The Interactive Roles of Aedes aegypti Super-Production and Human Density in Dengue Transmission

Background

A. aegypti production and human density may vary considerably in dengue endemic areas. Understanding how interactions between these factors influence the risk of transmission could improve the effectiveness of the allocation of vector control resources. To evaluate the combined impacts of variation in A. aegypti production and human density we integrated field data with simulation modeling.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using data from seven censuses of A. aegypti pupae (2007–2009) and from demographic surveys, we developed an agent-based transmission model of the dengue transmission cycle across houses in 16 dengue-endemic urban ‘patches’ (1–3 city blocks each) of Armenia, Colombia. Our field data showed that 92% of pupae concentrated in only 5% of houses, defined as super-producers. Average secondary infections (R₀) depended on infrequent, but highly explosive transmission events. These super-spreading events occurred almost exclusively when the introduced infectious person infected mosquitoes that were produced in super-productive containers. Increased human density favored R₀, and when the likelihood of human introduction of virus was incorporated into risk, a strong interaction arose between vector production and human density. Simulated intervention of super-productive containers was substantially more effective in reducing dengue risk at higher human densities.

Significance/Conclusions

These results show significant interactions between human population density and the natural regulatory pattern of A. aegypti in the dynamics of dengue transmission. The large epidemiological significance of super-productive containers suggests that they have the potential to influence dengue viral adaptation to mosquitoes. Human population density plays a major role in dengue transmission, due to its potential impact on human-A. aegypti contact, both within a person''s home and when visiting others. The large variation in population density within typical dengue endemic cities suggests that it should be a major consideration in dengue control policy.     

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Dengue Transmission along a Red Sea Coastline: A Longitudinal Entomological and Serological Survey in Port Sudan City

Background

Dengue is an emerging health problem in several coastlines along the Red Sea. The objective of the present work is to elucidate spatial and temporal patterns of dengue transmission in Port Sudan.

Methods/Findings

A longitudinal study with three cross-sectional surveys was carried out in upper, middle and lower class neighborhoods, from November 2008 to October 2009. Monthly, entomological surveys were followed by serological surveys in dengue vector-positive houses. Meteorological records were obtained from two weather stations in the city during the same time. Overall, 2825 houses were inspected. Aedes aegypti represented 65% (35,714/54,944) and 68% (2526/3715) of the collected larvae and pupae, respectively. Out of 4640 drinking water containers, 2297 were positive for Ae. aegypti. Clay-pots “Zeirr” followed by plastic barrels were key productive containers for pupae of dengue vector, 63% (n = 3959) and 26% (n = 1651), respectively. A total of 791 blood samples were tested using PanBio Capture/Indirect IgM ELISA. Overall, the sero-prevalence rate of dengue ranged between 3%–8% (41/791), compared to an incidence of 29–40 new cases per 10,000 (193/54886) in the same examined population. Lower and middle class neighborhoods had higher entomological indices compared with upper class ones (p<0.001). Although, dengue incidence rate was significantly lower in the middle and lower class neighborhoods (F = 73.97, d.f. = 2, p<0.001), no difference in IgM prevalence was shown. The city is subject to two transmission peaks in the winter (i.e. November–January), and summer (i.e. June–August). The serological peaks of dengue are preceded by entomological peaks that occur before the onset of winter (November) and summer (March) respectively.

Conclusion

Dengue incidence is heterogeneously distributed across the neighborhoods of Port Sudan and exhibits a bi-cyclic intra-annual pattern. Hence, it should be feasible to carry out timely vector control measures to prevent or reduce dengue transmission.     

Dengue Virus in Sub-tropical Northern and Central Viet Nam: Population Immunity and Climate Shape Patterns of Viral Invasion and Maintenance

