Climate change causes rapid changes in the distribution and site abundance of birds in winter

Detecting coherent signals of climate change is best achieved by conducting expansive, long‐term studies. Here, using counts of waders (Charadrii) collected from ca. 3500 sites over 30 years and covering a major portion of western Europe, we present the largest‐scale study to show that faunal abundance is influenced by climate in winter. We demonstrate that the ‘weighted centroids’ of populations of seven species of wader occurring in internationally important numbers have undergone substantial shifts of up to 115 km, generally in a northeasterly direction. To our knowledge, this shift is greater than that recorded in any other study, but closer to what would be expected as a result of the spatial distribution of ecological zones. We establish that year‐to‐year changes in site abundance have been positively correlated with concurrent changes in temperature, but that this relationship is most marked towards the colder extremities of the birds' range, suggesting that shifts have occurred as a result of range expansion and that responses to climate change are temperature dependent. Many attempts to model the future impacts of climate change on the distribution of organisms, assume uniform responses or shifts throughout a species' range or with temperature, but our results suggest that this may not be a valid approach. We propose that, with warming temperatures, hitherto unsuitable sites in northeastern Europe will host increasingly important wader numbers, but that this may not be matched by declines elsewhere within the study area. The need to establish that such changes are occurring is accentuated by the statutory importance of this taxon in the designation of protected areas.     

Climate‐driven substitution of habitat‐forming species leads to reduced biodiversity within a temperate marine community

Aim

In marine ecosystems, habitat‐forming species (HFS) such as reef‐building corals and canopy‐forming macroalgae alter local environmental conditions and can promote biodiversity by providing biogenic living space for a vast array of associated organisms. We examined community‐level impacts of observed climate‐driven shifts in the relative abundances of two superficially similar HFS, the warm‐water kelp Laminaria ochroleuca and the cool‐water kelp Laminaria hyperborea.

Location

Western English Channel, north‐east Atlantic

Methods

We compared algal and invertebrate assemblages associated with kelp stipes and holdfasts, across multiple sites and sampling events. Significant differences were recorded in the structure of assemblages between the host kelp species at each site and event.

Results

Assemblages associated with stipes of the cool‐water HFS were, on average, >12 times more diverse and supported >3600 times more biomass compared with the warm‐water HFS. Holdfast assemblages also differed significantly between species, although to a lesser extent than those associated with stipes. Overall, assemblages associated with the warm‐water HFS were markedly impoverished and comprised far fewer rare or unique taxa.

Main conclusions

While previous research has shown how climate‐driven loss of HFS can cause biodiversity loss, our study demonstrates that climate‐driven substitutions of HFS can also lead to impoverished assemblages. The indirect effects of climate change remain poorly resolved, but shifts in the distributions and abundances of HFS may invoke widespread ecological change, especially in marine ecosystems where facilitative interactions are particularly strong.     

Long‐term shifts in abundance and distribution of a temperate fish fauna: a response to climate change and fishing practices

Aim South‐eastern Australia is a climate change hotspot with well‐documented recent changes in its physical marine environment. The impact on and temporal responses of the biota to change are less well understood, but appear to be due to influences of climate, as well as the non‐climate related past and continuing human impacts. We attempt to resolve the agents of change by examining major temporal and distributional shifts in the fish fauna and making a tentative attribution of causal factors. Location Temperate seas of south‐eastern Australia. Methods Mixed data sources synthesized from published accounts, scientific surveys, spearfishing and angling competitions, commercial catches and underwater photographic records, from the ‘late 1800s’ to the ‘present’, were examined to determine shifts in coastal fish distributions. Results Forty‐five species, representing 27 families (about 30% of the inshore fish families occurring in the region), exhibited major distributional shifts thought to be climate related. These are distributed across the following categories: species previously rare or unlisted (12), with expanded ranges (23) and/or abundance increases (30), expanded populations in south‐eastern Tasmania (16) and extra‐limital vagrants (4). Another 9 species, representing 7 families, experienced longer‐term changes (since the 1800s) probably due to anthropogenic factors, such as habitat alteration and fishing pressure: species now extinct locally (3), recovering (3), threatened (2) or with remnant populations (1). One species is a temporary resident periodically recruited from New Zealand. Of fishes exhibiting an obvious poleward movement, most are reef dwellers from three Australian biogeographic categories: widespread southern, western warm temperate (Flindersian) or eastern warm temperate (Peronian) species. Main conclusions Some of the region's largest predatory reef fishes have become extinct in Tasmanian seas since the ‘late 1800s’, most likely as a result of poor fishing practices. In more recent times, there have been major changes in the distribution patterns of Tasmanian fishes that correspond to dramatic warming observed in the local marine environment.     

