Widespread resistance of Mediterranean island ecosystems to the establishment of three alien species

Although some invasive plants are cosmopolitan, not all ecosystems are invaded to the same degree. Yet there is little experimental work on how ecosystem resistance to invasion at the establishment phase differs among ecosystems. We conducted two field sowing experiments in two consecutive years to examine establishment of the deciduous tree Ailanthus altissima, the succulent subshrub Carpobrotus spp. and the annual geophyte Oxalis pes‐caprae in coastal dunes, shrublands and oldfields in more than 200 sites across six Mediterranean Basin islands differing in climatic conditions and local species richness. Establishment success (i.e. percentage of plots with at least one seedling) and rates (i.e. seedling to sown seed ratio) were low, especially for Ailanthus even when accounting for differences in seed viability. Oxalis was capable of producing a new cohort of seedlings the year following planting. By contrast, all Ailanthus seedlings and half the Carpobrotus seedlings died following the first summer. Differences in establishment success and rates among ecosystems were species‐, island‐ and year‐dependent. Differences in precipitation and mean temperature were associated with differences in establishment rates across sites. Establishment rates tended to be positively correlated with cumulative precipitation and negatively with mean T^a. Unexpectedly, native species richness was not a good predictor of seedling establishment, except for higher Oxalis establishment success in species rich habitats. By conducting field sowing tests at multiple sites across a region we found that except for Oxalis, Mediterranean island ecosystems are quite resistant to invader establishment. These results suggest that differences in the degree of invasion between ecosystems and islands might be more dependent upon the influence of invasion event factors (e.g. propagule pressure) or factors acting at a later life‐history stages rather than differences in the resistance imposed by ecosystems to invader recruitment. Moreover, our results support the notion that in Mediterranean ecosystems invasions are highly idiosyncratic events and strongly dependent on water availability conditions.     

Impact of environmental conditions on fruit production patterns of shea tree (Vitellaria paradoxa C.F.Gaertn) in West Africa

A better knowledge of the impact of environmental conditions on shea tree’s fruit production is critical to improve the species management. Fruit production of 237 shea trees was monitored over five successive years (2014–2018) to understand how climatic variables, shea tree population and land use could affect fruit production patterns of the species in Burkina Faso. Data were collected in 12 shea tree populations distributed in three climatic zones with two contrast land use systems. The results showed that fruit production was negatively correlated with mean annual temperature, temperature seasonality, rainfall seasonality and solar radiation, while it was positive with annual rainfall. Therefore, fruiting modelling is needed to predict the impact of future climate change on reproductive ability of the species. In each climatic zone, fruit production was significantly different among shea tree populations (p < 0.05). Within populations, fruit production greatly varies among years with specific patterns of variation. Land use had significant effect on fruit production of shea tree (p < 0.05). Annually, shea trees produced about 12 times more in agroforestry parklands than in protected areas. Interannual variation in fruit production at individual tree level was higher in protected areas. The cultivation of shea tree is recommended to improve its fruit productivity.     

Annual Growth Ring Patterns in Brachystegia spiciformis Reveal Influence of Precipitation on Tree Growth1

The availability of exactly dated tree‐ring chronologies is limited in tropical regions. However, these chronologies could contribute widely to studies of the influence of natural and human‐induced factors on tropical forests. We examine the potential for building a chronology based on three sites in the miombo woodland of western Zambia. Brachystegia spiciformis Benth., a dominant species from this vegetation type, is used. Response of the chronology to several climatic factors is examined. All specimens showed very clear growth rings, and cross‐dating between radii of a tree was successful for all trees. Site chronologies could be constructed after cross‐dating of growth ring series of individual trees. The mean growth ring curves of the three sites were significantly similar, allowing for the construction of a regional chronology. Correlation function analysis between the tree‐ring chronology and regional climatic variables revealed that climate at the core of the rainy season, in December and January, has an explicit influence on tree growth. Where precipitation and relative humidity in these months influence tree growth positively, temperature correlates in a negative way. Some 20 percent of the variance in the B. spiciformis tree‐ring chronology is accounted for by wet season rainfall. The successful cross‐dating and correlation between a tree‐ring chronology and climate demonstrated in this study indicate annual ring formation in B. spiciformis trees and sensitivity to climatic conditions.     

