局域种群的Allee效应和集合种群的同步性

从包含Allee效应的局域种群出发,建立了耦合映像格子模型,即集合种群模型.通过分析和计算机模拟表明:(1)当局域种群受到Allee效应强度较大时,集合种群同步灭绝;(2)而当Allee效应强度相对较弱时,通过稳定局域种群动态(减少混沌)使得集合种群发生同步波动,而这种同步波动能够增加集合种群的灭绝风险;(3)斑块间的连接程度对集合种群同步波动的发生有很大的影响,适当的破碎化有利于集合种群的续存.全局迁移和Allee效应结合起来增加了集合种群同步波动的可能,从而增加集合种群的灭绝风险.这些结果对理解同步性的机理、利用同步机理来制定物种保护策略和害虫防治都有重要的意义.     

Stabilizing Spatially-Structured Populations through Adaptive Limiter Control

Stabilizing the dynamics of complex, non-linear systems is a major concern across several scientific disciplines including ecology and conservation biology. Unfortunately, most methods proposed to reduce the fluctuations in chaotic systems are not applicable to real, biological populations. This is because such methods typically require detailed knowledge of system specific parameters and the ability to manipulate them in real time; conditions often not met by most real populations. Moreover, real populations are often noisy and extinction-prone, which can sometimes render such methods ineffective. Here, we investigate a control strategy, which works by perturbing the population size, and is robust to reasonable amounts of noise and extinction probability. This strategy, called the Adaptive Limiter Control (ALC), has been previously shown to increase constancy and persistence of laboratory populations and metapopulations of Drosophila melanogaster. Here, we present a detailed numerical investigation of the effects of ALC on the fluctuations and persistence of metapopulations. We show that at high migration rates, application of ALC does not require a priori information about the population growth rates. We also show that ALC can stabilize metapopulations even when applied to as low as one-tenth of the total number of subpopulations. Moreover, ALC is effective even when the subpopulations have high extinction rates: conditions under which another control algorithm had previously failed to attain stability. Importantly, ALC not only reduces the fluctuation in metapopulation sizes, but also the global extinction probability. Finally, the method is robust to moderate levels of noise in the dynamics and the carrying capacity of the environment. These results, coupled with our earlier empirical findings, establish ALC to be a strong candidate for stabilizing real biological metapopulations.     

Synchronisation and stability in river metapopulation networks

Spatial structure in landscapes impacts population stability. Two linked components of stability have large consequences for persistence: first, statistical stability as the lack of temporal fluctuations; second, synchronisation as an aspect of dynamic stability, which erodes metapopulation rescue effects. Here, we determine the influence of river network structure on the stability of riverine metapopulations. We introduce an approach that converts river networks to metapopulation networks, and analytically show how fluctuation magnitude is influenced by interaction structure. We show that river metapopulation complexity (in terms of branching prevalence) has nonlinear dampening effects on population fluctuations, and can also buffer against synchronisation. We conclude by showing that river transects generally increase synchronisation, while the spatial scale of interaction has nonlinear effects on synchronised dynamics. Our results indicate that this dual stability – conferred by fluctuation and synchronisation dampening – emerges from interaction structure in rivers, and this may strongly influence the persistence of river metapopulations.     

Metapopulation dynamics in a changing climate: Increasing spatial synchrony in weather conditions drives metapopulation synchrony of a butterfly inhabiting a fragmented landscape

