A weak upward elevational shift in the distributions of breeding birds in the Italian Alps

Aim To test whether bird assemblages are shifting upwards in their elevational distribution in synchrony with current climate warming and/or habitat changes. Location A gradient of elevation in the Italian Alps (Alta Valsessera, Piedmont). Methods We used data from two recent atlas surveys performed on a 1 × 1 km grid at an 11‐year interval (1992–94 and 2003–05). We modelled the elevational gradient of avifaunal composition, using a sample‐based approach, in an effort to detect evidence for an upward elevational shift of bird zonation. Changes in species richness were controlled for. The results from this analysis were compared with those obtained using a species‐based approach. Changes in climate and landscape between the two surveys were assessed using local meteorological data and Corine Land Cover maps, respectively. Results We detected small avifaunal changes between the two surveys: (1) mean elevations increased for the majority of species, but the average change was not significantly different from zero; (2) the species richness increased, but this was mainly due to an increase in sampling effort; and (3) a change in species composition was detected, which was at the limit of significance and corresponded on average to a 29‐m upward elevational shift in the distribution of the avifauna. The shift was the same for open land and forest bird communities. During the same period, the mean temperature increased by c. 1 °C in the area, and a slight trend towards vegetation closure by woody plants was detected. Main conclusions The use of fine‐scale breeding bird atlases in mountainous regions, together with ordination methods, provides a sensitive tool to test and measure elevational shifts in species ranges, but the results have to be interpreted carefully. In our case, the observed elevational shift in the distributions of the avifauna cannot unambiguously be attributed to climate warming. This shift is smaller than expected from the regional increase in temperature, which raises the question of how closely bird distributions match climate change.     

Habitat change and trade explain the bird assemblage from the La Chimba archaeological site in the northeastern Andes of Ecuador

The nature of tree‐line habitats in the Andes has long been a contentious topic in the ecological literature. Palynological studies suggest that a combination of anthropogenic and natural processes throughout the Holocene contributed to its present form and species composition. This is the first study to use zooarchaeological evidence to reconstruct possible prehistoric changes in these alpine habitats. I analysed the remains of birds from the La Chimba archaeological site in northern Ecuador to assess changes in the bird tree‐line community over three distinct phases (Early, 2640–2390 year BP; Middle, 2390–1994 year BP; Late, 1994–1700 year BP) of this prehistoric settlement. The elevation of this site (3200 m) places it near a steep elevational gradient in vegetation, with the modern tree‐line here at 3500–3600 m. Therefore, non‐local specimens of birds from the lowlands would hint at long‐distance trade. The composition of birds changes through time: species associated with high montane forest and shrubby páramos decrease and species from dry or open montane habitats increase. This trend is dominated by the decrease of Curve‐billed Tinamous Nothoprocta curvirostris (current elevational range 3000–3900 m) and a corresponding increase of specimens of Andean Tinamous Nothoprocta pentlandii (current elevational range 1000–2300 m). The large number of Andean Tinamous is surprising given that presently it occurs no closer than 300 km to the south of the La Chimba site. Overall, 18 of the 43 species of birds identified from La Chimba are likely to be the result of trade. This includes species from the eastern and western lowlands of Ecuador and one possible long‐distance transport from Peru. Prehistoric trade of birds and bird parts was probably common, and prehistoric anthropogenic landscape change and trade in birds should be considered as alternative explanations for species with disjunct populations in and across the Andes.     

Current Analogues of Future Climate Indicate the Likely Response of a Sensitive Montane Tropical Avifauna to a Warming World

