Estimating and modeling the cure fraction in population-based cancer survival analysis

In population-based cancer studies, cure is said to occur when the mortality (hazard) rate in the diseased group of individuals returns to the same level as that expected in the general population. The cure fraction (the proportion of patients cured of disease) is of interest to patients and is a useful measure to monitor trends in survival of curable disease. There are 2 main types of cure fraction model, the mixture cure fraction model and the non-mixture cure fraction model, with most previous work concentrating on the mixture cure fraction model. In this paper, we extend the parametric non-mixture cure fraction model to incorporate background mortality, thus providing estimates of the cure fraction in population-based cancer studies. We compare the estimates of relative survival and the cure fraction between the 2 types of model and also investigate the importance of modeling the ancillary parameters in the selected parametric distribution for both types of model.     

Adjusting for the proportion of cancer deaths in the general population when using relative survival: a sensitivity analysis

Background: Relative survival is an extensively used method in population based cancer studies as it provides a measure of survival without the need for accurate cause of death information. It gives an estimate for the probability of dying from cancer in the absence of other causes by estimating the excess mortality in the study population when compared to an external group. The external group is usually the general population within a country or state and mortality estimates are taken from national life tables that are broken down by age, sex, calendar year and, where applicable, race/ethnicity. One potential bias when using relative survival that is most often overlooked occurs when there are a high proportion of deaths due to a specific cancer in the external group. Methods: This paper uses data from the Finnish Cancer Registry to illustrate, through the use of a simple sensitivity analysis, the impact that specific cancer deaths in the population mortality figures can have on the estimate of relative survival. Results: We found that when examining specific diseases such as breast cancer and colon cancer, the proportion of deaths due to these specific cancers in the general population is so small in comparison to the total mortality that they make little difference to the relative survival estimates. However, prostate cancer proved to be an exception to this. For all cancer sites combined the sensitivity analysis illustrates a major limitation for this type of analysis, particularly with the older age groups. Conclusion: We recommend that, with a classification of diseases as wide as all cancer sites, relative survival should not be used without appropriate adjustment.     

Temporal trends in net and crude probability of death from cancer and other causes in the Australian population, 1984–2013

BackgroundWhile net probabilities of death in the relative survival framework ignore competing causes of death, crude probabilities allow estimation of the real risk of cancer deaths. This study quantifies temporal trends in net and crude probabilities of death.MethodsAustralian population-based cohort of 2,015,903 people aged 15-89 years, diagnosed with a single primary invasive cancer from 1984 to 2013 with mortality follow-up to 31 December 2014. Survival was analyzed with the cohort method. Flexible parametric relative survival models were used to estimate both probability measures by diagnosis year for all cancers and selected leading sites.ResultsFor each site, excess mortality rates reduced over time, especially for prostate cancer. While both the 10-year net and crude probability of cancer deaths decreased over time, specific patterns varied. For example, the crude probability of lung cancer deaths for males aged 50 years decreased from 0.90 (1984) to 0.79 (2013); whereas the corresponding probabilities for kidney cancer were 0.64 and 0.18 respectively. Patterns for crude probabilities of competing deaths were relatively constant. Although for younger patients, both net and crude measures were similar, crude probability of competing deaths increased with age, hence for older ages net and crude measures were different except for lung and pancreas cancers.ConclusionsThe observed reductions in probabilities of death over three decades for Australian cancer patients are encouraging. However, this study also highlights the ongoing mortality burden following a cancer diagnosis, and the need for continuing efforts to improve cancer prevention, diagnosis and treatment.     

Estimating the cure proportion of malignant melanoma,an alternative approach to assess long term survival: A population-based study

ObjectivesA large proportion of patients with cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) do not experience excess mortality due to their disease. This group of patients is referred to as the cure proportion. Few studies have examined the possibility of cure for CMM. The aim of this study was to estimate the cure proportion of patients with CMM in a Swedish population.MethodsWe undertook a population-based study of 5850 CMM patients in two Swedish health care regions during 1996–2005. We used flexible parametric cure models to estimate cure proportions and median survival times (MSTs) of uncured by stage, sex, age and anatomical site.ResultsDisease stage at diagnosis was the most important factor for the probability of cure, with a cure proportion of approximately 1.0 for stage IA. While the probability of cure decreased with older age, the influence of age was smaller on the MST of uncured. Differences in prognosis between males and females were mainly attributed to differences in cure as opposed to differences in MST of uncured.ConclusionsThis population-based study showed approximately 100% cure among stage IA disease. Almost 50% of patients had stage IA disease and the high cure proportion for this large patient group is reassuring.     