Dengue virus transmission occurs in both epidemic and endemic cycles across tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. Incidence is particularly high in much of Southeast Asia, where hyperendemic transmission plagues both urban and rural populations. However, endemicity has not been established in some areas with climates that may not support year-round viral transmission. An understanding of how dengue viruses (DENV) enter these environments and whether the viruses persist in inapparent local transmission cycles is central to understanding how dengue emerges in areas at the margins of endemic transmission. Dengue is highly endemic in tropical southern Vietnam, while increasingly large seasonal epidemics have occurred in northern Viet Nam over the last decade. We have investigated the spread of DENV-1 throughout Vietnam to determine the routes by which the virus enters northern and central regions of the country. Phylogeographic analysis of 1,765 envelope (E) gene sequences from Southeast Asia revealed frequent movement of DENV between neighboring human populations and strong local clustering of viral lineages. Long-distance migration of DENV between human population centers also occurred regularly and on short time-scales, indicating human-mediated viral invasion into northern Vietnam. Human populations in southern Vietnam were found to be the primary source of DENV circulating throughout the country, while central and northern Vietnam acted as sink populations, likely due to reduced connectedness to other populations in the case of the central regions and to the influence of temperature variability on DENV replication and vector survival and competence in the north. Finally, phylogeographic analyses suggested that viral movement follows a gravity model and indicates that population immunity and physical and economic connections between populations may play important roles in shaping patterns of DENV transmission.     

Households as Foci for Dengue Transmission in Highly Urban Vietnam

Background

Dengue control programs commonly employ reactive insecticide spraying around houses of reported cases, with the assumption that most dengue virus (DENV) transmission occurs in the home. Focal household transmission has been demonstrated in rural settings, but it is unclear whether this holds true in dense and mobile urban populations. We conducted a prospective study of dengue clustering around households in highly urban Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.

Methods

We enrolled 71 index cases with suspected dengue (subsequently classified as 52 dengue cases and 19 non-dengue controls); each initiated the enrollment of a cluster of 25–35 household members and neighbors who were followed up over 14 days. Incident DENV infections in cluster participants were identified by RT-PCR, NS1-ELISA, and/or DENV-IgM/-IgG seroconversion, and recent infections by DENV-IgM positivity at baseline.

Principal Findings/Conclusions

There was no excess risk of DENV infection within dengue case clusters during the two-week follow-up, compared to control clusters, but the prevalence of recent DENV infection at baseline was two-fold higher in case clusters than controls (OR 2.3, 95%CI 1.0–5.1, p = 0.05). Prevalence of DENV infection in Aedes aegypti was similar in case and control houses, and low overall (1%). Our findings are broadly consistent with household clustering of dengue risk, but indicate that any clustering is at a short temporal scale rather than sustained chains of localized transmission. This suggests that reactive perifocal insecticide spraying may have a limited impact in this setting.     

Optimal timing of insecticide fogging to minimize dengue cases: modeling dengue transmission among various seasonalities and transmission intensities

Background

Dengue infection is endemic in many regions throughout the world. While insecticide fogging targeting the vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is a major control measure against dengue epidemics, the impact of this method remains controversial. A previous mathematical simulation study indicated that insecticide fogging minimized cases when conducted soon after peak disease prevalence, although the impact was minimal, possibly because seasonality and population immunity were not considered. Periodic outbreak patterns are also highly influenced by seasonal climatic conditions. Thus, these factors are important considerations when assessing the effect of vector control against dengue. We used mathematical simulations to identify the appropriate timing of insecticide fogging, considering seasonal change of vector populations, and to evaluate its impact on reducing dengue cases with various levels of transmission intensity.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We created the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model of dengue virus transmission. Mosquito lifespan was assumed to change seasonally and the optimal timing of insecticide fogging to minimize dengue incidence under various lengths of the wet season was investigated. We also assessed whether insecticide fogging was equally effective at higher and lower endemic levels by running simulations over a 500-year period with various transmission intensities to produce an endemic state. In contrast to the previous study, the optimal application of insecticide fogging was between the onset of the wet season and the prevalence peak. Although it has less impact in areas that have higher endemicity and longer wet seasons, insecticide fogging can prevent a considerable number of dengue cases if applied at the optimal time.

Conclusions/Significance

The optimal timing of insecticide fogging and its impact on reducing dengue cases were greatly influenced by seasonality and the level of transmission intensity. We suggest that these factors should be considered when planning a control strategy against dengue vectors.     

