Analysis of nest occupancy and nest reproduction in two sympatric raptors: common buzzard Buteo buteo and goshawk Accipiter gentilis

Nest site selection can have important fitness consequences in birds. I analysed the habitat characteristics of 392 nests of two sympatric raptor species (common buzzard Buteo buteo and goshawk Accipiter gentilis ) in Germany and their relation to nest occupation rate and nest reproductive success. For common buzzard, multivariate models explained only small proportions of the variance in nest occupation rate and nest reproductive success (13–19%). Important variables related to nest occupation rate were human disturbances, intra- and interspecific neighbour density, the amount of forested area and nest tree crown cover. Variables related to nest site reproductive success also included human disturbance, intra- and interspecific neighbour density and nest tree crown cover as well as nest distance to the nearest forest edge. In contrast, models for the goshawk explained a much higher proportion of the variation in nest occupation rate and nest reproductive success (41–43%). Important variables related to nest occupation rate were the remoteness of the nest site and direct human disturbance. Variables related to nest site reproductive success were remoteness of the nest site and good hunting habitat. Goshawks seem to be more sensitive to human disturbance than buzzards. A multiple discriminant analysis showed that nest site characteristics substantially overlapped between the species and there is a good evidence that competition for optimal nest sites occurs. Thus, buzzards might be constrained by the dominant goshawk in their nest site selection.     

Disturbance-dependent Yellow-legged Gull (Larus michahellis) predation on Larid chicks decreases with chick age

Predation is one of the key factors shaping the dynamics of animal populations. In birds, nest loss due to predation can be a significant cause of low reproductive success. Ground-nesting birds are among the bird groups most susceptible to predation, mainly because their nests are easily accessible to a broad suite of potential predators. For these birds, anthropogenic disturbances can generate changes in nest predation risk by altering their antipredator behaviour and also by altering the behaviour of the predator species, i.e. the predator becoming much more aware of predation opportunities due to frequent disturbances and/or motivated to repeat predation attempts when some are successful. To date, most previous studies investigating this have focused on a single effect, either predation or disturbance, on chick survival. It remains unknown how the risk of predation with and without disturbance varies with chick age. In this study, we used behavioural observations to assess how the interaction between predators and disturbance affects predation risk in chicks and how this interacts with chick age. Specifically, we investigated the effect of disturbance caused by humans and stray dogs on the predation of Slender-billed Gull Chroicocephalus genei chicks by Yellow-legged Gulls Larus michahellis, and whether this depended on the age of the chicks. Our results revealed that disturbance had a significant positive effect on predation measures of Slender-billed Gull chicks by Yellow-legged Gulls, but that this effect was mediated both by disturbance type and the age of chicks. Stray dogs entering the colony had a stronger disturbance effect on chicks than passing humans, increasing predation risk by Yellow-legged Gulls. Our results also showed that chick age interacts with disturbance type to determine the predation risk. This is probably mediated by chicks' capacity to escape predation by gathering in a single large crèche that runs into the water when disturbed. To preserve Slender-billed Gull colonies in one of its few remaining breeding sites in Tunisia, and as gulls tend to react even when the disturbance occurs relatively far from the colonies, it is crucial to (1) restrict human access to dikes and islets where large colonies breed and (2) construct artificial islets attractive to gulls and inaccessible to stray dogs.     

Evolution of passerine incubation behavior: influence of food, temperature, and nest predation

