Advanced snowmelt causes shift towards positive neighbour interactions in a subarctic tundra community

Positive and negative species interactions are important factors in structuring vegetation communities. Studies in many ecosystems have focussed on competition; however, facilitation has often been found to outweigh competition under harsh environmental conditions. The balance between positive and negative species interactions is known to shift along spatial, temporal and environmental gradients and thus is likely to be affected by climate change. Winter temperature and precipitation patterns in Interior Alaska are rapidly changing and could lead to warmer winters with a shallow, early melting snow cover in the near future. We conducted snow manipulation and neighbour removal experiments to test whether the relative importance of positive and negative species interactions differs between three winter climate scenarios in a subarctic tundra community. In plots with ambient, manually advanced or delayed snowmelt, we assessed the relative importance of neighbours for survival, phenology, growth and reproduction of two dwarf shrub species. Under ambient conditions and after delayed snowmelt, positive and negative neighbour effects were generally balanced, but when snowmelt was advanced we found overall facilitative neighbour effects on survival, phenology, growth and reproduction of Empetrum nigrum, the earlier developing of the two target species. As earlier snowmelt was correlated with colder spring temperatures and a higher number of frosts, we conclude that plants experienced harsher environmental conditions after early snowmelt and that neighbours could have played an important role in ameliorating the physical environment at the beginning of the growing season.     

Cumulative effects of climate and landscape change drive spatial distribution of Rocky Mountain wolverine (Gulo gulo L.)

Contemporary landscapes are subject to a multitude of human‐derived stressors. Effects of such stressors are increasingly realized by population declines and large‐scale extirpation of taxa worldwide. Most notably, cumulative effects of climate and landscape change can limit species’ local adaptation and dispersal capabilities, thereby reducing realized niche space and range extent. Resolving the cumulative effects of multiple stressors on species persistence is a pressing challenge in ecology, especially for declining species. For example, wolverines (Gulo gulo L.) persist on only 40% of their historic North American range. While climate change has been shown to be a mechanism of range retractions, anthropogenic landscape disturbance has been recently implicated. We hypothesized these two interact to effect declines. We surveyed wolverine occurrence using camera trapping and genetic tagging at 104 sites at the wolverine range edge, spanning a 15,000 km² gradient of climate, topographic, anthropogenic, and biotic variables. We used occupancy and generalized linear models to disentangle the factors explaining wolverine distribution. Persistent spring snow pack—expected to decrease with climate change—was a significant predictor, but so was anthropogenic landscape change. Canid mesocarnivores, which we hypothesize are competitors supported by anthropogenic landscape change, had comparatively weaker effect. Wolverine population declines and range shifts likely result from climate change and landscape change operating in tandem. We contend that similar results are likely for many species and that research that simultaneously examines climate change, landscape change, and the biotic landscape is warranted. Ecology research and species conservation plans that address these interactions are more likely to meet their objectives.     

Demographic response of tundra small mammals to a snow fencing experiment

Snow cover is a key environmental component for tundra wildlife that will be affected by climate change. Change to the snow cover may affect the population dynamics of high‐latitude small mammals, which are active throughout the winter and reproduce under the snow. We experimentally tested the hypotheses that a deeper snow cover would enhance the densities and winter reproductive rates of small mammals, but that predation by mustelids could be higher in areas of increased small mammal density. We enhanced snow cover by setting out snow fences at three sites in the Canadian Arctic (Bylot Island, Nunavut, and Herschel Island and Komakuk Beach, Yukon) over periods ranging from one to four years. Densities of winter nests were higher where snow depth was increased but spring lemming densities did not increase on the experimental areas. Lemmings probably moved from areas of deep snow, their preferred winter habitat, to summer habitat during snow melt once the advantages associated with deep snow were gone. Our treatment had no effect on signs of reproduction in winter nests, proportion of lactating females in spring, or the proportion of juveniles caught in spring, which suggests that deep snow did not enhance reproduction. Results on predation were inconsistent across sites as predation by weasels was higher on the experimental area at one site but lower at two others and was not higher in areas of winter nest aggregations. Although this experiment provided us with several new insights about the impact of snow cover on the population dynamics of tundra small mammals, it also illustrates the challenges and difficulties associated with large‐scale experiments aimed at manipulating a critical climatic factor.     