Co-occurrence Patterns of the Dengue Vector Aedes aegypti and Aedes mediovitattus, a Dengue Competent Mosquito in Puerto Rico

Aedes aegypti is implicated in dengue transmission in tropical and subtropical urban areas around the world. Ae. aegypti populations are controlled through integrative vector management. However, the efficacy of vector control may be undermined by the presence of alternative, competent species. In Puerto Rico, a native mosquito, Ae. mediovittatus, is a competent dengue vector in laboratory settings and spatially overlaps with Ae. aegypti. It has been proposed that Ae. mediovittatus may act as a dengue reservoir during inter-epidemic periods, perpetuating endemic dengue transmission in rural Puerto Rico. Dengue transmission dynamics may therefore be influenced by the spatial overlap of Ae. mediovittatus, Ae. aegypti, dengue viruses, and humans. We take a landscape epidemiology approach to examine the association between landscape composition and configuration and the distribution of each of these Aedes species and their co-occurrence. We used remotely sensed imagery from a newly launched satellite to map landscape features at very high spatial resolution. We found that the distribution of Ae. aegypti is positively predicted by urban density and by the number of tree patches, Ae. mediovittatus is positively predicted by the number of tree patches, but negatively predicted by large contiguous urban areas, and both species are predicted by urban density and the number of tree patches. This analysis provides evidence that landscape composition and configuration is a surrogate for mosquito community composition, and suggests that mapping landscape structure can be used to inform vector control efforts as well as to inform urban planning.     

Synthetic 1,4-Pyran Naphthoquinones Are Potent Inhibitors of Dengue Virus Replication

Dengue virus infection is a serious public health problem in endemic areas of the world where 2.5 billion people live. Clinical manifestations of the Dengue infection range from a mild fever to fatal cases of hemorrhagic fever. Although being the most rapidly spreading mosquito-borne viral infection in the world, until now no strategies are available for effective prevention or control of Dengue infection. In this scenario, the development of compounds that specifically inhibit viral replication with minimal effects to the human hosts will have a substantial effect in minimizing the symptoms of the disease and help to prevent viral transmission in the affected population. The aim of this study was to screen compounds with potential activity against dengue virus from a library of synthetic naphthoquinones. Several 1,2- and 1,4-pyran naphthoquinones were synthesized by a three-component reaction of lawsone, aldehyde (formaldehyde or arylaldehydes) and different dienophiles adequately substituted. These compounds were tested for the ability to inhibit the ATPase activity of the viral NS3 enzyme in in vitro assays and the replication of dengue virus in cultured cells. We have identified two 1,4-pyran naphthoquinones, which inhibited dengue virus replication in mammal cells by 99.0% and three others that reduced the dengue virus ATPase activity of NS3 by two-fold in in vitro assays.     

A Rapid and Improved Method to Generate Recombinant Dengue Virus Vaccine Candidates

Dengue is one of the most important mosquito-borne infections accounting for severe morbidity and mortality worldwide. Recently, the tetravalent chimeric live attenuated Dengue vaccine Dengvaxia^® was approved for use in several dengue endemic countries. In general, live attenuated vaccines (LAV) are very efficacious and offer long-lasting immunity against virus-induced disease. Rationally designed LAVs can be generated through reverse genetics technology, a method of generating infectious recombinant viruses from full length cDNA contained in bacterial plasmids. In vitro transcribed (IVT) viral RNA from these infectious clones is transfected into susceptible cells to generate recombinant virus. However, the generation of full-length dengue virus cDNA clones can be difficult due to the genetic instability of viral sequences in bacterial plasmids. To circumvent the need for a single plasmid containing a full length cDNA, in vitro ligation of two or three cDNA fragments contained in separate plasmids can be used to generate a full-length dengue viral cDNA template. However, in vitro ligation of multiple fragments often yields low quality template for IVT reactions, resulting in inconsistent low yield RNA. These technical difficulties make recombinant virus recovery less efficient. In this study, we describe a simple, rapid and efficient method of using LONG-PCR to recover recombinant chimeric Yellow fever dengue (CYD) viruses as potential dengue vaccine candidates. Using this method, we were able to efficiently generate several viable recombinant viruses without introducing any artificial mutations into the viral genomes. We believe that the techniques reported here will enable rapid and efficient recovery of recombinant flaviviruses for evaluation as vaccine candidates and, be applicable to the recovery of other RNA viruses.     

