The Promise of Prevention: The Effects of Four Preventable Risk Factors on National Life Expectancy and Life Expectancy Disparities by Race and County in the United States

Background

There has been substantial research on psychosocial and health care determinants of health disparities in the United States (US) but less on the role of modifiable risk factors. We estimated the effects of smoking, high blood pressure, elevated blood glucose, and adiposity on national life expectancy and on disparities in life expectancy and disease-specific mortality among eight subgroups of the US population (the “Eight Americas”) defined on the basis of race and the location and socioeconomic characteristics of county of residence, in 2005.

Methods and Findings

We combined data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to estimate unbiased risk factor levels for the Eight Americas. We used data from the National Center for Health Statistics to estimate age–sex–disease-specific number of deaths in 2005. We used systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiologic studies to obtain risk factor effect sizes for disease-specific mortality. We used epidemiologic methods for multiple risk factors to estimate the effects of current exposure to these risk factors on death rates, and life table methods to estimate effects on life expectancy. Asians had the lowest mean body mass index, fasting plasma glucose, and smoking; whites had the lowest systolic blood pressure (SBP). SBP was highest in blacks, especially in the rural South—5–7 mmHg higher than whites. The other three risk factors were highest in Western Native Americans, Southern low-income rural blacks, and/or low-income whites in Appalachia and the Mississippi Valley. Nationally, these four risk factors reduced life expectancy at birth in 2005 by an estimated 4.9 y in men and 4.1 y in women. Life expectancy effects were smallest in Asians (M, 4.1 y; F, 3.6 y) and largest in Southern rural blacks (M, 6.7 y; F, 5.7 y). Standard deviation of life expectancies in the Eight Americas would decline by 0.50 y (18%) in men and 0.45 y (21%) in women if these risks had been reduced to optimal levels. Disparities in the probabilities of dying from cardiovascular diseases and diabetes at different ages would decline by 69%–80%; the corresponding reduction for probabilities of dying from cancers would be 29%–50%. Individually, smoking and high blood pressure had the largest effect on life expectancy disparities.

Conclusions

Disparities in smoking, blood pressure, blood glucose, and adiposity explain a significant proportion of disparities in mortality from cardiovascular diseases and cancers, and some of the life expectancy disparities in the US. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Ethnic inequalities in mortality: the case of Arab-Americans

Background

Although nearly 112 million residents of the United States belong to a non-white ethnic group, the literature about differences in health indicators across ethnic groups is limited almost exclusively to Hispanics. Features of the social experience of many ethnic groups including immigration, discrimination, and acculturation may plausibly influence mortality risk. We explored life expectancy and age-adjusted mortality risk of Arab-Americans (AAs), relative to non-Arab and non-Hispanic Whites in Michigan, the state with the largest per capita population of AAs in the US.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Data were collected about all deaths to AAs and non-Arab and non-Hispanic Whites in Michigan between 1990 and 2007, and year 2000 census data were collected for population denominators. We calculated life expectancy, age-adjusted all-cause, cause-specific, and age-specific mortality rates stratified by ethnicity and gender among AAs and non-Arab and non-Hispanic Whites. Among AAs, life expectancies among men and women were 2.0 and 1.4 years lower than among non-Arab and non-Hispanic White men and women, respectively. AA men had higher mortality than non-Arab and non-Hispanic White men due to infectious diseases, chronic diseases, and homicide. AA women had higher mortality than non-Arab and non-Hispanic White women due to chronic diseases.

Conclusions/Significance

Despite better education and higher income, AAs have higher age-adjusted mortality risk than non-Arab and non-Hispanic Whites, particularly due to chronic diseases. Features specific to AA culture may explain some of these findings.     

Decline in mortality from coronary heart disease in Finland from 1969 to 1979.

