Tropical forest recovery from logging: a 24 year silvicultural experiment from Central Africa

Large areas of African moist forests are being logged in the context of supposedly sustainable management plans. It remains however controversial whether harvesting a few trees per hectare can be maintained in the long term while preserving other forest services as well. We used a unique 24 year silvicultural experiment, encompassing 10 4 ha plots established in the Central African Republic, to assess the effect of disturbance linked to logging (two to nine trees ha⁻¹ greater than or equal to 80 cm DBH) and thinning (11–41 trees ha⁻¹ greater than or equal to 50 cm DBH) on the structure and dynamics of the forest. Before silvicultural treatments, above-ground biomass (AGB) and timber stock (i.e. the volume of commercial trees greater than or equal to 80 cm DBH) in the plots amounted 374.5 ± 58.2 Mg ha⁻¹ and 79.7 ± 45.9 m³ ha⁻¹, respectively. We found that (i) natural control forest was increasing in AGB (2.58 ± 1.73 Mg dry mass ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) and decreasing in timber stock (−0.33 ± 1.57 m³ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹); (ii) the AGB recovered very quickly after logging and thinning, at a rate proportional to the disturbance intensity (mean recovery after 24 years: 144%). Compared with controls, the gain almost doubled in the logged plots (4.82 ± 1.22 Mg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹) and tripled in the logged + thinned plots (8.03 ± 1.41 Mg ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹); (iii) the timber stock recovered slowly (mean recovery after 24 years: 41%), at a rate of 0.75 ± 0.51 m³ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in the logged plots, and 0.81 ± 0.74 m³ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ in the logged + thinned plots. Although thinning significantly increased the gain in biomass, it had no effect on the gain in timber stock. However, thinning did foster the growth and survival of small- and medium-sized timber trees and should have a positive effect over the next felling cycle.     

State and evolution of the African rainforests between 1990 and 2010

This paper presents a map of Africa''s rainforests for 2005. Derived from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer data at a spatial resolution of 250 m and with an overall accuracy of 84%, this map provides new levels of spatial and thematic detail. The map is accompanied by measurements of deforestation between 1990, 2000 and 2010 for West Africa, Central Africa and Madagascar derived from a systematic sample of Landsat images—imagery from equivalent platforms is used to fill gaps in the Landsat record. Net deforestation is estimated at 0.28% yr⁻¹ for the period 1990–2000 and 0.14% yr⁻¹ for the period 2000–2010. West Africa and Madagascar exhibit a much higher deforestation rate than the Congo Basin, for example, three times higher for West Africa and nine times higher for Madagascar. Analysis of variance over the Congo Basin is then used to show that expanding agriculture and increasing fuelwood demands are key drivers of deforestation in the region, whereas well-controlled timber exploitation programmes have little or no direct influence on forest-cover reduction at present. Rural and urban population concentrations and fluxes are also identified as strong underlying causes of deforestation in this study.     

Annual Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in the Amazon Basin between 2000 and 2010

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) is considered one of the most cost-effective strategies for mitigating climate change. However, historical deforestation and emission rates―critical inputs for setting reference emission levels for REDD+―are poorly understood. Here we use multi-source, time-series satellite data to quantify carbon emissions from deforestation in the Amazon basin on a year-to-year basis between 2000 and 2010. We first derive annual deforestation indicators by using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Fields (MODIS VCF) product. MODIS indicators are calibrated by using a large sample of Landsat data to generate accurate deforestation rates, which are subsequently combined with a spatially explicit biomass dataset to calculate committed annual carbon emissions. Across the study area, the average deforestation and associated carbon emissions were estimated to be 1.59 ± 0.25 M ha•yr⁻¹ and 0.18 ± 0.07 Pg C•yr⁻¹ respectively, with substantially different trends and inter-annual variability in different regions. Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon increased between 2001 and 2004 and declined substantially afterwards, whereas deforestation in the Bolivian Amazon, the Colombian Amazon, and the Peruvian Amazon increased over the study period. The average carbon density of lost forests after 2005 was 130 Mg C•ha⁻¹, ~11% lower than the average carbon density of remaining forests in year 2010 (144 Mg C•ha⁻¹). Moreover, the average carbon density of cleared forests increased at a rate of 7 Mg C•ha⁻¹•yr⁻¹ from 2005 to 2010, suggesting that deforestation has been progressively encroaching into high-biomass lands in the Amazon basin. Spatially explicit, annual deforestation and emission estimates like the ones derived in this study are useful for setting baselines for REDD+ and other emission mitigation programs, and for evaluating the performance of such efforts.     