Climate‐driven changes to the spatio‐temporal distribution of the parasitic nematode,Haemonchus contortus,in sheep in Europe

Recent climate change has resulted in changes to the phenology and distribution of invertebrates worldwide. Where invertebrates are associated with disease, climate variability and changes in climate may also affect the spatio‐temporal dynamics of disease. Due to its significant impact on sheep production and welfare, the recent increase in diagnoses of ovine haemonchosis caused by the nematode Haemonchus contortus in some temperate regions is particularly concerning. This study is the first to evaluate the impact of climate change on H. contortus at a continental scale. A model of the basic reproductive quotient of macroparasites, Q₀, adapted to H. contortus and extended to incorporate environmental stochasticity and parasite behaviour, was used to simulate Pan‐European spatio‐temporal changes in H. contortus infection pressure under scenarios of climate change. Baseline Q₀ simulations, using historic climate observations, reflected the current distribution of H. contortus in Europe. In northern Europe, the distribution of H. contortus is currently limited by temperatures falling below the development threshold during the winter months and within‐host arrested development is necessary for population persistence over winter. In southern Europe, H. contortus infection pressure is limited during the summer months by increased temperature and decreased moisture. Compared with this baseline, Q₀ simulations driven by a climate model ensemble predicted an increase in H. contortus infection pressure by the 2080s. In northern Europe, a temporal range expansion was predicted as the mean period of transmission increased by 2–3 months. A bimodal seasonal pattern of infection pressure, similar to that currently observed in southern Europe, emerges in northern Europe due to increasing summer temperatures and decreasing moisture. The predicted patterns of change could alter the epidemiology of H. contortus in Europe, affect the future sustainability of contemporary control strategies, and potentially drive local adaptation to climate change in parasite populations.     

Climate‐driven habitat change causes evolution in Threespine Stickleback

Climate change can shape evolution directly by altering abiotic conditions or indirectly by modifying habitats, yet few studies have investigated the effects of climate‐driven habitat change on contemporary evolution. We resampled populations of Threespine Stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) along a latitudinal gradient in California bar‐built estuaries to examine their evolution in response to changing climate and habitat. We took advantage of the strong association between stickleback lateral plate phenotypes and Ectodysplasin A (Eda) genotypes to infer changes in allele frequencies over time. Our results show that over time the frequency of low‐plated alleles has generally increased and heterozygosity has decreased. Latitudinal patterns in stickleback plate phenotypes suggest that evolution at Eda is a response to climate‐driven habitat transformation rather than a direct consequence of climate. As climate change has reduced precipitation and increased temperature and drought, bar‐built estuaries have transitioned from lotic (flowing‐water) to lentic (still‐water) habitats, where the low‐plated allele is favoured. The low‐plated allele has achieved fixation at the driest, hottest southernmost sites, a trend that is progressing northward with climate change. Climate‐driven habitat change is therefore causing a reduction in genetic variation that may hinder future adaptation for populations facing multiple threats.     

Temperature‐driven coral decline: the role of marine protected areas

Warming ocean temperatures are considered to be an important cause of the degradation of the world's coral reefs. Marine protected areas (MPAs) have been proposed as one tool to increase coral reef ecosystem resistance and resilience (i.e. recovery) to the negative effects of climate change, yet few studies have evaluated their efficacy in achieving these goals. We used a high resolution 4 km global temperature anomaly database from 1985–2005 and 8040 live coral cover surveys on protected and unprotected reefs to determine whether or not MPAs have been effective in mitigating temperature‐driven coral loss. Generally, protection in MPAs did not reduce the effect of warm temperature anomalies on coral cover declines. Shortcomings in MPA design, including size and placement, may have contributed to the lack of an MPA effect. Empirical studies suggest that corals that have been previously exposed to moderate levels of thermal stress have greater adaptive capacity and resistance to future thermal stress events. Existing MPAs protect relatively fewer reefs with moderate anomaly frequencies, potentially reducing their effectiveness. However, our results also suggest that the benefits from MPAs may not be great enough to offset the magnitude of losses from acute thermal stress events. Although MPAs are important conservation tools, their limitations in mitigating coral loss from acute thermal stress events suggest that they need to be complemented with policies aimed at reducing the activities responsible for climate change.     