The trends in mortality from coronary heart disease in the 1970s and the differences in trends between counties within Finland were calculated from official mortality statistics among the population aged 35 to 64 years. During this period coronary mortality declined by a mean of 1.1% for men and 2.3% for women annually in the whole of Finland. A community based cardiovascular control programme was started in 1972 in North Karelia, a county in the east of Finland. The decline in coronary mortality in this county between 1969 and 1979 was 24% in men and 51% in women. The decline in the rest of Finland over the same period was 12% in men and 24% in women. The decline in North Karelia was greater than that in other counties of Finland for both men and women and that difference exceeded random variation, with over 95% likelihood for both sexes. Even with adjustment for rates before 1974 with cross-county multiple regression analyses the difference persisted. Although further studies are needed, the changes in coronary mortality in North Karelia suggest that the preventive programme has been effective.     

Mass HIV Treatment and Sex Disparities in Life Expectancy: Demographic Surveillance in Rural South Africa

Background

Women have better patient outcomes in HIV care and treatment than men in sub-Saharan Africa. We assessed—at the population level—whether and to what extent mass HIV treatment is associated with changes in sex disparities in adult life expectancy, a summary metric of survival capturing mortality across the full cascade of HIV care. We also determined sex-specific trends in HIV mortality and the distribution of HIV-related deaths in men and women prior to and at each stage of the clinical cascade.

Methods and Findings

Data were collected on all deaths occurring from 2001 to 2011 in a large population-based surveillance cohort (52,964 women and 45,688 men, ages 15 y and older) in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Cause of death was ascertained by verbal autopsy (93% response rate). Demographic data were linked at the individual level to clinical records from the public sector HIV treatment and care program that serves the region. Annual rates of HIV-related mortality were assessed for men and women separately, and female-to-male rate ratios were estimated in exponential hazard models. Sex-specific trends in adult life expectancy and HIV-cause-deleted adult life expectancy were calculated. The proportions of HIV deaths that accrued to men and women at different stages in the HIV cascade of care were estimated annually.Following the beginning of HIV treatment scale-up in 2004, HIV mortality declined among both men and women. Female adult life expectancy increased from 51.3 y (95% CI 49.7, 52.8) in 2003 to 64.5 y (95% CI 62.7, 66.4) in 2011, a gain of 13.2 y. Male adult life expectancy increased from 46.9 y (95% CI 45.6, 48.2) in 2003 to 55.9 y (95% CI 54.3, 57.5) in 2011, a gain of 9.0 y. The gap between female and male adult life expectancy doubled, from 4.4 y in 2003 to 8.6 y in 2011, a difference of 4.3 y (95% CI 0.9, 7.6). For women, HIV mortality declined from 1.60 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI 1.46, 1.75) in 2003 to 0.56 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0.48, 0.65) in 2011. For men, HIV-related mortality declined from 1.71 per 100 person-years (95% CI 1.55, 1.88) to 0.76 per 100 person-years (95% CI 0.67, 0.87) in the same period. The female-to-male rate ratio for HIV mortality declined from 0.93 (95% CI 0.82–1.07) in 2003 to 0.73 (95% CI 0.60–0.89) in 2011, a statistically significant decline (p = 0.046). In 2011, 57% and 41% of HIV-related deaths occurred among men and women, respectively, who had never sought care for HIV in spite of the widespread availability of free HIV treatment. The results presented here come from a poor rural setting in southern Africa with high HIV prevalence and high HIV treatment coverage; broader generalizability is unknown. Additionally, factors other than HIV treatment scale-up may have influenced population mortality trends.

Conclusions

Mass HIV treatment has been accompanied by faster declines in HIV mortality among women than men and a growing female–male disparity in adult life expectancy at the population level. In 2011, over half of male HIV deaths occurred in men who had never sought clinical HIV care. Interventions to increase HIV testing and linkage to care among men are urgently needed.     

