Behavioural flexibility allows an invasive vertebrate to survive in a semi-arid environment

Plasticity or evolution in behavioural responses are key attributes of successful animal invasions. In northern Australia, the invasive cane toad (Rhinella marina) recently invaded semi-arid regions. Here, cane toads endure repeated daily bouts of severe desiccation and thermal stress during the long dry season (April–October). We investigated whether cane toads have shifted their ancestral nocturnal rehydration behaviour to one that exploits water resources during the day. Such a shift in hydration behaviour could increase the fitness of individual toads by reducing exposure to desiccation and thermal stress suffered during the day even within terrestrial shelters. We used a novel method (acoustic tags) to monitor the daily hydration behaviour of 20 toads at two artificial reservoirs on Camfield station, Northern Territory. Remarkably, cane toads visited reservoirs to rehydrate during daylight hours, with peaks in activity between 9.00 and 17.00. This diurnal pattern of rehydration activity contrasts with nocturnal rehydration behaviour exhibited by adult toads in their native geographical range and more mesic parts of Australia. Our results demonstrate that cane toads phase shift a key behaviour to survive in a harsh semi-arid landscape. Behavioural phase shifts have rarely been reported in invasive species but could facilitate ongoing invasion success.     

The cane toad's (Chaunus [Bufo] marinus) increasing ability to invade Australia is revealed by a dynamically updated range model

Invasive species threaten biological diversity throughout the world. Understanding the dynamics of their spread is critical to mitigating this threat. In Australia, efforts are underway to control the invasive cane toad (Chaunus [Bufo] marinus). Range models based on their native bioclimatic envelope suggest that the cane toad is nearing the end of its invasion phase. However, such models assume a conserved niche between native and invaded regions and the absence of evolution to novel habitats. Here, we develop a dynamically updated statistical model to predict the growing extent of cane toad range based on their current distribution in Australia. Results demonstrate that Australian cane toads may already have the ability to spread across an area that almost doubles their current range and that triples projections based on their native distribution. Most of the expansion in suitable habitat area has occurred in the last decade and in regions characterized by high temperatures. Increasing use of extreme habitats may indicate that novel ecological conditions have facilitated a broader realized niche or that toad populations at the invasion front have evolved greater tolerance to extreme abiotic conditions. Rapid evolution to novel habitats combined with ecological release from native enemies may explain why some species become highly successful global invaders. Predicting species ranges following invasion or climate change may often require dynamically updated range models that incorporate a broader realization of niches in the absence of natural enemies and evolution in response to novel habitats.     

Testing methods in species distribution modelling using virtual species: what have we learnt and what are we missing?

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become one of the major predictive tools in ecology. However, multiple methodological choices are required during the modelling process, some of which may have a large impact on forecasting results. In this context, virtual species, i.e. the use of simulations involving a fictitious species for which we have perfect knowledge of its occurrence–environment relationships and other relevant characteristics, have become increasingly popular to test SDMs. This approach provides for a simple virtual ecologist framework under which to test model properties, as well as the effects of the different methodological choices, and allows teasing out the effects of targeted factors with great certainty. This simplification is therefore very useful in setting up modelling standards and best practice principles. As a result, numerous virtual species studies have been published over the last decade. The topics covered include differences in performance between statistical models, effects of sample size, choice of threshold values, methods to generate pseudo‐absences for presence‐only data, among many others. These simulations have therefore already made a great contribution to setting best modelling practices in SDMs. Recent software developments have greatly facilitated the simulation of virtual species, with at least three different packages published to that effect. However, the simulation procedure has not been homogeneous, which introduces some subtleties in the interpretation of results, as well as differences across simulation packages. Here we 1) review the main contributions of the virtual species approach in the SDM literature; 2) compare the major virtual species simulation approaches and software packages; and 3) propose a set of recommendations for best simulation practices in future virtual species studies in the context of SDMs.