Multiple Merger Genealogies in Outbreaks of Mycobacterium tuberculosis

The Kingman coalescent and its developments are often considered among the most important advances in population genetics of the last decades. Demographic inference based on coalescent theory has been used to reconstruct the population dynamics and evolutionary history of several species, including Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB), an important human pathogen causing tuberculosis. One key assumption of the Kingman coalescent is that the number of descendants of different individuals does not vary strongly, and violating this assumption could lead to severe biases caused by model misspecification. Individual lineages of MTB are expected to vary strongly in reproductive success because 1) MTB is potentially under constant selection due to the pressure of the host immune system and of antibiotic treatment, 2) MTB undergoes repeated population bottlenecks when it transmits from one host to the next, and 3) some hosts show much higher transmission rates compared with the average (superspreaders).Here, we used an approximate Bayesian computation approach to test whether multiple-merger coalescents (MMC), a class of models that allow for large variation in reproductive success among lineages, are more appropriate models to study MTB populations. We considered 11 publicly available whole-genome sequence data sets sampled from local MTB populations and outbreaks and found that MMC had a better fit compared with the Kingman coalescent for 10 of the 11 data sets. These results indicate that the null model for analyzing MTB outbreaks should be reassessed and that past findings based on the Kingman coalescent need to be revisited.     

Effects of tick population dynamics and host densities on the persistence of tick-borne infections

The transmission and the persistence of tick-borne infections are strongly influenced by the densities and the structure of host populations. By extending previous models and analysis, in this paper we analyse how the persistence of ticks and pathogens, is affected by the dynamics of tick populations, and by their host densities. The effect of host densities on infection persistence is explored through the analysis and simulation of a series of models that include different assumptions on tick-host dynamics and consider different routes of infection transmission. Ticks are assumed to feed on two types of host species which vary in their reservoir competence. Too low densities of competent hosts (i.e., hosts where transmission can occur) do not sustain the infection cycle, while too high densities of incompetent hosts may dilute the competent hosts so much to make infection persistence impossible. A dilution effect may occur also for competent hosts as a consequence of reduced tick to host ratio; this is possible only if the regulation of tick populations is such that tick density does not increase linearly with host densities.     

Partitioning the influence of ecology across scales on parasite evolution

Vector‐borne parasites must succeed at three scales to persist: they must proliferate within a host, establish in vectors, and transmit back to hosts. Ecology outside the host undergoes dramatic seasonal and human‐induced changes, but predicting parasite evolutionary responses requires integrating their success across scales. We develop a novel, data‐driven model to titrate the evolutionary impact of ecology at multiple scales on human malaria parasites. We investigate how parasites invest in transmission versus proliferation, a life‐history trait that influences disease severity and spread. We find that transmission investment controls the pattern of host infectiousness over the course of infection: a trade‐off emerges between early and late infectiousness, and the optimal resolution of that trade‐off depends on ecology outside the host. An expanding epidemic favors rapid proliferation, and can overwhelm the evolutionary influence of host recovery rates and mosquito population dynamics. If transmission investment and recovery rate are positively correlated, then ecology outside the host imposes potent selection for aggressive parasite proliferation at the expense of transmission. Any association between transmission investment and recovery represents a key unknown, one that is likely to influence whether the evolutionary consequences of interventions are beneficial or costly for human health.     

Transmission rates and adaptive evolution of pathogens in sympatric heterogeneous plant populations

Diversification in agricultural cropping patterns is widely practised to delay the build-up of virulent races that can overcome host resistance in pathogen populations. This can lead to balanced polymorphism, but the long-term consequences of this strategy for the evolution of crop pathogen populations are still unclear. The widespread occurrence of sibling species and reproductively isolated sub-species among fungal and oomycete plant pathogens suggests that evolutionary divergence is common. This paper develops a mathematical model of host-pathogen interactions using a simple framework of two hosts to analyse the influences of sympatric host heterogeneity on the long-term evolutionary behaviour of plant pathogens. Using adaptive dynamics, which assumes that sequential mutations induce small changes in pathogen fitness, we show that evolutionary outcomes strongly depend on the shape of the trade-off curve between pathogen transmission on sympatric hosts. In particular, we determine the conditions under which the evolutionary branching of a monomorphic into a dimorphic population occurs, as well as the conditions that lead to the evolution of specialist (single host range) or generalist (multiple host range) pathogen populations.     

