Risk Factors for Chronic and Recurrent Otitis Media–A Meta-Analysis

Risk factors associated with chronic otitis media (COM) and recurrent otitis media (ROM) have been investigated in previous studies. The objective of this study was to integrate the findings and determine the possible risk factors for COM/ROM based on our meta-analysis. A comprehensive search of electronic bibliographic databases (PubMed, Embase, CNKI and Wanfang database) from 1964 to Dec 2012, as well as a manual search of references of articles, was performed. A total of 2971 articles were searched, and 198 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility; 24 studies were eligible for this meta-analysis. Regarding risk factors for COM/ROM, there were two to nine different studies from which the odds ratios (ORs) could be pooled. The presence of allergy or atopy increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.13–1.64; P = 0.001). An upper respiratory tract infection (URTI) significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 6.59; 95% CI, 3.13–13.89; P<0.00001). Snoring appeared to be a significant risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.78–2.16; P<0.00001). A patient history of acute otitis media (AOM)/ROM increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 11.13; 95% CI, 1.06–116.44; P = 0.04). Passive smoke significantly increased the risk of COM/ROM (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.02–1.89 P = 0.04). Low social status appeared to be a risk factor for COM/ROM (OR, 3.82; 95% CI, 1.11–13.15; P = 0.03). Our meta-analysis identified reliable conclusions that allergy/atopy, URTI, snoring, previous history of AOM/ROM, Second-hand smoke and low social status are important risk factors for COM/ROM. Other unidentified risk factors need to be identified in further studies with critical criteria.     

Fetal Growth and Risk of Stillbirth: A Population-Based Case–Control Study

Background

Stillbirth is strongly related to impaired fetal growth. However, the relationship between fetal growth and stillbirth is difficult to determine because of uncertainty in the timing of death and confounding characteristics affecting normal fetal growth.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a population-based case–control study of all stillbirths and a representative sample of live births in 59 hospitals in five geographic areas in the US. Fetal growth abnormalities were categorized as small for gestational age (SGA) (<10th percentile) or large for gestational age (LGA) (>90th percentile) at death (stillbirth) or delivery (live birth) using population, ultrasound, and individualized norms. Gestational age at death was determined using an algorithm that considered the time-of-death interval, postmortem examination, and reliability of the gestational age estimate. Data were weighted to account for the sampling design and differential participation rates in various subgroups. Among 527 singleton stillbirths and 1,821 singleton live births studied, stillbirth was associated with SGA based on population, ultrasound, and individualized norms (odds ratio [OR] [95% CI]: 3.0 [2.2 to 4.0]; 4.7 [3.7 to 5.9]; 4.6 [3.6 to 5.9], respectively). LGA was also associated with increased risk of stillbirth using ultrasound and individualized norms (OR [95% CI]: 3.5 [2.4 to 5.0]; 2.3 [1.7 to 3.1], respectively), but not population norms (OR [95% CI]: 0.6 [0.4 to 1.0]). The associations were stronger with more severe SGA and LGA (<5th and >95th percentile). Analyses adjusted for stillbirth risk factors, subset analyses excluding potential confounders, and analyses in preterm and term pregnancies showed similar patterns of association. In this study 70% of cases and 63% of controls agreed to participate. Analysis weights accounted for differences between consenting and non-consenting women. Some of the characteristics used for individualized fetal growth estimates were missing and were replaced with reference values. However, a sensitivity analysis using individualized norms based on the subset of stillbirths and live births with non-missing variables showed similar findings.