Distribution and Broadscale Habitat Relations of the Wolverine in the Contiguous United States

ABSTRACT Conservation of the wolverine (Gulo gulo) at the southern extent of its North American range requires reliable understandings of past and present distribution patterns and broad-scale habitat relations. We compiled 820 verifiable and documented records of wolverine occurrence (specimens, DNA detections, photos, and accounts of wolverines being killed or captured) in the contiguous United States from museums, the literature, and institutional archives. We spatially referenced 729 records with areal precision ≤1 township (93.2 km²) and temporal precision ≤10 years. Historical records (1827–1960) were located primarily in the western mountains and Great Lakes region. However, our data suggest that the historical distribution of wolverines in the Cascade Range and Sierra Nevada was disjunct, contradicting previous interpretations. Our results indicate that wolverine range in the contiguous United States had contracted substantially by the mid-1900s. Current records (1995–2005) are limited to north-central Washington, northern and central Idaho, western Montana, and northwestern Wyoming. We investigated potential relations between wolverines and alpine vegetation, cold temperatures, and spring snow cover by comparing the distribution of historical wolverine records with Kuchler's potential natural vegetation types, Holdridge's climatic life zones, and EASE snow-cover maps during the latter portion of the wolverine denning period (15 Apr-14 May). In the western mountains, historical wolverine records generally occurred in or near alpine vegetation and climatic conditions, especially at the limits of their distribution in the Cascade Range, Sierra Nevada, and southern Rocky Mountains. However, the only habitat layer that fully accounted for historical distribution patterns was spring snow cover. Causal factors for the extirpation of wolverines from the southern portions of their range in the contiguous United States are unknown, but are likely related to high levels of human-caused mortality and low to nonexistent immigration rates.     

Snow cover and extreme winter warming events control flower abundance of some,but not all species in high arctic Svalbard

The High Arctic winter is expected to be altered through ongoing and future climate change. Winter precipitation and snow depth are projected to increase and melt out dates change accordingly. Also, snow cover and depth will play an important role in protecting plant canopy from increasingly more frequent extreme winter warming events. Flower production of many Arctic plants is dependent on melt out timing, since season length determines resource availability for flower preformation. We erected snow fences to increase snow depth and shorten growing season, and counted flowers of six species over 5 years, during which we experienced two extreme winter warming events. Most species were resistant to snow cover increase, but two species reduced flower abundance due to shortened growing seasons. Cassiope tetragona responded strongly with fewer flowers in deep snow regimes during years without extreme events, while Stellaria crassipes responded partly. Snow pack thickness determined whether winter warming events had an effect on flower abundance of some species. Warming events clearly reduced flower abundance in shallow but not in deep snow regimes of Cassiope tetragona, but only marginally for Dryas octopetala. However, the affected species were resilient and individuals did not experience any long term effects. In the case of short or cold summers, a subset of species suffered reduced reproductive success, which may affect future plant composition through possible cascading competition effects. Extreme winter warming events were shown to expose the canopy to cold winter air. The following summer most of the overwintering flower buds could not produce flowers. Thus reproductive success is reduced if this occurs in subsequent years. We conclude that snow depth influences flower abundance by altering season length and by protecting or exposing flower buds to cold winter air, but most species studied are resistant to changes.     

