The Effectiveness of the Cardiovascular Disease Prevention Programme ‘KardioPro’ Initiated by a German Sickness Fund: A Time-to-Event Analysis of Routine Data

Background

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the developed world. To reduce this burden of disease, a German sickness fund (‘Siemens-Betriebskrankenkasse’, SBK) initiated the prevention programme ‘KardioPro’ including primary (risk factor reduction) and secondary (screening) prevention and guideline-based treatment. The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of ‘KardioPro’ as it is implemented in the real world.

Methods

The study is based on sickness fund routine data. The control group was selected from non-participants via propensity score matching. Study analysis was based on time-to-event analysis via Cox proportional hazards regression with the endpoint ‘all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction (MI) and ischemic stroke (1)’, ‘all-cause mortality (2)’ and ‘non-fatal acute MI and ischemic stroke (3)’.

Results

A total of 26,202 insurants were included, 13,101 participants and 13,101 control subjects. ‘KardioPro’ enrolment was associated with risk reductions of 23.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) 13.0–32.7%) (1), 41.7% (95% CI 30.2–51.2%) (2) and 3.5% (hazard ratio 0.965, 95% CI 0.811–1.148) (3). This corresponds to an absolute risk reduction of 0.29% (1), 0.31% (2) and 0.03% (3) per year.

Conclusion

The prevention programme initiated by a German statutory sickness fund appears to be effective with regard to all-cause mortality. The non-significant reduction in non-fatal events might result from a shift from fatal to non-fatal events.     

Off-Hour Effect on 3-Month Functional Outcome after Acute Ischemic Stroke: A Prospective Multicenter Registry

Background and Purpose

The time of hospital arrival may have an effect on prognosis of various vascular diseases. We examined whether off-hour admission would affect the 3-month functional outcome in acute ischemic stroke patients admitted to tertiary hospitals.

Methods

We analyzed the ‘off-hour effect’ in consecutive patients with acute ischemic stroke using multi-center prospective stroke registry. Work-hour admission was defined as when the patient arrived at the emergency department between 8 AM and 6 PM from Monday to Friday and between 8 AM and 1 PM on Saturday. Off-hour admission was defined as the rest of the work-hours and statutory holidays. Multivariable logistic regression was used to analyze the association between off-hour admission and 3-month unfavorable functional outcome defined as modified Rankin Scale (mRS) 3–6. Multivariable model included age, sex, risk factors, prehospital delay time, intravenous thrombolysis, stroke subtypes and severity as covariates.

Results

A total of 7075 patients with acute ischemic stroke were included in this analysis: mean age, 67.5 (±13.0) years; male, 58.6%. In multivariable analysis, off-hour admission was not associated with unfavorable functional outcome (OR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.72–1.09) and mortality (OR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.77–1.54) at 3 months. Moreover, off-hour admission did not affect a statistically significant shift of 3-month mRS distributions (OR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.78–1.05).

Conclusions

‘Off-hour’ admission is not associated with an unfavorable 3-month functional outcome in acute ischemic stroke patients admitted to tertiary hospitals in Korea. This finding indicates that the off-hour effects could be overcome with well-organized stroke management strategies.     

Circulating Adiponectin and Risk of Endometrial Cancer

Background

Adiponectin is an insulin-sensitizing hormone produced by adipocytes. It has been suggested to be involved in endometrial tumorigenesis. Published data have shown inconsistent results for the association between circulating adiponectin levels and endometrial cancer. In this study, we conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the predictive value of circulating adiponectin levels on the development of endometrial cancer.

Methods

PubMed, Embase, ISI web of knowledge, and Cochrane databases were searched for all eligible studies, and the summary relative risk (SRR) was calculated. Additionally, we performed dose-response analysis with eight eligible studies.

