Risk assessment for invasiveness differs for aquatic and terrestrial plant species

Predictive tools for preventing introduction of new species with high probability of becoming invasive in the U.S. must effectively distinguish non-invasive from invasive species. The Australian Weed Risk Assessment system (WRA) has been demonstrated to meet this requirement for terrestrial vascular plants. However, this system weights aquatic plants heavily toward the conclusion of invasiveness. We evaluated the accuracy of the WRA for 149 non-native aquatic species in the U.S., of which 33 are major invaders, 32 are minor invaders and 84 are non-invaders. The WRA predicted that all of the major invaders would be invasive, but also predicted that 83% of the non-invaders would be invasive. Only 1% of the non-invaders were correctly identified and 16% needed further evaluation. The resulting overall accuracy was 33%, dominated by scores for invaders. While the overall accuracy increased to 57% when the points assigned to aquatic life forms were removed, 57% of the non-invaders required further evaluation rather than were identified as having low probability of naturalizing. Discrimination between non-invaders and invaders would require an increase in the threshold score from the standard of 6 for this system to 19. That higher threshold resulted in accurate identification of 89% of the non-invaders and over 75% of the major invaders. Either further testing for definition of the optimal threshold or a separate screening system will be necessary for accurately predicting which freshwater aquatic plants are high risks for becoming invasive.     

Consistent accuracy of the Australian weed risk assessment system across varied geographies

The ecological and economic advantages of preventing introduction of species likely to become invasive have increased interest in implementing effective screening tools. We compared the accuracy of the Australian Weed Risk Assessment (WRA) system with that across the six geographies in which it has been tested (New Zealand, Hawaii, Hawaii and Pacific Islands, Czech Republic, Bonin Islands and Florida). Inclusion in four of the tests of a secondary screening tool, developed to reduce the number of species requiring further evaluation, decreased the number of species with that outcome by over 60% on average. Averaging across all tests demonstrated that the WRA system accurately identified major invaders 90%, and non-invaders 70%, of the time. Examined differently, a species of unknown invasive potential is on average likely to be correctly accepted or rejected over 80% of the time for all of these geographies when minor invaders are categorized as invasive. Whereas increasing consistency in definitions and implementation would facilitate understanding of the general application of the WRA system, we believe that this tool functions similarly across islands and continents in tropical and temperate climates and has been sufficiently tested to be adopted as an initial screen for plant species proposed for introduction to a new geography.     

A comprehensive description and evolutionary analysis of 9 Loliginidae mitochondrial genomes

Forty South American aquatic plant species were selected and categorised in four a priori status classes (alien naturalised, alien invasive, native and absent) according to expert opinion, for 16 South American regions (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Falklands Islands, French Guiana, Galapagos, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, South Georgia and South Sandwich Islands, Suriname, Uruguay and Venezuela). The 40 aquatic plant species were assessed using the US Aquatic Weed Risk Assessment (USAqWRA) scheme for each of the 16 South American regions, for a total number of 644 assessments and for South America (153 assessments). The method was benchmarked against expert opinion (invasive, non-invasive). We ranked 17 of them as naturalised, and 15 as invasive species in at least one South American region. The USAqWRA distinguished between non-invaders and invaders with an overall accuracy of 84.9% in South America and 54.1% in the 16 regions, with areas under the curves equal to 0.893 and 0.853, at a threshold score of 51.5 and 43.5, respectively. The study highlights that the USAqWRA could represent a suitable screening protocol to prioritise aquatic species that have the potential to cause negative impacts, prevent attempts of introduction and to manage risky aquatic plants in South America.     