Nonlinear responses of wolverine populations to declining winter snowpack

Understanding the population-level impacts of climate change is critical for effectively managing ecosystems. Predators are important components of many systems because they provide top−down control of community structure. Ecological theory suggests that these species could be particularly susceptible to climate change because they generally occur at low densities and have resource-limited populations. Yet, our understanding of climate-change impacts on predators is hindered by the difficulty in assessing complex, nonlinear dynamics over the large spatial scales necessary to depict a species’ general response to abiotic forcing. Here we use fur-return data to characterize population dynamics of a snow-adapted carnivore, the wolverine, across most of its North American range. Using novel modeling techniques, we simultaneously measured the impact of winter snowpack on wolverine dynamics across critical thresholds in snowpack depth and two domains of population growth. Winter snowpack declined from 1970 to 2004 in nearly the entire region studied, concordant with increases in Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies. Fur returns have declined in many areas; our models show that snowpack has strong, nonlinear effects on wolverine population dynamics. Importantly, wolverine harvests dropped the fastest in areas where snowpack declined most rapidly and also where snowpack had the greatest effect on population dynamics. Moreover, declining snow cover appears to drive trends in wolverine population synchrony, with important implications for overall persistence. These results illustrate the vulnerability and complex responses of predator populations to climate change. We also suggest that declining snowpack may be an important and hitherto little-analyzed mechanism through which climate change alters high-latitude ecosystems.     

Effects of experimentally imposed climate scenarios on flowering phenology and flower production of subarctic bog species

Climate scenarios for high‐latitude areas predict not only increased summer temperatures, but also larger variation in snowfall and winter temperatures. By using open‐top chambers, we experimentally manipulated both summer temperatures and winter and spring snow accumulations and temperatures independently in a blanket bog in subarctic Sweden, yielding six climate scenarios. We studied the effects of these scenarios on flowering phenology and flower production of Andromeda polifolia (woody evergreen) and Rubus chamaemorus (perennial herb) during 2 years. The second year of our study (2002) was characterized by unusually high spring and early summer temperatures. Our winter manipulations led to consistent increases in winter snow cover. As a result, average and minimum air and soil temperatures in the high snow cover treatments were higher than in the winter ambient treatments, whereas temperature fluctuations were smaller. Spring warming resulted in higher average, minimum, and maximum soil temperatures. Summer warming led to higher air and soil temperatures in mid‐summer (June–July), but not in late summer (August–September). The unusually high temperatures in 2002 advanced the median flowering date by 2 weeks for both species in all treatments. Superimposed on this effect, we found that for both Andromeda and Rubus, all our climate treatments (except summer warming for Rubus) advanced flowering by 1–4 days. The total flower production of both species showed a more or less similar response: flower production in the warm year 2002 exceeded that in 2001 by far. However, in both species flower production was only stimulated by the spring‐warming treatments. Our results show that the reproductive ecology of both species is very responsive to climate change but this response is very dependent on specific climate events, especially those that occur in winter and spring. This suggests that high‐latitude climate change experiments should focus more on winter and spring events than has been the case so far.     

Climate change alters temporal dynamics of alpine soil microbial functioning and biogeochemical cycling via earlier snowmelt

Soil microbial communities regulate global biogeochemical cycles and respond rapidly to changing environmental conditions. However, understanding how soil microbial communities respond to climate change, and how this influences biogeochemical cycles, remains a major challenge. This is especially pertinent in alpine regions where climate change is taking place at double the rate of the global average, with large reductions in snow cover and earlier spring snowmelt expected as a consequence. Here, we show that spring snowmelt triggers an abrupt transition in the composition of soil microbial communities of alpine grassland that is closely linked to shifts in soil microbial functioning and biogeochemical pools and fluxes. Further, by experimentally manipulating snow cover we show that this abrupt seasonal transition in wide-ranging microbial and biogeochemical soil properties is advanced by earlier snowmelt. Preceding winter conditions did not change the processes that take place during snowmelt. Our findings emphasise the importance of seasonal dynamics for soil microbial communities and the biogeochemical cycles that they regulate. Moreover, our findings suggest that earlier spring snowmelt due to climate change will have far reaching consequences for microbial communities and nutrient cycling in these globally widespread alpine ecosystems.Subject terms: Metagenomics, Climate-change ecology, Microbial ecology, Biogeochemistry, Soil microbiology     

