Spatial resilience of the Great Barrier Reef under cumulative disturbance impacts

In the face of increasing cumulative effects from human and natural disturbances, sustaining coral reefs will require a deeper understanding of the drivers of coral resilience in space and time. Here we develop a high‐resolution, spatially explicit model of coral dynamics on Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Our model accounts for biological, ecological and environmental processes, as well as spatial variation in water quality and the cumulative effects of coral diseases, bleaching, outbreaks of crown‐of‐thorns starfish (Acanthaster cf. solaris), and tropical cyclones. Our projections reconstruct coral cover trajectories between 1996 and 2017 over a total reef area of 14,780 km², predicting a mean annual coral loss of ?0.67%/year mostly due to the impact of cyclones, followed by starfish outbreaks and coral bleaching. Coral growth rate was the highest for outer shelf coral communities characterized by digitate and tabulate Acropora spp. and exposed to low seasonal variations in salinity and sea surface temperature, and the lowest for inner‐shelf communities exposed to reduced water quality. We show that coral resilience (defined as the net effect of resistance and recovery following disturbance) was negatively related to the frequency of river plume conditions, and to reef accessibility to a lesser extent. Surprisingly, reef resilience was substantially lower within no‐take marine protected areas, however this difference was mostly driven by the effect of water quality. Our model provides a new validated, spatially explicit platform for identifying the reefs that face the greatest risk of biodiversity loss, and those that have the highest chances to persist under increasing disturbance regimes.     

A unified model explains commonness and rarity on coral reefs

Abundance patterns in ecological communities have important implications for biodiversity maintenance and ecosystem functioning. However, ecological theory has been largely unsuccessful at capturing multiple macroecological abundance patterns simultaneously. Here, we propose a parsimonious model that unifies widespread ecological relationships involving local aggregation, species‐abundance distributions, and species associations, and we test this model against the metacommunity structure of reef‐building corals and coral reef fishes across the western and central Pacific. For both corals and fishes, the unified model simultaneously captures extremely well local species‐abundance distributions, interspecific variation in the strength of spatial aggregation, patterns of community similarity, species accumulation, and regional species richness, performing far better than alternative models also examined here and in previous work on coral reefs. Our approach contributes to the development of synthetic theory for large‐scale patterns of community structure in nature, and to addressing ongoing challenges in biodiversity conservation at macroecological scales.     

Marine protected areas increase resilience among coral reef communities

With marine biodiversity declining globally at accelerating rates, maximising the effectiveness of conservation has become a key goal for local, national and international regulators. Marine protected areas (MPAs) have been widely advocated for conserving and managing marine biodiversity yet, despite extensive research, their benefits for conserving non‐target species and wider ecosystem functions remain unclear. Here, we demonstrate that MPAs can increase the resilience of coral reef communities to natural disturbances, including coral bleaching, coral diseases, Acanthaster planci outbreaks and storms. Using a 20‐year time series from Australia's Great Barrier Reef, we show that within MPAs, (1) reef community composition was 21–38% more stable; (2) the magnitude of disturbance impacts was 30% lower and (3) subsequent recovery was 20% faster that in adjacent unprotected habitats. Our results demonstrate that MPAs can increase the resilience of marine communities to natural disturbance possibly through herbivory, trophic cascades and portfolio effects.     

Metacommunity,mainland‐island system or island communities? Assessing the regional dynamics of plant communities in a fragmented landscape

