Epidemiology of Japanese Encephalitis in the Philippines: A Systematic Review

BackgroundJapanese encephalitis virus (JEV) is an important cause of encephalitis in most of Asia, with high case fatality rates and often significant neurologic sequelae among survivors. The epidemiology of JE in the Philippines is not well defined. To support consideration of JE vaccine for introduction into the national schedule in the Philippines, we conducted a systematic literature review and summarized JE surveillance data from 2011 to 2014.MethodsWe conducted searches on Japanese encephalitis and the Philippines in four databases and one library. Data from acute encephalitis syndrome (AES) and JE surveillance and from the national reference laboratory from January 2011 to March 2014 were tabulated and mapped.ResultsWe identified 29 published reports and presentations on JE in the Philippines, including 5 serologic surveys, 18 reports of clinical cases, and 8 animal studies (including two with both clinical cases and animal data). The 18 clinical studies reported 257 cases of laboratory-confirmed JE from 1972 to 2013. JE virus (JEV) was the causative agent in 7% to 18% of cases of clinical meningitis and encephalitis combined, and 16% to 40% of clinical encephalitis cases. JE predominantly affected children under 15 years of age and 6% to 7% of cases resulted in death. Surveillance data from January 2011 to March 2014 identified 73 (15%) laboratory-confirmed JE cases out of 497 cases tested.SummaryThis comprehensive review demonstrates the endemicity and extensive geographic range of JE in the Philippines, and supports the use of JE vaccine in the country. Continued and improved surveillance with laboratory confirmation is needed to systematically quantify the burden of JE, to provide information that can guide prioritization of high risk areas in the country and determination of appropriate age and schedule of vaccine introduction, and to measure the impact of preventive measures including immunization against this important public health threat.     

The Functional,Social and Economic Impact of Acute Encephalitis Syndrome in Nepal – a Longitudinal Follow-Up Study

Background

Over 133,000 children present to hospitals with Acute Encephalitis Syndrome (AES) annually in Asia. Japanese encephalitis (JE) accounts for approximately one-quarter of cases; in most cases no pathogen is identified and management is supportive. Although JE is known to result in neurological impairment, few studies have examined the wider impact of JE and AES on patients and their families.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Children (aged 1 month–14 years) with AES were assessed 5–12 months after discharge from two Nepali hospitals. Assessment included clinical examination, the Liverpool Outcome Score (LOS) - a validated assessment of function following encephalitis, questionnaires about the child''s social participation since discharge, and out-of-pocket costs to the family. Children were classified as JE or ‘other AES’ based on anti-JE virus antibody titres during acute illness. Contact was made with the families of 76% (73/96) of AES children. Six children had died and one declined participation. 48% (32/66) reported functional impairment at follow-up, most frequently affecting behaviour, language or limb use. Impairment was more frequent in JE compared to ‘other AES’ cases (68% [13/19] versus 40% [19/47]; p = 0.06). 49% (26/53) had improvement in LOS between discharge and follow-up. The median out-of-pocket cost to families, including medical bills, medication and lost earnings was US$ 1151 (10 times their median monthly income) for children with severe/moderate impairment and $524 (4.6 times their income) for those with mild/no impairment (P = 0.007). Acute admission accounted for 74% of costs. Social participation was limited in 21% of children (n = 14).

Conclusions/Significance

Prolonged functional impairment was common following AES. Economic impact to families was substantial. Encouragingly, almost half the children improved after discharge and most reported sustained social participation. This study highlights a need for long-term medical support following AES. Rationalisation of initial expensive hospital treatments may be warranted, especially since only supportive treatment is available.     

The spatial heterogeneity between Japanese encephalitis incidence distribution and environmental variables in Nepal

Background

To identify potential environmental drivers of Japanese Encephalitis virus (JE) transmission in Nepal, we conducted an ecological study to determine the spatial association between 2005 Nepal JE incidence, and climate, agricultural, and land-cover variables at district level.