Trends in breast cancer survival in Germany from 1976 to 2008--a period analysis by age and stage

Background: Implementation of mammography screening and advances in breast cancer treatment are considered as main reasons for the decline in breast cancer mortality observed in many industrialized countries during the past two decades. The purpose of this study was to provide a comprehensive assessment of trends in breast cancer incidence, mortality and survival by age and stage in Germany. Methods: Data from the population based Saarland Cancer Registry including patients diagnosed with breast cancer from 1972 to 2007 were used. Period analysis methods were employed to calculate 5-year relative survival and its trends. Results: Mortality started to decline during the 1990s, and a previous increase in incidence levelled off in the early 21st century. Overall age-standardized 5-year relative survival of invasive breast cancer steadily increased during the past three decades to 83% in 2004–2008. This increase was mostly due to an increase in survival for patients with localized cancers and locally or regionally spread tumours (increase of age-standardized 5-year relative survival from 92% to 98% and from 65% to 80%, respectively, between 1992 and 2008), whereas age-standardized 5-year relative survival essentially remained unchanged at levels close to 21% in patients with metastasized cancer. For women aged 70 years or older 5-year relative survival and its increase over time were inferior compared to younger patients. Conclusions: The observed trends in population based survival suggest that advances in treatment of early breast cancer have substantially contributed to the gain in prognosis. The poor prognosis of metastasized breast cancer patients and the increasing age gradient in 5-year relative survival call for enhanced efforts for early detection and more rigorous treatment of elderly patients.     

Breast Cancer Survival in Germany: A Population-Based High Resolution Study from Saarland

Population-based survival studies of breast cancer patients are commonly restricted to age- and stage-specific analyses. This study from Germany aimed at extending available population-based survival data on further prognostic cancer characteristics such as tumor grade, hormone receptor status and human epidermal growth factor receptor type 2 (HER2/neu) expression. Data from the population-based Saarland Cancer Registry including female patients diagnosed with invasive breast cancer between 2000 and 2009 were included. Period analysis methodology and regression modelling were used to obtain estimates of 5-year relative survival and tumor related excess risks in 2005-2009. Overall age standardized 5-year relative survival was 83%. In addition to age and stage, tumor grade and hormone receptor status were independent predictors of 5-year relative survival. Detailed analyses by age, stage, morphology, tumor grade, hormone receptor status and HER2/neu expression consistently revealed lower survival of patients with high grade, hormone receptor negative or HER2/neu positive cancers and patients aged 70 years or older. This high resolution study extends available population-based survival data of breast cancer patients. Particular efforts should be made to overcome the persisting large survival deficits, which were observed for elderly patients in all clinical subgroups.     

Survival of cancer patients in urban and rural areas of Germany—A comparison

BackgroundCancer care services including cancer prevention activities are predominantly localised in central cities, potentially causing a heterogeneous geographic access to cancer care. The question of an association between residence in either urban or rural areas and cancer survival has been analysed in other parts of the world with inconsistent results. This study aims at a comparison of age-standardised 5-year survival of cancer patients resident in German urban and rural regions using data from 11 population-based cancer registries covering a population of 33 million people.Material and methodsPatients diagnosed with cancers of the most frequent and of some rare sites in 1997–2006 were included in the analyses. Places of residence were assigned to rural and urban areas according to administrative district types of settlement structure. Period analysis and district type specific population life tables were used to calculate overall age-standardised 5-year relative survival estimates for the period 2002–2006. Poisson regression models for excess mortality (relative survival) were used to test for statistical significance.ResultsThe 5-year relative survival estimates varied little among district types for most of the common sites with no consistent trend. Significant differences were found for female breast cancer patients and male malignant melanoma patients resident in city core regions with slightly better survival compared to all other district types, particularly for patients aged 65 years and older.ConclusionWith regard to residence in urban or rural areas, the results of our study indicate that there are no severe differences concerning quality and accessibility of oncological care in Germany among different district types of settlement.     

