Simulating and detecting autocorrelation of molecular evolutionary rates among lineages

Evolutionary timescales can be estimated from genetic data using phylogenetic methods based on the molecular clock. To account for molecular rate variation among lineages, a number of relaxed‐clock models have been developed. Some of these models assume that rates vary among lineages in an autocorrelated manner, so that closely related species share similar rates. In contrast, uncorrelated relaxed clocks allow all of the branch‐specific rates to be drawn from a single distribution, without assuming any correlation between rates along neighbouring branches. There is uncertainty about which of these two classes of relaxed‐clock models are more appropriate for biological data. We present an R package, NELSI, that allows the evolution of DNA sequences to be simulated according to a range of clock models. Using data generated by this package, we assessed the ability of two Bayesian phylogenetic methods to distinguish among different relaxed‐clock models and to quantify rate variation among lineages. The results of our analyses show that rate autocorrelation is typically difficult to detect, even when there is complete taxon sampling. This provides a potential explanation for past failures to detect rate autocorrelation in a range of data sets.     

Molecular‐clock methods for estimating evolutionary rates and timescales

The molecular clock presents a means of estimating evolutionary rates and timescales using genetic data. These estimates can lead to important insights into evolutionary processes and mechanisms, as well as providing a framework for further biological analyses. To deal with rate variation among genes and among lineages, a diverse range of molecular‐clock methods have been developed. These methods have been implemented in various software packages and differ in their statistical properties, ability to handle different models of rate variation, capacity to incorporate various forms of calibrating information and tractability for analysing large data sets. Choosing a suitable molecular‐clock model can be a challenging exercise, but a number of model‐selection techniques are available. In this review, we describe the different forms of evolutionary rate heterogeneity and explain how they can be accommodated in molecular‐clock analyses. We provide an outline of the various clock methods and models that are available, including the strict clock, local clocks, discrete clocks and relaxed clocks. Techniques for calibration and clock‐model selection are also described, along with methods for handling multilocus data sets. We conclude our review with some comments about the future of molecular clocks.     

Calibrating the Tree of Life: fossils, molecules and evolutionary timescales

Background

Molecular dating has gained ever-increasing interest since the molecular clock hypothesis was proposed in the 1960s. Molecular dating provides detailed temporal frameworks for divergence events in phylogenetic trees, allowing diverse evolutionary questions to be addressed. The key aspect of the molecular clock hypothesis, namely that differences in DNA or protein sequence between two species are proportional to the time elapsed since they diverged, was soon shown to be untenable. Other approaches were proposed to take into account rate heterogeneity among lineages, but the calibration process, by which relative times are transformed into absolute ages, has received little attention until recently. New methods have now been proposed to resolve potential sources of error associated with the calibration of phylogenetic trees, particularly those involving use of the fossil record.

Scope and Conclusions

The use of the fossil record as a source of independent information in the calibration process is the main focus of this paper; other sources of calibration information are also discussed. Particularly error-prone aspects of fossil calibration are identified, such as fossil dating, the phylogenetic placement of the fossil and the incompleteness of the fossil record. Methods proposed to tackle one or more of these potential error sources are discussed (e.g. fossil cross-validation, prior distribution of calibration points and confidence intervals on the fossil record). In conclusion, the fossil record remains the most reliable source of information for the calibration of phylogenetic trees, although associated assumptions and potential bias must be taken into account.     

The origin of a mega‐diverse genus: dating Begonia (Begoniaceae) using alternative datasets,calibrations and relaxed clock methods

Begonia is a mega‐diverse genus comprising c. 1500 species of herbs, shrubs and epiphytes with a near pantropical distribution. Previous date estimates for the most recent common ancestor of Begonia have placed the evolution of this genus into a broad temporal context, but the issue of an absolute date estimate remains open. In this study, we attempt to estimate absolute DNA divergence dates for Begonia and, in doing so, address some of many the factors that can affect such estimates. The largest source of variance in our estimates was because of uncertainty with the calibration constraints and phylogenetic distance between these constraints and Begonia. Another large source of variance was due to the alternative methods of analysis investigated. Less variance was as a result of the alternative DNA datasets and combinations of calibration constraints assessed. Our date estimates suggest that the most recent common ancestor of Begonia could have diversified from the end of the Cretaceous to the beginning of the Neogene, probably during a period of global cooling from the mid Eocene to early Oligocene. These estimates imply that the near pantropical distribution of extant Begonia was generated by intercontinental dispersal after the ancient inferred break up of the supercontinent, Gondwana. © 2009 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2009, 159 , 363–380.     