Abstract.— Incubation behavior is one component of reproductive effort and thus influences the evolution of life-history strategies. We examined the relative importance of body mass, frequency of mate feeding, food, nest predation, and ambient temperature to explain interspecific variation in incubation behavior (nest attentiveness, on- and off-bout durations, and nest trips per hour) using comparative analyses for North American passerines in which only females incubate. Body mass and frequency of mate feeding explained little variation in incubation behavior. We were also unable to detect any influence of food; diet and foraging strategy explained little interspecific variation in incubation behavior. However, the typical temperature encountered during reproduction explained significant variation in incubation behavior: Species breeding in colder environments take shorter bouts off the nest, which prevents eggs from cooling to temperatures below the physiological zero temperature. These species must compensate for shorter off-bouts by taking more of them (thus shorter on-bouts) to obtain needed energy for incubation. Nest predation also explains significant variation in incubation behavior among passerines: Species that endure high nest predation have evolved an incubation strategy (long on- and off-bouts) that minimizes activity that could attract predators. Nest substrate explained additional variation in incubation behavior (cavity-nesting birds have shorter on-bouts and make more frequent nest trips), presumably because nest predation and/or temperature varies among nest substrates. Thus, nest predation can influence reproductive effort in a way previously not demonstrated–by placing a constraint on parental activity at the nest. Incubating birds face an ecological cost associated with reproductive effort (predation of entire brood) that should be considered in future attempts to explain avian life-history evolution.     

Nest predation is little affected by parental behaviour and nest site in two African Sylvia warblers

Parental behaviour and nest site are supposed to affect nest predation in birds. Few nest visits and high nest attentiveness are assumed to lead to low predation rates. Poorly concealed nests are thought to be more likely to be preyed upon than well concealed nests. Studies on the relationship between parental behaviour, nest site, and nest predation are rare and none have, so far, been conducted in the Afrotropics. We studied the effect of nest site, nest visitation rate, and nest attentiveness on the nest predation rate of the two tropical warblers Sylvia boehmi and Sylvia lugens in Kenya. Parental behaviour and predation on nests of 13 breeding pairs of both species were observed daily in two consecutive breeding seasons. In both species, parental activity at the nest was low [0.9 trips to the nest in 30 min during incubation, maximum 4.6 (S. boehmi) and 5.8 (S. lugens) trips to the nest in the nestling stage]. Predation rates in both species were high (Mayfield nest success 19.4 and 33.2%). Our analysis revealed only weak evidence for an effect of nest site, nest visitation rate, and nest attentiveness on the predation rate. It is suggested that smaller clutches of tropical in comparison to northern temperate birds result from lower feeding rates in tropical ecosystems with high predation rates (Skutchs hypothesis). The underlying mechanism could not be proven in this study.     

An ‘ecological trap’ for yellow warbler nest microhabitat selection

Contrary to assumptions of habitat selection theory, field studies frequently detect ‘ecological traps’, where animals prefer habitats conferring lower fitness than available alternatives. Evidence for traps includes cases where birds prefer breeding habitats associated with relatively high nest predation rates despite the importance of nest survival to avian fitness. Because birds select breeding habitat at multiple spatial scales, the processes underlying traps for birds are likely scale‐dependent. We studied a potential ecological trap for a population of yellow warblers Dendroica petechia while paying specific attention to spatial scale. We quantified nest microhabitat preference by comparing nest‐ versus random‐site microhabitat structure and related preferred microhabitat features with nest survival. Over a nine‐year study period and three study sites, we found a consistently negative relationship between preferred microhabitat patches and nest survival rates. Data from experimental nests described a similar relationship, corroborating the apparent positive relationship between preferred microhabitat and nest predation. As do other songbirds, yellow warblers select breeding habitat in at least two steps at two spatial scales; (1) they select territories at a coarser spatial scale and (2) nest microhabitats at a finer scale from within individual territories. By comparing nest versus random sites within territories, we showed that maladaptive nest microhabitat preferences arose during within‐territory nest site selection (step 2). Furthermore, nest predation rates varied at a fine enough scale to provide individual yellow warblers with lower‐predation alternatives to preferred microhabitats. Given these results, tradeoffs between nest survival and other fitness components are unlikely since fitness components other than nest survival are probably more relevant to territory‐scale habitat selection. Instead, exchanges of individuals among populations facing different predation regimes, the recent proliferation of the parasitic brown‐headed cowbird Molothrus ater, and/or anthropogenic changes to riparian vegetation structure are more likely explanations.     