Methods

District-level data on JE cases were examined using Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) analysis to identify spatial clusters from 2004 to 2008 and 2005 data was used to fit a spatial lag regression model with climate, agriculture and land-cover variables.

Results

Prior to 2006, there was a single large cluster of JE cases located in the Far-West and Mid-West terai regions of Nepal. After 2005, the distribution of JE cases in Nepal shifted with clusters found in the central hill areas. JE incidence during the 2005 epidemic had a stronger association with May mean monthly temperature and April mean monthly total precipitation compared to mean annual temperature and precipitation. A parsimonious spatial lag regression model revealed, 1) a significant negative relationship between JE incidence and April precipitation, 2) a significant positive relationship between JE incidence and percentage of irrigated land 3) a non-significant negative relationship between JE incidence and percentage of grassland cover, and 4) a unimodal non-significant relationship between JE Incidence and pig-to-human ratio.

Conclusion

JE cases clustered in the terai prior to 2006 where it seemed to shift to the Kathmandu region in subsequent years. The spatial pattern of JE cases during the 2005 epidemic in Nepal was significantly associated with low precipitation and the percentage of irrigated land. Despite the availability of an effective vaccine, it is still important to understand environmental drivers of JEV transmission since the enzootic cycle of JEV transmission is not likely to be totally interrupted. Understanding the spatial dynamics of JE risk factors may be useful in providing important information to the Nepal immunization program.     

Use of Wild Bird Surveillance,Human Case Data and GIS Spatial Analysis for Predicting Spatial Distributions of West Nile Virus in Greece

West Nile Virus (WNV) is the causative agent of a vector-borne, zoonotic disease with a worldwide distribution. Recent expansion and introduction of WNV into new areas, including southern Europe, has been associated with severe disease in humans and equids, and has increased concerns regarding the need to prevent and control future WNV outbreaks. Since 2010, 524 confirmed human cases of the disease have been reported in Greece with greater than 10% mortality. Infected mosquitoes, wild birds, equids, and chickens have been detected and associated with human disease. The aim of our study was to establish a monitoring system with wild birds and reported human cases data using Geographical Information System (GIS). Potential distribution of WNV was modelled by combining wild bird serological surveillance data with environmental factors (e.g. elevation, slope, land use, vegetation density, temperature, precipitation indices, and population density). Local factors including areas of low altitude and proximity to water were important predictors of appearance of both human and wild bird cases (Odds Ratio = 1,001 95%CI = 0,723–1,386). Using GIS analysis, the identified risk factors were applied across Greece identifying the northern part of Greece (Macedonia, Thrace) western Greece and a number of Greek islands as being at highest risk of future outbreaks. The results of the analysis were evaluated and confirmed using the 161 reported human cases of the 2012 outbreak predicting correctly (Odds = 130/31 = 4,194 95%CI = 2,841–6,189) and more areas were identified for potential dispersion in the following years. Our approach verified that WNV risk can be modelled in a fast cost-effective way indicating high risk areas where prevention measures should be implemented in order to reduce the disease incidence.     

The Effect of Vaccination Coverage and Climate on Japanese Encephalitis in Sarawak,Malaysia

Background

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the leading cause of viral encephalitis across Asia with approximately 70,000 cases a year and 10,000 to 15,000 deaths. Because JE incidence varies widely over time, partly due to inter-annual climate variability effects on mosquito vector abundance, it becomes more complex to assess the effects of a vaccination programme since more or less climatically favourable years could also contribute to a change in incidence post-vaccination. Therefore, the objective of this study was to quantify vaccination effect on confirmed Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases in Sarawak, Malaysia after controlling for climate variability to better understand temporal dynamics of JE virus transmission and control.

Methodology/principal findings

Monthly data on serologically confirmed JE cases were acquired from Sibu Hospital in Sarawak from 1997 to 2006. JE vaccine coverage (non-vaccine years vs. vaccine years) and meteorological predictor variables, including temperature, rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) were tested for their association with JE cases using Poisson time series analysis and controlling for seasonality and long-term trend. Over the 10-years surveillance period, 133 confirmed JE cases were identified. There was an estimated 61% reduction in JE risk after the introduction of vaccination, when no account is taken of the effects of climate. This reduction is only approximately 45% when the effects of inter-annual variability in climate are controlled for in the model. The Poisson model indicated that rainfall (lag 1-month), minimum temperature (lag 6-months) and SOI (lag 6-months) were positively associated with JE cases.

