Extinct or still out there? Disentangling influences on extinction and rediscovery helps to clarify the fate of species on the edge

Each year, two or three species that had been considered to be extinct are rediscovered. Uncertainty about whether or not a species is extinct is common, because rare and highly threatened species are difficult to detect. Biological traits such as body size and range size are expected to be associated with extinction. However, these traits, together with the intensity of search effort, might influence the probability of detection and extinction differently. This makes statistical analysis of extinction and rediscovery challenging. Here, we use a variant of survival analysis known as cure rate modelling to differentiate factors that influence rediscovery from those that influence extinction. We analyse a global data set of 99 mammals that have been categorized as extinct or possibly extinct. We estimate the probability that each of these mammals is still extant and thus estimate the proportion of missing (presumed extinct) mammals that are incorrectly assigned extinction. We find that body mass and population density are predictors of extinction, and body mass and search effort predict rediscovery. In mammals, extinction rate increases with body mass and population density, and these traits act synergistically to greatly elevate extinction rate in large species that also occurred in formerly dense populations. However, when they remain extant, larger‐bodied missing species are rediscovered sooner than smaller species. Greater search effort increases the probability of rediscovery in larger species of missing mammals, but has a minimal effect on small species, which take longer to be rediscovered, if extant. By separating the effects of species characteristics on extinction and detection, and using models with the assumption that a proportion of missing species will never be rediscovered, our new approach provides estimates of extinction probability in species with few observation records and scant ecological information.     

Trajectories from extinction: where are missing mammals rediscovered?

Aim To determine where mammals that are presumed to be extinct are most likely to be rediscovered, and to test predictions of two hypotheses to explain trajectories of decline in mammals. Range collapse is based on the premise that extinction rates at the edge of species ranges are highest because habitat is suboptimal, so declining species are predicted to survive longer near the centre of their ranges. We predicted that under range collapse, remnant populations are most likely be rediscovered within their former core range. Conversely, if threats usually spread across ranges, declining species will be pushed to the periphery (range eclipse), so rediscoveries are predicted at the edge of the pre‐decline range. If so, species would be more likely to be rediscovered in marginal habitat, and at higher elevations than the sites from which they disappeared. Location World‐wide. Methods Using data on 67 species of mammals which have been rediscovered, I tested whether species were disproportionately rediscovered in the outer 50% of their former range area or at higher elevations than their last recorded locations, and which species characteristics were associated with rediscovery location and habitat change, using both the phylogenetic generalized least squares method to account for phylogenetic non‐independence and linear models of raw species data. Results Species affected by habitat loss were more likely to be rediscovered at the periphery than the centre of their former range, consistent with range eclipse caused by the spread of habitat destruction. High human population pressure predicted which species changed habitat between their previous records and rediscovery. Coastal species experienced higher human population densities, and were more likely to be rediscovered at the periphery of their former ranges, and there was some evidence of an up‐slope shift associated with higher human populations at lower elevations. Main conclusion The locations of rediscoveries of species affected by habitat loss were consistent with range eclipse through a mechanism of spreading habitat loss and human population pressure, rather than with range collapse. Searches for mammals that have declined from habitat loss should include range edges and marginal habitat, especially in areas of high human population density.     

The ghosts of mammals past: biological and geographical patterns of global mammalian extinction across the Holocene

Although the recent historical period is usually treated as a temporal base-line for understanding patterns of mammal extinction, mammalian biodiversity loss has also taken place throughout the Late Quaternary. We explore the spatial, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns of 241 mammal species extinctions known to have occurred during the Holocene up to the present day. To assess whether our understanding of mammalian threat processes has been affected by excluding these taxa, we incorporate extinct species data into analyses of the impact of body mass on extinction risk. We find that Holocene extinctions have been phylogenetically and spatially concentrated in specific taxa and geographical regions, which are often not congruent with those disproportionately at risk today. Large-bodied mammals have also been more extinction-prone in most geographical regions across the Holocene. Our data support the extinction filter hypothesis, whereby regional faunas from which susceptible species have already become extinct now appear less threatened; they may also suggest that different processes are responsible for driving past and present extinctions. We also find overall incompleteness and inter-regional biases in extinction data from the recent fossil record. Although direct use of fossil data in future projections of extinction risk is therefore not straightforward, insights into extinction processes from the Holocene record are still useful in understanding mammalian threat.     