Four Decades of Forest Persistence,Clearance and Logging on Borneo

The native forests of Borneo have been impacted by selective logging, fire, and conversion to plantations at unprecedented scales since industrial-scale extractive industries began in the early 1970s. There is no island-wide documentation of forest clearance or logging since the 1970s. This creates an information gap for conservation planning, especially with regard to selectively logged forests that maintain high conservation potential. Analysing LANDSAT images, we estimate that 75.7% (558,060 km²) of Borneo''s area (737,188 km²) was forested around 1973. Based upon a forest cover map for 2010 derived using ALOS-PALSAR and visually reviewing LANDSAT images, we estimate that the 1973 forest area had declined by 168,493 km² (30.2%) in 2010. The highest losses were recorded in Sabah and Kalimantan with 39.5% and 30.7% of their total forest area in 1973 becoming non-forest in 2010, and the lowest in Brunei and Sarawak (8.4%, and 23.1%). We estimate that the combined area planted in industrial oil palm and timber plantations in 2010 was 75,480 km², representing 10% of Borneo. We mapped 271,819 km of primary logging roads that were created between 1973 and 2010. The greatest density of logging roads was found in Sarawak, at 0.89 km km⁻², and the lowest density in Brunei, at 0.18 km km⁻². Analyzing MODIS-based tree cover maps, we estimate that logging operated within 700 m of primary logging roads. Using this distance, we estimate that 266,257 km² of 1973 forest cover has been logged. With 389,566 km² (52.8%) of the island remaining forested, of which 209,649 km² remains intact. There is still hope for biodiversity conservation in Borneo. Protecting logged forests from fire and conversion to plantations is an urgent priority for reducing rates of deforestation in Borneo.     

Discerning Fragmentation Dynamics of Tropical Forest and Wetland during Reforestation,Urban Sprawl,and Policy Shifts

Despite the overall trend of worldwide deforestation over recent decades, reforestation has also been found and is expected in developing countries undergoing fast urbanization and agriculture abandonment. The consequences of reforestation on landscape patterns are seldom addressed in the literature, despite their importance in evaluating biodiversity and ecosystem functions. By analyzing long-term land cover changes in Puerto Rico, a rapidly reforested (6 to 42% during 1940–2000) and urbanized tropical island, we detected significantly different patterns of fragmentation and underlying mechanisms among forests, urban areas, and wetlands. Forest fragmentation is often associated with deforestation. However, we also found significant fragmentation during reforestation. Urban sprawl and suburb development have a dominant impact on forest fragmentation. Reforestation mostly occurs along forest edges, while significant deforestation occurs in forest interiors. The deforestation process has a much stronger impact on forest fragmentation than the reforestation process due to their different spatial configurations. In contrast, despite the strong interference of coastal urbanization, wetland aggregation has occurred due to the effective implementation of laws/regulations for wetland protection. The peak forest fragmentation shifted toward rural areas, indicating progressively more fragmentation in forest interiors. This shift is synchronous with the accelerated urban sprawl as indicated by the accelerated shift of the peak fragmentation index of urban cover toward rural areas, i.e., 1.37% yr⁻¹ in 1977–1991 versus 2.17% yr⁻¹ in 1991–2000. Based on the expected global urbanization and the regional forest transition from deforested to reforested, the fragmented forests and aggregated wetlands in this study highlight possible forest fragmentation processes during reforestation in an assessment of biodiversity and functions and suggest effective laws/regulations in land planning to reduce future fragmentation.     

Can Joint Carbon and Biodiversity Management in Tropical Agroforestry Landscapes Be Optimized?