Understanding the regional dynamics of plant communities is crucial for predicting the response of plant diversity to habitat fragmentation. However, for fragmented landscapes the importance of regional processes, such as seed dispersal among isolated habitat patches, has been controversially debated. Due to the stochasticity and rarity of among‐patch dispersal and colonization events, we still lack a quantitative understanding of the consequences of these processes at the landscape‐scale. In this study, we used extensive field data from a fragmented, semi‐arid landscape in Israel to parameterize a multi‐species incidence‐function model. This model simulates species occupancy pattern based on patch areas and habitat configuration and explicitly considers the locations and the shapes of habitat patches for the derivation of patch connectivity. We implemented an approximate Bayesian computation approach for parameter inference and uncertainty assessment. We tested which of the three types of regional dynamics – the metacommunity, the mainland‐island, or the island communities type – best represents the community dynamics in the study area and applied the simulation model to estimate the extinction debt in the investigated landscape. We found that the regional dynamics in the patch‐matrix study landscape is best represented as a system of highly isolated ‘island’ communities with low rates of propagule exchange among habitat patches and consequently low colonization rates in local communities. Accordingly, the extinction rates in the local communities are the main drivers of community dynamics. Our findings indicate that the landscape carries a significant extinction debt and in model projections 33–60% of all species went extinct within 1000 yr. Our study demonstrates that the combination of dynamic simulation models with field data provides a promising approach for understanding regional community dynamics and for projecting community responses to habitat fragmentation. The approach bears the potential for efficient tests of conservation activities aimed at mitigating future losses of biodiversity.     

Life histories predict coral community disassembly under multiple stressors

Climate change is reshaping biological communities against a background of existing human pressure. Evaluating the impacts of multiple stressors on community dynamics can be particularly challenging in species‐rich ecosystems, such as coral reefs. Here, we investigate whether life‐history strategies and cotolerance to different stressors can predict community responses to fishing and temperature‐driven bleaching using a 20‐year time series of coral assemblages in Kenya. We found that the initial life‐history composition of coral taxa largely determined the impacts of bleaching and coral loss. Prior to the 1998 bleaching event, coral assemblages within no‐take marine reserves were composed of three distinct life histories – competitive, stress‐tolerant and weedy– and exhibited strong declines following bleaching with limited subsequent recovery. In contrast, fished reefs had lower coral cover, fewer genera and were composed of stress‐tolerant and weedy corals that were less affected by bleaching over the long term. Despite these general patterns, we found limited evidence for cotolerance as coral genera and life histories were variable in their sensitivities to fishing and bleaching. Overall, fishing and bleaching have reduced coral diversity and led to altered coral communities of ‘survivor’ species with stress‐tolerant and weedy life histories. Our findings are consistent with expectations that climate change interacting with existing human pressure will result in the loss of coral diversity and critical reef habitat.     

Community evolution increases plant productivity at low diversity

Species extinctions from local communities negatively affect ecosystem functioning. Ecological mechanisms underlying these impacts are well studied, but the role of evolutionary processes is rarely assessed. Using a long‐term field experiment, we tested whether natural selection in plant communities increased biodiversity effects on productivity. We re‐assembled communities with 8‐year co‐selection history adjacent to communities with identical species composition but no history of co‐selection (‘naïve communities’). Monocultures, and in particular mixtures of two to four co‐selected species, were more productive than their corresponding naïve communities over 4 years in soils with or without co‐selected microbial communities. At the highest diversity level of eight plant species, no such differences were observed. Our findings suggest that plant community evolution can lead to rapid increases in ecosystem functioning at low diversity but may take longer at high diversity. This effect was not modified by treatments simulating co‐evolutionary processes between plants and soil organisms.     

Similar regional effects among local habitats on the structure of tropical reef fish and coral communities

Aim We examined data on corals and reef fishes to determine how particular local habitat types contribute to variation in community structure across regions covering gradients in species richness and how consistent this was over time. Location Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Methods We compared large‐scale (1300 km), long‐term (11 years) data on fishes and corals that were collected annually at fixed sites in three habitats (inshore, mid‐shelf and outer‐shelf reefs) and six regions (latitudinal sectors) along a gradient of regional species richness in both communities. We used canonical approaches to partition variation in community structure (sites × species abundance data matrices) into components associated with habitat, region and time and Procrustes analyses to assess the degree of concordance between coral and fish community structure. Results Remarkably similar patterns emerged for both fish and coral communities occupying the same sites. Reefs that had similar coral communities also had similar fish communities. The fraction of the community data that could be explained by regional effects, independent of pure habitat effects, was similar in both fish (33%) and coral (36.9%) communities. Pure habitat effects were slightly greater in the fish (31.3%) than in the coral (20.1%) community. Time explained relatively little variation (fish = 7.9%, corals = 9.6%) compared with these two spatial factors. Conclusions Our results indicate either that fish and coral communities were structured in similar ways by processes associated with region, habitat and time, or that the variation in fish community structure tracked variation associated with the coral communities at these sites and thereby reflects an indirect link between the environment and the structure of fish communities mediated by corals. Irrespective of the causes of such commonality, we demonstrate that community structure, not just species richness, can be related to both habitat differences and regional setting simultaneously.     