Drivers of extinction: the case of Azorean beetles

Oceanic islands host a disproportionately high fraction of endangered or recently extinct endemic species. We report on species extinctions among endemic Azorean beetles following 97% habitat loss since AD 1440. We infer extinctions from historical and contemporary records and examine the influence of three predictors: geographical range, habitat specialization and body size. Of 55 endemic beetle species investigated (out of 63), seven can be considered extinct. Single-island endemics (SIEs) were more prone to extinction than multi-island endemics. Within SIEs restricted to native habitat, larger species were more extinction-prone. We thus show a hierarchical path to extinction in Azorean beetles: species with small geographical range face extinction first, with the larger bodied ones being the most threatened. Our study provides a clear warning of the impact of habitat loss on island endemic biotas.     

Plant traits and extinction in urban areas: a meta‐analysis of 11 cities

Aim Urban environments around the world share many features in common, including the local extinction of native plant species. We tested the hypothesis that similarity in environmental conditions among urban areas should select for plant species with a particular suite of traits suited to those conditions, and lead to the selective extinction of species lacking those traits. Location Eleven cities with data on the plant species that persisted and those that went locally extinct within at least the last 100 years following urbanization. Methods We compiled data on 11 plant traits for 8269 native species in the 11 cities and used hierarchical logistic regression models to identify the degree to which traits could distinguish species that persisted from those that went locally extinct in each city. The trait effects from each city were then combined in a meta‐analysis. Results The cities fell into two groups: those with relatively low rates of extinction (less than 0.05% species per year – Adelaide, Hong Kong, Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco), for which no traits reliably predicted the pattern of extinction, and those with higher rates of extinction (> 0.08% species per year – Auckland, Chicago, Melbourne, New York, Singapore and Worcester, MA), where short‐statured, small‐seeded plants were more likely to go extinct. Main conclusions Our analysis reveals patterns in trait selectivity consistent with local studies, suggesting some consistency in trait selection by urbanization. Overall, however, few traits reliably predicted the pattern of plant extinction across cities, making it difficult to identify a priori the extinction‐prone species most likely to be affected by urban expansion.     

The role of infectious diseases in biological conservation

Recent increases in the magnitude and rate of environmental change, including habitat loss, climate change and overexploitation, have been directly linked to the global loss of biodiversity. Wildlife extinction rates are estimated to be 100–1000 times greater than the historical norm, and up to 50% of higher taxonomic groups are critically endangered. While many types of environmental changes threaten the survival of species all over the planet, infectious disease has rarely been cited as the primary cause of global species extinctions. There is substantial evidence, however, that diseases can greatly impact local species populations by causing temporary or permanent declines in abundance. More importantly, pathogens can interact with other driving factors, such as habitat loss, climate change, overexploitation, invasive species and environmental pollution to contribute to local and global extinctions. Regrettably, our current lack of knowledge about the diversity and abundance of pathogens in natural systems has made it difficult to establish the relative importance of disease as a significant driver of species extinction, and the context when this is most likely to occur. Here, we review the role of infectious diseases in biological conservation. We summarize existing knowledge of disease-induced extinction at global and local scales and review the ecological and evolutionary forces that may facilitate disease-mediated extinction risk. We suggest that while disease alone may currently threaten few species, pathogens may be a significant threat to already-endangered species, especially when disease interacts with other drivers. We identify control strategies that may help reduce the negative effects of disease on wildlife and discuss the most critical challenges and future directions for the study of infectious diseases in the conservation sciences.     

