Population Viability and Vital Rate Sensitivity of an Endangered Avian Cooperative Breeder,the White-Breasted Thrasher (Ramphocinclus brachyurus)

Social behaviors can significantly affect population viability, and some behaviors might reduce extinction risk. We used population viability analysis to evaluate effects of past and proposed habitat loss on the White-breasted Thrasher (Ramphocinclus brachyurus), a cooperatively breeding songbird with a global population size of <2000 individuals. We used an individual-based approach to build the first demographic population projection model for this endangered species, parameterizing the model with data from eight years of field study before and after habitat loss within the stronghold of the species’ distribution. The recent habitat loss resulted in an approximately 18% predicted decline in population size; this estimate was mirrored by a separate assessment using occupancy data. When mortality rates remained close to the pre-habitat loss estimate, quasi-extinction probability was low under extant habitat area, but increased with habitat loss expected after current plans for resort construction are completed. Post-habitat loss mortality rate estimates were too high for projected populations to persist. Vital rate sensitivity analyses indicated that population growth rate and population persistence were most sensitive to juvenile mortality. However, observed values for adult mortality were closest to the threshold value above which populations would crash. Adult mortality, already relatively low, may have the least capacity to change compared to other vital rates, whereas juvenile mortality may have the most capacity for improvement. Results suggest that improving mortality estimates and determining the cause(s) of juvenile mortality should be research priorities. Despite predictions that aspects of cooperative systems may result in variation in reproduction or juvenile mortality being the most sensitive vital rates, adult mortality was the most sensitive in half of the demographic models of other avian cooperative breeders. Interestingly, vital rate sensitivity differed by model type. However, studies that explicitly modeled the species’ cooperative breeding system found reproduction to be the most sensitive rate.     

Exploring rarity using a general model for distribution and abundance

We describe a simple model for changes in the distribution and abundance of a metapopulation and use it to explore the conditions leading to different types of rarity. The model suggests that localized populations (those with low patch occupancy but high local abundance) arise from low dispersal, low heterogeneity in extant population size, and frequent local extinctions relative to the potential for recolonization. Scarce populations (with low distribution and abundance) arise when relative local extinction rate is low to moderate and heterogeneity is high or successful dispersal is relatively low. Sparse populations (widespread, but with low local abundance) arise when relative local extinction rate is very low and either spatial heterogeneity or mortality through unsuccessful dispersal is high. In sparse or common species, there may be unstable as well as stable equilibria, implying a threshold distribution and abundance for persistence. The model supports a general correlation between distribution and abundance and suggests that persistence may be threatened by dispersal rates being either too high or too low. The model provides a new perspective on rarity and suggests a simple theoretical foundation for understanding the population-dynamic mechanisms that determine distribution and abundance.     

Spreading speed, traveling waves, and minimal domain size in impulsive reaction-diffusion models

How growth, mortality, and dispersal in a species affect the species' spread and persistence constitutes a central problem in spatial ecology. We propose impulsive reaction-diffusion equation models for species with distinct reproductive and dispersal stages. These models can describe a seasonal birth pulse plus nonlinear mortality and dispersal throughout the year. Alternatively, they can describe seasonal harvesting, plus nonlinear birth and mortality as well as dispersal throughout the year. The population dynamics in the seasonal pulse is described by a discrete map that gives the density of the population at the end of a pulse as a possibly nonmonotone function of the density of the population at the beginning of the pulse. The dynamics in the dispersal stage is governed by a nonlinear reaction-diffusion equation in a bounded or unbounded domain. We develop a spatially explicit theoretical framework that links species vital rates (mortality or fecundity) and dispersal characteristics with species' spreading speeds, traveling wave speeds, as well as minimal domain size for species persistence. We provide an explicit formula for the spreading speed in terms of model parameters, and show that the spreading speed can be characterized as the slowest speed of a class of traveling wave solutions. We also give an explicit formula for the minimal domain size using model parameters. Our results show how the diffusion coefficient, and the combination of discrete- and continuous-time growth and mortality determine the spread and persistence dynamics of the population in a wide variety of ecological scenarios. Numerical simulations are presented to demonstrate the theoretical results.     

