Self‐organization of background habitat determines the nature of population spatial structure

A substantial literature treats the dynamics of populations in response to spatial patterning of underlying habitats, the most common formulations being source/sink populations and metapopulations living in a patchwork of habitats. A separate and growing literature on the self‐organization of spatial pattern focuses on how local interactions give rise to regional patterns that can be described with scale‐free distributions. Motivated by the potential ubiquity of the coupling of these processes (spatial self organization and the dynamics of organisms in spatially structured habitats), we link these two lines of thought into a theory of populations in fragmented habitats. Using a combined analytical and computational approach, we show that self organization can generate a background into which an independent population fits, and that the scale‐free nature of such habitat creates conditions that influence both the persistence versus extinction properties of the embedded population and where it lies on the continuum between source/sink populations and metapopulations. Both the analytical framework and the computer simulations demonstrate the potential for populations to persist on either end of the metapopulation–source/sink continuum while failing to persist under intermediate conditions. These results provide a new perspective on ecological theory related to habitat fragmentation and population persistence, suggesting that under some conditions intermediate states between these two extremes may maximize risk of extinction of the population. These implications could be of particular importance for managing self‐organized systems of conservation concern.     

Habitat‐specific demography,source‐sink dynamics,and the niche of a common shrub in a heterogeneous and fluctuating environment

The occurrence of a species in habitats of varying quality connected through migration can only be understood by detailed investigation of itsdemography. In the Chihuahuan Desert, the common shrub Flourensia cernua is found in both productive and unproductive areas. In the former, both growing and senescent populations are regularly found, while in the latter a low density scattered population persists indefinitely. While precipitation (and its annual stochastic variation) is the same in both habitats, their geomorphological differences produce a sharp difference in the availability of the limiting resource, water. This produces different population dynamics in F. cernua, but also radically different plant communities. Counterintuitively, the low‐resource habitat (LR) supports a scattered, slightly increasing or stable population that coexists with its neighbors and acts as exporter of seeds (source population). In contrast, the high‐resource habitat (HR) allows sporadic recruitment of locally dense patches that tend towards extinction (sink population). The latter is accounted for by the increasing dominance of the grass Pleuraphys mutica. The different dynamics and regulatory mechanisms in each habitat allow the species to occupy a wider distribution than it would have in their absence. The higher abundance of F. cernua in the sink habitat, together with its consequences on community composition and dynamics, questions the idea proposed in the literature that a sink population lives outside its fundamental niche. The study provides support to the notion that the ecological niche of a species cannot be completely characterized by its requirements (e.g. as they relate to physiology), but must also include the complex demographic responses to a spatially and temporally variable environment, which may often include substandard conditions. For the niche concept to retain its usefulness, it must incorporate the demographic response of populations to spatially and temporallyvariable resource supply.     

Temporal variation can facilitate niche evolution in harsh sink environments

We examine the impact of temporal variation on adaptive evolution in "sink" environments, where a species encounters conditions outside its niche. Sink populations persist because of recurrent immigration from sources. Prior studies have highlighted the importance of demographic constraints on adaptive evolution in sinks and revealed that adaptation is less likely in harsher sinks. We examine two complementary models of population and evolutionary dynamics in sinks: a continuous-state quantitative-genetics model and an individual-based model. In the former, genetic variance is fixed; in the latter, genetic variance varies because of mutation, drift, and sampling. In both models, a population in a constant harsh sink environment can exist in alternative states: local maladaptation (phenotype comparable to immigrants from the source) or adaptation (phenotype near the local optimum). Temporal variation permits transitions between these states. We show that moderate amounts of temporal variation can facilitate adaptive evolution in sinks, permitting niche evolution, particularly for slow or autocorrelated variation. Such patterns of temporal variation may particularly pertain to sinks caused by biotic interactions (e.g., predation). Our results are relevant to the evolutionary dynamics of species' ranges, the fate of exotic invasive species, and the evolutionary emergence of infectious diseases into novel hosts.     

