Who are we sampling? Apparent survival differs between methods in a secretive species

Survival is a fundamental parameter in population dynamics with increasing importance in the management and conservation strategies of wildlife populations. Survival probability in vertebrates is usually estimated by live‐encounter data obtained by means of physical mark–capture–recapture protocols. Non‐invasive acoustic marking relying on individual‐specific features of signals has been alternatively applied as a marking technique, especially in secretive species. Nevertheless, to date no research has compared survival rate estimates obtained by acoustic and physical marking. We estimated half‐yearly and annual survival and recapture rates of a secretive and threatened passerine, the Dupont's lark Chersophilus duponti, using two separate live‐encounter data sets of males collected simultaneously by physical and acoustic marking in the same study area. The separate analysis of both methods led to different model structures, since transient individuals had to be accounted for in the acoustic marking but not in the physical marking data set. Furthermore, while reencounter probabilities did not differ between methods, survival estimates employing physical marking were lower than those obtained acoustically, especially between the postbreeding and the breeding period when the apparent survival of colour‐banded birds was twice as low as for acoustic marking. The combination of marking methods suggested the existence of different subsets of individuals differentially sampled within the population: whereas colour‐banded males seemed to represent the territorial fraction of the population, both resident and floater individuals were probably detected by acoustic marking. Using traditional mark–recapture methods exclusively could have misled our estimates of survival rates, potentially affecting prospective predictions of population dynamics. Acoustic marking has been poorly applied in mark–recapture studies, but might be a powerful complement to obtain accurate estimates of fundamental demographic parameters such as survival and dispersal.     

Relative influence of fisheries and climate on the demography of four albatross species

Worldwide ecosystems are modified by human activities and climate change. To be able to predict future changes, it is necessary to understand their respective role on population dynamics. Among the most threatened species are top predators because of their position in the food web. Albatross populations are potentially affected by both human activities, especially longline fisheries, and climatic fluctuations. Based on long‐term data (1985–2006), we conducted through a comparative approach a demographic analysis (adult survival and breeding success) on four albatross species breeding on the Indian Ocean sub‐Antarctic Islands to assess the relative impact of climate and fisheries during and outside the breeding season. The study revealed that adult survival of almost all species was not affected by climate, and therefore probably canalized against climatic variations, but was negatively affected by tuna longlining effort in three species. Breeding success was affected by climate, with contrasted effects between species, with Southern Oscillation Index having an impact on all species but one. Differences in demographic responses depended on the foraging zone and season. In order to predict population trajectories of seabirds such as albatrosses, our results show the importance of assessing the relative influence of fishing and climate impacts on demography.     

Apparent survival and return rate of breeders in the southern temperate White‐rumped Swallow Tachycineta leucorrhoa

Life‐histories and demographic parameters of southern temperate bird species have been little studied. We estimated return rates between years and sexes, and adult apparent survival and recapture probabilities with mark–recapture data on White‐rumped Swallows and found a lower return rate of unsuccessful females. There was little support for influences of sex or year on survival rates. The estimates were equivalent to the lowest value reported for a northern congener, in contrast to the prediction of geographical variation under life‐history theory.     

On the sustainability of a reintroduced Crested Ibis population in Qinling Mountains,Shaanxi, Central China

Reintroduction projects aim to reestablish a self‐sustaining population of an endangered species within its historical range. Adequate post‐release monitoring by gathering demographic data is important to evaluate the success of a reintroduction. Survival and reproduction rates of a reintroduced population can be compared with a self‐sustaining wild population to evaluate the success of a reintroduction. In early 2007, Nipponia nippon (Crested Ibis) was reintroduced into the Qinling Mountains (Shaanxi, Central China). In this study, we attempt to evaluate the demographic status of the reintroduced population. Age‐specific survival rates of 56 released adults and 77 wild‐born fledglings were estimated using mark‐recapture data obtained from 2007 to 2014. Survival rates for the yearlings (0.599, with 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.467–0.719) were lower than the estimates from a wild population in Yangxian County, but the survival rates of the adults (0.678, with 95% CI: 0.603–0.745) were similar. The number of breeding pairs gradually increased since 2008, although breeding success (52.5%) was somewhat less than that of the wild population (67.6%). The stochastic estimation of population growth rate (1.084 with 95% CI: 1.069–1.098) and population size (5‐fold increase) estimated from an age‐classified Leslie matrix indicate that the reintroduced population of the Crested Ibis is more likely in regulation phase over the next 25 years. We conclude that the reintroduction of the Crested Ibis in Qinling Mountains has great promise, and progress toward a self‐sustaining population has been made under some interventions. Governments, local communities, and scientists need to facilitate habitat restoration for the long‐term survival of this endangered species.     

