Potential role of natural enemies during tree range expansions following climate change

Recent investigations have shown how chance, long-range dispersal events can allow tree populations to migrate rapidly in response to changes in climate. However, this apparent solution to Reid's paradox applies solely within the context of single species models, while the rapid migration rates seen in pollen records occurred within multispecies communities. Ecologists are therefore presented with a new challenge: reconciling the macroscopic dynamics of spread seen in the pollen record with the rules and interactions governing plant community assembly. A case that highlights this issue is the rapid spread of Beech during the Holocene into a landscape already dominated by a close competitor, Hemlock. In this study, we analyse a simple model of plant community assembly incorporating competition for space and dispersal dynamics, showing how, even when a species is capable of rapid migration into an empty landscape, the presence of an ecologically similar competitor causes Reid's paradox to re-emerge because of the dramatic slowing effect of competitive interactions on a species' rate of spread. We then show how the answer to the question of how tree species dispersed rapidly into occupied landscapes may lie in secondary interactions with host-specific pathogens and parasites. Inclusion of host-specific pathogens into the simple community assembly model illustrates how tree species undergoing range expansions can temporarily outstrip specialist predators, giving rise to a transient Jansen-Connell effect, in which the invader acts as temporary 'super-species' that spreads rapidly into communities already occupied by competitors at rates consistent with those observed in the paleo-record.     

Modelling and estimating pollen movement in oilseed rape (Brassica napus) at the landscape scale using genetic markers

Understanding patterns of pollen movement at the landscape scale is important for establishing management rules following the release of genetically modified (GM) crops. We use here a mating model adapted to cultivated species to estimate dispersal kernels from the genotypes of the progenies of male-sterile plants positioned at different sampling sites within a 10 x 10-km oilseed rape production area. Half of the pollen clouds sampled by the male-sterile plants originated from uncharacterized pollen sources that could consist of both large volunteer and feral populations, and fields within and outside the study area. The geometric dispersal kernel was the most appropriate to predict pollen movement in the study area. It predicted a much larger proportion of long-distance pollination than previously fitted dispersal kernels. This best-fitting mating model underestimated the level of differentiation among pollen clouds but could predict its spatial structure. The estimation method was validated on simulated genotypic data, and proved to provide good estimates of both the shape of the dispersal kernel and the rate and composition of pollen issued from uncharacterized pollen sources. The best dispersal kernel fitted here, the geometric kernel, should now be integrated into models that aim at predicting gene flow at the landscape level, in particular between GM and non-GM crops.     

Should I stay or should I go? Mycorrhizal plants are more likely to invest in long‐distance seed dispersal than non‐mycorrhizal plants

Seed dispersal and mycorrhizal associations are key mutualisms for the functioning and regeneration of plant communities; however, these processes have seldom been explored together. We hypothesised that obligatory mycorrhizal plants will be less likely to have long‐distance dispersal (LDD) syndromes since the probability of finding suitable mycorrhizal partners is likely to decrease with distance to the mother plant. We contrasted the mycorrhizal status and LDD syndromes for 1960 European plant species, using phylogenetically corrected log‐linear models. Contrary to our expectation, having specialised structures for LDD is more frequent in obligate mycorrhizal plants than in non‐mycorrhizal plants, revealing that lack of compatible mutualists does not constrain investment in LDD structures in the European Flora. Ectomycorrhizal plants associated with wind‐dispersing fungi are also more likely to have specialised structures for wind dispersal. Habitat specificity and narrower niche of non‐mycorrhizal plants might explain the smaller investment in specialised structures for seed dispersal.     

Reversal of height dimorphism promotes pollen and seed dispersal in a wind-pollinated dioecious plant

Variation in the timing of reproductive functions in dioecious organisms may result in adaptive changes in the direction of sexual dimorphism during the breeding season. For plants in which both pollen and seeds are wind-dispersed, it may be advantageous for male plants to be taller when pollen is dispersed and female plants to be taller when seeds are dispersed. We examined the dynamics of height dimorphism in Rumex hastatulus, an annual, wind-pollinated, dioecious plant from the southern USA. A field survey of seven populations indicated that females were significantly taller than males at seed maturity. However, a glasshouse experiment revealed a more complex pattern of height growth during the life cycle. No dimorphism was evident prior to reproduction for six of seven populations, but at flowering, males were significantly taller than females in all populations. This pattern was reversed at reproductive maturity, consistent with field observations. Males flowered later than females and the degree of height dimorphism was greater in populations with a later onset of male flowering. We discuss the potential adaptive significance of temporal changes in height dimorphism for pollen and seed dispersal, and how this may be optimized for the contrasting reproductive functions of the sexes.     