Among birds, tropical montane species are likely to be among the most vulnerable to climate change, yet little is known about how climate drives their distributions, nor how to predict their likely responses to temperature increases. Correlative models of species’ environmental niches have been widely used to predict changes in distribution, but direct tests of the relationship between key variables, such as temperature, and species’ actual distributions are few. In the absence of historical data with which to compare observations and detect shifts, space-for-time substitutions, where warmer locations are used as analogues of future conditions, offer an opportunity to test for species’ responses to climate. We collected density data for rainforest birds across elevational gradients in northern and southern subregions within the Australian Wet Tropics (AWT). Using environmental optima calculated from elevational density profiles, we detected a significant elevational difference between the two regions in ten of 26 species. More species showed a positive (19 spp.) than negative (7 spp.) displacement, with a median difference of ∼80.6 m across the species analysed that is concordant with that expected due to latitudinal temperature differences (∼75.5 m). Models of temperature gradients derived from broad-scale climate surfaces showed comparable performance to those based on in-situ measurements, suggesting the former is sufficient for modeling impacts. These findings not only confirm temperature as an important factor driving elevational distributions of these species, but also suggest species will shift upslope to track their preferred environmental conditions. Our approach uses optima calculated from elevational density profiles, offering a data-efficient alternative to distribution limits for gauging climate constraints, and is sensitive enough to detect distribution shifts in this avifauna in response to temperature changes of as little as 0.4 degrees. We foresee important applications in the urgent task of detecting and monitoring impacts of climate change on montane tropical biodiversity.     

Projected changes in elevational distribution and flight performance of montane Neotropical hummingbirds in response to climate change

The hovering flight of hummingbirds is one of the most energetically demanding forms of animal locomotion and is influenced by both atmospheric oxygen availability and air density. Montane Neotropical hummingbirds are expected to shift altitudinally upwards in response to climate change to track their ancestral climatic regime, which is predicted to influence their flight performance. In this study, we use the climate envelope approach to estimate upward elevational shifts for five Andean hummingbird species under two climate change scenarios. We then use field‐based data on hummingbird flight mechanics to estimate the resulting impact of climate change on aerodynamic performance in hovering flight. Our results show that in addition to significant habitat loss and fragmentation, projected upwards elevational shifts vary between 300 and 700 m, depending on climate change scenario and original mean elevation of the target species. Biomechanical analysis indicates that such upwards elevational shifts would yield a～2–5° increase in wing stroke amplitude with no substantial effect on wingbeat frequency. Overall, the physiological impact of elevational shifts of <1000 m in response to climate change is likely to be small relative to other factors such as habitat loss, changes in floristic composition, and increased interspecific competition.     

The foraging profile of a wandoo woodland avifauna in early spring

Abstract This study reports on the foraging profile of a wandoo woodland avifauna at Dryandra in Western Australia, Australia. Despite its geographical isolation, wandoo woodland shares a large number of species with woodland bird communities in eastern Australia and there are broad similarities in community foraging profiles. Insect-eating birds using ground, bark, foliage, and aerial substrates dominate eucalypt bird communities. Nectar-feeding and seed/fruit-eating guilds are important components of the Australian avifauna, but have fewer species, and vary in composition and abundance as nectar, seed, and fruit availability changes seasonally and from year to year, and from one locality to another. Despite similarities, there are also differences between the foraging profile of the wandoo avifauna and those in eastern Australia. Specifically, the wandoo avifauna is characterized by a high proportion of ground-foraging species. In addition, many wandoo woodland birds appear to spread their foraging over a wider range of substrates (i.e., ground, bark, and foliage) than eastern species. Differences in habitat structure do not explain these differences in community foraging profiles, and there may be differences in the abundance, kind, and spatial distribution of resources between different eucalypt ecosystems. Possibly the eastern communities have lost ground-dwelling components of their avifauna since European settlement, while the woodlands at Dryandra retain a more intact avifauna. The reasons why some species and not others are lost from woodlands as a result of European land management practices are discussed.     

Modelling the responses of Australian subtropical rainforest birds to changes in environmental conditions along elevational gradients