Disease dynamics and persistence of Musca domestica salivary gland hypertrophy virus infections in laboratory house fly (Musca domestica) populations

Past surveys of feral house fly populations have shown that Musca domestica salivary gland hypertrophy virus (MdSGHV) has a worldwide distribution, with an average prevalence varying between 0.5% and 10%. How this adult-specific virus persists in nature is unknown. In the present study, experiments were conducted to examine short-term transmission efficiency and long-term persistence of symptomatic MdSGHV infections in confined house fly populations. Average rates of disease transmission from virus-infected to healthy flies in small populations of 50 or 100 flies ranged from 3% to 24% and did not vary between three tested geographical strains that originated from different continents. Introduction of an initial proportion of 40% infected flies into fly populations did not result in epizootics. Instead, long-term observations demonstrated that MdSGHV infection levels declined over time, resulting in a 10% infection rate after passing through 10 filial generations. In all experiments, induced disease rates were significantly higher in male flies than in female flies and might be explained by male-specific behaviors that increased contact with viremic flies and/or virus-contaminated surfaces.     

Steinernema feltiae Intraspecific Variability: Infection Dynamics and Sex-Ratio

Entomopathogenic nematodes (EPNs) from the Heterorhabditidae and Steinernematidae families are well-known biocontrol agents against numerous insect pests. The infective juveniles (IJs) are naturally occurring in the soil and their success in locating and penetrating the host will be affected by extrinsic/intrinsic factors that modulate their foraging behavior. Characterizing key traits in the infection dynamics of EPNs is critical for establishing differentiating species abilities to complete their life cycles and hence, their long-term persistence, in different habitats. We hypothesized that phenotypic variation in traits related to infection dynamics might occur in populations belonging to the same species. To assess these intraspecific differences, we evaluated the infection dynamics of 14 populations of Steinernema feltiae in two experiments measuring penetration and migration in sand column. Intraspecific variability was observed in the percentage larval mortality, time to kill the insect, penetration rate, and sex-ratio in both experiments (P < 0.01). Larval mortality and nematode penetration percentage were lower in migration experiments than in penetration ones in most of the cases. The sex-ratio was significantly biased toward female-development dominance (P < 0.05). When the populations were grouped by habitat of recovery (natural areas, crop edge, and agricultural groves), nematodes isolated in natural areas exhibited less larval mortality and penetration rates than those from some types of agricultural associated soils, suggesting a possible effect of the habitat on the phenotypic plasticity. This study reinforces the importance of considering intraspecific variability when general biological and ecological questions are addressed using EPNs.     

Impacts of enemy-mediated effects and the additivity of interactions in an insect trophic system

In this study, we used data from both experiments and mathematical simulations to analyze the consequences of the interacting effects of intraguild predation (IGP), cannibalism and parasitism occurring in isolation and simultaneously in trophic interactions involving two blowfly species under shared parasitism. We conducted experiments to determine the short-term response of two blowfly species to these interactions with respect to their persistence. A mathematical model was employed to extend the results obtained from these experiments to the long-term consequences of these interactions for the persistence of the blowfly species. Our experimental results revealed that IGP attenuated the strength of the effects of cannibalism and parasitism between blowfly host species, increasing the probability of persistence of both populations. The simulations obtained from the mathematical model indicated that IGP is a key interaction for the long-term dynamics of this system. The presence of different species interacting in a tri-trophic system relaxed the severity of the effects of a particular interaction between two species, changing species abundances and promoting persistence through time. This pattern was related to indirect interactions with a third species, the parasitoid species included in this study.     

Life-history evolution in guppies viii: the demographics of density regulation in guppies (poecilia reticulata)

In prior research, we found the way guppy life histories evolve in response to living in environments with a high or low risk of predation is consistent with life-history theory that assumes no density dependence. We later found that guppies from high-predation environments experience higher mortality rates than those from low-predation environments, but the increased risk was evenly distributed across all age/size classes. Life-history theory that assumes density-independent population growth predicts that life histories will not evolve under such circumstances, yet we have shown with field introduction experiments that they do evolve. However, theory that incorporates density regulation predicts this pattern of mortality can result in the patterns of life-history evolution we had observed. Here we report on density manipulation experiments performed in populations of guppies from low-predation environments to ask whether natural populations normally experience density regulation and, if so, to characterize the short-term demographic changes that underlie density regulation. Our experiments reveal that these populations are density regulated. Decreased density resulted in higher juvenile growth, decreased juvenile mortality rates, and increased reproductive investment by adult females. Increased density causes reduced offspring size, decreased fat storage by adult females, and increased adult mortality.     

