Modelling the Species Distribution of Flat-Headed Cats (Prionailurus planiceps), an Endangered South-East Asian Small Felid

Background

The flat-headed cat (Prionailurus planiceps) is one of the world''s least known, highly threatened felids with a distribution restricted to tropical lowland rainforests in Peninsular Thailand/Malaysia, Borneo and Sumatra. Throughout its geographic range large-scale anthropogenic transformation processes, including the pollution of fresh-water river systems and landscape fragmentation, raise concerns regarding its conservation status. Despite an increasing number of camera-trapping field surveys for carnivores in South-East Asia during the past two decades, few of these studies recorded the flat-headed cat.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In this study, we designed a predictive species distribution model using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to reassess the potential current distribution and conservation status of the flat-headed cat. Eighty-eight independent species occurrence records were gathered from field surveys, literature records, and museum collections. These current and historical records were analysed in relation to bioclimatic variables (WorldClim), altitude (SRTM) and minimum distance to larger water resources (Digital Chart of the World). Distance to water was identified as the key predictor for the occurrence of flat-headed cats (>50% explanation). In addition, we used different land cover maps (GLC2000, GlobCover and SarVision LLC for Borneo), information on protected areas and regional human population density data to extract suitable habitats from the potential distribution predicted by the MaxEnt model. Between 54% and 68% of suitable habitat has already been converted to unsuitable land cover types (e.g. croplands, plantations), and only between 10% and 20% of suitable land cover is categorised as fully protected according to the IUCN criteria. The remaining habitats are highly fragmented and only a few larger forest patches remain.

Conclusion/Significance

Based on our findings, we recommend that future conservation efforts for the flat-headed cat should focus on the identified remaining key localities and be implemented through a continuous dialogue between local stakeholders, conservationists and scientists to ensure its long-term survival. The flat-headed cat can serve as a flagship species for the protection of several other endangered species associated with the threatened tropical lowland forests and surface fresh-water sources in this region.     

Modeling the habitat suitability for deep-water gorgonian corals based on terrain variables

The coral species Paragorgia arborea and Primnoa resedaeformis are abundant and widely distributed gorgonians in North Atlantic waters. Both species add significant habitat complexity to the benthic environment, and support a host of invertebrate species. Mapping their distribution is an essential step in conservation and resource management, but challenging as a result of their remoteness. In this study, three predictive models — Ecological Niche Factor Analysis, Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production and Maximum Entropy modeling (MaxEnt) were applied to predict the distribution of species' suitable habitat across a region of Røst Reef (Norwegian margin) based on multiscale terrain variables.All three models were successful in predicting the habitat suitability for both gorgonian species across the study area, and the MaxEnt predictions were shown to outperform other predictions. All three models predicted the most suitable habitats for both species to mainly occur along the ridges and on the upper section of the large slide, suggesting both species preferentially colonize topographic highs. Jackknife tests for MaxEnt predictions highlighted the seabed aspect in relation to P. arborea distribution, and the seabed relative position (curvature) in relation to the distribution of both species. Given the vulnerability of deep-water corals to anthropogenic impacts, further comparative study over a wider study area would be particularly beneficial for the management of the species.     

Ecological analysis and environmental niche modelling of Dactylorhiza hatagirea (D. Don) Soo: A conservation approach for critically endangered medicinal orchid