Emergence of influenza A viruses.

Pandemic influenza in humans is a zoonotic disease caused by the transfer of influenza A viruses or virus gene segments from animal reservoirs. Influenza A viruses have been isolated from avian and mammalian hosts, although the primary reservoirs are the aquatic bird populations of the world. In the aquatic birds, influenza is asymptomatic, and the viruses are in evolutionary stasis. The aquatic bird viruses do not replicate well in humans, and these viruses need to reassort or adapt in an intermediate host before they emerge in human populations. Pigs can serve as a host for avian and human viruses and are logical candidates for the role of intermediate host. The transmission of avian H5N1 and H9N2 viruses directly to humans during the late 1990s showed that land-based poultry also can serve between aquatic birds and humans as intermediate hosts of influenza viruses. That these transmission events took place in Hong Kong and China adds further support to the hypothesis that Asia is an epicentre for influenza and stresses the importance of surveillance of pigs and live-bird markets in this area.     

Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The persistence of bovine TB (bTB) in various countries throughout the world is enhanced by the existence of wildlife hosts for the infection. In Britain and Ireland, the principal wildlife host for bTB is the badger (Meles meles). The objective of our study was to examine the dynamics of bTB in badgers in relation to both badger-derived infection from within the population and externally-derived, trickle-type, infection, such as could occur from other species or environmental sources, using a spatial stochastic simulation model. RESULTS: The presence of external sources of infection can increase mean prevalence and reduce the threshold group size for disease persistence. Above the threshold equilibrium group size of 6-8 individuals predicted by the model for bTB persistence in badgers based on internal infection alone, external sources of infection have relatively little impact on the persistence or level of disease. However, within a critical range of group sizes just below this threshold level, external infection becomes much more important in determining disease dynamics. Within this critical range, external infection increases the ratio of intra- to inter-group infections due to the greater probability of external infections entering fully-susceptible groups. The effect is to enable bTB persistence and increase bTB prevalence in badger populations which would not be able to maintain bTB based on internal infection alone. CONCLUSIONS: External sources of bTB infection can contribute to the persistence of bTB in badger populations. In high-density badger populations, internal badger-derived infections occur at a sufficient rate that the additional effect of external sources in exacerbating disease is minimal. However, in lower-density populations, external sources of infection are much more important in enhancing bTB prevalence and persistence. In such circumstances, it is particularly important that control strategies to reduce bTB in badgers include efforts to minimise such external sources of infection.     

A Multi-scale Analysis of Influenza A Virus Fitness Trade-offs due to Temperature-dependent Virus Persistence

Successful replication within an infected host and successful transmission between hosts are key to the continued spread of most pathogens. Competing selection pressures exerted at these different scales can lead to evolutionary trade-offs between the determinants of fitness within and between hosts. Here, we examine such a trade-off in the context of influenza A viruses and the differential pressures exerted by temperature-dependent virus persistence. For a panel of avian influenza A virus strains, we find evidence for a trade-off between the persistence at high versus low temperatures. Combining a within-host model of influenza infection dynamics with a between-host transmission model, we study how such a trade-off affects virus fitness on the host population level. We show that conclusions regarding overall fitness are affected by the type of link assumed between the within- and between-host levels and the main route of transmission (direct or environmental). The relative importance of virulence and immune response mediated virus clearance are also found to influence the fitness impacts of virus persistence at low versus high temperatures. Based on our results, we predict that if transmission occurs mainly directly and scales linearly with virus load, and virulence or immune responses are negligible, the evolutionary pressure for influenza viruses to evolve toward good persistence at high within-host temperatures dominates. For all other scenarios, influenza viruses with good environmental persistence at low temperatures seem to be favored.     