A comprehensive demographic assessment of the endangered Fiordland crested penguin Eudyptes pachyrhynchus

ABSTRACT

Many species of Eudyptes penguin have shown substantial population declines and in response, there have been efforts to identify the key demographic parameters. Here, we present the demographic parameters of one of the least well known and the least abundant species of crested penguin, the endangered Fiordland crested penguin Eudyptes pachyrhynchus. A population study incorporating mark–recapture, nest occupancy and breeding success was conducted over 16 years at several sites in the northern half of the range of the species. Survival probabilities were calculated using standard Cormack–Jolly–Seber models and the Burnham Live and Dead model. The annual probability of true survival for banded birds and apparent survival for birds with transponders were both estimated at 89% during their adult years, which is similar to that reported for Eudyptes penguin species inhabiting more southerly latitudes. Annual juvenile survival was assessed for Fiordland crested penguins until their first return at 77%. The mean breeding success (0.61?±?0.02 chicks/pair) was higher than is observed for other crested penguin species, except the southern rockhopper penguin, which may be due to having lower A-egg ejection rates and higher rates of fledging two chicks per pair. Breeding success was related to the niche of predators present.     

Geographic variation and environmental correlates of apparent survival rates in adult tree swallows Tachycineta bicolor

Determining demographic rates in wild animal populations and understanding why rates vary are important challenges in population ecology and conservation. Whereas reproductive success is reported frequently for many songbird species, there are relatively few corresponding estimates of annual survival for widespread populations of the same migratory species. We incorporated mark–recapture data into Cormack–Jolly–Seber models to estimate annual apparent survival and recapture rates of adult male and female tree swallows Tachycineta bicolor in eight local breeding populations across North America for periods of 7–33 yr. We found strong site‐specific and annual variation in apparent survival rates of adult swallows, and evidence of higher survival or site fidelity among males than females. There were no strong associations between putative overwintering region and survival. Strength and patterns of winter climate‐apparent survival relationships varied across four sites monitored for >15 yr; at one site, spring pond conditions, local spring precipitation and, to a lesser extent, winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index were credible predictors of annual apparent survival. Further work is needed to evaluate how survival is related to environmental conditions throughout the annual cycle and how these factors affect population dynamics of swallows and related species of conservation concern.     

Relationships between sea ice concentration, sea surface temperature and demographic traits of thin-billed prions

Understanding the effects of environmental variations on ecosystems is a major topic in ecology. In this study, we estimated demographic parameters of a seabird population, the thin-billed prion (Pachyptila belcheri) at Kerguelen Islands, and then tested for relationships with inter-annual variations of climatic indices, using long-term capture–recapture data. The annual adult survival probability was 0.825±0.009 and the breeding success was 0.519±0.090. Sea surface temperature anomalies were negatively related with breeding success. By contrast, winter sea ice concentration in the Antarctic seasonal ice zone seemed to negatively influence adult survival. This suggests a connection between sub-Antarctic and Antarctic ecosystems. The actual context of large climatic changes in the Austral Ocean seems to explain a large part of the decreasing trends observed for both the breeding success and the adult survival. Thus, a decrease of the population size of thin-billed prions at Kerguelen could be strongly suspected in the near future.     

Spatial patterns in age- and colony-specific survival in a long-lived seabird across 14 contrasting colonies

Demographic rates such as recruitment and survival probability can vary considerably among populations of the same species due to variation in underlying environmental processes. If environmental processes are spatially correlated, nearby populations are expected to have more similar demographic rates than those further apart. Breeding populations and foraging ranges are spatially segregated in colonial seabirds, making them ideal for studying spatial patterns in demographic rates and their effects on local population dynamics. Here we explored variation in age-dependent survival probabilities across 14 colonies of Herring Gulls Larus argentatus breeding along the Dutch North Sea coast. We used long-term mark–recapture data of marked fledglings to estimate survival, and estimated spatial autocorrelation of survival probabilities. We assessed whether survival until recruitment age or until 10 years old (close to their expected lifespan) explained variation in population trajectories of each colony. Juvenile and adult survival showed a strong, but different, north-to-south gradient in survival probability, with lower juvenile but higher adult survival in northern colonies than southern colonies, whereas the spatial pattern of immature survival was less distinct. Neither recruitment nor the proportion of 10-year-old adults alive predicted whether a colony collapsed, declined, remained stable or increased. The distinct spatial pattern in survival suggests variation in regional food availability, which do not seem to drive local population dynamics. The absence of a link between survival and colony trajectories implies that connectivity between populations plays an important role affecting population dynamics.     