Nesting Success in Crimson Finches: Chance or Choice?

In avian systems, nest predation is one of the most significant influences on reproductive success. Selection for mechanisms and behaviours to minimise predation rates should be favoured. To avoid predation, breeding birds can often deter predators through active nest defence or by modifying behaviours around the nest (e.g. reducing feeding rates and vocalisations). Birds might also benefit from concealing nests or placing them in inaccessible locations. The relative importance of these strategies (behaviour vs. site selection) can be difficult to disentangle and may differ according to life history. Tropical birds are thought to experience higher rates of predation than temperate birds and invest less energy in nest defence. We monitored a population of crimson finches (Neochmia phaeton), in the Australian tropics, over two breeding seasons. We found no relationship between adult nest defence behaviour (towards a model reptile predator) and the likelihood of nest success. However, nest success was strongly related to the visibility of the nest and the structure of the vegetation. We found no evidence that adult nest building decisions were influenced by predation risk; individuals that re‐nested after a predation event did not build their nest in a more concealed location. Therefore, predator avoidance, and hence nest success, appears to be largely due to chance rather than due to the behaviour of the birds or their choice of nesting sites. To escape high predation pressures, multiple nesting attempts both within and between seasons may be necessary to increase reproductive success. Alternatively, birds may be limited in their nest‐site options; that is, high‐quality individuals dominate quality nest sites.     

Coping with Shifting Nest Predation Refuges by European Reed Warblers Acrocephalus scirpaceus

Predation, the most important source of nest mortality in altricial birds, has been a subject of numerous studies during past decades. However, the temporal dynamics between changing predation pressures and parental responses remain poorly understood. We analysed characteristics of 524 nests of European reed warblers monitored during six consecutive breeding seasons in the same area, and found some support for the shifting nest predation refuge hypothesis. Nest site characteristics were correlated with nest fate, but a nest with the same nest-site attributes could be relatively safe in one season and vulnerable to predation in another. Thus nest predation refuges were ephemeral and there was no between-season consistency in nest predation patterns. Reed warblers that lost their first nests in a given season did not disperse farther for the subsequent reproductive attempt, compared to successful individuals, but they introduced more changes to their second nest sites. In subsequent nests, predation risk remained constant for birds that changed nest-site characteristics, but increased for those that did not. At the between-season temporal scale, individual birds did not perform better with age in terms of reducing nest predation risk. We conclude that the experience acquired in previous years may not be useful, given that nest predation refuges are not stable.     

How avian nest site selection responds to predation risk: testing an 'adaptive peak hypothesis'

1. Nest predation limits avian fitness, so birds should favour nest sites that minimize predation risk. Nevertheless, preferred nest microhabitat features are often uncorrelated with apparent variation in predation rates. 2. This lack of congruence between theory-based expectation and empirical data may arise when birds already occupy 'adaptive peaks'. If birds nest exclusively in low-predation microhabitats, microhabitat and nest predation may no longer be correlated even though predation ultimately shaped microhabitat selection. 3. This 'adaptive peak hypothesis' was tested for a population of Yellow Warblers (Dendroica petechia) focusing on two nest microhabitat features: concealment and height. Experimental nests measured relative predation risk both within and outside the microhabitat range typically occupied by natural nests to examine whether nest site choices made by birds restricted our ability to detect microhabitat effects on predation. 4. Within the natural range (30-80% concealment, >75 cm height), microhabitat-predation relationships were weak and inconsistent, and similar for experimental and natural nests. Over an extended range, however, experimental predation rates were elevated in exposed sites (<30% concealed), indicating a concealment-related 'adaptive plateau'. 5. Clay egg bite data revealed a concealment effect on avian predators, and the abundance of one avian predator group correlated with nest concealment among years, suggesting these predators may cue birds to modulate nest concealment choices. 6. This study demonstrates how avian responses to predation pressure can obscure the adaptive significance of nest site selection, so predation influences may be more important than apparent from published data.     

