Suppressed recovery of functionally important branching Acropora drives coral community composition changes following mass bleaching in Indonesia

Mass coral bleaching events may have disproportionate effects on branching corals, leading to coral community restructuring, reduced biodiversity, and decreased structural complexity. This affects overall reef health and resilience. Functionally important, fast-growing branching Acropora corals were a historically dominant and vital component of Indonesian reefs throughout the twentieth century, yet the genus is also one of the most vulnerable to external stressors. This study used long-term annual reef monitoring data from Indonesia’s Wakatobi Marine National Park (WMNP) to investigate the effects of a mass bleaching event in 2010 on Acropora and other branching corals, evaluate their post-disturbance recovery trajectories, and analyse shifts in coral community composition. Post-bleaching scleractinian coral cover decreased across study sites, with losses in branching corals especially evident. Long-term branching Acropora cover decreased significantly and failed to demonstrate the significant post-disturbance recovery of other branching corals (especially Porites). In areas characterised by relatively high branching Acropora cover (> 15% mean cover) prior to bleaching, long-term coral community composition changes have trended predominately towards branching and massive Porites and branching Montipora. The novelty and key contribution of this study is that results suggest suppressed recovery of Acropora in the WMNP. Contributing factors may include the Allee effect (inhibition of reproduction at low population densities), other forms of inhibited larval recruitment, direct and indirect spatial competition, and changes in the physical reef habitat. These findings have critical implications for this functionally important taxon, future reef conservation efforts, and overall reef health and resilience in the park.

     

Temporal clustering of tropical cyclones on the Great Barrier Reef and its ecological importance

Tropical cyclones have been a major cause of reef coral decline during recent decades, including on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). While cyclones are a natural element of the disturbance regime of coral reefs, the role of temporal clustering has previously been overlooked. Here, we examine the consequences of different types of cyclone temporal distributions (clustered, stochastic or regular) on reef ecosystems. We subdivided the GBR into 14 adjoining regions, each spanning roughly 300 km, and quantified both the rate and clustering of cyclones using dispersion statistics. To interpret the consequences of such cyclone variability for coral reef health, we used a model of observed coral population dynamics. Results showed that clustering occurs on the margins of the cyclone belt, being strongest in the southern reefs and the far northern GBR, which also has the lowest cyclone rate. In the central GBR, where rates were greatest, cyclones had a relatively regular temporal pattern. Modelled dynamics of the dominant coral genus, Acropora, suggest that the long-term average cover might be more than 13 % greater (in absolute cover units) under a clustered cyclone regime compared to stochastic or regular regimes. Thus, not only does cyclone clustering vary significantly along the GBR but such clustering is predicted to have a marked, and management-relevant, impact on the status of coral populations. Additionally, we use our regional clustering and rate results to sample from a library of over 7000 synthetic cyclone tracks for the GBR. This allowed us to provide robust reef-scale maps of annual cyclone frequency and cyclone impacts on Acropora. We conclude that assessments of coral reef vulnerability need to account for both spatial and temporal cyclone distributions.

     

Spatial and seasonal reef calcification in corals and calcareous crusts in the central Red Sea

The existence of coral reef ecosystems critically relies on the reef carbonate framework produced by scleractinian corals and calcareous crusts (i.e., crustose coralline algae). While the Red Sea harbors one of the longest connected reef systems in the world, detailed calcification data are only available from the northernmost part. To fill this knowledge gap, we measured in situ calcification rates of primary and secondary reef builders in the central Red Sea. We collected data on the major habitat-forming coral genera Porites, Acropora, and Pocillopora and also on calcareous crusts (CC) in a spatio-seasonal framework. The scope of the study comprised sheltered and exposed sites of three reefs along a cross-shelf gradient and over four seasons of the year. Calcification of all coral genera was consistent across the shelf and highest in spring. In addition, Pocillopora showed increased calcification at exposed reef sites. In contrast, CC calcification increased from nearshore, sheltered to offshore, exposed reef sites, but also varied over seasons. Comparing our data to other reef locations, calcification in the Red Sea was in the range of data collected from reefs in the Caribbean and Indo-Pacific; however, Acropora calcification estimates were at the lower end of worldwide rates. Our study shows that the increasing coral cover from nearshore to offshore environments aligned with CC calcification but not coral calcification, highlighting the potentially important role of CC in structuring reef cover and habitats. While coral calcification maxima have been typically observed during summer in many reef locations worldwide, calcification maxima during spring in the central Red Sea indicate that summer temperatures exceed the optima of reef calcifiers in this region. This study provides a foundation for comparative efforts and sets a baseline to quantify impact of future environmental change in the central Red Sea.