Life Expectancy and Death by Diseases of the Circulatory System in Patients with Bipolar Disorder or Schizophrenia in the Nordic Countries

Objective

Excess mortality from diseases and medical conditions (natural death) in persons with psychiatric disorders has been extensively reported. Even in the Nordic countries with well-developed welfare systems, register based studies find evidence of an excess mortality. In recent years, cardiac mortality and death by diseases of the circulatory system has seen a decline in all the Nordic countries, but a recent paper indicates that women and men in Denmark, Finland, and Sweden, who had been hospitalised for a psychotic disorder, had a two to three-fold increased risk of dying from a cardiovascular disease. The aim of this study was to compare the mortality by diseases of the circulatory system among patients with bipolar disorder or schizophrenia in the three Nordic countries Denmark, Sweden, and Finland. Furthermore, the aim was to examine and compare life expectancy among these patients. Cause specific Standardized Mortality Rates (SMRs) were calculated for each specific subgroup of mortality. Life expectancy was calculated using Wiesler’s method.

Results

The SMR for bipolar disorder for diseases of the circulatory system was approximately 2 in all countries and both sexes. SMR was slightly higher for people with schizophrenia for both genders and in all countries, except for men in Denmark. Overall life expectancy was much lower among persons with bipolar disorder or schizophrenia, with life expectancy being from 11 to 20 years shorter.

Conclusion

Our data show that persons in the Nordic countries with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder have a substantially reduced life expectancy. An evaluation of the reasons for these increased mortality rates should be prioritized when planning healthcare in the coming years.     

Adverse Trends in Ischemic Heart Disease Mortality among Young New Yorkers,Particularly Young Black Women

Background

Ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality has been on the decline in the United States for decades. However, declines in IHD mortality have been slower in certain groups, including young women and black individuals.

Hypothesis

Trends in IHD vary by age, sex, and race in New York City (NYC). Young female minorities are a vulnerable group that may warrant renewed efforts to reduce IHD.

Methods

IHD mortality trends were assessed in NYC 1980–2008. NYC Vital Statistics data were obtained for analysis. Age-specific IHD mortality rates and confidence bounds were estimated. Trends in IHD mortality were compared by age and race/ethnicity using linear regression of log-transformed mortality rates. Rates and trends in IHD mortality rates were compared between subgroups defined by age, sex and race/ethnicity.

Results

The decline in IHD mortality rates slowed in 1999 among individuals aged 35–54 years but not ≥55. IHD mortality rates were higher among young men than women age 35–54, but annual declines in IHD mortality were slower for women. Black women age 35–54 had higher IHD mortality rates and slower declines in IHD mortality than women of other race/ethnicity groups. IHD mortality trends were similar in black and white men age 35–54.

Conclusions

The decline in IHD mortality rates has slowed in recent years among younger, but not older, individuals in NYC. There was an association between sex and race/ethnicity on IHD mortality rates and trends. Young black women may benefit from targeted medical and public health interventions to reduce IHD mortality.     

Threshold Levels of Infant and Under-Five Mortality for Crossover between Life Expectancies at Ages Zero,One and Five in India: A Decomposition Analysis

Objectives

Under the prevailing conditions of imbalanced life table and historic gender discrimination in India, our study examines crossover between life expectancies at ages zero, one and five years for India and quantifies the relative share of infant and under-five mortality towards this crossover.

Methods

We estimate threshold levels of infant and under-five mortality required for crossover using age specific death rates during 1981–2009 for 16 Indian states by sex (comprising of India’s 90% population in 2011). Kitagawa decomposition equations were used to analyse relative share of infant and under-five mortality towards crossover.

Findings

India experienced crossover between life expectancies at ages zero and five in 2004 for menand in 2009 for women; eleven and nine Indian states have experienced this crossover for men and women, respectively. Men usually experienced crossover four years earlier than the women. Improvements in mortality below ages five have mostly contributed towards this crossover. Life expectancy at age one exceeds that at age zero for both men and women in India except for Kerala (the only state to experience this crossover in 2000 for men and 1999 for women).

Conclusions

For India, using life expectancy at age zero and under-five mortality rate together may be more meaningful to measure overall health of its people until the crossover. Delayed crossover for women, despite higher life expectancy at birth than for men reiterates that Indian women are still disadvantaged and hence use of life expectancies at ages zero, one and five become important for India. Greater programmatic efforts to control leading causes of death during the first month and 1–59 months in high child mortality areas can help India to attain this crossover early.     