Population vulnerability to climate change linked to timing of breeding in boreal ducks

Identifying and understanding why traits make species vulnerable to changing climatic conditions remain central problems in evolutionary and applied ecology. We used spring snow cover duration as a proxy for phenological timing of wetland ecosystems, and examined how snow cover duration during spring and during the entire snow season affected population dynamics of duck species breeding in the western boreal forest of North America, 1973–2007. We predicted that population level responses would differ among duck species, such that late‐nesting species with reduced flexibility in their timing of breeding, i.e. scaup (Aythya spp.) and scoter (Melanitta spp.), would be more strongly affected by changing snow cover conditions relative to species better able to adjust timing of breeding to seasonal phenology, i.e. mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) and American wigeon (Anas americana). Population growth rates of scaup and scoter were positively linked to spring snow cover duration; after accounting for effects of density dependence, larger populations resulted after springs with long snow cover duration than after springs with short snow cover duration. In contrast, population growth rates of mallard and wigeon were either negatively or only weakly associated with snow cover duration. Duck population models were then incorporated with snow cover duration derived from climate model simulations under the A2 emission scenario, and these predictions suggested that late‐nesting duck species will experience the most severe population declines. Results are consistent with a hypothesis that the gradual climatic warming observed in the western boreal forest of North America has contributed to and may continue to exacerbate population declines of scaup and scoter.     

Increased spring freezing vulnerability for alpine shrubs under early snowmelt

Alpine dwarf shrub communities are phenologically linked with snowmelt timing, so early spring exposure may increase risk of freezing damage during early development, and consequently reduce seasonal growth. We examined whether environmental factors (duration of snow cover, elevation) influenced size and the vulnerability of shrubs to spring freezing along elevational gradients and snow microhabitats by modelling the past frequency of spring freezing events. We sampled biomass and measured the size of Salix herbacea, Vaccinium myrtillus, Vaccinium uliginosum and Loiseleuria procumbens in late spring. Leaves were exposed to freezing temperatures to determine the temperature at which 50 % of specimens are killed for each species and sampling site. By linking site snowmelt and temperatures to long-term climate measurements, we extrapolated the frequency of spring freezing events at each elevation, snow microhabitat and per species over 37 years. Snowmelt timing was significantly driven by microhabitat effects, but was independent of elevation. Shrub growth was neither enhanced nor reduced by earlier snowmelt, but decreased with elevation. Freezing resistance was strongly species dependent, and did not differ along the elevation or snowmelt gradient. Microclimate extrapolation suggested that potentially lethal freezing events (in May and June) occurred for three of the four species examined. Freezing events never occurred on late snow beds, and increased in frequency with earlier snowmelt and higher elevation. Extrapolated freezing events showed a slight, non-significant increase over the 37-year record. We suggest that earlier snowmelt does not enhance growth in four dominant alpine shrubs, but increases the risk of lethal spring freezing exposure for less freezing-resistant species.     

Response of alpine plant flower production to temperature and snow cover fluctuation at the species range boundary

Surface temperatures have risen globally during the last 30 years, especially in alpine areas. It is recognized that these increases are influencing phenology, physiology and distribution of plants. However, few studies have addressed the effects of climate warming at the species range boundary, where plants are expected to be more stressed. We analysed 11-year data sets of inflorescence production of four alpine plants (Carex foetida, Leucanthemopsis alpina, Senecio incanus, Silene suecica) at the southern boundary of their distribution range in the N-Apennines (N-Italy), in relation to air temperature and snow cover persistence. Inflorescence production of all species fluctuated greatly and was significantly affected by the variation of the mean temperature of June/July. We found significant relationships also between species data series and the snow cover persistence. Moreover, species responded differently to such parameters. One species showed a significant decrease of the reproductive effort, whereas the other three showed a stable trend of inflorescence production. We have shown that some alpine species are favoured by increased temperature and reduced snow cover even at the boundary of their range, where they are thought to be particularly sensitive to warming. However, the aptitude to cope with climate change might be limited by competition against thermophilous species migrating from lower altitude and in some cases by the low altitude of mountain peaks that prevent species upward migration. The individualistic response of species to climate change found here, support the statement that the composition of plant communities might rapidly change in the future.     