Predation on artificial bird nests in chaparral fragments

Summary The predation rate of artificial bird nests was measured in disturbed chaparral habitat fragments and at an unfragmented site in coastal San Diego County, California USA. Local extinctions of chaparral birds has been previously shown to occur in these fragments. The predation rate was highest at the unfragmented site. Among fragments, predation was higher at moderately disturbed than at highly disturbed sites. These results suggest that nest predator species diversity or density is reduced in disturbed chaparral fragments. Nest predation is probably not the most important cause of the observed loss of chaparral breeding bird diversity in these fragments.     

Adaptive plasticity in nest-site selection in response to changing predation risk

Birds selecting a nest site have to find the best compromise between the risk of encountering predation, the availability of food near to the nest and microclimatic requirements. As the optimal solution of this problem will vary with changes in predator abundance, we ask whether birds are capable of assessing such changes and of adjusting their nest-site choice accordingly. The reproductive success of dusky warblers Phylloscopus fuscatus , breeding in a mosaic of bushland and tundra habitat in the Russian Far East, varied greatly depending on the abundance of a nest predator, the Siberian chipmunk Tamias sibiricus . Using artificial nests we analysed which strategies dusky warblers should follow to avoid nest predation by chipmunks. We then compared the nest sites which dusky warblers actually had chosen in years with very high chipmunk densities (1998 and 1999) with those chosen in 1997, when chipmunks were almost absent from the study area. We found that safe nest-sites were preferred over those offering other advantages (microclimate, proximity to food) when the risk of predation was high, and we could not detect any confounding factor that might alternatively have caused these striking between-year differences. Our study suggests that even a short-lived passerine may be capable of choosing its nest site according to the actual predation risk. We show that such behavioural plasticity can lead to a paradoxical situation where better-protected nest-sites (selected in years and areas with high risk), on average, suffer greater predation than sites offering low safety. Thus, behavioural plasticity, if undetected, may result in serious misinterpretation of nest-predation patterns. A review of the literature suggests that adaptive plasticity in nest placement may be more widespread than is currently recognized.     

Buildings promote higher incubation temperatures and reduce nest attentiveness in a Neotropical thrush

Incubation is an energetically costly parental task of breeding birds. Incubating parents respond to environmental variation and nest‐site features to adjust the balance between the time spent incubating (i.e. nest attentiveness) and foraging to supply their own needs. Non‐natural nesting substrates such as human buildings impose new environmental contexts that may affect time allocation of incubating birds but this topic remains little studied. Here, we tested whether nesting substrate type (buildings vs. trees) affects the temperature inside the incubation chamber (hereafter ‘nest temperature’) in the Pale‐breasted Thrush Turdus leucomelas, either during ‘day’ (with incubation recesses) or ‘night’ periods (representing uninterrupted female presence at the nest). We also tested whether nesting substrate type affects the incubation time budget using air temperature and the day of the incubation cycle as covariates. Nest temperature, when controlled for microhabitat temperature, was higher at night and in nests in buildings but did not differ between daytime and night for nests in buildings, indicating that buildings partially compensate for incubation recesses by females with regard to nest temperature stability. Females from nests placed in buildings exhibited lower nest attentiveness (the overall percentage of time spent incubating) and had longer bouts off the nest. Higher air temperatures were significantly correlated with shorter bouts on the nest and longer bouts off the nest, but without affecting nest attentiveness. We suggest that the longer bouts off the nest taken by females of nests in buildings is a consequence of higher nest temperatures promoted by man‐made structures around these nests. Use of buildings as nesting substrate may therefore increase parental fitness due to a relaxed incubation budget, and potentially drive the evolution of incubation behaviour in certain urban bird populations.     