Montane birds face significant threats from a warming climate, so determining the environmental factors that most strongly influence the composition of such assemblages is of critical conservation importance. Changes in temperature and other environmental conditions along elevational gradients are known to influence the species richness and abundance of bird assemblages occupying mountains. However, the role of species‐specific traits in mediating the responses of bird species to changing conditions remains poorly understood. We aimed to determine whether different bird species responded differently to changing environmental conditions in a relatively understudied biodiversity hotspot in subtropical rainforest on the east coast of Australia. We examined patterns in avian species richness and abundance along two rainforest elevational gradients using monthly point counts between September 2015 and October 2016. Environmental data on temperature, wetness, canopy cover and canopy height were collected simultaneously, and trait information on body size and feeding guild membership for each bird species was obtained from the Handbook of Australian, New Zealand and Antarctic Birds. We used a generalized linear mixed modelling (GLMM) framework to determine the drivers of species richness and abundance and to quantify species’ trait–environment interactions. GLMMs indicated that temperature alone was significantly positively correlated with species richness and abundance. Species richness declined with increasing elevation. When modelling abundance, we found that feeding guild membership did not significantly affect species’ responses to environmental conditions. In contrast, the predicted abundance of a species was found to depend on its body size, due to significant positive interactions between this trait, temperature and canopy cover. Our findings indicate that large‐bodied birds are likely to increase in abundance more rapidly than small‐bodied birds with continued climatic warming. These results underline the importance of temperature as a driving factor of avian community assembly along environmental gradients.     

A review and meta‐analysis of the effects of climate change on Holarctic mountain and upland bird populations

Mountain regions are globally important areas for biodiversity but are subject to multiple human‐induced threats, including climate change, which has been more severe at higher elevations. We reviewed evidence for impacts of climate change on Holarctic mountain bird populations in terms of physiology, phenology, trophic interactions, demography and observed and projected distribution shifts, including effects of other factors that interact with climate change. We developed an objective classification of high‐elevation, mountain specialist and generalist species, based on the proportion of their breeding range occurring in mountain regions. Our review found evidence of responses of mountain bird populations to climate (extreme weather events, temperature, rainfall and snow) and environmental (i.e. land use) change, but we know little about either the underlying mechanisms or the synergistic effects of climate and land use. Long‐term studies assessing reproductive success or survival of mountain birds in relation to climate change were rare. Few studies have considered shifts in elevational distribution over time and a meta‐analysis did not find a consistent direction in elevation change. A meta‐analysis carried out on future projections of distribution shifts suggested that birds whose breeding distributions are largely restricted to mountains are likely to be more negatively impacted than other species. Adaptation responses to climate change rely mostly on managing and extending current protected areas for both species already present, and for expected colonizing species that are losing habitat and climate space at lower elevation. However, developing effective management actions requires an improvement in the current knowledge of mountain species ecology, in the quality of climate data and in understanding the role of interacting factors. Furthermore, the evidence was mostly based on widespread species rather than mountain specialists. Scientists should provide valuable tools to assess the status of mountain birds, for example through the development of a mountain bird population index, and policy‐makers should influence legislation to develop efficient agri‐environment schemes and forestry practices for mountain birds, as well as to regulate leisure activities at higher elevations.     

Bird diversity along elevational gradients in the Andes of Colombia: area and mass effects

Aim The decrease in species richness with increasing elevation is a widely recognized pattern. However, recent work has shown that there is variation in the shape of the curve, such that both negative monotonic or unimodal patterns occur, influenced by a variety of factors at local and regional scales. Discerning the shape of the curve may provide clues to the underlying causes of the observed pattern. At regional scales, the area of the altitudinal belts and mass effects are important determinants of species richness. This paper explores the relationship between bird species richness, elevation, mass effects and area of altitudinal zones for birds in tropical mountains. Location The three Andean ranges of Colombia and the peripheral mountain ranges of La Macarena and Santa Marta. Methods Lists of bird species were compiled for altitudinal belts in eastern and western slopes of the three Andean Cordilleras and for La Macarena and Santa Marta. The area of the altitudinal belts was computed from digital elevation models. The effect of area was analysed by testing for differences among altitudinal belts in the slopes and intercepts of the species‐area relationships. Mass effects were explored by separately analysing two sets of species: broadly distributed species, i.e. lowland species whose distributions extend into the Andes, and tropical Andean species, i.e., species that evolved in the Andes. Results Plotting total number of species in each altitudinal belt revealed a decline in species richness with elevation. In slopes with a complete elevational gradient from lowlands to mountain peaks, the decrease was monotonic. In internal Andean slopes where the lower elevational belts are truncated, there was a peak at mid elevations. There was a linear relationship between number of species and area of the altitudinal belts. When controlling for area, there were no differences in the number of species among altitudinal belts (500–2600 m), except for the two upper‐elevation zones (2600–3200 and > 3200 m), which had lower species richness. Diversity of widely distributed species declined monotonically with elevation, whereas tropical Andean species exhibited a mid‐elevation peak. Main conclusions A large proportion of the variation in species richness with elevation was explained by area of the altitudinal belts. When controlling for area, species richness remained constant up to 2600 m and then decreased. This pattern contrasts with a previously reported hump‐shaped pattern for Andean birds. Diversity patterns of widely distributed species suggested that immigration of lowland species inflates diversity of lower elevational belts through mass effects. This influence was particularly evident in slopes with complete altitudinal gradients (i.e. connected to the lowlands). Tropical Andean species, in contrast, were more diverse in mid‐elevational belts, where speciation rates are expected to be higher. The influence of these species was more prevalent in internal Andean slopes with no connection to the lowlands. The decline of species richness at high elevations may be related to higher extinction rates and lower resource levels.     

