Effectiveness of Spayvac for reducing white-tailed deer fertility

Overabundant white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations have been reported in many urban and suburban communities across the United States. Large populations of deer can potentially increase the risk of human-wildlife conflicts, such as deer-vehicle collisions, transmission of disease to humans, and vegetation damage. In 2003, efforts to control white-tailed deer numbers were initiated at the National Aeronautical and Space Agency's (NASA) Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center (JSC) in Houston, Texas, using the long-lasting, single-dose contraceptive SpayVac. Our objectives were to evaluate the effectiveness of SpayVac for reducing white-tailed deer fertility and determine the partial cost for treatment. Between 2003 and 2004, we monitored 45 adult female deer (34 treated with SpayVac, 11 controls treated with a placebo). Fawning rate over 2 yr for deer treated with SpayVac >30 days prior to the rut was 0% (n=31), whereas the fawning rate for control deer was 78% (n=11). Inoculation 1 mo prior to the breeding season was sufficient time to achieve fertility control. We conclude that SpayVac can effectively reduce the fertility of urban white-tailed deer.     

Incorporating harvest rates into the sex-age-kill model for white-tailed deer

Although monitoring population trends is an essential component of game species management, wildlife managers rarely have complete counts of abundance. Often, they rely on population models to monitor population trends. As imperfect representations of real-world populations, models must be rigorously evaluated to be applied appropriately. Previous research has evaluated population models for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus); however, the precision and reliability of these models when tested against empirical measures of variability and bias largely is untested. We were able to statistically evaluate the Pennsylvania sex-age-kill (PASAK) population model using realistic error measured using data from 1,131 radiocollared white-tailed deer in Pennsylvania from 2002 to 2008. We used these data and harvest data (number killed, age-sex structure, etc.) to estimate precision of abundance estimates, identify the most efficient harvest data collection with respect to precision of parameter estimates, and evaluate PASAK model robustness to violation of assumptions. Median coefficient of variation (CV) estimates by Wildlife Management Unit, 13.2% in the most recent year, were slightly above benchmarks recommended for managing game species populations. Doubling reporting rates by hunters or doubling the number of deer checked by personnel in the field reduced median CVs to recommended levels. The PASAK model was robust to errors in estimates for adult male harvest rates but was sensitive to errors in subadult male harvest rates, especially in populations with lower harvest rates. In particular, an error in subadult (1.5-yr-old) male harvest rates resulted in the opposite error in subadult male, adult female, and juvenile population estimates. Also, evidence of a greater harvest probability for subadult female deer when compared with adult (≥2.5-yr-old) female deer resulted in a 9.5% underestimate of the population using the PASAK model. Because obtaining appropriate sample sizes, by management unit, to estimate harvest rate parameters each year may be too expensive, assumptions of constant annual harvest rates may be necessary. However, if changes in harvest regulations or hunter behavior influence subadult male harvest rates, the PASAK model could provide an unreliable index to population changes. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Evaluation of Accuracy and Precision of Downing Population Reconstruction

ABSTRACT Downing population reconstruction uses harvest-by-age data and backward addition of cohorts to estimate minimum population size over time. Although this technique is currently being used for management of black bear (Ursus americanus) and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations, it had not undergone a rigorous evaluation of accuracy. We used computer simulations to evaluate the impacts of collapsing age classes and violating the assumptions of this technique on population reconstruction estimates and trends. Changes in harvest rate or survival over time affected accuracy of reconstructed population estimates and trends. The technique was quite robust to collapsing age classes as far as 3+ for bears and deer. This method would be suitable for estimating population growth rate (λ) for populations experiencing no trend in harvest rate or natural mortality rate over time. Our evaluation showed Downing population reconstruction to be a potentially valuable tool for managing harvested species with high harvest rates and low natural mortality, with possible application to black bear and white-tailed deer populations.     