The natural populations of Dactylorhiza hatagirea have been greatly affected due to incessant exploitation. As such, studies on its population attributes together with habitat suitability and environmental factors affecting its distribution are needed to be undertaken for its conservation in nature. Present study aimed at accessing an impact of anthropogenic pressure on population structure and locate suitable habitats for the conservation of this critically endangered orchid. Considerable changes in the phytosociological attributes were observed on account of the changing magnitude and extent of anthropogenic threat in their natural abode. The distribution pattern of species indicated that more than 90% of the populations exhibit substantially aggregated spatial distribution. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) distribution modelling algorithm was used to predict suitable habitat and potential area for its cultivation and reintroduction. Twenty-seven occurrence records, nineteen bioclimatic variables, altitude, and slope were used. MaxEnt map output gave the habitat suitability for this species and predicted its distribution in the North-Western Himalayas of India for approximately 616 km². Jackknifing indicated that maximum temperature of warmest month, annual mean temperature, mean temperature of the driest quarter, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter were the governing factors for its distribution and hence, presented a higher gain with respect to other variables. According to permutation importance, precipitation seasonality and mean temperature of wettest quarter shows the prominent impact on the habitat distribution. Results of AUC (area under curve) were statistically significant (0.940) and the line of predicted omission falls very close to an omission on training samples, validating a better run of the model. Response curves revealed a probable increase in the occurrence of D. hatagirea with an increase in mean temperature of the wettest quarter and maximum temperature of the warmest month contributed more than 50% to predicted habitat suitability. Direct field observations concurrent with predicted habitat suitability and google-earth images represent greater model thresholds for successful inception of the species. Together, the study proposes that the species can be conserved in or near its present-day natural habitats and is equally effective in determining the possible habitats for its cultivation and reintroduction.     

Assessing the potential suitability of forest stands as Kirengeshoma koreana habitat using MaxEnt

The objective of this study was to assess the potential suitability of forest stands of the Mt. Baek-un region in South Korea as habitats for Kirengeshoma koreana by determining essential biotic and abiotic environmental factors using MaxEnt. Presence data were collected from 16 plots in the study area, and a forest stand map was used to assess the potential suitability of the plot as habitat for the species. The topographic site characteristics were analyzed using GIS, and the terrain relief conditions were measured using the topographic position index. The site environmental factors that significantly influenced the potential suitability of the forest stands as habitats for K. koreana were chosen using MaxEnt. The results indicated that landform types, soil depth, and water and light availability at the forest floor were the factors that most strongly influenced K. koreana habitat suitability. These significant environmental factors were assessed to determine the forest stand sites that were most suitable as potential habitats for the species in the study area.     

基于MaxEnt模型的濒危观赏植物福建柏潜在适生区预测

福建柏（Fokienia hodginsii（Dunn）Henry et Thomas）是我国特有珍稀濒危植物,具有重要的经济价值和观赏价值,了解其潜在的适宜分布区将有利于科学合理地制定保护措施。本文基于84个福建柏实际分布数据和11个环境变量参数,运用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）和地理信息系统（GIS）对福建柏在中国的适生区进行预测。结果显示：（1）ROC曲线下面积AUC值为0.966,表明MaxEnt模型预测效果精准;（2）福建柏的高度适生区主要集中在武夷山、罗霄山和南岭等大型山脉,包括江南丘陵、闽浙丘陵、两广丘陵及四川盆地的局部区域;（3）刀切法（Jackknife）检测结果表明,影响福建柏分布的主要环境因子是最冷月最低温、年降水量和最干月降水量,推断夏秋季雨水对福建柏授粉的影响可能是限制其自然更新和分布的关键因素。     

Diversity and conservation of blackwater fishes in Peninsular Malaysia,particularly in the North Selangor peat swamp forest

One of the most extreme freshwater habitats in Peninsular Malaysia is the peat swamp forest, with dark-coloured and highly acidic waters. Surprisingly, little is known about blackwater fishes in Peninsular Malaysia. Until 1968, only 26 fish species were known from blackwaters throughout Peninsular Malaysia, of which only one can be regarded as stenotopic. A recent intensive survey of part of the North Selangor peat swamp forest yielded 47 species, of which 14 are probably stenotopic taxa. These include four undescribed species and several new records for western Peninsular Malaysia. These discoveries are significant in that they include the family Chaudhuriidae which until 1985, was not reported from Sundaic Southeast Asia, and the rare genus Encheloclarias which had not been encountered for over 50 years. The rapid rate of destruction of the peat swamp forest owing to development, forestry and agricultural activities must be halted or slowed significantly to enable the proper zoological surveys and studies to be conducted. Conservation plans and environmental impact assessments based on inadequate sampling and knowledge of species present is acutely dangerous. There are no longer substantial undisturbed blackwater peat swamp forests left in most of Peninsular Malaysia. Conservation of the remaining blackwater biotopes is critically important if extinction of many species, here regarded as economically valuable renewable resources, is to be prevented.     