     

Branching coral as a macroalgal refuge in a marginal coral reef system

Marginal coral reef systems may provide valuable insights into the nature of ecosystem processes in systems on the trajectory towards a phase shift to an alternate ecosystem state. This study investigates the process of herbivory in a marginal coral reef system in the Keppel Islands at the southern end of the Great Barrier Reef. Branching Acropora coral and the brown macroalga Lobophora variegata occupied up to 95% of the reef crest substratum at the three surveyed reefs. Feeding rates of herbivorous fishes and removal rates of Lobophora were directly quantified within areas of branching Acropora and on planar surfaces. Feeding rates by herbivorous fishes were habitat dependent with the highest bite rates being found in planar habitats for both Lobophora and the epilithic algal matrix (EAM) by 1–2 orders of magnitude, respectively. Feeding rates on Lobophora were, however, much lower than rates on the EAM. The low rates of Lobophora removal and significantly lower rates of herbivory in branching habitats were consistent with the high biomass of this brown alga throughout the Keppel Islands and with its distribution on reef crests, where Lobophora biomass was 20 times greater in branching than in planar habitats. This lack of feeding by herbivorous fishes within branching coral habitats in the Keppel Islands contrasts with the typical role of coral and topographic complexity on herbivores on coral reefs and highlights the potential for complex interactions between algae, corals and fishes on coral reefs. On marginal systems, herbivory may modify algal distributions but may be unable to contain the proliferation of algae such as Lobophora.     

The composition and structure of a protected coral reef in Cam Ranh Bay in the South China Sea

A nonstructural reef at Hon Nai Island in Cam Ranh Bay (southern Vietnam) was investigated. In comparison with most of the coastal continental and island coral reefs of this region, it is characterized by high species richness of reef-building corals, among them scleractinians. A total of 34 species of Acropora were found, which represent 80% of the total species composition of this scleractinian genus on the reefs of Vietnam and 25% on the reefs of the Indo-Pacific. Among 169 species of scleractinians found on the reef of Hon Nai, Favia sp. nov. was previously unknown to science. The vertical bionomic zonality of the reef corresponds to a zonal distribution of environmental factors and is similar to that on reefs of the Gulf of Siam and various areas of the Pacific and the Caribbean Basin. The thriving of the Hon Nai island reef may be connected with protective measures undertaken by the Government of Vietnam and the minimization of anthropogenic impacts due to the activities of the Sanest Co.     

Coral frameworks revisited–reefs and coral carpets in the northern Red Sea

 Coral communities were investigated in the northern Red Sea, in the Gulfs of Suez and Aqaba, for their framework building potential. Five types of coral frameworks were differentiated: Acropora reef framework, Porites reef framework, Porites carpet, faviid carpet, and Stylophora carpet. Two non-framework community types were found: the Stylophora-Acropora community, and soft coral communities. Reef frameworks show a clear ecological zonation along depth and hydrodynamic exposure gradients, with clear indicator communities for each zone. By definition, coral carpets build a framework but lack distinct zonation patterns since they grow only in areas without pronounced gradients. In the northern Red Sea they show a gradual change with depth from Porites to faviid dominance. A Stylophora carpet is restricted to shallow water in the northern Gulf of Suez. Although growth rates of carpets may be somewhat less than those of reefs, the carbonate accumulation is considered to be higher in carpet areas due to their significantly higher areal extension. In addition, reefs and carpets have different sediment retention characteristics – the carpet retains, the reef exports. The in situ fossilization potential of coral carpets is expected to be higher than that of reef frameworks. Accepted: 25 May 1999     

Congruent patterns of connectivity can inform management for broadcast spawning corals on the Great Barrier Reef