Managing ecosystems for carbon storage may also benefit biodiversity conservation, but such a potential ‘win-win’ scenario has not yet been assessed for tropical agroforestry landscapes. We measured above- and below-ground carbon stocks as well as the species richness of four groups of plants and eight of animals on 14 representative plots in Sulawesi, Indonesia, ranging from natural rainforest to cacao agroforests that have replaced former natural forest. The conversion of natural forests with carbon stocks of 227–362 Mg C ha⁻¹ to agroforests with 82–211 Mg C ha⁻¹ showed no relationships to overall biodiversity but led to a significant loss of forest-related species richness. We conclude that the conservation of the forest-related biodiversity, and to a lesser degree of carbon stocks, mainly depends on the preservation of natural forest habitats. In the three most carbon-rich agroforestry systems, carbon stocks were about 60% of those of natural forest, suggesting that 1.6 ha of optimally managed agroforest can contribute to the conservation of carbon stocks as much as 1 ha of natural forest. However, agroforestry systems had comparatively low biodiversity, and we found no evidence for a tight link between carbon storage and biodiversity. Yet, potential win-win agroforestry management solutions include combining high shade-tree quality which favours biodiversity with cacao-yield adapted shade levels.     

Analysis of deforestation patterns in the Baekdudaegan preservation area using land cover classification and change detection techniques; the feasibility of restoration

The Baekdudaegan Mountain Range is a backbone of the Korean Peninsula which has special spiritual and sentimental significance for Koreans and significant ecological value to diverse organisms. Despite the importance of this region, however, the natural environment of Baekdudaegan has been severely threatened by a variety of human activity and tremendous forest fires. To make management and restoration plans for the deforested areas, it is necessary to investigate quantitatively such natural and human-induced physical changes. This study has thus attempted to quantitatively analyze land-use purposes and deforestation patterns in the Baekdudaegan preservation area by taking advantage of on-screen land cover classification and normalized difference vegetation index image-differencing techniques. The study has also attempted to review the feasibility of forest restoration by analyzing the most representative deforestation patterns in the Baekdudaegan preservation area. The land-cover classification results indicated that forests in the Baekdudaegan preservation area occupy an area of 4,794 km², approximately 90% of the total area, and nonforest is approximately 523 km². Agricultural land is the largest portion of nonforest area and occupies an area of 428 km² (82% of the nonforest area); urbanized built-up land accounts for 10% of nonforest areas (50 km²). According to results from change-detection analysis between 1987 and 2000, deforestation occurred in an area of over 240 ha and the dominant causes of deforestation were revealed as expansion of barren land (43% of the deforested area), conversion for agricultural use (34%), expansion of pasture (10%), and urban sprawl (8%). The most devastating deforestation in the Baekdudaegan area was found in agricultural field where the altitude is more than 600 m with a gentle slope of 10–20°. To restore this highland agricultural field, which has expanded along the ridgeline back to healthy forest, it seems the slope faces can be restored without slope stabilization, because the soil is rich and the slope is less than 20°; a landscape ecological approach is, however, suggested to maintain the connectivity of fragmented forest patches.     

Tree community diversity of lowland swamp forest in Northeast Costa Rica, and changes associated with controlled selective logging

In the Atlantic lowlands of Northeast Costa Rica, logging occurs in tracts of poorly drained wet forest ('swamp forest'), yet little is known about factors affecting swamp forest diversity or the potential for biodiversity retention during harvest. This paper quantitatively describes the species composition and diversity of the swamp forest habitat, and reports the immediate impact of controlled, selective logging on tree community diversity. Pentaclethra macroloba (Leguminosae), Carapa nicaraguensis (Meliaceae) and Pterocarpus officinalis (Leguminosae) accounted for >70% of the primary swamp forest basal area. Nevertheless, 225 species from 53 families with individuals 10cm dbh were encountered in 16.4 ha; most species had very low abundances. Gamma diversity is a component of overall swamp forest diversity. Extraction of 49.2m3ha–1 (5.5 trees ha–1) of timber from a 4ha plot reduced species richness by 14, supporting assertions that random mortality during logging can affect the distribution of rare species. However, tree community diversity as measured by rarefaction was not greatly affected by selective logging. Total post-logging stem recruitment over a 3-year period was greater in logged plots than in undisturbed plots; the recruitment of the ruderal species Ochroma lagopus (Bombacaceae) was the most clearly affected by logging. Any localized dominance by this species will be limited in space and time in a carefully managed forest. The results suggest that controlled selective logging can be consistent with biodiversity conservation, and complement protected areas in Northeast Costa Rica.     

