Do local moisture stress responses across tree species reflect dry limits of their geographic ranges?

Under future climate drought‐induced tree mortality may result in the contraction of species ranges and the reorganization of community composition where abundant and peripheral species exchange their patterns of dominance. Predicting these changes will be challenging because the future suitable habitat may be a mismatch for the current bioclimatic envelope because of discrepancies between the realized and fundamental niche. Here we evaluate the extent of the discrepancy, as applied to tree species in relation to their relative field‐recorded drought sensitivities and their observed range‐wide environmental moisture envelopes. The hypothesis tested was that different species levels of drought‐induced damage at sites where they co‐occur will be positively associated with the minimum moisture availability in the most drought‐prone part of each species current geographic range. We tested the hypothesis using drought damage measurements for 13 Australian Myrtaceae (including Eucalyptus) tree species at a site where all co‐occur, together with 120 years of climate data across their geographical ranges. With limited statistical power the results generated only modest support for the hypothesis suggesting limited capacity to predict future distributions under climate change scenarios. In spite of the poor dispersal capacities of Eucalyptus and allied genera, but consistent with knowledge of breeding systems and genetic variability within Eucalyptus, the findings also suggest that many species have a capacity for rapid adaptive response to climate change, including the vicissitudes of the late Quaternary.     

Life-history traits are correlated with geographical distribution patterns of western European forest herb species

Aim To investigate whether six plant life‐history traits that have been related to colonization ability at local scales are also related to the geographical range characteristics of 273 forest plant species. Location Continental western Europe, five countries in particular: France, Luxemburg, Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany. The region is situated between 42° and 55°N and 5°W and 15°E and has a summed total area of 971,404 km². Methods Distribution data were compiled from five national data bases and converted to a 10′ grid. Life‐history traits were taken from existing compilations of autecological information of European species. The spatial arrangement of occupied grid cells was investigated using Ripley's K. Cross‐species correlations and phylogenetically independent contrasts were used to investigate the relationships between plant life‐history traits and three range characteristics: area of occupancy, latitudinal extent and centroid latitude. Results For herbaceous species, seed dispersal mode, seed production and seed bank longevity exhibited significant associations with geographical range characteristics, including area of occupancy. Woody plant species exhibited fewer significant associations, although maximum height was positively associated with range centroid latitude within the study area. Furthermore, the ranges of species with limited dispersal ability were found to be more clustered than the ranges of species with morphological adaptations for long‐distance seed dispersal. Main conclusions For western European forest plant species, life‐history traits that are related to colonization ability at local scales are associated with variation in large‐scale geographical range characteristics. This finding implies that the distributions of some forest plant species in the study area may be limited by seed dispersal and colonization capacity rather than climate or other environmental factors.     

Comparative multilocus phylogeography of two Palaearctic spruce bark beetles: influence of contrasting ecological strategies on genetic variation

While phylogeographic patterns of organisms are often interpreted through past environmental disturbances, mediated by climate changes, and geographic barriers, they may also be strongly influenced by species‐specific traits. To investigate the impact of such traits, we focused on two Eurasian spruce bark beetles that share a similar geographic distribution, but differ in their ecology and reproduction. Ips typographus is an aggressive tree‐killing species characterized by strong dispersal, whereas Dendroctonus micans is a discrete inbreeding species (sib mating is the rule), parasite of living trees and a poor disperser. We compared genetic variation between the two species over both beetles’ entire range in Eurasia with five independent gene fragments, to evaluate whether their intrinsic differences could have an influence over their phylogeographic patterns. We highlighted widely divergent patterns of genetic variation for the two species and argue that the difference is indeed largely compatible with their contrasting dispersal strategies and modes of reproduction. In addition, genetic structure in I. typographus divides European populations in a northern and a southern group, as was previously observed for its host plant, and suggests past allopatric divergence. A long divergence time was estimated between East Asian and other populations of both species, indicating their long‐standing presence in Eurasia, prior to the last glacial maximum. Finally, the strong population structure observed in D. micans for the mitochondrial locus provides insights into the recent colonization history of this species, from its native European range to regions where it was recently introduced.     