Human Papillomavirus-Associated Subsequent Malignancies among Long-Term Survivors of Pediatric and Young Adult Cancers

Long-term survivors of pediatric and young adult (PAYA) cancers have a high incidence of subsequent neoplasms, but few risk factors other than cancer treatment have been identified. We aimed to describe the burden of human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated malignancies among survivors of PAYA cancers to assess whether HPV infections might be a reasonable area of future etiologic research on subsequent malignancies in this population. We used longitudinal data from 9 population-based registries of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program collected between 1973 and 2010 to assemble a cohort of individuals who were diagnosed with any cancer between the ages of 0 and 29 years and survived at least 5 years post-diagnosis. We estimated sex-specific standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) with corresponding 95% confidence limits (CL) of HPV-associated subsequent malignancies (cervical, vaginal, vulvar, penile, anal, tongue, tonsillar, and oropharyngeal). Our study population comprised 64,547 long-term survivors of PAYA cancers diagnosed between 1973 and 2010. Compared with females in the general US population, female PAYA cancer survivors had a 40% relative excess of HPV-associated malignancies overall (SIR = 1.4, 95% CL: 1.2, 1.8). Compared with males in the general US population, male PAYA cancer survivors had a 150% relative excess of HPV-associated malignancies overall (SIR = 2.5, 95% CL: 1.9, 3.4). Our findings suggest an excess of HPV-associated malignancies among PAYA cancer survivors compared with the general US population. We hypothesize that a portion of subsequent malignancies among PAYA cancer survivors may be directly attributable to HPV infection. This hypothesis warrants exploration in future studies.     

Regional disparities in cancer survival in Iran: Insight from a National Surveillance of Cancer Survival in Iran (IRANCANSURV)

Background and objectivesWe aimed to investigate geographical disparity in cancer survival in 9 provincial population-based cancer registries in Iran from 2015 to 2016.Material and methodIn the current study, data from 90,862 adult patients (aged >15 years) diagnosed with cancer were retrieved from 9 population-based cancer registries across Iran. Five-year survival rates were estimated by applying relative survival approaches. We also applied the international cancer survival standard weights for age standardization. Finally, we calculated the excess hazard ratio (EHR) for each province adjusted for age, sex, and cancer sites to estimate the excess hazard ratio of mortality compared to the capital province (Tehran).ResultsThe largest gap in survival was observed in more curable cancer types, including melanoma (41.4%), ovary (32.3%), cervix (35.0%), prostate (26.7%), and rectum (21.4%), while the observed geographical disparity in lethal cancers such as lung, brain, stomach, and pancreas was less than 15%. Compared to Tehran, we found the highest excess hazard of death in Western Azerbaijan (EHR=1.60, 95% CI 1.51, 1.65), Kermanshah (EHR=1.52, 95% CI=1.44, 1.61), and Kerman (EHR=1.46, 95% CI=1.38, 1.53). The hazard ratio of death was almost identical in Isfahan (EHR=1.04, 95% CI=1.03, 1.06) and Tehran provinces.ConclusionProvinces with higher HDI had better survival rates. IRANCANSURV study showed regional disparities in cancer survival in Iran. Cancer patients in provinces with a higher Human Development Index (HDI) had a higher survival rate and lived longer compared to the patients in provinces with medium and low HDI regions.     

Expected life years compared to the general population

For cohorts with long-term follow-up, the number of years lost due to a certain disease yields a measure with a simple and appealing interpretation. Recently, an overview of the methodology used for this goal has been published, and two measures have been proposed. In this work, we consider a third option that may be useful in settings in which the other two are inappropriate. In all three measures, the survival of the given dataset is compared to the expected survival in the general population which is calculated using external mortality tables. We thoroughly analyze the differences between the three measures, their assumptions, interpretation, and the corresponding estimators. The first measure is defined in a competing risk setting and assumes an excess hazard compared to the population, while the other two measures also allow estimation for groups that live better than the general population. In this case, the observed survival of the patients is compared to that in the population. The starting point of this comparison depends on whether the entry into the study is a hazard changing event (e.g., disease diagnosis or the age at which the inclusion criteria were met). Focusing on the newly defined life years difference measure, we study the estimation of the variance and consider the possible challenges (e.g., extrapolation) that occur in practice. We illustrate its use with a dataset of French Olympic athletes. Finally, an efficient R implementation has been developed for all three measures which make this work easily available to subsequent users.     