Integrating GIS and expert judgment in a multi-criteria analysis to map and develop a habitat suitability index: A case study of large mammals on the Malayan Peninsula

Many habitat patches in tropical landscapes have become less suitable for wildlife due to an increase in anthropogenic disturbances. An index of habitat suitability based on the ecological factors that collectively determine the suitability of an organism's habitat is important for conservation planning. However, a widely accepted and comprehensive multi-criteria habitat suitability index for umbrella species is still lacking, particularly in areas where information related to the biology and ecology of the species of interest is not available. Therefore we develop preliminary habitat maps and measure the degree of habitat suitability for large mammals, focusing on four umbrella species in the State of Selangor, Peninsular Malaysia: Panthera tigris jacksoni (Malayan tiger), Tapirus indicus (Malayan tapir), Helarctos malayanus malayanus (Malayan sun bear), and Rusa unicolor cambojensis (sambar deer). The former two are endangered and the latter two are vulnerable according to the IUCN Red List. The suitability of habitat patches for each species was measured across the entire study area as well as in nine wildlife protected areas by integrating GIS data and expert opinion. Expert opinions were used as the source of information regarding the stresses faced by the species because there was insufficient information available from ground surveys.We developed an index and maps of habitat suitability for each species, which were then integrated to represent a combined index (ranging from 0 to 27) and spatially explicit maps of the area's habitat suitability for large mammals. The average large mammal habitat suitability index value of the State of Selangor (9) indicates that many habitat patches have become unsuitable for such species. Of the nine wildlife protected areas, Fraser's Hill (22), Sungai Dusun (22), and Bukit Kutu (21) are very suitable; Klang Gate (20) and Templers Park (17) are suitable; and the remaining four are unsuitable for large mammals. We assume that this preliminary habitat suitability index and mapping are useful for conservation planning of wildlife habitats at both landscape and regional scales, as well as providing an initial foundation for revision by future research with significant new information.     

Phylogeographic Pattern of the Striped Snakehead,Channa striata in Sundaland: Ancient River Connectivity,Geographical and Anthropogenic Singnatures

A phylogeographic study of an economically important freshwater fish, the striped snakehead, Channa striata in Sundaland was carried out using data from mtDNA ND5 gene target to elucidate genetic patterning. Templates obtained from a total of 280 individuals representing 24 sampling sites revealed 27 putative haplotypes. Three distinct genetic lineages were apparent; 1)northwest Peninsular Malaysia, 2)southern Peninsular, east Peninsular, Sumatra and SW (western Sarawak) and 3) central west Peninsular and Malaysian Borneo (except SW). Genetic structuring between lineages showed a significant signature of natural geographical barriers that have been acting as effective dividers between these populations. However, genetic propinquity between the SW and southern Peninsular and east Peninsular Malaysia populations was taken as evidence of ancient river connectivity between these regions during the Pleistocene epoch. Alternatively, close genetic relationship between central west Peninsular Malaysia and Malaysian Borneo populations implied anthropogenic activities. Further, haplotype sharing between the east Peninsular Malaysia and Sumatra populations revealed extraordinary migration ability of C. striata (>500 km) through ancient connectivity. These results provide interesting insights into the historical and contemporary landscape arrangement in shaping genetic patterns of freshwater species in Sundaland.     