Snow cover manipulations alter survival of early life stages of cold‐temperate tree species

Projections of future climate suggest increases in global temperatures that are especially pronounced in winter in cold‐temperate regions. Thermal insulation provided by snow cover to litter, soil, and overwintering plants will likely be affected by changing winter temperatures and might influence future species composition and ranges. We investigated effects of changing snow cover on seed germination and sapling survival of several cold‐temperate tree species using a snow manipulation approach. Post‐winter seed germination increased or decreased with increasing snow cover, depending on species; decreased seed germination was found in species that characteristically disperse seed in summer or fall months prior to snowfall. Post‐winter sapling survival increased with increasing snow cover for all species, though some species benefitted more from increased snow cover than others. Sapling mortality was associated with root exposure, suggesting the possibility that soil frost heaving could be an important mechanism for observed effects. Our results suggest that altered snow regimes may cause re‐assembly of current species habitat relationships and may drive changes in species’ biogeographic range. However, local snow regimes also vary with associated vegetation cover and topography, suggesting that species distribution patterns may be strongly influenced by spatial heterogeneity in snow regimes and complicating future projections.     

The impact of snow accumulation on a heath spider community in a sub-Arctic landscape

Patterns of snow cover across the Arctic are expected to change as a result of shrub encroachment and climate change. As snow cover impacts both the subnivean environment and the date of spring melt, these changes could impact Arctic food webs by altering the phenology and survival of overwintering arthropods, such as spiders (Araneae). In this field study, we used snow fences to increase snow cover across a series of large (375 m²) heath tundra plots and examined the effects on the local spider community during the following growing season. Fences increased snow cover and delayed melt on the treatment plots, paralleling the conditions of nearby shrub sites. Frequent sampling over the season revealed that increased snow cover did not affect spider abundance across different genera nor did it affect overall community composition. Further, our snow treatment did not affect the dates when plots achieved seasonal catch milestones (25, 50, 75 % of total seasonal catch). Increased winter snow cover did, however, produce higher body masses in adults and juveniles of the dominant species Pardosa lapponica (Lycosidae), beginning immediately after snow melt until midway through the growing season. In addition, ovary/oocyte mass of mature P. lapponica females was significantly higher on treatment plots during the peak reproductive period. This is the first experimental manipulation study to report a significant effect of landscape-level changes to winter snow cover on the biomass of an Arctic macroarthropod.     

Climatic effects on the breeding phenology and reproductive success of an arctic-nesting goose species

Climate warming is pronounced in the Arctic and migratory birds are expected to be among the most affected species. We examined the effects of local and regional climatic variations on the breeding phenology and reproductive success of greater snow geese ( Chen caerulescens atlantica ), a migratory species nesting in the Canadian Arctic. We used a long-term dataset based on the monitoring of 5447 nests and the measurements of 19 234 goslings over 16 years (1989–2004) on Bylot Island. About 50% of variation in the reproductive phenology of individuals was explained by spring climatic factors. High mean temperatures and, to a lesser extent, low snow cover in spring were associated with an increase in nest density and early egg-laying and hatching dates. High temperature in spring and high early summer rainfall were positively related to nesting success. These effects may result from a reduction in egg predation rate when the density of nesting geese is high and when increased water availability allows females to stay close to their nest during incubation recesses. Summer brood loss and production of young at the end of the summer increased when values of the summer Arctic Oscillation (AO) index were either very positive (low temperatures) or very negative (high temperatures), indicating that these components of the breeding success were most influenced by the regional summer climate. Gosling mass and size near fledging were reduced in years with high spring temperatures. This effect is likely due to a reduced availability of high quality food in years with early spring, either due to food depletion resulting from high brood density or a mismatch between hatching date of goslings and the timing of the peak of plant quality. Our analysis suggests that climate warming should advance the reproductive phenology of geese, but that high spring temperatures and extreme values of the summer AO index may decrease their reproductive success up to fledging.     