Mortality of workers at the Sellafield plant of British Nuclear Fuels.

The mortality of all 14,327 people who were known to have been employed at the Sellafield plant of British Nuclear Fuels at any time between the opening of the site in 1947 and 31 December 1975 was studied up to the end of 1983. The vital state of 96% of the workers was traced satisfactorily and 2277 were found to have died, 572 (25%) from cancer. On average the workers suffered a mortality from all causes that was 2% less than that of the general population of England and Wales and 9% less than that of the population of Cumberland (the area in which the plant is sited). Their mortality from cancers of all kinds was 5% less than that of England and Wales and 3% less than that of Cumberland. In the five years after their first employment Sellafield workers had an overall mortality that was 70% of that of England and Wales, probably due to healthier members of the population being selected for employment. Raised death rates from cancers of several specific sites were found, but only for those of ill defined and secondary sites was the excess statistically significant (30 observed, 19.7 expected). For cancers of the liver and gall bladder there was a significant deficit of deaths (four observed, 10.5 expected). Workers in areas of the plant where radiation exposure was likely were issued with dosimeters to measure their external exposure to ionising radiations. Personal dose records were maintained for workers who entered such areas other than infrequently. Workers with personal dose records ("radiation" workers) had lower death rates from all causes combined than other workers but the death rates from cancer in the two groups were similar. Compared with the general population radiation workers had statistically significant deficits of liver and gall bladder cancer, lung cancer, and Hodgkin''s disease. There were excesses of deaths from myeloma (seven observed, 4.2 expected) and prostatic cancer (19 observed, 15.8 expected) but these were not significant and there was no evidence of an excess of leukaemia (10 deaths observed, 12.2 expected) or cancer of the pancreas (15 observed, 17.8 expected). Non-radiation workers had a significant deficit of leukaemia (one death observed, 5.1 expected) and a significant excess of cancers of ill defined and secondary sites (13 deaths observed, 5.8 expected). For no type of cancer was the ratio of observed to expected deaths significantly different between radiation and non-radiation workers.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

Partner status and survival after cancer: A competing risks analysis

ObjectiveThe survival benefits of having a partner for all cancers combined is well recognized, however its prognostic importance for individual cancer types, including competing mortality causes, is less clear. This study was undertaken to quantify the impact of partner status on survival due to cancer-specific and competing mortality causes.MethodsData were obtained from the population-based Queensland Cancer Registry on 176,050 incident cases of ten leading cancers diagnosed in Queensland (Australia) from 1996 to 2012. Flexible parametric competing-risks models were used to estimate cause-specific hazards and cumulative probabilities of death, adjusting for age, stage (breast, colorectal and melanoma only) and stratifying by sex.ResultsBoth unpartnered males and females had higher total cumulative probability of death than their partnered counterparts for each site. For example, the survival disadvantage for unpartnered males ranged from 3% to 30% with higher mortality burden from both the primary cancer and competing mortality causes. The cause-specific age-adjusted hazard ratios were also consistent with patients without a partner having increased mortality risk although the specific effect varied by site, sex and cause of death. For all combined sites, unpartnered males had a 46%, 18% and 44% higher risk of cancer-specific, other cancer and non-cancer mortality respectively with similar patterns for females. The higher mortality risk persisted after adjustment for stage.ConclusionsIt is important to better understand the mechanisms by which having a partner is beneficial following a cancer diagnosis, so that this can inform improvements in cancer management for all people with cancer.     