Upslope migration of Andean trees

Aim Climate change causes shifts in species distributions, or ‘migrations’. Despite the centrality of species distributions to biodiversity conservation, the demonstrated large migration of tropical plant species in response to climate change in the past, and the expected sensitivity of species distributions to modern climate change, no study has tested for modern species migrations in tropical plants. Here we conduct a first test of the hypothesis that increasing temperatures are causing tropical trees to migrate to cooler areas. Location Tropical Andes biodiversity hotspot, south‐eastern Peru, South America. Methods We use data from repeated (2003/04–2007/08) censuses of 14 1‐ha forest inventory plots spanning an elevational gradient from 950 to 3400 m in Manu National Park in south‐eastern Peru, to characterize changes in the elevational distributions of 38 Andean tree genera. We also analyse changes in the genus‐level composition of the inventory plots through time. Results We show that most tropical Andean tree genera shifted their mean distributions upslope over the study period and that the mean rate of migration is approximately 2.5–3.5 vertical metres upslope per year. Consistent with upward migrations we also find increasing abundances of tree genera previously distributed at lower elevations in the majority of study plots. Main conclusions These findings are in accord with the a priori hypothesis of upward shifts in species ranges due to elevated temperatures, and are potentially the first documented evidence of present‐day climate‐driven migrations in a tropical plant community. The observed mean rate of change is less than predicted from the temperature increases for the region, possibly due to the influence of changes in moisture or non‐climatic factors such as substrate, species interactions, lags in tree community response and/or dispersal limitations. Whatever the cause(s), continued slower‐than‐expected migration of tropical Andean trees would indicate a limited ability to respond to increased temperatures, which may lead to increased extinction risks with further climate change.     

Interrogating recent range changes in South African birds: confounding signals from land use and climate change present a challenge for attribution

Aim Apparent anthropogenic warming has been underway in South Africa for several decades, a period over which significant range shifts have been observed in some indigenous bird species. We asked whether these range shifts by birds are clearly consistent with either climate change or land use change being the primary driver. Location South Africa. Methods We categorized recent range changes among 408 South African terrestrial bird species and, using generalized linear mixed models, analysed ecological attributes of those species that have and have not changed their ranges. Results Fifty‐six of the 408 taxa studied have undergone significant range shifts. Most extended their ranges towards the south (towards cooler latitudes, consistent with climate‐change drivers) or west (towards drier and warmer habitats, inconsistent with climate drivers but consistent with land use drivers); very few moved east or north. Both southward and westward movers were habitat generalists. Furthermore, southward movers were mobile taxa (migrants and nomads), whereas westward movers were associated with human‐modified elements in the landscape, such as croplands, plantations or buildings. Main conclusions The results suggest that both land use changes and climate change may simultaneously be influencing dynamic range shifts by South African birds, but separating the relative strengths of these two drivers is challenging, not least because both are operating concurrently and may influence some species simultaneously. Those species that respond to land use change by contracting their ranges are likely to be among the species that will be most impacted by climate change if land use practices with negative impacts are occurring in areas anticipated to become climatic refugia for these species. This highlights a pressing need to develop dynamic models of species’ potential range shifts and changing abundances that incorporate population and dispersal processes, as well as ecological processes that influence habitat suitability.     