Spatial Evaluation and Modeling of Dengue Seroprevalence and Vector Density in Rio de Janeiro,Brazil

Background

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, experienced a severe dengue fever epidemic in 2008. This was the worst epidemic ever, characterized by a sharp increase in case-fatality rate, mainly among younger individuals. A combination of factors, such as climate, mosquito abundance, buildup of the susceptible population, or viral evolution, could explain the severity of this epidemic. The main objective of this study is to model the spatial patterns of dengue seroprevalence in three neighborhoods with different socioeconomic profiles in Rio de Janeiro. As blood sampling coincided with the peak of dengue transmission, we were also able to identify recent dengue infections and visually relate them to Aedes aegypti spatial distribution abundance. We analyzed individual and spatial factors associated with seroprevalence using Generalized Additive Model (GAM).

Methodology/Principal Findings

Three neighborhoods were investigated: a central urban neighborhood, and two isolated areas characterized as a slum and a suburban area. Weekly mosquito collections started in September 2006 and continued until March 2008. In each study area, 40 adult traps and 40 egg traps were installed in a random sample of premises, and two infestation indexes calculated: mean adult density and mean egg density. Sera from individuals living in the three neighborhoods were collected before the 2008 epidemic (July through November 2007) and during the epidemic (February through April 2008). Sera were tested for DENV-reactive IgM, IgG, Nested RT-PCR, and Real Time RT-PCR. From the before–after epidemics paired data, we described seroprevalence, recent dengue infections (asymptomatic or not), and seroconversion. Recent dengue infection varied from 1.3% to 14.1% among study areas. The highest IgM seropositivity occurred in the slum, where mosquito abundance was the lowest, but household conditions were the best for promoting contact between hosts and vectors. By fitting spatial GAM we found dengue seroprevalence hotspots located at the entrances of the two isolated communities, which are commercial activity areas with high human movement. No association between recent dengue infection and household''s high mosquito abundance was observed in this sample.

Conclusions/Significance

This study contributes to better understanding the dynamics of dengue in Rio de Janeiro by assessing the relationship between dengue seroprevalence, recent dengue infection, and vector density. In conclusion, the variation in spatial seroprevalence patterns inside the neighborhoods, with significantly higher risk patches close to the areas with large human movement, suggests that humans may be responsible for virus inflow to small neighborhoods in Rio de Janeiro. Surveillance guidelines should be further discussed, considering these findings, particularly the spatial patterns for both human and mosquito populations.     

Factors Affecting Dengue Prevention Practices: Nationwide Survey of the Malaysian Public

Background

Efforts to stamp dengue in many dengue endemic countries has met little success. There is a need to re-examine and understand how the public at large view the dengue prevention efforts. This study aimed to examine the demographic factors, theoretical constructs of the Health Belief Model and knowledge about dengue and how these influence the practice of dengue prevention.

Methods

A national telephone survey was carried out with 2,512 individuals of the Malaysian public aged 18–60 years.

Results

The majority (73%) of the Malaysian public had a total dengue prevention score of 51–100 (of a possible score of 1–100). Multivariate analysis suggests significant correlates of higher dengue prevention practices with demographic background, perception of susceptibility to dengue, perceived density of mosquitoes in the neighbourhood and knowledge about dengue. Households of lower income of which the majority (40.7%) were from the rural areas, were associated with the highest odds [OR = 1.33; 95%CI = 1.09–1.67; p = 0.004] of dengue prevention. Dengue prevention practices were also less likely to be undertaken in neighbourhoods where the responders perceived there is no and/or low density of mosquitoes. Dengue prevention practices are also less likely to be practiced by skilled workers [OR = 0.78; 95%CI = 0.63–0.95; p = 0.029] compared to those unemployed. Higher perceived susceptibility to dengue was associated with higher dengue prevention practices and participants with higher dengue knowledge were found to have a higher level of involvement in dengue prevention practices.

Conclusion

Results from the study suggest that in formulating approaches to contain dengue, strategies should be developed to cultivate dengue prevention practices among urban population and target areas with low density of mosquitoes where public perceived a less likely chance of getting dengue. Dengue prevention campaigns should focus on messages highlighting the risk of contracting dengue and education to increase knowledge about dengue.     