How much gene flow is needed to avoid inbreeding depression in wild tiger populations?

The number and size of tiger populations continue to decline owing to habitat loss, habitat fragmentation and poaching of tigers and their prey. As a result, tiger populations have become small and highly structured. Current populations have been isolated since the early 1970s or for approximately seven generations. The objective of this study is to explore how inbreeding may be affecting the persistence of remaining tiger populations and how dispersal, either natural or artificial, may reduce the potentially detrimental effect of inbreeding depression. We developed a tiger simulation model and used published levels of genetic load in mammals to simulate inbreeding depression. Following a 50 year period of population isolation, we introduced one to four dispersing male tigers per generation to explore how gene flow from nearby populations may reduce the negative impact of inbreeding depression. For the smallest populations, even four dispersing male tigers per generation did not increase population viability, and the likelihood of extinction is more than 90% within 30 years. Unless habitat connectivity is restored or animals are artificially introduced in the next 70 years, medium size wild populations are also likely to go extinct, with only four to five of the largest wild tiger populations likely to remain extant in this same period without intervention. To reduce the risk of local extinction, habitat connectivity must be pursued concurrently with efforts to increase population size (e.g. enhance habitat quality, increase habitat availability). It is critical that infrastructure development, dam construction and other similar projects are planned appropriately so that they do not erode the extent or quality of habitat for these populations so that they can truly serve as future source populations.     

Extinction and endemism in the New Zealand avifauna

Aim Species belonging to higher taxa endemic to islands are more likely to go extinct following human arrival. This selectivity may occur because more highly endemic island species possess features that make them uniquely vulnerable to impacts associated with human arrival, specifically: (1) restricted distribution (2) reduced predator escape response, including loss of flight, and (3) life history traits, such as large body mass, associated with greater susceptibility to hunting or habitat loss. This study aims to identify which of these features can explain the selective extinction of more highly endemic bird species in New Zealand. Location North and South Island, New Zealand. Methods Bird species breeding in New Zealand prior to human arrival were classified according to whether they became extinct or not during two periods of human settlement, prehistoric (post‐Maori but pre‐European arrival) and historic (post‐European arrival). We modelled the relationships between extinction probability, level of endemism and life history traits in both periods. Results The prehistoric extinction–endemism relationship can be explained entirely by the selective extinction of large‐bodied species, whereas the historic extinction–endemism relationship appears due to increased susceptibility to introduced predators resulting from the loss of predator escape responses, including loss of flight. Conclusions These features may explain extinction–endemism relationships more generally, given that human hunting and predator introductions are major impacts associated with human arrival on islands.     

The shrinking ark: patterns of large mammal extinctions in India

Mammal extinctions are widespread globally, with South Asian species being most threatened. We examine local extinctions of 25 mammals in India. We use historical records to obtain a set of locations at which each species was known to have been present at some time in the last 200 years. We then use occupancy estimation models to draw inferences about current presence at these same locations based on field observations of local experts. We examine predictions about the influence of key factors such as protected areas, forest cover, elevation, human population density and cultural tolerance on species extinction. For all 25 species, estimated local extinction probabilities (referenced to a 100 year time frame) range between 0.14 and 0.96. Time elapsed since the historical occurrence record was an important determinant of extinction probability for 14 species. Protected areas are positively associated with lower extinction of 18 species, although many species occur outside them. We find evidence that higher proportion of forest cover is associated with lower extinction probabilities for seven species. However, for species that prefer open habitats (which have experienced intensive land-use change), forest cover alone appears insufficient to ensure persistence (the complement of extinction). We find that higher altitude is positively associated with lower extinction for eight species. Human population density is positively associated with extinction of 13 species. We find that ‘culturally tolerated’ species do exhibit higher persistence. Overall, large-bodied, rare and habitat specialist mammals tend to have higher extinction probabilities.     