A framework integrating physiology,dispersal and land‐use to project species ranges under climate change

To study the potential effects of climate change on species, one of the most popular approaches are species distribution models (SDMs). However, they usually fail to consider important species‐specific biological traits, such as species’ physiological capacities or dispersal ability. Furthermore, there is consensus that climate change does not influence species distributions in isolation, but together with other anthropogenic impacts such as land‐use change, even though studies investigating the relative impacts of different threats on species and their geographic ranges are still rare. Here we propose a novel integrative approach which produces refined future range projections by combining SDMs based on distribution, climate, and physiological tolerance data with empirical data on dispersal ability as well as current and future land‐use. Range projections based on different combinations of these factors show strong variation in projected range size for our study species Emberiza hortulana. Using climate and physiological data alone, strong range gains are projected. However, when we account for land‐use change and dispersal ability, future range‐gain may even turn into a future range loss. Our study highlights the importance of accounting for biological traits and processes in species distribution models and of considering the additive effects of climate and land‐use change to achieve more reliable range projections. Furthermore, with our approach we present a new tool to assess species’ vulnerability to climate change which can be easily applied to multiple species.     

Dominant tree species are at risk from exaggerated drought under climate change

Predicting the consequences of climate change on forest systems is difficult because trees may display species‐specific responses to exaggerated droughts that may not be reflected by the climatic envelope of their geographic range. Furthermore, few studies have examined the postdrought recovery potential of drought‐susceptible tree species. This study develops a robust ranking of the drought susceptibility of 21 tree species based on their mortality after two droughts (1990s and 2000s) in the savanna of north‐eastern Australia. Drought‐induced mortality was positively related to species dominance, negatively related to the ratio of postdrought seedlings to adults and had no relationship to the magnitude of extreme drought within the species current geographic ranges. These results suggest that predicting the consequences of exaggerated drought on species’ geographic ranges is difficult, but that dominant species like Eucalyptus with relatively slow rates of population recovery and dispersal are the most susceptible. The implications for savanna ecosystems are lower tree densities and basal area.     

Forest composition in Mediterranean mountains is projected to shift along the entire elevational gradient under climate change

Aim Species distribution models have been used frequently to assess the effects of climate change on mountain biodiversity. However, the value and accuracy of these assessments have been hampered by the use of low‐resolution data for species distributions and climatic conditions. Herein we assess potential changes in the distribution and community composition of tree species in two mountainous regions of Spain under specific scenarios of climate change using data with a high spatial resolution. We also describe potential changes in species distributions and tree communities along the entire elevational gradient. Location Two mountain ranges in southern Europe: the Central Mountain Range (central west of the Iberian Peninsula), and the Iberian Mountain Range (central east). Methods We modelled current and future distributions of 15 tree species (Eurosiberian, sub‐Mediterranean and Mediterranean species) as functions of climate, lithology and availability of soil water using generalized linear models (logistic regression) and machine learning models (gradient boosting). Using multivariate ordination of a matrix of presence/absence of tree species obtained under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (A2 and B2) for two different periods in the future (2041–70 and 2071–2100), we assessed the predicted changes in the composition of tree communities. Results The models predicted an upward migration of communities of Mediterranean trees to higher elevations and an associated decline in communities of temperate or cold‐adapted trees during the 21st century. It was predicted that 80–99% of the area that shows a climate suitable for cold–wet‐optimum Eurosiberian coniferous and broad‐leaved species will be lost. The largest overall changes were predicted for Mediterranean species found currently at low elevations, such as Pinus halepensis, Pinus pinaster, Quercus ilex ssp. ballota and Juniperus oxycedrus, with sharp increases in their range of 350%. Main conclusions It is likely that areas with climatic conditions suitable for cold‐adapted species will decrease significantly under climate warming. Large changes in species ranges and forest communities might occur, not only at high elevations within Mediterranean mountains but also along the entire elevational gradient throughout this region, particularly at low and mid‐elevations. Mediterranean mountains might lose their key role as refugia for cold‐adapted species and thus an important part of their genetic heritage.     