Connectivity underpins the persistence and recovery of marine ecosystems. The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is the world's largest coral reef ecosystem and managed by an extensive network of no‐take zones; however, information about connectivity was not available to optimize the network's configuration. We use multivariate analyses, Bayesian clustering algorithms and assignment tests of the largest population genetic data set for any organism on the GBR to date (Acropora tenuis, >2500 colonies; >50 reefs, genotyped for ten microsatellite loci) to demonstrate highly congruent patterns of connectivity between this common broadcast spawning reef‐building coral and its congener Acropora millepora (~950 colonies; 20 reefs, genotyped for 12 microsatellite loci). For both species, there is a genetic divide at around 19°S latitude, most probably reflecting allopatric differentiation during the Pleistocene. GBR reefs north of 19°S are essentially panmictic whereas southern reefs are genetically distinct with higher levels of genetic diversity and population structure, most notably genetic subdivision between inshore and offshore reefs south of 19°S. These broadly congruent patterns of higher genetic diversities found on southern GBR reefs most likely represent the accumulation of alleles via the southward flowing East Australia Current. In addition, signatures of genetic admixture between the Coral Sea and outer‐shelf reefs in the northern, central and southern GBR provide evidence of recent gene flow. Our connectivity results are consistent with predictions from recently published larval dispersal models for broadcast spawning corals on the GBR, thereby providing robust connectivity information about the dominant reef‐building genus Acropora for coral reef managers.     

Ocean acidification and warming will lower coral reef resilience

Ocean warming and acidification from increasing levels of atmospheric CO₂ represent major global threats to coral reefs, and are in many regions exacerbated by local‐scale disturbances such as overfishing and nutrient enrichment. Our understanding of global threats and local‐scale disturbances on reefs is growing, but their relative contribution to reef resilience and vulnerability in the future is unclear. Here, we analyse quantitatively how different combinations of CO₂ and fishing pressure on herbivores will affect the ecological resilience of a simplified benthic reef community, as defined by its capacity to maintain and recover to coral‐dominated states. We use a dynamic community model integrated with the growth and mortality responses for branching corals (Acropora) and fleshy macroalgae (Lobophora). We operationalize the resilience framework by parameterizing the response function for coral growth (calcification) by ocean acidification and warming, coral bleaching and mortality by warming, macroalgal mortality by herbivore grazing and macroalgal growth via nutrient loading. The model was run for changes in sea surface temperature and water chemistry predicted by the rise in atmospheric CO₂ projected from the IPCC's fossil‐fuel intensive A1FI scenario during this century. Results demonstrated that severe acidification and warming alone can lower reef resilience (via impairment of coral growth and increased coral mortality) even under high grazing intensity and low nutrients. Further, the threshold at which herbivore overfishing (reduced grazing) leads to a coral–algal phase shift was lowered by acidification and warming. These analyses support two important conclusions: Firstly, reefs already subjected to herbivore overfishing and nutrification are likely to be more vulnerable to increasing CO₂. Secondly, under CO₂ regimes above 450–500 ppm, management of local‐scale disturbances will become critical to keeping reefs within an Acropora‐rich domain.     

Coral reproduction in the world��s warmest reefs: southern Persian Gulf (Dubai, United Arab Emirates)

Despite extensive research on coral reproduction from numerous geographic locations, there remains limited knowledge within the Persian Gulf. Given that corals in the Persian Gulf exist in one of the most stressful environments for reef corals, with annual variations in sea surface temperature (SST) of 12°C and maximum summer mean SSTs of 36°C, understanding coral reproductive biology in the Gulf may provide clues as to how corals may cope with global warming. In this study, we examined six locally common coral species on two shallow reef sites in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE), in 2008 and 2009 to investigate the patterns of reproduction, in particular the timing and synchrony of spawning. In total, 71% colonies in April 2008 and 63% colonies in April 2009 contained mature oocytes. However, the presence of mature gametes in May indicated that spawning was potentially split between April and May in all species. These results demonstrate that coral reproduction patterns within this region are highly seasonal and that multi-species spawning synchrony is highly probable. Acropora downingi, Cyphastrea microphthalma and Platygyra daedalea were all hermaphroditic broadcast spawners with a single annual gametogenic cycle. Furthermore, fecundity and mature oocyte sizes were comparable to those in other regions. We conclude that the reproductive biology of corals in the southern Persian Gulf is similar to other regions, indicating that these species have adapted to the extreme environmental conditions in the southern Persian Gulf.     