Changes in desert avifauna associated with the functional extinction of a terrestrial top predator

We investigated how long‐term suppression of populations of a top predator, the dingo Canis dingo, affected composition of sympatric avifauna in Australian deserts, by surveying bird assemblages across ~80 000 km² of arid dune‐fields on either side of the Dingo Barrier Fence (DBF; a 5614 km‐long fence separating ecosystems in which dingoes are abundant from ecosystems in which dingoes are functionally extinct). Using fourth‐corner modelling, incorporating species’ traits, we identified apparent declines of sedentary birds that nest in low vegetation and small birds that feed primarily on grass seed, and increases in scavenging birds associated with the functional extinction of dingoes. Occupancy differed between sites inside and outside the DBF in 13 bird species. We hypothesise that these differences in bird assemblages across the DBF result, in part, from increases in kangaroos Macropus spp. and red foxes Vulpes vulpes in arid landscapes where dingoes have been removed. Our study provides evidence that the functional extinction of a large terrestrial predator has had pervasive ecosystem effects, including shifts in composition of avian assemblages.     

Birds on the move in the face of climate change: High species turnover in northern Europe

Species richness is predicted to increase in the northern latitudes in the warming climate due to ranges of many southern species expanding northwards. We studied changes in the composition of the whole avifauna and in bird species richness in a period of already warming climate in Finland (in northern Europe) covering 1,100 km in south–north gradient across the boreal zone (over 300,000 km²). We compared bird species richness and species‐specific changes (for all 235 bird species that occur in Finland) in range size (number of squares occupied) and range shifts (measured as median of area of occupancy) based on bird atlas studies between 1974–1989 and 2006–2010. In addition, we tested how the habitat preference and migration strategy of species explain species‐specific variation in the change of the range size. The study was carried out in 10 km squares with similar research intensity in both time periods. The species richness did not change significantly between the two time periods. The composition of the bird fauna, however, changed considerably with 37.0% of species showing an increase and 34.9% a decrease in the numbers of occupied squares, that is, about equal number of species gained and lost their range. Altogether 95.7% of all species (225/235) showed changes either in the numbers of occupied squares or they experienced a range shift (or both). The range size of archipelago birds increased and long‐distance migrants declined significantly. Range loss observed in long‐distance migrants is in line with the observed population declines of long‐distance migrants in the whole Europe. The results show that there is an ongoing considerable species turnover due to climate change and due to land use and other direct human influence. High bird species turnover observed in northern Europe may also affect the functional diversity of species communities.     

Multidirectional abundance shifts among North American birds and the relative influence of multifaceted climate factors

Shifts in species distributions are major fingerprint of climate change. Examining changes in species abundance structures at a continental scale enables robust evaluation of climate change influences, but few studies have conducted these evaluations due to limited data and methodological constraints. In this study, we estimate temporal changes in abundance from North American Breeding Bird Survey data at the scale of physiographic strata to examine the relative influence of different components of climatic factors and evaluate the hypothesis that shifting species distributions are multidirectional in resident bird species in North America. We quantify the direction and velocity of the abundance shifts of 57 permanent resident birds over 44 years using a centroid analysis. For species with significant abundance shifts in the centroid analysis, we conduct a more intensive correlative analysis to identify climate components most strongly associated with composite change of abundance within strata. Our analysis focus on two contrasts: the relative importance of climate extremes vs. averages, and of temperature vs. precipitation in strength of association with abundance change. Our study shows that 36 species had significant abundance shifts over the study period. The average velocity of the centroid is 5.89 km·yr^?1. The shifted distance on average covers 259 km, 9% of range extent. Our results strongly suggest that the climate change fingerprint in studied avian distributions is multidirectional. Among 6 directions with significant abundance shifts, the northwestward shift was observed in the largest number of species (n = 13). The temperature/average climate model consistently has greater predictive ability than the precipitation/extreme climate model in explaining strata‐level abundance change. Our study shows heterogeneous avian responses to recent environmental changes. It highlights needs for more species‐specific approaches to examine contributing factors to recent distributional changes and for comprehensive conservation planning for climate change adaptation.     