Modelling changes in species’ abundance in response to projected climate change

Aim Existing climate envelope models give an indication of broad scale shifts in distribution, but do not specifically provide information on likely future population changes useful for conservation prioritization and planning. We demonstrate how these techniques can be developed to model likely future changes in absolute density and population size as a result of climate change. Location Great Britain. Methods Generalized linear models were used to model breeding densities of two northerly‐ and two southerly‐distributed bird species as a function of climate and land use. Models were built using count data from extensive national bird monitoring data and incorporated detectability to estimate absolute abundance. Projections of likely future changes in the distribution and abundance of these species were made by applying these models to projections of future climate change under two emissions scenarios. Results Models described current spatial variation in abundance for three of the four species and produced modelled current estimates of national populations that were similar to previously published estimates for all species. Climate change was projected to result in national population declines in the two northerly‐distributed species, with declines for Eurasian curlew Numenius arquata projected to be particularly severe. Conversely, the abundances of the two southerly distributed species were projected to increase nationally. Projected maps of future abundance may be used to identify priority areas for the future conservation of each species. Main conclusions The analytical methods provide a framework to make projections of impacts of climate change on species abundance, rather than simply projected range changes. Outputs may be summarized at any spatial scale, providing information to inform future conservation planning at national, regional and local scales. Results suggest that as a consequence of climate change, northerly distributed bird species in Great Britain are likely to become an increasingly high conservation priority within the UK.     

Climate‐change impacts on sandy‐beach biota: crossing a line in the sand

Sandy ocean beaches are iconic assets that provide irreplaceable ecosystem services to society. Despite their great socioeconomic importance, beaches as ecosystems are severely under‐represented in the literature on climate‐change ecology. Here, we redress this imbalance by examining whether beach biota have been observed to respond to recent climate change in ways that are consistent with expectations under climate change. We base our assessments on evidence coming from case studies on beach invertebrates in South America and on sea turtles globally. Surprisingly, we find that observational evidence for climate‐change responses in beach biota is more convincing for invertebrates than for highly charismatic turtles. This asymmetry is paradoxical given the better theoretical understanding of the mechanisms by which turtles are likely to respond to changes in climate. Regardless of this disparity, knowledge of the unique attributes of beach systems can complement our detection of climate‐change impacts on sandy‐shore invertebrates to add rigor to studies of climate‐change ecology for sandy beaches. To this end, we combine theory from beach ecology and climate‐change ecology to put forward a suite of predictive hypotheses regarding climate impacts on beaches and to suggest ways that these can be tested. Addressing these hypotheses could significantly advance both beach and climate‐change ecology, thereby progressing understanding of how future climate change will impact coastal ecosystems more generally.     

Temperature thresholds for germination in 20 short‐range endemic plant species from a Greenstone Belt in southern Western Australia

• The study of climate‐driven effects on seed traits such as germination has gained momentum over the past decade as the impact of global warming becomes more apparent on the health and survival of plant diversity.
• Seed response to warming was evaluated in a suite of short‐range endemic species from the biodiverse Greenstone Belt of southern Western Australia. The temperature dimensions for germination in 20 woody perennials were identified using small unreplicated samples over 6 weeks on a temperature gradient plate (constant and fluctuating temperatures between 5 and 40 °C). These data were subsequently modelled against current and forecast (2070) mean monthly minimum and maximum temperatures to illustrate seasonal changes to germination timing and final percentage germination.
• All but one species attained full germination in at least one cell on the gradient plate. Modelling of the data suggested only minimal changes to percentage germination despite a forecast rise in diurnal temperatures over the next 50 years. Nine species were predicted to experience declines of between <1% and 7%, whilst 11 species were predicted to increase their germination by <1% to 3%. Overall, the speed of germination is predicted to increase but the timing of germination for most species shifts seasonally (both advances and delays) as a result of changing diurnal temperatures.
• The capacity of this suite of species to cope with warmer temperatures during a critical early life stage shows a degree of adaptation to heterogeneous environments. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial to managing and conserving plant diversity.