Land use and ostracod community structure

Ostracods are important members of the benthos and littoral communities of lake ecosystems. Ostracods respond to hydrochemistry (water chemistry) which is influenced by climatic factors such as water balance, temperature, and chemicals in rainfall runoff from the land. Thus, at local scales, environmental preferences of ostracods and characteristics of lakes are used to infer changes in climate, hydrology, and erosion of lake catchments. This study addresses potential drivers of ostracod community structure and biodiversity at multiple spatial scales using NMS, CART^?, and multiple regression models. We identified 23 ostracod species from 12 lake sites. Lake area, maximum depth, spring conductivity, chlorophyll a, pH, dissolved oxygen, sedimentary carbonate, and organic matter all influence ostracod community structure based on our NMS. Based on regression analysis, lake depth, chlorophyll a, and total dissolved solids best explained ostracod richness and abundance. Land uses are also important community structuring elements that varied with scale; locally and regionally agriculture, wetlands, and grasslands were important. Nationally, using regression tree analysis of lakes sites in the North American Non-marine ostracod database (NANODe), row-crop agriculture was the most important predictor of biodiversity. Low agriculture corresponded to low species richness but greater landscape heterogeneity produced sites of high ostracod richness.     

Growth response of Sabina tibetica to climate factors along an elevation gradient in south Tibet

We examine the climate significance in tree-ring chronologies retrieved from Sabina tibetica Kom. (Tibetan juniper) at two sites ranging in elevation from 4124 to 4693 m above sea level (a.s.l.) in the Namling region, south Tibet. The study region is under the control of semi-arid plateau temperate climate. The samples were grouped into high- and low-elevation classes and standard ring-width chronologies for both classes were developed. Statistical analysis revealed a decreasing growth rate yet increasing chronology reliability with increasing elevation. Overall, correlation analyses showed that radial growth in S. tibetica at the study sites was controlled by similar climatic factors, regardless of elevation; these factors comprised early winter (November) and early summer (May–June) temperatures as well as annual precipitation (July–June). Slight differences in the correlation between tree growth along the elevation gradient and climate variables were examined. The correlations with early winter temperature varied from significantly positive at the low-elevation site to weakly positive at the high-elevation site, whereas the correlations between radial growth and early summer temperature increased from weakly negative at the low-elevation sites to strongly negative at the high-elevation sites. The abundant precipitation through the year may have masked variations in tree growth on different elevation aspects. Our results will aid future dendroclimatological studies of Namling tree rings in south Tibet and demonstrate the potential of S. tibetica Kom. for improving our understanding of environmental impacts on tree growth.     

Response of leaf morphological traits of relict-endemic Symplocos species (S. coccinea and S. speciosa) to elevation and abiotic fluctuations

Abiotic fluctuations in montane ecosystems trigger changes in the hydric functional traits of tree species. These variations are better recognized in tree species inhabiting montane humid ravine slopes with different elevation, as is the case of many areas across the Mexican Neotropical montane forests. Little is known about the response of tree towards elevation gradients and abiotic changes. In this study, we analyzed the leaf morphological variation of two rare and Mexican endemic Symplocos species (S. coccinea and S. speciosa) occurring eastern Mexico on sites with different microclimate and elevation but similar floristic composition. We quantified how the abiotic factors (i.e. canopy openness, soil temperature, soil moisture, and litter depth) and site elevation influence the leaf traits of these tree species. Symplocos coccinea (with toothed leaf margins) is adapted to high humid conditions and high canopy coverage, while S. speciosa (with almost entire leaf margins) is resilient to environments with moisture deficit and high temperatures. Process-based research with fine-spatial scales at montane ecosystems are needed to understand the resilience and morphological variations of montane tree species under climate change worldwide. In this study, we confirmed that the Symplocos leaf morphological traits (i.e. leaf length, leaf width, leaf shape index, leaf base angle and vein density) are strongly influenced by abiotic conditions (i.e. canopy openness, litterfall depth, soil moisture and soil temperature).