Assessing the impacts of climate change and land transformation on Banksia in the South West Australian Floristic Region

Aim To determine the potential combined effects of climate change and land transformation on the modelled geographic ranges of Banksia. Location Mediterranean climate South West Australian Floristic Region (SWAFR). Methods We used the species distribution modelling software Maxent to relate current environmental conditions to occurrence data for 18 Banksia species, and subsequently made spatial predictions using two simple dispersal scenarios (zero and universal), for three climate‐severity scenarios at 2070, taking the impacts of land transformation on species’ ranges into account. The species were chosen to reflect the biogeography of Banksia in the SWAFR. Results Climate‐severity scenario, dispersal scenario, biogeographic distribution and land transformation all influenced the direction and magnitude of the modelled range change responses for the 18 species. The predominant response of species to all climate change scenarios was range contraction, with exceptions for some northern and widespread species. Including land transformation in estimates of modelled geographic range size for the three climate‐severity scenarios generally resulted in smaller gains and larger declines in species ranges across both dispersal scenarios. Including land transformation and assuming zero dispersal resulted, as expected, in the greatest declines in projected range size across all species. Increasing climate change severity greatly increased the risk of decline in the 18 Banksia species, indicating the critical role of mitigating future emissions. Main conclusions The combined effects of climate change and land transformation may have significant adverse impacts on endemic Proteaceae in the SWAFR, especially under high emissions scenarios and if, as expected, natural migration is limiting. Although these results need cautious interpretation in light of the many assumptions underlying the techniques used, the impacts identified warrant a clear focus on monitoring across species ranges to detect early signs of change, and experiments that determine physiological thresholds for species in order to validate and refine the models.     

Differences in life‐cycle stage components between native and introduced ranges of five woody Fabaceae species

Understanding differences in the components of life‐cycle stages of species between their native and introduced ranges can provide insights into the process of species transitioning from introduction to naturalization and invasion. We examined reproductive variables of the germination (seed predation, seed viability, time to germination), seed output (crown projection, seed production, seed weight) and dispersal (seed weight, dispersal investment) stages of five woody Fabaceae species, comparing native and introduced ranges. We predicted that each species would differ in reproductive variables of at least one life‐cycle stage between their native and introduced ranges, thus allowing us to determine the life‐cycle stage most associated with invasion success in the introduced range. Acacia melanoxylon and Paraserianthes lophantha had reduced seed predation in their introduced ranges while P. lophantha also had higher seed viability indicating that the germination life‐cycle stage is most strongly associated with their invasion success in the introduced range. Only Acacia longifolia varied between ranges for the seed output stage due to larger plant size, greater seed production and smaller seed size in its introduced range. Similar to A. longifolia, Acacia cyclops had smaller seed size in its introduced range but did not have any other variable differences between ranges suggesting that the dispersal stage is best associated with its invasion success in the introduced range. Surprisingly, Acacia saligna was the only species without a clear life‐cycle stage difference between ranges despite it being one of the more invasive acacia species in Australia. Although we found clear differences in reproductive variables associated with life‐cycle stages between native and introduced ranges of these five species, these differences were largely species‐specific. This suggests that a species invasion strategy into a novel environment is complex and varies among species depending on the environmental context, phenotypic plasticity and genotypic variation in particular traits.     

Tree range expansion in eastern North America fails to keep pace with climate warming at northern range limits

Rising global temperatures are suggested to be drivers of shifts in tree species ranges. The resulting changes in community composition may negatively impact forest ecosystem function. However, long‐term shifts in tree species ranges remain poorly documented. We test for shifts in the northern range limits of 16 temperate tree species in Quebec, Canada, using forest inventory data spanning three decades, 15° of longitude and 7° of latitude. Range shifts were correlated with climate warming and dispersal traits to understand potential mechanisms underlying changes. Shifts were calculated as the change in the 95th percentile of latitudinal occurrence between two inventory periods (1970–1978, 2000–2012) and for two life stages: saplings and adults. We also examined sapling and adult range offsets within each inventory, and changes in the offset through time. Tree species ranges shifted predominantly northward, although species responses varied. As expected shifts were greater for tree saplings, 0.34 km yr^?1, than for adults, 0.13 km yr^?1. Range limits were generally further north for adults compared to saplings, but the difference diminished through time, consistent with patterns observed for range shifts within each life stage. This suggests caution should be exercised when interpreting geographic range offsets between life stages as evidence of range shifts in the absence of temporal data. Species latitudinal velocities were on average <50% of the velocity required to equal the spatial velocity of climate change and were mostly unrelated to dispersal traits. Finally, our results add to the body of evidence suggesting tree species are mostly limited in their capacity to track climate warming, supporting concerns that warming will negatively impact the functioning of forest ecosystems.     