Habitat fragmentation and climate change are both prominent manifestations of global change, but there is little knowledge on the specific mechanisms of how climate change may modify the effects of habitat fragmentation, for example, by altering dynamics of spatially structured populations. The long‐term viability of metapopulations is dependent on independent dynamics of local populations, because it mitigates fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole. Metapopulation viability will be compromised if climate change increases spatial synchrony in weather conditions associated with population growth rates. We studied a recently reported increase in metapopulation synchrony of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Finnish archipelago, to see if it could be explained by an increase in synchrony of weather conditions. For this, we used 23 years of butterfly survey data together with monthly weather records for the same period. We first examined the associations between population growth rates within different regions of the metapopulation and weather conditions during different life‐history stages of the butterfly. We then examined the association between the trends in the synchrony of the weather conditions and the synchrony of the butterfly metapopulation dynamics. We found that precipitation from spring to late summer are associated with the M. cinxia per capita growth rate, with early summer conditions being most important. We further found that the increase in metapopulation synchrony is paralleled by an increase in the synchrony of weather conditions. Alternative explanations for spatial synchrony, such as increased dispersal or trophic interactions with a specialist parasitoid, did not show paralleled trends and are not supported. The climate driven increase in M. cinxia metapopulation synchrony suggests that climate change can increase extinction risk of spatially structured populations living in fragmented landscapes by altering their dynamics.     

Movements and source–sink dynamics of a Masai giraffe metapopulation

Spatial variation in habitat quality and anthropogenic factors, as well as social structure, can lead to spatially structured populations of animals. Demographic approaches can be used to improve our understanding of the dynamics of spatially structured populations and help identify subpopulations critical for the long-term persistence of regional metapopulations. We provide a regional metapopulation analysis to inform conservation management for Masai giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis tippelskirchi) in five subpopulations defined by land management designations. We used data from an individual-based mark–recapture study to estimate subpopulation sizes, subpopulation growth rates, and movement probabilities among subpopulations. We assessed the source–sink structure of the study population by calculating source–sink statistics, and we created a female-based matrix metapopulation model composed of all subpopulations to examine how variation in demographic components of survival, reproduction, and movement affected metapopulation growth rate. Movement data indicated no subpopulation was completely isolated, but movement probabilities varied among subpopulations. Source–sink statistics and net flow of individuals indicated three subpopulations were sources, while two subpopulations were sinks. We found areas with higher wildlife protection efforts and fewer anthropogenic impacts were sources, and less-protected areas were identified as sinks. Our results highlight the importance of identifying source–sink dynamics among subpopulations for effective conservation planning and emphasize how protected areas can play an important role in sustaining metapopulations.     

A review of extinction in experimental populations

1. Population extinction is a fundamental ecological process. Recent experimental work has begun to test the large body of theory that predicts how demographic, genetic and environmental factors influence extinction risk. We review empirical studies of extinction conducted under controlled laboratory conditions. Our synthesis highlights four findings. First, extinction theory largely considers individual, isolated populations. However, species interactions frequently altered or even reversed the influence of environmental factors on population extinction as compared to single-species conditions, highlighting the need to integrate community ecology into population theory. 2. While most single-species studies qualitatively agree with theoretical predictions, studies are needed that quantitatively compare observed and predicted extinction rates. A quantitative understanding of extinction processes is needed to further advance theory and to predict population extinction resulting from human activities. 3. Many stresses leading to population extinction can be assuaged by migration between subpopulations. However, too much migration increases synchrony between subpopulations and thus increases extinction risk. Research is needed to determine how to strike a balance that maximizes the benefit of migration. 4. Results from laboratory experiments often conflict with field studies. Understanding these inconsistencies is crucial for extending extinction theory to natural populations.     

Metapopulation dynamics and the quality of the matrix

In both strictly theoretical and more applied contexts it has been historically assumed that metapopulations exist within a featureless, uninhabitable matrix and that dynamics within the matrix are unimportant. In this article, we explore the range of theoretical consequences that result from relaxing this assumption. We show, with a variety of modeling techniques, that matrix quality can be extremely important in determining metapopulation dynamics. A higher-quality matrix generally buffers against extinction. However, in some situations, an increase in matrix quality can generate chaotic subpopulation dynamics, where stability had been the rule in a lower-quality matrix. Furthermore, subpopulations acting as source populations in a low-quality matrix may develop metapopulation dynamics as the quality of the matrix increases. By forcing metapopulation dynamics on a formerly heterogeneous (but stable within subpopulations) population, the probability of simultaneous extinction of all subpopulations actually increases. Thus, it cannot be automatically assumed that increasing matrix quality will lower the probability of global extinction of a population.     