Results

A total of 1,955 cases and 3,458 controls from 12 studies were included. The SRR for the ‘highest’ vs ‘lowest’ adiponectin levels indicated high adiponectin level reduced the risk of endometrial cancer [SRR = 0.40, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.33–0.66]. Results from the subgroup analyses were consistent with the overall analysis. The SRR for each 1 µg/ml increase of adiponectin indicated a 3% reduction in endometrial cancer risk (95% CI: 2%–4%), and a 14% reduction for each increase of 5 µg/ml (95% CI: 9%–19%). No evidence of publication bias was found.

Conclusions

This meta-analysis demonstrates that low level of circulating adiponectin is a risk factor for endometrial cancer.     

Benefits of Bifidobacterium breve M-16V Supplementation in Preterm Neonates - A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials report that probiotics reduce the risk of necrotising enterocolitis (NEC) in preterm neonates.

Aim

To determine whether routine probiotic supplementation (RPS) to preterm neonates would reduce the incidence of NEC.

Methods

The incidence of NEC ≥ Stage II and all-cause mortality was compared for an equal period of 24 months ‘before’ (Epoch 1) and ‘after’ (Epoch 2) RPS with Bifidobacterium breve M-16V in neonates <34 weeks. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to adjust for relevant confounders.

Results

A total of 1755 neonates (Epoch I vs. II: 835 vs. 920) with comparable gestation and birth weights were admitted. There was a significant reduction in NEC ≥ Stage II: 3% vs. 1%, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.43 (95%CI: 0.21–0.87); ‘NEC ≥ Stage II or all-cause mortality’: 9% vs. 5%, aOR = 0.53 (95%CI: 0.32–0.88); but not all-cause mortality alone: 7% vs. 4%, aOR = 0.58 (95% CI: 0.31–1.06) in Epoch II. The benefits in neonates <28 weeks did not reach statistical significance: NEC ≥ Stage II: 6% vs. 3%, aOR 0.51 (95%CI: 0.20–1.27), ‘NEC ≥ Stage II or all-cause mortality’, 21% vs. 14%, aOR = 0.59 (95%CI: 0.29–1.18); all-cause mortality: 17% vs. 11%, aOR = 0.63 (95%CI: 0.28–1.41). There was no probiotic sepsis.

Conclusion

RPS with Bifidobacterium breve M-16V was associated with decreased NEC≥ Stage II and ‘NEC≥ Stage II or all-cause mortality’ in neonates <34 weeks. Large sample size is required to assess the potential benefits of RPS in neonates <28 weeks.     

Predictors for Stroke and Death in Non-Anticoagulated Asian Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: The Fushimi AF Registry

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risk of stroke and death. Data on the predictors for stroke and death in ‘real-world’ AF patients are limited, especially from large prospective Asian cohorts.

Methods

The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey designed to enroll all AF patients who visited the participating medical institutions in Fushimi-ku, Kyoto, Japan. Follow-up data were available for 3,304 patients (median follow-up period 741 days). We explored the predictors for ‘death, stroke, and systemic embolism (SE)’ during follow-up in 1,541 patients not receiving oral anticoagulants (OAC) at baseline.

Results

The mean age was 73.1 ± 12.5 years, and 673 (44%) patients were female. The mean CHADS₂ and CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores were 1.76 and 3.08, respectively. Cumulative events were as follows: stroke/SE in 61 (4%) and death in 230 (15%), respectively. On multivariate analysis, advanced age (hazard ratio (HR): 1.68, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.24–2.29), underweight (body mass index <18.5 kg/m²) (HR: 1.71, 95% CI: 1.25–2.32), previous stroke/SE/transient ischemic attack (HR: 1.70, 95% CI: 1.25–2.30), heart failure (HR: 1.59, 95% CI: 1.17–2.15), chronic kidney disease (HR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.16–2.02), and anemia (HR: 2.41, 95% CI: 1.78–3.28) were independent predictors for death/stroke/SE. Cumulative numbers of these 6 risk predictors could stratify the incidence of death/stroke/SE in patients without OAC, as well as those with OAC in our registry.

Conclusions

Advanced age, underweight, previous stroke/SE/transient ischemic attack, heart failure, chronic kidney disease, and anemia were independently associated with the risk of death/stroke/SE in non-anticoagulated Japanese AF patients.     