Conclusions

Stillbirth is associated with both growth restriction and excessive fetal growth. These findings suggest that, contrary to current practices and recommendations, stillbirth prevention strategies should focus on both severe SGA and severe LGA pregnancies. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Soil Microbial Communities and Ecological Risk Assessment: Risk Assessors’ Perspective

In the past, ecological risk assessments (ERAs) have generally overlooked the soil microbial community when evaluating the impacts of contaminants in soil. However, the soil microbial community, which includes bacteria and fungi, performs functions necessary for overall ecosystem health, including nitrogen fixation, nutrient cycling, and even degradation of contaminants. The incorporation of the soil microbial community into ERA requires the compilation of adequate toxicity data to complete the hazard assessment phase of the risk assessment. A variety of soil microbial toxicity tests exist that provide rapid and inexpensive results. Surveys of the microbial community at a contaminated site may also provide insight as to their functioning in the presence of contaminants. This paper explores the use of toxicity tests and surveys to evaluate chemical toxicity to microbes. However, many questions related to the best methodological approach to an ERA of the soil microbial community have yet to be answered.     

Incidence and Risk Factors of Homicide–Suicide in Swiss Households: National Cohort Study

Background

Homicide–suicides are rare but catastrophic events. This study examined the epidemiology of homicide-suicide in Switzerland.

Methods

The study identified homicide–suicide events 1991–2008 in persons from the same household in the Swiss National Cohort, which links census and mortality records. The analysis examined the association of the risk of dying in a homicide–suicide event with socio-demographic variables, measured at the individual-level, household composition variables and area-level variables. Proportional hazards regression models were calculated for male perpetrators and female victims. Results are presented as age-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI).

Results

The study identified 158 deaths from homicide–suicide events, including 85 murder victims (62 women, 4 men, 19 children and adolescents) and 68 male and 5 female perpetrators. The incidence was 3 events per million households and year. Firearms were the most prominent method for both homicides and suicides. The risk of perpetrating homicide-suicide was higher in divorced than in married men (HR 3.64; 95%CI 1.56–8.49), in foreigners without permanent residency compared to Swiss citizens (HR 3.95; 1.52–10.2), higher in men without religious affiliations than in Catholics (HR 2.23; 1.14–4.36) and higher in crowded households (HR 4.85; 1.72–13.6 comparing ≥2 with <1 persons/room). There was no association with education, occupation or nationality, the number of children, the language region or degree of urbanicity. Associations were similar for female victims.

Conclusions

This national longitudinal study shows that living conditions associated with psychological stress and lower levels of social support are associated with homicide-suicide events in Switzerland.     

Incidence of and Risk Factors Associated with Pulmonary and Extra-Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Saudi Arabia (2010–2011)

Setting

National Tuberculosis Program, Department of Public Health, Ministry of Health, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA).

Objective

To summarize data on the incidence of tuberculosis and associated risk factors for cases reported during 2010–2011.

Design

Retrospective analysis of routinely collected data through an established national disease notification system of the Ministry of Health in KSA.

Results

The estimated incidence of all forms of tuberculosis fell from 15.8/100000 (95% CI: 15.3/100,000–16.3/100,000) in 2010 to 13.8/100,000 (95% CI: 13.4/100,000–14.2/100,000) in 2011. Saudis experienced a decrease from 11.8/100,000 (95% CI: 11.3/100,000 to 12.3/100,000) in 2010 to 9.9/100,000 (95% CI: 9.5/100,000–10.4/100,000) in 2011 while the incidence in non-Saudis declined from 24.7/100,000 (95% CI: 23.6/100,000 to 25.7/100,000) in 2010 to 22.5/100,000 (95% CI: 21.5/100,000 to 23.4/100,000) in 2011. The proportion of Extra Pulmonary TB (EPTB) which increased minimally from 30% in 2010 to 32% in 2011 was higher than global figures and strongly associated with age, sex, nationality and occupation.

Conclusion

The current estimated incidence of about 14/100,000 in 2011 is less than half its estimated value of 44/100000 in 1990. Without prejudice to any under-reporting, the KSA appeared to be on the course for TB elimination by 2050 having reached the first milestone set by WHO. The proportion of EPTB remains higher than global figure and age, sex, nationality and occupation were significant independent predictors of EPTB.     