Development and validation of a weed screening tool for the United States

The Australian weed risk assessment has been promoted as a simple and effective screening tool that can help prevent the entry of weeds and invasive plants into new areas. On average, the Australian model identifies major-invaders more accurately than it does non-invaders (90% vs. 70% accuracy). While this difference in performance emphasizes protection, the overall accuracy of the model will be determined by its performance with non-invaders because the frequency of invasive species among new plant introductions is relatively low. In this study, we develop a new weed risk assessment model for the entire United States that increases non-invader accuracy. The new screening tool uses two elements of risk, establishment/spread potential and impact potential, in a logistic regression model to evaluate the invasive/weedy potential of a species. We selected 204 non-invaders, minor-invaders, and major-invaders to develop and validate the new model, and compare its performance to the Australian model using the same set of species. Performing better than the Australian model, our new model accurately identified 94.1% of major-invaders and 97.1% of non-invaders, without committing any false positives or false negatives. The new secondary screening tool we developed reduced the number of species requiring secondary evaluation from 22 to 12%. We expect that the new weed risk assessment model should significantly enhance the United State’s timeliness and accuracy in regulating potential weeds.     

Predicting invasions by woody species in a temperate zone: a test of three risk assessment schemes in the Czech Republic (Central Europe)

To assess the validity of previously developed risk assessment schemes in the conditions of Central Europe, we tested (1) Australian weed risk assessment scheme (WRA; Pheloung et al . 1999); (2) WRA with additional analysis by Daehler et al . (2004); and (3) decision tree scheme of Reichard and Hamilton (1997) developed in North America, on a data set of 180 alien woody species commonly planted in the Czech Republic. This list included 17 invasive species, 9 naturalized but non-invasive, 31 casual aliens, and 123 species not reported to escape from cultivation. The WRA model with additional analysis provided best results, rejecting 100% of invasive species, accepting 83.8% of non-invasive, and recommending further 13.0% for additional analysis. Overall accuracy of the WRA model with additional analysis was 85.5%, higher than that of the basic WRA scheme (67.9%) and the Reichard–Hamilton model (61.6%). Only the Reichard–Hamilton scheme accepted some invaders. The probability that an accepted species will become an invader was zero for both WRA models and 3.2% for the Reichard–Hamilton model. The probability that a rejected species would have been an invader was 77.3% for both WRA models and 24.0% for the Reichard–Hamilton model. It is concluded that the WRA model, especially with additional analysis, appears to be a promising template for building a widely applicable system for screening out invasive plant introductions.     

Predicted versus actual invasiveness of climbing vines in Florida

Climbing vines cause substantial ecological and economic harm, and are disproportionately represented among invasive plant species. Thus, the ability to identify likely vine invaders would enhance the effectiveness of both prevention and management. We tested whether the Weed Risk Assessment (WRA) accurately predicted the current invasion status of 84 non-native climbing vines in Florida. Seventeen percent of the species require further evaluation before risk of invasion can be determined. Of the remaining 70 species, the WRA predicted that 70% were at high risk for invasion, but only 50% of the 84 species are currently invasive in Florida. The status and risk prediction were inconsistent for 27% of the species: 15 non-invaders were predicted to be of high risk for invasion (i.e., false positive) and 4 invaders were predicted to be of low risk (i.e., false negative). Longer residence time in the flora was significantly correlated with higher invasion risk. Further investigation is necessary to identify whether residence time explains inconsistencies between risk and status conclusions, or whether the WRA over-predicts invasion risk. Nevertheless, the effects of invasive vines on native systems coupled with the influence of time on invasion status, suggest a precautionary approach is warranted when considering the introduction and management of non-native vines.     

Predicting Invasive Plants: Prospects for a General Screening System Based on Current Regional Models

Screening systems for predicting invasive plants have been independently developed for the non-indigenous floras of North America, the South African fynbos, and Australia. To evaluate the performance of these screening systems outside the regions for which they were developed, we tested them for the non-indigenous flora of the Hawaiian Islands. When known invasive plant species in the Hawaiian Islands were evaluated using the North American and Australian systems, 82% and 93% of the species were predicted to be invasive, respectively, and the remainder were classified as requiring further study. The South African fynbos system correctly predicted only 60% of the invasive species in the Hawaiian Islands. All three screening systems correctly classified a majority of the non-invaders as non-invasive. The Australian system has several advantages over the other systems, including the highest level of correct identification of invaders (>90%), ability to evaluate non-woody plants, and ability to evaluate a species even when the answers to some questions are unknown. Nevertheless, with the Australian system, a large fraction of species known not to be invasive were recommended for further study before importing, so there remains room for improvement in identifying non-invasive species. Based on our results for the Hawaiian Islands and a previous evaluation in New Zealand, the Australian system appears to be a promising template for building a globally applicable system for screening out invasive plant introductions. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Predicting plant invaders in the Mediterranean through a weed risk assessment system