The Changing Gender Differences in Life Expectancy in Chinese Cities 2005-2010

Objectives

To analyze the gender difference in life expectancy in Chinese urban people and explore the age-specific and cause-specific contributions to the changing gender differences in life expectancy.

Methods

Data of life expectancy and mortality were obtained from “Annual statistics of public health in China.” The gender difference was analyzed by decomposition method, including age-specific decomposition and cause-specific decomposition.

Results

Women lived much longer than men in Chinese urban areas, with remarkable gains in life expectancy since 2005, respectively. The gender difference reached a peak in 2007. Mortality difference between men and women in the 60–79 age group made the largest contributions to the gender gap in life expectancy in all 6 years. Among causes of death, cancers, circulatory diseases and respiratory diseases made the largest contributions to the gender gap. 33–38% of the gender gap were caused by cancers, among which lung cancer contributed 0.6 years of the overall gap. The contribution of cancers to the gender gap reduced over time, mostly influenced by the narrowing effect of liver cancer on gender gap. Traffic accidents and suicide were the external causes influencing the gender gap, contributing 10–16% of the overall difference.

Conclusion

Public health efforts to reduce excess mortalities for cancers, circulatory disease, respiratory diseases, and suicide among men in particular might further narrow the gender gap in life expectancy in Chinese cities.     

Adult Mortality Attributable to Preventable Risk Factors for Non-Communicable Diseases and Injuries in Japan: A Comparative Risk Assessment

Background

The population of Japan has achieved the longest life expectancy in the world. To further improve population health, consistent and comparative evidence on mortality attributable to preventable risk factors is necessary for setting priorities for health policies and programs. Although several past studies have quantified the impact of individual risk factors in Japan, to our knowledge no study has assessed and compared the effects of multiple modifiable risk factors for non-communicable diseases and injuries using a standard framework. We estimated the effects of 16 risk factors on cause-specific deaths and life expectancy in Japan.

Methods and Findings

We obtained data on risk factor exposures from the National Health and Nutrition Survey and epidemiological studies, data on the number of cause-specific deaths from vital records adjusted for ill-defined codes, and data on relative risks from epidemiological studies and meta-analyses. We applied a comparative risk assessment framework to estimate effects of excess risks on deaths and life expectancy at age 40 y. In 2007, tobacco smoking and high blood pressure accounted for 129,000 deaths (95% CI: 115,000–154,000) and 104,000 deaths (95% CI: 86,000–119,000), respectively, followed by physical inactivity (52,000 deaths, 95% CI: 47,000–58,000), high blood glucose (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 26,000–43,000), high dietary salt intake (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 27,000–39,000), and alcohol use (31,000 deaths, 95% CI: 28,000–35,000). In recent decades, cancer mortality attributable to tobacco smoking has increased in the elderly, while stroke mortality attributable to high blood pressure has declined. Life expectancy at age 40 y in 2007 would have been extended by 1.4 y for both sexes (men, 95% CI: 1.3–1.6; women, 95% CI: 1.2–1.7) if exposures to multiple cardiovascular risk factors had been reduced to their optimal levels as determined by a theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution.

Conclusions

Tobacco smoking and high blood pressure are the two major risk factors for adult mortality from non-communicable diseases and injuries in Japan. There is a large potential population health gain if multiple risk factors are jointly controlled. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Health Factors and Risk of All-Cause,Cardiovascular, and Coronary Heart Disease Mortality: Findings from the MONICA and HAPIEE Studies in Lithuania

Aims

This study investigated the trends and levels of the prevalence of health factors, and the association of all-cause and cardiovascular (CVD) mortality with healthy levels of combined risk factors among Lithuanian urban population.

Methods

Data from five general population surveys in Kaunas, Lithuania, conducted between 1983 and 2008 were used. Healthy factors measured at baseline include non-smoking, normal weight, normal arterial blood pressure, normal level of total serum cholesterol, normal physical activity and normal level of fasting glucose. Among 9,209 men and women aged 45–64 (7,648 were free from coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke at baseline), 1,219 death cases from any cause, 589 deaths from CVD, and 342 deaths from CHD occurred during follow up. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the association between health factors and mortality from all causes, CVD and CHD.