Prevalence and Risk Factors of Chronic Otitis Media: The Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2010–2012

BackgroundThe performance of nationwide studies of chronic otitis media (COM) in adults has been insufficient in Korea. We evaluated the prevalence and risk factors of COM in Korea.MethodsThis study was conducted using data from the fifth Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (n = 23,621). After excluding the subjects under 20 year old and suffered from cancers, 16,063 patients were evaluated for COM. Participants underwent a medical interview, physical examination, endoscopic examination, and blood and urine test. COM was diagnosed by trained residents in the Department of Otorhinolaryngology using an ear, nose, and throat questionnaire and otoendoscopy findings. Data on the presence and absence of COM were collected. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify its risk factors.ResultsOf the 16,063 participants aged above 20 year old, the weighted prevalence of COM was 3.8%. In the multivariate analyses, the following factors showed high odds ratios (ORs) for COM: pulmonary tuberculosis (adjusted OR, 1.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-3.01), chronic rhinosinusitis (adjusted OR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.17-2.98), mild hearing impairment (adjusted OR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.34-2.85), moderate hearing impairment (adjusted OR, 4.00; 95% CI, 2.21-7.22), tinnitus (adjusted OR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.34-2.49), increased hearing thresholds in pure tone audiometry in the right ear (adjusted OR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.03), and left ear (adjusted OR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02-1.04). The following factors showed low odds ratios for COM: hepatitis B (adjusted OR, 0.28; 95% CI, 0.08-0.94) and rhinitis (adjusted OR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.42-0.88). In addition, high levels of vitamin D, lead, and cadmium, EQ-5D index; and low red blood cell counts were associated with development of COM (Student’s t-test, P < 0.01).ConclusionsOur population-based study showed that COM is not rare in Korea, and its development may be associated with various host and environmental factors. Further research on its relationships and the pathogenesis are needed.     

Risk of tumorigenicity in mesenchymal stromal cell–based therapies—Bridging scientific observations and regulatory viewpoints

In the past decade, the therapeutic value of mesenchymal stromal cells (MSCs) has been studied in various indications, thereby taking advantage of their immunosuppressive properties. Easy procurement from bone marrow, adipose tissue or other sources and conventional in vitro expansion culture have made their clinical use attractive. Bridging the gap between current scientific knowledge and regulatory prospects on the transformation potential and possible tumorigenicity of MSCs, the Cell Products Working Party and the Committee for Advanced Therapies organized a meeting with leading European experts in the field of MSCs. This meeting elucidated the risk of potential tumorigenicity related to MSC-based therapies from two angles: the scientific perspective and the regulatory point of view. The conclusions of this meeting, including the current regulatory thinking on quality, nonclinical and clinical aspects for MSCs, are presented in this review, leading to a clearer way forward for the development of such products.     

Evidence of Gene–Environment Interactions between Common Breast Cancer Susceptibility Loci and Established Environmental Risk Factors

Various common genetic susceptibility loci have been identified for breast cancer; however, it is unclear how they combine with lifestyle/environmental risk factors to influence risk. We undertook an international collaborative study to assess gene-environment interaction for risk of breast cancer. Data from 24 studies of the Breast Cancer Association Consortium were pooled. Using up to 34,793 invasive breast cancers and 41,099 controls, we examined whether the relative risks associated with 23 single nucleotide polymorphisms were modified by 10 established environmental risk factors (age at menarche, parity, breastfeeding, body mass index, height, oral contraceptive use, menopausal hormone therapy use, alcohol consumption, cigarette smoking, physical activity) in women of European ancestry. We used logistic regression models stratified by study and adjusted for age and performed likelihood ratio tests to assess gene–environment interactions. All statistical tests were two-sided. We replicated previously reported potential interactions between LSP1-rs3817198 and parity (P_interaction = 2.4×10⁻⁶) and between CASP8-rs17468277 and alcohol consumption (P_interaction = 3.1×10⁻⁴). Overall, the per-allele odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for LSP1-rs3817198 was 1.08 (1.01–1.16) in nulliparous women and ranged from 1.03 (0.96–1.10) in parous women with one birth to 1.26 (1.16–1.37) in women with at least four births. For CASP8-rs17468277, the per-allele OR was 0.91 (0.85–0.98) in those with an alcohol intake of <20 g/day and 1.45 (1.14–1.85) in those who drank ≥20 g/day. Additionally, interaction was found between 1p11.2-rs11249433 and ever being parous (P_interaction = 5.3×10⁻⁵), with a per-allele OR of 1.14 (1.11–1.17) in parous women and 0.98 (0.92–1.05) in nulliparous women. These data provide first strong evidence that the risk of breast cancer associated with some common genetic variants may vary with environmental risk factors.     