Risk assessment schemes have been developed to identify potential invasive species, prevent their spread and reduce their damaging effects. One of the most promising tools for detecting plant invaders is the weed risk assessment (WRA) scheme developed for Australia. Our study explores whether the Australian WRA can satisfactorily predict the invasion status of alien plants in the Mediterranean Basin by screening 100 invasive and 97 casual species in Spain. Furthermore, we analysed whether the factors taken into account in the WRA are linked to invasion likelihood (i.e., invasion status) or to impacts. The outcome was that 94% of the invasive species were rejected, 50% of the casual species were rejected and 29% of them required further evaluation. The accuracy for casuals is lower than in other studies that have tested non-invasive (i.e., casuals or non-escaped) alien species. We postulate that low accuracy for casual species could result from: (1) an incorrect “a priori” expert classification of the species status, (2) a high weight of the WRA scores given to potential impacts, and (3) casual species being prone to becoming invasive when reaching a minimum residence time threshold. Therefore, the WRA could be working as a precaution early-warning system to identify casual species with potential to become invasive.     

Big troubles are already here: risk assessment protocol shows high risk of many alien plants present in Portugal

Invasion by alien plants results in serious adverse impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem services, economy and social welfare, and is an ever-increasing challenge for nature conservation. Control of established invasive species is frequently very difficult and costly. Therefore, predicting which species have risk of becoming invasive is crucial both to prevent introduction of new invaders and to target high risk species already present in order to avoid their spread, particularly to areas with high conservation value. In Portugal more than 600 alien plant species are present as casuals or naturalized, and decision support tools are needed to discriminate which of these have higher probability of becoming invasive. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of the Australian Weed Risk Assessment, adapted to the Portuguese conditions (P-WRA), by evaluating 172 plant species: 49 considered as invasive; and, 123 as non-invasive species. The results showed that the P-WRA correctly identified all invasive species. As for non-invasive species, 17% were accepted, 78% rejected and 5% required further evaluation. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve reflected high accuracy of predictions despite lower than that found in other regions. The best cutoff level for P-WRA score, maximizing the ability for classification of the protocol, was 13 resulting in more non-invasive species accepted (46%). In the end, this assessment informed that in addition to the 49 species already invasive, a high number (66) of alien plant species have invasive risk. Amongst these, a list of 20 species is proposed for targeted priority management aiming to prevent their spread. Comparison of the scores obtained with A-WRA for other regions with Mediterranean climate revealed that 17% of the species compared (78) reached different outcomes, signaling the need to be careful when extrapolating the use of previous scores. The P-WRA can be a promising screening system post-border for predicting invasive species already present in Portugal and contribute to the targeting of species for priority intervention, particularly in natural areas with high conservation value.     

An ounce of prevention or a pound of cure: bioeconomic risk analysis of invasive species

Numbers of non-indigenous species--species introduced from elsewhere - are increasing rapidly worldwide, causing both environmental and economic damage. Rigorous quantitative risk-analysis frameworks, however, for invasive species are lacking. We need to evaluate the risks posed by invasive species and quantify the relative merits of different management strategies (e.g. allocation of resources between prevention and control). We present a quantitative bioeconomic modelling framework to analyse risks from non-indigenous species to economic activity and the environment. The model identifies the optimal allocation of resources to prevention versus control, acceptable invasion risks and consequences of invasion to optimal investments (e.g. labour and capital). We apply the model to zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha), and show that society could benefit by spending up to US$324 000 year(-1) to prevent invasions into a single lake with a power plant. By contrast, the US Fish and Wildlife Service spent US$825 000 in 2001 to manage all aquatic invaders in all US lakes. Thus, greater investment in prevention is warranted.     