种子的长距离风传播模型研究进展

 植物种子的长距离传播在物种迁移、生物入侵、保护生物学等领域有重要的生态和进化意义。种子传播有很多方式,开阔草原等地区的草本植物和许多热带和温带的树木都是通过风传播种子的。风传播的方式最适合进行种子长距离传播现象的模拟研究。种子的风传播模型是传播生态研究的一个重要领域,尤其是种子的长距离风传播模型,对于外来入侵植物的扩散和破碎化景观中植物种群的基因交流等生态过程研究举足轻重,然而国内鲜见这方面的研究成果。本文综述了种子长距离风传播现象研究的背景和意义,分析了风传播种子模型的基本形式和构成原理,并分别就现象模型和机理模型的相关研究进展进行了总结,同时指出了未来发展的几个重要方向。种子的风传播模型可以分为现象模型和机理模型两类,现象模型按种子传播核心的形式包括短尾模型、偏峰长尾模型和混合传播核心模型,后两者对于长距离传播数据的模拟可以取得很好的效果。机理模型按照模拟机制可分为欧拉对流扩散模型和拉格郎日随机模型两类。本文重点介绍了种子的长距离风传播现象的形成机理和两类机理模型的参数构成和处理方式。适合种子脱落的天气和适合传播的天气的同步性可能是形成种子长距离风传播的一个重要前提,林缘和地表存在的上升气流及大风和暴风中形成的速度梯度都可能对于种子的长距离传播有重要的作用。机理模型的操作因子主要包括生物方面的因子、气象方面的因子和地形方面的因子。同时对目前几个应用比较成功的机理模型进行了简要的介绍和评价,包括倾斜羽毛模型、对流-扩散-下降模型、无掩蔽模型、背景模型、WINDISPER及其改进模型和PAPPUS模型。最后指出,目前在风传播种子的长距离模型研究中,对草本植物种子的传播模拟的投入明显不如树木种子的长距离传播模拟,对于破碎化景观中种子长距离的风传播的研究还存在很大的差距,而对提高机理模型预测能力的高分辨率物理环境数据输入技术的需求则为多学科交叉提供了很好的机会。     

VARIATION IN POLLEN FLOW WITHIN AND AMONG POPULATIONS OF IPOMOPSIS AGGREGATA

Pollen dispersal is a major component of gene flow in plant populations. It can influence microevolution within and among populations as well as the evolution of floral characters that affect dispersal. Most previous studies have relied on point estimates to characterize dispersal distances, even though there is likely to be substantial intrapopulational and interpopulational variation. We measured variation in pollen dispersal for the hummingbird-pollinated herb Ipomopsis aggregata (Polemoniaceae), using powdered fluorescent dyes to estimate pollen movement. Analysis of 5–6 natural populations in each of three years indicated that mean and mean squared distances of pollen dispersal, measured over the reproductive lifespan of individual plants, varied more than threefold among populations and years. Dispersal distances also shifted over the season within a given population. Unlike the variation among populations, these seasonal changes were associated in part with changes in flower density. The mean distance of pollen dispersal from an individual plant was unrelated to the date of first flowering, but did reflect two floral characters. Plants with higher variance in stamen length across flowers delivered pollen farther on average, as predicted by computer simulations of pollen carryover. Plants with lower mean stamen lengths also delivered pollen farther. Such effects of plant characters on pollen dispersal are a critical prerequisite for dispersal to evolve in response to its effects on fitness.     