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum), an introduced mosquito‐borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird–mosquito–malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid‐century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.     

Bird community composition across an Andean tree‐line ecotone

Few studies have found strong evidence to suggest that ecotones promote species richness and diversity. In this study we examine the responses of a high‐Andean bird community to changes in vegetation and topographical characteristics across an Andean tree‐line ecotone and adjacent cloud forest and puna grassland vegetation in southern Peru. Over a 6‐month period, birds and vegetation were surveyed using a 100 m fixed‐width Distance Sampling point count method. Vegetation analyses revealed that the tree‐line ecotone represented a distinctive high‐Andean vegetation community that was easily differentiated from the adjacent cloud forest and puna grassland based on changes in tree‐size characteristics and vegetation cover. Bird community composition was strongly seasonal and influenced by a pool of bird species from a wider elevational gradient. There were also clear differences in bird community measures between tree‐line vegetation, cloud forest and puna grassland with species turnover (β‐diversity) most pronounced at the tree‐line. Canonical Correspondence Analysis revealed that the majority of the 81 bird species were associated with tree‐line vegetation. Categorizing patterns of relative abundance of the 42 most common species revealed that the tree‐line ecotone was composed primarily of cloud forest specialists and habitat generalists, with very few species from the puna grassland. Only two species, Thlypopsis ruficeps and Anairetes parulus, both widespread Andean species more typical of montane woodland vegetation edges, were categorized as ecotone specialists. However, our findings were influenced by significant differences in species detectability between all three vegetation communities. Our study highlights the importance of examining ecotones at an appropriate spatial and temporal scale. Selecting a suitable distance between sampling points based on the detection probabilities of the target bird species is essential to obtain an unbiased picture of how ecotones influence avian richness and diversity.     

Resource tracking by avian frugivores in mountain habitats of northern Spain

Systems comprising avian frugivores and fleshy‐fruited plants are commonly used as models to study how animals respond to temporal and spatial variations in food abundance and distribution. Results have been far from conclusive, partly because of methodological constraints. In this study we investigated the fulfilment of a necessary condition for food tracking: correlation over time and space between the abundance of food and the abundance of food trackers. We used a paired‐sample design in which fruit sites were compared with fruitless sites on two different spatial scales (landscape and habitat patch) in eight different river basins in the Cantabrian Mountains (NW Spain). Fruit and bird abundances were recorded monthly (October to February) at all sites during three consecutive fruiting seasons. Fruiting seasons (“years”) could be ranked by fruit abundance as low (2003), intermediate (2002) and high (2004). Since fruit sites were located at considerably higher elevations than fruitless sites, the possible effects of altitude, together with those of other uninvestigated factors, were taken into account by using non‐frugivorous birds. Our results apparently suggest a temporal and spatial association between frugivores (avian seed dispersers) and fruit availability at the landscape scale but not at the smaller (habitat patch) scale. This, together with the absence of a similar pattern in non‐frugivores, suggests that fruit availability is an important ecological factor affecting the autumn and winter abundance patterns of frugivorous birds and that this factor operates at the landscape scale but not at the habitat patch scale. Moreover, the negative elevational gradient in bird abundance that is typical of temperate mountain ecosystems was clearly reversed for frugivores in the intermediate and high fruiting years (suggesting that the negative effect of higher altitude may have been counterbalanced by the greater availability of food). As in other European upland areas, traditional farming practices in the Cantabrian Mountains are declining and, as a result, the proportion of fruitless habitats is increasing. Our study suggests that in these upland ecosystems frugivorous bird abundances in autumn and winter are associated to fruit supply, thus this habitat change tendency will probably have, in the long‐term, a negative effect on bird populations.     