Determinants of Genetic Structure in a Nonequilibrium Metapopulation of the Plant Silene latifolia

Population genetic differentiation will be influenced by the demographic history of populations, opportunities for migration among neighboring demes and founder effects associated with repeated extinction and recolonization. In natural populations, these factors are expected to interact with each other and their magnitudes will vary depending on the spatial distribution and age structure of local demes. Although each of these effects has been individually identified as important in structuring genetic variance, their relative magnitude is seldom estimated in nature. We conducted a population genetic analysis in a metapopulation of the angiosperm, Silene latifolia, from which we had more than 20 years of data on the spatial distribution, demographic history, and extinction and colonization of demes. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to disentangle which features of the populations contributed to among population variation in allele frequencies, including the magnitude and direction of their effects. We show that population age, long-term size and degree of connectivity all combine to affect the distribution of genetic variance; small, recently-founded, isolated populations contributed most to increase F _ST in the metapopulation. However, the effects of population size and population age are best understood as being modulated through the effects of connectivity to other extant populations, i.e. F _ST diminishes as populations age, but at a rate that depends how isolated the population is. These spatial and temporal correlates of population structure give insight into how migration, founder effect and within-deme genetic drift have combined to enhance and restrict genetic divergence in a natural metapopulation.     

Dispersal-induced desynchronization: from metapopulations to metacommunities

The conceptualization of fragmented populations in terms of metapopulation theory has become standard over the last three decades. It is well known that increases in between‐patch migration rates cause more synchronous population fluctuations and that this coherence increases the risk of global metapopulation extinction. Because species’ migration rates and the probability of individuals surviving migration events depend on the effective distance between patches, the benefit of improving conservation corridors or the matrix between habitat patches has been questioned. As populations occur in the context of larger communities, moving from a metapopulation to a metacommunity model framework is a natural extension to address the generality of these conclusions. We show how considering a metacommunity can modify the conclusion that decreasing the effective distance between habitat patches (via improving matrix quality or other measures) necessarily increases the degree of metapopulation synchrony. We show that decreases in effective between‐patch distance may deter population synchrony because of the simultaneous effect this change has on the migration patterns of other species. These results indicate that species interactions need to be considered when the effect of conservation measures on population synchrony, and ultimately persistence, is addressed.     

Extinction and isolation gradients in metapopulations: the case of the pool frog (Rana lessonae)

Loral extinction along the intrinsic isolation gradient within metapopulations is reviewed with particular reference to a study of the pool frog ( Rana lessonaé ) on the northern periphery of its geographical range. As in the pool frog, many other different tax a show significantly increased extinction probabilities with increased interpopulation distance. Present data imply that the relative impact of demographic and genetic factors in such stochastic extinctions depends on the genetic history of the metapopulation; data also imply that populations fluctuate more greatly in size than predicted from demographic models which have been commonly referred to. By mitigating such fluctuations and inbreeding, and compensating for emigration, immigration undoubtedly 'rescues' local populations from extinction. In this way, and not just in terms of recolonization, connectivity is concluded to be a key to metapopulation persistence. Implications for conservation are also presented.     

The applicability of metapopulation theory to large mammals

Metapopulation theory has become a common framework in conservation biology and it is sometimes suggested that a metapopulation approach should be used for management of large mammals. However, it has also been suggested that metapopulation theory would not be applicable to species with long generations compared to those with short ones. In this paper, we review how and on what empirical ground metapopulation terminology has been applied to insects, small mammals and large mammals. The review showed that the metapopulation term sometimes was used for population networks which only fulfilled the broadest possible definition of a metapopulation, i.e. they were subpopulations connected by migrating individuals. We argue that the metapopulation concept should be reserved for networks that also show some kind of metapopulation dynamics. Otherwise it applies to almost all populations and loses its substance. We found much empirical support for metapopulation dynamics in both insects and small mammals, but not in large mammals. A possible reason is the methods used to confirm the existence of metapopulation dynamics. For insects and small mammals, the common approach is to study population turnover through patch occupancy data. Such data is difficult to obtain for large mammals, since longer temporal scales need to be covered to record extinctions and colonizations. Still, many populations of large mammals are exposed to habitat fragmentation and the resulting subpopulations sometimes have high risks of extinction. If there is migration between the subpopulations, the metapopulation framework could provide valuable information on their population dynamics. We suggest that a metapopulation approach can be interesting for populations of large mammals, when there are discrete breeding subpopulations and when these subpopulations have different growth rates and demographic fates. Thus, a comparison of the subpopulations’ demographic fates, rather than subpopulation turnover, can be a feasible alternative for studies of metapopulation dynamics in large mammals.     