Fish community reassembly after a coral mass mortality: higher trophic groups are subject to increased rates of extinction

Since Gleason and Clements, our understanding of community dynamics has been influenced by theories emphasising either dispersal or niche assembly as central to community structuring. Determining the relative importance of these processes in structuring real‐world communities remains a challenge. We tracked reef fish community reassembly after a catastrophic coral mortality in a relatively unfished archipelago. We revisited the stochastic model underlying MacArthur and Wilson's Island Biogeography Theory, with a simple extension to account for trophic identity. Colonisation and extinction rates calculated from decadal presence‐absence data based on (1) species neutrality, (2) trophic identity and (3) site‐specificity were used to model post‐disturbance reassembly, and compared with empirical observations. Results indicate that species neutrality holds within trophic guilds, and trophic identity significantly increases overall model performance. Strikingly, extinction rates increased clearly with trophic position, indicating that fish communities may be inherently susceptible to trophic downgrading even without targeted fishing of top predators.     

Understanding the Spatio-Temporal Response of Coral Reef Fish Communities to Natural Disturbances: Insights from Beta-Diversity Decomposition

Understanding how communities respond to natural disturbances is fundamental to assess the mechanisms of ecosystem resistance and resilience. However, ecosystem responses to natural disturbances are rarely monitored both through space and time, while the factors promoting ecosystem stability act at various temporal and spatial scales. Hence, assessing both the spatial and temporal variations in species composition is important to comprehensively explore the effects of natural disturbances. Here, we suggest a framework to better scrutinize the mechanisms underlying community responses to disturbances through both time and space. Our analytical approach is based on beta diversity decomposition into two components, replacement and biomass difference. We illustrate this approach using a 9-year monitoring of coral reef fish communities off Moorea Island (French Polynesia), which encompassed two severe natural disturbances: a crown-of-thorns starfish outbreak and a hurricane. These disturbances triggered a fast logistic decline in coral cover, which suffered a 90% decrease on all reefs. However, we found that the coral reef fish composition remained largely stable through time and space whereas compensatory changes in biomass among species were responsible for most of the temporal fluctuations, as outlined by the overall high contribution of the replacement component to total beta diversity. This suggests that, despite the severity of the two disturbances, fish communities exhibited high resistance and the ability to reorganize their compositions to maintain the same level of total community biomass as before the disturbances. We further investigated the spatial congruence of this pattern and showed that temporal dynamics involved different species across sites; yet, herbivores controlling the proliferation of algae that compete with coral communities were consistently favored. These results suggest that compensatory changes in biomass among species and spatial heterogeneity in species responses can provide further insurance against natural disturbances in coral reef ecosystems by promoting high levels of key species (herbivores). They can also allow the ecosystem to recover more quickly.     

Methods for tracking sagebrush‐steppe community trajectories and quantifying resilience in relation to disturbance and restoration

Understanding how plant community dynamics are impacted by altered disturbance regimes is a pressing challenge for restoration ecology. Most assessments of community dynamics involve computationally intensive statistical techniques, while management often defers to derived, qualitative “state‐and‐transition” models. Here, we demonstrate an intermediate approach to track and predict community resilience, diversifying the tools available to assess ecosystem change. First, we develop indices of sagebrush‐steppe community structure in permanent monitoring plots based on plant functional types and our conceptual understanding of the ecosystem. The indices define a bivariate space within which the trajectories of permanent monitoring plots can be tracked. Second, we quantify two metrics of community resilience: resistance (overall change during the time period) and stability (average amount of movement per monitoring period). Plots dominated by obligate seeder shrubs displayed low resilience relative to those dominated by grasses and forbs or resprouting shrubs. Resilience was strongly related to initial plant functional type composition and elevation. Our results suggest restoration objectives should consider how plant traits control ecosystem responses to disturbance. We suggest that the approach developed here can help assess longer‐term resilience, evaluate restoration success, and identify communities at risk of state transitions.     