Mass Change of Glaciers in Muztag Ata–Kongur Tagh,Eastern Pamir,China from 1971/76 to 2013/14 as Derived from Remote Sensing Data

The assessment of glacier mass budget is crucial for assessing water reserves stored in glaciers. Derived glacier mass changes in the Muztag Ata and Kongur Tagh (MAKT) region in the eastern Pamir, northwestern China, is helpful in improving our knowledge of the dynamics of glaciers under a changing climate in High Mountain Asia. Here, glacier area and mass changes derived from remote sensing data are investigated for the period 1971/76–2013/14 for glaciers in MAKT. We have used ASTER images (2013/14), Cartosat-1 (2014) and Landsat, SRTM (Shuttle Radar Terrain Mission) digital elevation model (DEM) (2000), topographic maps (1971/76) and the first and second Chinese glacier inventories (CGIs). Our results indicated that the glacier area of MAKT decreased from 1018.3 ± 12.99 km² in 1971/76 to 999.2 ± 31.22 km² in 2014 (–1.9 ± 0.2%). Weak area shrinkage of glaciers by 2.5 ± 0.5 km² (0.2 ± 0.1%) happened after 2000 and the period 2009–2014 even saw a slight expansion by 0.5 ± 0.1 km² (0.1 ± 0.0%). The glaciers in this region have experienced an overall loss of –6.99 ± 0.80 km³ in ice volume or –0.15 ± 0.12 m water equivalent (w.e.) a^–1 from 1971/76 to 2013/14. The mass budget of MAKT was –0.19 ± 0.19 m w.e. a⁻¹ for the period ~1971/76–1999 and –0.14 ± 0.24 m w.e. a⁻¹ during 1999–2013/2014. Similar to previous studies, there has been little mass change in the Pamir over recent decades despite such uncertainties. Glacier mass change showed spatial and temporal heterogeneity, with strong mass loss on debris-covered glaciers with an average of –0.32 ± 0.12 m w.e. a⁻¹ from the 1970s to 2013/14.     

Modeling and Mapping of Atmospheric Mercury Deposition in Adirondack Park,New York

The Adirondacks of New York State, USA is a region that is sensitive to atmospheric mercury (Hg) deposition. In this study, we estimated atmospheric Hg deposition to the Adirondacks using a new scheme that combined numerical modeling and limited experimental data. The majority of the land cover in the Adirondacks is forested with 47% of the total area deciduous, 20% coniferous and 10% mixed. We used litterfall plus throughfall deposition as the total atmospheric Hg deposition to coniferous and deciduous forests during the leaf-on period, and wet Hg deposition plus modeled atmospheric dry Hg deposition as the total Hg deposition to the deciduous forest during the leaf-off period and for the non-forested areas year-around. To estimate atmospheric dry Hg deposition we used the Big Leaf model. The average atmospheric Hg deposition to the Adirondacks was estimated as 17.4 g m yr with a range of −3.7–46.0 g m yr. Atmospheric Hg dry deposition (370 kg yr) was found to be more important than wet deposition (210 kg yr) to the entire Adirondacks (2.4 million ha). The spatial pattern showed a large variation in atmospheric Hg deposition with scattered areas in the eastern Adirondacks having total Hg deposition greater than 30 μg m⁻² yr⁻¹, while the southwestern and the northern areas received Hg deposition ranging from 25–30 μg m⁻² yr⁻¹.     

Spatial–temporal variations in deforestation hotspots in Sumatra and Kalimantan from 2001–2018

Tropical deforestation varies temporally and spatially which can inhibit the ability of existing protected areas to stem forest loss. Identifying the spatial–temporal distribution of deforestation and its concentration can help decision makers decide conservation priorities and leverage limited resources. This study assessed how topographic and anthropogenic variables affect deforestation patterns within and outside protected areas on the islands of Sumatra and Kalimantan in Indonesia. Emerging hotspot analysis (EHA) was used to evaluate spatial and temporal trends of forest loss on the Hansen annual forest loss data for these islands from 2001–2018. For the two islands, most hotspots were detected outside protected areas; those within protected areas were mainly concentrated at boundaries, where lower elevation/slope and high human pressure could be observed. New hotspots were identified within the three PAs in Sumatra, while three kinds of hotspots (consecutive, oscillating, and sporadic) were found in the two PAs of Kalimantan (Kutai and Teluk Kelumpang). Areas with high human pressure (average human footprint higher than 12) were covered by a high density of hotspots. The results identify specific areas where forest loss has emerged recently, which could indicate a conservation priority. It is suggested that new protected areas be established in locations showing intensifying and persistent hotspots—those where deforestation has occurred for ≥16 of 18 years of the study period.