Influence of Landscape Composition and Structure on Antler Size of White-Tailed Deer

Abstract: Cause for spatial variation in phenotypic quality of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations is of great interest to wildlife managers. Relating phenotypic variation of populations to large-scale land-use patterns may provide insight into why populations exhibit spatial variation and elucidate how management can influence population phenotype. We used an information-theoretic approach to relate average antler size of 203 deer populations to composition and structure of the habitat occupied by those populations. We used interspersion, edge, and diversity indices to represent habitat structure and percentage of area in vegetation types to represent habitat composition. Landscape composition was a better predictor of deer population antler size than was landscape structure. Percentages of the management unit in agriculture, pasture, and pine forest were variables commonly found in the region-specific set of best models. Model-averaged estimates of agriculture and pasture parameters were always positive and estimates of pine forest parameters were always negative, which suggests that land-use types that promote growth of early successional herbaceous plants will positively influence antler size and, most likely, body growth and reproduction of white-tailed deer populations. Conversely, our findings suggest landscapes dominated by pine forests did not provide optimal amounts of quality forages for white-tailed deer. Pine forest effects should be mitigated using a combination of increased harvest to lower deer density and silvicultural practices like thinning, prescribed burning, and selective herbicide applications that stimulate growth of high-quality forages beneath the forest canopy to improve deer phenotypic quality.     

The walk is never random: subtle landscape effects shape gene flow in a continuous white-tailed deer population in the Midwestern United States

One of the pervasive challenges in landscape genetics is detecting gene flow patterns within continuous populations of highly mobile wildlife. Understanding population genetic structure within a continuous population can give insights into social structure, movement across the landscape and contact between populations, which influence ecological interactions, reproductive dynamics or pathogen transmission. We investigated the genetic structure of a large population of deer spanning the area of Wisconsin and Illinois, USA, affected by chronic wasting disease. We combined multiscale investigation, landscape genetic techniques and spatial statistical modelling to address the complex questions of landscape factors influencing population structure. We sampled over 2000 deer and used spatial autocorrelation and a spatial principal components analysis to describe the population genetic structure. We evaluated landscape effects on this pattern using a spatial autoregressive model within a model selection framework to test alternative hypotheses about gene flow. We found high levels of genetic connectivity, with gradients of variation across the large continuous population of white-tailed deer. At the fine scale, spatial clustering of related animals was correlated with the amount and arrangement of forested habitat. At the broader scale, impediments to dispersal were important to shaping genetic connectivity within the population. We found significant barrier effects of individual state and interstate highways and rivers. Our results offer an important understanding of deer biology and movement that will help inform the management of this species in an area where overabundance and disease spread are primary concerns.     

Effects of Maternal Status on the Movement and Mortality of Sterilized Female White-Tailed Deer

Abstract: Surgical sterilization by tubal ligation has been proposed as a technique for controlling white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations in urban or suburban areas where other forms of population control are impractical, but little is known about demographic rates in populations under management with surgical sterilization. We analyzed seasonal movement and mortality data collected during a 4-year study of surgical sterilization in suburban Chicago, Illinois, USA. We calculated 323 home range size estimates for 62 individual females within season and year. Non-gravid females without young exhibited home range sizes 52% larger than gravid females and females with fawns. Mortality rate was positively correlated with home range size. We suggest that the increased mortality rate observed in surgically sterilized females may be due to greater movement by non-maternal females. Population managers will need to account for potential effects of maternal status on movement and mortality when considering the use of sterilization for management of suburban populations of white-tailed deer.     

Reduction and Maintenance of a White-Tailed Deer Herd in Central Massachusetts

Abstract: Controlled public hunts have been used in a variety of settings to reduce overabundant white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) herds. We present the results of a large-scale (160 km²) controlled hunt at Quabbin Reservation (QR) in central Massachusetts, USA. The QR was divided into 5 hunt zones. Hunting was initiated in each zone from 1991 to 1994 and continued through 2004. The management goal was to achieve posthunt deer densities of4 deer/km². Initial estimated deer densities in each zone ranged from 11.4 deer/km² to 27.6 deer/km². The management goals were reached in each zone after 2-4 years of hunting. Posthunt populations were maintained at or below the goal even though total hunter effort was reduced. Hunters were not required to harvest antlerless deer, but antlerless deer comprised 55-83% of the harvest each year. We simulated the effects of 5 years without hunting on deer populations. The simulated deer population exceeded management goals after 2 years. Our results demonstrate that controlled public deer hunts can effectively reduce deer populations and maintain them at desired levels over large areas with minimal hunter restrictions. Managers should prepare stakeholders during the hunt planning process for the need to continue overall harvest rates of >30% during the maintenance phase of a deer management program.     

