclusion has caused an unprecedented occurrence of uncharacteristically severe fires, particularly in lower elevation dry pine forests. In the absence of long-term fire severity records, it is unknown how short-term trends compare to fire severity prior to 20^th century fire exclusion. This study compares historical (i.e. pre-1920) fire severity with observed modern fire severity and modeled potential fire behavior across 564,413 ha of montane forests of the Colorado Front Range. We used forest structure and tree-ring fire history to characterize fire severity at 232 sites and then modeled historical fire-severity across the entire study area using biophysical variables. Eighteen (7.8%) sites were characterized by low-severity fires and 214 (92.2%) by mixed-severity fires (i.e. including moderate- or high-severity fires). Difference in area of historical versus observed low-severity fire within nine recent (post-1999) large fire perimeters was greatest in lower montane forests. Only 16% of the study area recorded a shift from historical low severity to a higher potential for crown fire today. An historical fire regime of more frequent and low-severity fires at low elevations (<2260 m) supports a convergence of management goals of ecological restoration and fire hazard mitigation in those habitats. In contrast, at higher elevations mixed-severity fires were predominant historically and continue to be so today. Thinning treatments at higher elevations of the montane zone will not return the fire regime to an historic low-severity regime, and are of questionable effectiveness in preventing severe wildfires. Based on present-day fuels, predicted fire behavior under extreme fire weather continues to indicate a mixed-severity fire regime throughout most of the montane forest zone. Recent large wildfires in the Front Range are not fundamentally different from similar events that occurred historically under extreme weather conditions.     

Fire disturbance and forest structure in old‐growth mixed conifer forests in the northern Sierra Nevada,California

Question: This study evaluates how fire regimes influence stand structure and dynamics in old‐growth mixed conifer forests across a range of environmental settings. Location: A 2000‐ha area of mixed conifer forest on the west shore of Lake Tahoe in the northern Sierra Nevada, California. Methods: We quantified the age, size, and spatial structure of trees in 12 mixed conifer stands distributed across major topographic gradients. Fire history was reconstructed in each stand using fire scar dendrochronology. The influence of fire on stand structure was assessed by comparing the fire history with the age, size, and spatial structure of trees in a stand. Results: There was significant variation in species composition among stands, but not in the size, age and spatial patterning of trees. Stands had multiple size and age classes with clusters of similar aged trees occurring at scales of 113 ‐ 254 m². The frequency and severity of fires was also similar, and stands burned with low to moderate severity in the dormant season on average every 9–17 years. Most fires were not synchronized among stands except in very dry years. No fires have burned since ca. 1880. Conclusions: Fire and forest structure interact to perpetuate similar stand characteristics across a range of environmental settings. Fire occurrence is controlled primarily by spatial variation in fuel mosaics (e.g. patterns of abundance, fuel moisture, forest structure), but regional drought synchronizes fire in some years. Fire exclusion over the last 120 years has caused compositional and structural shifts in these mixed conifer forests.     

Climate change and wildfires in Russia

The effect of climate change on the distribution, intensity, and transforming role of wild fires is considered. A general overview of the current wild fire regimes (WRs) and impacts on forest ecosystems and environment is provided. One distinctive feature of WRs is the increasing frequency of disastrous wild fires. The application of various remote sensing instruments has shown that the average vegetation wild fire area in Russia for 1998–2010 accounted for 8.2 ± 0.8 × 10⁶ ha, with about two-thirds of wildfires occurring on forest lands and half on the forested lands. The average annual fire carbon balance during the above period was 121 ± 28 Tg C yr^?1, including 92 ± 18 Tg C yr^?1 emitted from the forested land. The forecasts based on the General Circulation Models suggest the dramatic acceleration of fire regimes by the end of the 21st century. Taking into account the increase in the dryness of the climate and the thawing of permafrost, this will likely lead to a dramatic loss of forested area and the impoverishment of the forest cover over a major part of the forest zone. A transition to adaptive forestry would allow a substantial decrease of the expected losses. This paper takes a brief look at the general principals of adapting forest fire protection system to climate change, which is considered an integral part of the transition to sustainable forest management in Russia.     

Nonlinear dynamics of fires in Africa over recent decades controlled by precipitation

Dynamics of fires in Africa are of critical importance for understanding changes in ecosystem properties and effects on the global carbon cycle. Given increasing fire risk from projected warming on the one hand and a documented human‐driven decline in fires on the other, it is still unknown how the complex interplay between climate and human factors affects recent changes of fires in Africa. Moreover, the impact of recent strong El Niño events on fire dynamics is not yet known. By applying an ensemble empirical mode decomposition method to satellite‐derived fire burned area, we investigated the spatio‐temporal evolution of fires in Africa over 2001–2016 and identified the potential dominant drivers. Our results show an overall decline of fire rates, which is continuous over the time period and mainly caused by cropland expansion in northern sub‐Saharan Africa. However, we also find that years of high precipitation have caused an initial increase in fire rates in southern Africa, which reversed to a decline in later years. This decline is caused by a high frequency of dry years leading to very low fuel loads, suggesting that recent drought causes a general reduction of burned areas, in particular in xeric savannas. In some mesic regions (10°–15°S), solar radiation and increased temperature caused increase in fires. These findings show that climate change overrules the impact of human expansion on fire rates at the continental scale in Africa, reducing the fire risk.     