Co-invasion of similar invaders results in analogous ecological impact niches and no synergies

Exotic species can cause changes to their invaded ecosystems, which can be large and long lasting. Despite most landscapes being invaded by multiple exotic plant species, >90 % of impact studies only characterize the impacts of single species. Therefore, our knowledge of invasive plant impacts does not reflect the co-invaded nature of most landscapes, potentially ignoring complex interactions among exotic species. Our objective was to characterize potential invader synergies (positive interactions) on biotic and abiotic ecological parameters among the important forest invaders Japanese stiltgrass (Microstegium vimineum) and wavyleaf basketgrass (Oplismenus undulatifolius), which co-invade eastern US deciduous forests. To characterize synergies, we used a factorial selective removal study, as well as an observational study to further explore invader cover-impact relationships. Although both invaders can reduce native plant richness by 70 % individually or in combination, there were no impact synergies. Total cover of any combination of the two invaders had a negative quadratic effect on total, exotic, and native plant richness; i.e., all community metrics were greatest at intermediate levels of total invader cover and lowest at maximum invader cover. Native richness was more greatly affected than exotic richness by the co-invasion. Soil metrics had no clear trend in either study. Japanese stiltgrass and wavyleaf basketgrass appear to have overlapping impact niches—the number, magnitude, and direction of biotic and abiotic changes to the invaded ecosystem—that only vary in impact magnitude, not breadth. As a result of their overlapping impact niches and non-synergies in this co-invaded system, the addition of the recent invader wavyleaf basketgrass has not resulted in additional changes to the invaded forests. Future impact studies should focus on multiple species and identifying synergies, especially as they relate to invader cover, which informs ecological interactions and management prioritization.     

Assessing the risk of potentially invasive plant species in central Europe

A risk assessment system was developed to assess the invasion potential of new environmental weeds in central Europe. A pre-evaluation step excludes species that are officially controlled, widespread, or intended for use in protected cultures only. Species eligible for risk assessment are classified into three categories (high risk, further observation required, low risk) by rating them according to various biogeographical and ecological aspects. The rating system was validated by testing 47 well-known invasive plant species of temperate Europe and 193 exotic plants which have failed to establish themselves in Switzerland. The overall accuracy was 65%. Accuracy of correctly predicting invasive species was 77%, while accuracy of correctly predicting non-invasive species was 62%. The proposed risk assessment protocol should be understood as a first attempt for a European country and needs modifications. These can only be achieved by applying the system in practice.     

Superior performance and nutrient-use efficiency of invasive plants over non-invasive congeners in a resource-limited environment

Invasive plant species are often found to have advantages over native species in growth-related traits, such as photosynthetic rate, in disturbed or resource-rich environments. However, resource-use efficiency, rather than opportunistic resource capture, may confer more advantages when resources are scarce. In this study, performance and functional traits of invasive and non-invasive members of the genus Pinus were contrasted under the condition of nutrient limitations. Invasive species outperformed non-invasive congeners by growing 28% faster, on average. Invasives and non-invasives did not differ in biomass allocation traits (root-weight ratio, stem-weight ratio, leaf-weight ratio, leaf area ratio, root: shoot coefficient), but invaders had thinner and/or less dense leaves, as shown by a significantly lower leaf mass per area and leaf dry mass fraction. No differences between invasives and non-invasives were apparent in area-based leaf content of nitrogen, chlorophyll, or total protein, nor did the two groups differ in how efficiently they took up nutrients (specific absorption rate per unit root mass). The trait most strongly associated with invasives’ superior performance was photosynthetic nitrogen-use efficiency. Non-invaders were more water-use efficient. The results suggests that the relative performance of invasive and non-invasive species is context-dependent. Invaders may allocate leaf nitrogen more efficiently to maximize photosynthesis and growth in nitrogen-poor soils, while non-invaders with more heavily defended leaves may have an advantage in drier areas. Rather than searching for a suite of traits that constitutes “invasiveness”, it may be necessary to identify potential invaders by traits that are most adaptive to the local resource context.     