Ischemic Stroke Hospital Admission Associated with Ambient Temperature in Jinan,China

Background

This study estimated the effects of ambient temperature and relative humidity on hospital admissions for ischemic stroke during 1990–2009 in Jinan, China.

Methods

To account for possible delayed effects and harvesting effect, we examined the impact of meteorological factors up to 30 days before each admission using a distributed lag non-linear model; we controlled for season, long-term trend, day of week and public holidays in the analysis. Stratified analyses were also done for summer and winter.

Results

A total of 1,908 ischemic stroke hospital admissions were observed between 1990 and 2009. We found a strong non-linear acute effect of daily temperatures on ischemic stroke hospital admission. With the mean temperature 15°C as the reference, the relative risk (RR) was 1.43 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10–1.85) for 0°C daily temperature on the same day, and 0.43 (95% CI: 0.31–0.59) for 30°C daily temperature on the same day, respectively. The effect of ambient temperature was similar in summer and winter. No significant association was observed between relative humidity and ischemic stroke hospitalization.

Conclusions

Low temperature might be a risk factor for ischemic stroke, and high temperature might be protective factor of ischemic stroke occurrence in Jinan, China.     

Genetic Polymorphism in PDE4D Gene and Risk of Ischemic Stroke in Chinese Population: A Meta-Analysis

Background

Stroke is the second most common cause of death and major cause of disability worldwide. The SNP 83 in PDE4D gene has been suggested as a risk factor in ischemic stroke, but direct evidence from genetic association studies remains inconclusive even in Chinese population.

Methods

Meta-analysis of case-control studies on the relationship between SNP 83 in PDE4D gene and susceptibility to ischemic stroke in Chinese population published domestically and abroad from January 2003 to September 2012.

Results

9 case-control studies were selected. Meta-analysis results showed that the significant association between SNP 83 and ischemic stroke was found under the dominant model (OR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.20–1.49) and recessive model (OR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.19–1.76) in Chinese population. In subgroup meta-analysis, SNP 83 and atherothrombotic stroke, rather than lacunar stroke, showed the significant association under the dominant model (OR = 1.69, 95% CI: 1.41–2.01) and recessive model (OR = 1.47, 95% CI: 1.04–2.06).

Conclusions

The results suggest that SNP 83 in PDE4D gene is significantly associated with susceptibility to ischemic stroke in Chinese population.     

Glycemic Control and Radiographic Manifestations of Tuberculosis in Diabetic Patients

Background

Radiographic manifestations of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) have previously been reported, with inconsistent results. We conducted a study to investigate whether glycemic control has an impact on radiographic manifestations of pulmonary TB.

Methods

Consecutive patients with culture-positive pulmonary TB who had DM in three tertiary care hospitals from 2005–2010 were selected for review and compared with a similar number without DM. Glycemic control was assessed by glycated haemoglobin A1C (HbA1C). A pre-treatment chest radiograph was read independently by two qualified pulmonologists blinded to patients’ diabetic status. Films with any discordant reading were read by a third reader.

Results

1209 culture positive pulmonary TB patients (581 with DM and 628 without DM) were enrolled. Compared with those without DM, TB patients with DM were significantly more likely to have opacity over lower lung fields, extensive parenchymal lesions, any cavity, multiple cavities and large cavities (>3 cm). The relative risk of lower lung field opacities was 0.80 (95% CI 0.46–1.42) for those with DM with A1C<7%, 2.32 (95% CI 1.36 - 3.98) for A1C 7%–9%, and 1.62 (95% CI 1.12–2.36) for A1C>9%; and that of any cavity over no cavity was 0.87 (95% CI 0.46–1.62) for patients with DM with A1C<7%, 1.84 (95% CI 1.20–2.84) for A1C 7%–9%, and 3.71 (95% CI 2.64–5.22) for A1C>9%, relative to patients without DM.

Conclusions

Glycemic control significantly influenced radiographic manifestations of pulmonary TB in patients with DM.     