     

Tree diversity patterns in successive vegetation types along an elevation gradient in the Mountains of Eastern Mexico

Tree species richness changes along elevation gradients in response to underlying environmental conditions. Our hypothesis was that richness is associated with climatic variables and decreases with elevation. The objective was to identify trends in species, genus and family richness, diversity and vegetation structure in relation to climate variables along an elevation gradient with successive types of forest in Veracruz, Mexico. Trees were identified and measured in 0.1 ha at 15 sites located from 140 to 4000 m a.s.l. Generalized linear models were used to fit richness, diversity, basal area and density as a function of elevation; the best model was selected using Akaike’s Information Criterion. Multivariate analyses were used to explore climatic variables associated to composition of groups of sites along the gradient. Along the entire elevation gradient, species, genus and family richness decreased unimodally, and diversity decreased monotonically. Richness was positively correlated with temperature but not with precipitation. Basal area increased monotonically and highest basal area was associated with high humidity and certain tree species (Quercus and Abies). Ordinations indicated three groups of sites: lower elevation dry forest associated with temperature seasonality, mid-elevation cloud forest associated with precipitation-related variables, and coniferous forest at the top of the gradient associated with elevation. Our study shows that different plant communities are associated with certain climatic conditions and harbour different tree species, genera and families. The results support the hypothesis that species richness is associated with climate, and decreases with elevation.     

芦芽山阳坡不同海拔华北落叶松径向生长对气候变化的响应

为研究树木生长对气候变化的响应状况,选取芦芽山阳坡的3个海拔高度建立了华北落叶松(Larix principis-rupprechtii)的树轮宽度年表。年表的统计参数表明,3条年表均为研究气候信息的可靠资料。结果表明,芦芽山阳坡华北落叶松的径向生长和生长与气候的关系均具有海拔差异,中海拔(2440 m)和高海拔(2540 m)的华北落叶松具有相似年际生长变化,而二者均与低海拔(2330 m)华北落叶松的年际生长不同。低海拔华北落叶松的生长与4月平均气温和上一年11月降水量显著负相关,而中海拔和高海拔的生长均与上一年10月平均气温和6月降水量显著负相关。通过年表与气候因子之间的滑动相关分析发现,3个海拔高度华北落叶松生长与气候因子的关系均不稳定,生长与气温条件之间的显著相关关系是随着气温升高而出现的。气温的升高引起了华北落叶松生长与气温因子关系的海拔差异,以及径向生长的海拔差异。这一结果对于气候变化对植被垂直梯度影响的研究具有一定参考价值。     

Growth variation in Abies georgei var. smithii along altitudinal gradients in the Sygera Mountains, southeastern Tibetan Plateau

A network of nine Smith fir (Abies georgei var. smithii) ring-width chronologies was constructed from sites ranging in elevation from 3,550 to 4,390 m above sea level (a.s.l.) in the Sygera Mountains, southeastern Tibetan Plateau. High-elevation trees had lower growth rates than did low-elevation trees. The mean tree-ring series intercorrelation (RBAR) increased with elevation. Principal component analysis identified three elevation zones (around 3,600, 3,800, and >4,200 m a.s.l.) with distinctive tree-ring growth patterns. Five chronologies with elevation >4,200 m a.s.l. were highly correlated. Overall, the initiation of tree-ring growth in Smith fir is controlled by common climatic signals, such as July minimum temperature, across a broad altitudinal range. Precipitation was not a growth-limiting factor across stands. Regardless of differences in stand elevation, topographical aspect, and tree age, the radial growth of Smith fir trees was markedly similar in response to common climatic signals, perhaps as a result of the relatively high-elevation of these forests (above 3,550 m a.s.l.) and the abundant summer monsoon rainfall. In addition, radial tree growth along the altitudinal gradients was indicative of a recent warming trend on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau.     