The importance of snow in species distribution models of arctic vegetation

Snow cover is characteristic of high‐latitude and ‐altitude ecosystems where snowpack properties regulate many ecological patterns and processes. Nevertheless, snow information is only rarely used as a predictor in species distribution models (SDMs). Methodological difficulties have been limiting both the quality and quantity of available snow information in SDMs. Here, we test whether incorporating remotely sensed snow information in baseline SDMs (using five climate‐topography‐soil variables) improves the accuracy of species occurrence and community level predictions. We use vegetation data recorded in 1200 study sites spanning a wide range of environmental conditions characteristic of mountain systems at high‐latitudes. The data consist of 273 species from three ecologically different and evolutionarily distant taxonomical groups: vascular plants, mosses, and lichens. The inclusion of the snow persistence variable significantly improved the predictive performance of the distribution and community level predictions. The improvements were constant, irrespective of the evaluation metric used or the taxonomic group in question. Snow was the most influential predictor for 36% of the species and had, on average, the second highest variable importance scores of all the environmental variables considered. Consequently, models incorporating snow data produced markedly more refined distribution maps than simpler models. Snow information should not be neglected in the construction of species distribution models where ecosystems characterized by seasonal snow cover are concerned.     

Multiple-scale environmental modulation of lichen reproduction

It is necessary to understand how environmental changes affect plant fitness to predict survival of a species, but this knowledge is scarce for lichens and complicated by their formation of sexual and asexual reproductive structures. Are the presence and number of reproductive structures in Lobaria pulmonaria, a threatened lichen, dependent on thallus size, and is their formation sequential? Does any size-dependence and sequential formation vary along a climate gradient? Generalized linear mixed models were used to explore the effect of environmental predictors on the size and presence/abundance of each reproductive structure and to determine the probability of a given-sized thallus to develop any reproductive structure. The largest individuals are more likely to develop reproductive structures, and the lichen uses a mixed strategy of early asexual reproduction and late sexual. Macro and microclimatic variables also influenced reproductive capacity. Relationships among climate conditions and lichen size and reproductive capacity can compromise the future viability of the species in the most southern populations of Europe.     

Assessing the vulnerability of European butterflies to climate change using multiple criteria

Vulnerability of 100 European butterfly species to climate change was assessed using 13 different criteria and data on species distributions, climate, land cover and topography from 1,608 grid squares 30′ × 60′ in size, and species characteristics increasing the susceptibility to climate change. Four bioclimatic model-based criteria were developed for each species by comparing the present-day distribution and climatic suitability of the occupied grid cells with projected distribution and suitability in the future using the HadCM3-A2 climate scenario for 2051–2080. The proportions of disadvantageous land cover types (bare areas, water, snow and ice, artificial surfaces) and cultivated and managed land in the occupied grid squares and their surroundings were measured to indicate the amount of unfavourable land cover and dispersal barriers for butterflies, and topographical heterogeneity to indicate the availability of potential climatic refugia. Vulnerability was also assessed based on species dispersal ability, geographical localization and habitat specialization. Northern European species appeared to be amongst the most vulnerable European butterflies. However, there is much species-to-species variation, and species appear to be threatened due to different combinations of critical characteristics. Inclusion of additional criteria, such as life-history species characteristics, topography and land cover to complement the bioclimatic model-based species vulnerability measures can significantly deepen the assessments of species susceptibility to climate change.     

Comments on Brodie and Post: Climate-driven declines in wolverine populations: causal connection or spurious correlation?

