Evidence of genomic adaptation to climate in Eucalyptus microcarpa: Implications for adaptive potential to projected climate change

Understanding whether populations can adapt in situ or whether interventions are required is of key importance for biodiversity management under climate change. Landscape genomics is becoming an increasingly important and powerful tool for rapid assessments of climate adaptation, especially in long‐lived species such as trees. We investigated climate adaptation in Eucalyptus microcarpa using the DArTseq genomic approach. A combination of F_ST outlier and environmental association analyses were performed using >4200 genomewide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 26 populations spanning climate gradients in southeastern Australia. Eighty‐one SNPs were identified as putatively adaptive, based on significance in F_ST outlier tests and significant associations with one or more climate variables related to temperature (70/81), aridity (37/81) or precipitation (35/81). Adaptive SNPs were located on all 11 chromosomes, with no particular region associated with individual climate variables. Climate adaptation appeared to be characterized by subtle shifts in allele frequencies, with no consistent fixed differences identified. Based on these associations, we predict adaptation under projected changes in climate will include a suite of shifts in allele frequencies. Whether this can occur sufficiently rapidly through natural selection within populations, or would benefit from assisted gene migration, requires further evaluation. In some populations, the absence or predicted increases to near fixation of particular adaptive alleles hint at potential limits to adaptive capacity. Together, these results reinforce the importance of standing genetic variation at the geographic level for maintaining species’ evolutionary potential.     

Drought tolerance and growth in populations of a wide‐ranging tree species indicate climate change risks for the boreal north

Choosing drought‐tolerant planting stock in reforestation programs may help adapt forests to climate change. To inform such reforestation strategies, we test lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Doug. ex Loud. var latifolia Englm.) population response to drought and infer potential benefits of a northward transfer of seeds from drier, southern environments. The objective is addressed by combining dendroecological growth analysis with long‐term genetic field trials. Over 500 trees originating from 23 populations across western North America were destructively sampled in three experimental sites in southern British Columbia, representing a climate warming scenario. Growth after 32 years from provenances transferred southward or northward over long distances was significantly lower than growth of local populations. All populations were affected by a severe natural drought event in 2002. The provenances from the most southern locations showed the highest drought tolerance but low productivity. Local provenances were productive and drought tolerant. Provenances from the boreal north showed lower productivity and less drought tolerance on southern test sites than all other sources, implying that maladaptation to drought may prevent boreal populations from taking full advantage of more favorable growing conditions under projected climate change.     

Shifts in population size structure for a drying‐tolerant fish in response to extreme drought

For freshwater systems, climate change‐induced alterations to drought regimes are a considerable threat to already threatened species. This is particularly poignant for kōwaro (or Canterbury mudfish, Neochanna burrowsius), a critically endangered fish largely restricted to drying‐prone waterways on the Canterbury Plains, New Zealand. By comparing three catchment‐wide surveys (2007, 2010, 2015) within the Waianiwaniwa Valley, we assessed the scale and magnitude of population change induced by 2 years of consecutive drought (2014–15), when compared to surveys during wetter conditions (2007, 2010). The droughts triggered a catchment‐wide switch from adult‐dominated populations to populations comprised of juveniles indicated by a significant reduction in median size (~95 mm during the wet to ~60 mm after drought). In comparison, population abundances were highly variable, indicated by no significant change in catch‐per‐unit‐effort. The large variation in catch rates and connection of median size to reproductive potential mean median size will be useful to measure in monitoring to infer potential changes to population resilience, particularly during extreme events. Furthermore, because N. burrowsius could be regarded as extremophile fish, already restricted to harsh habitats, they are likely to become increasingly threatened by climate change. Thus, tools that allow for insightful comparisons between populations, such as a population resilience framework based on both abundance and body size distribution, will be increasingly important for pragmatic decision‐making for targeted conservation measures.     