Climatic and Landscape Influences on Fire Regimes from 1984 to 2010 in the Western United States

An improved understanding of the relative influences of climatic and landscape controls on multiple fire regime components is needed to enhance our understanding of modern fire regimes and how they will respond to future environmental change. To address this need, we analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns of fire occurrence, size, and severity of large fires (> 405 ha) in the western United States from 1984–2010. We assessed the associations of these fire regime components with environmental variables, including short-term climate anomalies, vegetation type, topography, and human influences, using boosted regression tree analysis. Results showed that large fire occurrence, size, and severity each exhibited distinctive spatial and spatio-temporal patterns, which were controlled by different sets of climate and landscape factors. Antecedent climate anomalies had the strongest influences on fire occurrence, resulting in the highest spatial synchrony. In contrast, climatic variability had weaker influences on fire size and severity and vegetation types were the most important environmental determinants of these fire regime components. Topography had moderately strong effects on both fire occurrence and severity, and human influence variables were most strongly associated with fire size. These results suggest a potential for the emergence of novel fire regimes due to the responses of fire regime components to multiple drivers at different spatial and temporal scales. Next-generation approaches for projecting future fire regimes should incorporate indirect climate effects on vegetation type changes as well as other landscape effects on multiple components of fire regimes.     

Wildfire refugia in forests: Severe fire weather and drought mute the influence of topography and fuel age

Wildfire refugia (unburnt patches within large wildfires) are important for the persistence of fire‐sensitive species across forested landscapes globally. A key challenge is to identify the factors that determine the distribution of fire refugia across space and time. In particular, determining the relative influence of climatic and landscape factors is important in order to understand likely changes in the distribution of wildfire refugia under future climates. Here, we examine the relative effect of weather (i.e. fire weather, drought severity) and landscape features (i.e. topography, fuel age, vegetation type) on the occurrence of fire refugia across 26 large wildfires in south‐eastern Australia. Fire weather and drought severity were the primary drivers of the occurrence of fire refugia, moderating the effect of landscape attributes. Unburnt patches rarely occurred under ‘severe’ fire weather, irrespective of drought severity, topography, fuels or vegetation community. The influence of drought severity and landscape factors played out most strongly under ‘moderate’ fire weather. In mesic forests, fire refugia were linked to variables that affect fuel moisture, whereby the occurrence of unburnt patches decreased with increasing drought conditions and were associated with more mesic topographic locations (i.e. gullies, pole‐facing aspects) and vegetation communities (i.e. closed‐forest). In dry forest, the occurrence of refugia was responsive to fuel age, being associated with recently burnt areas (<5 years since fire). Overall, these results show that increased severity of fire weather and increased drought conditions, both predicted under future climate scenarios, are likely to lead to a reduction of wildfire refugia across forests of southern Australia. Protection of topographic areas able to provide long‐term fire refugia will be an important step towards maintaining the ecological integrity of forests under future climate change.     

Detecting changes in climate forcing on the fire regime of a North American mixed-pine forest: A case study of Seney National Wildlife Refuge,Upper Michigan

The study of forests dominated by red pine (Pinus resinosa Ait.), one of the few fire-resistant tree species of eastern North America, provides an opportunity to reconstruct long-term fire histories and examine the temporal dynamics of climate forcing upon forest fire regimes. We used a 300-year long spatially explicit dendrochronological reconstruction of the fire regime for Seney National Wildlife Refuge (SNWR, 38,531 ha), eastern Upper Michigan to: (1) identify fire size thresholds with strong vs. weak climate controls, (2) evaluate effect of landform type (outwash channel vs. sand ridges) in modifying climate–fire associations, and (3) check for the presence of temporal changes in the climate control of large fire events over the time period 1700–1983. We used a summer drought sensitive red pine chronology (ITRDB code can037) as a proxy of past fire-related climate variability. Results indicated that fires >60 ha in sand-ridge-dominated portions of SNWR and >100 ha in outwash channels were likely climatically driven events. Climate–fire associations varied over time with significant climate–fire linkages observed for the periods 1700–1800 (pre-EuroAmerican), 1800–1900 (EuroAmerican settlement) and 1900–1983 (modern era). Although an increase in fire activity at the turn of 20th century is commonly associated with human sources of ignitions, our results suggest that such an increase was also likely a climatically driven episode.     