Parental care of a cowbird host: caught between the costs of egg-removal and nest predation

Avian brood parasites reduce host fitness through the addition of parasitic eggs and the removal of host eggs. Both parasitic egg-addition and host egg-removal may be important sources of selection on host behaviour, creating fitness trade-offs with selection imposed by nest predation. However, the relative costs hosts suffer from egg-addition and host egg-removal and the responses to these costs are largely unstudied. Through experimental manipulations and observations, we demonstrate that increased nest attentiveness by female yellow warblers (Dendroica petechia) reduces the cost of brood parasitism by reducing egg-removal by brown-headed cowbirds (Molothrus ater). However, female attentiveness does not reduce the addition of parasitic eggs. Experimentally parasitized females respond to the threat of egg-removal by increasing nest attentiveness. Increased attentiveness, however, reduces time for females to gather food and requires males to visit the nest more often to feed incubating females. This increased activity in turn increases the risk of nest predation. Thus, brood parasitism (specifically egg-removal) and nest predation produce conflicting selection on incubation strategies, as parasitized hosts are caught between the costs of egg-removal by brood parasites, and the costs of increased nest predation if the female spends more time on the nest to reduce egg-removal.     

Incubation recess behaviors influence nest survival of Wild Turkeys

In ground nesting upland birds, reproductive activities contribute to elevated predation risk, so females presumably use multiple strategies to ensure nest success. Identification of drivers reducing predation risk has primarily focused on evaluating vegetative conditions at nest sites, but behavioral decisions manifested through movements during incubation may be additional drivers of nest survival. However, our understanding of how movements during incubation impact nest survival is limited for most ground nesting birds. Using GPS data collected from female Eastern Wild Turkeys (n = 206), we evaluated nest survival as it relates to movement behaviors during incubation, including recess frequency, distance traveled during recesses, and habitat selection during recess movements. We identified 9,361 movements off nests and 6,529 recess events based on approximately 62,065 hr of incubation data, and estimated mean nest attentiveness of 84.0%. The numbers of recesses taken daily were variable across females (range: 1?7). Nest survival modeling indicated that increased cumulative distance moved during recesses each day was the primary driver of positive daily nest survival. Our results suggest behavioral decisions are influencing trade‐offs between nest survival and adult female survival during incubation to reduce predation risk, specifically through adjustments to distances traveled during recesses.     

Can cat predation help competitors coexist in seabird communities?

On oceanic islands, nest site availability can be an important factor regulating seabird population dynamics. The potential for birds to secure a nest to reproduce can be an important component of their life histories. The dates at which different seabird species arrive at colonies to breed will have important consequences for their relative chances of success. Early arrival on the island allows birds to obtain nests more easily and have higher reproductive success. However, the presence of an introduced predator may reverse this situation. For instance, in the sub-Antarctic Kerguelen archipelago, early arriving birds suffer heavy predation from introduced cats. Cats progressively switch from seabirds to rabbits, since the local rabbit population starts to peak after early arriving seabird species have already returned to the colony. When late-arriving birds arrive, cat predation pressure on seabirds is thus weaker. In this paper, we investigate the assumption that the advantage of early nest mnopolization conferred to early arriving birds may be counterbalanced by the cost resulting from predation. We develop a mathematical model representing a simplified situation in which two insular seabird species differ only in their arrival date at the colony site and compete for nesting sites. We conclude that predation may ensure the coexistence of the two bird species or favor the late-arriving species, but only when seasonal variations in predation pressure are large. Interestingly, we conclude that arriving early is only favorable until a given level where high reproductive success no longer compensates for the long exposure to strong predation pressure. Our work suggests that predation can help to maintain the balance between species of different phenologies.     