Parasite-mediated selection in experimental metapopulations of Daphnia magna

In metapopulations, only a fraction of all local host populations may be infected with a given parasite species, and limited dispersal of parasites suggests that colonization of host populations by parasites may involve only a small number of parasite strains. Using hosts and parasites obtained from a natural metapopulation, we studied the evolutionary consequences of invasion by single strains of parasites in experimental populations of the cyclical parthenogen Daphnia magna. In two experiments, each spanning approximately one season, we monitored clone frequency changes in outdoor container populations consisting of 13 and 19 D. magna clones, respectively. The populations were either infected with single strains of the microsporidian parasites Octosporea bayeri or Ordospora colligata or left unparasitized. In both experiments, infection changed the representation of clones over time significantly, indicating parasite-mediated evolution in the experimental populations. Furthermore, the two parasite species changed clone frequencies differently, suggesting that the interaction between infection and competitive ability of the hosts was specific to the parasite species. Taken together, our results suggest that parasite strains that invade local host populations can lead to evolutionary changes in the genetic composition of the host population and that this change is parasite-species specific.     

Evolution of complex life cycles in trophically transmitted helminths. I. Host incorporation and trophic ascent

Links between parasites and food webs are evolutionarily ancient but dynamic: life history theory provides insights into helminth complex life cycle origins. Most adult helminths benefit by sexual reproduction in vertebrates, often high up food chains, but direct infection is commonly constrained by a trophic vacuum between free‐living propagules and definitive hosts. Intermediate hosts fill this vacuum, facilitating transmission to definitive hosts. The central question concerns why sexual reproduction, and sometimes even larval growth, is suppressed in intermediate hosts, favouring growth arrest at larval maturity in intermediate hosts and reproductive suppression until transmission to definitive hosts? Increased longevity and higher growth in definitive hosts can generate selection for larger parasite body size and higher fecundity at sexual maturity. Life cycle length is increased by two evolutionary mechanisms, upward and downward incorporation, allowing simple (one‐host) cycles to become complex (multihost). In downward incorporation, an intermediate host is added below the definitive host: models suggest that downward incorporation probably evolves only after ecological or evolutionary perturbations create a trophic vacuum. In upward incorporation, a new definitive host is added above the original definitive host, which subsequently becomes an intermediate host, again maintained by the trophic vacuum: theory suggests that this is plausible even under constant ecological/evolutionary conditions. The final cycle is similar irrespective of its origin (upward or downward). Insights about host incorporation are best gained by linking comparative phylogenetic analyses (describing evolutionary history) with evolutionary models (examining selective forces). Ascent of host trophic levels and evolution of optimal host taxa ranges are discussed.     

Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection up-regulates MFN2 expression to promote NLRP3 inflammasome formation

Tuberculosis (TB), caused by the infection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB), is one of the leading causes of death worldwide, especially in children. However, the mechanisms by which MTB infects its cellular host, activates an immune response, and triggers inflammation remain unknown. Mitochondria play important roles in the initiation and activation of the nucleotide-binding oligomerization domain-like receptor with a pyrin domain 3 (NLRP3) inflammasome, where mitochondria-associated endoplasmic reticulum membranes (MAMs) may serve as the platform for inflammasome assembly and activation. Additionally, mitofusin 2 (MFN2) is implicated in the formation of MAMs, but, the roles of mitochondria and MFN2 in MTB infection have not been elucidated. Using mircroarry profiling of TB patients and in vitro MTB stimulation of macrophages, we observed an up-regulation of MFN2 in the peripheral blood mononuclear cells of active TB patients. Furthermore, we found that MTB stimulation by MTB-specific antigen ESAT-6 or lysate of MTB promoted MFN2 interaction with NLRP3 inflammasomes, resulting in the assembly and activation of the inflammasome and, subsequently, IL-1β secretion. These findings suggest that MFN2 and mitochondria play important role in the pathogen-host interaction during MTB infection.     