Ecological requirements of Abies alba in the French Alps derived from dendro-ecological analysis

Abstract. We used dendro-ecological techniques to investigate fundamental relationships between climate and growth of Abies alba (silver fir) in eastern France. Seven Abies forests in the Trièves region of the French Alps were chosen to represent a wide range of ecological conditions based on the results of previous forest vegetation surveys. In each forest, four trees were sampled in each of five different stands with two cores per tree. These 280 cores were studied using two separate dendro-ecological methods: the pointer years method (based on extreme growth events), and correlation functions between tree ring-widths and monthly climatic data. Data from 11 meteorological stations were combined to provide a regional analysis of precipitation and minimum and maximum temperatures. The two dendro-ecological methods appear to be complementary, as the first technique emphasizes common and low intensity linear correlations between ring-widths and climatic variations, and the second method emphasizes extreme and unusual climatic events such as exceptionally cold or dry years. Across all sites, drought in the previous year was consistently correlated with a low growth rate; however, other climatic variables varied substantially among sites. For example, drought in the current year reduced growth more in the low elevation sites than in the high elevation sites and severe winter frost reduced growth the most in the high altitude sites and the driest site. Moreover, certain growth responses are better correlated with the age of the stands, the canopy closure and the floristic composition of the community than the abiotic factors, emphasizing the value of dendro-ecological sampling based on phytosociological units.     

Tree growth variation in the tropical forest: understanding effects of temperature,rainfall and CO2

Tropical forest responses to climatic variability have important consequences for global carbon cycling, but are poorly understood. As empirical, correlative studies cannot disentangle the interactive effects of climatic variables on tree growth, we used a tree growth model (IBTREE) to unravel the climate effects on different physiological pathways and in turn on stem growth variation. We parameterized the model for canopy trees of Toona ciliata (Meliaceae) from a Thai monsoon forest and compared predicted and measured variation from a tree‐ring study over a 30‐year period. We used historical climatic variation of minimum and maximum day temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide (CO₂) in different combinations to estimate the contribution of each climate factor in explaining the inter‐annual variation in stem growth. Running the model with only variation in maximum temperature and rainfall yielded stem growth patterns that explained almost 70% of the observed inter‐annual variation in stem growth. Our results show that maximum temperature had a strong negative effect on the stem growth by increasing respiration, reducing stomatal conductance and thus mitigating a higher transpiration demand, and – to a lesser extent – by directly reducing photosynthesis. Although stem growth was rather weakly sensitive to rain, stem growth variation responded strongly and positively to rainfall variation owing to the strong inter‐annual fluctuations in rainfall. Minimum temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentration did not significantly contribute to explaining the inter‐annual variation in stem growth. Our innovative approach – combining a simulation model with historical data on tree‐ring growth and climate – allowed disentangling the effects of strongly correlated climate variables on growth through different physiological pathways. Similar studies on different species and in different forest types are needed to further improve our understanding of the sensitivity of tropical tree growth to climatic variability and change.     

Leaf mass per area ratio in Quercus ilex leaves under a wide range of climatic conditions. The importance of low temperatures

The Digital Climatic Atlas and the Ecological and the Forestry Inventory of Catalonia (NE Spain) were analysed to study the climate effect on leaf mass per area (LMA) and leaf area index (LAI) on Quercus ilex L., one of the most widely spread tree species in the Mediterranean region. 195 sites in this region of 31,895 km² were considered. The relationship between climatic variables (total annual rainfall, mean annual temperature, mean minimum winter temperatures, and mean annual solar radiation) and LMA and LAI were analysed by simple and multiple regressions. LMA was higher in the drier sites and specially in the colder sites. There was also a significant correlation between solar radiation and LMA. On the contrary, LAI values, which were negatively correlated with LMA values, were lower in drier and colder sites, and were not significantly affected by solar radiation. The results highlight that high LMA values do not seem to be a specific protection to dry conditions but to a wide range of environmental stress factors, including low temperatures.     