Association between Low-Grade Albuminuria and Cardiovascular Risk in Korean Adults: The 2011–2012 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

Background

Recent studies have indicated that low UACR levels (<30 μg/mg) previously considered to be in the normal range (‘low-grade albuminuria’) are associated with cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the general population.

Methods

We studied 9,736 participants with albuminuria in the normal range from the 2011–2012 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES).

Results

The weighted prevalences of metabolic syndrome (MS) and the 10-year risk for coronary heart disease measured using the Framingham risk score (FRS) ≥ 20% (high risk) were 22.5 ± 0.7% and 14.5 ± 0.7%, respectively, in males and 23.3 ± 0.8% and 8.5 ± 0.4%, respectively in females. Weighted comparisons among the tertiles of UACR revealed that the prevalences of MS and high-risk FRS increased with increasing UACR (MS: males, 15.9 ± 1.1, 20.2 ± 1.2, 32.4 ± 1.5%, respectively; P < 0.001; and females, 17.6 ± 1.0, 22.7 ± 1.0, 30.2 ± 1.4%, respectively; P < 0.001. High-risk FRS: males, 9.5 ± 0.7, 12.3 ± 0.9, 22.5 ± 1.2, respectively; P < 0.001; and females, 5.8 ± 0.6, 7.9 ± 0.7, 12.0 ± 0.9%, respectively; P < 0.001). The positive association persisted after adjusting for hypertension and diabetes. The weighted comparisons among the deciles of UACR revealed that the prevalences of MS and high-risk FRS began to increase at the ranges of 3.89–5.15 and 5.16–7.36 mg/g Cr, respectively.

Conclusion

Low-grade albuminuria was significantly associated with estimated cardiovascular risk and MS in a nationally representative sample of Koreans.     

Physical Activity and Different Concepts of Fall Risk Estimation in Older People–Results of the ActiFE-Ulm Study

Objectives

To investigate the relationship between physical activity and two measures of fall incidence in an elderly population using person-years as well as hours walked as denominators and to compare these two approaches.

Design

Prospective cohort study with one-year follow-up of falls using fall calendars. Physical activity was defined as walking duration and recorded at baseline over one week using a thigh-worn uni-axial accelerometer (activPAL; PAL Technologies, Glasgow, Scotland). Average daily physical activity was extracted from these data and categorized in low (0–59 min), medium (60–119 min) and high (120 min and more) activity.

Setting

The ActiFE Ulm study located in Ulm and adjacent regions in Southern Germany.

Participants

1,214 community-dwelling older people (≥65 years, 56.4% men).

Measurements

Negative-binomial regression models were used to calculate fall rates and incidence rate ratios for each activity category each with using (1) person-years and (2) hours walked as denominators stratified by gender, age group, fall history, and walking speed. All analyses were adjusted either for gender, age, or both.

Results

No statistically significant association was seen between falls per person-year and average daily physical activity. However, when looking at falls per 100 hours walked, those who were low active sustained more falls per hours walked. The highest incidence rates of falls were seen in low-active persons with slow walking speed (0.57 (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.33 to 0.98) falls per 100 hours walked) or history of falls (0.60 (95% CI: 0.36 to 0.99) falls per 100 hours walked).

Conclusion

Falls per hours walked is a relevant and sensitive outcome measure. It complements the concept of incidence per person years, and gives an additional perspective on falls in community-dwelling older people.     

Secular Trends in Prevalence and Risk Factors of Obesity in Infants and Preschool Children in 9 Chinese Cities, 1986–2006

Introduction

No prevalence/trends were reported in Chinese infants and preschool children at the national level in this historical period of 1980s–2000s. The objectives of this paper were to present the 20-year trends in prevalence and risk factors of obesity in children below 7 years.