Contact transmission of Tobacco mosaic virus: a quantitative analysis of parameters relevant for virus evolution

Transmission between hosts is required for the maintenance of parasites in the host population and determines their ultimate evolutionary success. The transmission ability of parasites conditions their evolution in two ways: on one side, it affects the genetic structure of founded populations in new hosts. On the other side, parasite traits that increase transmission efficiency will be selected for. Therefore, knowledge of the factors and parameters that determine transmission efficiency is critical to predict the evolution of parasites. For plant viruses, little is known about the parameters of contact transmission, a major way of transmission of important virus genera and species. Here, we analyze the factors determining the efficiency of contact transmission of Tobacco mosaic virus (TMV) that may affect virus evolution. As it has been reported for other modes of transmission, the rate of TMV transmission by contact depended on the contact opportunities between an infected and a noninfected host. However, TMV contact transmission differed from other modes of transmission, in that a positive correlation between the virus titer in the source leaf and the rate of transmission was not found within the range of our experimental conditions. Other factors associated with the nature of the source leaf, such as leaf age and the way in which it was infected, had an effect on the rate of transmission. Importantly, contact transmission resulted in severe bottlenecks, which did not depend on the host susceptibility to infection. Interestingly, the effective number of founders initiating the infection of a new host was highly similar to that reported for aphid-transmitted plant viruses, suggesting that this trait has evolved to an optimum value.     

Maternal antibodies contribute to sex-based difference in hantavirus transmission dynamics

Individuals often differ in their ability to transmit disease and identifying key individuals for transmission is a major issue in epidemiology. Male hosts are often thought to be more important than females for parasite transmission and persistence. However, the role of infectious females, particularly the transient immunity provided to offspring through maternal antibodies (MatAbs), has been neglected in discussions about sex-biased infection transmission. We examined the effect of host sex upon infection dynamics of zoonotic Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) in semi-natural, experimental populations of bank vole (Myodes glareolus). Populations were founded with either females or males that were infected with PUUV, whereas the other sex was immunized against PUUV infection. The likelihood of the next generation being infected was lower when the infected founders were females, underlying the putative importance of adult males in PUUV transmission and persistence in host populations. However, we show that this effect probably results from transient immunity that infected females provide to their offspring, rather than any sex-biased transmission efficiency per se. Our study proposes a potential contrasting nature of female and male hosts in the transmission dynamics of hantaviruses.     

Temperature-dependent transmission and latency of Holospora undulata, a micronucleus-specific parasite of the ciliate Paramecium caudatum

Transmission of parasites to new hosts crucially depends on the timing of production of transmission stages and their capacity to start an infection. These parameters may be influenced by genetic factors, but also by the environment. We tested the effects of temperature and host genotype on infection probability and latency in experimental populations of the ciliate Paramecium caudatum, after exposure to infectious forms of its bacterial parasite Holospora undulata. Temperature had a significant effect on the expression of genetic variation for transmission and maintenance of infection. Overall, low temperature (10 degrees C) increased levels of (multiple) infection, but arrested parasite development; higher temperatures (23 and 30 degrees C) accelerated the onset of production of infectious forms, but limited transmission success. Viability of infectious forms declined rapidly at 23 and 30 degrees C, thereby narrowing the time window for transmission. Thus, environmental conditions can generate trade-offs between transmission relevant parameters and alter levels of multiple infection or parasite-mediated selection, which may affect evolutionary trajectories of parasite life history or virulence.     