Jensen’s Inequality and the Impact of Short-Term Environmental Variability on Long-Term Population Growth Rates

It is well established in theory that short-term environmental fluctuations could affect the long-term growth rates of wildlife populations, but this theory has rarely been tested and there remains little empirical evidence that the effect is actually important in practice. Here we develop models to quantify the effects of daily, seasonal, and yearly temperature fluctuations on the average population growth rates, and we apply them to long-term data on the endangered Black-faced Spoonbill (Platalea minor); an endothermic species whose population growth rates follow a concave relationship with temperature. We demonstrate for the first time that the current levels of temperature variability, particularly seasonal variability, are already large enough to substantially reduce long-term population growth rates. As the climate changes, our results highlight the importance of considering the ecological effects of climate variability and not just average conditions.     

Predicting predation through prey ontogeny using size-dependent functional response models

The functional response is a critical link between consumer and resource dynamics, describing how a consumer's feeding rate varies with prey density. Functional response models often assume homogenous prey size and size-independent feeding rates. However, variation in prey size due to ontogeny and competition is ubiquitous, and predation rates are often size dependent. Thus, functional responses that ignore prey size may not effectively predict predation rates through ontogeny or in heterogeneous populations. Here, we use short-term response-surface experiments and statistical modeling to develop and test prey size-dependent functional responses for water bugs and dragonfly larvae feeding on red-eyed treefrog tadpoles. We then extend these models through simulations to predict mortality through time for growing prey. Both conventional and size-dependent functional response models predicted average overall mortality in short-term mixed-cohort experiments, but only the size-dependent models accurately captured how mortality was spread across sizes. As a result, simulations that extrapolated these results through prey ontogeny showed that differences in size-specific mortality are compounded as prey grow, causing predictions from conventional and size-dependent functional response models to diverge dramatically through time. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating prey size when modeling consumer-prey dynamics in size-structured, growing prey populations.     

Carry-over effects,sequential density dependence and the dynamics of populations in a seasonal environment

Most animal populations have distinct breeding and non-breeding periods, yet the implications of seasonality on population dynamics are not well understood. Here, we introduce an experimental model system to study the population dynamics of two important consequences of seasonality: sequential density dependence and carry-over effects (COEs). Using a replicated seasonal population of Drosophila, we placed individuals at four densities in the non-breeding season and then, among those that survived, placed them to breed at three different densities. We show that COEs arising from variation in non-breeding density negatively impacts individual performance by reducing per capita breeding output by 29–77%, implying that non-lethal COEs can have a strong influence on population abundance. We then parametrized a bi-seasonal population model from the experimental results, and show that both sequential density dependence and COEs can stabilize long-term population dynamics and that COEs can reduce population size at low intrinsic rates of growth. Our results have important implications for predicting the successful colonization of new habitats, and for understanding the long-term persistence of seasonal populations in a wide range of taxa, including migratory organisms.     

A persistence criterion for metapopulations

Simple conditions to evaluate the persistence of populations living in fragmented habitats are of primary importance in ecology. We address this need here using a spatially implicit approach that accounts for discrete individuals in a metapopulation. Demographic stochasticity is incorporated into a Markovian model in a natural way, as local extinction is characterized by the death or the dispersal of the last individual inhabiting a patch. The variables of the model are the probabilities p(i) (i=0, 1, 2...) that a patch be occupied by a finite, integer number i of individuals at a given time. We compare the stationary distributions predicted by the model with field data and discuss the role of dispersal in determining different distributions of local abundances. The analysis of the model leads to a persistence criterion which is equivalent to a condition formerly proved by Chesson (Z. Wahrscheinlichkeitstheor. 66, 97-107, 1984) namely that E(0)>1, where E(0) is the expected number of successful dispersers from a patch begun with one individual and to which immigration is excluded. We provide an analytic way of computing E(0) as a function of the main biological characteristics of the species (natality, mortality and dispersal rates, and colonizing ability). We can thus obtain persistence-extinction boundaries in the space of model parameters.     

TEMPORAL DYNAMICS OF OUTCROSSING AND HOST MORTALITY RATES IN HOST–PATHOGEN EXPERIMENTAL COEVOLUTION

Cross‐fertilization is predicted to facilitate the short‐term response and the long‐term persistence of host populations engaged in antagonistic coevolutionary interactions. Consistent with this idea, our previous work has shown that coevolving bacterial pathogens (Serratia marcescens) can drive obligately selfing hosts (Caenorhabditis elegans) to extinction, whereas the obligately outcrossing and partially outcrossing populations persisted. We focused the present study on the partially outcrossing (mixed mating) and obligately outcrossing hosts, and analyzed the changes in the host resistance/avoidance (and pathogen infectivity) over time. We found that host mortality rates increased in the mixed mating populations over the first 10 generations of coevolution when outcrossing rates were initially low. However, mortality rates decreased after elevated outcrossing rates evolved during the experiment. In contrast, host mortality rates decreased in the obligately outcrossing populations during the first 10 generations of coevolution, and remained low throughout the experiment. Therefore, predominant selfing reduced the ability of the hosts to respond to coevolving pathogens compared to outcrossing hosts. Thus, we found that host–pathogen coevolution can generate rapid evolutionary change, and that host mating system can influence the outcome of coevolution at a fine temporal scale.     