     

Temporal changes in artificial light exposure of marine turtle nesting areas

Artificial light at night poses a significant threat to multiple taxa across the globe. In coastal regions, artificial lighting close to marine turtle nesting beaches is disruptive to their breeding success. Prioritizing effective management of light pollution requires an understanding of how the light exposure of nesting areas changes over time in response to changing temporal and spatial distributions of coastal development. We analyzed multitemporal, satellite night‐light data, in combination with linear mixed model analysis, to determine broadscale changes in artificial light exposure at Australian marine turtle nesting areas between 1993 and 2010. We found seven marine turtle management units (MU), from five species, have experienced significant increases in light exposure over time, with flatback turtles nesting in east Australia experiencing the fastest increases. The remaining 12 MUs showed no significant change in light exposure. Unchanging MUs included those previously identified as having high exposure to light pollution (located in western Australia and southern Queensland), indicating that turtles in these areas have been potentially exposed to high light levels since at least the early nineties. At a finer geographic scale (within‐MU), nine MUs contained nesting areas with significant increases in light exposure. These nesting areas predominantly occurred close to heavily industrialized coastal areas, thus emphasizing the importance of rigorous light management in industry. Within all MUs, nesting areas existed where light levels were extremely low and/or had not significantly increased since 1993. With continued coastal development, nesting females may shift to these darker/unchanging ‘buffer’ areas in the future. This is valuable information that informs our understanding of the capacity and resilience of marine turtles faced with coastal development: an understanding that is essential for effective marine turtle conservation.     

Protected areas act as a buffer against detrimental effects of climate change—Evidence from large‐scale,long‐term abundance data

Climate change is driving species to shift their distributions toward high altitudes and latitudes, while habitat loss and fragmentation may hamper species ability to follow their climatic envelope. These two drivers of change may act in synergy, with particularly disastrous impacts on biodiversity. Protected areas, PAs, may thus represent crucial buffers against the compounded effects of climate change and habitat loss. However, large‐scale studies assessing the performance of PAs as such buffers remain scarce and are largely based on species occurrence data. Conversely, abundance data have proven to be more reliable for addressing changes in wildlife populations under climate change. We evaluated changes in bird abundance from the 1970s–80s to the 2000s inside and outside PAs at the trailing range edge of 30 northern bird species and at the leading range edge of 70 southern species. Abundances of retracting northern species were higher and declined less inside PAs at their trailing range edge. The positive effect of PAs on bird abundances was particularly marked in northern species that rely strongly on PAs, that is, their density distribution is largely confined within PAs. These species were nearly absent outside PAs in the 2000s. The abundances of southern species were in general lower inside PAs and increased less from the 70s–80s to 2000s. Nonetheless, species with high reliance on PAs had much higher abundances inside than outside PAs in the 2000s. These results show that PAs are essential in mitigating the retraction of northern species, but also facilitate northward expansions of southern species highly reliant on PAs. Our study provides empirical evidence documenting the role of PAs in facilitating species to adjust to rapidly changing climatic conditions, thereby contributing to the mitigation of impending biodiversity loss. PAs may thus allow time for initiating wider conservation programs on currently unprotected land.     

Precipitation and winter temperature predict long‐term range‐scale abundance changes in Western North American birds

Predicting biodiversity responses to climate change remains a difficult challenge, especially in climatically complex regions where precipitation is a limiting factor. Though statistical climatic envelope models are frequently used to project future scenarios for species distributions under climate change, these models are rarely tested using empirical data. We used long‐term data on bird distributions and abundance covering five states in the western US and in the Canadian province of British Columbia to test the capacity of statistical models to predict temporal changes in bird populations over a 32‐year period. Using boosted regression trees, we built presence‐absence and abundance models that related the presence and abundance of 132 bird species to spatial variation in climatic conditions. Presence/absence models built using 1970–1974 data forecast the distributions of the majority of species in the later time period, 1998–2002 (mean AUC = 0.79 ± 0.01). Hindcast models performed equivalently (mean AUC = 0.82 ± 0.01). Correlations between observed and predicted abundances were also statistically significant for most species (forecast mean Spearman′s ρ = 0.34 ± 0.02, hindcast = 0.39 ± 0.02). The most stringent test is to test predicted changes in geographic patterns through time. Observed changes in abundance patterns were significantly positively correlated with those predicted for 59% of species (mean Spearman′s ρ = 0.28 ± 0.02, across all species). Three precipitation variables (for the wettest month, breeding season, and driest month) and minimum temperature of the coldest month were the most important predictors of bird distributions and abundances in this region, and hence of abundance changes through time. Our results suggest that models describing associations between climatic variables and abundance patterns can predict changes through time for some species, and that changes in precipitation and winter temperature appear to have already driven shifts in the geographic patterns of abundance of bird populations in western North America.     