Resting Heart Rate and Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases and All-Cause Death: The Kailuan Study

Background

Resting heart rate (RHR) predicts both cardiovascular and noncardiovascular death in different populations. However, the results of the association between RHR and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are inconsistent, especially for each subtype of CVDs.

Objective

The aim of this study was to prospectively explore the relationship between RHR and CVDs including myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke and all-cause death in a general population.

Methods

The Kailuan study is a prospective longitudinal cohort study on cardiovascular risk factors and cardiovascular or cerebrovascular events. Hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using Cox regression modeling.

Results

We analyzed 92,562 participants (18–98 years old) in the Kailuan Study. CVDs were developed in 1,903 people during follow-ups. In multivariate analysis with adjustment for major traditional cardiovascular risk factors, HRs of the highest quintile group compared with the lowest quintile group of RHR for all-cause CVDs, MI, any stroke, ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and all-cause death were 1.03 (95% CI, 0.98–1.07), 1.10 (95% CI, 1.01–1.20), 1.01 (95% CI, 0.97–1.06), 1.02 (95% CI, 0.96–1.07), 1.01 (95% CI, 0.92–1.11) and 1.18, (95% CI, 1.13–1.23), respectively.

Conclusions

The elevated RHR was independently associated with the increased risk for MI and all-cause death, but not for all-cause CVDs, any stroke, ischemic stroke, nor hemorrhagic stroke. This indicates that the elevated RHR might be a risk marker for MI and all-cause death in general populations.     

A South African Public-Private Partnership HIV Treatment Model: Viability and Success Factors

Introduction

The increasing number of people requiring HIV treatment in South Africa calls for efficient use of its human resources for health in order to ensure optimum treatment coverage and outcomes. This paper describes an innovative public-private partnership model which uses private sector doctors to treat public sector patients and ascertains the model’s ability to maintain treatment outcomes over time.

Methods

The study used a retrospective design based on the electronic records of patients who were down-referred from government hospitals to selected private general medical practitioners (GPs) between November 2005 and October 2012. In total, 2535 unique patient records from 40 GPs were reviewed. The survival functions for mortality and attrition were calculated. Cumulative incidence of mortality for different time cohorts (defined by year of treatment initiation) was also established.

Results

The median number of patients per GP was 143 (IQR: 66–246). At the time of down-referral to private GPs, 13.8% of the patients had CD4 count <200 cell/mm³, this proportion reduced to 6.6% at 12 months and 4.1% at 48 months. Similarly, 88.4% of the patients had suppressed viral load (defined as HIV-1 RNA <400 copies/ml) at 48 months. The patients’ probability of survival at 12 and 48 months was 99.0% (95% CI: 98.4%–99.3%) and 89.0% (95% CI: 87.1%–90.0%) respectively. Patient retention at 48 months remained high at 94.3% (95% CI: 93.0%–95.7%).

Conclusions

The study findings demonstrate the ability of the GPs to effectively maintain patient treatment outcomes and potentially contribute to HIV treatment scale-up with the relevant support mechanism. The model demonstrates how an assisted private sector based programme can be effectively and efficiently used to either target specific health concerns, key populations or serve as a stop-gap measure to meet urgent health needs.     

Early Life Exposure to Famine and Colorectal Cancer Risk: A Role for Epigenetic Mechanisms

Background

Exposure to energy restriction during childhood and adolescence is associated with a lower risk of developing colorectal cancer (CRC). Epigenetic dysregulation during this critical period of growth and development may be a mechanism to explain such observations. Within the Netherlands Cohort Study on diet and cancer, we investigated the association between early life energy restriction and risk of subsequent CRC characterized by the (promoter) CpG island methylation phenotype (CIMP).