Dynamics of Adaptation in Spatially Heterogeneous Metapopulations

The selection pressure experienced by organisms often varies across the species range. It is hence crucial to characterise the link between environmental spatial heterogeneity and the adaptive dynamics of species or populations. We address this issue by studying the phenotypic evolution of a spatial metapopulation using an adaptive dynamics approach. The singular strategy is found to be the mean of the optimal phenotypes in each habitat with larger weights for habitats present in large and well connected patches. The presence of spatial clusters of habitats in the metapopulation is found to facilitate specialisation and to increase both the level of adaptation and the evolutionary speed of the population when dispersal is limited. By showing that spatial structures are crucial in determining the specialisation level and the evolutionary speed of a population, our results give insight into the influence of spatial heterogeneity on the niche breadth of species.     

Canalization breakdown and evolution in a source-sink system

Understanding the process of adaptation to novel environments may help to elucidate several ecological phenomena, from the stability of species range margins to host-pathogen specificity and persistence in degraded habitats. We study evolution in one type of novel environment: a sink habitat where populations cannot persist without recurrent immigration from a source population. Previous studies on source-sink evolution have focused on how extrinsic environmental factors influence adaptation to a sink, but few studies have examined how intrinsic genetic factors influence adaptation. We use an individual-based model to explore how genetic canalization that evolves in gene regulation networks influences the adaptation of a population to a sink. We find that as canalization in the regulation network increases, the probability of adaptation to the novel habitat decreases. When adaptation to the habitat does occur, it is usually preceded by a breakdown of canalization. As evolution continues in the novel habitat, canalization reemerges, but a legacy of the breakdown may remain, even after several generations. We also find that environmental noise tends to increase the probability of adaptation to the novel habitat. Our results suggest that the details of genetic architecture can significantly influence the likelihood of niche evolution in novel environments.     

Allee effects, immigration, and the evolution of species' niches

Theoretical studies of adaptation to sink environments (with conditions outside the niche requirements of a species) have shown that immigration from source habitats can either facilitate or inhibit local adaptation. Here, we examine the influence of immigration on the evolution of local adaptation, given an Allee effect (i.e., at low densities, absolute fitness increases with population density). We consider a deterministic model for evolution at a haploid locus, and a stochastic individual-based model for evolution of a quantitative trait, and several kinds of Allee effects. We demonstrate that increased immigration can greatly facilitate adaptive evolution in the sink; with greater immigration, local population sizes rise, and because of the Allee effect, there is a positive indirect effect of immigration on local fitness. This makes it easier for alleles of modest effect to be captured by natural selection, transforming the sink into a locally adapted population that can persist without immigration.     

The Effects of Density Dependence and Immigration on Local Adaptation and Niche Evolution in a Black-Hole Sink Environment

We examine the effects of density dependence and immigration on local adaptation in a "black-hole sink" habitat, i.e., a habitat in which isolated populations of a species would tend to extinction but where a population is demographically maintained by recurrent one-way migration from a separate source habitat in which the species persists. Using a diploid, one-locus model of a discrete-generation sink population maintained by immigration from a fixed source population, we show that a locally favored allele will spread when rare in the sink if the absolute fitness (or, in some cases, the geometric-mean absolute fitness) of heterozygotes with the favored allele is above one in the sink habitat. With density dependence, the criterion for spread can depend on the rate of immigration, because immigration affects local densities and, hence, absolute fitness. Given the successful establishment of a locally favored allele, it will be maintained by a migration-selection balance and the resulting polymorphic population will be sustained deterministically with either stable or unstable dynamics. The densities of stable polymorphic populations tend to exceed densities that would be maintained in the absence of the favored allele. With strong density regulation, spread of the favored allele may destabilize population dynamics. Our analyses show that polymorphic populations which form subsequent to the establishment of favorable alleles have the capacity to persist deterministically without immigration. Finally, we examined the probabilistic rate at which new favored alleles arise and become established in a sink population. Our results suggest that favored alleles are established most readily at intermediate levels of immigration.     