Second primary malignancies in patients with non-melanoma skin cancer: Results from a cancer registry–based study in Emilia Romagna,north-east Italy

Backgroundprevious research on the risk of subsequent, primary non-cutaneous malignancies among patients with non-melanoma skin cancers (NMSCs) led to conflicting results. We aimed to investigate a possible link between NMSC and second primary malignancies by using the population-based data available in cancer registries.Methodsthis observational study retrospectively assessed the risk of occurrence of both synchronous and methachronous second primary tumours in a cohort of cancer patients whose first diagnosis was NMSC. The cohort came from the network of general cancer registries of the Emilia-Romagna Region, northeast Italy, in the period between 1978 and 2012, and was compared with the general population living in the same area. Two main indexes were used: i) Standardized Incidence Ratio (SIR), calculated as the ratio between the observed and the expected number of second cancers and ii) Excess Absolute Risk (EAR), expressing the absolute excess or deficit of second cancer incidence.Resultsin the period analysed (1978–2012, 72,503,157 person/years, PYs), 89,912 primary NMSC were found in 76,414 patients. Among them, 14,195 developed a second primary cancer in the subsequent 501,763 follow-up PYs. NMSC patients showed an overall SIR of 1.22 (CI 95% 1.20-1,24) and an EAR of 5.11 cases/1000 PYs (CI 95% 4.48–5.74).Conclusionsthe study results showed that NMSC patients had an increase in relative risk and, at least for some tumours, in absolute risk of developing a second cancer when compared with the general population. Genetic, environmental and personal risk factors may influence this finding.     

Breast cancer found at the time of breast reduction.

In a recent study involving 27,500 women who had breast reduction surgery in Ontario, Canada, 17 women who were diagnosed as having breast cancer at the time of their breast reduction surgery were identified. The aims of this study were to (1) describe a population-based series of patients who had breast cancer diagnosed at the time of breast reduction, (2) describe the treatment of these cancers, and (3) compare their survival rate with survival in patients in the general population who had breast cancer. Information about these women, their treatment, and outcome was extracted from hospital records, pathology reports, and reports from regional cancer centers. The chance of finding an invasive breast cancer at the time of breast reduction was 0.06 percent, which is lower than what has been reported previously. Sixty-seven percent of these women were treated with total mastectomy. In the remaining 33 percent, who were treated with partial mastectomy, the entire tumor was removed at the time of breast reduction. Fifty percent of the women were treated with radiation, and 25 percent were treated with chemotherapy or hormonal therapy. Compared with women in the general population of Ontario who have breast cancer, women whose breast cancer is discovered during breast reduction surgery are more likely to be treated with complete mastectomy and less likely to be treated with radiotherapy or chemotherapy. Seventy-one percent of the breast reduction group were axillary node-negative at diagnosis, compared with 58 percent in the general population of women with breast cancer. Survival from breast cancer in women diagnosed at the time of breast reduction (88 percent, 5-year survival) was better than survival from breast cancer in the general population (77 percent). These findings suggest that cancers found in women at the time of breast reduction are less advanced, possibly because they are diagnosed at an earlier stage.     

Socioeconomic status and its relation with breast cancer recurrence and survival in young women in the Netherlands

BackgroundAssociations between socioeconomic status (SES) and breast cancer survival are most pronounced in young patients. We further investigated the relation between SES, subsequent recurrent events and mortality in breast cancer patients < 40 years. Using detailed data on all recurrences that occur between date of diagnosis of the primary tumor and last observation, we provide a unique insight in the prognosis of young breast cancer patients according to SES.MethodsAll women < 40 years diagnosed with primary operated stage I-III breast cancer in 2005 were selected from the nationwide population-based Netherlands Cancer Registry. Data on all recurrences within 10 years from primary tumor diagnosis were collected directly from patient files. Recurrence patterns and absolute risks of recurrence, contralateral breast cancer (CBC) and mortality – accounting for competing risks – were analysed according to SES. Relationships between SES, recurrence patterns and excess mortality were estimated using a multivariable joint model, wherein the association between recurrent events and excess mortality (expected mortality derived from the general population) was included.ResultsWe included 525 patients. The 10-year recurrence risk was lowest in high SES (18.1%), highest in low SES (29.8%). Death and CBC as first events were rare. In high, medium and low SES 13.2%, 15.3% and 19.1% died following a recurrence. Low SES patients had shorter median time intervals between diagnosis, first recurrence and 10-year mortality (2.6 and 2.7 years, respectively) compared to high SES (3.5 and 3.3 years, respectively). In multivariable joint modeling, high SES was significantly related to lower recurrence rates over 10-year follow-up, compared to low SES. A strong association between the recurrent event process and excess mortality was found.ConclusionsHigh SES is associated with lower recurrence risks, less subsequent events and better prognosis after recurrence over 10 years than low SES. Breast cancer risk factors, adjuvant treatment adherence and treatment of recurrence may possibly play a role in this association.     