Conclusions/significance

This study provides the first improved estimate of JE reduction through vaccination by taking account of climate inter-annual variability. Our analysis confirms that vaccination has substantially reduced JE risk in Sarawak but this benefit may be overestimated if climate effects are ignored.     

Association of Weather and Anthropogenic Factors for Transmission of Japanese Encephalitis in an Endemic Area of India

Weather and anthropogenic factors are important determinants for Japanese encephalitis (JE) transmission. During 2008–2010, an increasing trend of JE was observed in Dibrugarh district of Northeast India. The JE cases were found to be clustered between June to October in each year. Monthly minimum temperature and rainfall were significantly associated with JE transmission at 1 and 2 months lagged. However, the relationship was more prominent at a lag of 1 month than that of two. Regression analysis suggested that rainfall, minimum and maximum temperature, and relative humidity at 6:00 h are significant predictors (P < 0.05) of quarterly occurrence of JE cases. Additional anthropogenic risk factors including the conditions such as pig sty/cattle shed around and lower part of the houses and proximity of rice field to the dwelling houses (P < 0.05) were also found to be predictors for JE occurrence. Meteorological and anthropogenic risk factors can be used to forecast JE outbreaks in Assam which in turn can help the local health authorities to protect communities in JE prone areas.     

Effectiveness of the Viet Nam Produced,Mouse Brain-Derived,Inactivated Japanese Encephalitis Vaccine in Northern Viet Nam

Background

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a flaviviral disease of public health concern in many parts of Asia. JE often occurs in large epidemics, has a high case-fatality ratio and, among survivors, frequently causes persistent neurological sequelae and mental disabilities. In 1997, the Vietnamese government initiated immunization campaigns targeting all children aged 1–5 years. Three doses of a locally-produced, mouse brain-derived, inactivated JE vaccine (MBV) were given. This study aims at evaluating the effectiveness of Viet Nam''s MBV.

Methodology

A matched case-control study was conducted in Northern Viet Nam. Cases were identified through an ongoing hospital-based surveillance. Each case was matched to four healthy controls for age, gender, and neighborhood. The vaccination history was ascertained through JE immunization logbooks maintained at local health centers.

Principal Findings

Thirty cases and 120 controls were enrolled. The effectiveness of the JE vaccine was 92.9% [95% CI: 66.6–98.5]. Confounding effects of other risk variables were not observed.

Conclusions

Our results strongly suggest that the locally-produced JE-MBV given to 1–5 years old Vietnamese children was efficacious.     

庐山森林景观空间分布格局及多尺度特征

森林景观是区域整体景观的重要组成部分,研究其空间分布格局对于优化区域景观整体结构和发挥生态经济效益具有重要意义。基于庐山2010年植被斑块数据,将森林景观划分为常绿阔叶林、落叶阔叶林、松类、杉类和竹类等5类景观,从森林景观的不同发育阶段和林分类型角度出发,运用点格局分析法分析5类森林景观空间分布格局特征。最邻近距离分析表明:5类森林景观空间分布类型均服从集聚分布但聚集强弱有变化;不同发育阶段的森林景观空间分布类型以集聚分布为主,随机分布为辅,尤其幼龄林比较显著,中龄林和老龄林次之;5类森林景观的天然林均服从集聚分布,人工林大多趋于随机分布,只有松类和杉类呈显著集聚分布。Ripley's K函数揭示了不同发育阶段和林分类型的森林景观的多尺度集聚特征,即在小尺度范围内服从随机分布,随着空间距离的增大,以空间特征尺度为分界线,空间聚集强度先逐渐增强,随后不断减弱。总体来看,庐山森林景观的发育阶段主要处于幼年时期,原始植被遭到人类大肆破坏,幼龄林大片分布,属于典型的恢复性植被,未来要重点保护好天然林,减少人为干扰,实现森林景观适度集聚。研究庐山森林景观的空间分布和多尺度特征可以为生态环境保护和实现森林可持续经营提供理论指导。     