Postglacial migration supplements climate in determining plant species ranges in Europe

The influence of dispersal limitation on species ranges remains controversial. Considering the dramatic impacts of the last glaciation in Europe, species might not have tracked climate changes through time and, as a consequence, their present-day ranges might be in disequilibrium with current climate. For 1016 European plant species, we assessed the relative importance of current climate and limited postglacial migration in determining species ranges using regression modelling and explanatory variables representing climate, and a novel species-specific hind-casting-based measure of accessibility to postglacial colonization. Climate was important for all species, while postglacial colonization also constrained the ranges of more than 50 per cent of the species. On average, climate explained five times more variation in species ranges than accessibility, but accessibility was the strongest determinant for one-sixth of the species. Accessibility was particularly important for species with limited long-distance dispersal ability, with southern glacial ranges, seed plants compared with ferns, and small-range species in southern Europe. In addition, accessibility explained one-third of the variation in species' disequilibrium with climate as measured by the realized/potential range size ratio computed with niche modelling. In conclusion, we show that although climate is the dominant broad-scale determinant of European plant species ranges, constrained dispersal plays an important supplementary role.     

Southern isolation and northern long‐distance dispersal shaped the phylogeography of the widespread,but highly disjunct,European high mountain plant Artemisia eriantha (Asteraceae)

We investigated the range dynamics of Artemisia eriantha, a widespread, but rare, mountain plant with a highly disjunct distribution in the European Alpine System. We focused on testing the roles of vicariance and long‐distance dispersal in shaping the current distribution of the species. To this end, we collected AFLP and plastid DNA sequence data for 17 populations covering the entire distributional range of the species. Strong phylogeographical structure was found in both datasets. AFLP data suggested that almost all populations were genetically strongly differentiated, with 58% of the overall genetic variation partitioned among populations. Bayesian clustering identified five groups of populations: Balkans, Pyrenees, Central Apennines, one southwestern Alpine population and a Widespread cluster (eastern Pyrenees, Alps, Carpathians). Major groups were supported by neighbor‐joining and NeighbourNet analyses. Fourteen plastid haplotypes were found constituting five strongly distinct lineages: Alps plus Pyrenees, Apennines, Balkans, southern Carpathians, and a Widespread group (eastern Pyrenees, northern Carpathians, Mt. Olympus). Plastid DNA data suggested that A. eriantha colonized the European Alpine System in a westward direction. Although, in southern Europe, vicariant differentiation among the Iberian, Italian and Balkan Peninsulas predominated, thus highlighting their importance as glacial refugia for alpine species, in temperate mountain ranges, long‐distance dispersal prevailed. This study emphasizes that currently highly disjunct distributions can be shaped by both vicariance and long‐distance dispersal, although their relative importance may be geographically structured along, for instance, latitude, as in A. eriantha. © 2013 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 174 , 214–226.     

The fate of European breeding birds under climate,land‐use and dispersal scenarios