Habitat dynamics,marine reserve status,and the decline and recovery of coral reef fish communities

Severe climatic disturbance events often have major impacts on coral reef communities, generating cycles of decline and recovery, and in some extreme cases, community‐level phase shifts from coral‐ to algal‐dominated states. Benthic habitat changes directly affect reef fish communities, with low coral cover usually associated with low fish diversity and abundance. No‐take marine reserves (NTRs) are widely advocated for conserving biodiversity and enhancing the sustainability of exploited fish populations. Numerous studies have documented positive ecological and socio‐economic benefits of NTRs; however, the ability of NTRs to ameliorate the effects of acute disturbances on coral reefs has seldom been investigated. Here, we test these factors by tracking the dynamics of benthic and fish communities, including the important fishery species, coral trout (Plectropomus spp.), over 8 years in both NTRs and fished areas in the Keppel Island group, Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Two major disturbances impacted the reefs during the monitoring period, a coral bleaching event in 2006 and a freshwater flood plume in 2011. Both disturbances generated significant declines in coral cover and habitat complexity, with subsequent declines in fish abundance and diversity, and pronounced shifts in fish assemblage structure. Coral trout density also declined in response to the loss of live coral, however, the approximately 2:1 density ratio between NTRs and fished zones was maintained over time. The only post‐disturbance refuges for coral trout spawning stocks were within the NTRs that escaped the worst effects of the disturbances. Although NTRs had little discernible effect on the temporal dynamics of benthic or fish communities, it was evident that the post‐disturbance refuges for coral trout spawning stocks within some NTRs may be critically important to regional‐scale population persistence and recovery.     

What does species richness tell us about functional trait diversity? Predictions and evidence for responses of species and functional trait diversity to land‐use change

In the conservation literature on land‐use change, it is often assumed that land‐use intensification drives species loss, driving a loss of functional trait diversity and ecosystem function. Modern research, however, does not support this cascade of loss for all natural systems. In this paper we explore the errors in this assumption and present a conceptual model taking a more mechanistic approach to the species–functional trait association in a context of land‐use change. We provide empirical support for our model's predictions demonstrating that the association of species and functional trait diversity follows various trajectories in response to land‐use change. The central premise of our model is that land‐use change impacts upon processes of community assembly, not species per se. From the model, it is clear that community context (i.e. type of disturbance, species pool size) will affect the response trajectory of the relationship between species and functional trait diversity in communities undergoing land‐use change. The maintenance of ecosystem function and of species diversity in the face of increasing land‐use change are complementary goals. The use of a more ecologically realistic model of responses of species and functional traits will improve our ability to make wise management decisions to achieve both aims in specific at‐risk systems.     

Severe drought drives novel community trajectories in desert stream pools

1. Ecological communities can be relatively stable for long periods of time, and then, often as a result of disturbance, transition rapidly to a novel state. When communities fail to recover to pre‐disturbance configurations, they are said to have experienced a regime shift or to be in an alternative stable state. 2. In this 8‐year study, we quantified the effects of complete water loss and subsequent altered disturbance regime on aquatic insect communities inhabiting a formerly perennial desert stream. We monitored two study pools seasonally for 4 years before and 4 years after the transition from perennial to intermittent flow to evaluate pre‐drying community dynamics and post‐drying recovery trajectories. 3. Mean species richness was not affected by the transition to intermittent flow, though seasonal patterns of richness did change. Sample densities were much higher in post‐drying samples. 4. The stream pool communities underwent a catastrophic regime shift after transition to intermittent flow, moving to an alternative stable state with novel seasonal trajectories, and did not recover to pre‐drying configurations after 4 years. Six invertebrate species were extirpated by the initial drying event, while other species were as much as 40 times more abundant in post‐drying samples. In general, large‐bodied top predators were extirpated from the system and replaced with high abundances of smaller‐bodied mesopredators. 5. Our results suggest that the loss of perennial flow caused by intensified droughts and water withdrawals could lead to significant changes in community structure and species composition at local and regional scales.     