Latitudinal variation in coral communities in eastern Australia: a qualitative biophysical model of factors regulating coral reefs

The processes underlying the distributional limits of both corals and coral reefs can be elucidated by examining coral communities at high latitudes. Coral-dominated communities in eastern Australia cover a latitudinal range of >2,500 km, from the northern Great Barrier Reef (11°S) to South West Rocks (31.5°S). Patterns of coral species richness from 11 locations showed a clear separation between the Great Barrier Reef and subtropical sites, with a further abrupt change at around 31°S. Differences in community structure between the Great Barrier Reef and more southern sites were mainly attributable to higher cover of massive corals, branching Acropora, dead coral and coralline algae on the Great Barrier Reef, and higher cover of macroalgae and bare rock at more southern sites. The absence of some major reef-building taxa (i.e., staghorn Acropora and massive Porites) from most subtropical sites coincided with the loss of reef accretion capacity. Despite high cover of hard corals in communities at up to 31°S, only Lord Howe Island contained areas of reef accretion south of the Great Barrier Reef. Factors that have been hypothesized to account for latitudinal changes in coral community structure include water temperature, aragonite saturation, light availability, currents and larval dispersal, competition between corals and other biota including macroalgae, reduced coral growth rates, and failure of coral reproduction or recruitment. These factors do not operate independently of each other, and they interact in complex ways.     

Spatial resilience of the Great Barrier Reef under cumulative disturbance impacts

In the face of increasing cumulative effects from human and natural disturbances, sustaining coral reefs will require a deeper understanding of the drivers of coral resilience in space and time. Here we develop a high‐resolution, spatially explicit model of coral dynamics on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Our model accounts for biological, ecological and environmental processes, as well as spatial variation in water quality and the cumulative effects of coral diseases, bleaching, outbreaks of crown‐of‐thorns starfish (Acanthaster cf. solaris), and tropical cyclones. Our projections reconstruct coral cover trajectories between 1996 and 2017 over a total reef area of 14,780 km², predicting a mean annual coral loss of ?0.67%/year mostly due to the impact of cyclones, followed by starfish outbreaks and coral bleaching. Coral growth rate was the highest for outer shelf coral communities characterized by digitate and tabulate Acropora spp. and exposed to low seasonal variations in salinity and sea surface temperature, and the lowest for inner‐shelf communities exposed to reduced water quality. We show that coral resilience (defined as the net effect of resistance and recovery following disturbance) was negatively related to the frequency of river plume conditions, and to reef accessibility to a lesser extent. Surprisingly, reef resilience was substantially lower within no‐take marine protected areas, however this difference was mostly driven by the effect of water quality. Our model provides a new validated, spatially explicit platform for identifying the reefs that face the greatest risk of biodiversity loss, and those that have the highest chances to persist under increasing disturbance regimes.     

Tiger cowrie Cypraea tigris feeds on coral-competing sponge Rhabdastrella globostellata in an Acropora dominated reef of Gulf of Mannar,India

Gulf of Mannar (GoM) in the southeast coast of India is known for its coral reefs and reef-associated biodiversity. Corals in GoM were affected to a significant extent by climate change-driven coral bleaching in 2016, and are currently recovering. After the bleaching mortality that corals suffered, the competition for space between corals and sponges is obvious in GoM. Rhabdastrella globostellata is a common marine sponge found overgrowing live coral colonies of the patch reefs in GoM at Pattinamaruthoor in March 2019. Underwater assessment of the reef revealed that 60.06% live coral cover was dominated by Acropora corals (81.91%). Among the acroporans 8.23% of colonies were found overgrown by R. globostellata. During the night dives the tiger cowrie Cypraea tigris was observed to feed on R. globostellata. From this observation the present study infers that C. tigris helps the corals fight these sponges, and concludes that tiger cowries should be protected and promoted to tackle climate change implications.     

Recent disturbances augment community shifts in coral assemblages in Moorea, French Polynesia

Coral reefs are often subject to disturbances that can cause enduring changes in community structure and abundance of coral reef organisms. In Moorea, French Polynesia, frequent disturbances between 1979 and 2003 caused marked shifts in taxonomic composition of coral assemblages. This study explores recent changes in live cover and taxonomic structure of coral communities on the north coast of Moorea, French Polynesia, to assess whether coral assemblages are recovering (returning to a previous Acropora-dominated state) or continuing to move towards an alternative community structure. Coral cover declined by 29.7% between July 2003 and March 2009, mostly due to loss of Acropora and Montipora spp. Coral mortality varied among habitats, with highest levels of coral loss on the outer reef slope (7–20 m depth). In contrast, there was limited change in coral cover within the lagoon, and coral cover actually increased on the reef crest. Observed changes in coral cover and composition correspond closely with the known feeding preferences and observed spatial patterns of Acanthaster planci L., though observed coral loss also coincided with at least one episode of coral bleaching, as well as persistent populations of the corallivorous starfish Culcita novaeguineae Muller & Troschel. While climate change poses an important and significant threat to the future structure and dynamics coral reef communities, outbreaks of A. planci remain a significant cause of coral loss in Moorea. More importantly, these recent disturbances have followed long-term shifts in the structure of coral assemblages, and the relative abundance of both Pocillopora and Porites continue to increase due to disproportionate losses of Acropora and Montipora. Moreover, Pocillopora and Porites dominate assemblages of juvenile corals, suggesting that there is limited potential for a return to an Acropora-dominated state, last recorded in 1979.     