Methods

Data obtained from a series of three sequential national surveys performed using the same design in the same 9 cities in 1986, 1996 and 2006. Weight and height (length <3 years) were measured using unified procedures at each period. Obesity was defined as a weight-for-height ≥120% of median of the NCHS/WHO international reference. A population-based paired matching case-control study was employed for screening risk factors.

Results

In 1986, there was no substantial obesity epidemic, but the overall obesity prevalence reached 3.4% (boys 4.1% and girls 2.7%) in 2006, rising by 2.8 times between 1986 and 2006. Reversed gender difference, relatively higher prevalence in preschool age and more rapid increase in the second 10-year were three very obvious characteristics in China, e.g. prevalence of boys 9.9% and girls 4.9% in 2006 and increasing rate of boys 0.45 percentage points per year (pp/y) and girls 0.21 pp/y at 6–7 years groups, 0.17 pp/y of the second 10-year higher 1-fold than previous.

Conclusions

China has been moving into the alarming epidemic of childhood obesity. Effort should be immediately made to prevent further deterioration. High birth weight, high parental BMI and several behavioral and family-related factors were identified and had important practical value for obesity intervention.     

Maternal Smoking during Pregnancy and Daughters’ Preeclampsia Risk

Background

An obstetrical paradox is that maternal smoking is protective for the development of preeclampsia. However, there are no prior studies investigating the risk of preeclampsia in women who were exposed to tobacco smoking during their own fetal period. We aimed to study the subsequent risk of preeclampsia in women who were exposed to tobacco smoke in utero, using a national population-based register.

Methods

Data were obtained from the Medical Birth Register of Sweden for women who were born in 1982 (smoking data first recorded) or after, who had given birth to at least one child; 153 885 pregnancies were included.

Results

The associations between intrauterine smoking exposure (three categories: non-smokers, 1–9 cigarettes/day [moderate exposure], and >9 cigarettes/day [heavy exposure]) and subsequent preeclampsia (n = 5721) were assessed using logistic regressions. In models adjusted for maternal age, parity and own smoking, the odds ratios (OR) for preeclampsia were 1.06 [95% CI: 0.99,1.13 for moderate intrauterine exposure, and 1.18, [95% CI: 1.10,1.27] for heavy exposure. Estimates were slightly strengthened in non-smoking women who experienced heavy intrauterine exposure (adjusted OR 1.24 [95% CI: 1.14,1.34]). Results were no longer statistically significant after adjustment for the woman’s own BMI, gestational age and birthweight Z-scores.

Conclusion

These data revealed some evidence of a possible weak positive association between intrauterine smoking exposure and the risk of subsequent preeclampsia, however, results were not significant over all manifestations of preeclampsia and confounder adjustment. The increased risk might be mediated through exposed women’s own BMI or birthweight.     

Background Predation Risk and Learned Predator Recognition in Convict Cichlids: Does Risk Allocation Constrain Learning?

Exposure to elevated levels of background predation risk is known to shape the behavioural response of prey organisms to known and unknown predation threats. However, less is known regarding the effects of background predation risk on predator recognition learning. Here, we test the potential effects of elevated background predation risk on the strength and retention of learned predator recognition in juvenile convict cichlids (Amatitlania nigrofasciata). In a series of laboratory trials, we exposed shoals of juvenile cichlids to conditions of elevated (vs. low) levels of background risk and then conditioned them to recognize a novel predator odour (rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss). The results of our first experiment demonstrate that despite showing reduced response intensities during initial conditioning (due to risk allocation), conditioned cichlids from high vs. low background risk show similar intensities of learned recognition when tested 24 h post‐conditioning. Moreover, elevated levels of background risk induced a predator avoidance response among unconditioned cichlids (due to induced neophobia). Our second experiment demonstrates that while we find no difference in the strength of learning when tested 24 h post‐conditioning, retention of acquired recognition is enhanced among cichlids from the high background predation risk treatment. Together, our results highlight the complex interacting effects past experience plays in shaping the response to acute predation threats.     