A multigene approach to determine the molecular phylogeography of Argiope mangal and Argiope dang (Araneae: Araneidae) and their genetic relationships with the Argiope aetherea species group

The genus Argiope represents a collection of morphologically diverse orb-weaving spiders with a cosmopolitan distribution. Argiope dang and A. mangal are two Southeast Asian species that share remarkably similar morphological characteristics congeneric to the A. aetherea species group. However, in previous investigations, molecular data have not been used for the taxonomic categorization of A. dang and A. mangal. Additionally, gene flow between populations of A. dang and of A. mangal in their natural habitats has not been adequately studied. In the present study, mitochondrial 16S, COI and COII markers were used in addition to the nuclear H3 gene to elucidate the relationships between A. dang, A. mangal and various congeners within the A. aetherea species group. The haplotype diversity of A. dang and A. mangal was also investigated. Based on our molecular results, the A. aetherea species group was composed of three genetic lineages: (i) [A. dang - (A. radon - A. picta)] - [A. modesta - A. aetherea]; (ii) A. mangal; and (iii) [(A. jinghongensis - A. aetheroides) - A. versicolor]. Haplotype analyses revealed a lack of gene flow between A. mangal populations in Peninsular Malaysia and those in Singapore. Populations of A. dang showed isolation-by-distance throughout the range of the species from Laos to Singapore. In this study for the first time, genetic data of A. mangal were reported for specimens collected from its type locality, Singapore. Four new distribution records were also reported: A. dang in Peninsular Malaysia and Cambodia; A. modesta in Bali, Indonesia; and A. jinghongensis in Peninsular Malaysia.     

气候变化对黄腹角雉潜在栖息地的影响

气候变化直接影响物种赖以生存的栖息地环境条件,进而影响物种的分布、数量和存活率。基于优化后最大熵(MaxEnt)模型预测气候变化下黄腹角雉(Tragopan caboti)过去、当前、未来时期的潜在栖息地格局。结果表明,降水量、温度、海拔是栖息地的主要影响因子。当前时期适宜栖息地面积较过去时期下降24.69%;未来2041—2060年间,共享社会经济路径(SSP)3-7.0与SSP5-8.5情景下黄腹角雉适宜栖息地面积较当前时期分别下降55.19%、58.10%。浙江、江西和福建是当前以及未来黄腹角雉核心适宜栖息地,适宜栖息地面积呈现下降的趋势,并往高纬度区域移动。     

Predicting current and future distributions of Mentha pulegium L. in Tunisia under climate change conditions,using the MaxEnt model

Climate change and human activities have caused the degeneration of the natural habitats of medicinal plants. Mentha pulegium L. is one of the most common medicinal plants in Tunisia that features high economic and ecological values. Predicting species' suitable habitats, through modeling, has evolved as a useful tool for the assessment of resource conservation to protect medicinal plants. Herein, we used MaxEnt model to predict current and future distributions of M. pulegium under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. MaxEnt modeling was in the “Excellent” category since all the AUCs were above 0.9. Results showed that high and moderate suitable habitats for the current distribution of M. pulegium encompassed ca. 9929 km² and 16,423 km², respectively. These areas are mainly located in North Tunisia. Precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19) was identified as the most critical factor shaping M. pulegium distribution. Compared to the current distribution, the highly and moderately suitable areas for M. pulegium under the two RCPs (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) would decrease in the 2050s and 2070s. The model projected a shift of the suitable area from Northeastward to Center-eastward. These results may provide a useful tool for developing adaptive management strategies to enhance M. pulegium protection and sustainable utilization in the context of global climate change.     

Occurrence of two closely related ricefishes, Javanese medaka (Oryzias javanicus) and Indian medaka (O. dancena) at sites with different salinity in Peninsular Malaysia

Among ricefishes of the genus Oryzias, the Javanese medaka (O. javanicus) and the Indian medaka (O. dancena) are highly adaptable to seawater. Although wide distribution of the two species in the brackish waters of South and South-East Asia has been reported, their habitat preference remains unknown. We surveyed 12 sites in five estuarial areas of the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia from Kuala Gula to Tanjung Piai. Both species were found in all five areas, suggesting their distribution throughout the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia. This is the southernmost-recorded appearance of O. dancena, to the best of our knowledge. However, the habitats of the two species were essentially separated: of the 12 surveyed sites, the species were found in co-existence at only two sites, and one or the other species was found alone at the remaining 10 sites. We compared temperature, salinity, pH, and dissolved oxygen (DO) at the sampling sites and found that the habitat of O. javanicus is with higher salinity and DO. The salinity and DO at the sites of co-existence are near the lowest values found at the O. javanicus-only sites, and the highest values at the O. dancena-only sites. These results suggest that O. javanicus and O. dancena habitats are essentially separated; the former prefers hyperosmotic conditions while the latter prefers hypoosmotic conditions, and the latter may be more tolerant of hypoxia. The two sites of co-existence are points of contact between the species’ separate distribution areas.     