Disappearance of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Acropora</Emphasis> from the Marquesas (French Polynesia) during the last deglacial period

The major reef-building coral genus Acropora has never been recorded, living or fossil, from the Marquesas Islands in the central Pacific Ocean, which are characterized by limited modern reef formations. During the “Musorstom 9” cruise in 1997, investigations of marine platforms representing drowned reef systems revealed for the first time the presence of two Acropora species as fossils at seven Marquesas islands. The predominant species was Acropora valida, which was widespread in the archipelago and dated between 7.4 and 48.6 ka, providing evidence of an earlier Pacific distribution pattern broader than previously observed. It is proposed that disappearance of Acropora after 7.4 ka was linked to climatic events probably ENSO events controlling the distribution of corals and coral reefs in the eastern Pacific without excluding alternatively the effects of an increase in sea-level rise.     

How many damaged corals in Red Sea reef systems? A quantitative survey

Quantitative coral damage assessment by means of line transects was performed in several northern Red Sea coral reef sites in Israel (Eilat) and Egypt (Hurghada area). Reefs with high and low visitor frequency were compared. For both reef systems, breakage was found to be the most common damage category, being significantly higher on highly frequented reefs. Also, all observed damage (breakage, tissue loss, algal overgrowth) was most frequent within the first ten meters depth. A significant difference in the amount of corals overgrown by algae was found on the reefs near Hurghada as compared to all other reefs. Algal overgrowth was correlated with the occurrence of tissue loss and breakage, being considered as a consequence of pollution or the former damage types. In all cases of damage, Acropora was the most frequently affected genus, while Millepora dichotoma was the most affected species.     

White-band disease and the changing face of Caribbean coral reefs

In recent decades, the cover of fleshy macroalgae has increased and coral cover has decreased on most Caribbean reefs. Coral mortality precipitated this transition, and the accumulation of macroalgal biomass has been enhanced by decreased herbivory and increased nutrient input. Populations of Acropora palmata (elkhorn coral) and A. cervicornis (staghorn coral), two of the most important framework-building species, have died throughout the Caribbean, substantially reducing coral cover and providing substratum for algal growth. Hurricanes have devastated local populations of Acropora spp. over the past 20–25 years, but white-band disease, a putative bacterial syndrome specific to the genus Acropora, has been a more significant source of mortality over large areas of the Caribbean region.Paleontological data suggest that the regional Acropora kill is without precedent in the late Holocene. In Belize, A. cervicornis was the primary ecological and geological constituent of reefs in the central shelf lagoon until the mid-1980s. After constructing reef framework for thousands of years, A. cervicornis was virtually eliminated from the area over a ten-year period. Evidence from other parts of the Caribbean supports the hypothesis of continuous Holocene accumulation and recent mass mortality of Acropora spp. Prospects are poor for the rapid recovery of A. cervicornis, because its reproductive strategy emphasizes asexual fragmentation at the expense of dispersive sexual reproduction. A. palmata also relies on fragmentation, but this species has a higher rate of sexual recruitment than A. cervicornis. If the Acropora spp. do not recover, macroalgae will continue to dominate Caribbean reefs, accompanied by increased abundances of brooding corals, particularly Agaricia spp. and Porites spp. The outbreak of white-band disease has been coincident with increased human activity, and the possibility of a causal connection should be further investigated.     