Interactive effects of three pervasive marine stressors in a post-disturbance coral reef

Ecosystems are commonly affected by natural, episodic disturbances that can abruptly and drastically alter communities. Although it has been shown that resilient ecosystems can eventually recover to pre-disturbed states, the extent to which communities in early stages of recovery could be affected by multiple anthropogenic stressors is poorly understood. Pervasive and rising anthropogenic stressors in coastal marine systems that could interactively affect the recovery of these systems following natural disturbances include high sedimentation, nutrient enrichment, and overfishing. Using a 6-month field experiment, we examined the effects of all combinations of these three stressors on key functional groups in the benthic community growing on simulated, post-disturbance reef patches within a system recovering from large-scale natural disturbances (corallivorous seastar outbreak and cyclone). Our study revealed that sedimentation, nutrient enrichment, and overfishing (simulated using exclusion cages) interactively affected coral survival and algal growth, with taxon-specific effects at multiple scales. First, our treatments affected corals and algae differently, with sedimentation being more detrimental to macroalgal growth but less detrimental to coral (Porites rus) survival in caged plots, driving significant interactions between sedimentation and caging for both taxa. We also observed distinct responses between coral species and between algal functional groups, with the most extensive responses from algal turf biomass, for which sedimentation suppressed the synergistic (positive) combined effect of nutrient enrichment and caging. Our findings suggest that different combinations of ubiquitous anthropogenic stressors, related to either sea- or land-based activities, interactively influence community recovery from disturbance and may alter species compositions in the resulting community. Our findings further suggest that anthropogenic stressors could promote further degradation of coral reefs following natural disturbances by inhibiting recovery to coral-dominated states that provide vital ecosystem services to coastal populations worldwide.     

Annual variation of community biomass is lower in more diverse stream fish communities

Anthropogenic influences have disproportionally affected freshwater ecosystems, and a loss of biodiversity is forecasted to greatly reduce ecosystem function and services. Loss of species may destabilize communities by limiting the stabilizing forces of compensatory dynamics and/or statistical averaging, both of which are effects that can buffer variation in aggregate community properties. Currently, support for positive diversity‐stability relationships stems from experiments with simple communities at small spatial and temporal scales, and application to natural communities is limited. Using a long‐term dataset of 35 stream fish communities matched with hydrologic data, we show that community stability (annual variation of standing biomass of fishes) was less variable in more species‐rich communities and was not associated with stream hydrology. Only the statistical averaging model of community stability was consistent with observed patterns of lower biomass variation in more species‐rich communities. Our findings suggest anthropogenically induced extirpation of vertebrate consumers may lower community biomass stability in complex ecosystems.     

Near‐term impacts of coral restoration on target species,coral reef community structure,and ecological processes

The global decline of corals has created an urgent need for effective, science‐based methods to augment coral populations and restore important ecosystem functions. To meet this challenge, the field of coral restoration has rapidly evolved over the past decade. However, despite widespread efforts to outplant corals and monitor survivorship, there is a shortage of information on the effects of coral restoration on reef communities or important ecosystem functions. To fill this knowledge gap, we examined the effects of restoration on three major criteria: diversity, community structure, and ecological processes. We conducted surveys of four restored sites in the Florida Keys ranging in restoration effort (500–2,300 corals outplanted) paired with surveys of nearby, unmanipulated control sites. Coral restoration successfully enhanced coral populations, increasing coral cover 4‐fold, but manifested in limited differences in coral and fish communities. Some restored sites had higher abundance of herbivorous fish, rates of herbivory, or more juvenile‐sized corals, but these effects were limited to individual reefs. Damselfish were consistently more abundant at restored compared to control sites. Despite augmenting target coral populations, 3 years of coral restoration has not facilitated many of the positive feedbacks that help reinforce coral success. In a time of increasingly frequent disturbances, it is urgent we hasten the speed at which reefs recover important ecological processes, such as herbivory and nutrient cycling, that make reefs more resistant and resilient if we are to achieve long‐term restoration success.     