Density‐dependent survival and recruitment in a long‐distance Palaearctic migrant,the Sand Martin Riparia riparia

Long‐term studies can provide powerful insights into the relative importance of different demographic and environmental factors determining avian population dynamics. Here we use 23 years of capture–mark–recapture data (1981–2003) to estimate recruitment and survival rates for a Sand Martin Riparia riparia population in Cheshire, NW England. Inter‐annual variation in recruitment and adult survival was positively related to rainfall in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds, but unrelated to weather conditions on the breeding grounds. After allowing for the effects of African rainfall, both demographic rates were negatively density‐dependent: adult survival was related to the size of the western European Sand Martin population (probably reflecting competition for resources in the shared wintering grounds) while recruitment was related to the size of the local study population in Cheshire (potentially reflecting competition for nesting sites or food). Local population size was more sensitive to variation in adult survival than to variation in recruitment, and an increase in population size after 1995 was driven mainly by the impact of more favourable conditions in the African wintering grounds on survival rates of adults. Overwinter survival in this long‐distance Palaearctic migrant is determined partly by the amount of suitable wetland foraging habitat in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds (which is limited by the extent of summer rainfall) and partly by the number of birds exploiting that habitat.     

Age‐dependent breeding dispersal and adult survival within a metapopulation of Common Terns Sterna hirundo

Dispersal is increasingly recognized as a process of fundamental importance in population dynamics and other aspects of biology. Concurrently, interest in age‐dependent effects on survival, including actuarial senescence, has increased, especially in studies of long‐lived seabirds. Nevertheless, datasets necessary for studying dispersal and age‐dependent effects are few, as these require simultaneous data collection at two or more sites over many years. We conducted a 22‐year capture‐mark‐recapture study of Common Terns Sterna hirundo at three breeding colonies 10–26 km apart in Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, USA. All birds in the study were of known age (range 2–28 years, median 7 years, n = 3290) and 77% were of known sex. Estimates of adult recapture, survival and breeding dispersal rates were obtained for all age‐classes from 2 to 20 years. The model that acquired 100% of the QAIC_c (Akaike's Information Criterion adjusted for small sample size and overdispersion) weight in our analysis included age‐specificity in all parameters but no relationship with sex. Our study may be the first to demonstrate age‐specificity in recapture, survival and breeding dispersal rates simultaneously, using a single model. Annual rates of breeding dispersal ranged from <0.01 to 0.27, with a population‐weighted mean of 0.065; they decreased with increasing distance between colony sites and, unexpectedly, increased with age. Breeding dispersal did not increase consistently after years with predation on adults or after an attempt to displace birds from an oiled site. Survival rates did not vary among sites or years. Annual adult survival increased from 0.80 in 2‐year‐old birds to a maximum of approximately 0.88 around age 8 years and then declined to 0.76 at age 20 years, yielding strong evidence for actuarial senescence. The peak annual survival rate of 0.88 is at the low end of other estimates for Common Tern and in the lower part of the range recorded for other terns, but total numbers in the three colonies increased seven‐fold during the study. This was part of a slower increase in the regional population, with net immigration into the study colonies. Our results demonstrate the biological significance of breeding dispersal in local population dynamics and age‐related effects on survival and dispersal from a metapopulation of a long‐lived seabird.     