Demographic consequences of population subdivision on the long-furred woolly mouse opossum (Micoureus paraguayanus) from the Atlantic Forest

Habitat destruction and fragmentation severely affected the Atlantic Forest. Formerly contiguous populations may become subdivided into a larger number of smaller populations, threatening their long-term persistence. The computer package VORTEX was used to simulate the consequences of habitat fragmentation and population subdivision on Micoureus paraguayanus, an endemic arboreal marsupial of the Atlantic Forest. Scenarios simulated hypothetical populations of 100 and 2000 animals being partitioned into 1–10 populations, linked by varying rates of inter-patch dispersal, and also evaluated male-biased dispersal. Results demonstrated that a single population was more stable than an ensemble of populations of equal size, irrespective of dispersal rate. Small populations (10–20 individuals) exhibited high instability due to demographic stochasticity, and were characterized by high rates of extinction, smaller values for metapopulation growth and larger fluctuations in population size and growth rate. Dispersal effects on metapopulation persistence were related to the size of the populations and to the sexes that were capable of dispersing. Male-biased dispersal had no noticeable effects on metapopulation extinction dynamics, whereas scenarios modelling dispersal by both sexes positively affected metapopulation dynamics through higher growth rates, smaller fluctuations in growth rate, larger final metapopulation sizes and lower probabilities of extinction. The present study highlights the complex relationships between metapopulation size, population subdivision, habitat fragmentation, rate of inter-patch dispersal and sex-biased dispersal and indicates the importance of gaining a better understanding of dispersal and its interactions with correlations between disturbance events.     

Consequences of metapopulation collapse: comparison of genetic attributes between two Allegheny woodrat metapopulations

Disruptions in metapopulation connectivity due to demographic pressure can leave genetically isolated subpopulations susceptible to genetic drift, accumulation of deleterious alleles, and inbreeding depression. Such a scenario may be playing out within Allegheny woodrat (Neotoma magister) metapopulations as a series of synergistic extrinsic pressures have contributed to the rangewide decline of the species over the last 40 years. Our goal was to elucidate the effects of demographic collapse on metapopulation function by using 11 microsatellites markers to quantify differences in patterns of connectivity and genetic diversity between a demographically stable metapopulation and one in severe demographic decline. The demographically diminished metapopulation had lower levels of genetic diversity than the stable metapopulation at all levels evaluated (metapopulation-, subpopulation-, and individual-scales). In contrast to patterns of connectivity observed within the stable metapopulation, peripheral subpopulations in the diminished metapopulation had become completely isolated and were drifting toward genetic fixation, likely as a result of the extirpation of stepping-stone subpopulations. The declining genetic parameters observed within these isolated peripheral subpopulations suggest that inbreeding depression may be contributing significantly to their demographic decline. Allegheny woodrats readily express the genetic consequences of metapopulation decline due to the low effective population sizes of subpopulations and the species’ limited dispersal capacity. Differences in genetic parameters observed between demographically stable and diminished Allegheny woodrat metapopulations emphasize the risks posed to metapopulation function and associated genetic processes introduced with demographic decline.     