Holocene reef evolution in a macrotidal setting: Buccaneer Archipelago,Kimberley Bioregion,Northwest Australia

This study uses information derived from cores to describe the Holocene accretion history of coral reefs in the macrotidal (up to 11 m tidal range) Buccaneer Archipelago of the southern Kimberley coast, Western Australia. The internal architecture of all cored reefs is broadly similar, constituting well-preserved detrital coral fragments, predominantly branching Acropora, in a poorly sorted sandy mud matrix. However, once the reefs reach sea level, they diverge into two types: low intertidal reefs that maintain their detrital character and develop relatively narrow, horizontal or gently sloping reef flats at approximately mean low water spring, and high intertidal reefs that develop broad coralline algal-dominated reef flats at elevations between mean low water neap and mean high water neap. The high intertidal reefs develop where strong, ebb-dominated, tidal asymmetry retains seawater over the low tide and allows continued accretion. Both reef types are ultimately constrained by sea level but differ in elevation by 3–4 m.     

Distribution and environmental control of coral assemblages in northern Safaga Bay (Red Sea, Egypt)

Summary Coral assemblages in northern Safaga Bay, Red Sea, Egypt, are qualitatively described. Nine distinct assemblages were found, which correspond to quantitatively defined community types previously described from the area off Hurghada, northern Red Sea. Their distribution within northern Safaga Bay was mapped. Strong gradient and/or steep relief assemblages were:Acropora assemblage on windward (exposed) reefs,Porites assemblage on leeward (sheltered) reefs,Millepora assemblage on current exposed reefs,Stylophora assemblage on reef flats. Low gradient and/or low relief assemblages were:Acropora dominated coral patches in areas of good circulation to a depth of 15 m,Stylophora/Acropora coral patch assemblages in shallow sheltered environments, faviid carpet in low relief areas between 10 and 25 m which with increasing turbidity turns into a depauperate faviid carpet,Porites carpet in low relief areas between 5 and 15 m with clearest water,Sarcophyton carpet in low relief areas with high suspension load, platy scleractinian assemblage in deeper water (>25 m) with low light intensity. The distribution of coral assemblages depends basically on 1) topography 2) hydrodynamics 3) light and 4) suspension load.     

Recurrent disturbances, recovery trajectories, and resilience of coral assemblages on a South Central Pacific reef

Coral reefs are increasingly threatened by various disturbances, and a critical challenge is to determine their ability for resistance and resilience. Coral assemblages in Moorea, French Polynesia, have been impacted by multiple disturbances (one cyclone and four bleaching events between 1991 and 2006). The 1991 disturbances caused large declines in coral cover (~51% to ~22%), and subsequent colonization by turf algae (~16% to ~49%), but this phase-shift from coral to algal dominance has not persisted. Instead, the composition of the coral community changed following the disturbances, notably favoring an increased cover of Porites, reduced cover of Montipora and Pocillopora, and a full return of Acropora; in this form, the reef returned to pre-disturbance coral cover within a decade. Thus, this coral assemblage is characterized by resilience in terms of coral cover, but plasticity in terms of community composition.     

Climate change and coral reefs: different effects in two high-latitude areas (Arabian Gulf,South Africa)

The findings in this paper show that Arabian Gulf (Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah) corals have already been measurably affected by climate change and further negative impacts are expected. Corals in South Africa have been only weakly impacted and are expected to persist in this likely refuge. The Arabian Gulf has recently experienced high-frequency recurrences of temperature-related bleaching (1996, 1998, 2002). First evidence may suggest that bleaching patterns in corals changed due to phenotypic adaptation after two strong bleaching events in rapid succession, because Acropora, which during the 1996 and 1998 events always bleached first and suffered heaviest mortality, bleached less than all other corals in 2002 at Sir Abu Nuair and recovered at Jebel Ali and Ras Hasyan. In South Africa, reef corals largely escaped the mass mortalities observed across the tropics in the late 1990s, although bleaching has also increased since 1999. These reefs are protected by local small-scale upwelling events in summer that, if they occur at the right time, keep temperatures below bleaching levels. Both areas, the Arabian Gulf and South Africa, have rich coral faunas but little to no recent reef-framework production. It is possible that many reefs worldwide may have similar dynamics in the future, if the changed climate (recurrence of temperature anomalies, changes in aragonite saturation state, etc.) suppresses sustained reef building at least temporarily. Global climate models predict the possibility of significant environmental changes, including increases in atmospheric temperature, sea-surface temperature (SST), and sea level. Monsoon and El Niño Southeastern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns might change, but climate models are not conclusive. Sea-level rise by up to 0.88 m is expected to be a problem in some low-lying areas, like the southern Arabian Gulf. Ocean aragonite saturation state is predicted to fall throughout the ocean but may not change reef dynamics in the two study areas.