A combined inverse method and multivariate approach for exploring population trends of Florida manatees

Given the expense and time required to monitor marine mammal populations effectively, approaches that fully exploit the resulting data certainly are warranted. We employed a two‐step modeling approach to estimate key demographic parameters, including immigration, from aerial surveys of manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) in the Northwest management unit of Florida. Abundances of adults and calves were predicted by multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) models, after accounting for heterogeneous detection rates caused by variable environmental conditions. The resulting predictions were incorporated into a stage‐structured, deterministic model that used an inverse method to estimate parameters with and without immigration. The model without immigration estimated mean survival probabilities of 0.966, 0.923, and 0.794 for adults, subadults and calves, respectively, with a per capita reproductive rate of 0.135. These parameter estimates yielded an overall mean population growth rate of approximately 1.037, which is comparable to rates from mark‐recapture studies. When we added an immigration term that accounted for the greater slope in adult counts since 1999, as identified by the MARS model, the estimated per capita reproductive rate was 0.122, with survival probabilities for adults, subadults and calves of 0.926, 0.920, and 0.833, respectively. These rates were coupled with an estimated mean winter immigration rate corresponding to roughly 5.2% of the adult and subadult population. In this latter scenario, the number of manatees in the core population of the Northwest management unit was predicted to remain constant, with a population growth rate near one, and additional manatees counted during aerial surveys were deemed to be immigrants. While further studies could certainly expound on the potential effects of migrants on population indices, we present this first published immigration estimate for wintering manatees in northwest Florida.     

Combining capture–recapture data and known ages allows estimation of age‐dependent survival rates

In many animal populations, demographic parameters such as survival and recruitment vary markedly with age, as do parameters related to sampling, such as capture probability. Failing to account for such variation can result in biased estimates of population‐level rates. However, estimating age‐dependent survival rates can be challenging because ages of individuals are rarely known unless tagging is done at birth. For many species, it is possible to infer age based on size. In capture–recapture studies of such species, it is possible to use a growth model to infer the age at first capture of individuals. We show how to build estimates of age‐dependent survival into a capture–mark–recapture model based on data obtained in a capture–recapture study. We first show how estimates of age based on length increments closely match those based on definitive aging methods. In simulated analyses, we show that both individual ages and age‐dependent survival rates estimated from simulated data closely match true values. With our approach, we are able to estimate the age‐specific apparent survival rates of Murray and trout cod in the Murray River, Australia. Our model structure provides a flexible framework within which to investigate various aspects of how survival varies with age and will have extensions within a wide range of ecological studies of animals where age can be estimated based on size.     

Survival estimates of adult Sooty Terns Sterna fuscata from Bird Island, Seychelles

Sooty Tern Sterna fuscata populations on the Seychelles Islands have been exploited for human consumption of their eggs for at least the last 75 years. This has led to concern about possible declines in these populations. To address these concerns, the Seychelles Government has instituted a research and management plan to ensure the sustainability of the egg harvest. The harvest model, upon which current harvest regulations are based, was constructed with an assumed adult survival rate because there are no published Sooty Tern survival rate estimates. We fill this knowledge gap and address this assumption. We estimated adult Sooty Tern survival to be 0.91 ( SÊ  = 0.01), which was close to the estimate used in the model. This estimate is also comparable with other seabird survival estimates. In the future this estimate could be improved with higher recapture rates. In addition, further advances in models for estimating probabilities of age at first breeding, prebreeder survival and population growth should be used to best effect, by making appropriate improvements to the ring search protocol, to provide further feedback to the management programme.     

Mark–recapture may reveal more about ecology than about population trends: Demography of a threatened ghost bat (Macroderma gigas) population

Since European settlement in Australia, the geographical range of ghost bats (Macroderma gigas) has contracted northwards. Ghost bats are thought to occur in disjunct populations with little interpopulation migration, raising concerns over the current status and future viability of the southernmost colony, which has also been threatened by mining activity. To address these concerns, demographic parameters of the southernmost colony were estimated from a mark–recapture study conducted during 1975–1981. Female bats gave birth to a single young in late spring, but only 40% (22–70%, 95% CI) of females bred in their second year, increasing to 93% (87–97%, 95% CI) for females ≥ 2 years old. Sixty‐five percent of juveniles caught were female. Annual adult survival ranged between 0.57–0.77 for females and 0.43–0.66 for males, and was lowest over winter–spring and greatest in autumn–winter. Juvenile survival for the first year ranged between 0.35–0.46 for females and 0.29–0.42 for males. Adult survival varied among seasons, was negatively associated with rainfall, but was not associated with temperature beyond being lower in late winter. Poor survival may result from the inferior daytime roosts that bats must use if water seepage forces them to leave their normal roosts. Although these age‐specific rates of fecundity and survival suggested a declining population, mark–recapture estimates of the population trend indicated stability over the study period. Counts at daytime roosts also suggested a population decline, but were considered unreliable because of an increasing tendency of bats to avoid detection. It is therefore likely that some assumptions in estimating survival were violated. These results provide a caution against the uncritical use of population projections derived from mark–recapture estimates of demographic parameters, and the use of untested indices as the basis for conservation decisions.     