Results

Between 1983 and 2008, the proportion of subjects with 6 healthy levels of risk factors was higher in 2006–2008 than in 1983–1984 (0.6% vs. 0.2%; p = 0.09), although there was a significant increase in fasting glucose and a decline in intermediate physical activity. Men and women with normal or intermediate levels of risk factors had significantly lower all-cause, CVD and CHD mortality risk than persons with high levels of risk factors. Subjects with 5–6 healthy factors had hazard ratio (HR) of CVD mortality 0.35 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.15–0.83) compared to average risk in the whole population. The hazard ratio for CVD mortality risk was significant in men (HR 0.34, 95% CI 0.12–0.97) but not in women (HR 0.38, 95% CI 0.09–1.67).

Conclusions

An inverse association of most healthy levels of cardiovascular risk factors with risk of all-cause and CVD mortality was observed in this urban population-based cohort. A greater number of cardiovascular health factors were related with significantly lower risk of CVD mortality, particularly among men.     

Life Expectancies of South African Adults Starting Antiretroviral Treatment: Collaborative Analysis of Cohort Studies

Background

Few estimates exist of the life expectancy of HIV-positive adults receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) in low- and middle-income countries. We aimed to estimate the life expectancy of patients starting ART in South Africa and compare it with that of HIV-negative adults.

Methods and Findings

Data were collected from six South African ART cohorts. Analysis was restricted to 37,740 HIV-positive adults starting ART for the first time. Estimates of mortality were obtained by linking patient records to the national population register. Relative survival models were used to estimate the excess mortality attributable to HIV by age, for different baseline CD4 categories and different durations. Non-HIV mortality was estimated using a South African demographic model. The average life expectancy of men starting ART varied between 27.6 y (95% CI: 25.2–30.2) at age 20 y and 10.1 y (95% CI: 9.3–10.8) at age 60 y, while estimates for women at the same ages were substantially higher, at 36.8 y (95% CI: 34.0–39.7) and 14.4 y (95% CI: 13.3–15.3), respectively. The life expectancy of a 20-y-old woman was 43.1 y (95% CI: 40.1–46.0) if her baseline CD4 count was ≥200 cells/µl, compared to 29.5 y (95% CI: 26.2–33.0) if her baseline CD4 count was <50 cells/µl. Life expectancies of patients with baseline CD4 counts ≥200 cells/µl were between 70% and 86% of those in HIV-negative adults of the same age and sex, and life expectancies were increased by 15%–20% in patients who had survived 2 y after starting ART. However, the analysis was limited by a lack of mortality data at longer durations.

Conclusions

South African HIV-positive adults can have a near-normal life expectancy, provided that they start ART before their CD4 count drops below 200 cells/µl. These findings demonstrate that the near-normal life expectancies of HIV-positive individuals receiving ART in high-income countries can apply to low- and middle-income countries as well. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Four Decades of Educational Inequalities in Hospitalization and Mortality among Older Swedes

Background

The inverse association between education and mortality has grown stronger the last decades in many countries. During the same period, gains in life expectancy have been concentrated to older ages; still, old-age mortality is seldom the focus of attention when analyzing trends in the education-mortality gradient. It is further unknown if increased educational inequalities in mortality are preceded by increased inequalities in morbidity of which hospitalization may be a proxy.

Methods

Using administrative population registers from 1971 and onwards, education-specific annual changes in the risk of death and hospital admission were estimated with complimentary log-log models. These risk changes were supplemented by estimations of the ages at which 25, 50, and 75% of the population had been hospitalized or died (after age 60).

Results

The mortality decline among older people increasingly benefitted the well-educated over the less well-educated. This inequality increase was larger for the younger old, and among men. Educational inequalities in the age of a first hospital admission generally followed the development of growing gaps, but at a slower pace than mortality and inequalities did not increase among the oldest individuals.