Many species have already shifted their distributions in response to recent climate change. Here, we aimed at predicting the future breeding distributions of European birds under climate, land‐use, and dispersal scenarios. We predicted current and future distributions of 409 species within an ensemble forecast framework using seven species distribution models (SDMs), five climate scenarios and three emission and land‐use scenarios. We then compared results from SDMs using climate‐only variables, habitat‐only variables or both climate and habitat variables. In order to account for a species’ dispersal abilities, we used natal dispersal estimates and developed a probabilistic method that produced a dispersal scenario intermediate between the null and full dispersal scenarios generally considered in such studies. We then compared results from all scenarios in terms of future predicted range changes, range shifts, and variations in species richness. Modeling accuracy was better with climate‐only variables than with habitat‐only variables, and better with both climate and habitat variables. Habitat models predicted smaller range shifts and smaller variations in range size and species richness than climate models. Using both climate and habitat variables, it was predicted that the range of 71% of the species would decrease by 2050, with a 335 km median shift. Predicted variations in species richness showed large decreases in the southern regions of Europe, as well as increases, mainly in Scandinavia and northern Russia. The partial dispersal scenario was significantly different from the full dispersal scenario for 25% of the species, resulting in the local reduction of the future predicted species richness of up to 10%. We concluded that the breeding range of most European birds will decrease in spite of dispersal abilities close to a full dispersal hypothesis, and that given the contrasted predictions obtained when modeling climate change only and land‐use change only, both scenarios must be taken into consideration.     

Co‐occurrence patterns of trees along macro‐climatic gradients and their potential influence on the present and future distribution of Fagus sylvatica L.

Aim During recent and future climate change, shifts in large‐scale species ranges are expected due to the hypothesized major role of climatic factors in regulating species distributions. The stress‐gradient hypothesis suggests that biotic interactions may act as major constraints on species distributions under more favourable growing conditions, while climatic constraints may dominate under unfavourable conditions. We tested this hypothesis for one focal tree species having three major competitors using broad‐scale environmental data. We evaluated the variation of species co‐occurrence patterns in climate space and estimated the influence of these patterns on the distribution of the focal species for current and projected future climates. Location Europe. Methods We used ICP Forest Level 1 data as well as climatic, topographic and edaphic variables. First, correlations between the relative abundance of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and three major competitor species (Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Quercus robur) were analysed in environmental space, and then projected to geographic space. Second, a sensitivity analysis was performed using generalized additive models (GAM) to evaluate where and how much the predicted F. sylvatica distribution varied under current and future climates if potential competitor species were included or excluded. We evaluated if these areas coincide with current species co‐occurrence patterns. Results Correlation analyses supported the stress‐gradient hypothesis: towards favourable growing conditions of F. sylvatica, its abundance was strongly linked to the abundance of its competitors, while this link weakened towards unfavourable growing conditions, with stronger correlations in the south and at low elevations than in the north and at high elevations. The sensitivity analysis showed a potential spatial segregation of species with changing climate and a pronounced shift of zones where co‐occurrence patterns may play a major role. Main conclusions Our results demonstrate the importance of species co‐occurrence patterns for calibrating improved species distribution models for use in projections of climate effects. The correlation approach is able to localize European areas where inclusion of biotic predictors is effective. The climate‐induced spatial segregation of the major tree species could have ecological and economic consequences.     

Phenotypic correlates of potential range size and range filling in European trees

Understanding the biological correlates of range sizes in plant species is important to predict the response of species to climate change. We used climate envelope models to estimate species’ potential range size and range filling for 48 European tree species. We hypothesized that potential range size relates to the climatic tolerances of plant species, and that the degree of range filling is influenced by species dispersal. We tested these hypotheses using, for each species, estimates for tolerance to cold and drought, type of dispersal, fruit size and seed size. Consistent with previous observations, we found that both the size of potential ranges and range filling increase from south to north. Species tolerance to temperature and water stress, as well as their dispersal-related traits also showed marked spatial patterns. There was, moreover, a significant positive partial correlation between cold tolerance and potential range size, when drought tolerance was partialed out, and a non-significant partial correlation between drought tolerance and potential range size, with cold tolerance partialed out. Range filling was not significantly larger in species dispersed by wind than in those dispersed by animals. There was a negative correlation between seed mass and range filling, but its statistical significance varied across different subsets of species and climate envelope algorithms; the correlation between fruit length and range filling was not significant. We conclude that climatic tolerances and dispersal traits influence species range size and range filling, and thus affect the range dynamics of species in response to global change. Using traits will therefore help to predict future distribution of species under climate change.     