Dispersal among habitats varying in fitness: reciprocating migration through ideal habitat selection

Current evolutionary models of dispersal set the ends of a continuum where the number of individuals emigrating from a habitat either equals the number of individuals immigrating (balanced dispersal) or where emigrants flow from a source habitat to a corresponding sink. Theories of habitat selection suggest a more sophisticated conditional strategy where individuals disperse from habitats where they have the greatest impact on fitness to habitats where their per capita impact is lower. Asymmetries between periods of population growth and decline result in a reciprocating dispersal strategy where the direction of migration is reversed as populations wax and wane. Thus, for example, if net migration of individuals flows from high- to low-density habitats during periods of population growth, net migration will flow in the opposite direction during population decline. Stochastic simulations and analytical models of reciprocating dispersal demonstrate that fitness, carrying capacity, stochastic dynamics, and interference from dominants interact to determine whether dispersal is balanced between habitats, or whether one habitat or the other acts as a net donor of dispersing individuals. While the pattern of dispersal may vary, each is consistent with an underlying strategy of density-dependent habitat selection.     

Understanding the contribution of habitats and regional variation to long‐term population trends in tricolored blackbirds

Population trends represent a minimum amount of information required to assess the conservation status of a species. However, understanding and detecting trends can be complicated by variation among habitats and regions, and by dispersal connecting habitats through source‐sink dynamics. We analyzed trends in breeding populations between habitats and regions to better understand the overall dynamics of a species' decline. Specifically, we analyzed historical trends in breeding populations of tricolored blackbirds (Agelaius tricolor) using breeding records from 1907 to 2009. The species breeds itinerantly and ephemerally uses multiple habitat types and breeding areas, which make interpretation of trends complex. We found overall abundance declines of 63% between 1935 and 1975. Since 1980 overall declines became nonsignificant and obscure despite large amounts of data from 1980 to 2009. Temporal trends differed between breeding habitat types and were associated with regional differences in population declines. A new habitat, triticale crops (a wheat‐rye hybrid grain) produced colonies 40× larger, on average, than other breeding habitats, and contributed to a change in regional distribution since it primarily occurred in a single region. The mechanism for such an effect is not clear, but could represent the local availability of foodstuffs in the landscape rather than something specific to triticale crops. While variation in trends among habitats clearly occurred, they could not easily be ascribed to source‐sink dynamics, ecological traps, habitat selection or other detailed ecological mechanisms. Nonetheless, such exchanges provide valuable information to guide management of dynamic systems.     

HOW DOES POLLEN VERSUS SEED DISPERSAL AFFECT NICHE EVOLUTION?

In heterogeneous landscapes, the genetic and demographic consequences of dispersal influence the evolution of niche width. Unless pollen is limiting, pollen dispersal does not contribute directly to population growth. However, by disrupting local adaptation, it indirectly affects population dynamics. We compare the effect of pollen versus seed dispersal on the evolution of niche width in heterogeneous habitats, explicitly considering the feedback between maladaptation and demography. We consider two scenarios: the secondary contact of two subpopulations, in distinct, formerly isolated habitats, and the colonization of an empty habitat with dispersal between the new and ancestral habitat. With an analytical model, we identify critical levels of genetic variance leading to niche contraction (secondary contact scenario), or expansion (new habitat scenario). We confront these predictions with simulations where the genetic variance freely evolves. Niche contraction occurs when habitats are very different. It is faster as total gene flow increases or as pollen predominates in overall gene flow. Niche expansion occurs when habitat heterogeneity is not too high. Seed dispersal accelerates it, whereas pollen dispersal tends to retard it. In both scenarios very high seed dispersal leads to extinction. Overall, our results predict a wider niche for species dispersing seeds more than pollen.     

Historical demographic dynamics underlying local adaptation in the presence of gene flow

The range of a species is the result of the relative contribution of spatial tracking of environmental requirements and adaptation to ecological conditions outside the ancestral niche. The appearance of novel habitats caused by climatic oscillation can promote range expansion and accompanying demographic growth. The demographic dynamics of populations leave a signal in \ patterns. We modeled three competing scenarios pertaining to the circumstance of a range expansion by the Karoo Scrub‐Robin into newly available habitat resulting from the increasing aridification of southern Africa. Genetic variation was contrasted with the theoretical expectations of a spatial range expansion, and compared with data of a putative adaptive trait. We infer that this bird likely colonized the arid zone, as a consequence of adaptive evolution in a small peripheral population, followed by an expansion with recurrent exchange of migrants with the ancestral populations.     

