Epidemic malaria and warmer temperatures in recent decades in an East African highland

Climate change impacts on malaria are typically assessed with scenarios for the long-term future. Here we focus instead on the recent past (1970-2003) to address whether warmer temperatures have already increased the incidence of malaria in a highland region of East Africa. Our analyses rely on a new coupled mosquito-human model of malaria, which we use to compare projected disease levels with and without the observed temperature trend. Predicted malaria cases exhibit a highly nonlinear response to warming, with a significant increase from the 1970s to the 1990s, although typical epidemic sizes are below those observed. These findings suggest that climate change has already played an important role in the exacerbation of malaria in this region. As the observed changes in malaria are even larger than those predicted by our model, other factors previously suggested to explain all of the increase in malaria may be enhancing the impact of climate change.     

Temperature and population density determine reservoir regions of seasonal persistence in highland malaria

A better understanding of malaria persistence in highly seasonal environments such as highlands and desert fringes requires identifying the factors behind the spatial reservoir of the pathogen in the low season. In these ‘unstable’ malaria regions, such reservoirs play a critical role by allowing persistence during the low transmission season and therefore, between seasonal outbreaks. In the highlands of East Africa, the most populated epidemic regions in Africa, temperature is expected to be intimately connected to where in space the disease is able to persist because of pronounced altitudinal gradients. Here, we explore other environmental and demographic factors that may contribute to malaria''s highland reservoir. We use an extensive spatio-temporal dataset of confirmed monthly Plasmodium falciparum cases from 1995 to 2005 that finely resolves space in an Ethiopian highland. With a Bayesian approach for parameter estimation and a generalized linear mixed model that includes a spatially structured random effect, we demonstrate that population density is important to disease persistence during the low transmission season. This population effect is not accounted for in typical models for the transmission dynamics of the disease, but is consistent in part with a more complex functional form of the force of infection proposed by theory for vector-borne infections, only during the low season as we discuss. As malaria risk usually decreases in more urban environments with increased human densities, the opposite counterintuitive finding identifies novel control targets during the low transmission season in African highlands.     

Geographic trends in mangrove crab abundance in East Africa

The aim of this work was to determine the abundance of crabs inmangrove communities along a latitudinal gradient along the eastern coastof Africa from 4°S to 32°S. Surveys were made atMombasa (Kenya), Zanzibar (Tanzania), Maputo (Mozambique) and in theTranskei (South Africa). Crabs were estimated at three designated levelsin the mangroves by visual census using a common protocol, and numberswere converted to biomass.Even after standardising the selection of sites and methods of censusthere was still extensive variability in the data, emphasising the complexheterogeneity of mangrove ecosystems. Lunar phase (full versus new moonsprings) did not have a consistent effect on results, but shore height hadseveral effects. Total crab biomass was similar in the two lower shore strataexamined, but about twice as high at the top-Avicennia level. Theratio of grapsid biomass:ocypodid biomass also changed with height: fromnear unity in the lower mangrove, to 0.14 in the middle strata, but to 15at the top.There was no consistent latitudinal trend in total crab numbers, but totalcrab biomass increased from north to south. In addition there was aconsistent and marked change in the grapsid biomass:ocypodid biomassratio: this swung from 0.65 at Mombasa to 6.8 in the Transkei. This hasimplications for the transfer of primary production through the food chain. Grapsids are important macrophagous feeders on the leaves and other partsof mangroves, whereas ocypodids are microphagous deposit feeders.     

Climate variability and malaria epidemics in the highlands of East Africa

Malaria epidemics in the highlands of East Africa garner significant research attention, due, in part, to their proposed sensitivity to climate change. In a recent article, Zhou et al. claim that increases in climate variance, rather than simple increases in climate mean values, have had an important role in the resurgence of malaria epidemics in the East African highlands since the early 1980s. If proven, this would be an interesting result but we believe that the methods used do not test the hypothesis suggested.     

Shifting patterns: malaria dynamics and rainfall variability in an African highland

The long-term patterns of malaria in the East African highlands typically involve not only a general upward trend in cases but also a dramatic increase in the size of epidemic outbreaks. The role of climate variability in driving epidemic cycles at interannual time scales remains controversial, in part because it has been seen as conflicting with the alternative explanation of purely endogenous cycles exclusively generated by the nonlinear dynamics of the disease. We analyse a long temporal record of monthly cases from 1970 to 2003 in a highland of western Kenya with both a time-series epidemiological model (time-series susceptible-infected-recovered) and a statistical approach specifically developed for non-stationary patterns. Results show that multiyear cycles of malaria outbreaks appear in the 1980s, concomitant with the timing of a regime shift in the dynamics of cases; the cycles become more pronounced in the 1990s, when the coupling between disease and rainfall is also stronger as the variance of rainfall increased at the frequencies of coupling. Disease dynamics and climate forcing play complementary and interacting roles at different temporal scales. Thus, these mechanisms should not be viewed as alternative and their interaction needs to be integrated in the development of future predictive models.     

The natural regulation of buffalo populations in East Africa: III. Population trends and mortality*

Analysis is carried out on the population data obtained from censuses and estimates of fertility and recruitment for the years 1965–1972, From the analysis, adult mortality is the only detectable reduction which acts as a negative feedback on the population, and is the only one needed to regulate the population in a way similar to the observed population trends. From a frequency distribution of ages at death, an approximate composite life table is constructed. This shows that males and females have similar age-specific mortalities until old age, but then males survive relatively better. Information on the causes of mortality indicate that the regulating adult mortality is caused in part by undernutrition, which in turn is due to food limitation rather than to social and physiological factors. Predation causes only a small part of the annual adult mortality, and its effect is swamped by other factors. Diseases play an important part as a primary factor in juvenile mortality but not in adult mortality because of the development of immunity. However, both disease and predation are important as secondary agents killing adults already weakened by moderate undernutrition. It is suggested that they play an essential role by hastening the population's response to changes in the food supply, and hence dampening oscillations that might develop in population and resource.