Interactions between host sex and age of exposure modify the virulence–transmission trade‐off

The patterns of immunity conferred by host sex or age represent two sources of host heterogeneity that can potentially shape the evolutionary trajectory of disease. With each host sex or age encountered, a pathogen's optimal exploitative strategy may change, leading to considerable variation in expression of pathogen transmission and virulence. To date, these host characteristics have been studied in the context of host fitness alone, overlooking the effects of host sex and age on the fundamental virulence–transmission trade‐off faced by pathogens. Here, we explicitly address the interaction of these characteristics and find that host sex and age at exposure to a pathogen affect age‐specific patterns of mortality and the balance between pathogen transmission and virulence. When infecting age‐structured male and female Daphnia magna with different genotypes of Pasteuria ramosa, we found that infection increased mortality rates across all age classes for females, whereas mortality only increased in the earliest age class for males. Female hosts allowed a variety of trade‐offs between transmission and virulence to arise with each age and pathogen genotype. In contrast, this variation was dampened in males, with pathogens exhibiting declines in both virulence and transmission with increasing host age. Our results suggest that differences in exploitation potential of males and females to a pathogen can interact with host age to allow different virulence strategies to coexist, and illustrate the potential for these widespread sources of host heterogeneity to direct the evolution of disease in natural populations.     

Host-Seeking Behavior and Dispersal of Triatoma infestans,a Vector of Chagas Disease,under Semi-field Conditions

Chagas disease affects millions of people in Latin America. The control of this vector-borne disease focuses on halting transmission by reducing or eliminating insect vector populations. Most transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi, the causative agent of Chagas disease, involves insects living within or very close to households and feeding mostly on domestic animals. As animal hosts can be intermittently present it is important to understand how host availability can modify transmission risk to humans and to characterize the host-seeking dispersal of triatomine vectors on a very fine scale. We used a semi-field system with motion-detection cameras to characterize the dispersal of Triatoma infestans, and compare the behavior of vector populations in the constant presence of hosts (guinea pigs), and after the removal of the hosts. The emigration rate – net insect population decline in original refuge – following host removal was on average 19.7% of insects per 10 days compared to 10.2% in constant host populations (p = 0.029). However, dispersal of T. infestans occurred in both directions, towards and away from the initial location of the hosts. The majority of insects that moved towards the original location of guinea pigs remained there for 4 weeks. Oviposition and mortality were observed and analyzed in the context of insect dispersal, but only mortality was higher in the group where animal hosts were removed (p-value <0.01). We discuss different survival strategies associated with the observed behavior and its implications for vector control. Removing domestic animals in infested areas increases vector dispersal from the first day of host removal. The implications of these patterns of vector dispersal in a field setting are not yet known but could result in movement towards human rooms.     

Evolution of host resistance to parasite infection in the snail–schistosome–human system

The evolutionary strategies that emerge within populations can be dictated by numerous factors, including interactions with other species. In this paper, we explore the consequences of such a scenario using a host-parasite system of human concern. By analyzing the dynamical behaviors of a mathematical model we investigate the evolutionary outcomes resulting from interactions between Schistosoma mansoni and its snail and human hosts. The model includes two types of snail hosts representing resident and mutant types. Using this approach, we focus on establishing evolutionary stable strategies under conditions where snail hosts express different life-histories and when drug treatment is applied to an age-structured population of human hosts. Results from this work demonstrate that the evolutionary trajectories of host-parasite interactions can be varied, and at times, counter-intuitive, based on parasite virulence, host resistance, and drug treatment.     