Time-to-cure and cure proportion in solid cancers in France. A population based study

BackgroundIn cancer care, the cure proportion (P) and time-to-cure (TTC) are important indicators for practitioners, patients, and healthcare policy makers. The recent definition of TTC as the time at which the probability of belonging to the cured group reaches 95% was used for the first time.MethodsThe data stem from the common database of French cancer registries including 335,358 solid tumours diagnosed between 1995 and 2009 at 27 sites. P and TTC were estimated through a flexible parametric net survival cure model for each cancer site, sex, and age at diagnosis with acceptable assumption of cure (excess mortality rate ≤0.05).ResultsTTC was ≤5 years and P was >80% for skin melanoma and thyroid and testis cancers. It was 0 for testis cancer in men <55 and for thyroid cancer in men <45 and women <65. TTC was between 5 and 10 years for all digestive cancers except small intestine and all gynaecologic cancers except breast. It was ≥10 years in prostate, breast, and urinary tract. The range of P according to age and sex was 37–79% for urinary tract 72–88% for prostate and breast, 4–16% for pancreatic and 47–62% for colorectal cancer.ConclusionTime-to-cure was estimated for the first time from a large national database and individual probabilities of cure. It was 0 in the younger patients with testis or thyroid cancer and <12 years in most cancer sites. These results should help improve access to credit and insurance for patients still alive past the estimated TTCs.     

Generalized parametric cure models for relative survival

Cure models are used in time-to-event analysis when not all individuals are expected to experience the event of interest, or when the survival of the considered individuals reaches the same level as the general population. These scenarios correspond to a plateau in the survival and relative survival function, respectively. The main parameters of interest in cure models are the proportion of individuals who are cured, termed the cure proportion, and the survival function of the uncured individuals. Although numerous cure models have been proposed in the statistical literature, there is no consensus on how to formulate these. We introduce a general parametric formulation of mixture cure models and a new class of cure models, termed latent cure models, together with a general estimation framework and software, which enable fitting of a wide range of different models. Through simulations, we assess the statistical properties of the models with respect to the cure proportion and the survival of the uncured individuals. Finally, we illustrate the models using survival data on colon cancer, which typically display a plateau in the relative survival. As demonstrated in the simulations, mixture cure models which are not guaranteed to be constant after a finite time point, tend to produce accurate estimates of the cure proportion and the survival of the uncured. However, these models are very unstable in certain cases due to identifiability issues, whereas LC models generally provide stable results at the price of more biased estimates.     

Occupational disparities in survival from common cancers in Japan: Analysis of Kanagawa cancer registry

BackgroundLittle is known about occupational disparities in survival for common cancer sites in Japan.MethodsUsing data from a population-based cancer registry, we identified 32,870 cancer patients diagnosed during 1992–2011. We followed the patients for 5 years (median follow-up time 5.0 years). For each individual, we classified their longest-held occupation into 5 classes (upper non-manual, lower non-manual, manual, farmer, and others) following the Erikson-Goldthorpe-Portocarero scheme. Poisson regression models were used to estimate overall and site-specific mortality rate ratios (MRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for each occupational class, adjusted for sex, age, and diagnosis year. Upper non-manual workers served as the reference group. Additionally, using a binary categorization of occupations (manual workers versus non-manual workers), a causal mediation analysis with 4-way decomposition was performed to investigate the potential mediation of the association between occupation and overall mortality by cancer stage.ResultsOverall prognosis was good in this population (5-year overall survival was 81.7%). Compared with upper non-manual workers, both overall and cancer-specific mortality was higher in lower non-manual workers (MRR=1.14, 95% CI 1.05–1.24) and manual workers (MRR=1.40, 95% CI 1.29–1.53). After adjusting for the mediating influence of prognostic factors (stage and treatment), the observed occupational differences were attenuated but remained significant in manual workers: MRR = 1.23 (95% CI 1.08–1.39). Observed occupational disparities tended to be attributable to common cancers, i.e., stomach and lung among men and female breast cancer. Additionally, manual workers had 1.25 times higher odds for advanced stage. In the mediation analysis, the overall proportion explained by mediating effect of cancer stage was 29% (4% due to mediated interaction and 25% due to pure indirect effect).ConclusionWe documented occupational disparities in survival from commonly-occurring cancers in Japan. Occupational differences in cancer stage may explain one-third of the survival disparities.     