Incorrect handling of calibration information in divergence time inference: an example from volcanic islands

Divergence time studies rely on calibration information from several sources. The age of volcanic islands is one of the standard references to obtain chronological data to estimate the absolute times of lineage diversifications. This strategy assumes that cladogenesis is necessarily associated with island formation, and punctual calibrations are commonly used to date the splits of endemic island species. Here, we re-examined three studies that inferred divergence times for different Hawaiian lineages assuming fixed calibration points. We show that, by permitting probabilistic calibrations, some divergences are estimated to be significantly younger or older than the age of the island formation, thus yielding distinct ecological scenarios for the speciation process. The results highlight the importance of using calibration information correctly, as well as the possibility of incorporating volcanic island studies into a formal, biogeographical hypothesis-testing framework.     

Phylogeny and molecular dating of the cerato-platanin-encoding genes

The cerato-platanin family consists of proteins that can induce immune responses, cause necrosis, change chemotaxis and locomotion and may be related to the growth and development of various fungi. In this work, we analyzed the phylogenetic relationships among genes encoding members of the cerato-platanin family and computed the divergence times of the genes and corresponding fungi. The results showed that cerato-platanin-encoding genes could be classified into 10 groups but did not cluster according to fungal classes or their functions. The genes transferred horizontally and showed duplication. Molecular dating and adaptive evolution analyses indicated that the cerato-platanin gene originated with the appearance of saprophytes and that the gene was under positive selection. This finding suggests that cerato-platanin-encoding genes evolved with the development of fungal parasitic characteristics.     

Sigmodontine rodents diversified in South America prior to the complete rise of the Panamanian Isthmus

The extant distribution of sigmodontine rodents encompasses most of the New World, and the majority of the species in this subfamily inhabit South America. Nevertheless, the basal lineages of the Sigmodontinae are distributed in North and Central America, and the fossil record indicates a North American origin. This evidence has produced contentious theories concerning the evolution of these rodents. The dispute usually stems from a disagreement about the way in which sigmodontines reached South America, which was an isolated landmass during most of the Cenozoic. Fundamentally, the debate is associated with the role of Panamanian Isthmus formation and the Great American Biotic Interchange (GABI) in the diversification of the clade. An early hypothesis implies that sigmodontines arrived in South America before the complete rise of the Panamanian Isthmus, whereas a late hypothesis directly correlates the diversification of the lineage with this event. To address this question, we have sequenced nuclear and mitochondrial sequences, as well as the first Sigmodontinae mitochondrial genomes (Akodon montensis and Wiedomys cerradensis) and performed a Bayesian dating analysis. Our results showed that the most recent common ancestor of the subfamily lived at approximately 15 Ma. Although the diversification of sigmodontines was not associated with the complete rise of the Panamanian Isthmus, we cannot exclude the hypothesis that this event played a relevant role in the evolution of the lineage during the Miocene.     

The age of the angiosperms: a molecular timescale without a clock

The age of the angiosperms has long been of interest to botanists and evolutionary biologists. Many early efforts to date the age of the angiosperms and evolutionary divergences within the angiosperm clade using a molecular clock have yielded age estimates that are grossly inconsistent with the fossil record. We investigated the age of angiosperms using Bayesian relaxed clock (BRC) and penalized likelihood (PL) approaches. Both of these methods allow the incorporation of multiple fossil constraints into the optimization procedure. The BRC method allows a range of values for among-lineage rate of substitution, from a nearly clocklike behavior to a condition in which each branch is allowed an optimal substitution rate, and also accounts for variation in molecular evolution across multiple genes. A topology derived from an analysis of genes from all three plant genomes for 71 taxa was used as a backbone. The effects on age estimates of different genes, single-gene versus concatenated datasets, and the inclusion and assumptions of fossils as age constraints were examined. In addition, the influence of prior distributions on estimates of divergence times was also explored. These results indicate that widely divergent age estimates can result from the different methods (198-139 million years ago), different sources of data (275-122 million years ago), and the inclusion of temporal constraints to topologies. Most dates, however, are between 180-140 million years ago, suggesting a Middle Jurassic-Early Cretaceous origin of flowering plants, predating the oldest unequivocal fossil angiosperms by about 45-5 million years. Nonetheless, these dates are consistent with other recent studies that have used methods that relax the assumption of a strict molecular clock and also agree with the hypothesis that the angiosperms may be somewhat older than the fossil record indicates.     