Spatiotemporal Patterns of Japanese Encephalitis in China, 2002–2010

Objective

The aim of the study is to examine the spatiotemporal pattern of Japanese Encephalitis (JE) in mainland China during 2002–2010. Specific objectives of the study were to quantify the temporal variation in incidence of JE cases, to determine if clustering of JE cases exists, to detect high risk spatiotemporal clusters of JE cases and to provide evidence-based preventive suggestions to relevant stakeholders.

Methods

Monthly JE cases at the county level in mainland China during 2002–2010 were obtained from the China Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention (CISDCP). For the purpose of the analysis, JE case counts for nine years were aggregated into four temporal periods (2002; 2003–2005; 2006; and 2007–2010). Local Indicators of Spatial Association and spatial scan statistics were performed to detect and evaluate local high risk space-time clusters.

Results

JE incidence showed a decreasing trend from 2002 to 2005 but peaked in 2006, then fluctuated over the study period. Spatial cluster analysis detected high value clusters, mainly located in Southwestern China. Similarly, we identified a primary spatiotemporal cluster of JE in Southwestern China between July and August, with the geographical range of JE transmission increasing over the past years.

Conclusion

JE in China is geographically clustered and its spatial extent dynamically changed during the last nine years in mainland China. This indicates that risk factors for JE infection are likely to be spatially heterogeneous. The results may assist national and local health authorities in the development/refinement of a better preventive strategy and increase the effectiveness of public health interventions against JE transmission.     

Low Muscle Strength Is Associated with Metabolic Risk Factors in Colombian Children: The ACFIES Study

Purpose

In youth, poor cardiorespiratory and muscular strength are associated with elevated metabolic risk factors. However, studies examining associations between strength and risk factors have been done exclusively in high income countries, and largely in Caucasian cohorts. The aim of this study was to assess these interactions in schoolchildren in Colombia, a middle income Latin American country.

Methods

We measured body mass index, body composition, handgrip strength (HG), cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and metabolic risk factors in 669 low-middle socioeconomic status Colombian schoolchildren (mean age 11.52±1.13, 47% female). Associations between HG, CRF and metabolic risk factors were evaluated.

Results

HG and CRF were inversely associated with blood pressure, HOMA index and a composite metabolic risk score (p<0.001 for all) and HG was also inversely associated with triglycerides and C-reactive protein (CRP) (both p<0.05). Associations between HG and risk factors were marginally weakened after adjusting for CRF, while associations between CRF and these factors were substantially weakened after adjusting for HG. Linear regression analyses showed inverse associations between HG and systolic BP (β = −0.101; p = 0.047), diastolic BP (β = −0.241; p> = 0.001), HOMA (β = −0.164; p = 0.005), triglycerides (β = −0.583; p = 0.026) and CRP (β = −0.183; p = 0.037) but not glucose (p = 0.698) or HDL cholesterol (p = 0.132). The odds ratios for having clustered risk in the weakest quartile compared with the strongest quartile were 3.0 (95% confidence interval: 1.81–4.95).

Conclusions

In Colombian schoolchildren both poorer handgrip strength/kg body mass and cardiorespiratory fitness were associated with a worse metabolic risk profile. Associations were stronger and more consistent between handgrip and risk factors than between cardiorespiratory fitness and these risk factors. Our findings indicate the addition of handgrip dynamometry to non-invasive youth health surveillance programs would improve the accuracy of the assessment of cardio-metabolic health.     

