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Although the causes of population extinction are well understood, the speed at which populations decline to extinction is not. A testable, counter-intuitive prediction of stochastic population theory is that, on average, for any interior interval of the domain of biologically attainable population sizes, the expected duration of increase equals the expected duration of decline. Here we report the first empirical tests of this hypothesis. Using data from two experiments in which replicate populations of Daphnia magna were observed to go extinct under different experimental conditions, we failed to reject the null hypothesis of no difference between the growth and decline phases in populations under constant conditions and conditions with modest environmental variability, but find strong evidence to reject equal first passage time in highly variable environments. These results confirm the prediction of equal passage times entailed by diffusion models of population dynamics, supporting continued application in both population theory and conservation decision making under the restricted conditions where the approximation can be expected to hold.  相似文献   

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The Cellular Energy Allocation (CEA) methodology wasdeveloped as biomarker technique to assess the effectof toxic stress on the energy budget of testorganisms. This short-term assay is based on thebiochemical assessment of changes in the energyreserves (total carbohydrate, protein and lipidcontent) and the energy consumption (electrontransport activity). The CEA methodology was evaluatedusing Daphnia magna juveniles exposed for 96hto sublethal lindane and mercury chlorideconcentrations. The ecological relevance of the CEAassay was assessed by comparing the sub-organismalresponse with population level parameters (obtainedfrom 21 day life table experiments) such as theintrinsic rate of natural increase (rm) and themean total offspring per female. Two differentmethodologies were used to assess the effect levels:the no (lowest) observed effect level (NOAECs-LOAECs)approach and the regression-based approach. Bothtoxicants caused a significant decrease in the netenergy budget of D. magna, with a LowestObserved (Adverse) Effect Concentration (LOAEC) of0.18 mg/l and 5.6 µg/l for lindane andHgCl2,respectively. Changes in the lipid content of theorganisms were detected at toxicant concentrationslower than those affecting the total carbohydrate andprotein content. Toxicant specific effects wereobserved on the electron transport activity.Comparison of the CEA results with those of thepopulation level tests revealed that for mercury theCEA based LOAEC was a three times lower than thatbased on rm and the total brood size(18 µg/l). For lindane the CEA based LOAEC was twotimes lower than the LOAEC based on rm(0.32 mg/l) but was higher than that based on thetotal number of offspring produced (0.1 mg/l).Using the regression-based approach, EC10 valueswere calculated using three parameter sigmoid orlogistic models. Comparison between the CEA andrm based EC10 values demonstrates that forboth chemicals similar effect concentrations areobtained: the CEA-based EC10 (0.20 mg/l) forlindane is 1.5 times higher than the rm-basedEC10 threshold (0.13 mg/l), while for mercury thebiomarker-based EC10 value (9 µg/l) was 1.4times lower than the population-based EC10 value(12.5 µg/l).From these results, we suggest that the short-term CEAassay may be useful for predicting long-term effectsat the population level. The consequences of theobserved effects on the energy budget of the testorganism are discussed in the context of the effectsemerging at the population and community level.  相似文献   

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A central goal of population ecology is to understand and predict fluctuations in population numbers. Until recently, much of the debate focused on the issue of population regulation by density-dependent factors. In this paper, I describe an approach to nonlinear modeling of time-series data that is designed to go beyond this question by investigating the possibility of complex population dynamics, characterized by lags in regulation and periodic or chaotic oscillations. The questions motivating this approach are: what are relative contributions of endogenous vs. exogenous components of dynamics? Is the irregular component in fluctuations entirely due to exogenous noise, or do nonlinearities contribute to it, too? I describe the philosophy and the technical details of the nonlinear modeling approach, and then apply it to a collection of time-series data on vole population fluctuations in northern Europe. The results suggest that population dynamics of European voles undergo a latitudinal shift from stability to chaos. Dynamics in northern Fennoscandia are characterized by positive Lyapunov exponent estimates, and a high degree of short-term (one year ahead) predictability, suggesting a strong endogenous component. In more southerly populations estimated Lyapunov exponents are negative, and there is no one-step ahead predictability, suggesting that fluctuations are driven by exogenous factors.  相似文献   