栖息地毁坏与动物物种灭绝关系的模拟研究

利用多个物种共存模式模拟了不同情况下的不同动物种群演化的动力学特性,研究结果表明：（1）由于栖息地的毁坏所导致的动手的种灭绝是依赖于对物种死亡率和有关平衡态的假设的,不同的假设下,既使栖息地的破坏率相同,灭绝的物种可能是竞争能力最强的若干物种,也可能是竞争能力相对较弱的若干物种,既不象传统的物种进化理论所认为的必是弱的物种先灭绝,也不象Tilman等人所认为的一定是最强的若干物种先灭绝;（2）如果弱的物种具有较高的平均死亡率,则当栖息地受到一定的毁坏时,将有较多强的物种灭绝,而且物种灭绝时间将大大缩短;（3）在物种死亡率不变的情形下,物种在未受毁坏栖息地上的平衡态和大占有率pl^0,将有利于物种的生存。     

Plant species loss in an urban area (Turnhout, Belgium) from 1880 to 1999 and its environmental determinants

Information from four archival literature sources from the late 19^th century was matched to present-day plant species distribution data for the region of Turnhout (Belgium) and for 15 smaller sub-regions within this region. In the entire study area 25% of the species recorded in the late 19^th century went extinct during the 20^th century and the extinction rate doubled at the more detailed sub-region level. Binary survival-extinction data and continuous residuals from a linear regression between historical and present-day abundance categories were used to investigate underlying ecological factors of change including habitat preference, ecological amplitude and life strategy. Species increasing relative to the overall trend were generally correlated with nutrient-rich habitats while declining species were more associated with nutrient-poor situations. Generalist species have become relatively more common whilst habitat specialists have strongly declined, resulting in a flora with many ‘losers’ and a few tolerant ‘winners’. The winners are often competitive species while the losers are mainly stress-tolerating species and species with combined life strategies (e.g. SC, SR). Correlations between the decline of historically present habitats and extinction rates of related habitat specialist species show clear trends. We suggest the most important factors involved in changes in flora diversity and vegetation composition are habitat loss due to urbanization and habitat deterioration, mainly due to agricultural intensification.     

Environmental correlates of the Late Quaternary regional extinctions of large and small Palaearctic mammals

Most studies of mammal extinctions during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition explore the relative effects of climate change vs human impacts on these extinctions, but the relative importance of the different environmental factors involved remains poorly understood. Moreover, these studies are strongly biased towards megafauna, which may have been more influenced by human hunting than species of small body size. We examined the potential environmental causes of Pleistocene–Holocene mammal extinctions by linking regional environmental characteristics with the regional extinction rates of large and small mammals in 14 Palaearctic regions. We found that regional extinction rates were larger for megafauna, but extinction patterns across regions were similar for both size groups, emphasizing the importance of environmental change as an extinction factor as opposed to hunting. Still, the bias towards megafauna extinctions was larger in southern Europe and smaller in central Eurasia. The loss of suitable habitats, low macroclimatic heterogeneity within regions and an increase in precipitation were identified as the strongest predictors of regional extinction rates. Suitable habitats for many species of the Last Glacial fauna were grassland and desert, but not tundra or forest. The low‐extinction regions identified in central Eurasia are characterized by the continuous presence of grasslands and deserts until the present. In contrast, forest expansion associated with an increase in precipitation and temperature was likely the main factor causing habitat loss in the high‐extinction regions. The shift of grassland into tundra also contributed to the loss of suitable habitats in northern Eurasia. Habitat loss was more strongly related to the extinctions of megafauna than of small mammals. Ungulate species with low tolerance to deep snow were more likely to go regionally extinct. Thus, the increase in precipitation at the Pleistocene–Holocene transition may have also directly contributed to the extinctions by creating deep snow cover which decreases forage availability in winter.     