Host-pathogen coevolution in human tuberculosis

Tuberculosis (TB) is a disease of antiquity. Yet TB today still causes more adult deaths than any other single infectious disease. Recent studies show that contrary to the common view postulating an animal origin for TB, Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC), the causative agent of TB, emerged as a human pathogen in Africa and colonized the world accompanying the Out-of-Africa migrations of modern humans. More recently, evolutionarily 'modern' lineages of MTBC expanded as a consequence of the global human population increase, and spread throughout the world following waves of exploration, trade and conquest. While epidemiological data suggest that the different phylogenetic lineages of MTBC might have adapted to different human populations, overall, the phylogenetically 'modern' MTBC lineages are more successful in terms of their geographical spread compared with the 'ancient' lineages. Interestingly, the global success of 'modern' MTBC correlates with a hypo-inflammatory phenotype in macrophages, possibly reflecting higher virulence, and a shorter latency in humans. Finally, various human genetic variants have been associated with different MTBC lineages, suggesting an interaction between human genetic diversity and MTBC variation. In summary, the biology and the epidemiology of human TB have been shaped by the long-standing association between MTBC and its human host.     

Diagnosis of latent tuberculosis infection is associated with reduced HIV viral load and lower risk for opportunistic infections in people living with HIV

Approximately 28% of the human population have been exposed to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB), with the overwhelming majority of infected individuals not developing disease (latent TB infection (LTBI)). While it is known that uncontrolled HIV infection is a major risk factor for the development of TB, the effect of underlying LTBI on HIV disease progression is less well characterized, in part because longitudinal data are lacking. We sorted all participants of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) with at least 1 documented MTB test into one of the 3 groups: MTB uninfected, LTBI, or active TB. To detect differences in the HIV set point viral load (SPVL), linear regression was used; the frequency of the most common opportunistic infections (OIs) in the SHCS between MTB uninfected patients, patients with LTBI, and patients with active TB were compared using logistic regression and time-to-event analyses. In adjusted models, we corrected for baseline demographic characteristics, i.e., HIV transmission risk group and gender, geographic region, year of HIV diagnosis, and CD4 nadir. A total of 13,943 SHCS patients had at least 1 MTB test documented, of whom 840 (6.0%) had LTBI and 770 (5.5%) developed active TB. Compared to MTB uninfected patients, LTBI was associated with a 0.24 decreased log HIV SPVL in the adjusted model (p < 0.0001). Patients with LTBI had lower odds of having candida stomatitis (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 0.68, p = 0.0035) and oral hairy leukoplakia (adjusted OR = 0.67, p = 0.033) when compared to MTB uninfected patients. The association of LTBI with a reduced HIV set point virus load and fewer unrelated infections in HIV/TB coinfected patients suggests a more complex interaction between LTBI and HIV than previously assumed.

Surprisingly little is known about how latent tuberculosis infection alters human physiology and immune function. Extensive statistical analyses of the large Swiss HIV Cohort Study suggests that latent tuberculosis infection can be protective in individuals with HIV.     

Epidemiology in evolutionary time: the case of Wolbachia horizontal transmission between arthropod host species

Wolbachia are bacterial endosymbionts that manipulate the reproduction of their arthropod hosts. Although theory suggests that infections are frequently lost within host species due to the evolution of resistance, Wolbachia infect a huge number of species worldwide. This apparent paradox suggests that horizontal transmission between host species has been a key factor in shaping the global Wolbachia pandemic. Because Wolbachia infections are thus acquired and lost like any other infection, we use a standard epidemiological model to analyse Wolbachia horizontal transmission dynamics over evolutionary time. Conceptually modifying the model, we apply it not to transmission between individuals but between species. Because, on evolutionary timescales, infections spread frequently between closely related species and occasionally over large phylogenetic distances, we represent the set of host species as a small‐world network that satisfies both requirements. Our model reproduces the effect of basic epidemiological parameters, which demonstrates the validity of our approach. We find that the ratio between transmission rate and recovery rate is crucial for determining the proportion of infected species (incidence) and that, in a given host network, the incidence may still be increasing over evolutionary time. Our results also point to the importance of occasional transmission over long phylogenetic distances for the observed high incidence levels of Wolbachia. In conclusion, we are able to explain why Wolbachia are so abundant among arthropods, although selection for resistance within hosts often leads to infection loss. Furthermore, our unorthodox approach of using epidemiology in evolutionary time can be applied to all symbionts that use horizontal transmission to infect new hosts.