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It is difficult to make skillful predictions about the future dynamics of marine phytoplankton populations. Here, we use a 22‐year time series of monthly average abundances for 198 phytoplankton taxa from Station L4 in the Western English Channel (1992–2014) to test whether and how aggregating phytoplankton into multi‐species assemblages can improve predictability of their temporal dynamics. Using a non‐parametric framework to assess predictability, we demonstrate that the prediction skill is significantly affected by how species data are grouped into assemblages, the presence of noise, and stochastic behavior within species. Overall, we find that predictability one month into the future increases when species are aggregated together into assemblages with more species, compared with the predictability of individual taxa. However, predictability within dinoflagellates and larger phytoplankton (>12 μm cell radius) is low overall and does not increase by aggregating similar species together. High variability in the data, due to observational error (noise) or stochasticity in population growth rates, reduces the predictability of individual species more than the predictability of assemblages. These findings show that there is greater potential for univariate prediction of species assemblages or whole‐community metrics, such as total chlorophyll or biomass, than for the individual dynamics of phytoplankton species.  相似文献   

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Environmental changes alter the strength of interspecific interactions. However, because it is difficult to quantify interaction strength, empirical evidence remains limited on the relationships among environmental change, interaction strength, and consequences on population dynamics. Here, we evaluated how the interactions of two species of Callosobruchus seed beetles changed with increasing the cage size of the experiments and then affected the coexistence period as a property of population dynamics. Specifically, competition experiments were conducted on Callosobruchus maculatus (C. maculatus) and Callosobruchus chinensis (C. chinensis) using cages of different sizes, which altered the density of adults. We focused on two modes of interspecific interactions between these two species: larval resource competition and adult reproductive interference. Convergent cross mapping (CCM) was implemented to the experimental time series of the two species to assess how environmental change altered their interaction strength and the coexistence period (as a proxy of population dynamics). In most replications, C. maculatus persisted, whereas C. chinensis became extinct. The coexistence periods were longer with increasing cage size. However, there was no statistically significant relationship between cage size and interaction strength. Nevertheless, the stronger (or weaker) interaction strength of the competitively inferior (superior) species on competitively superior (inferior) was associated with longer coexistence periods. Overall, this study demonstrated that interaction strength affected population dynamics; however, changing interaction strength by altering environmental conditions did not necessarily mean that increasing habitat size reduces competition strength.  相似文献   

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Chaotic dynamics appear to be prevalent in short-lived organisms including plankton and may limit long-term predictability. However, few studies have explored how dynamical stability varies through time, across space and at different taxonomic resolutions. Using plankton time series data from 17 lakes and 4 marine sites, we found seasonal patterns of local instability in many species, that short-term predictability was related to local instability, and that local instability occurred most often in the spring, associated with periods of high growth. Taxonomic aggregates were more stable and more predictable than finer groupings. Across sites, higher latitude locations had higher Lyapunov exponents and greater seasonality in local instability, but only at coarser taxonomic resolution. Overall, these results suggest that prediction accuracy, sensitivity to change and management efficacy may be greater at certain times of year and that prediction will be more feasible for taxonomic aggregates.  相似文献   

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Although numerous studies show that communities are jointly influenced by predation and competitive interactions, few have resolved how temporal variability in these interactions influences community assembly and stability. Here, we addressed this challenge in experimental microbial microcosms by employing empirical dynamic modelling tools to: (1) detect causal interactions between prey species in the absence and presence of a predator; (2) quantify the time‐varying strength of these interactions and (3) explore stability in the resulting communities. Our findings show that predators boost the number of causal interactions among community members, and lead to reduced dynamic stability, but higher coexistence among prey species. These results correspond to time‐varying changes in species interactions, including emergence of morphological characteristics that appeared to reduce predation, and indirectly facilitate growth of predator‐susceptible species. Jointly, our findings suggest that careful consideration of both context and time may be necessary to predict and explain outcomes in multi‐trophic systems.  相似文献   