Emerging hotspot analysis, a new approach that can evaluate spatial and temporal trends of forest loss, was performed on annual forest loss data for these islands from 2001–2018. Most hotspots were detected outside PAs; those within PAs were mainly concentrated at boundaries, where lower elevation/slope and high human pressure could be observed. More hotspots were detected on Sumatra than Kalimantan and were mainly distributed in the island''s center     

Influence of Deforestation,Logging, and Fire on Malaria in the Brazilian Amazon

Malaria is a significant public health threat in the Brazilian Amazon. Previous research has shown that deforestation creates breeding sites for the main malaria vector in Brazil, Anopheles darlingi, but the influence of selective logging, forest fires, and road construction on malaria risk has not been assessed. To understand these impacts, we constructed a negative binomial model of malaria counts at the municipality level controlling for human population and social and environmental risk factors. Both paved and unpaved roadways and fire zones in a municipality increased malaria risk. Within the timber production states where 90% of deforestation has occurred, compared with areas without selective logging, municipalities where 0–7% of the remaining forests were selectively logged had the highest malaria risk (1.72, 95% CI 1.18–2.51), and areas with higher rates of selective logging had the lowest risk (0.39, 95% CI 0.23–0.67). We show that roads, forest fires, and selective logging are previously unrecognized risk factors for malaria in the Brazilian Amazon and highlight the need for regulation and monitoring of sub-canopy forest disturbance.     

Quantifying avoided deforestation in Pará: Protected areas,buffer zones and edge effects

Percentage of forests saved due to establishment of protected areas is an important piece of information for government institutions and, therefore, is the goal of this study. However, non random location selection bias makes such information directly unobservable. To overcome this problem, propensity score matching was applied. Unlike in previous studies, impact of buffer zone management was assessed by estimating avoided deforestation in buffer zones and park edges. The study area is the state of Pará. Overall results revealed that park protection saved 0.72% of protected surface from deforestation during 2000–2004 year period (∼2900 km² of forests). The highest percentage of avoided deforestation was recorded in protected areas, situated near deforestation hotspots: central part of Eastern Pará, alongside Trans-Amazonian highway and on the banks of Amazon River. The findings also suggest that buffer zones tend to reduce deforestation where pressure on forests is lower, but substitution effect takes over in areas of high deforestation pressure (since loggers are prevented from deforesting within conservation units, deforestation in surrounding areas increases). Finally, the study does not find evidence of edge effects in the state of Pará.     

Carbon emissions from South‐East Asian peatlands will increase despite emission‐reduction schemes

Carbon emissions from drained peatlands converted to agriculture in South‐East Asia (i.e., Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra and Borneo) are globally significant and increasing. Here, we map the growth of South‐East Asian peatland agriculture and estimate CO₂ emissions due to peat drainage in relation to official land‐use plans with a focus on the reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD+)‐related Indonesian moratorium on granting new concession licences for industrial agriculture and logging. We find that, prior to 2010, 35% of South‐East Asian peatlands had been converted to agriculture, principally by smallholder farmers (15% of original peat extent) and industrial oil palm plantations (14%). These conversions resulted in 1.46–6.43 GtCO₂ of emissions between 1990 and 2010. This legacy of historical clearances on deep‐peat areas will contribute 51% (4.43–11.45 GtCO₂) of projected future peatland CO₂ emissions over the period 2010–2130. In Indonesia, which hosts most of the region's peatland and where concession maps are publicly available, 70% of peatland conversion to agriculture occurred outside of known concessions for industrial plantation development, with smallholders accounting for 60% and industrial oil palm accounting for 34%. Of the remaining Indonesian peat swamp forest (PSF), 45% is not protected, and its conversion would amount to CO₂ emissions equivalent to 0.7%–2.3% (5.14–14.93 Gt) of global fossil fuel and cement emissions released between 1990 and 2010. Of the peatland extent included in the moratorium, 48% was no longer forested, and of the PSF included, 40%–48% is likely to be affected by drainage impacts from agricultural areas and will emit CO₂ over time. We suggest that recent legislation and policy in Indonesia could provide a means of meaningful emission reductions if focused on revised land‐use planning, PSF conservation both inside and outside agricultural concessions, and the development of agricultural practices based on rehabilitating peatland hydrological function.     

Understanding the Impacts of Land-Use Policies on a Threatened Species: Is There a Future for the Bornean Orang-utan?