Methodology/Principal Findings

Information on diet and risk factors was collected by baseline questionnaire (n = 120,856). Three indicators of exposure were assessed: place of residence during the Hunger Winter (1944–45) and World War II years (1940–44), and father''s employment status during the Economic Depression (1932–40). Methylation specific PCR (MSP) on DNA from paraffin embedded tumor tissue was performed to determine CIMP status according to the Weisenberger markers. After 7.3 years of follow-up, 603 cases and 4631 sub-cohort members were available for analysis. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals for CIMP+ (27.7%) and CIMP- (72.3%) tumors according to the three time periods of energy restriction, adjusted for age and gender. Individuals exposed to severe famine during the Hunger Winter had a decreased risk of developing a tumor characterized by CIMP compared to those not exposed (HR 0.65, 95%CI: 0.45–0.92). Further categorizing individuals by an index of ‘0–1’ ‘2–3’ or ‘4–7’ genes methylated in the promoter region suggested that exposure to the Hunger Winter was associated with the degree of promoter hypermethylation (‘0–1 genes methylated’ HR = 1.01, 95%CI:0.74–1.37; ‘2–3 genes methylated’ HR = 0.83, 95% CI:0.61–1.15; ‘4–7 genes methylated’ HR = 0.72, 95% CI:0.49–1.04). No associations were observed with respect to the Economic Depression and WWII years.

Conclusions

This is the first study indicating that exposure to a severe, transient environmental condition during adolescence and young adulthood may result in persistent epigenetic changes that later influence CRC development.     

Association between Obesity and Cardiometabolic Health Risk in Asian-Canadian Sub-Groups

Objectives

To quantify and compare the association between the World Health Organizations’ Asian-specific trigger points for public health action [‘increased risk’: body mass index (BMI) ≥23 kg/m², and; ‘high risk’: BMI ≥27.5 kg/m²] with self-reported cardiovascular-related conditions in Asian-Canadian sub-groups.

Methods

Six cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey (2001–2009) were pooled to examine BMI and health in Asian sub-groups (South Asians, Chinese, Filipino, Southeast Asians, Arabs, West Asians, Japanese and Korean; N = 18 794 participants, ages 18–64 y). Multivariable logistic regression, adjusting for demographic, lifestyle characteristics and acculturation measures, was used to estimate the odds of cardiovascular-related health (high blood pressure, heart disease, diabetes, ‘at least one cardiometabolic condition’) outcomes across all eight Asian sub-groups.

Results

Compared to South Asians (OR = 1.00), Filipinos had higher odds of having ‘at least one cardiometabolic condition’ (OR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.04–1.62), whereas Chinese (0.63, 0.474–0.9) and Arab-Canadians had lower odds (0.38, 0.28–0.51). In ethnic-specific analyses (with ‘acceptable’ risk weight as the referent), ‘increased’ and ‘high’ risk weight categories were the most highly associated with ‘at least one cardiometabolic condition’ in Chinese (‘increased’: 3.6, 2.34–5.63; ‘high’: 8.9, 3.6–22.01). Compared to normal weight South Asians, being in the ‘high’ risk weight category in all but the Southeast Asian, Arab, and Japanese ethnic groups was associated with approximately 3-times the likelihood of having ‘at least one cardiometabolic condition’.

Conclusion

Differences in the association between obesity and cardiometabolic health risks were seen among Asian sub-groups in Canada. The use of WHO’s lowered Asian-specific BMI cut-offs identified obesity-related risks in South Asian, Filipino and Chinese sub-groups that would have been masked by traditional BMI categories. These findings have implications for public health messaging, especially for ethnic groups at higher odds of obesity-related health risks.     

Association of Left Ventricular Mass with All-Cause Mortality,Myocardial Infarction and Stroke

Background

Our aim was to assess the association of left ventricular mass with mortality and nonfatal cardiovascular events.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Left ventricular mass was measured by echocardiography in 40138 adult patients (mean age 61.1±16.4 years, 52.5% male). The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Secondary endpoints included nonfatal myocardial infarction and nonfatal stroke. During a mean follow-up period of 5.6±3.9 years, 9181 patients died, 901 patients had a nonfatal myocardial infarction, and 2139 patients had a nonfatal stroke. Cumulative 10-year mortality was 26.8%, 31.9%, 37.4% and 46.4% in patients with normal, mildly, moderately and severely increased left ventricular mass, respectively (p<0.001). Ten-year rates of nonfatal myocardial infarction and stroke ranged from 3.2% and 6.7% in patients with normal left ventricular mass to 5.3% and 12.7% in those with severe increase in left ventricular mass, respectively. After multivariate adjustment, left ventricular mass remained an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] per 100 g increase 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14–1–27, p<0.001 in women, and HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.04–1–13, p<0.001 in men), myocardial infarction (HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.31–1.94, p<0.001 in women and HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.02–1.29, p = 0.019 in men) and stroke (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.13–1.40, p<0.001 in women and HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.09–1.30, p<0.001 in men).