Conclusions

Education continues to be a significant predictor of health and longevity into old age. That the increase in educational inequalities is greater for mortality than for hospital admissions (our proxy of overall morbidity) may reflect that well-educated individuals gradually have obtained more possibilities or resources to survive a disease than less well-educated individuals have the last four decades.     

Combined impact of health behaviours and mortality in men and women: the EPIC-Norfolk prospective population study

Background

There is overwhelming evidence that behavioural factors influence health, but their combined impact on the general population is less well documented. We aimed to quantify the potential combined impact of four health behaviours on mortality in men and women living in the general community.

Methods and Findings

We examined the prospective relationship between lifestyle and mortality in a prospective population study of 20,244 men and women aged 45–79 y with no known cardiovascular disease or cancer at baseline survey in 1993–1997, living in the general community in the United Kingdom, and followed up to 2006. Participants scored one point for each health behaviour: current non-smoking, not physically inactive, moderate alcohol intake (1–14 units a week) and plasma vitamin C >50 mmol/l indicating fruit and vegetable intake of at least five servings a day, for a total score ranging from zero to four. After an average 11 y follow-up, the age-, sex-, body mass–, and social class–adjusted relative risks (95% confidence intervals) for all-cause mortality(1,987 deaths) for men and women who had three, two, one, and zero compared to four health behaviours were respectively, 1.39 (1.21–1.60), 1.95 (1.70–-2.25), 2.52 (2.13–3.00), and 4.04 (2.95–5.54) p < 0.001 trend. The relationships were consistent in subgroups stratified by sex, age, body mass index, and social class, and after excluding deaths within 2 y. The trends were strongest for cardiovascular causes. The mortality risk for those with four compared to zero health behaviours was equivalent to being 14 y younger in chronological age.

Conclusions

Four health behaviours combined predict a 4-fold difference in total mortality in men and women, with an estimated impact equivalent to 14 y in chronological age.     

Prioritizing child health interventions in ethiopia: modeling impact on child mortality, life expectancy and inequality in age at death

Background

The fourth Millennium Development Goal calls for a two-thirds reduction in under-5 mortality between 1990 and 2015. Under-5 mortality rate is declining, but many countries are still far from achieving the goal. Effective child health interventions that could reduce child mortality exist, but national decision-makers lack contextual information for priority setting in their respective resource-constrained settings. We estimate the potential health impact of increasing coverage of 14 selected health interventions on child mortality in Ethiopia (2011–2015). We also explore the impact on life expectancy and inequality in the age of death (Gini_health).

Methods and Findings

We used the Lives Saved Tool to estimate potential impact of scaling-up 14 health interventions in Ethiopia (2011–2015). Interventions are scaled-up to 1) government target levels, 2) 90% coverage and 3) 90% coverage of the five interventions with the highest impact. Under-5 mortality rate, neonatal mortality rate and deaths averted are primary outcome measures. We used modified life tables to estimate impact on life expectancy at birth and inequality in the age of death (Gini_health). Under-5 mortality rate declines from 101.0 in 2011 to 68.8, 42.1 and 56.7 per 1000 live births under these three scenarios. Prioritizing child health would also increase life expectancy at birth from expected 60.5 years in 2015 to 62.5, 64.2 and 63.4 years and reduce inequality in age of death (Gini_health) substantially from 0.24 to 0.21, 0.18 and 0.19.

Conclusions

The Millennium Development Goal for child health is reachable in Ethiopia. Prioritizing child health would also increase total life expectancy at birth and reduce inequality in age of death substantially (Gini_health).     

Personalized Prediction of Lifetime Benefits with Statin Therapy for Asymptomatic Individuals: A Modeling Study

Background

Physicians need to inform asymptomatic individuals about personalized outcomes of statin therapy for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, current prediction models focus on short-term outcomes and ignore the competing risk of death due to other causes. We aimed to predict the potential lifetime benefits with statin therapy, taking into account competing risks.