Acceptance of Deer Management Strategies by Suburban Homeowners and Bowhunters

Abstract: More communities are experiencing problems associated with overabundant white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations. Public acceptance of approaches for managing deer may differ within communities. Although hunting with firearms is a common practice used to manage deer populations, many suburban communities only allow bowhunting. Our objectives were to assess suburban homeowners and bowhunters acceptance of lethal and nonlethal deer management strategies. Additionally, we wanted to determine homeowner willingness to pay for deer management and how long they would be willing to wait for relief to address conflicts caused by deer overabundance. Most homeowners supported using lethal strategies to reduce and manage deer populations. Most homeowners were unaware of the cost (94%) or effectiveness (92%) of birth control agents to manage free-ranging deer populations. Of lethal strategies, bowhunting was preferred. Establishment of a special crossbow season outside the existing archery season received the greatest support by bowhunters and was also acceptable to homeowners. As landscapes progressed from rural to more urban, hunting access, human-wildlife conflicts, and homeowner willingness to pay for deer management decreased. Regardless of management strategy, most homeowners were willing to wait 3-5 years to achieve a desired reduction in the deer population at no cost to them. As costs increased, homeowner willingness to wait decreased. Because exposure, tolerance of deer, and willingness to pay for management varies by landscapes, towns with diverse landscapes should consider developing regional rather than town-wide plans to manage overabundant deer populations.     

Integrated Management Strategies for Amblyomma Americanum (Acari: Ixodidae) in Non-Agricultural Areas

The simulation model LSTSIM was revised and adapted to estimate the effects of different management strategies on populations of the lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum (Linnaeus), in non-agricultural areas. The control technologies evaluated were area-wide acaricide application, acaricide self-treatment of white-tailed deer, vegetation reduction and reductions in the density of white-tailed deer. Estimated changes in tick populations using these technologies compared favorably with results from actual integrated tick management studies at five different geographic locations. Area-wide acaricide application and vegetation reduction, as well as combinations of the two technologies proved to be useful for short-term, seasonal management of ticks in small non-agricultural areas and residential sites. Self-treatment of deer with acaricide, applied topically or as a systemic, appears to be the most cost-effective technology for use in area-wide, long-term programs for tick control. The results of simulations suggest that reductions in deer density should be considered as a component of any tick management program.     

Spotlight surveys for white-tailed deer: Monitoring panacea or exercise in futility?

Many monitoring programs for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) on both private and public lands across the United States have long relied on the use of road-based spotlight surveys for monitoring population size and trends. Research has suggested spotlight surveys are ineffective and that road-based surveys for deer are biased because of highly variable detection rates. To evaluate variability in detection rates relative to the assumption that repeated surveys along roads will provide reliable trend data for use in calculating deer density estimates, we collected 5 years of thermal-imager and spotlight survey data using a multiple-observer, closed-capture approach. Using a Huggin's closed capture model, data bootstrapping, and variance components analyses, our results suggest that density estimates for white-tailed deer generated from data collected during road-based spotlight surveys are likely not reflective of the standing deer population. Detection probabilities during individual spotlight surveys ranged from 0.00 to 0.80 (median = 0.45) across all surveys, and differed by observer, survey, management unit, and survey transect replicate. Mean spotlight detection probability (0.41) and process standard deviation (0.12) estimates indicated considerable variability across surveys, observers, transects, and years, which precludes the generation of a correction factor or use of spotlight data to evaluate long-term trends at any scale. Although recommended by many state, federal, and non-governmental agencies, our results suggest that the benefit of spotlight survey data for monitoring deer populations is limited and likely represents a waste of resources with no appreciable management information gained. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Estimating Deer Populations Using Camera Traps and Natural Marks