Conclusions/Significance

Left ventricular mass has a graded and independent association with all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction and stroke.     

Pooled Analysis of Non-Union,Re-Operation,Infection, and Approach Related Complications after Anterior Odontoid Screw Fixation

Background

Anterior odontoid screw fixation (AOSF) has been one of the most popular treatments for odontoid fractures. However, the true efficacy of AOSF remains unclear. In this study, we aimed to provide the pooled rates of non-union, reoperation, infection, and approach related complications after AOSF for odontoid fractures.

Methods

We searched studies that discussed complications after AOSF for type II or type III odontoid fractures. A proportion meta-analysis was done and potential sources of heterogeneity were explored by meta-regression analysis.

Results

Of 972 references initially identified, 63 were eligible for inclusion. 54 studies provided data regarding non-union. The pooled non-union rate was 10% (95% CI: 7%–3%). 48 citations provided re-operation information with a pooled proportion of 5% (95% CI: 3%–7%). Infection was described in 20 studies with an overall rate of 0.2% (95% CI: 0%–1.2%). The main approach related complication is postoperative dysphagia with a pooled rate of 10% (95% CI: 4%–17%). Proportions for the other approach related complications such as postoperative hoarseness (1.2%, 95% CI: 0%–3.7%), esophageal/retropharyngeal injury (0%, 95% CI: 0%–1.1%), wound hematomas (0.2%, 95% CI: 0%–1.8%), and spinal cord injury (0%, 95% CI: 0%–0.2%) were very low. Significant heterogeneities were detected when we combined the rates of non-union, re-operation, and dysphagia. Multivariate meta-regression analysis showed that old age was significantly predictive of non-union. Subgroup comparisons showed significant higher non-union rates in age ≥70 than that in age ≤40 and in age 40 to <50. Meta-regression analysis did not reveal any examined variables influencing the re-operation rate. Meta-regression analysis showed age had a significant effect on the dysphagia rate.

Conclusions/Significances

This study summarized the rates of non-union, reoperation, infection, and approach related complications after AOSF for odontoid factures. Elderly patients were more likely to experience non-union and dysphagia.     

Predictors of Bisexual Behaviour among MSM Attending Intervention Sites May Help in Prevention Interventions for This Bridge to the Heterosexual Epidemic in India: Data from HIV Sentinel Surveillance

Background

Indian cultural tradition demanding marriage, many MSM howsoever they self-identify are likely to be married or have sex with women. To consolidate India''s HIV prevention gains, it is important to understand and address the interaction between the MSM and heterosexual epidemics in India and create specific interventions for bisexual MSM. The challenge is to identify and intervene this hard to reach population. Data from HIV Sentinel Surveillance 2011 among MSM in four Indian states were analyzed to assess predictors and prevalence of bisexual behaviour in MSM.

Methods

Between March-May 2011, 4682 men (15–49 years) who had anal/oral sex with a male partner in the past month, attending intervention sites and consenting for an un-linked anonymous survey answered an 11- item questionnaire and provided blood for HIV test by finger stick at 19 designated surveillance sites.