Population dynamics in two-patch environments: Some anomalous consequences of an optimal habitat distribution

The effect of dispersal on population size and stability is explored for a population that disperses passively between two discrete habitat patches. Two basic models are considered. In the first model, a single population experiences density-dependent growth in both patches. A graphical construction is presented which allows one to determine the spatial pattern of abundance at equilibrium for most reasonable growth models and rates of dispersal. It is shown under rather general conditions that this equilibrium is unique and globally stable. In the second model, the dispersing population is a food-limited predator that occurs in both a source habitat (which contains a prey population) and a sink habitat (which does not). Passive dispersal between source and sink habitats can stabilize an otherwise unstable predator-prey interaction. The conditions allowing this are explored in some detail. The theory of optimal habitat selection predicts the evolutionarily stable distribution of a population, given that individuals can freely move among habitats so as to maximize individual fitness. This theory is used to develop a heuristic argument for why passive dispersal should always be selectively disadvantageous (ignoring kin effects) in a spatially heterogeneous but temporally constant environment. For both the models considered here, passive dispersal may lead to a greater number of individuals in both habitats combined than if there were no dispersal. This implies that the evolution of an optimal habitat distribution may lead to a reduction in population size; in the case of the predator-prey model, it may have the additional effect of destabilizing the interaction. The paper concludes with a discussion of the disparate effects habitat selection might have on the geographical range occupied by a species.     

Are species' responses to global change predicted by past niche evolution?

Predicting how and when adaptive evolution might rescue species from global change, and integrating this process into tools of biodiversity forecasting, has now become an urgent task. Here, we explored whether recent population trends of species can be explained by their past rate of niche evolution, which can be inferred from increasingly available phylogenetic and niche data. We examined the assemblage of 409 European bird species for which estimates of demographic trends between 1970 and 2000 are available, along with a species-level phylogeny and data on climatic, habitat and trophic niches. We found that species'' proneness to demographic decline is associated with slow evolution of the habitat niche in the past, in addition to certain current-day life-history and ecological traits. A similar result was found at a higher taxonomic level, where families prone to decline have had a history of slower evolution of climatic and habitat niches. Our results support the view that niche conservatism can prevent some species from coping with environmental change. Thus, linking patterns of past niche evolution and contemporary species dynamics for large species samples may provide insights into how niche evolution may rescue certain lineages in the face of global change.     

Source-sink populations in Mediterranean Blue tits: evidence using single-locus minisatellite probes

Long term studies on population biology of Blue tits (Parus caeruleus L.) in Mediterranean habitats have shown that in patchy landscapes life-history traits seem to be adapted to the predominant type of habitat, where reproductive success is higher. The “source-sink hypothesis” suggests that differences in the local production of fledglings result in an asymmetrical gene flow from rich deciduous habitats (“source”) to evergreen poor habitats (“sink”), preventing local adaptation in evergreen habitats. In this study we used single-locus minisatellite DNA probes to test the following predictions of the source-sink hypothesis: 1) source and sink populations are not genetically differentiated; 2) amount of gene flow is ranked in the following decreasing order: between source and sink habitats, among source habitats and among sink habitats; and 3) linkage disequilibrium is higher in sink than in source populations. Results were consistent with these three predictions, and with previous results obtained using other approaches. Results clearly support a source-sink functioning of Blue tit populations in southern France mosaic landscapes, and emphasise the need of combining genetic and ecological studies to understand the functioning of natural populations.     