The recent paper by Brodie and Post (“Nonlinear responses of wolverine populations to declining winter snowpack”, Popul Ecol 52:279–287, 2010) reports conclusions that are unsupportable, in our opinion, due to both mis-interpretations of current knowledge regarding the wolverine’s (Gulo gulo) association with snow, and the uncritical use of harvest data to index wolverine populations. The authors argue that, because the wolverine is a snow-dependent species, average annual provincial snowfall, based on weather station data, can be expected to correlate strongly and positively with wolverine population numbers, which in turn can be accurately indexed by trapper harvests. Thus, correlations between declines in wolverine harvests and declining average snowpack are interpreted to reflect a climate-driven decrease in wolverine populations. This conclusion overstates the nature of the wolverine’s association with snow, and makes unsupportable assumptions about the reliability of harvest data as a proxy for population size.     

Climate change and the risks associated with delayed breeding in a tropical wild bird population

There is growing evidence of changes in the timing of important ecological events, such as flowering in plants and reproduction in animals, in response to climate change, with implications for population decline and biodiversity loss. Recent work has shown that the timing of breeding in wild birds is changing in response to climate change partly because individuals are remarkably flexible in their timing of breeding. Despite this work, our understanding of these processes in wild populations remains very limited and biased towards species from temperate regions. Here, we report the response to changing climate in a tropical wild bird population using a long-term dataset on a formerly critically endangered island endemic, the Mauritius kestrel. We show that the frequency of spring rainfall affects the timing of breeding, with birds breeding later in wetter springs. Delays in breeding have consequences in terms of reduced reproductive success as birds get exposed to risks associated with adverse climatic conditions later on in the breeding season, which reduce nesting success. These results, combined with the fact that frequency of spring rainfall has increased by about 60 per cent in our study area since 1962, imply that climate change is exposing birds to the stochastic risks of late reproduction by causing them to start breeding relatively late in the season.     

Annual variation in the distribution of summer snowdrifts in the Kosciuszko alpine area,Australia, and its effect on the composition and structure of alpine vegetation

Abstract Australian alpine ecosystems are expected to diminish in extent as global warming intensifies. Alpine vegetation patterns are influenced by the duration of snow cover including the presence of snowdrifts in summer, but there is little quantitative information on landscape‐scale relationships between vegetation patterns and the frequency of occurrence of persistent summer snowdrifts in the Australian alps. We mapped annual changes in summer snowdrifts in the Kosciuszko alpine region, Australia, from Landsat TM images and modelled the frequency of occurrence of persistent summer snowdrifts from long‐term records (1954–2003) of winter snow depth. We then compared vegetation composition and structure among four classes that differed in the frequency of occurrence of persistent summer snowdrifts. We found a curvilinear relationship between annual winter snow depth and the area occupied by persistent snowdrifts in the following summer (r² = 0.9756). Only 21 ha (0.42% of study area) was predicted to have supported summer snowdrifts in 80% of the past 50 years, while 440 ha supported persistent summer snow in 10% of years. Mean cover and species richness of vascular plants declined significantly, and species composition varied significantly, as the frequency of summer snow persistence increased. Cushion plants and rushes were most abundant where summer snowdrifts occurred most frequently, and shrubs, grasses and sedges were most abundant in areas that did not support snowdrifts in summer. The results demonstrate strong regional relationships between vegetation composition and structure and the frequency of occurrence of persistent summer snowdrifts. Reductions in winter snow depth due to global warming are expected to lead to substantial reductions in the extent of persistent summer snowdrifts. As a consequence, shrubs, grasses and sedges are predicted to expand at the expense of cushion plants and rushes, reducing landscape vegetation diversity. Fortunately, few vascular plant species (e.g. Ranunculus niphophilus) appear to be totally restricted to areas where summer snow occurs most frequently. The results from this study highlight potential indicator species that could be monitored to assess the effects of global warming on Australian alpine environments.