Assessing the risk of gene flow from genetically modified trees carrying mitigation transgenes

The increasing use of genetically modified (GM) plants has raised concerns about the escape of transgenes to conventional populations. To counteract possible fitness advantages of GM plants, an advantageous ‘primary transgene’ may be linked to a ‘mitigation’ transgene that is selectively disfavored. A risk related to this technique is the possible break-up of the transgenes. This may lead to the establishment of genotypes that only express the primary transgenic trait and are therefore selectively favored over both conventional and GM genotypes. We study here how the establishment of break-up genotypes in tree populations depends on life history, pollen dispersal kernels, and the linkage between transgenes. To this end, we model the dynamics of an initially homozygous GM population and a conventional population growing next to each other. The simulations are based on a spatially explicit simulation model for population-genotype dynamics. Pollen and seed dispersal are described by fat-tailed dispersal kernels. Break-up of transgenes is due subsequent crossing of GM and conventional genotypes. The spatial pattern of pollen and seed dispersal causes break-up and establishment of new invasive genotypes to occur mostly in the conventional population. The amount of individuals of these genotypes established in the conventional population depends on the interaction between life-history traits, pollen dispersal distances and the linkage of the transgenes. Thus, risk assessment of transgene break-up requires information on the genetics, local dynamics, and dispersal of GM and conventional varieties. The approach presented here provides a tool for combining these different sources of information, and it contributes to the formulation of general rules for the management of GM tree populations.     

Primary pollinator exclusion has divergent consequences for pollen dispersal and mating in different populations of a bird‐pollinated tree

Pollination by nectarivorous birds is predicted to result in different patterns of pollen dispersal and plant mating compared to pollination by insects. We tested the prediction that paternal genetic diversity, outcrossing rate and realized pollen dispersal will be reduced when the primary pollinator group is excluded from bird‐pollinated plants. Pollinator exclusion experiments in conjunction with paternity analysis of progeny were applied to Eucalyptus caesia Benth. (Myrtaceae), a predominantly honeyeater‐pollinated tree that is visited by native insects and the introduced Apis mellifera (Apidae). Microsatellite genotyping at 14 loci of all adult E. caesia at two populations (n = 580 and 315), followed by paternity analysis of 705 progeny, revealed contrasting results between populations. Honeyeater exclusion did not significantly impact pollen dispersal or plant mating at Mount Caroline. In contrast, at the Chiddarcooping site, the exclusion of honeyeaters led to lower outcrossing rates, a threefold reduction in the average number of sires per fruit, a decrease in intermediate‐distance mating and an increase in near‐neighbour mating. The results from Chiddarcooping suggest that bird pollination may increase paternal genetic diversity, potentially leading to higher fitness of progeny and favouring the evolution of this strategy. However, further experimentation involving additional trees and study sites is required to test this hypothesis. Alternatively, insects may be effective pollinators in some populations of bird‐adapted plants, but ineffective in others.     

Migration load in plants: role of pollen and seed dispersal in heterogeneous landscapes

Evolution of local adaptation depends critically on the level of gene flow, which, in plants, can be due to either pollen or seed dispersal. Using analytical predictions and individual-centred simulations, we investigate the specific influence of seed and pollen dispersal on local adaptation in plant populations growing in patchy heterogeneous landscapes. We study the evolution of a polygenic trait subject to stabilizing selection within populations, but divergent selection between populations. Deviations from linkage equilibrium and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium make different contributions to genotypic variance depending on the dispersal mode. Local genotypic variance, differentiation between populations and genetic load vary with the rate of gene flow but are similar for seed and pollen dispersal, unless the landscape is very heterogeneous. In this case, genetic load is higher in the case of pollen dispersal, which appears to be due to differences in the distribution of genotypic values before selection.     

Overseas seed dispersal by migratory birds

Long-distance dispersal (LDD) promotes the colonization of isolated and remote habitats, and thus it has been proposed as a mechanism for explaining the distributions of many species. Birds are key LDD vectors for many sessile organisms such as plants, yet LDD beyond local and regional scales has never been directly observed nor quantified. By sampling birds caught while in migratory flight by GPS-tracked wild falcons, we show that migratory birds transport seeds over hundreds of kilometres and mediate dispersal from mainland to oceanic islands. Up to 1.2% of birds that reached a small island of the Canary Archipelago (Alegranza) during their migration from Europe to Sub-Saharan Africa carried seeds in their guts. The billions of birds making seasonal migrations each year may then transport millions of seeds. None of the plant species transported by the birds occurs in Alegranza and most do not occur on nearby Canary Islands, providing a direct example of the importance of environmental filters in hampering successful colonization by immigrant species. The constant propagule pressure generated by these LDD events might, nevertheless, explain the colonization of some islands. Hence, migratory birds can mediate rapid range expansion or shifts of many plant taxa and determine their distribution.     