The geographic distribution of Bornean orang-utans and its overlap with existing land-use categories (protected areas, logging and plantation concessions) is a necessary foundation to prioritize conservation planning. Based on an extensive orang-utan survey dataset and a number of environmental variables, we modelled an orang-utan distribution map. The modelled orang-utan distribution map covers 155,106 km² (21% of Borneo''s landmass) and reveals four distinct distribution areas. The most important environmental predictors are annual rainfall and land cover. The overlap of the orang-utan distribution with land-use categories reveals that only 22% of the distribution lies in protected areas, but that 29% lies in natural forest concessions. A further 19% and 6% occurs in largely undeveloped oil palm and tree plantation concessions, respectively. The remaining 24% of the orang-utan distribution range occurs outside of protected areas and outside of concessions. An estimated 49% of the orang-utan distribution will be lost if all forest outside of protected areas and logging concessions is lost. To avoid this potential decline plantation development in orang-utan habitats must be halted because it infringes on national laws of species protection. Further growth of the plantation sector should be achieved through increasing yields in existing plantations and expansion of new plantations into areas that have already been deforested. To reach this goal a large scale island-wide land-use masterplan is needed that clarifies which possible land uses and managements are allowed in the landscape and provides new standardized strategic conservation policies. Such a process should make much better use of non-market values of ecosystem services of forests such as water provision, flood control, carbon sequestration, and sources of livelihood for rural communities. Presently land use planning is more driven by vested interests and direct and immediate economic gains, rather than by approaches that take into consideration social equity and environmental sustainability.     

Long-term persistence of aspen – a key host for many threatened species – is endangered in old-growth conservation areas in Finland

Large, dead and dying European aspens (Populus tremula L.) host many threatened species in Fennoscandian boreal forests. Large aspen trees have mostly disappeared and are being harvested from the managed forests that cover 95% of the forest area in Finland. Due to the small area protected (4.1%), the aspen-associated species may encounter major difficulties in the protected areas if aspen trees disappear due to natural forest succession. The availability of aspens was assessed in the old-growth conservation area network in eastern Finland. We mapped all the living and dead aspens in 15 protected old-growth forests. The total number of counted trees was 32 903 individuals. Current amounts of living (2.7 m³/ha) and especially dead aspens (2.8 m³/ha) in the protected areas were higher than in the surrounding managed forests (1.1 and 0.1 m³/ha for living and dead trees, respectively). However, while saplings (dbh<5 cm) occur in most of the areas (12 individuals/ha on average) they survive poorly and young aspen cohorts (5 cm <dbh<15 cm) are lacking or are very rare. The most likely reason for the poor sapling survival is high browsing pressure by the mammalian herbivores, especially the moose. The moose population has increased many times in Finland during the past decades. The poor regeneration of aspens implies that the value of the old-growth conservation areas for aspen-associated species will face a serious bottleneck within a few decades when the currently middle-aged tree cohorts disappear. If the current high browsing pressure and lack of natural disturbances continue the obligatory aspen-associated species may disappear both locally and regionally from the network of the protected areas.     

Land cover change and carbon emissions over 100 years in an African biodiversity hotspot

Agricultural expansion has resulted in both land use and land cover change (LULCC) across the tropics. However, the spatial and temporal patterns of such change and their resulting impacts are poorly understood, particularly for the presatellite era. Here, we quantify the LULCC history across the 33.9 million ha watershed of Tanzania's Eastern Arc Mountains, using geo‐referenced and digitized historical land cover maps (dated 1908, 1923, 1949 and 2000). Our time series from this biodiversity hotspot shows that forest and savanna area both declined, by 74% (2.8 million ha) and 10% (2.9 million ha), respectively, between 1908 and 2000. This vegetation was replaced by a fivefold increase in cropland, from 1.2 million ha to 6.7 million ha. This LULCC implies a committed release of 0.9 Pg C (95% CI: 0.4–1.5) across the watershed for the same period, equivalent to 0.3 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1. This is at least threefold higher than previous estimates from global models for the same study area. We then used the LULCC data from before and after protected area creation, as well as from areas where no protection was established, to analyse the effectiveness of legal protection on land cover change despite the underlying spatial variation in protected areas. We found that, between 1949 and 2000, forest expanded within legally protected areas, resulting in carbon uptake of 4.8 (3.8–5.7) Mg C ha^?1, compared to a committed loss of 11.9 (7.2–16.6) Mg C ha^?1 within areas lacking such protection. Furthermore, for nine protected areas where LULCC data are available prior to and following establishment, we show that protection reduces deforestation rates by 150% relative to unprotected portions of the watershed. Our results highlight that considerable LULCC occurred prior to the satellite era, thus other data sources are required to better understand long‐term land cover trends in the tropics.     