Breeding upwards when climate is becoming warmer: no bird response in the French Alps

Altitudinal shifts in distribution were investigated in forest breeding birds, along two elevational gradients in the French northern and southern Alps, from counts repeated at exactly the same locations in the 1970s and the 2000s. Significant shifts were reported for eight of 24 species in the northern alpine site (five downwards, three upwards) and for two of the 17 species in the southern site (one downwards, one upwards). Apart from the Crested Tit Parus cristatus , which shifted significantly downwards at both sites, altitudinal shifts were not significantly correlated between sites. Bird communities did not shift their distribution upwards despite a 2.3 °C increase in spring temperatures in the two study areas. These results suggest that bird distributions by altitude have not yet been affected by climatic warming, and that most specific elevational shifts are probably related to site-specific factors.     

Protected area networks and savannah bird biodiversity in the face of climate change and land degradation

The extent to which climate change might diminish the efficacy of protected areas is one of the most pressing conservation questions. Many projections suggest that climate‐driven species distribution shifts will leave protected areas impoverished and species inadequately protected while other evidence suggests that intact ecosystems within protected areas will be resilient to change. Here, we tackle this problem empirically. We show how recent changes in distribution of 139 Tanzanian savannah bird species are linked to climate change, protected area status and land degradation. We provide the first evidence of climate‐driven range shifts for an African bird community. Our results suggest that the continued maintenance of existing protected areas is an appropriate conservation response to the challenge of climate and environmental change.     

Climate- and resource-driven long-term changes in dormice populations negatively affect hole-nesting songbirds

Global climate change has been shown to cause variable shifts in phenology in a variety of animals and unexpected outcomes across food chains are to be found. Here we examined how rising annual spring temperatures affected the interactions between seed masting, cavity nesting birds and dormice using long-term data from Eastern Czech Republic. We have shown that climate change was associated with unequal shifts in the phenology of two cavity-breeding groups: dormice and birds. Rising spring temperatures have progressively advanced the termination of hibernation for the edible dormouse Glis glis , a common bird predator, leading to an increasing overlap in the use of nesting boxes between dormice and birds. In contrast, only the collared flycatcher Ficedula albicollis , of the four cavity-nesting bird species, advanced its breeding dates in response to rising temperatures. At the same time, favourable weather conditions, coupled with good seed masting years, have been associated with a substantial rise in dormice numbers. Concurrent with the increasing dormice abundance, the number of bird nests destroyed significantly increased in three out of four bird species. We showed that while there was a significant change in the date that the dormice emerged from hibernation during the course of the study, it did not significantly contribute to predation levels when controlling for their abundance and timing of breeding in birds. We found that the increasing dormice abundance was the main factor causing high brood losses in birds, while the timing of breeding in birds had a variable effect between bird species. This study illustrates how changes in climate might affect organisms at various trophic levels with often unexpected outcomes. Limited evidence from other study organisms suggests that species most at risk are those at different trophic levels that do not shift at the same rate or in the same direction as their food resources, predators or competitors.     

Climate change in our backyards: the reshuffling of North America's winter bird communities

Much of the recent changes in North American climate have occurred during the winter months, and as result, overwintering birds represent important sentinels of anthropogenic climate change. While there is mounting evidence that bird populations are responding to a warming climate (e.g., poleward shifts) questions remain as to whether these species‐specific responses are resulting in community‐wide changes. Here, we test the hypothesis that a changing winter climate should favor the formation of winter bird communities dominated by warm‐adapted species. To do this, we quantified changes in community composition using a functional index – the Community Temperature Index (CTI) – which measures the balance between low‐ and high‐temperature dwelling species in a community. Using data from Project FeederWatch, an international citizen science program, we quantified spatiotemporal changes in winter bird communities (n = 38 bird species) across eastern North America and tested the influence of changes in winter minimum temperature over a 22‐year period. We implemented a jackknife analysis to identify those species most influential in driving changes at the community level and the population dynamics (e.g., extinction or colonization) responsible for these community changes. Since 1990, we found that the winter bird community structure has changed with communities increasingly composed of warm‐adapted species. This reshuffling of winter bird communities was strongest in southerly latitudes and driven primarily by local increases in abundance and regional patterns of colonization by southerly birds. CTI tracked patterns of changing winter temperature at different temporal scales ranging from 1 to 35 years. We conclude that a shifting winter climate has provided an opportunity for smaller, southerly distributed species to colonize new regions and promote the formation of unique winter bird assemblages throughout eastern North America.