Towards a biogeographic regionalization of the European biota

Aim To determine if it is possible to generate analytically derived regionalizations for multiple groups of European plants and animals and to explore potential influences on the regions for each taxonomic group. Location Europe. Methods We subjected range maps of trees, butterflies, reptiles, amphibians, birds and mammals to k‐means clustering followed by v‐fold cross‐validation to determine the pattern and number of regions (clusters). We then used the mean range sizes of species in each group as a correlate of the number of regions obtained for each taxon, and climate and species richness gradients as correlates of the spatial arrangement of the group‐specific regions. We also included the pattern of tree clusters as a predictor of animal clusters in order to test the ‘habitat templet’ concept as an explanation of animal distribution patterns. Results Spatially coherent clusters were found for all groups. The number of regions ranged from three to eight and was strongly associated with the mean range sizes of the species in each taxon. The cluster patterns of all groups were associated with various combinations of climate, underlying species richness gradients and, in the case of animals, the arrangement of tree clusters, although the rankings of the correlates differed among groups. In four of five groups the tree pattern was the strongest single predictor of the animal cluster patterns. Main conclusions Despite a long history of human disturbance and habitat modification, the European biota retains a discernable biogeographic structure. The primary driver appears to be aspects of climate related to water–energy balance, which also influence richness gradients. For many animals, the underlying habitat structure, as measured by tree distributions, appears to have a strong influence on their biogeographic structure, highlighting the need to preserve natural forest formations if we want to preserve the historical signal found in geographic distributions.     

Significant Asia‐Europe divergence in the middle spotted woodpecker (Aves,Picidae)

Population divergence could be strongly affected by species’ ecology and might not be a direct response to climate‐driven environmental change. We tested this in the middle spotted woodpecker (Dendrocoptes medius), a non‐migratory, low‐dispersal habitat specialist associated with old deciduous forests of the Western Palearctic. We present the first phylogeographic study of this species integrating genetic data (three mitochondrial loci, one autosomal and one Z‐linked intron) with species distribution modelling. Based on this species’ ecology, we predicted that the middle spotted woodpecker could have colonized its current range from multiple Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) refugia and that strongly structured populations could be expected. Indeed, we discovered a strong genetic divergence between Asian and European populations, with a split estimated at around one million of years ago. This was surprising given only slight intraspecific variation in plumage and morphology. Although there was no significant phylogeographic structure within the Asian and European groups, we cannot exclude the possibility of multiple refugia within either group during the LGM. This has to be further investigated with more extensive geographic sampling and larger number of variable independently evolving markers. Future studies should also investigate potential differences in vocalizations and ecology between the two groups. Lineages showing similar level of genetic differentiation including woodpeckers are often treated as species‐level taxa. Comparison of our results with the phylogeographic history of other woodpeckers, suggests that sympatric species with similar life‐histories might have idiosyncratic phylogeographic patterns probably resulting from different ecological requirements or historic stochasticity.     

Phylogenomics unravels Quaternary vicariance and allopatric speciation patterns in temperate‐montane plant species: A case study on the Ranunculus auricomus species complex

The time frame and geographical patterns of diversification processes in European temperate‐montane herbs are still not well understood. We used the sexual species of the Ranunculus auricomus complex as a model system to understand how vicariance versus dispersal processes in the context of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations have triggered speciation in temperate‐montane plant species. We used target enrichment sequence data from about 600 nuclear genes and coalescent‐based species tree inference methods to resolve phylogenetic relationships among the sexual taxa of the complex. We estimated absolute divergence times and, using ancestral range reconstruction, we tested if speciation was enhanced by vicariance or by dispersal processes. Phylogenetic relationships among taxa were fully resolved with some incongruence in the position of the tetraploid R. marsicus. Speciation events took place in a very short time at the end of the Mid‐Pleistocene Transition (830–580 thousand years ago [ka]). A second wave of intraspecific geographical differentiation occurred at the end of the Riss glaciation or during the Eemian interglacial between 200 and 100 ka. Ancestral range reconstruction suggests a widespread European ancestor of the R. auricomus complex. Vicariance has triggered allopatric speciation in temperate‐montane plant species during the climatic deterioration that occurred during the last phase of the Mid‐Pleistocene Transition. Vegetation restructuring from forest into tundra could have confined these forest species into isolated glacial macro‐ and microrefugia. During subsequent warming periods, range expansions of these species could have been hampered by apomictic derivatives and by other congeneric competitors in the same habitat.     