MCP-1 and MIP-1α expression in a model resembling early immune response to dengue

Dengue virus has become endemic in most tropical urban areas throughout the world, and DHF has appeared concomitantly with this expansion. The intensity of dengue virus replication during the early stages of infection could determine clinical outcomes; therefore, it is important to understand the impact of dengue virus infection on the earliest immune defense against microbial infection, which also strongly regulates the adaptive immune responses. This study was aimed at evaluating the expression of the CC-chemokines MIP-1α/CCL3 and MCP-1/CCL2 in peripheral blood leukocytes using an ex vivo model resembling dengue infection in vivo, in subjects with a well characterized dengue immune background, due to the exceptional Cuban epidemiological situation in dengue. The expression of IFNγ, TNFα and IL10 was also evaluated, giving insight about the role of MCP-1 and MIP-1α in the interplay between innate and adaptive immunity. From individuals with different dengue immune background after dengue virus challenge, increased and different expression of the chemokines and cytokines studied was verified in peripheral blood mononuclear cells, thus demonstrating that the previous immunity to a dengue virus serotype has a strong influence on the early immune response after dengue re-infection.     

Spatial patterns in a discrete-time SIS patch model

How do spatial heterogeneity, habitat connectivity, and different movement rates among subpopulations combine to influence the observed spatial patterns of an infectious disease? To find out, we formulated and analyzed a discrete-time SIS patch model. Patch differences in local disease transmission and recovery rates characterize whether patches are low-risk or high-risk, and these differences collectively determine whether the spatial domain, or habitat, is low-risk or high-risk. In low-risk habitats, the disease persists only when the mobility of infected individuals lies below some threshold value, but for high-risk habitats, the disease always persists. When the disease does persist, then there exists an endemic equilibrium (EE) which is unique and positive everywhere. This EE tends to a spatially inhomogeneous disease-free equilibrium (DFE) as the mobility of susceptible individuals tends to zero. The limiting DFE is nonempty on all low-risk patches and it is empty on at least one high-risk patch. Sufficient conditions for the limiting DFE to be empty on other high-risk patches are given in terms of disease transmission and recovery rates, habitat connectivity, and the infected movement rate. These conditions are also illustrated using numerical examples.     

An SIS patch model with variable transmission coefficients

In this paper, an SIS patch model with non-constant transmission coefficients is formulated to investigate the effect of media coverage and human movement on the spread of infectious diseases among patches. The basic reproduction number R₀ is determined. It is shown that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R₀?1, and the disease is uniformly persistent and there exists at least one endemic equilibrium if R₀>1. In particular, when the disease is non-fatal and the travel rates of susceptible and infectious individuals in each patch are the same, the endemic equilibrium is unique and is globally asymptotically stable as R₀>1. Numerical calculations are performed to illustrate some results for the case with two patches.     

The Hidden Burden of Dengue and Chikungunya in Chennai,India

Background

Dengue and chikungunya are rapidly expanding viruses transmitted by mosquitoes of the genus Aedes. Few epidemiological studies have examined the extent of transmission of these infections in South India despite an increase in the number of reported cases, and a high suitability for transmission.

Methods and findings

We conducted a household-based seroprevalence survey among 1010 individuals aged 5-40 years living in fifty randomly selected spatial locations in Chennai, Tamil Nadu. Participants were asked to provide a venous blood sample and to complete a brief questionnaire with basic demographic and daily activity information. Previous exposure to dengue and chikungunya was determined using IgG indirect ELISA (Panbio) and IgG ELISA (Novatec), respectively. We used this data to estimate key transmission parameters (force of infection and basic reproductive number) and to explore factors associated with seropositivity. While only 1% of participants reported history of dengue and 20% of chikungunya, we found that 93% (95%CI 89-95%) of participants were seropositive to dengue virus, and 44% (95%CI 37-50%) to chikungunya. Age-specific seroprevalence was consistent with long-tem, endemic circulation of dengue and suggestive of epidemic chikungunya transmission. Seropositivity to dengue and chikungunya were significantly correlated, even after adjusting for individual and household factors. We estimate that 23% of the susceptible population gets infected by dengue each year, corresponding to approximately 228,000 infections. This transmission intensity is significantly higher than that estimated in known hyperendemic settings in Southeast Asia and the Americas.

Conclusions

These results provide unprecedented insight into the very high transmission potential of dengue and chikungunya in Chennai and underscore the need for enhanced surveillance and control methods.     