Climate‐induced changes in the distribution of freshwater fish: observed and predicted trends

1. Climate change could be one of the main threats faced by aquatic ecosystems and freshwater biodiversity. Improved understanding, monitoring and forecasting of its effects are thus crucial for researchers, policy makers and biodiversity managers. 2. Here, we provide a review and some meta‐analyses of the literature reporting both observed and predicted climate‐induced effects on the distribution of freshwater fish. After reviewing three decades of research, we summarise how methods in assessing the effects of climate change have evolved, and whether current knowledge is geographically or taxonomically biased. We conducted multispecies qualitative and quantitative analyses to find out whether the observed responses of freshwater fish to recent changes in climate are consistent with those predicted under future climate scenarios. 3. We highlight the fact that, in recent years, freshwater fish distributions have already been affected by contemporary climate change in ways consistent with anticipated responses under future climate change scenarios: the range of most cold‐water species could be reduced or shift to higher altitude or latitude, whereas that of cool‐ and warm‐water species could expand or contract. 4. Most evidence about the effects of climate change is underpinned by the large number of studies devoted to cold‐water fish species (mainly salmonids). Our knowledge is still incomplete, however, particularly due to taxonomic and geographic biases. 5. Observed and expected responses are well correlated among families, suggesting that model predictions are supported by empirical evidence. The observed effects are of greater magnitude and show higher variability than the predicted effects, however, indicating that other drivers of changes may be interacting with climate and seriously affecting freshwater fish. 6. Finally, we suggest avenues of research required to address current gaps in what we know about the climate‐induced effects on freshwater fish distribution, including (i) the need for more long‐term data analyses, (ii) the assessment of climate‐induced effects at higher levels of organisation (e.g. assemblages), (iii) methodological improvements (e.g. accounting for uncertainty among projections and species’ dispersal abilities, combining both distributional and empirical approaches and including multiple non‐climatic stressors) and (iv) systematic confrontation of observed versus predicted effects across multi‐species assemblages and at several levels of biological organisation (i.e. populations and assemblages).     

Climate‐change winners and losers: stream macroinvertebrates of a submontane region in Central Europe

1. Freshwater ecosystems will be profoundly affected by global climate change, especially those in mountainous areas, which are known to be particularly vulnerable to warming temperatures. We modelled impacts of climate change on the distribution ranges of 38 species of benthic stream macroinvertebrates from nine macroinvertebrate orders covering all river zones from the headwaters to large river reaches. 2. Species altitudinal shifts as well as range changes up to the year 2080 were simulated using the A2a and B2a Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate‐warming scenarios. Presence‐only species distribution models were constructed for a stream network in Germany’s lower mountain ranges by means of consensus projections of four algorithms, as implemented in the BIOMOD package in R (GLM, GAM, GBM and ANN). 3. Species were predicted to shift an average of 122 and 83 m up in altitude along the river continuum by the year 2080 under the A2a and B2a climate‐warming scenarios, respectively. No correlation between altitudinal shifts and mean annual air temperature of species’ occurrence could be detected. 4. Depending on the climate‐warming scenario, most or all (97% for A2a and 100% for B2a) of the macroinvertebrate species investigated were predicted to survive under climate change in the study area. Ranges were predicted to contract for species that currently occur in streams with low annual mean air temperatures but expand for species that inhabit rivers where air temperatures are higher. 5. Our models predict that novel climate conditions will reorganise species composition and community structure along the river continuum. Possible effects are discussed, including significant reductions in population size of headwater species, eventually leading to a loss of genetic diversity. A shift in river species composition is likely to enhance the establishment of non‐native macroinvertebrates in the lower reaches of the river continuum.