Short-term disturbance by a commercial two-dimensional seismic survey does not lead to long-term displacement of harbour porpoises

Assessments of the impact of offshore energy developments are constrained because it is not known whether fine-scale behavioural responses to noise lead to broader-scale displacement of protected small cetaceans. We used passive acoustic monitoring and digital aerial surveys to study changes in the occurrence of harbour porpoises across a 2000 km² study area during a commercial two-dimensional seismic survey in the North Sea. Acoustic and visual data provided evidence of group responses to airgun noise from the 470 cu inch array over ranges of 5–10 km, at received peak-to-peak sound pressure levels of 165–172 dB re 1 µPa and sound exposure levels (SELs) of 145–151 dB re 1 µPa² s⁻¹. However, animals were typically detected again at affected sites within a few hours, and the level of response declined through the 10 day survey. Overall, acoustic detections decreased significantly during the survey period in the impact area compared with a control area, but this effect was small in relation to natural variation. These results demonstrate that prolonged seismic survey noise did not lead to broader-scale displacement into suboptimal or higher-risk habitats, and suggest that impact assessments should focus on sublethal effects resulting from changes in foraging performance of animals within affected sites.     

Global trends and uncertainties in terrestrial denitrification and N2O emissions

Soil nitrogen (N) budgets are used in a global, distributed flow-path model with 0.5° × 0.5° resolution, representing denitrification and N₂O emissions from soils, groundwater and riparian zones for the period 1900–2000 and scenarios for the period 2000–2050 based on the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Total agricultural and natural N inputs from N fertilizers, animal manure, biological N₂ fixation and atmospheric N deposition increased from 155 to 345 Tg N yr⁻¹ (Tg = teragram; 1 Tg = 10¹² g) between 1900 and 2000. Depending on the scenario, inputs are estimated to further increase to 408–510 Tg N yr⁻¹ by 2050. In the period 1900–2000, the soil N budget surplus (inputs minus withdrawal by plants) increased from 118 to 202 Tg yr⁻¹, and this may remain stable or further increase to 275 Tg yr⁻¹ by 2050, depending on the scenario. N₂ production from denitrification increased from 52 to 96 Tg yr⁻¹ between 1900 and 2000, and N₂O–N emissions from 10 to 12 Tg N yr⁻¹. The scenarios foresee a further increase to 142 Tg N₂–N and 16 Tg N₂O–N yr⁻¹ by 2050. Our results indicate that riparian buffer zones are an important source of N₂O contributing an estimated 0.9 Tg N₂O–N yr⁻¹ in 2000. Soils are key sites for denitrification and are much more important than groundwater and riparian zones in controlling the N flow to rivers and the oceans.     

Ecosystem services from southern African woodlands and their future under global change

Miombo and mopane woodlands are the dominant land cover in southern Africa. Ecosystem services from these woodlands support the livelihoods of 100 M rural people and 50 M urban dwellers, and others beyond the region. Provisioning services contribute $9 ± 2 billion yr⁻¹ to rural livelihoods; 76% of energy used in the region is derived from woodlands; and traded woodfuels have an annual value of $780 M. Woodlands support much of the region''s agriculture through transfers of nutrients to fields and shifting cultivation. Woodlands store 18–24 PgC carbon, and harbour a unique and diverse flora and fauna that provides spiritual succour and attracts tourists. Longstanding processes that will impact service provision are the expansion of croplands (0.1 M km²; 2000–2014), harvesting of woodfuels (93 M tonnes yr⁻¹) and changing access arrangements. Novel, exogenous changes include large-scale land acquisitions (0.07 M km²; 2000–2015), climate change and rising CO₂. The net ecological response to these changes is poorly constrained, as they act in different directions, and differentially on trees and grasses, leading to uncertainty in future service provision. Land-use change and socio-political dynamics are likely to be dominant forces of change in the short term, but important land-use dynamics remain unquantified.This article is part of the themed issue ‘Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation’.