The impact of climate suitability,urbanisation, and connectivity on the expansion of dengue in 21st century Brazil

Dengue is hyperendemic in Brazil, with outbreaks affecting all regions. Previous studies identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in Brazil, beyond which certain areas, such as South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest, were relatively protected from outbreaks. Recent data shows these barriers are being eroded. In this study, we explore the drivers of this expansion and identify the current limits to the dengue transmission zone. We used a spatio-temporal additive model to explore the associations between dengue outbreaks and temperature suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity to the Brazilian urban network. The model was applied to a binary outbreak indicator, assuming the official threshold value of 300 cases per 100,000 residents, for Brazil’s municipalities between 2001 and 2020. We found a nonlinear relationship between higher levels of connectivity to the Brazilian urban network and the odds of an outbreak, with lower odds in metropoles compared to regional capitals. The number of months per year with suitable temperature conditions for Aedes mosquitoes was positively associated with the dengue outbreak occurrence. Temperature suitability explained most interannual and spatial variation in South Brazil, confirming this geographical barrier is influenced by lower seasonal temperatures. Municipalities that had experienced an outbreak previously had double the odds of subsequent outbreaks. We identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in South Brazil, western Amazon, and along the northern coast of Brazil. Although a southern barrier still exists, it has shifted south, and the Amazon no longer has a clear boundary. Few areas of Brazil remain protected from dengue outbreaks. Communities living on the edge of previous barriers are particularly susceptible to future outbreaks as they lack immunity. Control strategies should target regions at risk of future outbreaks as well as those currently within the dengue transmission zone.     

Characteristics of a Dengue Outbreak in a Remote Pacific Island Chain – Republic of the Marshall Islands, 2011–2012

Dengue is a potentially fatal acute febrile illness caused by four mosquito-transmitted dengue viruses (DENV-1–4). Although dengue outbreaks regularly occur in many regions of the Pacific, little is known about dengue in the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI). To better understand dengue in RMI, we investigated an explosive outbreak that began in October 2011. Suspected cases were reported to the Ministry of Health, serum specimens were tested with a dengue rapid diagnostic test (RDT), and confirmatory testing was performed using RT-PCR and IgM ELISA. Laboratory-positive cases were defined by detection of DENV nonstructural protein 1 by RDT, DENV nucleic acid by RT-PCR, or anti-DENV IgM antibody by RDT or ELISA. Secondary infection was defined by detection of anti-DENV IgG antibody by ELISA in a laboratory-positive acute specimen. During the four months of the outbreak, 1,603 suspected dengue cases (3% of the RMI population) were reported. Of 867 (54%) laboratory-positive cases, 209 (24%) had dengue with warning signs, six (0.7%) had severe dengue, and none died. Dengue incidence was highest in residents of Majuro and individuals aged 10–29 years, and ∼95% of dengue cases were experiencing secondary infection. Only DENV-4 was detected by RT-PCR, which phylogenetic analysis demonstrated was most closely related to a virus previously identified in Southeast Asia. Cases of vertical DENV transmission, and DENV/Salmonella Typhi and DENV/Mycobacterium leprae co-infection were identified. Entomological surveys implicated water storage containers and discarded tires as the most important development sites for Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, respectively. Although this is the first documented dengue outbreak in RMI, the age groups of cases and high prevalence of secondary infection demonstrate prior DENV circulation. Dengue surveillance should continue to be strengthened in RMI and throughout the Pacific to identify and rapidly respond to future outbreaks.     

Global patterns of aegyptism without arbovirus

The world’s most important mosquito vector of viruses, Aedes aegypti, is found around the world in tropical, subtropical and even some temperate locations. While climate change may limit populations of Ae. aegypti in some regions, increasing temperatures will likely expand its territory thus increasing risk of human exposure to arboviruses in places like Europe, Northern Australia and North America, among many others. Most studies of Ae. aegypti biology and virus transmission focus on locations with high endemicity or severe outbreaks of human amplified urban arboviruses, such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses, but rarely on areas at the margins of endemicity. The objective in this study is to explore previously published global patterns in the environmental suitability for Ae. aegypti and dengue virus to reveal deviations in the probability of the vector and human disease occurring. We developed a map showing one end of the gradient being higher suitability of Ae. aegypti with low suitability of dengue and the other end of the spectrum being equal and higher environmental suitability for both Ae. aegypti and dengue. The regions of the world with Ae. aegypti environmental suitability and no endemic dengue transmission exhibits a phenomenon we term ‘aegyptism without arbovirus’. We then tested what environmental and socioeconomic variables influence this deviation map revealing a significant association with human population density, suggesting that locations with lower human population density were more likely to have a higher probability of aegyptism without arbovirus. Characterizing regions of the world with established populations of Ae. aegypti but little to no autochthonous transmission of human-amplified arboviruses is an important step in understanding and achieving aegyptism without arbovirus.     