Predation and infanticide influence ideal free choice by a parrot occupying heterogeneous tropical habitats

The ideal free distribution (IFD) predicts that organisms will disperse to sites that maximize their fitness based on availability of resources. Habitat heterogeneity underlies resource variation and influences spatial variation in demography and the distribution of populations. We relate nest site productivity at multiple scales measured over a decade to habitat quality in a box-nesting population of Forpus passerinus (green-rumped parrotlets) in Venezuela to examine critical IFD assumptions. Variation in reproductive success at the local population and neighborhood scales had a much larger influence on productivity (fledglings per nest box per year) than nest site or female identity. Habitat features were reliable cues of nest site quality. Nest sites with less vegetative cover produced greater numbers of fledglings than sites with more cover. However, there was also a competitive cost to nesting in high-quality, low-vegetative cover nest boxes, as these sites experienced the most infanticide events. In the lowland local population, water depth and cover surrounding nest sites were related with F. passerinus productivity. Low vegetative cover and deeper water were associated with lower predation rates, suggesting that predation could be a primary factor driving habitat selection patterns. Parrotlets also demonstrated directional dispersal. Pairs that changed nest sites were more likely to disperse from poor-quality nest sites to high-quality nest sites rather than vice versa, and juveniles were more likely to disperse to, or remain in, the more productive of the two local populations. Parrotlets exhibited three characteristics fundamental to the IFD: habitat heterogeneity within and between local populations, reliable habitat cues to productivity, and active dispersal to sites of higher fitness.     

Forest vegetation structure has more influence on predation risk of artificial ground nests than human activities

As a major process affecting the reproductive success of birds, nest predation influences population density and dynamics and forces species to adapt to ecological and evolutionary time scales. The disentangling of potential natural and anthropogenic drivers of nest predation is crucial for the conservation of species. Thus, we investigated the effects of elevation, egg characteristics, vegetation structure and human activities on daily nest predation rates of artificial ground nests by baiting 700 artificial nests with quail eggs along an elevational gradient of about 1100 m. After 25 days, we found an overall daily nest predation rate of 0.045. Our generalized linear mixed model revealed increasing daily predation rates with increasing forest management, no impact of recreational activities, and lower daily predation rates in the vicinity of buildings. Furthermore, daily predation rates declined with increasing density of near-ground vegetation and increased with increasing tree cover. Finally, we found no influence of elevation, matching of egg and ground colouration, and dead wood on daily nest predation rates. Our results revealed that the risk of nest predation depends more on vegetation structure than on current levels of recreational activities. Moreover, the negative relation of nest predation risk and near-ground vegetation indicates that the changing forest structure after natural disturbances (e.g. wind throw or bark beetle infestation), which is tolerated within the benign neglect strategy applied by the authorities of protected areas, decreases the predation risk, whereas salvage logging increases this risk.     

Birds nesting survival in disturbed and protected Neotropical savannas

Fragmentation and other habitat disturbances are long known to negatively affect birds, in large part by decreasing nest success due to high nest predation rates. The factors, however, that cause this decrease in nest success are still poorly understood and may vary among regions or species. Here, we show that nest survival is also lower in a disturbed landscape versus a protected cerrado (savanna-like) Neotropical landscape. Also, we tested the importance of garbage in the nest, brood parasitism, microhabitat and bird family in nest survival, controlling for temporal effects. We monitored 144 birds’ nests in a disturbed landscape and 150 nests in a natural reserve of cerrado vegetation in central Brazil, between September and December 2006. We used Program MARK to estimate nest survival probabilities and evaluate the effect of covariates in nest success in the disturbed area. Nest daily survival rate (DSR) was higher in the reserve (survival probability = 29.4%) than in the disturbed landscape (survival probability = 16.6%). Nest daily survival rate (DSR) was smaller in nests with garbage (survival probability = 9.3%) than in nests without garbage (survival probability = 19.5%) in the disturbed landscape. Effects of habitat disturbance on nest survival differed among bird families, with finches and tanagers being more affected mostly due to high nest predation rates. Conservation and management of birds in disturbed landscapes should include actions to decrease nest predation. In poor rural or suburban areas in developing countries, such as Brazil, actions like better garbage treatment may help conserve birds in disturbed landscapes.     