The origin and evolution of Indomalesian,Australasian and Pacific island biotas: insights from Aglaieae (Meliaceae,Sapindales)

Aim The role of long‐distance dispersal in the Indomalesian, Australasian and Pacific flora is currently hotly debated. The lack of well‐resolved phylogenetic trees for Pacific plants has been a major limitation for biogeographical analysis. Here, we present a well‐resolved phylogenetic tree for the tribe Aglaieae in the mahogany family, Meliaceae, and use it to investigate the origin, evolution and dispersal history of biotas in this area. The subfamily Melioideae, including the tribe Aglaieae (Meliaceae, Sapindales), is a plant group with good representation in the region in terms of biomass and species numbers, wide ecological attributes and known animal vectors. The family has a good fossil record (especially from North America and Europe). Genera and species in the tribe Aglaieae therefore provide an excellent model group for addressing this debate. Location Indomalesia, Australasia, Pacific islands. Methods Results from nuclear internal transcribed spacer ribosomal DNA analyses of 82 taxa, based on sequence alignment guided by secondary structure models, were combined with evidence from fossils and distribution data. We used strict and relaxed molecular clock approaches to estimate divergence times within Aglaieae. Putative ancestral areas were investigated through area‐based and event‐based biogeographical approaches. Information on dispersal routes and their direction was inferred from the investigation of dispersal asymmetries between areas. Results Our study indicates that the crown group of Aglaieae dates back at least to the Late Eocene, with major divergence events occurring during the Oligocene and Miocene. It also suggests that dispersal routes existed during Miocene–Pliocene times from the area including Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra and Borneo to Wallacea, India and Indochina, and from the area including New Guinea, New Ireland and New Britain further east to the Pacific islands at the peripheries of the distribution range. The origin of the Fijian species dates back to the Pliocene. Main conclusions Dispersal over oceanic water barriers has occurred during geological time and seems to have been a major driving force for divergence events in Aglaieae, with some old Gondwanan land masses (e.g. Australia) colonized only during recent times. Movement from the ancestral area was predominantly towards the east. Extant Fijian species of Aglaia are monophyletic and share morphological features rarely found in species of other areas, suggesting speciation within an endemic clade. Divergence of living taxa from their closest living relatives took place during both the Miocene and the Pliocene, and peaked in the Pliocene. The present‐day distribution of many species in the tribe must therefore have arisen as a result of dispersal rather than vicariance events. Furthermore, colonization from Indomalesia to Australasia and the Pacific has frequently been followed by speciation.     

A time-calibrated species tree of Crocodylia reveals a recent radiation of the true crocodiles

True crocodiles (Crocodylus) are the most broadly distributed, ecologically diverse, and species-rich crocodylian genus, comprising about half of extant crocodylian diversity and exhibiting a circumtropical distribution. Crocodylus traditionally has been viewed as an ancient group of morphologically conserved species that originated in Africa prior to continental breakup. In this study, these long-held notions about the temporal and geographic origin of Crocodylus are tested using DNA sequence data of 10 loci from 76 individuals representing all 23 crocodylian species. I infer a time-calibrated species tree of all Crocodylia and estimate the spatial pattern of diversification within Crocodylus. For the first time, a fully resolved phylogenetic estimate of all Crocodylia is well-supported. The results overturn traditional views of the evolution of Crocodylus by demonstrating that the true crocodiles are not "living-fossils" that originated in Africa. Rather, Crocodylus originated from an ancestor in the tropics of the Late Miocene Indo-Pacific, and rapidly radiated and dispersed around the globe during a period marked by mass extinctions of fellow crocodylians. The findings also reveal more diversity within the genus than is recognized by current taxonomy.     

A mixed relaxed clock model

Over recent years, several alternative relaxed clock models have been proposed in the context of Bayesian dating. These models fall in two distinct categories: uncorrelated and autocorrelated across branches. The choice between these two classes of relaxed clocks is still an open question. More fundamentally, the true process of rate variation may have both long-term trends and short-term fluctuations, suggesting that more sophisticated clock models unfolding over multiple time scales should ultimately be developed. Here, a mixed relaxed clock model is introduced, which can be mechanistically interpreted as a rate variation process undergoing short-term fluctuations on the top of Brownian long-term trends. Statistically, this mixed clock represents an alternative solution to the problem of choosing between autocorrelated and uncorrelated relaxed clocks, by proposing instead to combine their respective merits. Fitting this model on a dataset of 105 placental mammals, using both node-dating and tip-dating approaches, suggests that the two pure clocks, Brownian and white noise, are rejected in favour of a mixed model with approximately equal contributions for its uncorrelated and autocorrelated components. The tip-dating analysis is particularly sensitive to the choice of the relaxed clock model. In this context, the classical pure Brownian relaxed clock appears to be overly rigid, leading to biases in divergence time estimation. By contrast, the use of a mixed clock leads to more recent and more reasonable estimates for the crown ages of placental orders and superorders. Altogether, the mixed clock introduced here represents a first step towards empirically more adequate models of the patterns of rate variation across phylogenetic trees.This article is part of the themed issue ‘Dating species divergences using rocks and clocks’.     