Methods and Findings

A microsimulation model based on 5-y follow-up data from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort of individuals aged 55 y and older living in the Ommoord district of Rotterdam, the Netherlands, was used to estimate lifetime outcomes with and without statin therapy. The model was validated in-sample using 10-y follow-up data. We used baseline variables and model output to construct (1) a web-based calculator for gains in total and CVD-free life expectancy and (2) color charts for comparing these gains to the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) charts. In 2,428 participants (mean age 67.7 y, 35.5% men), statin therapy increased total life expectancy by 0.3 y (SD 0.2) and CVD-free life expectancy by 0.7 y (SD 0.4). Age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, hypertension, lipids, diabetes, glucose, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, and creatinine were included in the calculator. Gains in total and CVD-free life expectancy increased with blood pressure, unfavorable lipid levels, and body mass index after multivariable adjustment. Gains decreased considerably with advancing age, while SCORE 10-y CVD mortality risk increased with age. Twenty-five percent of participants with a low SCORE risk achieved equal or larger gains in CVD-free life expectancy than the median gain in participants with a high SCORE risk.

Conclusions

We developed tools to predict personalized increases in total and CVD-free life expectancy with statin therapy. The predicted gains we found are small. If the underlying model is validated in an independent cohort, the tools may be useful in discussing with patients their individual outcomes with statin therapy. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Decline in cardiovascular mortality in North Karelia and other parts of Finland.

The trends in mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular stroke, and all cardiovascular diseases were analysed for the province of North Karelia and for the rest of Finland. Linear trends in mortality were computed for the population aged 35 to 64 for the period from 1969 to 1982, and changes in mortality between the three year means of 1969-71 and 1980-2 were calculated. In North Karelia, where a community based preventive programme has been carried out since 1972, the annual decline in mortality from ischaemic heart disease in men was on average 2.9%, whereas in the rest of Finland it was 2.0%. For women the respective average annual declines in mortality were 4.9% and 3.0%. The net decline from 1969-71 to 1980-2 in North Karelia was 100 deaths/100,000 men. The annual mortality from all cardiovascular disease in men decreased by 2.9% in North Karelia and by 2.6% in the rest of Finland; in women the decreases were 6.0% and 5.0% a year, respectively. The net decline in North Karelia was 71 deaths/100,000 men. The decline in mortality from all causes was also appreciable in both sexes in North Karelia, but it did not differ significantly from national trends.     

Impact of Pregnancy-Related Deaths on Female Life Expectancy in Zambia: Application of Life Table Techniques to Census Data

Introduction

Since 2000, the world has been coalesced around efforts to reduce maternal mortality. However, few studies have estimated the significance of eliminating maternal deaths on female life expectancy. We estimated, based on census data, the potential gains in female life expectancy assuming complete elimination of pregnancy-related mortality in Zambia.

Methods

We used data on all-cause and pregnancy-related deaths of females aged 15–49 reported in the Zambia 2010 census, and evaluated, adjusted and smoothed them using existing and verified techniques. We used associated single decrement life tables, assuming complete elimination of pregnancy-related deaths to estimate the potential gains in female life expectancy at birth, at age 15, and over the ages 15–49. We compared these gains with the gains from eliminating deaths from accidents, injury, violence and suicide.

Results

Complete elimination of pregnancy-related deaths would extend life expectancy at birth among Zambian women by 1.35 years and life expectancy at age 15 by 1.65 years. In rural areas, this would be 1.69 years and 2.19 years, respectively, and in urban areas, 0.78 years and 0.85 years. An additional 0.72 years would be spent in the reproductive age group 15–49; 1.00 years in rural areas and 0.35 years in urban areas. Eliminating deaths from accidents, injury, suicide and violence among women aged 15–49 would cumulatively contribute 0.55 years to female life expectancy at birth.

Conclusion

Eliminating pregnancy-related mortality would extend female life expectancy in Zambia substantially, with more gains among adolescents and females in rural areas. The application of life table techniques to census data proved very valuable, although rigorous evaluation and adjustment of reported deaths and age was necessary to attain plausible estimates. The collection of detailed high quality cause-specific mortality data in future censuses is indispensable.     