Flexible nest-site selection under anthropogenic habitat change in an Afrotropical understorey insectivore

Human activities impact upon natural habitats used by birds for breeding and foraging, and lead to changes in the composition and spatial distribution of predator communities, mainly through loss, fragmentation and disturbance of formerly pristine habitat. Yet possible fitness consequences of such changes through impacts on bird nest-site selection remain poorly known. Here we study nest-site selection and reproductive success of Placid Greenbuls Phyllastrephus placidus in the Taita Hills, southeast Kenya. We show that habitat features associated with nest-site selection by this insectivorous, open-cup-nesting bird species vary among forest fragments that are exposed to different levels of habitat disturbance. Such differences in sites selected for breeding result from a plastic response to fragment-specific conditions or may be driven by fragment-specific variation in the distribution and availability of certain habitat features. Given the overall high nest predation rates in our study area, we expected variation in nest-site selection to correlate with reproductive success and nestling condition, but detected no such relationship. Because predator density and nest predation rates may vary strongly in space and time, a better understanding of spatio-temporal variation in predator communities is needed to assess the possible adaptive value of nest-site selection strategies for reducing the high predation rates that are typical for this and many other open-cup-nesting tropical passerines.     

Consequences of information use in breeding habitat selection on the evolution of settlement time

The role of temporal changes and spatial variability in predation risk and prey's means of mitigating such risks is poorly understood in the context of potential threats of global climate change for migratory birds. Yet nest predation, for example, represents a primary source of reproductive mortality in birds. To assess risk birds must spend time prospecting potential breeding sites for cues or signals of predator presence. However, competition for breeding sites with advantage to prior residency poses an evolutionary dilemma as individuals also benefit from early settling. We develop a model to examine adaptive prospecting time for predator cues on breeding grounds characterized by spatial heterogeneity in nest predation risk. We study how populations respond to environmental change represented by variation in habitat specific levels of nest predation, habitat composition, population vital rates, and availability of information (via prospecting) in the form of acoustic predator cues. We identify two mechanisms that regulate and buffer impacts of environmental change on populations. First, the adaptive response to lower population abundance under deteriorating environmental conditions is to increase prospecting time, which in turn increases individuals nest success to counteract population declines. This occurs because reduced competition for sites decreases the benefit of early settlement. Second, per capita success in site choice increases during population declines owing to reduced competition that increases the availability of good sites. We also show that the increased benefit to settling early when competition increases can lead to the paradoxical result that with greater spatial heterogeneity, less effort is placed on discerning good and bad sites. Our analysis thus contributes several novel results by which nest predation, settlement phenology, prospecting time and information gathering can influence species capacity to adapt to changing environments.     

Long‐term and large‐scale analyses of nest predation patterns in Australian songbirds and a global comparison of nest predation rates

Juvenile mortality is one of crucial drivers of life‐history evolution, and predation is the main cause of nest loss in birds. Thus, understanding how nest predation and failure vary in nature is important for understanding life history evolution and, moreover, for effective conservation. We used published data and unpublished records to study factors influencing nest predation and total failure in 138 populations of 90 species of Australian songbirds. Daily predation (average 2.0% d^?1) and failure rates (2.9%) increased from temperate regions to the tropics, over the last four decades, and were lowest in temperate south‐western Australia. Predation and failure were higher in smaller species, and failure rates were lower in species with closed nests than in species with open nests. There was no effect of nest height or nest site (ground, shrub, canopy) or social organization on nest predation or failure rates. Nest predation caused on average 72% of total nest failure, similar to other tropical, subtropical, and temperate areas. Our study spanning from the tropics to temperate regions and using > 10 000 nests confirmed that tropical birds faced higher nest failure rates. We identified an increase in nest depredation rates in the last four decades in Australia, suggesting that a large‐scale ecological phenomenon must be responsible. It may include increases in predator abundances and/or ranges, possibly connected with human‐caused habitat change. A global comparison of nest failure rates confirmed that predation is the main source of nest mortality in songbirds worldwide. We discuss implications of our results for the evolution of reproductive strategies and for the conservation of Australian birds.