Patchy population structure in a short-distance migrant: evidence from genetic and demographic data

Species often occur in subdivided populations as a consequence of spatial heterogeneity of the habitat. To describe the spatial organization of subpopulations, existing theory proposes three main population models: patchy population, metapopulation and isolated populations. These models differ in their predicted levels of connectivity among subpopulations, and in the risk that a subpopulation will go extinct. However, spatially discrete subpopulations are commonly considered to be organized as metapopulations, even though explicit tests of metapopulation assumptions are rare. Here, we test predictions of the three models on the basis of demographic and genetic data, a combined approach so far surprisingly little used in mobile organisms. From 2002 to 2005, we studied nine subpopulations of the wetland-restricted reed bunting ( Emberiza schoeniclus ) in the southeastern part of the Canton Zurich (Switzerland), from which local declines of this species have been reported. Here, wetlands are as small as 2.7 ha and separated through intensively used agricultural landscapes. Demographic data consisted of dispersal of colour-banded individuals among subpopulations, immigration rates and extinction-/recolonization dynamics. Genetic data were based on the distribution of genetic variability and gene flow among subpopulations derived from the analysis of nine microsatellite loci. Both demographic and genetic data revealed that the patchy population model best described the spatial organization of reed bunting subpopulations. High levels of dispersal among subpopulations, high immigration into the patchy population, and genetic admixture suggested little risk of extinction of both subpopulations and the entire patchy population. This study exemplifies the idea that spatially discrete subpopulations may be organized in ways other than a metapopulation, and hence has implications for the conservation of subpopulations and species.     

Finite metapopulation models with density-dependent migration and stochastic local dynamics

The effects of small density-dependent migration on the dynamics of a metapopulation are studied in a model with stochastic local dynamics. We use a diffusion approximation to study how changes in the migration rate and habitat occupancy affect the rates of local colonization and extinction. If the emigration rate increases or if the immigration rate decreases with local population size, a positive expected rate of change in habitat occupancy is found for a greater range of habitat occupancies than when the migration is density-independent. In contrast, the reverse patterns of density dependence in respective emigration and immigration reduce the range of habitat occupancies where the metapopulation will be viable. This occurs because density-dependent migration strongly influences both the establishment and rescue effects in the local dynamics of metapopulations.     

Simulating viability of a spadefoot toad Pelobates fuscus metapopulation in a landscape fragmented by a road

A stochastic simulation model allowing for demographic and environmental stochasticity was developed in order to predict the dynamics of a Pelobates fuscus metapopulation. The metapopulation (consisting of ca 1000 adult individuals) was intensively studied in the field for a period of four years and the simulation model was parameterised (sex ratio, age‐specific survival rates, fecundity and dispersal between subpopulations) using field data. A sensitivity analysis revealed that a change in the juvenile yearly survival rate has a relatively larger effect on subpopulation persistence than adult survival rate and fecundity rate have. The probability of subpopulation persistence for one hundred years increased from 0 to 0.6 with a change in juvenile yearly survival rate from 0.35 to 0.40. Varying dispersal rate (from 0 to 1% of the individuals in a subpopulation moving to another subpopulation within a year) showed that four of the five subpopulations are dependent on the last one for persistence, indicating a source‐sink structure of the metapopulation. The subpopulation with the highest estimated juvenile survival has a far higher persistence probability than the others; they in turn would go extinct were it not for the occasional input of individuals from the source subpopulation. The source‐sink structure was also apparent when simulating the isolation effect of the road: persistence of the subpopulation isolated by the road decreases markedly with only a 20% decrease in the number of individuals dispersing to this pond. Environmental stochasticity decreases persistence time of the source subpopulation, but increases persistence time of the unstable ones. This is probably due to the presence of overcompensating density‐dependent factors affecting the subpopulations and to the more general effect of stochasticity: it may temporarily change reproduction and mortality rates, increase time to extinction for unstable subpopulations through a rescue effect; and decrease time to extinction for the more stable subpopulations.     