Historical bird and terrestrial mammal extinction rates and causes

Aim Conservation of species is an ongoing concern. Location Worldwide. Methods We examined historical extinction rates for birds and mammals and contrasted island and continental extinctions. Australia was included as an island because of its isolation. Results Only six continental birds and three continental mammals were recorded in standard databases as going extinct since 1500 compared to 123 bird species and 58 mammal species on islands. Of the extinctions, 95% were on islands. On a per unit area basis, the extinction rate on islands was 177 times higher for mammals and 187 times higher for birds than on continents. The continental mammal extinction rate was between 0.89 and 7.4 times the background rate, whereas the island mammal extinction rate was between 82 and 702 times background. The continental bird extinction rate was between 0.69 and 5.9 times the background rate, whereas for islands it was between 98 and 844 times the background rate. Undocumented prehistoric extinctions, particularly on islands, amplify these trends. Island extinction rates are much higher than continental rates largely because of introductions of alien predators (including man) and diseases. Main conclusions Our analysis suggests that conservation strategies for birds and mammals on continents should not be based on island extinction rates and that on islands the key factor to enhance conservation is to alleviate pressures from uncontrolled hunting and predation.     

Late Quaternary reptile extinctions: size matters,insularity dominates

Aim A major Late Quaternary vertebrate extinction event affected mostly large‐bodied ‘megafauna’. This is well documented in both mammals and birds, but evidence of a similar trend in reptiles is scant. We assess the relationship between body size and Late Quaternary extinction in reptiles at the global level. Location Global. Methods We compile a body size database for all 82 reptile species that are known to have gone extinct during the last 50,000 years and compare them with the sizes of 10,090 extant reptile species (97% of known extant diversity). We assess the body size distributions in the major reptile groups: crocodiles, lizards, snakes and turtles, while testing and correcting for a size bias in the fossil record. We examine geographical biases in extinction by contrasting mainland and insular reptile assemblages, and testing for biases within regions and then globally by using geographically weighted models. Results Extinct reptiles were larger than extant ones, but there was considerable variation in extinction size biases among groups. Extinct lizards and turtles were large, extinct crocodiles were small and there was no trend in snakes. Lizard lineages vary in the way their extinction is related to size. Extinctions were particularly prevalent on islands, with 73 of the 82 extinct species being island endemics. Four others occurred in Australia. The fossil record is biased towards large‐bodied reptiles, but extinct lizards were larger than extant ones even after we account for this. Main conclusions Body size played a complex role in the extinction of Late Quaternary reptiles. Larger lizard and turtle species were clearly more affected by extinction mechanisms such as over exploitation and invasive species, resulting in a prevalence of large‐bodied species among extinct taxa. Insularity was by far the strongest correlate of recent reptile extinctions, suggesting that size‐biased extinction mechanisms are amplified in insular environments.     

The fossil record of the sixth extinction

Comparing the magnitude of the current biodiversity crisis with those in the fossil record is difficult without an understanding of differential preservation. Integrating data from palaeontological databases with information on IUCN status, ecology and life history characteristics of contemporary mammals, we demonstrate that only a small and biased fraction of threatened species (< 9%) have a fossil record, compared with 20% of non‐threatened species. We find strong taphonomic biases related to body size and geographic range. Modern species with a fossil record tend to be large and widespread and were described in the 19^th century. The expected magnitude of the current extinction based only on species with a fossil record is about half of that of one based on all modern species; values for genera are similar. The record of ancient extinctions may be similarly biased, with many species having originated and gone extinct without leaving a tangible record.     