泾河流域分县景观格局特征及相关性

景观生态主要是研究生态系统的空间格局。因而很有必要对空间格局进行数量化的分析,在此基础上进行科学管理。应用斑块数、斑块面积、斑块密度、优势度、聚集度和分维数计算了泾河流域31个县景观格局的特征,首次以景观特征值为基础,将研究区域各县景观进行分类,并对不同类型的景观特征及相关性进行分析。结果表明,近年来流域破碎化程度有所增加,各景观指数值在研究区域之间变异很大。优势度和聚集度比较高的区域土地利用较单一,常常是以农用地为主导如咸阳、泾阳和乾县,或以农地和草地共同主导如环县。而优势度和聚集度较低的区域,土地利用较多样化,农地、林地和草地面积比例相近,如泾源、平凉、陇县、宁县和旬邑,这些县位于黄土丘陵沟壑区和黄土高塬沟壑区。高优势度、高聚集度和低分维数的区域为陕西省咸阳市,为泾河流域冲积平原区,土地利用以大面积的农用地为主导。景观指数的相关分析表明,3种主要的土地利用面积比例之间存在极显著负相关,林地面积和优势度、聚集度有极显著负相关,而草地面积和分维数存在极显著正相关,分维数高的县位于泾河流域中游的黄土高原沟壑区,分维数低的县位于下游河谷阶地和关中平原和黄土高原交界处。这种相关性表明了自然地貌及人类活动对景观的影响和干扰作用。     

Regional Variation in Pig Farmer Awareness and Actions Regarding Japanese Encephalitis in Nepal: Implications for Public Health Education

Japanese encephalitis (JE) is a mosquito-borne zoonotic disease that has pigs as the major amplifying hosts. It is the most important cause of viral encephalitis in people in Nepal and is spreading in its geographic distribution in that country. Pig farming is increasing in Nepal due to reducing cultural biases against pigs and government programs to support pig farming for poverty alleviation. Major strategies for JE prevention and control include education, vector control, and immunization of people and pigs. This study used a survey of 400 pig farmers in 4 areas of Nepal with different JE and pig farming histories to explore regional variations in farmer awareness and actions towards JE, the association of awareness and actions with farm and farmer variables, and the implications of these associations for public health education. Exposure to JE risk factors was common across pig farms and pig farming districts but there were significant district level differences in knowledge and practices related to on-farm JE risk reduction. Social factors such as literacy, gender, and cultural practices were associated with farmer attitudes, knowledge and practices for JE control. JE vaccine uptake was almost non-existent and mosquito control steps were inconsistently applied across all 4 districts. Income was not a determining factor of the differences, but all farmers were very poor. The low uptake of vaccine and lack of infrastructure or financial capacity to house pigs indoors or away from people suggest that farmer personal protection should be a priority target for education in Nepal. This study re-enforces the need to attack root causes of people’s personal disease prevention behaviours and take into account local variation in needs and capacities when designing health or agriculture education programs.     

Sero-Molecular Epidemiology of Japanese Encephalitis in Zhejiang,an Eastern Province of China

BackgroundSporadic Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases still have been reported in Zhejiang Province in recent years, and concerns about vaccine cross-protection and population-level immunity have been raised off and on within the public health sphere. Genotype I (GI) has replaced GIII as the dominant genotype in Asian countries during the past few decades, which caused considerable concerns about the potential change of epidemiology characteristics and the vaccine effectiveness. The aim of this study was to investigate the prevalence of JE neutralizing antibody and its waning antibody trend after live attenuated JE vaccine immunization. Additionally, this study analyzed the molecular characteristics of the E gene of Zhejiang Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) strains, and established genetic relationships with other JEV strains.Conclusion/SignificancesJE neutralizing antibody positive rates increase in age ≥10 years old population, likely reflecting natural infection or natural boosting of immunity through exposure to wild virus. JE seropositivity rates were quite low in <35 years old age groups in Zhejiang Province. Waning of neutralizing antibody after live attenuated vaccine immunization was observed, but the clinical significance should be further investigated. Both the peripheral antibody response and genetic characterization indicate that current live attenuated JE vaccine conferred equal neutralizing potency against GI or GIII of wild strains. GI has replaced GIII as the dominant genotype in Zhejiang in the past few decades. Although the chance of exposure to wild JE virus has reduced, the virus still circulates in nature; therefore, it is necessary to implement immunization program for children continually and to conduct surveillance activity periodically.     