Testing a ‘genes‐to‐ecosystems’ approach to understanding aquatic–terrestrial linkages

A ‘genes‐to‐ecosystems’ approach has been proposed as a novel avenue for integrating the consequences of intraspecific genetic variation with the underlying genetic architecture of a species to shed light on the relationships among hierarchies of ecological organization (genes → individuals → communities → ecosystems). However, attempts to identify genes with major effect on the structure of communities and/or ecosystem processes have been limited and a comprehensive test of this approach has yet to emerge. Here, we present an interdisciplinary field study that integrated a common garden containing different genotypes of a dominant, riparian tree, Populus trichocarpa, and aquatic mesocosms to determine how intraspecific variation in leaf litter alters both terrestrial and aquatic communities and ecosystem functioning. Moreover, we incorporate data from extensive trait screening and genome‐wide association studies estimating the heritability and genes associated with litter characteristics. We found that tree genotypes varied considerably in the quality and production of leaf litter, which contributed to variation in phytoplankton abundances, as well as nutrient dynamics and light availability in aquatic mesocosms. These ‘after‐life’ effects of litter from different genotypes were comparable to the responses of terrestrial communities associated with the living foliage. We found that multiple litter traits corresponding with aquatic community and ecosystem responses differed in their heritability. Moreover, the underlying genetic architecture of these traits was complex, and many genes contributed only a small proportion to phenotypic variation. Our results provide further evidence that genetic variation is a key component of aquatic–terrestrial linkages, but challenge the ability to predict community or ecosystem responses based on the actions of one or a few genes.     

Fish communities diverge in species but converge in traits over three decades of warming

Describing the spatial and temporal dynamics of communities is essential for understanding the impacts of global environmental change on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Trait‐based approaches can provide better insight than species‐based (i.e. taxonomic) approaches into community assembly and ecosystem functioning, but comparing species and trait dynamics may reveal important patterns for understanding community responses to environmental change. Here, we used a 33‐year database of fish monitoring to compare the spatio‐temporal dynamics of taxonomic and trait structure in North Sea fish communities. We found that the majority of variation in both taxonomic and trait structure was explained by a pronounced spatial gradient, with distinct communities in the southern and northern North Sea related to depth, sea surface temperature, salinity and bed shear stress. Both taxonomic and trait structure changed significantly over time; however taxonomically, communities in the south and north diverged towards different species, becoming more dissimilar over time, yet they converged towards the same traits regardless of species differences. In particular, communities shifted towards smaller, faster growing species with higher thermal preferences and pelagic water column position. Although taxonomic structure changed over time, its spatial distribution remained relatively stable, whereas in trait structure, the southern zone of the North Sea shifted northward and expanded, leading to homogenization. Our findings suggest that global environmental change, notably climate warming, will lead to convergence towards traits more adapted for novel environments regardless of species composition.     

Modeling the Impact of White-Plague Coral Disease in Climate Change Scenarios

Coral reefs are in global decline, with coral diseases increasing both in prevalence and in space, a situation that is expected only to worsen as future thermal stressors increase. Through intense surveillance, we have collected a unique and highly resolved dataset from the coral reef of Eilat (Israel, Red Sea), that documents the spatiotemporal dynamics of a White Plague Disease (WPD) outbreak over the course of a full season. Based on modern statistical methodologies, we develop a novel spatial epidemiological model that uses a maximum-likelihood procedure to fit the data and assess the transmission pattern of WPD. We link the model to sea surface temperature (SST) and test the possible effect of increasing temperatures on disease dynamics. Our results reveal that the likelihood of a susceptible coral to become infected is governed both by SST and by its spatial location relative to nearby infected corals. The model shows that the magnitude of WPD epidemics strongly depends on demographic circumstances; under one extreme, when recruitment is free-space regulated and coral density remains relatively constant, even an increase of only 0.5°C in SST can cause epidemics to double in magnitude. In reality, however, the spatial nature of transmission can effectively protect the community, restricting the magnitude of annual epidemics. This is because the probability of susceptible corals to become infected is negatively associated with coral density. Based on our findings, we expect that infectious diseases having a significant spatial component, such as Red-Sea WPD, will never lead to a complete destruction of the coral community under increased thermal stress. However, this also implies that signs of recovery of local coral communities may be misleading; indicative more of spatial dynamics than true rehabilitation of these communities. In contrast to earlier generic models, our approach captures dynamics of WPD both in space and time, accounting for the highly seasonal nature of annual WPD outbreaks.