Precocious reproduction increases at the leading edge of a mangrove range expansion

Climate change‐driven shifts in species ranges are ongoing and expected to increase. However, life‐history traits may interact with climate to influence species ranges, potentially accelerating or slowing range shifts in response to climate change. Tropical mangroves have expanded their ranges poleward in the last three decades. Here, we report on a shift at the range edge in life‐history traits related to reproduction and dispersal. With a common garden experiment and field observations, we show that Rhizophora mangle individuals from northern populations reproduce at a younger age than those from southern populations. In a common garden at the northern range limit, 38% of individuals from the northernmost population were reproductive by age 2, but less than 10% of individuals from the southernmost population were reproductive by the same age, with intermediate amounts of reproduction from intermediate latitudes. Field observations show a similar pattern of younger reproductive individuals toward the northern range limit. We also demonstrate a shift toward larger propagule size in populations at the leading range edge, which may aid seedling growth. The substantial increase in precocious reproduction at the leading edge of the R. mangle range could accelerate population growth and hasten the expansion of mangroves into salt marshes.     

Long‐distance dispersal maximizes evolutionary potential during rapid geographic range expansion

Conventional wisdom predicts that sequential founder events will cause genetic diversity to erode in species with expanding geographic ranges, limiting evolutionary potential at the range margin. Here, we show that invasive European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) in South Africa preserve genetic diversity during range expansion, possibly as a result of frequent long‐distance dispersal events. We further show that unfavourable environmental conditions trigger enhanced dispersal, as indicated by signatures of selection detected across the expanding range. This brings genetic variation to the expansion front, counterbalancing the cumulative effects of sequential founding events and optimizing standing genetic diversity and thus evolutionary potential at range margins during spread. Therefore, dispersal strategies should be highlighted as key determinants of the ecological and evolutionary performances of species in novel environments and in response to global environmental change.     

Historical divergence vs. contemporary gene flow: evolutionary history of the calcicole Ranunculus alpestris group (Ranunculaceae) in the European Alps and the Carpathians

Although many species have similar total distributional ranges, they might be restricted to very different habitats and might have different phylogeographical histories. In the European Alps, our excellent knowledge of the evolutionary history of silicate‐dwelling (silicicole) plants is contrasted by a virtual lack of data from limestone‐dwelling (calcicole) plants. These two categories exhibit fundamentally different distribution patterns within the Alps and are expected to differ strongly with respect to their glacial history. The calcicole Ranunculus alpestris group comprises three diploid species of alpine habitats. Ranunculus alpestris s. str. is distributed over the southern European mountain system, while R. bilobus and R. traunfellneri are southern Alpine narrow endemics. To explore their phylogenetic relationships and phylogeographical history, we investigated the correlation between information given by nuclear and chloroplast DNA data. Analyses of amplified fragment length polymorphism fingerprints and matK sequences gave incongruent results, indicative for reticulate evolution. Our data highlight historical episodes of range fragmentation and expansion, occasional long‐distance dispersal and on‐going gene flow as important processes shaping the genetic structure of the group. Genetic divergence, expressed as a rarity index (‘frequency‐down‐weighted marker values’) seems a better indicator of historical processes than patterns of genetic diversity, which rather mirror contemporary processes as connectivity of populations and population sizes. Three phylogeographical subgroups have been found within the R. alpestris group, neither following taxonomy nor geography. Genetic heterogeneity in the Southern Alps contrasts with Northern Alpine uniformity. The Carpathians have been stepwise‐colonised from the Eastern Alpine lineage, resulting in a marked diversity loss in the Southern Carpathians. The main divergence within the group, separating the ancestor of the two endemic species from R. alpestris s. str., predates the Quaternary. Therefore, range shifts produced by palaeoclimatic oscillations seem to have acted on the genetic structure of R. alpestris group on a more regional level, e.g. triggering an allopatric separation of R. traunfellneri from R. bilobus.