Despite the ubiquity of camera traps in wildlife monitoring projects, the data gathered are rarely used to estimate wildlife population demographics, a critical step in detecting declines, managing populations, and understanding ecosystem health. In contrast to abundant white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in the eastern United States, black-tailed deer (Odocoileus hemionus columbianus) in the western United States have declined over the past several decades. We tested whether passively operating camera traps can be used to quantify population characteristics for black-tailed deer. We used images of naturally occurring physical characteristics of deer to develop movement and activity data and inform a Bayesian spatial mark-resight model that estimates deer abundance, density, sex ratio, ratio of fawns to adult females, and home range size. We developed the model to account for the effect of attractants (bait) on encounter rate. We placed 13 cameras on all known water sources of a private ranch in California and provided bait once a month in front of each camera. Over 9,000 visits occurred between 24 May 2012 and 21 January 2013, and we identified 50 individual deer from ear notches or antler characteristics. We estimated density at 7.7 deer/km² in summer and 8.6 deer/km² in fall. In the summer, home ranges were 2.3 km² for females and fawns and 16.8 km² for males. Home ranges constricted slightly in fall. We estimated a sex ratio of 12.5 males/100 females, and a ratio of 47.0 fawns/100 adult females. Bait increased baseline encounter rates (visits/week) by 3.7 times in summer and 4.95 times in fall. We found slightly higher densities of deer in our study area compared to other recent studies in more mountainous areas of California, and lower male:female sex ratios. This approach shows that commonly deployed camera traps can be used to quantify population characteristics, monitor populations, and inform harvest or habitat management decisions. © 2019 The Wildlife Society.     

Diets,Movements, and Consequences of Providing Wildlife Food Plots for White-Tailed Deer in Central North Dakota

ABSTRACT White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in North Dakota, USA, have greatly increased over the past 100 years due to conversion of prairie to agriculture, planting of tree rows, regulated hunting, and extirpation of large predators. In support of management to maintain harvestable big game while minimizing depredation damage to agriculture, the North Dakota Game and Fish Department manages wildlife management areas (WMAs) where planted trees and food plots provide habitat and public hunting. These WMAs are typically surrounded by agricultural fields, and management that concentrates deer in these areas may expose surrounding agricultural producers to increased depredation. We investigated diets, habitat use, and movements of white-tailed deer at a large WMA in central North Dakota (Lonetree WMA) to understand how the animals are responding to management designed to enhance wildlife populations. We also evaluated survival of white-tailed deer for an improved understanding of the recent trend for population growth. Diets of deer varied seasonally, including a relatively high proportion of crops from food plots in winter and mostly herbaceous forbs and browse during spring and summer. Data from radiocollared animals and biweekly spotlight surveys revealed that deer are being drawn from a relatively large area to Lonetree WMA during fall and winter. Hunting was the most important cause of mortality, but annual survival of adult and fawn females exceeded 80%. The original purpose of food plots at Lonetree WMA was to alleviate depredation on adjacent private lands. Depredation has been limited, but the multiyear trend of increased deer numbers is a new concern. A possible consequence of provisioning white-tailed deer with food plots during winter when some starvation would normally occur could be for the population to exceed a threshold above which regulated hunting will be unable to prevent irruptive growth. Research on how food plots influence winter survival is needed to inform management and prevent possible rapid increase in white-tailed deer populations across the prairie-coteau region of central North Dakota.     

Survival and Cause-Specific Mortality of Mature Male White-Tailed Deer

ABSTRACT Understanding sources of male deer mortality is a prerequisite to a successful management program, especially in Texas, USA, where white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) are the most economically important game species. South Texas, USA, is one of the few areas where males reach older age classes (> 4.5 yr), in part because of intense population management. Therefore, we obtained survival rates and causes of mortality of 48 mature male deer in south Texas, USA, over 2 years. We calculated Kaplan—Meier survival estimates during 2 study years modified for a staggered-entry design and annual survival rates for one cohort of deer from 1998 to 2004 using recapture and radiotelemetry data. We documented 21 mortalities (16 harvest and 5 nonhunting mortalities). Average annual survival of the known-aged 1998 cohort was 82% with 52% of surviving to 6.5 years of age. Survival in study year 2 (0.497 ± 0.069) was less than in study year 1 (0.781 ± 0.073; P = 0.0047), largely because males had finally reached harvestable age (> 6.5 yr old). All but one non-harvest mortality occurred during the rut or postrut periods. It appears that a large percentage of males can reach mature age classes under intense population management, making them available for harvest when at peak antler size. This allows for increased economic returns on intensively managed white-tailed deer populations.     