Developmental schedules and persistence of experimental host-parasitoid systems at two different temperatures

In experimental systems of a bruchid host, Callosobruchus chinensis, and a braconid parasitoid, Heterospilus prosopidis, the effects of changes in developmental schedules were examined in relation to the persistence of the system, or the time to extinction of a component species. We modified the developmental schedules by changing the temperature from 30°C to 32°C. To compare persistence, a long-term system with overlapping generations was set up and the bruchid host resource, azuki beans (Vigna angularis), were renewed every 10 days. The long-term systems showed greater persistence at 30°C than at 32°C. Parasitoid extinction was often observed. We examined differences in life-history characteristics of the component species between the two temperatures by short-term, single-generation experiments. Fecundity and egg hatchability of the host were reduced and the developmental period of the parasitoid was shortened at 32°C. The age at which the host became vulnerable to parasitoid attacks was earlier at 32°C than at 30°C. We constructed a daily based, age-structured model to analyse which life-history change(s) affected the persistence of the long-term systems. The density-dependent population growth of the host was described by a logistic equation and the attack rate of the parasitoid by a type II functional response with mutual interference. The simulation results showed greater persistence at 30°C than at 32°C. Sensitivity analysis showed that there are threshold boundaries in the length of the vulnerable period of the host beyond which system persistence drastically changes. Further, persistence at another temperature, 28°C, was predicted using a model based on short-term data on the host.     

Nautilus at risk--estimating population size and demography of Nautilus pompilius

The low fecundity, late maturity, long gestation and long life span of Nautilus suggest that this species is vulnerable to over-exploitation. Demand from the ornamental shell trade has contributed to their rapid decline in localized populations. More data from wild populations are needed to design management plans which ensure Nautilus persistence. We used a variety of techniques including capture-mark-recapture, baited remote underwater video systems, ultrasonic telemetry and remotely operated vehicles to estimate population size, growth rates, distribution and demographic characteristics of an unexploited Nautilus pompilius population at Osprey Reef (Coral Sea, Australia). We estimated a small and dispersed population of between 844 and 4467 individuals (14.6-77.4 km(-2)) dominated by males (83:17 male:female) and comprised of few juveniles (<10%).These results provide the first Nautilid population and density estimates which are essential elements for long-term management of populations via sustainable catch models. Results from baited remote underwater video systems provide confidence for their more widespread use to assess efficiently the size and density of exploited and unexploited Nautilus populations worldwide.     

Disease persistence in epidemiological models: the interplay between vaccination and migration

We consider the interplay of vaccination and migration rates on disease persistence in epidemiological systems. We show that short-term and long-term migration can inhibit disease persistence. As a result, we show how migration changes how vaccination rates should be chosen to maintain herd immunity. In a system of coupled SIR models, we analyze how disease eradication depends explicitly on vaccine distribution and migration connectivity. The analysis suggests potentially novel vaccination policies that underscore the importance of optimal placement of finite resources.     

Nematodes as Sentinels of Heavy Metals and Organic Toxicants in the Soil

Field and laboratory research has repeatedly shown that free-living soil nematodes differ in their sensitivity to soil pollution. In this paper, we analyze whether nematode genera proved sensitive or tolerant toward heavy metals and organic pollutants in six long-term field experiments. We discuss overlaps between nematode physiological responses to heavy metals and to organic pollutants, which may explain why nematodes can exhibit co-tolerance toward several contaminants. We propose a simple method for separating direct effects of soil contamination on nematode populations from indirect effects mediated through the food chain. Finally, we analyze the extent to which nematodes exhibited consistent responses across the experiments analyzed. Our results show that (a) indirect effects of pollution were generally strong; (b) fewer nematode genera were tolerant than sensitive; (c) many genera, including practically all Adenophorea, exhibited a common response pattern to contaminants; and (d) several genera of the Secernentea exhibited differential tolerance toward particular pollutants. We conclude that bioindication of soil contamination should preferentially be based on tolerant, and less on sensitive, nematodes. We provide a list of nematode genera that may potentially serve as differential bioindicators for specific soil contaminants.     