A Prospective Study of Gynecological Cancer Risk in Relation to Adiposity Factors: Cumulative Incidence and Association with Plasma Adipokine Levels

Background

Associations of obesity and obesity-related metabolic factors (adiposity factors) with uterine corpus cancer (UCC) and ovarian cancer (OVC) risk have been described. Still, a cause-effect relationship and the underlying mediators remain unclear, particularly for low-incidence populations. We aimed to prospectively determine whether adiposity factors could predict the development of UCC and OVC in Taiwanese women. To explore the biological mediators linking adiposity factors to cancer risk, we examined the association of two adipokines, leptin and adiponectin, with the gynecological cancers.

Methods

Totally, 11,258 women, aged 30–65, were recruited into the Community-Based Cancer Screening Program (CBCSP) study during 1991–1993, and were followed for UCC and OVC cases until December 31, 2011. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs). Adiposity factors and risk covariates were assessed at recruitment. Newly-developed cancer cases were determined from data in the government’s National Cancer Registry and Death Certification System. For adipokienes study, a nested case-control study was conducted within the cohort. Baseline plasma samples of 40 incident gynecological cancer cases and 240 age-menopause-matched controls were assayed for adipokines levels.

Findings

There were 38 and 30 incident cases of UCC and OVC, respectively, diagnosed during a median 19.9 years of follow-up. Multivariate analysis showed that alcohol intake (HR = 16.00, 95% = 4.83–53.00), high triglyceride levels (HR = 2.58, 95% = 1.28–5.17), and years of endogenous estrogen exposure per 5-year increment (HR = 1.91, 95% = 1.08–3.38) were associated with increased UCC risk. High body mass index (BMI≥27 kg/m², HR = 2.90, 95% = 1.30–6.46) was associated with increased OVC risk. Analysis further showed an independent effect of adipokines on UCC and OVC risk after adjustment of the risk covariates.

Conclusion

We provided evidence that alcohol intake, high triglyceride levels and long endogenous estrogen exposure increase UCC risk, whereas obesity positively predicts OVC risk. Circulating adipokines may mediate the link of adiposity factors to gynecological cancer risk.     

Spatio-Temporal Factors Associated with Meningococcal Meningitis Annual Incidence at the Health Centre Level in Niger, 2004–2010

Background

Epidemics of meningococcal meningitis (MM) recurrently strike the African Meningitis Belt. This study aimed at investigating factors, still poorly understood, that influence annual incidence of MM serogroup A, the main etiologic agent over 2004–2010, at a fine spatial scale in Niger.

Methodology/Principal Findings

To take into account data dependencies over space and time and control for unobserved confounding factors, we developed an explanatory Bayesian hierarchical model over 2004–2010 at the health centre catchment area (HCCA) level. The multivariate model revealed that both climatic and non-climatic factors were important for explaining spatio-temporal variations in incidence: mean relative humidity during November–June over the study region (posterior mean Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) = 0.656, 95% Credible Interval (CI) 0.405–0.949) and occurrence of early rains in March in a HCCA (IRR = 0.353, 95% CI 0.239–0.502) were protective factors; a higher risk was associated with the percentage of neighbouring HCCAs having at least one MM A case during the same year (IRR = 2.365, 95% CI 2.078–2.695), the presence of a road crossing the HCCA (IRR = 1.743, 95% CI 1.173–2.474) and the occurrence of cases before 31 December in a HCCA (IRR = 6.801, 95% CI 4.004–10.910). At the study region level, higher annual incidence correlated with greater geographic spread and, to a lesser extent, with higher intensity of localized outbreaks.

Conclusions

Based on these findings, we hypothesize that spatio-temporal variability of MM A incidence between years and HCCAs result from variations in the intensity or duration of the dry season climatic effects on disease risk, and is further impacted by factors of spatial contacts, representing facilitated pathogen transmission. Additional unexplained factors may contribute to the observed incidence patterns and should be further investigated.     