A fossil‐calibrated relaxed clock for Ephedra indicates an Oligocene age for the divergence of Asian and New World clades and Miocene dispersal into South America

Abstract Ephedra comprises approximately 50 species, which are roughly equally distributed between the Old and New World deserts, but not in the intervening regions (amphitropical range). Great heterogeneity in the substitution rates of Gnetales (Ephedra, Gnetum, and Welwitschia) has made it difficult to infer the ages of the major divergence events in Ephedra, such as the timing of the Beringian disjunction in the genus and the entry into South America. Here, we use data from as many Gnetales species and genes as available from GenBank and from a recent study to investigate the timing of the major divergence events. Because of the tradeoff between the amount of missing data and taxon/gene sampling, we reduced the initial matrix of 265 accessions and 12 loci to 95 accessions and 10 loci, and further to 42 species (and 7736 aligned nucleotides) to achieve stationary distributions in the Bayesian molecular clock runs. Results from a relaxed clock with an uncorrelated rates model and fossil‐based calibration reveal that New World species are monophyletic and diverged from their mostly Asian sister clade some 30 mya, fitting with many other Beringian disjunctions. The split between the single North American and the single South American clade occurred approximately 25 mya, well before the closure of the Panamanian Isthmus. Overall, the biogeographic history of Ephedra appears dominated by long‐distance dispersal, but finer‐scale studies are needed to test this hypothesis.     

Multiple transgressions of Wallace's Line explain diversity of flightless Trigonopterus weevils on Bali

The fauna of Bali, situated immediately west of Wallace''s Line, is supposedly of recent Javanese origin and characterized by low levels of endemicity. In flightless Trigonopterus weevils, however, we find 100% endemism for the eight species here reported for Bali. Phylogeographic analyses show extensive in situ differentiation, including a local radiation of five species. A comprehensive molecular phylogeny and ancestral area reconstruction of Indo-Malayan–Melanesian species reveals a complex colonization pattern, where the three Balinese lineages all arrived from the East, i.e. all of them transgressed Wallace''s Line. Although East Java possesses a rich fauna of Trigonopterus, no exchange can be observed with Bali. We assert that the biogeographic picture of Bali has been dominated by the influx of mobile organisms from Java, but different relationships may be discovered when flightless invertebrates are studied. Our results highlight the importance of in-depth analyses of spatial patterns of biodiversity.     

A fossil-calibrated relaxed clock for Ephedra indicates an Oligocene age for the divergence of Asian and New World clades and Miocene dispersal into South America

Ephedra comprises approximately 50 species, which are roughly equally distributed between the Old and New World deserts, but not in the intervening regions （amphitropical range）. Great heterogeneity in the substitution rates of Gnetales （Ephedra, Gnetum, and Welwitschia） has made it difficult to infer the ages of the major divergence events in Ephedra, such as the timing of the Beringian disjunction in the genus and the entry into South America. Here, we use data from as many Gnetales species and genes as available from GenBank and from a recent study to investigate the timing of the major divergence events. Because of the tradeoff between the amount of missing data and taxon/gene sampling, we reduced the initial matrix of 265 accessions and 12 loci to 95 accessions and 10 loci, and further to 42 species （and 7736 aligned nucleotides） to achieve stationary distributions in the Bayesian molecular clock runs. Results from a relaxed clock with an uncorrelated rates model and fossil-based calibration reveal that New World species are monophyletic and diverged from their mostly Asian sister clade some 30 mya, fitting with many other Beringian disjunctions. The split between the single North American and the single South American clade occurred approximately 25 mya, well before the closure of the Panamanian Isthmus. Overall, the biogeographic history of Ephedra appears dominated by long-distance dispersal, but finer-scale studies are needed to test this hypothesis.     