Meta-Analysis of the Association between COX-2 Polymorphisms and Risk of Colorectal Cancer Based on Case–Control Studies

Objective

Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) is an inducible enzyme converting arachidonic acid to prostaglandins and playing important roles in inflammatory diseases as well as tumor development. Previous studies investigating the association between COX-2 polymorphisms and colorectal cancer (CRC) risk reported conflicting results. We performed a meta-analysis of all available studies to explore this association.

Methods

All studies published up to October 2013 on the association between COX-2 polymorphisms and CRC risk were identified by searching electronic databases PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane library. The association between COX-2 polymorphisms and CRC risk was assessed by odds ratios (ORs) together with their 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

Results

Ten studies with 6,774 cases and 9,772 controls were included for −1195A>G polymorphism, 13 studies including 6,807 cases and 10,052 controls were available for −765G>C polymorphism, and 8 studies containing 5,121 cases and 7,487 controls were included for 8473T>C polymorphism. With respect to −765G>C polymorphism, we did not find a significant association with CRC risk when all eligible studies were pooled into the meta-analysis. However, in subgroup analyses by ethnicity and cancer location, with a Bonferroni corrected alpha of 0.05/2, statistical significant increased CRC risk was found in the Asian populations (dominant model CC+CG vs. GG: OR = 1.399, 95%CI: 1.113–1.760, P = 0.004) and rectum cancer patients (CC vs. GG: OR = 2.270, 95%CI: 1.295–3.980, P = 0.004; Recessive model CC vs. CG+GG: OR = 2.269, 95%CI: 1.297–3.970, P = 0.004). In subgroup analysis according to source of control, no significant association was detected. With respect to −1195A>G and 8473T>C polymorphisms, no significant association with CRC risk was demonstrated in the overall and subgroup analyses.

Conclusions

The present meta-analysis suggests that the COX-2 −765G>C polymorphism may be a risk factor for CRC in Asians and rectum cancer patients. Further large and well-designed studies are needed to confirm this association.     

Distance to High-Voltage Power Lines and Risk of Childhood Leukemia – an Analysis of Confounding by and Interaction with Other Potential Risk Factors

We investigated whether there is an interaction between distance from residence at birth to nearest power line and domestic radon and traffic-related air pollution, respectively, in relation to childhood leukemia risk. Further, we investigated whether adjusting for potential confounders alters the association between distance to nearest power line and childhood leukemia. We included 1024 cases aged <15, diagnosed with leukemia during 1968–1991, from the Danish Cancer Registry and 2048 controls randomly selected from the Danish childhood population and individually matched by gender and year of birth. We used geographical information systems to determine the distance between residence at birth and the nearest 132–400 kV overhead power line. Concentrations of domestic radon and traffic-related air pollution (NO_x at the front door) were estimated using validated models. We found a statistically significant interaction between distance to nearest power line and domestic radon regarding risk of childhood leukemia (p = 0.01) when using the median radon level as cut-off point but not when using the 75^th percentile (p = 0.90). We found no evidence of an interaction between distance to nearest power line and traffic-related air pollution (p = 0.73). We found almost no change in the estimated association between distance to power line and risk of childhood leukemia when adjusting for socioeconomic status of the municipality, urbanization, maternal age, birth order, domestic radon and traffic-related air pollution. The statistically significant interaction between distance to nearest power line and domestic radon was based on few exposed cases and controls and sensitive to the choice of exposure categorization and might, therefore, be due to chance.     