Results

Of 4682 MSM tested overall, 5% were illiterate, 51% reported only receptive anal intercourse, 21% only penetrative and 28% both. 36% MSM had ever received money for sex. Overall 6.8% were HIV infected. 44% MSM were bisexual in the last six months. On multivariate analysis, ‘being bisexual’ was found to be independently associated with ‘older age’: 26–30 years [AOR = 3.1, 95% CI(2.7, 3.7)], >30 years [AOR = 6.5, 95% CI(5.5, 7.7)]; ‘reporting penetrative behaviour alone’ with other men [AOR = 5.8, 95% CI(4.8, 7.0), p<0.01] and ‘reporting both penetrative and receptive behaviour’ [AOR = 2.7, 95% CI(2.3, 3.1) p<0.01]. Those who both paid and received money for sex [AOR = 0.49, 95% CI (0.38, 0.62)] were significantly less likely to be bisexual.

Conclusions

A substantial proportion of men receiving services from Targeted Intervention programs are bisexual and the easy opportunity for intervention in this setting should be capitalised upon. Focusing on older MSM, as well as MSM who show penetrative behaviour with other men, could help in reaching this population.     

Place and Cause of Death in Centenarians: A Population-Based Observational Study in England, 2001 to 2010

Background

Centenarians are a rapidly growing demographic group worldwide, yet their health and social care needs are seldom considered. This study aims to examine trends in place of death and associations for centenarians in England over 10 years to consider policy implications of extreme longevity.

Methods and Findings

This is a population-based observational study using death registration data linked with area-level indices of multiple deprivations for people aged ≥100 years who died 2001 to 2010 in England, compared with those dying at ages 80-99. We used linear regression to examine the time trends in number of deaths and place of death, and Poisson regression to evaluate factors associated with centenarians’ place of death. The cohort totalled 35,867 people with a median age at death of 101 years (range: 100–115 years). Centenarian deaths increased 56% (95% CI 53.8%–57.4%) in 10 years. Most died in a care home with (26.7%, 95% CI 26.3%–27.2%) or without nursing (34.5%, 95% CI 34.0%–35.0%) or in hospital (27.2%, 95% CI 26.7%–27.6%). The proportion of deaths in nursing homes decreased over 10 years (−0.36% annually, 95% CI −0.63% to −0.09%, p = 0.014), while hospital deaths changed little (0.25% annually, 95% CI −0.06% to 0.57%, p = 0.09). Dying with frailty was common with “old age” stated in 75.6% of death certifications. Centenarians were more likely to die of pneumonia (e.g., 17.7% [95% CI 17.3%–18.1%] versus 6.0% [5.9%–6.0%] for those aged 80–84 years) and old age/frailty (28.1% [27.6%–28.5%] versus 0.9% [0.9%–0.9%] for those aged 80–84 years) and less likely to die of cancer (4.4% [4.2%–4.6%] versus 24.5% [24.6%–25.4%] for those aged 80–84 years) and ischemic heart disease (8.6% [8.3%–8.9%] versus 19.0% [18.9%–19.0%] for those aged 80–84 years) than were younger elderly patients. More care home beds available per 1,000 population were associated with fewer deaths in hospital (PR 0.98, 95% CI 0.98–0.99, p<0.001).

Conclusions

Centenarians are more likely to have causes of death certified as pneumonia and frailty and less likely to have causes of death of cancer or ischemic heart disease, compared with younger elderly patients. To reduce reliance on hospital care at the end of life requires recognition of centenarians’ increased likelihood to “acute” decline, notably from pneumonia, and wider provision of anticipatory care to enable people to remain in their usual residence, and increasing care home bed capacity. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Risk Factors Associated with HIV Infection among Male Homosexuals and Bisexuals Followed in an Open Cohort Study: Project Horizonte,Brazil (1994-2010)

Background

There has recently been an increase in HIV infection rates among men who have sex with men (MSM). This study aimed at investigating risk factors associated with incident HIV infection in a MSM cohort–Project Horizonte, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil.

Methodology

This is a nested case-control study in an ongoing open cohort of homosexual and bisexual men, carried out in 1994–2010, during which 1,085 volunteers were enrolled. Each HIV seroconverted volunteer (case) was compared with three randomly selected HIV negative controls, matched by admission date and age (±3 years). During follow-up, 93 volunteers seroconverted and were compared with 279 controls.