Rapid evolution of adaptive niche construction in experimental microbial populations

Many species engage in adaptive niche construction: modification of the local environment that increases the modifying organism's competitive fitness. Adaptive niche construction provides an alternative pathway to higher fitness, shaping the environment rather than conforming to it. Yet, experimental evidence for the evolutionary emergence of adaptive niche construction is lacking, leaving its role in evolution uncertain. Here we report a direct observation of the de novo evolution of adaptive niche construction in populations of the bacteria Pseudomonas fluorescens. In a laboratory experiment, we allowed several bacterial populations to adapt to a novel environment and assessed whether niche construction evolved over time. We found that adaptive niche construction emerged rapidly, within approximately 100 generations, and became ubiquitous after approximately 400 generations. The large fitness effect of this niche construction was dominated by the low fitness of evolved strains in the ancestrally modified environment: evolved niche constructors were highly dependent on their specific environmental modifications. Populations were subjected to frequent resetting of environmental conditions and severe reduction of spatial habitat structure, both of which are thought to make adaptive niche construction difficult to evolve. Our finding that adaptive niche construction nevertheless evolved repeatably suggests that it may play a more important role in evolution than generally thought.     

Disentangling the effects of geographic peripherality and habitat suitability on neutral and adaptive genetic variation in Swiss stone pine

It is generally accepted that the spatial distribution of neutral genetic diversity within a species’ native range mostly depends on effective population size, demographic history, and geographic position. However, it is unclear how genetic diversity at adaptive loci correlates with geographic peripherality or with habitat suitability within the ecological niche. Using exome‐wide genomic data and distribution maps of the Alpine range, we first tested whether geographic peripherality correlates with four measures of population genetic diversity at > 17,000 SNP loci in 24 Alpine populations (480 individuals) of Swiss stone pine (Pinus cembra) from Switzerland. To distinguish between neutral and adaptive SNP sets, we used four approaches (two gene diversity estimates, F_ST outlier test, and environmental association analysis) that search for signatures of selection. Second, we established ecological niche models for P. cembra in the study range and investigated how habitat suitability correlates with genetic diversity at neutral and adaptive loci. All estimates of neutral genetic diversity decreased with geographic peripherality, but were uncorrelated with habitat suitability. However, heterozygosity (H_e) at adaptive loci based on Tajima's D declined significantly with increasingly suitable conditions. No other diversity estimates at adaptive loci were correlated with habitat suitability. Our findings suggest that populations at the edge of a species' geographic distribution harbour limited neutral genetic diversity due to demographic properties. Moreover, we argue that populations from suitable habitats went through strong selection processes, are thus well adapted to local conditions, and therefore exhibit reduced genetic diversity at adaptive loci compared to populations at niche margins.     

Evolutionary consequences of asymmetric dispersal rates

We study the consequences of asymmetric dispersal rates (e.g., due to wind or current) for adaptive evolution in a system of two habitat patches. Asymmetric dispersal rates can lead to overcrowding of the "downstream" habitat, resulting in a source-sink population structure in the absence of intrinsic quality differences between habitats or can even cause an intrinsically better habitat to function as a sink. Source-sink population structure due to asymmetric dispersal rates has similar consequences for adaptive evolution as a source-sink structure due to habitat quality differences: natural selection tends to be biased toward the source habitat. We demonstrate this for two models of adaptive evolution: invasion of a rare allele that improves fitness in one habitat but reduces it in the other and antagonistic selection on a quantitative trait determined by five additive loci. If a habitat can sustain a population without immigration, the conditions for adaptation to that habitat are most favorable if there is little or no immigration from the other habitat; the influence of emigration depends on the magnitude of the allelic effects involved and other parameters. If, however, the population is initially unable to persist in a given habitat without immigration, our model predicts that the population will be most likely to adapt to that habitat if the dispersal rates in both directions are high. Our results highlight the general message that the effect of gene flow upon local adaptation should depend profoundly on the demographic context of selection.     