Pollen dispersal is driven by pollinator response to plant disease and plant spatial aggregation

Most plant species are pollinated by animals, mainly insects, who adjust their foraging behaviour to the spatial distribution of rewards. Any changes in rewards of individual plants could then affect pollen dispersal at the level of plant patches or populations. Such change in floral rewards often results from infection by plant pathogens, for example by anther smuts (i.e. no pollen and reduced nectar in diseased flowers). Here, we tested the hypothesis that the infection of plant populations by anther smuts affects the pattern of pollen dispersal.We investigated the patterns of pollen dispersal in experimental arrays of potted plants differing in the presence of diseased plants and the degree of plant spatial aggregation. We tracked pollen dispersal using a fluorescent dye powder as a pollen analogue, while we simultaneously observed pollinator foraging behaviour.We found that the dispersal of the pollen analogue increased in the presence of diseased plants in experimental arrays, but this effect was strongly dependant on plant spatial aggregation. The parallel observations of pollinator behaviour suggest that this pattern resulted from pollinator discrimination against diseased plants and increased movement in arrays with intermingled diseased plants, provided that plant clusters were close to each other.Our study indicates that pollinators respond to diseased plants in a similar way as to healthy plants with low rewards. Consequently, diseased plants should be treated not only as a potential source of infection but also as a factor influencing pollen dispersal in plant populations.     

Shorebirds as important vectors for plant dispersal in Europe

Shorebirds (Charadriiformes) undergo rapid migrations with potential for long‐distance dispersal (LDD) of plants. We studied the frequency of endozoochory by shorebirds in different parts of Europe covering a broad latitudinal range and different seasons. We assessed whether plants dispersed conformed to morphological dispersal syndromes. A total of 409 excreta samples (271 faeces and 138 pellets) were collected from redshank Tringa totanus, black‐winged stilt Himantopus himantopus, pied avocet Recurvirostra avosetta, northern lapwing Vanellus vanellus, Eurasian curlew Numenius arquata and black‐tailed godwit Limosa limosa in south‐west Spain, north‐west England, southern Ireland and Iceland in 2005 and 2016, and intact seeds were extracted and identified. Godwits were sampled just before or after migratory movements between England and Iceland. The germinability of seeds was tested. Intact diaspores were recovered from all bird species and study areas, and were present in 13% of samples overall. Thirteen plant families were represented, including Charophyceae and 26 angiosperm taxa. Only four species had an ‘endozoochory syndrome’. Four alien species were recorded. Ellenberg values classified three species as aquatic and 20 as terrestrial. Overall, 89% of seeds were from terrestrial plants, and 11% from aquatic plants. Average seed length was higher in redshank pellets than in their faeces. Six species were germinated, none of which had an endozoochory syndrome. Seeds were recorded during spring and autumn migration. Plant species recorded have broad latitudinal ranges consistent with LDD via shorebirds. Crucially, morphological syndromes do not adequately predict LDD potential, and more empirical work is required to identify which plants are dispersed by shorebirds. Incorporating endozoochory by shorebirds and other migratory waterbirds into plant distribution models would allow us to better understand the natural processes that facilitated colonization of oceanic islands, or to improve predictions of how plants will respond to climate change, or how alien species spread.     

Different temperature perception in high‐elevation plants: new insight into phenological development and implications for climate change in the alpine tundra

In alpine habitats, predicted warmer and longer growing seasons will influence plant phenology, with important implications for species adaptation and vegetation dynamics. However, little is known on the temperature sensitivity of different phenophases and on the characteristics allowing phenological variation among and within species. By integrating interannual micro‐climatic variability with experimental warming, we explored how the phenology of three alpine species is influenced by temperature and what mechanisms underlie intra‐ and inter‐specific phenological differences. The present study demonstrated that alpine plants have different temperature responses during their reproductive cycle, do not have constant thermal thresholds and heat‐use efficiencies to achieve the seed dispersal stage and can change their temperature sensitivity to flower along snowmelt gradients. In addition, the length of the reproductive cycle, which proved to be species‐specific under experimental warming, does not seem to be the only life‐history trait under selective pressure due to the short‐length of the snow‐free period. In a warming climate scenario, the phenology of sexual reproduction will be considerably altered, and alpine plants may be subjected to changes in population dynamics driven by altered perception of environmental cues appropriate for coordinating the timing of key life‐history events.     