The Impact of White-Tailed Deer on Agricultural Landscapes in 3 National Historical Parks in Maryland

Abstract: The legislative authorization of some United States national historical parks (NHP) includes maintaining an agricultural landscape as a management objective. This management objective can prove difficult to accomplish in some NHP given increasing white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) densities. Our goal was to quantify the impact of white-tailed deer foraging on agricultural landscapes in forested NHPs in Maryland, USA. We monitored 12 and 13 corn (Zea mays) fields at 3 NHP during the 2003 and 2004, respectively. Each field had ***3 5 × 5-m fenced and unfenced plots along the edge and a similar set within the interior of the field. Within each plot we examined the number of stalks with corn, corn ear quality, and field weight prior to harvest. Fenced plots had higher weights of corn, more stalks with corn ears, and higher quality corn than unfenced plots. Estimates of silage yield based on crop weights indicate deer reduced silage yield in individual fields by 5-43% during the study period. Crop loss differed between years and fields, with plots in the Chesapeake and Ohio Canal NHP sustaining the highest crop weight loss (28%). Eventual crop loss was correlated with proportion of corn plants browsed within 2 weeks of emergence. Some variability in loss between fields was due to landscape metrics, as fields surrounded by more forest experienced the highest loss. Our results indicate the NHP agriculture fields we studied receive significant deer damage to corn crops and may not be able to maintain mandated management without regulating deer numbers.     

Is hunting an effective tool to control overabundant deer? A test using an experimental approach

Overabundant populations of cervids have induced drastic negative effects on plant communities in several regions worldwide. Antlerless deer harvest by sport hunters has been proposed as a potential solution to overabundance because the philopatric behavior of female deer is expected to limit recolonization of hunted zones. The efficiency of this method, however, has rarely been tested in the wild. Using a large-scale experimental design, we reduced white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) density within 5 20-km² areas on Anticosti Island (Québec, Canada). Our objective was to harvest 50% of antlerless deer in each site during the first year of the study in 2002, and 30% from 2003 to 2006. We monitored deer density, vegetation abundance and growth as well as deer life-history traits during 6 years in these experimental sites and in 5 control sites where harvest rate was 5–7%. Overall, we achieved 93% of harvest objectives. Contrary to our expectations, however, deer density, vegetation abundance and growth, and deer life-history traits did not vary differently in experimental and control sites during the study period. They rather varied stochastically but synchronously. We discuss several alternative hypotheses that may explain these results, including 1) compensatory mechanisms, 2) biases in density estimates, 3) limited access to territory for hunters, 4) large target areas for localized management, 5) low hunter density, 6) recolonization by surrounding deer, 7) slow plant response under canopy cover, and 8) bottom-up mechanisms. Given the large efforts invested in this study, we conclude that the local control of abundant cervid populations through sport hunting may be difficult to achieve in many natural environments. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Spatial heterogeneity of mitochondrial DNA and allozymes among populations of white-tailed deer and mule deer.

A white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) population in northeastern Minnesota and a mule deer (O. hemionus) population in the Bridger Mountains Montana, have previously been shown to be spatially subdivided into contiguous subpopulations. We assessed the degree of genetic differentiation among subpopulations and tested the hypothesis that differentiation will be greater for mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) than for nuclear-encoded allozymes. Differentiation of the white-tailed deer subpopulations was significant for two allozyme loci but not for mtDNA, and the overall degree of differentiation was low. Gene flow, recent founding of the subpopulations, and polygamous breeding structure may all have contributed to this pattern. Greater differentiation was evident among disjunct populations than between the contiguous subpopulations of white-tailed deer. The contiguous mule deer subpopulations were significantly differentiated for mtDNA and one allozyme locus. Differentiation was greater for mtDNA than for allozymes. These results are consistent with demographic data that indicate mule deer males disperse more than do females. Disjunct mule deer populations may be similar or dramatically different in mtDNA haplotype frequencies that do not necessarily vary with geographic distance. Current and historical gene flow and breeding structure will influence population genetic patterns.     