The Spread of Dengue in an Endemic Urban Milieu–The Case of Delhi,India

Background

Dengue is a major international public health concern, one of the most important arthropod-borne diseases. More than 3.5 billion people are at risk of dengue infection and there are an estimated 390 million dengue infections annually. This prolific increase has been connected to societal changes such as population growth and increasing urbanization generating intense agglomeration leading to proliferation of synanthropic mosquito species. Quantifying the spatio-temporal epidemiology of dengue in large cities within the context of a Geographic Information System is a first step in the identification of socio-economic risk factors.

Methodology/Principal Findings

This Project has been approved by the ethical committee of Institut Pasteur. Data has been anonymized and de-identified prior to geolocalisation and analysis. A GIS was developed for Delhi, enabling typological characterization of the urban environment. Dengue cases identified in the Delhi surveillance system from 2008 to 2010 were collated, localised and embedded within this GIS. The spatio-temporal distribution of dengue cases and extent of clustering were analyzed. Increasing distance from the forest in Delhi reduced the risk of occurrence of a dengue case. Proximity to a hospital did not increase risk of a notified dengue case. Overall, there was high heterogeneity in incidence rate within areas with the same socio-economical profiles and substantial inter-annual variability. Dengue affected the poorest areas with high density of humans, but rich areas were also found to be infected, potentially because of their central location with respect to the daily mobility network of Delhi. Dengue cases were highly clustered in space and there was a strong relationship between the time of introduction of the virus and subsequent cluster size. At a larger scale, earlier introduction predicted the total number of cases.

Conclusions/Significance

DENV epidemiology within Delhi has a forest fire signature. The stochastic nature of this invasion process likely smothers any detectable socio-economic risk factors. However, the significant finding that the size of the dengue case cluster depends on the timing of its emergence emphasizes the need for early case detection and implementation of effective mosquito control. A better understanding of the role of population mobility in contributing to dengue risk could also help focus control on areas at particular risk of dengue virus importation.     

Comparison of Three Commercially Available Dengue NS1 Antigen Capture Assays for Acute Diagnosis of Dengue in Brazil

Background

Dengue is associated with explosive urban epidemics and has become a major public health problem in many tropical developing countries, including Brazil. The laboratory diagnosis of dengue can be carried out using several approaches, however sensitive and specific assays useful to diagnose in the early stage of fever are desirable. The flavivirus non-structural protein NS1, a highly conserved and secreted glycoprotein, is a candidate protein for rapid diagnosis of dengue in endemic countries.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We aimed to evaluate the potential use of 3 commercial kits in a panel of 450 serum samples for early diagnosis of dengue in Brazil. The PanBio Early ELISA (PanBio Diagnostics) showed a sensitivity of 72.3% (159/220) and a specificity of 100%, while the sensitivity of the Platelia™ NS1 assay (Biorad Laboratories) was 83.6% (184/220). However, the highest sensitivity (89.6%; 197/220) was obtained by using the NS1 Ag Strip (Biorad Laboratories). A lower sensitivity was observed in DENV-3 cases by all 3 kits. Serum positive by virus isolation were more often positive than cases positive by RT-PCR by all three assays and a higher detection rate was observed during the first four days after the onset of the symptoms. The presence or absence of IgM showed no influence in the confirmation by the pan-E Early ELISA (P = 0,6159). However, a higher confirmation by both Platelia™ NS1 (Biorad) and Dengue NS1 Ag Strip (Biorad) in the absence of IgM was statistically significant (P<0,0001 and P = 0,0008, respectively). Only the Platelia™ NS1 test showed a higher sensitivity in confirming primary infections than secondary ones.

Conclusions/Significance

The results indicate that commercial kits of dengue NS1 antigen are useful for the laboratory diagnosis of acute primary and secondary dengue. It can be used in combination with the MAC-ELISA for case detection and as screening test to complement viral isolation.