Fine-scale genetic structure and gene dispersal inferences in 10 neotropical tree species

The extent of gene dispersal is a fundamental factor of the population and evolutionary dynamics of tropical tree species, but directly monitoring seed and pollen movement is a difficult task. However, indirect estimates of historical gene dispersal can be obtained from the fine-scale spatial genetic structure of populations at drift-dispersal equilibrium. Using an approach that is based on the slope of the regression of pairwise kinship coefficients on spatial distance and estimates of the effective population density, we compare indirect gene dispersal estimates of sympatric populations of 10 tropical tree species. We re-analysed 26 data sets consisting of mapped allozyme, SSR (simple sequence repeat), RAPD (random amplified polymorphic DNA) or AFLP (amplified fragment length polymorphism) genotypes from two rainforest sites in French Guiana. Gene dispersal estimates were obtained for at least one marker in each species, although the estimation procedure failed under insufficient marker polymorphism, limited sample size, or inappropriate sampling area. Estimates generally suffered low precision and were affected by assumptions regarding the effective population density. Averaging estimates over data sets, the extent of gene dispersal ranged from 150 m to 1200 m according to species. Smaller gene dispersal estimates were obtained in species with heavy diaspores, which are presumably not well dispersed, and in populations with high local adult density. We suggest that limited seed dispersal could indirectly limit effective pollen dispersal by creating higher local tree densities, thereby increasing the positive correlation between pollen and seed dispersal distances. We discuss the potential and limitations of our indirect estimation procedure and suggest guidelines for future studies.     

Spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in future environments

Despite ample research, understanding plant spread and predicting their ability to track projected climate changes remain a formidable challenge to be confronted. We modelled the spread of North American wind-dispersed trees in current and future (c. 2060) conditions, accounting for variation in 10 key dispersal, demographic and environmental factors affecting population spread. Predicted spread rates vary substantially among 12 study species, primarily due to inter-specific variation in maturation age, fecundity and seed terminal velocity. Future spread is predicted to be faster if atmospheric CO(2) enrichment would increase fecundity and advance maturation, irrespective of the projected changes in mean surface windspeed. Yet, for only a few species, predicted wind-driven spread will match future climate changes, conditioned on seed abscission occurring only in strong winds and environmental conditions favouring high survival of the farthest-dispersed seeds. Because such conditions are unlikely, North American wind-dispersed trees are expected to lag behind the projected climate range shift.     

Modeling spatial dynamics of episodic and synchronous reproduction by plant populations: the effect of small-scale pollen coupling and large-scale climate

Many plant species show masting, intermittent and synchronized reproduction at population level. In the present paper, we review the resource-based model providing a theoretically plausible physiological mechanism underlying masting. In the model, a non-linear allocation of energy reserves is considered: plants accumulate photosynthate every year, produce flowers when the energy reserve level exceeds a threshold, and set seeds at a rate limited by pollen availability. The model predicted that individual plants alter their reproductive dynamics from annual to intermittent depending on how heavily the plant invests resource in reproduction. When fruit production is limited by the availability of outcross pollen, a plant population showed diverse reproductive behavior such as completely synchronized or desynchronized reproduction. Spatial scale of reproductive synchrony tended to be a few times larger than the range of direct pollen exchange. Impact of climatic fluctuation correlated at a large spatial scale was also investigated as an alternative synchronizing factor. The variation in annual productivity and the reproductive threshold induced from climatic fluctuation was accounted for by incorporating an additional term in the model. When plants show a 2 year reproductive cycle, highly synchronized reproduction at a regional scale was induced due to correlated environmental forcing, but reproductive synchrony with long intermast periods was realized only when pollen coupling and environmental forcing were at work. These results suggest that distance-dependent processes, such as pollen exchange between nearby trees, induce synchrony at a local scale and external environmental forcing correlated at geographically large scales works to strengthen and maintain such a synchrony.     