Age-Period-Cohort Projections of Ischaemic Heart Disease Mortality by Socio-Economic Position in a Rapidly Transitioning Chinese Population

Background

With economic development and population aging, ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is becoming a leading cause of mortality with widening inequalities in China. To forewarn the trends in China we projected IHD trends in the most economically developed part of China, i.e., Hong Kong.

Methods

Based on sex-specific IHD mortality rates from 1976 to 2005, we projected mortality rates by neighborhood-level socio-economic position (i.e., low- or high-income groups) to 2020 in Hong Kong using Poisson age-period-cohort models with autoregressive priors.

Results

In the low-income group, age-standardized IHD mortality rates among women declined from 33.3 deaths in 1976–1980 to 19.7 per 100,000 in 2016–2020 (from 55.5 deaths to 34.2 per 100,000 among men). The rates in the high-income group were initially higher in both sexes, particularly among men, but this had reversed by the end of the study periods. The rates declined faster for the high-income group than for the low-income group in both sexes. The rates were projected to decline faster in the high-income group, such that by the end of the projection period the high-income group would have lower IHD mortality rates, particularly for women. Birth cohort effects varied with sex, with a marked upturn in IHD mortality around 1945, i.e., for the first generation of men to grow up in a more economically developed environment. There was no such upturn in women. Birth cohort effects were the main drivers of change in IHD mortality rates.

Conclusion

IHD mortality rates are declining in Hong Kong and are projected to continue to do so, even taking into account greater vulnerability for the first generation of men born into a more developed environment. At the same time social disparities in IHD have reversed and are widening, partly as a result of a cohort effect, with corresponding implications for prevention.     

Gender Differentials in Self-Rated Health and Self-Reported Disability among Adults in India

Background

The extant literature on gender differentials in health in developed countries suggests that women outlive men at all ages, but women report poorer health than men. It is well established that Indian women live longer than men, but few studies have been conducted to understand the gender dimension in self-rated health and self-reported disability. The present study investigates gender differentials in self-rated health (SRH) and self-reported disability (SRD) among adults in India, using a nationally representative data.

Methods

Using data on 10,736 respondents aged 18 and older in the 2007 WHO Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health in India, prevalence estimates of SRH are calculated separately for men and women by socio-economic and demographic characteristics. The association of SRH with gender is tested using a multinomial logistic regression method. SRD is assessed using 20 activities of daily living (ADL). Further, gender differences in total life expectancy (TLE), disability life expectancy (DLE) and the proportion of life spent with a disability at various adult ages are measured.

Results

The relative risk of reporting poor health by women was significantly higher than men (relative risk ratio: 1.660; 95% confidence Interval (CI): 1.430–1.927) after adjusting for socio-economic and demographic characteristics. Women reported higher prevalence of severe and extreme disability than men in 14 measures out of a total20 ADL measures. Women aged less than 60 years reported two times more than men in SRD ≥ 5 ADLs. Finally, both DLE and proportion of life spent with a disability were substantially higher for women irrespective of their ages.

Conclusion

Indian women live longer but report poorer health than men. A substantial gender differential is found in self-reported disability. This makes for an urgent call to health researchers and policy makers for gender-sensitive programs.     

Infant mortality in Sri Lanka

Infant mortality in Sri Lanka declined substantially between 1961 and 1980, the reduction being higher during the post-natal period. 3 distinct phases were identified: 1) a declining trend in the face of several fluctuations; 2) a sharp reversal of the trend and then an increase; and 3) a more consistent decline. Between the periods 1961-65 and 1976-80, deaths from exogenous and endogenous causes were reduced considerably and nearly equally. The probabilities of survival increased in every age group, proportionally more in the 1st week of life. There was no evidence that changes in national income or total food supply were factors, but protein calorie availability appeared to affect the rate. Distribution of free supplementary food, increase in public health personnel, more immunization, and a rise in the number of institutional births appeared to have initiated and sustained the more recent decline in infant mortality. Increasing levels of female education also augmented these developments. Further efforts to improve living conditions, access to safe water and flush or water-seal toilets, and motivating women to deliver in institutions and extend their postnatal stay, would probably result in a further decline, as well as general strategies such as integrating public health and medical services and improving health education programs.