How does forest landscape structure explain tree species richness in a Mediterranean context?

Although the strong relationship between vegetation and climatic factors is widely accepted, other landscape composition and configuration characteristics could be significantly related with vegetation diversity patterns at different scales. Variation partitioning was conducted in order to analyse to what degree forest landscape structure, compared to other spatial and environmental factors, explained forest tree species richness in 278 UTM 10 × 10 km cells in the Mediterranean region of Catalonia (NE Spain). Tree species richness variation was decomposed through linear regression into three groups of explanatory variables: forest landscape (composition and configuration), environmental (topography and climate) and spatial variables. Additionally, the forest landscape characteristics which significantly contributed to explain richness variation were identified through a multiple regression model. About 60% of tree species richness variation was explained by the whole set of variables, while their joint effects explained nearly 28%. Forest landscape variables were those with a greater pure explanatory power for tree species richness (about 15% of total variation), much larger than the pure effect of environmental or spatial variables (about 2% each). Forest canopy cover, forest area and land cover diversity were the most significant composition variables in the regression model. Landscape configuration metrics had a minor effect on forest tree species richness, with the exception of some shape complexity indices, as indicators of land use intensity and edge effects. Our results highlight the importance of considering the forest landscape structure in order to understand the distribution of vegetation diversity in strongly human-modified regions like the Mediterranean.     

Proximity is not a proxy for parentage in an animal-dispersed Neotropical canopy palm

We used parentage analysis to estimate seedling recruitment distances and genetic composition of seedling patches centred around reproductive trees of the animal-dispersed Neotropical canopy palm Iriartea deltoidea in two 0.5 ha plots within second-growth forest and one 0.5 ha plot in adjacent old-growth forest at La Selva Biological Field Station in north-eastern Costa Rica. Seedlings were significantly spatially aggregated in all plots, but this pattern was not due to dispersal limitation. More than 70 per cent of seedlings were dispersed at least 50 m from parent trees. Few seedlings were offspring of the closest reproductive trees. Seedling patches observed beneath reproductive trees originate from dozens of parental trees. Observed patterns of seedling distribution and spatial genetic structure are largely determined by the behaviour of vertebrate seed dispersers rather than by spatial proximity to parental trees.     

Utilization of Surveillance after Polypectomy in the Medicare Population – A Cohort Study

Background

Surveillance in patients with previous polypectomy was underused in the Medicare population in 1994. This study investigates whether expansion of Medicare reimbursement for colonoscopy screening in high-risk individuals has reduced the inappropriate use of surveillance.

Methods

We used Kaplan-Meier analysis to estimate time to surveillance and polyp recurrence rates for Medicare beneficiaries with a colonoscopy with polypectomy between 1998 and 2003 who were followed through 2008 for receipt of surveillance colonoscopy. Generalized Estimating Equations were used to estimate risk factors for: 1) failing to undergo surveillance and 2) polyp recurrence among these individuals. Analyses were stratified into three 2-year cohorts based on baseline colonoscopy date.

Results

Medicare beneficiaries undergoing a colonoscopy with polypectomy in the 1998–1999 (n = 4,136), 2000–2001 (n = 3,538) and 2002–2003 (n = 4,655) cohorts had respective probabilities of 30%, 26% and 20% (p<0.001) of subsequent surveillance events within 3 years. At the same time, 58%, 52% and 45% (p<0.001) of beneficiaries received a surveillance event within 5 years. Polyp recurrence rates after 5 years were 36%, 30% and 26% (p<0.001) respectively. Older age (≥ 70 years), female gender, later cohort (2000–2001 & 2002–2003), and severe comorbidity were the most important risk factors for failure to undergo a surveillance event. Male gender and early cohort (1998–1999) were the most important risk factors for polyp recurrence.

Conclusions

Expansion of Medicare reimbursement for colonoscopy screening in high-risk individuals has not reduced underutilization of surveillance in the Medicare population. It is important to take action now to improve this situation, because polyp recurrence is substantial in this population.