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Individual biology influences environment-dependent population dynamics through life history. Population models that consider individual physiology are therefore popular for modelling dynamics under various environments. In recent years, a quantitative framework integrating metabolic theory (dynamic energy budget theory) into individual-based models (DEB-IBMs) has emerged to investigate the link from individual physiology to demography. However, this link shows substantial variation, some of which may be explained by individual behaviours operating in local environments. Current DEB-IBMs focusing on population modelling do not consider individual-scale behaviours and instead resort to imposed population-level relationships. We therefore propose to extend the DEB-IBM approach to consider the role of individual-scale behaviour by replacing the functional response – a population-averaged phenomenological relationship – with individual-scale foraging mechanisms in a spatially heterogeneous environment. Using this model, we simulate consumer dynamics in a consumer-resource system for different individual behaviours across a range of temperature, resource carrying capacity and individual variability values. We further illustrate the model in a case study by comparing simulated population dynamics with both the classical DEB-IBM and experimental data for a laboratory Daphnia magna population. Simulations reveal that temperature- and resource-dependent consumer extinction probability patterns change with individual behaviour. Moreover, simulations agree with experimental data on D. magna populations: dynamics after the initial growth peak were better captured under random walk movement behaviour compared to the classical DEB-IBM. Both the simulation and case study showed how fine-scale behaviour mediates the metabolism's impact on population dynamics by allowing for the emergence of different functional responses. Our model thus provides a link between metabolism, life history and population dynamics by centring behavioural mechanisms and environmental heterogeneity at the individual scale. This expansion of the modelling toolbox for physiologically structured populations can boost theory development by bridging various fields in ecology, and contribute to our understanding of environment-dependent ecological patterns.  相似文献   

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Dynamic energy budget (DEB) theory offers a perspective on population ecology whose starting point is energy utilization by, and homeostasis within, individual organisms. It is natural to ask what it adds to the existing large body of individual-based ecological theory. We approach this question pragmatically--through detailed study of the individual physiology and population dynamics of the zooplankter Daphnia and its algal food. Standard DEB theory uses several state variables to characterize the state of an individual organism, thereby making the transition to population dynamics technically challenging, while ecologists demand maximally simple models that can be used in multi-scale modelling. We demonstrate that simpler representations of individual bioenergetics with a single state variable (size), and two life stages (juveniles and adults), contain sufficient detail on mass and energy budgets to yield good fits to data on growth, maturation and reproduction of individual Daphnia in response to food availability. The same simple representations of bioenergetics describe some features of Daphnia mortality, including enhanced mortality at low food that is not explicitly incorporated in the standard DEB model. Size-structured, population models incorporating this additional mortality component resolve some long-standing questions on stability and population cycles in Daphnia. We conclude that a bioenergetic model serving solely as a 'regression' connecting organismal performance to the history of its environment can rest on simpler representations than those of standard DEB. But there are associated costs with such pragmatism, notably loss of connection to theory describing interspecific variation in physiological rates. The latter is an important issue, as the type of detailed study reported here can only be performed for a handful of species.  相似文献   

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Well‐intentioned environmental management can backfire, causing unforeseen damage. To avoid this, managers and ecologists seek accurate predictions of the ecosystem‐wide impacts of interventions, given small and imprecise datasets, which is an incredibly difficult task. We generated and analysed thousands of ecosystem population time series to investigate whether fitted models can aid decision‐makers to select interventions. Using these time‐series data (sparse and noisy datasets drawn from deterministic Lotka‐Volterra systems with two to nine species, of known network structure), dynamic model forecasts of whether a species’ future population will be positively or negatively affected by rapid eradication of another species were correct > 70% of the time. Although 70% correct classifications is only slightly better than an uninformative prediction (50%), this classification accuracy can be feasibly improved by increasing monitoring accuracy and frequency. Our findings suggest that models may not need to produce well‐constrained predictions before they can inform decisions that improve environmental outcomes.  相似文献   

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