Multiscale spatial genetic structure within and between populations of wild cherry trees in nuclear genotypes and chloroplast haplotypes

Spatial genetic structure (SGS) of plants mainly depends on the effective population size and gene dispersal. Maternally inherited loci are expected to have higher genetic differentiation between populations and more intensive SGS within populations than biparentally inherited loci because of smaller effective population sizes and fewer opportunities of gene dispersal in the maternally inherited loci. We investigated biparentally inherited nuclear genotypes and maternally inherited chloroplast haplotypes of microsatellites in 17 tree populations of three wild cherry species under different conditions of tree distribution and seed dispersal. As expected, interpopulation genetic differentiation was 6–9 times higher in chloroplast haplotypes than in nuclear genotypes. This difference indicated that pollen flow 4–7 times exceeded seed flow between populations. However, no difference between nuclear and chloroplast loci was detected in within‐population SGS intensity due to their substantial variation among the populations. The SGS intensity tended to increase as trees became more aggregated, suggesting that tree aggregation biased pollen and seed dispersal distances toward shorter. The loss of effective seed dispersers, Asian black bears, did not affect the SGS intensity probably because of mitigation of the bear loss by other vertebrate dispersers and too few tree generations after the bear loss to alter SGS. The findings suggest that SGS is more variable in smaller spatial scales due to various ecological factors in local populations.     

Pollen and seed dispersal inferred from seedling genotypes: the Bayesian revolution has passed here too

Understanding precisely how plants disperse their seeds and pollen in their neighbourhood is a central question for both ecologists and evolutionary biologists because seed and pollen dispersal governs both the rate of spread of an expanding population and gene flow within and among populations. The concept of a 'dispersal kernel' has become extremely popular in dispersal ecology as a tool that summarizes how dispersal distributes individuals and genes in space and at a given scale. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, the study by Moran & Clark (2011) (M&C in the following) shows how genotypic and spatial data of established seedlings can be analysed in a Bayesian framework to estimate jointly the pollen and seed dispersal kernels and finally derive a parentage analysis from a full-probability approach. This approach applied to red oak shows important dispersal of seeds (138 m on average) and pollen (178 m on average). For seeds, this estimate contrasts with previous results from inverse modelling on seed trap data (9.3 m). This research gathers several methodological advances made in recent years in two research communities and could become a cornerstone for dispersal ecology.     

Fine-scale genetic structure and gene dispersal in Centaurea corymbosa (Asteraceae) I. Pattern of pollen dispersal

Pollen dispersal was characterized within a population of the narrowly endemic perennial herb, Centaurea corymbosa, using exclusion-based and likelihood-based paternity analyses carried out on microsatellite data. Data were used to fit a model of pollen dispersal and to estimate the rates of pollen flow and mutation/genotyping error, by developing a new method. Selfing was rare (1.6%). Pollen dispersed isotropically around each flowering plant following a leptokurtic distribution, with 50% of mating pairs separated by less than 11 m, but 22% by more than 40 m. Estimates of pollen flow lacked precision (0-25%), partially because mutations and/or genotyping errors (0.03-1%) could also explain the occurrence of offspring without a compatible candidate father. However, the pollen pool that fertilized these offspring was little differentiated from the adults of the population whereas strongly differentiated from the other populations, suggesting that pollen flow rate among populations was low. Our results suggest that pollen dispersal is too extended to allow differentiation by local adaptation within a population. However, among populations, gene flow might be low enough for such processes to occur.     

Plant responses to elevated temperatures: a field study on phenological sensitivity and fitness responses to simulated climate warming

Significant changes in plant phenology have been observed in response to increases in mean global temperatures. There are concerns that accelerated phenologies can negatively impact plant populations. However, the fitness consequence of changes in phenology in response to elevated temperature is not well understood, particularly under field conditions. We address this issue by exposing a set of recombinant inbred lines of Arabidopsis thaliana to a simulated global warming treatment in the field. We find that plants exposed to elevated temperatures flower earlier, as predicted by photothermal models. However, contrary to life‐history trade‐off expectations, they also flower at a larger vegetative size, suggesting that warming probably causes acceleration in vegetative development. Although warming increases mean fitness (fruit production) by ca. 25%, there is a significant genotype‐by‐environment interaction. Changes in fitness rank indicate that imminent climate change can cause populations to be maladapted in their new environment, if adaptive evolution is limited. Thus, changes in the genetic composition of populations are likely, depending on the species’ generation time and the speed of temperature change. Interestingly, genotypes that show stronger phenological responses have higher fitness under elevated temperatures, suggesting that phenological sensitivity might be a good indicator of success under elevated temperature at the genotypic level as well as at the species level.