Baseline TSH Level is Associated with Risk of Anti–PD-1–Induced Thyroid Dysfunction

Objective: To characterize anti–programmed cell death 1 (PD-1)–induced thyroid immune-related adverse events (irAEs) in metastatic melanoma patients treated at our institution and to identify risk factors associated with their development.Methods: We reviewed the files of 154 patients with metastatic melanoma treated with PD-1 inhibitors at a single institution from November 1, 2011, to February 28, 2017. The association of thyroid irAEs within 120 days posttreatment initiation with age, gender, melanoma characteristics, treatment protocol, and baseline thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) was examined.Results: Overall, 42.4% developed thyroid dysfunction following treatment, including 20.2% (20/99) subclinical thyroid dysfunction, 13.1% (13/99) overt hypothyroidism, and 9.1% (9/99) overt hyperthyroidism. Of those that developed overt hyperthyroidism, 8 progressed to overt hypothyroidism, consistent with thyroiditis. Age, gender, melanoma characteristics, or treatment protocol did not modify the risk of developing thyroid irAEs. Higher baseline TSH was observed in patients who developed overt hypothyroidism versus hyperthyroidism versus those who remained euthyroid (P = .05). A pretreatment TSH >2.19 mIU/mL was associated with an increased risk of overt thyroid dysfunction (odds ratio, 3.46; 95% confidence interval, 1.2 to 9.8).Conclusion: Thyroid dysfunction following treatment with PD-1 inhibitors is common, and patients with a higher baseline TSH appear to be at increased risk. Such patients may benefit from closer monitoring of their thyroid function following initiation of anti PD-1 agents.Abbreviations: CTLA-4 = cytotoxic T-lymphocyte antigen 4; FT3 = free triiodothyronine; FT4 = free thyroxine; irAE = immune-related adverse event; PD-1 = programmed cell death 1; TFT = thyroid function test; TPO = thyroid peroxidase; TSH = thyroid-stimulating hormone     

Bayesian Risk Mapping and Model-Based Estimation of Schistosoma haematobium–Schistosoma mansoni Co-distribution in C?te d′Ivoire

Background

Schistosoma haematobium and Schistosoma mansoni are blood flukes that cause urogenital and intestinal schistosomiasis, respectively. In Côte d′Ivoire, both species are endemic and control efforts are being scaled up. Accurate knowledge of the geographical distribution, including delineation of high-risk areas, is a central feature for spatial targeting of interventions. Thus far, model-based predictive risk mapping of schistosomiasis has relied on historical data of separate parasite species.

Methodology

We analyzed data pertaining to Schistosoma infection among school-aged children obtained from a national, cross-sectional survey conducted between November 2011 and February 2012. More than 5,000 children in 92 schools across Côte d′Ivoire participated. Bayesian geostatistical multinomial models were developed to assess infection risk, including S. haematobium–S. mansoni co-infection. The predicted risk of schistosomiasis was utilized to estimate the number of children that need preventive chemotherapy with praziquantel according to World Health Organization guidelines.

Principal Findings

We estimated that 8.9% of school-aged children in Côte d′Ivoire are affected by schistosomiasis; 5.3% with S. haematobium and 3.8% with S. mansoni. Approximately 2 million annualized praziquantel treatments would be required for preventive chemotherapy at health districts level. The distinct spatial patterns of S. haematobium and S. mansoni imply that co-infection is of little importance across the country.

Conclusions/Significance

We provide a comprehensive analysis of the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis risk among school-aged children in Côte d′Ivoire and a strong empirical basis for a rational targeting of control interventions.     

Fractional Fuzzy Simulation–Based Health Risk Assessment for Toluene Contaminated Aquifers

This article integrates a fractional fuzzy health risk approach with multi-objective analysis in consideration of multiple exposure pathways in order to assess human health risk in petroleum hydrocarbon (PH)–contaminated aquifers. A PH-contaminated groundwater aquifer located in the Pinggu District of Beijing, China, is then studied for demonstrating the applicability of the proposed approach. The results show that with more fuzzy parameters considered in the risk assessment procedure, the multi-parameter fuzzy (MPF) result is more accurate than that from the single-parameter fuzzy (SPF) model. The comparison results also indicate the advantage of the proposed fractional fuzzy approach in assessing parameter uncertainty. The non-carcinogenic risk assessment results imply that the contaminated groundwater in the study area is in the medium risk level, and remediation plans for soil and groundwater should be considered to ensure safe groundwater utilization.