Conservation of some rare and endangered plants from Peninsular Malaysia

Malaysia has approximately 15,000 species of vascular plants. Its flora is distributed between two major geographical regions; Peninsular Malaysia on mainland Asia and the states of Sabah and Sarawak on the island of Borneo. Peninsular Malaysia has over 8,300 plant species and Sabah and Sarawak in a recent estimate have about 12,000 species. Total species endemism for Peninsular Malaysia is about 30%; its tree endemism is 26.3%. For Sabah and Sarawak, the endemism level is higher, recently revised figures gave a tree species endemism of 42.1%. Malaysia has recently published its national strategy for plant conservation, which now forms the basis of conservation activities for the country. Since 2004, we have been running a project entitled “Conservation Monitoring of Rare and Threatened Plants of Peninsular Malaysia”, in which conservation status assessment is scored for a number of families. Results of the assessment of 458 taxa included 46.1% in some threat category. Detailed conservation studies are in progress for 33 species of threatened plants. Initial work on these species include spatial distribution studies at regional level based on herbarium records, and at a more local level, population studies to determine demography of populations. Regular phenological observations were also made for many of the species.     

Preventing extinction and improving conservation status of Mesua assamica (King & Prain) Kosterm. - An endangered plant of Assam,India

Mesua assamica (King & Prain) Kosterm., commonly known as “Sia- Nahar” in Assamese is an evergreen tree belonging to family Calophyllaceae. The wood of this plant is highly preferred as fuel. However, the plant also records its significance in bearing several pharmaceutical potential components along with several traditional practices by the local people such as fish poisoning, etc. Large scale felling of the tree and clearance of habitats of the plant for extension of arable land for tea plantations and other agricultural activities, the plant has been disappearing at an alarming rate from its natural habitat and has been recorded as endangered to the area. Therefore, conservation of this potential medicinal plant with proper scientific investigation to prevent extinction in its wild habitat is urgently needed. Seed germination under natural conditions was found to be very poor for which a macropropagation protocol was standardized; saplings were raised in experimental nursery and reinforced to locations where the population size is very small in relation to other associated species. Those suitable wild habitats for reinforcement were selected by Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) distribution modelling algorithm developed using environmental parameters and locality data in the natural range of the species. The model predicts the suitable habitats for its reintroduction to ensure its perpetuity. A total of 1000 saplings of M. assamica were reinforced to the field and the rate of survivability was measured over a period of 12 months at an interval of 60 days that revealed 75.5% survivability of the reinforced saplings. This study has proved as an effective method for improving the conservation status of the plant.     

The shared preference niche of sympatric Asiatic black bears and sun bears in a tropical forest mosaic

Background

Ecologically similar species often coexist by partitioning use of habitats or resources. Such partitioning can occur through divergent or shared niches. We investigated overlap in habitat use and spatial co-occurrence by sympatric Asiatic black bears and sun bears in three habitats in Thailand, and thereby assessed which niche model best accounts for their coexistence.

Methods/Principal Findings

We used density of species-specific signs to assess habitat use. Signs of both bear species occurred in all three habitats, and on >60% of sampling transects. Both species fed mostly on fruit; insect feeding signs were uncommon, and were mostly from sun bears. Significant differences in habitat use occurred only in montane forest, the habitat in which fruit was most abundant; incidence of black bear sign there was six times higher than that of sun bears. Habitat use was similar between the two species in the other habitats, which comprised 85% of the area. Of 10 habitat attributes examined, fruiting tree density was the best predictor of occurrence for both species. Models that included interspecific competition (fresh foraging activity of the other species) were less supported than the top models without competition.