THE RELEVANCE OF GENE FLOW IN METAPOPULATION DYNAMICS OF AN OCEANIC ISLAND ENDEMIC,OLEA EUROPAEA SUBSP. GUANCHICA

Theoretical and empirical studies suggest that geographical isolation and extinction–recolonization dynamics are two factors causing strong genetic structure in metapopulations, but their consequences in species with high dispersal abilities have not been tested at large scales. Here, we investigated the effect of population age structure and isolation by distance in the patterns of genetic diversity in a wind‐pollinated, zoochorous tree (Olea europaea subsp. guanchica) sporadically affected by volcanic events across the Canarian archipelago. Genetic variation was assessed at six nuclear microsatellites (nDNA) and six chloroplast fragments (cpDNA) in nine subpopulations sampled on four oceanic islands. Subpopulations occurring on more recent substrates were more differentiated than those on older substrates, but within‐subpopulation genetic diversity was not significantly different between age groups for any type of marker. Isolation‐by‐distance differentiation was observed for nDNA but not for cpDNA, in agreement with other metapopulation studies. Contrary to the general trend for island systems, between‐island differentiation was extremely low, and lower than differentiation between subpopulations on the same island. The pollen‐to‐seed ratio was close to one, two orders of magnitude lower than the average estimated for other wind‐pollinated, animal‐dispersed plants. Our results showed that population turnover and geographical isolation increased genetic differentiation relative to an island model at equilibrium, but overall genetic structure was unexpectedly weak for a species distributed among islands. This empirical study shows that extensive gene flow, particularly mediated by seeds, can ameliorate population subdivision resulting from extinction–recolonization dynamics and isolation by distance.     

Metapopulation dynamics: Does it help to have more of the same?

With the interest in conservation biology shifting towards processes from patterns, and to populations from communities, the theory of metapopulation dynamics is replacing the equilibrium theory of island biogeography as the population ecology paradigm in conservation biology. The simplest models of metapopulation dynamics make predictions about the effects of habitat fragmentation - size and isolation of habitat patches - on metapopulation persistence. The simple models may be enriched by considerations of the effects of demographic and environmental stochasticity on the size and extinction probability of local populations. Environmental stochasticity affects populations at two levels: it makes local extinctions more probable, and it also decreases metapopulation persistence time by increasing the correlation of extinction events across populations. Some controversy has arisen over the significance of correlated extinctions, and how they may affect the optimal subdivision of metapopulations to maximize their persistence time.     

How patch configuration affects the impact of disturbances on metapopulation persistence

Disturbances affect metapopulations directly through reductions in population size and indirectly through habitat modification. We consider how metapopulation persistence is affected by different disturbance regimes and the way in which disturbances spread, when metapopulations are compact or elongated, using a stochastic spatially explicit model which includes metapopulation and habitat dynamics. We discover that the risk of population extinction is larger for spatially aggregated disturbances than for spatially random disturbances. By changing the spatial configuration of the patches in the system--leading to different proportions of edge and interior patches--we demonstrate that the probability of metapopulation extinction is smaller when the metapopulation is more compact. Both of these results become more pronounced when colonization connectivity decreases. Our results have important management implication as edge patches, which are invariably considered to be less important, may play an important role as disturbance refugia.     

Past,present, future: tracking and simulating genetic differentiation over time in a closed metapopulation system

Genetic differentiation plays an essential role in the assessment of metapopulation systems of conservation concern. Migration rates affect the degree of genetic differentiation between subpopulations, with increasing genetic differentiation leading to increasing extinction risk. Analyses of genetic differentiation repeated over time together with projections into the future are therefore important to inform conservation. We investigated genetic differentiation in a closed metapopulation system of an obligate forest grouse, the Western capercaillie Tetrao urogallus, by comparing microsatellite population structure between a historic and a recent time period. We found an increase in genetic differentiation over a period of approximately 15 years. Making use of forward simulations accounting for population dynamics and genetics from both time periods, we explored future genetic differentiation by implementing scenarios of differing migration rates. Using migration rates derived from the recent dataset, simulations predicted further increase of genetic differentiation by 2050. We then examined effects of two realistic yet hypothetical migration scenarios on genetic differentiation. While isolation of a subpopulation led to overall increased genetic differentiation, the re-establishment of connectivity between two subpopulations maintained genetic differentiation at recent levels. Our results emphasize the importance of maintaining connectivity between subpopulations in order to prevent further genetic differentiation and loss of genetic variation. The simulation set-up we developed is highly adaptable and will aid researchers and conservationists alike in anticipating consequences of conservation strategies for metapopulation systems.