Net survival in recurrence-free colon cancer patients

PurposeConditional net survival in recurrence-free patients (CNS-RF) provides relevant clinical information and has never been assessed yet in a non-selected colon cancer population. We aimed to estimate conditional 5-year net survival in recurrence-free patients with colon cancer in the population-based Digestive Cancer Registry of Burgundy (France).MethodsCNS-RF was estimated in the 3736 patients resected for cure for primary colon cancer between 1976 and 2006, using a flexible parametric model of net survival for every additional year survived at diagnosis and from 1 to 5 years thereafter.ResultsThe net probability of surviving 5 more years increased from 72% at diagnosis to 92% for recurrence-free patients who survived 5 years after diagnosis. CNS-RF was over 90% 3 years after diagnosis in patients aged 75 and below. CNS-RF was over 95% in patients diagnosed after 2000 who were recurrence-free 3, 4 or 5 years after diagnosis. CNS-RF was similar between patients with stage I and II disease from 2 years after diagnosis and patients with stage III disease from 5 years after diagnosis. The initial differences in net survival related to gross features, clinical presentation, number of harvested nodes in stage II, and number of involved nodes in stage III disappeared after 2 years.ConclusionsCNS-RF is a relevant measure of prognosis in patients who have already achieved a period of remission. Providing an updated estimation of prognosis in the years following diagnosis may improve the survivors’ quality of life and access to credit or insurance.     

Impact of geographic area level on measuring socioeconomic disparities in cancer survival in New South Wales,Australia: A period analysis

BackgroundArea-based socioeconomic measures are widely used in health research. In theory, the larger the area used the more individual misclassification is introduced, thus biasing the association between such area level measures and health outcomes. In this study, we examined the socioeconomic disparities in cancer survival using two geographic area-based measures to see if the size of the area matters.MethodsWe used population-based cancer registry data for patients diagnosed with one of 10 major cancers in New South Wales (NSW), Australia during 2004–2008. Patients were assigned index measures of socioeconomic status (SES) based on two area-level units, census Collection District (CD) and Local Government Area (LGA) of their address at diagnosis. Five-year relative survival was estimated using the period approach for patients alive during 2004–2008, for each socioeconomic quintile at each area-level for each cancer. Poisson-regression modelling was used to adjust for socioeconomic quintile, sex, age-group at diagnosis and disease stage at diagnosis. The relative excess risk of death (RER) by socioeconomic quintile derived from this modelling was compared between area-units.ResultsWe found extensive disagreement in SES classification between CD and LGA levels across all socioeconomic quintiles, particularly for more disadvantaged groups. In general, more disadvantaged patients had significantly lower survival than the least disadvantaged group for both CD and LGA classifications. The socioeconomic survival disparities detected by CD classification were larger than those detected by LGA. Adjusted RER estimates by SES were similar for most cancers when measured at both area levels.ConclusionsWe found that classifying patient SES by the widely used Australian geographic unit LGA results in underestimation of survival disparities for several cancers compared to when SES is classified at the geographically smaller CD level. Despite this, our RER of death estimates derived from these survival estimates were generally similar for both CD and LGA level analyses, suggesting that LGAs remain a valuable spatial unit for use in Australian health and social research, though the potential for misclassification must be considered when interpreting research. While data confidentiality concerns increase with the level of geographical precision, the use of smaller area-level health and census data in the future, with appropriate allowance for confidentiality