Evaluation of the Australian weed risk assessment system for the prediction of plant invasiveness in Canada

The Australian Weed Risk Assessment system has been tested in a number of countries and geographical areas since its introduction in 1997, and is widely considered to be an accurate method of predicting the risk of invasiveness of new plant introductions. We evaluated the system against 152 plant species with at least a 50-year introduction history in Canada, including major and minor weeds and species which have not naturalized. Four questions that referred explicitly to Australian conditions were replaced with appropriate equivalent questions for Canada. The weediness of each species was independently rated by a panel of Canadian agricultural, botanical, and conservation experts. Using the standard cut-off scores, the system correctly rejected all major and 86% of minor weeds. However, it also incorrectly rejected 44% of non-weedy species. The diagnostic power of the system, as measured by the receiver operating characteristic curve, was similar to but somewhat lower than that found in other regions where the system has been evaluated. Answers to 23 of the 49 questions were not significantly associated with experts’ weediness ratings, indicating that a simplified system could give equally reliable results for Canada. Experts’ ratings were strongly related to cold-hardiness, suggesting that the system could be improved by making better use of data on climatic tolerances. We suggest that performance would also be improved by combining likelihood- and consequence-related scores in a multiplicative rather than additive way.     

Evaluating the necessity of additional aquatic plant testing by comparing the sensitivities of different species

At present, at least three and up to five plant species are required to assess the potential risks of herbicides to non-target aquatic plants. Several regulatory authorities are considering whether there should be further requirements based on concerns about the possible selectivity of herbicides (e.g., specific modes of action against dicotyledonous plants). The relative sensitivity of a range of aquatic plants is assessed in our work in order to evaluate the implications of differences in species sensitivity for aquatic risk assessment of herbicides. We therefore present results from ecotoxicological tests performed at Syngenta Crop Protection AG on various aquatic plants and compare them to available studies and results in literature. The criterion used for sensitivity ranking is the EC50 (median effect concentration) value, which allows a better comparison of values from different testing methods and conditions. The overall results obtained in the present work show that the aquatic risk assessment procedure for herbicides based on Lemna sp. and algae is sufficiently protective while identifying potential toxicity to non-target plants. Only few exceptions concerning herbicides with selective modes of action (e.g., auxin simulators) may require additional species testing for proper risk assessment.     

A global risk assessment for the success of bird introductions

1.  Concern over the impact of invasive species has led to the development of risk assessment methodologies to identify potential invaders and prevent future ecological and economic problems. However, developing a risk assessment tool is challenging because of the difficulties of accurately predicting the outcome of species introductions.
2.  In this study, we develop a global risk assessment for birds. We integrate two approaches, generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) and hierarchical tree models, to help identify those introductions with the highest risk of establishment success.
3.  Past work has shown that the number of individuals released is the main factor influencing establishment success in animals, a conclusion that was supported in our analyses. Establishment success was also higher for species with broader ecological niches and larger brains relative to body size. These features should increase the likelihood of finding an appropriate niche in the region of introduction.
4.  The GLMM and tree model predicted the probability of establishment success of birds in Europe and Australia with high accuracy (over 80% of introductions correctly classified). This highlights that establishment risk can be reasonably assessed with information on general habitat use, brain size and the size of the founder population. When compared with an alternative risk assessment tool based on a qualitative ranking, our quantitative approaches achieved higher accuracy with less information.
5.   Synthesis and applications. Quantitative risk assessments based on traits related to establishment success are difficult but feasible, providing a useful tool for guiding preventive polices aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive species.     

Invaders are not a random selection of species

We assembled information on 119 species of freshwater macroinvertebrate invaders in North America and Europe, and compared them to all native freshwater species in North America and Europe. We tested whether the invaders were a random or selected group among taxa (phylum or class), water quality requirements, and feeding habit. We found that freshwater macroinvertebrate invaders are not a random selection of species, and are over-represented by molluscs and crustaceans, while taxa richness of native communities are dominated by insects. Over 35% of native species of aquatic invertebrates in North America are only able to live in areas with excellent or very good water quality, and are intolerant of organic pollution. In contrast, all invaders are tolerant of at least moderate amounts of organic pollution. There was a significant difference in the distribution of feeding habits between native species and invaders: collector-filterers (including suspension feeders) were 2.5–3 times more abundant, and predators were 3–4 times less abundant among invaders than among native invertebrates. The ongoing spread of exotic species affects the biodiversity of selected taxa, shifts communities toward greater tolerance of organic pollution and increases the numbers of suspension feeders, thereby enhancing benthic pelagic coupling in waterbodies with high densities of invaders. Because these processes are very similar in Europe and North America, we suggest that the observed patterns may have a common global effect.     