Clonal growth in Ailanthus altissima on a natural site in West Virginia

Abstract. : The exotic tree Ailanthus altissima is usually confined to open sites. As an exception, Ailanthus established in a densely closed forest in West Virginia, which was analyzed with the aim to elucidate possible pathways of persistence in forest succession of this light-demanding pioneer species. Demographic analysis revealed a seedling mortality of 100 %. Instead, the understory is populated by clonal ramets, ranging from one to more than 19 yr of age, with a mean of 5 yr. Growth averages only 0.11 m/yr, and height is correlated with age. This clonal growth contrasts with the performance of Ailanthus on open sites. The possible ecological benefits of establishing a ramet bank in a resource-poor habitat are considered in terms of space occupation of a pioneer species.     

Tree growth response to drought and temperature in a mountain landscape in northern Arizona, USA

Aim To understand how tree growth response to regional drought and temperature varies between tree species, elevations and forest types in a mountain landscape. Location Twenty‐one sites on an elevation gradient of 1500 m on the San Francisco Peaks, northern Arizona, USA. Methods Tree‐ring data for the years 1950–2000 for eight tree species (Abies lasiocarpa var. arizonica (Merriam) Lemm., Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelm., Pinus aristata Engelm., Pinus edulis Engelm., Pinus flexilis James, Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws., Pseudotsuga menziesii var. glauca (Beissn.) Franco and Quercus gambelii Nutt.) were used to compare sensitivity of radial growth to regional drought and temperature among co‐occurring species at the same site, and between sites that differed in elevation and species composition. Results For Picea engelmannii, Pinus flexilis, Pinus ponderosa and Pseudotsuga menziesii, trees in drier, low‐elevation stands generally had greater sensitivity of radial growth to regional drought than trees of the same species in wetter, high‐elevation stands. Species low in their elevational range had greater drought sensitivity than co‐occurring species high in their elevational range at the pinyon‐juniper/ponderosa pine forest ecotone, ponderosa pine/mixed conifer forest ecotone and high‐elevation invaded meadows, but not at the mixed conifer/subalpine forest ecotone. Sensitivity of radial growth to regional drought was greater at drier, low‐elevation compared with wetter, high‐elevation forests. Yearly growth was positively correlated with measures of regional water availability at all sites, except high‐elevation invaded meadows where growth was weakly correlated with all climatic factors. Yearly growth in high‐elevation forests up to 3300 m a.s.l. was more strongly correlated with water availability than temperature. Main conclusions Severe regional drought reduced growth of all dominant tree species over a gradient of precipitation and temperature represented by a 1500‐m change in elevation, but response to drought varied between species and stands. Growth was reduced the most in drier, low‐elevation forests and in species growing low in their elevational range in ecotones, and the least for trees that had recently invaded high‐elevation meadows. Constraints on tree growth from drought and high temperature are important for high‐elevation subalpine forests located near the southern‐most range of the dominant species.     

Effects of precipitation on parasite burden along a natural climatic gradient in southern Africa – implications for possible shifts in infestation patterns due to global changes

As a consequence of environmental change, it is expected that shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns will influence parasite communities and their hosts with unpredictable impact. Parasites play a vital role in ecosystems but there is only limited quantitative data which describe the effects of environmental parameters under natural conditions. We investigated the influence of rainfall, relative humidity and temperature on the prevalence, abundance and infection intensity of nematodes in southern Africa by studying the gastro‐intestinal helminth community of the striped mouse Rhabdomys pumilio. Along a precipitation gradient from the Cape of South Africa to northern Namibia we trapped 470 mice over a geographical distance of about 1400 km. Faecal egg counts of 439 sampled individuals and dissections of 161 gastro‐intestinal tracts revealed 15 different helminth species. The most abundant nematode species harboured in 62.6% of all infected mice were the oxyurid Syphacia obvelata followed jointly by two species (Heligmonina spira and Neoheligmonella capensis) of the subfamily Nippostrongylinae (43.7%). We found a significant positive correlation between mean annual precipitation (rainfall and relative humidity) and nematode infestation rates of animals and a negative correlation with temperature. In addition, we found associations between precipitation and different qualitative measurements of parasite burden (mean nematode species richness, mean number of nematode worms and infection intensity per individual host). The similarity in nematode species composition decreased with distance between all study sites. Our study indicates for the first time an association between climatic variables and parasite prevalence and abundance along a continuous natural climatic gradient in a small mammal. These results might be incorporated in the development of models which can predict possible threats for the balance of ecosystems and shifts in infestation patterns due to global changes.     