Modelling Chlamydia–koala interactions: coexistence, population dynamics and conservation implications

1. Considerable research has been conducted on koala Phascolarctos cinereus population dynamics and the epidemiology of Chlamydia psittaci infection in koalas, but the impact of Chlamydia on koala populations has been difficult to assess.
2. I developed a model of koala and Chlamydia population dynamics to examine interactions between Chlamydia transmission and pathogenicity, koala mating behaviour and demography, and koala population persistence.
3. Simulations based on sexual and parent–offspring parasite transmission demonstrate that stable Chlamydia–koala coexistence is possible in a small population for a broad range of demographic, behavioural, pathogenicity and transmission parameter estimations. Koala population persistence was most sensitive to reduced annual survivorship of adults (4–10-year-old males and 2–12-year-old females), highlighting the need for accurate field estimates of adult survivorship in order to assess Chlamydia 's impact on specific populations.
4. If koalas become less resistant to disease in fragmented, high-stress habitats (i.e. experience increased Chlamydia -induced mortality and sterility rates), Chlamydia is not predicted to cause koala extinctions under most conditions. Extinctions are only predicted if Chlamydia transmission rates also increase (e.g. due to new transmission pathways or increased mating frequency), or other non-disease factors change birth and mortality rates to reduce the koala population's intrinsic rate of increase below 0·1.
5. The most important predicted effect of habitat fragmentation and other forms of human disturbance on this unique host–parasite relationship is the extinction of Chlamydia in populations where koala resistance to disease decreases.     

An agent-based modelling approach to estimate error in gyrodactylid population growth

Comparative studies of gyrodactylid monogeneans on different host species or strains rely upon the observation of growth on individual fish maintained within a common environment, summarised using maximum likelihood statistical approaches. Here we describe an agent-based model of gyrodactylid population growth, which we use to evaluate errors due to stochastic reproductive variation in such experimental studies. Parameters for the model use available fecundity and mortality data derived from previously published life tables of Gyrodactylus salaris, and use a new data set of fecundity and mortality statistics for this species on the Neva stock of Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar. Mortality data were analysed using a mark-recapture analysis software package, allowing maximum-likelihood estimation of daily survivorship and mortality. We consistently found that a constant age-specific mortality schedule was most appropriate for G. salaris in experimental datasets, with a daily survivorship of 0.84 at 13°C. This, however, gave unrealistically low population growth rates when used as parameters in the model, and a schedule of constantly increasing mortality was chosen as the best compromise for the model. The model also predicted a realistic age structure for the simulated populations, with 0.32 of the population not yet having given birth for the first time (pre-first birth). The model demonstrated that the population growth rate can be a useful parameter for comparing gyrodactylid populations when these are larger than 20-30 individuals, but that stochastic error rendered the parameter unusable in smaller populations. It also showed that the declining parasite population growth rate typically observed during the course of G. salaris infections cannot be explained through stochastic error and must therefore have a biological basis. Finally, the study showed that most gyrodactylid-host studies of this type are too small to detect subtle differences in local adaptation of gyrodactylid monogeneans between fish stocks.     

A novel injectable collagen matrix: in vitro characterization and in vivo evaluation

We present here a unique engineered collagen formulation that is injectable and compacts into a porous viscoelastic solid after implantation, achieving completely focal application without cross-linking. This implant provides a cohesive continuously porous matrix, as demonstrated by permeability and compression experiments. Those experiments also provide initial mechanical characterization of the material and establish the ability to modify these essential properties by design. Further, the short-term compaction and long-term stability of the implant in vivo in terms of both physical and histological responses are assessed in an animal model to demonstrate the mechanism of action and long-term persistence of this novel material.     

Environmental stochasticity in dispersal areas can explain the "mysterious" disappearance of breeding populations

We present the results of an individual-based simulation model, showing that increasing the mortality of non-breeding dispersers within settlement areas can lead to the extinction of species and (meta)populations in a subtle way. This is because the areas where dispersers settle are generally unknown or difficult to detect. Consequently, fewer efforts are devoted to the conservation of these sites than to the conservation of breeding territories. Additionally, high mortality rates affecting the floater sector of a population become evident in the breeding sector only after several of years, when it is too difficult or too late to halt the decline. As a result, because most conservation projects on endangered species and populations mainly focus on breeding areas, many current efforts may be wasted in locations other than those in which conservation would be really necessary and effective.