When does invasive species removal lead to ecological recovery? Implications for management success

The primary goal of invasive species management is to eliminate or reduce populations of invasive species. Although management efforts are often motivated by broader goals such as to reduce the negative impacts of invasive species on ecosystems and society, there has been little assessment of the consistency between population-based (e.g., removing invaders) and broader goals (e.g., recovery of ecological systems) for invasive species management. To address this, we conducted a comprehensive review of studies (N = 151) that removed invasive species and assessed ecological recovery over time. We found positive or mixed outcomes in most cases, but 31% of the time ecological recovery did not occur or there were negative ecological outcomes, such as increases in non-target invasive species. Ecological recovery was more likely in areas with relatively little anthropogenic disturbance and few other invaders, and for the recovery of animal populations and communities compared to plant communities and ecosystem processes. Elements of management protocols, such as whether invaders were eradicated (completely removed) versus aggressively suppressed (≥90% removed), did not affect the likelihood of ecological recovery. Our findings highlight the importance of considering broader goals and unintended outcomes when designing and implementing invasive species management programs.     

Matrix analysis to model the invasion of alligatorweed (Alternanthera philoxeroides) on Kentucky lakes

Aims Alligatorweed (Alternanthera philoxeroides (Mart.) Griseb.) is an invasive species indigenous to South America. With its rapid invasion of southeastern US waterways, understanding the invasiveness of this plant species is critical for providing possible mechanisms of prevention for resource managers. The aim of this project is to use a matrix model to study the invasion dynamics of alligatorweed under both terrestrial and aquatic environments. The use of this model allows for a deeper understanding of the invasiveness and life history–stage structure of alligatorweed. In particular, matrix analysis can further test the hypothesis that certain life stages of alligatorweed might be more sensitive to control and management.Methods A greenhouse experiment was conducted to study the spread of alligatorweed under both aquatic and terrestrial environments. Utilizing the growth data obtained during the summer of 2010, matrix analysis was used to model the growth of alligatorweed for six different treatments. Transition matrices were generated based on plant measurements taken at different life stages defined by the number of leaves or nodes. These matrices are population projection models whose eigenvalues represent the growth rate of alligatorweed. A high growth rate is a key feature of successful invaders. Residuals were calculated and sensitivity analysis was performed to test the accuracy of the model and importance of each life stage over the entire life cycle of alligatorweed.Important findings The results of this study indicate that in the aquatic habitat, plants at their early life cycle stage are most sensitive to potential control measures. Conversely, in the terrestrial habitat, the most sensitive stage of alligatorweed is at its late life cycle stage, characterized with large-sized plants, thus suggesting the best timing for management and eradication of this invasive species.     

Assessing the areas under risk of invasion within islands through potential distribution modelling: The case of Pittosporum undulatum in São Miguel, Azores

Non-indigenous plant species have been frequently reported as successful invaders in island environments, changing plant community composition and structure. This is the case of the sweet pittosporum (Pittosporum undulatum), native from Australia, which is one of the most successful plant invaders in the Azores archipelago. Data extracted from recent forestry inventories were used to model and map the potential distribution of P. undulatum in São Miguel, the larger island of the Azores. Current distribution of P. undulatum is related to climate, altitude and some human activity effects. Further analysis of the areas under risk of invasion showed that protected areas are under potential threat, although only a few native forest remnants seem to be threatened due to future expansion of P. undulatum, since the current distribution of these native communities has been reduced due to clearing and competition with invasive plants. We discuss the threats that any further expansion of the species will represent for low-altitude native forests, as well as the utility of species distribution models in the assessment of the areas under risk of invasion.