Population dynamics of an expanding passerine at the distribution margin

Individuals may be maladapted to novel environments at the species’ distribution margin. We investigated population dynamics in a marginal habitat where reproduction has been proven poor. Survival, population growth rate (λ) and its components, breeding and natal dispersal were studied in great tits Parus major breeding at the northern margin of its distribution in northern Finland. We used long term capture–mark–recapture data sets. Study area size and population density were used to explain adult survival rates. The average annual estimates of adult survival rose from 0.371 to 0.388 between the periods of 1971–1984 and 1999–2009. The estimates are slightly lower than estimates of small passerines in Europe. Low local survival rate of fledglings (0.050–0.055) probably reflects intensified emigration from this low quality area. Temporal variation in λ was large (0.498–1.856). Despite of low adult survival and recruitment rates, the mean estimates of λ (1.008 and 1.033) indicate an overall stability in the population size. Indeed, our results suggest that the immigration has an important role in the population dynamics of northern great tits. Thus the population is demographically and genetically dependent on core habitats which may cause adaptive problems due to intensive gene flow. Given those limitations, options for evolution of local adaptations in northern distribution margins are discussed.     

Patterns and processes in shorebird survival rates: a global review

Changes in demographic rates underpin changes in population size, and understanding demographic rates can greatly aid the design and development of strategies to maintain populations in the face of environmental changes. However, acquiring estimates of demographic parameters at relevant spatial scales is difficult. Measures of annual survival rates can be particularly challenging to obtain because large‐scale, long‐term tracking of individuals is difficult and the resulting data contain many inherent biases. In recent years, advances in both tracking and analytical techniques have meant that, for some taxonomic groups, sufficient numbers of survival estimates are available to allow variation within and among species to be explored. Here we review published estimates of annual adult survival rates in shorebird species across the globe, and construct models to explore the phylogenetic, geographical, seasonal and sex‐based variation in survival rates. Models of 295 survival estimates from 56 species show that survival rates calculated from recoveries of dead individuals or from return rates of marked individuals are significantly lower than estimates from mark–recapture models. Survival rates also vary across flyways, largely as a consequence of differences in the genera that have been studied and the analytical methods used, with published estimates from the Americas and from smaller shorebirds (Actitis, Calidris and Charadrius spp.) tending to be underestimated. By incorporating the analytical method used to generate each estimate within a mixed model framework, we provide method‐corrected species‐specific and genus‐specific adult annual survival estimates for 52 species of 15 genera.     

State uncertainty models and mark‐resight models for understanding non‐breeding site use by Piping Plovers

Conservation of beach‐nesting medium‐distance migrants has focused on breeding areas because protection of nests is more tractable than protection of non‐breeding habitat. As breeding ground management has encountered diminishing returns, interest in understanding threats in non‐breeding areas has increased. However, robust estimates of non‐breeding demographic rates and abundance are generally lacking, hindering the study of limiting factors. Estimating such rates is made more difficult by complex population dynamics at non‐breeding sites. In South Carolina, endangered Piping Plovers Charadrius melodus start arriving in July and some depart prior to December (the autumn‐only population) while others remain through at least March (the wintering population). State uncertainty capture‐mark‐recapture models provide a means for estimating vital rates for such co‐occurring populations. We estimated the proportion of the population entering the study area per survey (entry probability) and proportion remaining per survey (persistence rate) for both populations during autumn, and abundance of the wintering population, at four sites in South Carolina in 2006/7 and 2007/8, taking advantage of birds previously colour‐ringed on the breeding grounds. We made fairly precise estimates of entry and persistence rates with small sample sizes. Cumulative entry probability was ~50% by the end of July and reached 95% for both populations by October. Estimated stopover duration for birds in the autumn‐only population was 35 days in year 1 and 42 days in year 2. We estimated a wintering super‐population size of 71 ± 16 se birds in the first year and 75 ± 16 in the second. If ringing programmes on the breeding grounds continue, standardized resighting surveys in the non‐breeding period and mark‐recapture models can provide robust estimates of entry and persistence rates and abundance. Habitat protection intended to benefit non‐breeding Piping Plovers at our coastal sites should be in effect by late summer, as many birds are resident from July to the end of winter.     