Conclusions/Significance

Bear species co-occurrence at both coarse and fine spatial scales and use of the same resources (fruit trees) indicated common niche preferences. However, their habitat use differed in ways expected from their physical differences: larger black bears dominated in the most fruit-rich habitat, and smaller sun bears used less-preferred insects. These results indicate broadly overlapping fundamental niches combined with asymmetric competition—features consistent with the concept of shared preference niches. This model of the niche has received little attention in ecology, but appears to be relatively common in nature.     

Ranging behaviour,activity, habitat use,and morphology of the Malay civet (Viverra tangalunga) on Peninsular Malaysia and comparison with studies on Borneo and Sulawesi

The Malay civet (Viverra tangalunga) is found throughout Southeast Asia, but there have been very few studies on its natural history and ecology. We present here the results from the first radio telemetry study of this species on Peninsular Malaysia and compared our findings to similar studies on Borneo and Sulawesi. From August 2004 to August 2006, we captured 11 Malay civets in Krau Wildlife Reserve and radio-tracked seven adults (four males and three females). The mean weight of males (6.6 kg) was significantly higher than females (5.8 kg). Both sexes on Peninsular Malaysia were larger than their counterparts on Borneo and Sulawesi. There was no significant difference between the mean sizes of male and female home ranges on Peninsular Malaysia; the mean home range size for both sexes was 143 ha (95% MCP), which was larger than the mean range size recorded on Borneo and Sulawesi. We found that the Malay civet is a solitary, territorial species on Peninsular Malaysia: mean range overlap was 15% for males and 0% for females, and the home range of each male overlapped one or two females. Malay civets were mainly nocturnal, with some periods of rest during the night; daytime rest sites were within dense ground cover. Lowland forest is an essential habitat for this species; although Malay civets were sometimes found in plantations, they did not venture far from forested habitat.     

Are social media reports useful for assessing small ape occurrence? A pilot study from Peninsular Malaysia

Citizen science-based research has been used effectively to estimate animal abundance and breeding patterns, to monitor animal movement, and for biodiversity conservation and education. Here, we evaluate the feasibility of using social media observations to assess the distribution of small apes in Peninsular Malaysia. We searched for reports of small ape observations in Peninsular Malaysia on social media (e.g., blogs, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, YouTube, iNaturalist, etc.), and also used online, radio, print messaging, and word of mouth to invite citizen scientists such as birders, amateur naturalists, hikers, and other members of the public to provide information about small ape observations made during their activities. These reports provided new information about the occurrence of all three species of small apes (Hylobates agilis, Hylobates lar, and Symphalangus syndactylus) in Peninsular Malaysia. Social media users reported observations of small apes in almost every state. Despite the fact that small apes are believed to occur primarily in the interior of large forested areas, most observations were from fairly small (<100 km²) forests near areas of high traffic and high human population (roads and urban areas). This suggests that most outdoor enthusiasts primarily visit well-traveled and easily accessible areas, which results in biased sampling if only incidental observations reported on social media are used. A more targeted approach specifically soliciting reports from citizen scientists visiting large, less-accessible forests may result in better sampling in these habitats. Social media reports indicated the presence of small apes in at least six habitats where they had not been previously reported. We verified the reported data based on whether reports included a date, location, and uploaded photographs, videos and/or audio recordings. Well-publicized citizen science programs may also build awareness and enthusiasm about the conservation of vulnerable wildlife species.     