Climatic signals in tree rings of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Burkea africana</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pterocarpus angolensis</Emphasis> from semiarid forests in Namibia

Tree-ring studies contribute worldwide to the understanding of climate and its relation to tree growth. Long tree-ring chronologies serve as climate proxies for the reconstruction of past, pre-instrument climate and its recent change. In tropical regions, the availability of exactly dated tree-ring chronologies is limited. The dendroclimatic potential of two dominant species from dry forests in northern Namibia was examined in the study presented in this paper. Both species (Burkea africana Hook and Pterocarpus angolensis DC) were sampled at two sites (ca. 900 km apart), and the response to several climatic variables, including ENSO indices, is studied. All specimens showed distinct growth rings and cross-dating between radii was successful for all trees. Species-specific mean curves were built for both sites. The mean curves of different species of the same site synchronised significantly, allowing the construction of a site-specific chronology. Synchronisation between sites was not possible, but spectral analysis of the chronologies implied that both show similar long-term (6.7 year) oscillation patterns. B. africana is more sensitive to rainfall variation than P. angolensis at both sites. Growth response to rainfall was positive, but a time-lag in the reaction occurred between the sites, corresponding to the time-lag of the beginning of the rainy season. Air temperature showed a negative correlation with stem increment at both sites. The response at the westernmost site to two ENSO indices indicates a tree growth decrease during El Niño years, which are generally dry in southern Africa.     

Climate and landscape drivers of tree decline in a Mediterranean ecoregion

Climate change and anthropogenic land use are increasingly affecting the resilience of natural ecosystems. In Mediterranean ecoregions, forests and woodlands have shown progressive declines in health. This study focuses on the decline of an endemic woodland tree species, Eucalyptus wandoo (wandoo), occurring in the biodiversity hotspot of southwest Western Australia. We determined the change in health of wandoo stands between 2002 and 2008 across its geographic and climatic range, and associated this change in health with non‐biotic variables focusing on: (1) fragment metrics; (2) topography; (3) soil characteristics; and (4) climate. Only fragment metrics and climate variables were found to be significantly related to the observed change in health. Stands that were small with high perimeter/area ratios were found to be most sensitive to health declines. Recent increases in autumn temperatures and decreases in annual rainfall were negatively affecting health of wandoo most prominently in the low rainfall zone of its climatic range. Together, these results suggest the onset of range contraction for this ecologically important species, which is likely to be exacerbated by projected future changes in climate. Our results emphasize the importance of establishing monitoring programs to identify changes in health and decline trends early to inform management strategies, particularly in the sensitive Mediterranean ecoregions.     

Consistent performance of invasive plant species within and among islands of the Mediterranean basin