Persistence of host defence behaviour in the absence of avian brood parasitism

The fate of host defensive behaviour in the absence of selection from brood parasitism is critical to long-term host-parasite coevolution. We investigated whether New World Bohemian waxwings Bombycilla garrulus that are allopatric from brown-headed cowbird Molothrus ater and common cuckoo Cuculus canorus parasitism have retained egg rejection behaviour. We found that egg rejection was expressed by 100 per cent of Bohemian waxwings. Our phylogeny revealed that Bohemian and Japanese waxwings Bombycilla japonica were sister taxa, and this clade was sister to the cedar waxwing Bombycilla cedrorum. In addition, there was support for a split between Old and New World Bohemian waxwings. Our molecular clock estimates suggest that egg rejection may have been retained for 2.8-3.0 Myr since New World Bohemian waxwings inherited it from their common ancestor with the rejecter cedar waxwings. These results support the 'single trajectory' model of host-brood parasite coevolution that once hosts evolve defences, they are retained, forcing parasites to become more specialized over time.     

The precision of the hominid timescale estimated by relaxed clock methods

The chronological scenario of the evolution of hominoid primates has been thoroughly investigated since the advent of the molecular clock hypothesis. With the availability of genomic sequences for all hominid genera and other anthropoids, we may have reached the point at which the information from sequence data alone will not provide further evidence for the inference of the hominid evolution timescale. To verify this conjecture, we have compiled a genomic data set for all of the anthropoid genera. Our estimate places the Homo/Pan divergence at approximately 7.4 Ma, the Gorilla lineage divergence at approximately 9.7 Ma, the basal Hominidae divergence at 18.1 Ma and the basal Hominoidea divergence at 20.6 Ma. By inferring the theoretical limit distribution of posterior densities under a Bayesian framework, we show that it is unlikely that lengthier alignments or the availability of new genomic sequences will provide additional information to reduce the uncertainty associated with the divergence time estimates of the four hominid genera. A reduction of this uncertainty will be achieved only by the inclusion of more informative calibration priors.     

TESTING FOR ANCIENT ADAPTIVE RADIATIONS IN NEOTROPICAL CICHLID FISHES

Most contemporary studies of adaptive radiation focus on relatively recent and geographically restricted clades. It is less clear whether diversification of ancient clades spanning entire continents is consistent with adaptive radiation. We used novel fossil calibrations to generate a chronogram of Neotropical cichlid fishes and to test whether patterns of lineage and morphological diversification are congruent with hypothesized adaptive radiations in South and Central America. We found that diversification in the Neotropical cichlid clade and the highly diverse tribe Geophagini was consistent with diversity‐dependent, early bursts of divergence followed by decreased rates of lineage accumulation. South American Geophagini underwent early rapid differentiation in body shape, expanding into novel morphological space characterized by elongate‐bodied predators. Divergence in head shape attributes associated with trophic specialization evolved under strong adaptive constraints in all Neotropical cichlid clades. The South American Cichlasomatini followed patterns consistent with constant rates of morphological divergence. Although morphological diversification in South American Heroini was limited, Eocene invasion of Central American habitats was followed by convergent diversification mirroring variation observed in Geophagini. Diversification in Neotropical cichlids was influenced by the early adaptive radiation of Geophagini, which potentially limited differentiation in other cichlid clades.     

DO REEFS DRIVE DIVERSIFICATION IN MARINE TELEOSTS? EVIDENCE FROM THE PUFFERFISH AND THEIR ALLIES (ORDER TETRAODONTIFORMES)

A major challenge in evolutionary biology lies in explaining patterns of high species numbers found in biodiversity hot spots. Tropical coral reefs underlie most marine hot spots and reef-associated fish faunas represent some of the most diverse assemblages of vertebrates on the planet. Although the standing diversity of modern reef fish clades is usually attributed to their ecological association with corals, untangling temporal patterns of codiversification has traditionally proved difficult. In addition, owing to uncertainty in higher-level relationships among acanthomorph fish, there have been few opportunities to test the assumption that reef-association itself leads to higher rates of diversification compared to other habitats. Here we use relaxed-clock methods in conjunction with statistical measures of species accumulation and phylogenetic comparative methods to clarify the temporal pattern of diversification in reef and nonreef-associated lineages of tetraodontiforms, a morphologically diverse order of teleost fish. We incorporate 11 fossil calibrations distributed across the tetraodontiform tree to infer divergence times and compare results from models of autocorrelated and uncorrelated evolutionary rates. All major tetraodontiform reef crown groups have significantly higher rates of diversification than the order as a whole. None of the nonreef-associated families show this pattern with the exception of the aracanid boxfish. Independent contrasts analysis also reveals a significantly positive relationship between diversification rate and proportion of reef-associated species within each family when aracanids are excluded. Reef association appears to have increased diversification rate within tetraodontiforms. We suggest that both intrinsic factors of reef habitat and extrinsic factors relating to the provincialization and regionalization of the marine biota during the Miocene (about 23-5 MY) played a role in shaping these patterns of diversity.     