Demography of the Heike firefly Luciola lateralis (Coleoptera: Lampyridae), a representative species of Japan’s traditional agricultural landscape

Populations of the Heike firefly, Luciola lateralis, a representative species of Japan’s traditional agricultural landscape (known as satoyama), have recently experienced rapid declines in many areas of Japan. Owing to the popularity of this firefly, many local communities have increased conservation efforts through the restoration of aquatic habitat complexes in satoyama. To provide fundamental parameters to predict population dynamics of the firefly, we conducted a mark–recapture study in restored paddy fields, and we estimated adult population parameters such as population size, survival, recruitment, sex ratio, and body size. We found that capture probability generally decreased as the season advanced, probably because of seasonal changes in detectability and/or firefly behavior. The daily survival rate of adults decreased over the season and may be related to a seasonal decline in adult body size. Adult population exhibited a highly male-biased sex ratio. Firefly abundance in the restored paddy fields doubled during the 4-year study period. Our analysis showed that adult detectability, recruitment, and survival rate are seasonally variable and could affect population size estimates obtained by a simple flash census. The mark–recapture technique can provide precise estimates of adult L. lateralis population characteristics and, thus, is a valuable method for predicting firefly populations and assessing the success of the restoration program.     

Climate and density influence annual survival and movement in a migratory songbird

Assessing the drivers of survival across the annual cycle is important for understanding when and how population limitation occurs in migratory animals. Density‐dependent population regulation can occur during breeding and nonbreeding periods, and large‐scale climate cycles can also affect survival throughout the annual cycle via their effects on local weather and vegetation productivity. Most studies of survival use mark–recapture techniques to estimate apparent survival, but true survival rates remain obscured due to unknown rates of permanent emigration. This is especially problematic when assessing annual survival of migratory birds, whose movement between breeding attempts, or breeding dispersal, can be substantial. We used a multistate approach to examine drivers of annual survival and one component of breeding dispersal (habitat‐specific movements) in a population of American redstarts (Setophaga ruticilla) over 11 years in two adjacent habitat types. Annual survival displayed a curvilinear relation to the Southern Oscillation Index, with lower survival during La Niña and El Niño conditions. Although redstart density had no impact on survival, habitat‐specific density influenced local movements between habitat types, with redstarts being less likely to disperse from their previous year's breeding habitat as density within that habitat increased. This finding was strongest in males and may be explained by conspecific attraction influencing settlement decisions. Survival was lowest in young males, but movement was highest in this group, indicating that apparent survival rates were likely biased low due to permanent emigration. Our findings demonstrate the utility of examining breeding dispersal in mark–recapture studies and complement recent work using spatially explicit models of dispersal probability to obtain greater accuracy in survival estimates.     

Inferences about population dynamics from count data using multistate models: a comparison to capture–recapture approaches

Wildlife populations consist of individuals that contribute disproportionately to growth and viability. Understanding a population's spatial and temporal dynamics requires estimates of abundance and demographic rates that account for this heterogeneity. Estimating these quantities can be difficult, requiring years of intensive data collection. Often, this is accomplished through the capture and recapture of individual animals, which is generally only feasible at a limited number of locations. In contrast, N‐mixture models allow for the estimation of abundance, and spatial variation in abundance, from count data alone. We extend recently developed multistate, open population N‐mixture models, which can additionally estimate demographic rates based on an organism's life history characteristics. In our extension, we develop an approach to account for the case where not all individuals can be assigned to a state during sampling. Using only state‐specific count data, we show how our model can be used to estimate local population abundance, as well as density‐dependent recruitment rates and state‐specific survival. We apply our model to a population of black‐throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) that have been surveyed for 25 years on their breeding grounds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The intensive data collection efforts allow us to compare our estimates to estimates derived from capture–recapture data. Our model performed well in estimating population abundance and density‐dependent rates of annual recruitment/immigration. Estimates of local carrying capacity and per capita recruitment of yearlings were consistent with those published in other studies. However, our model moderately underestimated annual survival probability of yearling and adult females and severely underestimates survival probabilities for both of these male stages. The most accurate and precise estimates will necessarily require some amount of intensive data collection efforts (such as capture–recapture). Integrated population models that combine data from both intensive and extensive sources are likely to be the most efficient approach for estimating demographic rates at large spatial and temporal scales.