Principal Findings

The risk factors associated with HIV seroconversion were: contact with partner’s blood during sexual relations (OR 3.7; 95% CI 1.2–11.6), attendance at gay saunas in search for sexual partners (OR 2.6; 95% CI 1.3–5.4), occasional intake of alcohol when flirting and engaging in sexual activity (OR 2.5; 95% CI 1.3–5.1), inconsistent use of condoms in receptive anal sex (OR 2.4; 95% CI 1.1–5.4), little interest to look up information about AIDS (OR 2.6; 95% CI 1.0–6.7) particularly in newspapers (OR 3.4; 95% CI 1.4–8.1).

Conclusions

This study shows that MSM are still engaging in risk behavior, such as unprotected anal intercourse, despite taking part in a cohort study on various preventive measures. New preventive strategies in touch with the epidemic’s development and the specificities of this particular population are needed.     

The Accuracy of Spot Sign in Predicting Hematoma Expansion after Intracerebral Hemorrhage: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Purpose

The role of spot sign on computed tomography angiography (CTA) for predicting hematoma expansion (HE) after primary intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) has been the focus of many studies. Our study sought to evaluate the predictive accuracy of spot signs for HE in a meta-analytic approach.

Materials and Methods

The database of Pubmed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library were searched for eligible studies. Researches were included if they reported data on HE in primary ICH patients, assessed by spot sign on first-pass CTA. Studies with additional data of second-pass CTA, post-contrast CT (PCCT) and CT perfusion (CTP) were also included.

Results

18 studies were pooled into the meta-analysis, including 14 studies of first-pass CTA, and 7 studies of combined CT modalities. In evaluating the accuracy of spot sign for predicting HE, studies of first-pass CTA showed that the sensitivity was 53% (95% CI, 49%–57%) with a specificity of 88% (95% CI, 86%–89%). The pooled positive likelihood ratio (PLR) was 4.70 (95% CI, 3.28–6.74) and the negative likelihood ratio (NLR) was 0.44 (95% CI, 0.34–0.58). For studies of combined CT modalities, the sensitivity was 73% (95% CI, 67%–79%) with a specificity of 88% (95% CI, 86%–90%). The aggregated PLR was 6.76 (95% CI, 3.70–12.34) and the overall NLR was 0.17 (95% CI 0.06–0.48).

Conclusions

Spot signs appeared to be a reliable imaging biomarker for HE. The additional detection of delayed spot sign was helpful in improving the predictive accuracy of early spot signs. Awareness of our results may impact the primary ICH care by providing supportive evidence for the use of combined CT modalities in detecting spot signs.     

Placebo Use in the United Kingdom: Results from a National Survey of Primary Care Practitioners

Objectives

Surveys in various countries suggest 17% to 80% of doctors prescribe ‘placebos’ in routine practice, but prevalence of placebo use in UK primary care is unknown.

Methods

We administered a web-based questionnaire to a representative sample of UK general practitioners. Following surveys conducted in other countries we divided placebos into ‘pure’ and ‘impure’. ‘Impure’ placebos are interventions with clear efficacy for certain conditions but are prescribed for ailments where their efficacy is unknown, such as antibiotics for suspected viral infections. ‘Pure’ placebos are interventions such as sugar pills or saline injections without direct pharmacologically active ingredients for the condition being treated. We initiated the survey in April 2012. Two reminders were sent and electronic data collection closed after 4 weeks.

Results

We surveyed 1715 general practitioners and 783 (46%) completed our questionnaire. Our respondents were similar to those of all registered UK doctors suggesting our results are generalizable. 12% (95% CI 10 to 15) of respondents used pure placebos while 97% (95% CI 96 to 98) used impure placebos at least once in their career. 1% of respondents used pure placebos, and 77% (95% CI 74 to 79) used impure placebos at least once per week. Most (66% for pure, 84% for impure) respondents stated placebos were ethical in some circumstances.

Conclusion and implications

Placebo use is common in primary care but questions remain about their benefits, harms, costs, and whether they can be delivered ethically. Further research is required to investigate ethically acceptable and cost-effective placebo interventions.