Since the success of an invasive species depends not only upon its intrinsic traits but also on particular characteristics of the recipient habitat, assessing the performance of an invader across habitats provides a more realistic analysis of risk. Such an analysis will not only provide insights into the traits related to invasiveness, but also the habitat characteristics that underpin vulnerability to invasion that, taken together, will facilitate the selection of management strategies to mitigate the invader’s effect. In the present study, we considered the Mediterranean basin islands as an excellent study region to test how the same invasive species perform in different habitats within a single island, and to scale up differences among islands with similar climate. We tested how the performance of three widespread plant invaders with clonal growth but contrasting life-history traits, a deciduous tree Ailanthus altissima, a succulent subshrub Carpobrotus spp., and an annual geophyte Oxalis pes-caprae, varied depending upon the species identity, habitat, and invaded island. The environmental parameters considered were habitat type, elevation, species diversity in the invaded plot, and several soil traits (% C, % N, C/N, pH, and relative humidity). The study documents that the performance of these three important and widespread plant invaders is dependent mainly on species identity, and less upon the invaded island’s general features. Likewise, differences in performance among habitats were only significant in the case of Ailanthus, whereas Carpobrotus and Oxalis appear to perform equally well in different environments. Ailanthus thus appears to have a broader spectrum of invasiveness, being able to invade a larger number of habitat types. On the contrary, Carpobrotus spp. have not yet invaded habitats different from those where the species have been originally introduced and where they are still commonly spread by humans. Oxalis distribution is mainly related to agricultural activities and disturbed sites, and the total area infested by this geophyte may be more reflection of the extent of suitable habitats than of invasiveness or ecological impact. Our results confirm the potential for these species to significantly alter the functioning of ecosystems in the Mediterranean islands and highlight the risk to other islands not yet invaded.     

The potential range of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ailanthus altissima</Emphasis> (tree of heaven) in South Africa: the roles of climate,land use and disturbance

Invasive trees are a major problem in South Africa. Many species are well established whereas others are still in the early stages of invasion. The management of invasive species is most cost effective at the early stages of invasion; it is thus essential to target and contain naturalizing invaders before they spread across the landscape. Multi-scale species distribution models (SDMs) provide useful insights to managers; they combine species-occurrence observations with climatic variables to predict potential distributions of alien species. Applying SDMs in human-dominated ecosystems is complicated because many factors associated with human actions interact in complex ways with climatic and edaphic factors to determine the potential suitability of sites for species. The aim of this study was to determine the degree to which a worldwide invader, A. altissima (Simaroubaceae) has occupied its potential range in South Africa, to identify areas at risk of future invasion. To do this we built a set of SDMs at both global and country scales using climatic, land use and human-footprint data. Climatic data best explained the distribution of A. altissima at the global scale whereas variables reflecting human-mediated disturbances were most influential at the national scale. Our analyses show the importance of human-mediated disturbances at a global scale and human occupancy at a country scale in determining the range limits of A. altissima. Populations of this tree species are already present in most parts of South Africa that are environmentally suitable for the species, and management actions need to focus on preventing increases in density in these areas.     

Effects of amphibian phylogeny,climate and human impact on the occurrence of the amphibian‐killing chytrid fungus

Chytridiomycosis, due to the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), has been associated with the alarming decline and extinction crisis of amphibians worldwide. Because conservation programs are implemented locally, it is essential to understand how the complex interactions among host species, climate and human activities contribute to Bd occurrence at regional scales. Using weighted phylogenetic regressions and model selection, we investigated geographic patterns of Bd occurrence along a latitudinal gradient of 1500 km within a biodiversity hot spot in Chile (1845 individuals sampled from 253 sites and representing 24 species), and its association with climatic, socio‐demographic and economic variables. Analyses show that Bd prevalence decreases with latitude although it has increased by almost 10% between 2008 and 2013, possibly reflecting an ongoing spread of Bd following the introduction of Xenopus laevis. Occurrence of Bd was higher in regions with high gross domestic product (particularly near developed centers) and with a high variability in rainfall regimes, whereas models including other bioclimatic or geographic variables, including temperature, exhibited substantially lower fit and virtually no support based on Akaike weights. In addition, Bd prevalence exhibited a strong phylogenetic signal, with five species having high numbers of infected individuals and higher prevalence than the average of 13.3% across all species. Taken together, our results highlight that Bd in Chile might still be spreading south, facilitated by a subset of species that seem to play an important epidemiological role maintaining this pathogen in the communities, in combination with climatic and human factors affecting the availability and quality of amphibian breeding sites. This information may be employed to design conservation strategies and mitigate the impacts of Bd in the biodiversity hot spot of southern Chile, and similar studies may prove useful to disentangle the role of different factors contributing to the emergence and spread of this catastrophic disease.