Orchid (Orchidaceae) decline in the Catoctin Mountains,Frederick County,Maryland as documented by a long-term dataset

A 41-year study (1968–2008) of the orchids of the Catoctin Mountains, Frederick County, Maryland reveals that 19 of 21 species have experienced precipitous declines. Four of these species are currently considered Threatened or Endangered by the State of Maryland and another two are considered Rare. Annual census data at 167 sites from throughout the Catoctin Mountains on protected and unprotected lands (private and public) show a loss of three species from the study area, a decline of >90 % (ranging from 99 to 91 %) in seven species, and a decline of <90 % (ranging from 51 to 87 %) for nine species. Each species was analyzed using Ordinary Least Squares Analysis to show trends and document corresponding R² and p values. We tested the hypothesis that this decline is due to intensified herbivory by white-tailed deer. The overall orchid census data is significantly inversely-correlated (R = ?0.93) to the white-tailed deer harvest data of Frederick County (a surrogate for population size), which includes the entirety of the study area. Platanthera ciliaris showed a huge expansion at a single site explicitly managed for this species otherwise this orchid showed a decline similar to the other species. Proper management is critical for the continuation of the orchid species in this study, be it control of the white-tailed deer herd or combating woody plant succession in the case of P. ciliaris.     

Effects of selective harvest on antler size in white-tailed deer: A modeling approach

Selective harvesting in wild deer (Odocoileus spp.) populations is a common practice that may influence antler size. However, in free-ranging populations, response due to selection is unknown or difficult to quantify because antlers are influenced by nutrition and population demographics. We used quantitative genetic models to predict how white-tailed deer (O. virginianus) antlers would respond to selection and what variables (i.e., population size, age structure, mating ratio, and heritability) most affected antler size. We validated our quantitative genetics program by comparing model results with a population of deer used for controlled breeding experiments; modeled antler points (AP) and score increased (2.2–4.3 AP and 48.5–97.7 cm, respectively) after 8 years of selection, similar to observed increases in AP (3.2) and score (92.3 cm) from the controlled population. In modeled free-ranging populations, mating ratio, age structure, and heritability were more important in influencing antler size than size of the population. However, response to selection in free-ranging populations was lower (0.1–0.9 AP) than controlled breeding populations even after 20 years of selection. These results show that selective harvesting of free-ranging white-tailed deer may be inefficient to change population-level genetic characteristics related to antler size. Response of antlers in free-ranging deer will be less than controlled populations, and possibly modeled free-ranging simulations, because individual reproductive success of males is lower, breeding is done by a large group of males, and reproductive and survival rates are lower. These factors, and others, reduce the amount of improvement that can be made to antlers due to selection. Therefore, selective harvesting in free-ranging populations should be justified for managing population demographics and dynamics, but not for changing the genetic characteristics of populations. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Combining genetic structure and demographic analyses to estimate persistence in endangered Key deer (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Odocoileus virginianus clavium</Emphasis>)

Recent improvements in genetic analyses have paved the way in using molecular data to answer questions regarding evolutionary history, genetic structure, and demography. Key deer are a federally endangered subspecies assumed to be genetically unique, homogeneous, and have a female-biased population of approximately 900 deer. We used 985 bp of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene and 12 microsatellite loci to test two hypotheses: (1) that Key deer are isolated and have reduced diversity compared to mainland deer and (2) that isolation of the Florida Keys has led to a small population size and a high risk of extinction. Our results indicate that Key deer are indeed genetically isolated from mainland white-tailed deer and that there is a lack of genetic substructure between islands. While Key deer exhibit reduced levels of genetic diversity compared to their mainland counterparts, they contain enough diversity to uniquely identify individual deer. Based on genetic identification, we estimated a census size of around 1000 individuals with a heavily skewed female-biased adult sex ratio. Furthermore, our genetic and contemporary demographic data were used to generate a species persistence model of the Key deer. Sensitivity tests within the population viability analysis brought to light the importance of fetal sex ratio and female survival as the primary factors at risk of driving the subspecies to extinction. This study serves as a prime example of how persistence models can be used to evaluate population viability in natural populations of endangered organisms.