气候变化下桃儿七潜在地理分布的预测

桃儿七(Sinopodophyllum hexandrum)为小檗科多年生草本植物, 是我国濒危传统藏药, 预测气候变化对该物种分布范围的影响对于其保护和资源可持续利用具有重要意义。该文利用获得的桃儿七136个地理分布记录和21个气候环境图层, 通过MaxEnt模型分析桃儿七在我国西部七省的潜在地理分布, 并基于该模型预测政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布的SRES-A1B、SRES-A2和SRES-B1气候情景下21世纪20、50和80年代桃儿七分布范围。结果表明: 最热季平均温度、年降水量、温度季节性变动系数和等温性是影响桃儿七分布的主要气候因子; 在当前气候条件下, 桃儿七适宜的生境面积占研究区总面积的11.71%, 主要集中在青藏高原东缘的四川、甘肃、青海境内次生植被丰富、地形复杂的高海拔地区, 低适宜生境与不适宜生境分别占研究区总面积的15.86%与72.43%。由模型预测可知, 在SRES-A1B、SRES-A2和SRES-B1三种情景下, 桃儿七在研究区低适宜生境的数量相对变化较小, 在适宜生境先大幅减少后又缓慢增加。研究结果同时表明, 在未来气候变化条件下, 桃儿七的适宜生境平均海拔将逐渐升高, 范围以及几何重心极有可能先向北移, 然后再向西延伸至青藏高原内部较高海拔的山区。     

Potential geographical distribution and environmental explanations of rare and endangered plant species through combined modeling: A case study of Northwest Yunnan,China

In recent decades, due to the effect of climate change and the interference of human activities, the species habitat index has fallen by 2%. Studying on the geographical distribution pattern and predicting the potential geographical distribution of species are of great significance for developing scientific and effective biodiversity conservation strategies. Plenty of rare and endangered species that need immediate conservation are distributed in Northwest Yunnan. In this regard, this research is conducted in the purpose of predicting the potential geographical distribution of 25 rare and endangered plant species in Northwest Yunnan and analyzing the explanation capabilities of various environmental factors on the potential geographical distribution patterns of these species. Initially, the ecological niche model MaxEnt was employed to predict the potential geographical distribution of target species. Following that, the superposition method was applied to obtain the potential geographical distribution pattern of species richness on the spatial scale of the ecological niche model with a resolution of 0.05° × 0.05°. Ultimately, geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was adopted to investigate the explanation capabilities of various environmental parameters on the potential distribution patterns. The research results showed that the average value of the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of each species was between 0.80 and 1.00, which indicated that the simulation accuracy of the MaxEnt model for each species was good or excellent. On the whole, the potential distribution area for each species was relatively concentrated and mainly distributed in the central‐western, central‐eastern and northern regions of Northwest Yunnan. In addition, the potential distribution areas of these species were between 826.33 km² and 44,963.53 km². In addition, the annual precipitation (Bio12), precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio19), and population density (Pop) made a greater contribution to the species distribution model, and their contribution values were 25.92%, 15.86%, and 17.95%, respectively. Moreover, the goodness‐of‐fit R ² and AIC value of the water model were 0.88 and 7,703.82, respectively, which indicated the water factor largely influenced the potential distribution of these species. These results would contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the potential geographical distribution pattern and the distribution of suitable habitats of some rare and endangered plant species in Northwest Yunnan and would be helpful for implementing long‐term conservation and reintroduction for these species.     

Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Major Native Non-Food Bioenergy Plants in China

Planting non-food bioenergy crops on marginal lands is an alternative bioenergy development solution in China. Native non-food bioenergy plants are also considered to be a wise choice to reduce the threat of invasive plants. In this study, the impacts of climate change (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a for 2080) on the potential distribution of nine non-food bioenergy plants native to China (viz., Pistacia chinensis, Cornus wilsoniana, Xanthoceras sorbifolia, Vernicia fordii, Sapium sebiferum, Miscanthus sinensis, M. floridulus, M. sacchariflorus and Arundo donax) were analyzed using a MaxEnt species distribution model. The suitable habitats of the nine non-food plants were distributed in the regions east of the Mongolian Plateau and the Tibetan Plateau, where the arable land is primarily used for food production. Thus, the large-scale cultivation of those plants for energy production will have to rely on the marginal lands. The variables of “precipitation of the warmest quarter” and “annual mean temperature” were the most important bioclimatic variables for most of the nine plants according to the MaxEnt modeling results. Global warming in coming decades may result in a decrease in the extent of suitable habitat in the tropics but will have little effect on the total distribution area of each plant. The results indicated that it will be possible to grow these plants on marginal lands within these areas in the future. This work should be beneficial for the domestication and cultivation of those bioenergy plants and should facilitate land-use planning for bioenergy crops in China.