Lygosomine phylogeny and the origins of Australian scincid lizards

Aim Australian scincid lizards represent three distinct groups within the cosmopolitan clade Lygosominae, the Egernia, Eugongylus and Sphenomorphus groups. This paper presents a time‐calibrated phylogeny for Lygosominae that provides the necessary temporal framework for assessing the contributions of immigration from Asia and of Gondwanan inheritance in the derivation of the Australian scincid fauna. Location Australasia, Asia, Africa. Methods Phylogenetic relationships and divergence times were inferred from novel BDNF, c‐mos and PTPN12 sequences (2408 aligned sites). Results Lygosomine monophyly is well supported, and there is strong support for monophyly of the Egernia, Eugongylus and Sphenomorphus groups. A sister‐group relationship of Tribolonotus (distributed in Melanesia and the Papuan Region) and the Egernia group is strongly supported in both Bayesian and maximum likelihood analyses. Australian representatives of the Sphenomorphus group compose a significantly supported clade estimated to have originated c. 25 Ma. An age of c. 18 Ma is inferred for a strongly supported clade comprising Australian representatives of the Egernia group; this clade diverged from Corucia zebrata (confined to the Solomon Islands) c. 25 Ma and from Tribolonotus c. 54 Ma. A well‐supported clade including all Australian Eugongylus group taxa sampled is estimated to have arisen c. 20 Ma. Main conclusions The Australian Sphenomorphus group is nested within the more inclusive Sphenomorphus group (distributed primarily in Asia and Australasia), suggesting comparatively recent descent from a colonizing Asian ancestor; the divergence times inferred here indicate that colonization occurred during the mid Cenozoic, subsequent to the rifting of Australia from Antarctica. An Oligocene origin of the extant Eugongylus group fauna of Australasia (the basal members of which are distributed in the Southwest Pacific) indicates that Eugongylus group lygosomines also dispersed to Australia relatively recently. The Egernia group diverged from Tribolonotus in the Early Eocene; however, extant Egernia group lygosomines originated only during the Late Oligocene, implying extensive pruning of stem taxa (i.e. extinction). As a result, inferences of the timing of dispersal into Australia are associated with substantial uncertainty, although independent palaeontological evidence suggests that the Egernia group entered Australia prior to the Oligocene, immediately after (or perhaps before) the separation of Australia and Antarctica.     

Purifying Selection Determines the Short-Term Time Dependency of Evolutionary Rates in SARS-CoV-2 and pH1N1 Influenza

High-throughput sequencing enables rapid genome sequencing during infectious disease outbreaks and provides an opportunity to quantify the evolutionary dynamics of pathogens in near real-time. One difficulty of undertaking evolutionary analyses over short timescales is the dependency of the inferred evolutionary parameters on the timespan of observation. Crucially, there are an increasing number of molecular clock analyses using external evolutionary rate priors to infer evolutionary parameters. However, it is not clear which rate prior is appropriate for a given time window of observation due to the time-dependent nature of evolutionary rate estimates. Here, we characterize the molecular evolutionary dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and 2009 pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) influenza during the first 12 months of their respective pandemics. We use Bayesian phylogenetic methods to estimate the dates of emergence, evolutionary rates, and growth rates of SARS-CoV-2 and pH1N1 over time and investigate how varying sampling window and data set sizes affect the accuracy of parameter estimation. We further use a generalized McDonald–Kreitman test to estimate the number of segregating nonneutral sites over time. We find that the inferred evolutionary parameters for both pandemics are time dependent, and that the inferred rates of SARS-CoV-2 and pH1N1 decline by ∼50% and ∼100%, respectively, over the course of 1 year. After at least 4 months since the start of sequence sampling, inferred growth rates and emergence dates remain relatively stable and can be inferred reliably using a logistic growth coalescent model. We show that the time dependency of the mean substitution rate is due to elevated substitution rates at terminal branches which are 2–4 times higher than those of internal branches for both viruses. The elevated rate at terminal branches is strongly correlated with an increasing number of segregating nonneutral sites, demonstrating the role of purifying selection in generating the time dependency of evolutionary parameters during pandemics.