A refined model of body mass and population density in flightless birds reconciles extreme bimodal population estimates for extinct moa

Flightless birds were once the largest and heaviest terrestrial fauna on many archipelagos around the world. Robust approaches for estimating their population parameters are essential for understanding prehistoric insular ecosystems and extinction processes. Body mass and population density are negatively related for extant flightless bird species, providing a method for quantifying densities and population sizes of extinct flightless species. Here we assemble an updated global data set of body mass and population densities for extant flightless birds and estimate the relationship between these variables. We use generalised least squares models that account for phylogenetic relatedness and incorporate the effects of limiting factors (e.g. habitat suitability) on population density. We demonstrate the applicability of this allometric relationship to extinct species by estimating densities for each of the nine species of moa (Dinornithiformes) and generating a combined spatially explicit map of total moa density across New Zealand. To compare our density estimates with those previously published, we summed individual species' abundances to generate a mean national density of 2.02–9.66 birds km⁻² for low- and high-density scenarios, respectively. Our results reconcile the extreme bimodality of previous estimates (< 2 birds km⁻² and > 10 birds km⁻²) and are comparable to contemporary densities of large herbivorous wild mammals introduced into New Zealand about 150 yr ago. The revised moa density has little effect on the harvest rates required to bring about extinction within 150–200 yr, indicating that rapid extinction was an inevitable response to human hunting, irrespective of the initial population of moa.     

Characterizing population vulnerability for 758 species

We investigate relationships between life history traits and the character of population dynamics as revealed by time series data. Our classification of time series is according to 'extinction category,' where we identify three classes of populations: (i) weakly varying populations with such high growth rates that long-term persistence is likely (unless some extreme catastrophe occurs); (ii) populations with such low growth rates that average population size must be large to buffer them against extinction in a variable environment; and (iii) highly variable populations that fluctuate so dramatically that dispersal or some other refuge mechanism is likely to be key to their avoidance of extinction. Using 1941 time series representing 758 species from the Global Population Dynamics Database, we find that, depending on the form of density dependence one assumes, between 46 and 90% of species exhibit dynamics that are so variable that even large carrying capacities could not buffer them against extinction on a 100-year time horizon. The fact that such a large proportion of population dynamics are so locally variable vindicates the growing realization that dispersal, habitat connectedness, and large-scale processes are key to local persistence. Furthermore, for mammals, simply by knowing body size, age at first reproduction, and average number of offspring we could correctly predict extinction categories for 83% of species (60 of 72).     

破碎栖息地中物种灭绝机制

栖息地毁坏既会直接降低物种多度,又会间接地降低物种迁移繁殖力,同时还会改变原有的种间平衡.尽管已有研究表明栖息地毁坏是物种灭绝的主要原因之一,但是尚未揭示破碎的栖息地中物种灭绝的驱动机制.通过元胞自动机模拟了物种灭绝对栖息地毁坏空间异质性响应的基础上,进一步研究了栖息地毁坏和种间竞争对物种灭绝的影响.结果发现:强物种的灭绝主要来自栖息地毁坏,而弱物种的灭绝,在随机毁坏下,主要由栖息地毁坏与种间竞争共同决定,而在边缘毁坏下则主要由种间竞争所引起的.栖息地毁坏与种间竞争共同引起的物种灭绝的时间非常短,而栖息地毁坏或种间竞争所引起的物种灭绝时间则较长.     

集合种群动态对栖息地毁坏时空异质性的响应

栖息地毁坏既有时间异质性,也有空间异质性,而以往的研究往往只关注其中的一种。将两种不同的异质性共同引入到元胞自动机中,模拟了集合种群动态对栖息地毁坏时空异质性的响应。发现,在随机离散的栖息地毁坏下,由于物种的迁移繁殖力受栖息地毁坏的影响很大,迁移繁殖力弱而竞争力强的物种先灭绝。在连续的栖息地毁坏下,物种的迁移繁殖力受栖息地毁坏的影响较小,物种的灭绝由竞争力和迁移繁殖力共同决定:在有绝对优势种的群落里,种间竞争显著,弱物种先灭绝,而在没有绝对优势种的群落里,种间竞争较小,则以强物种先灭绝。因此,随机毁坏不利于强物种续存,而连续毁坏则不利于具有绝对优势种群的群落里的弱物种续存。在实际开发某一栖息地时,根据集合种群结构和被保护的对象采取相应的开发模式。