Metapopulation dynamics of a beetle species confined to burned forest sites in a managed forest region

Despite increasing awareness of the theoretical importance of habitat dynamics on metapopulations, only a few empirical studies have been conducted. We aimed to increase our understanding of how patch size, dynamics and connectivity affect colonization–extinction dynamics and the occurrence patterns of a beetle (Stephanopachys linearis), which breeds only in burned trees, existing as dynamic habitat patches that have become rare in managed forest landscapes. We assessed species’ presence/absence twice in all known habitat patches (i.e. > 1 ha sites where forest fires had occurred during the previous 2–15 yr) in a 200 × 150 km region of central Sweden, dominated by managed boreal forest. Evaluated over six years, the colonization rate was 47% and the local extinction risk was 65%. Probability of colonization increased with patch size (number of suitable trees in a site) and connectivity to occupied patches within 30 km, and decreased with increasing time since fire. Local extinction risk decreased with habitat patch size but increased, unexpectedly, with connectivity. Occurrence increased with patch size and decreased with increasing time since fire. At a regional scale, S. linearis tracks the fire dynamics by colonising sites with burned trees and by becoming extinct at rates which make the species rare at sites where burnt trees are more than eight years old. In managed boreal forest landscapes, a large proportion of sites may be created by prescribed burning (in our study area: 82%), and consequently human decisions strongly affect the future amount of habitat for fire‐dependent species and its spatial distribution. Stephanopachys linearis uses burned sites more often if more trees are retained and, to some extent, if sites are concentrated in those parts of a region that already support high population densities of the species.     

Consistent spatial scaling of high-severity wildfire can inform expected future patterns of burn severity

Increasing wildfire activity in forests worldwide has driven urgency in understanding current and future fire regimes. Spatial patterns of area burned at high severity strongly shape forest resilience and constitute a key dimension of fire regimes, yet remain difficult to predict. To characterize the range of burn severity patterns expected within contemporary fire regimes, we quantified scaling relationships relating fire size to patterns of burn severity. Using 1615 fires occurring across the Northwest United States between 1985 and 2020, we evaluated scaling relationships within fire regimes and tested whether relationships vary across space and time. Patterns of high-severity fire demonstrate consistent scaling behaviour; as fire size increases, high-severity patches consistently increase in size and homogeneity. Scaling relationships did not differ substantially across space or time at the scales considered here, suggesting that as fire-size distributions potentially shift, stationarity in patch-size scaling can be used to infer future patterns of burn severity.     

Californian mixed-conifer forests under unmanaged fire regimes in the Sierra San Pedro Mártir, Baja California, Mexico

Aim This study appraises historical fire regimes for Californian mixed‐conifer forests of the Sierra San Pedro Mártir (SSPM). The SSPM represents the last remaining mixed‐conifer forest along the Pacific coast still subject to uncontrolled, periodic ground fire. Location The SSPM is a north–south trending fault bound range, centred on 31°N latitude, 100 km SE of Ensenada, Baja California. Methods We surveyed forests for composition, population structure, and historical dynamics both spatially and temporally over the past 65 years using repeat aerial photographs and ground sampling. Fire perimeter history was reconstructed based on time‐series aerial photographs dating from 1942 to 1991 and interpretable back to 1925. A total of 256 1‐ha sites randomly selected from aerial photographs were examined along a chronosequence for density and cover of canopy trees, density of snags and downed logs, and cover of non‐conifer trees and shrubs. Twenty‐four stands were sampled on‐the‐ground by a point‐centred quarter method which yielded data on tree density, basal area, frequency, importance value, and shrub and herb cover. Results Forests experience moderately intense understory fires that range in size to 6400 ha, as well as numerous smaller, low intensity burns with low cumulative spatial extent. SSPM forests average 25–45% cover and 65–145 trees per ha. Sapling densities were two to three times that of overstory trees. Size‐age distributions of trees ≥ 4 cm dbh indicate multi‐age stands with steady‐state dynamics. Stands are similar to Californian mixed conifer forests prior to the imposition of fire suppression policy. Livestock grazing does not appear to be suppressing conifer regeneration. Main conclusions Our spatially‐based reconstruction shows the open forest structure in SSPM to be a product of infrequent, intense surface fires with fire rotation periods of 52 years, rather than frequent, low intensity fires at intervals of 4–20 years proposed from California fire‐scar dendrochronology (FSD) studies. Ground fires in SSPM were intense enough to kill pole‐size trees and a significant number of overstory trees. We attribute long fire intervals to the gradual build‐up of subcontinuous shrub cover, conifer recruitment and litter accumulation. Differences from photo interpretation and FSD estimates are due to assumptions made with respect to site‐based (point) sampling of fire, and nonfractal fire intensities along fire size frequency distributions. Fire return intervals determined by FSD give undue importance to local burns which collectively use up little fuel, cover little area, and have little demographic impact on forests.