EVOLUTION OF GENERALISTS AND SPECIALISTS IN SPATIALLY HETEROGENEOUS ENVIRONMENTS

Quantitative genetic models are used to investigate the evolution of generalists and specialists in a coarse-grained environment with two habitat types when there are costs attached to being a generalist. The outcomes for soft and hard selection models are qualitatively different. Under soft selection (e.g., for juvenile or male-reproductive traits) the population evolves towards the single peak in the adaptive landscape. At equilibrium, the population mean phenotype is a compromise between the reaction that would be optimal in both habitats and the reaction with the lowest cost. Furthermore, the equilibrium is closer to the optimal phenotype in the most frequent habitat, or the habitat in which selection on the focal trait is stronger. A specialist genotype always has a lower fitness than a generalist, even when the costs are high. In contrast, under hard selection (e.g., for adult or female-reproductive traits) the adaptive landscape can have one, two, or three peaks; a peak represents a population specialized to one habitat, equally adapted to both habitats, or an intermediate. One peak is always found when the reaction with the lowest cost is not much different from the optimal reaction, and this situation is similar to the soft selection case. However, multiple peaks are present when the costs become higher, and the course of evolution is then determined by initial conditions, and the region of attraction of each peak. This implies that the evolution of specialization and phenotypic plasticity may not only depend on selection regimes within habitats, but also on contingent, historical events (migration, mutation). Furthermore, the evolutionary dynamics in changing environments can be widely different for populations under hard and soft selection. Approaches to measure costs in natural and experimental populations are discussed.     

Human altered ecosystems: suitable habitats as well as ecological traps for dragonflies (Odonata): the matter of scale

Habitat loss and degradation can be considered as major threats to freshwater invertebrates. These often irreversible processes lead to reduction of habitat patch quality and cause local extinctions of dragonflies, notably of habitat specialists. However, the biodiversity of specific secondary habitats is very high. Here, we present findings from a 10-year study that intensively monitored odonate fauna in the Upper Silesian industrial coal region having many secondary habitats characterized by very frequent disturbances due to soil instability. We evaluated qualitative changes in the dragonfly assemblages on 10 patches using a modified dragonfly biotic index. Data analysis was supplemented by a model examining population dynamics of the threatened dragonfly Leucorrhinia pectoralis, using the capture-mark-recapture method, as an effective indicator of habitat quality. We show that dynamics of environmental conditions in secondary habitats are reflected in population dynamics of dragonfly populations and assemblages. As frequency of L. pectoralis population extinctions within the patch is considerable and independent of size and spatial isolation of single habitats, these can be regarded as ecological traps. Nevertheless, the metapopulation dynamics may be a key adaptation of dragonflies to frequent freshwater habitat disturbances. We suggest that local extinctions are effectively balanced with (re-)colonization of newly emerging freshwater habitats. These findings have implications for potential conservation management of specific human-made habitats, because secondary habitats with a great diversity of succession stages arising directly as a consequence of environmental instability may be considered as partial alternatives to natural habitats in cultural landscapes.     

Local specialists among endangered populations of medaka, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Oryzias latipes</Emphasis>, harboring in fragmented patches

Habitat fragmentation seriously damages local biodiversity of widespread organisms, or so-called common species, in agricultural habitats. We hypothesized that specialists adaptive to local particular conditions makes a population of generalists vulnerable to habitat fragmentation. To evaluate the extinction-proneness of common rural species, we determined the extent of phenotypic divergence using paddy fish, medaka, Oryzias latipes. Despite its wide geographical range, a rapid population decline threatens its persistence, and remnants persist in fragmented patches. We studied niche profiling of populations from different habitats for a factor that possibly lies behind the species being abundant within particular areas. Measurements of behavioral and morphological characteristics provided comparable variables between populations. Principal component analysis summarized these variables into compounded elements relevant to foraging and predator avoidance. Detection of association between behavioral and morphological traits showed a limited number of phenotypes specific to a local habitat, through which individuals adapted to specific narrow niches. Medaka maintains its status by accumulating a variety of local specialists. Because of the limited-dispersal ability, specialized individuals are vulnerable to isolation in less suitable patches that are caused by the destruction of the habitat-network. From a conservation point of view, the results suggest that preservation of habitats that also serve as corridors is recommended for enhancing the richness of common species that are composed of adaptively diversified phenotypes.