Experimental migration upward in elevation is associated with strong selection on life history traits

One of the strongest biological impacts of climate change has been the movement of species poleward and upward in elevation. Yet, what is not clear is the extent to which the spatial distribution of locally adapted lineages and ecologically important traits may also shift with continued climate change. Here, we take advantage of a transplant experiment mimicking up‐slope seed dispersal for a suite of ecologically diverse populations of yellow monkeyflower (Mimulus guttatus sensu lato) into a high‐elevation common garden during an extreme drought period in the Sierra Nevada mountains, California, USA. We use a demographic approach to quantify fitness and test for selection on life history traits in local versus lower‐elevation populations and in normal versus drought years to test the potential for up‐slope migration and phenotypic selection to alter the distribution of key life history traits in montane environments. We find that lower‐elevation populations tend to outperform local populations, confirming the potential for up‐slope migration. Although selection generally favored some local montane traits, including larger flowers and larger stem size at flowering, drought conditions tended to select for earlier flowering typical of lower‐elevation genotypes. Taken together, this suggests that monkeyflower lineages moving upward in elevation could experience selection for novel trait combinations, particularly under warmer and drier conditions that are predicted to occur with continued climate change.     

Genotypic variation in phenological plasticity: Reciprocal common gardens reveal adaptive responses to warmer springs but not to fall frost

Species faced with rapidly shifting environments must be able to move, adapt, or acclimate in order to survive. One mechanism to meet this challenge is phenotypic plasticity: altering phenotype in response to environmental change. Here, we investigated the magnitude, direction, and consequences of changes in two key phenology traits (fall bud set and spring bud flush) in a widespread riparian tree species, Populus fremontii. Using replicated genotypes from 16 populations from throughout the species’ thermal range, and reciprocal common gardens at hot, warm, and cool sites, we identified four major findings: (a) There are significant genetic (G), environmental (E), and GxE components of variation for both traits across three common gardens; (b) The magnitude of phenotypic plasticity is correlated with provenance climate, where trees from hotter, southern populations exhibited up to four times greater plasticity compared to the northern, frost‐adapted populations; (c) Phenological mismatches are correlated with higher mortality as the transfer distances between provenance and garden increase; and (d) The relationship between plasticity and survival depends not only on the magnitude and direction of environmental transfer, but also on the type of environmental stress (i.e., heat or freezing), and how particular traits have evolved in response to that stress. Trees transferred to warmer climates generally showed small to moderate shifts in an adaptive direction, a hopeful result for climate change. Trees experiencing cooler climates exhibited large, non‐adaptive changes, suggesting smaller transfer distances for assisted migration. This study is especially important as it deconstructs trait responses to environmental cues that are rapidly changing (e.g., temperature and spring onset) and those that are fixed (photoperiod), and that vary across the species’ range. Understanding the magnitude and adaptive nature of phenotypic plasticity of multiple traits responding to multiple environmental cues is key to guiding restoration management decisions as climate continues to change.     

Widespread parallel population adaptation to climate variation across a radiation: implications for adaptation to climate change

Global warming will impact species in a number of ways, and it is important to know the extent to which natural populations can adapt to anthropogenic climate change by natural selection. Parallel microevolution within separate species can demonstrate natural selection, but several studies of homoplasy have not yet revealed examples of widespread parallel evolution in a generic radiation. Taking into account primary phylogeographic divisions, we investigate numerous quantitative traits (size, shape, scalation, colour pattern and hue) in anole radiations from the mountainous Lesser Antillean islands. Adaptation to climatic differences can lead to very pronounced differences between spatially close populations with all studied traits showing some evidence of parallel evolution. Traits from shape, scalation, pattern and hue (particularly the latter) show widespread evolutionary parallels within these species in response to altitudinal climate variation greater than extreme anthropogenic climate change predicted for 2080. This gives strong evidence of the ability to adapt to climate variation by natural selection throughout this radiation. As anoles can evolve very rapidly, it suggests anthropogenic climate change is likely to be less of a conservation threat than other factors, such as habitat loss and invasive species, in this, Lesser Antillean, biodiversity hot spot.     

Future vulnerability mapping based on response to extreme climate events: Dieback thresholds in an endemic California oak

Aim

This study presents a bioclimate modelling approach, using responses to extreme climate events, rather than historical distributional associations, to project future species vulnerability and refugia. We aim to illustrate the compounding effects of groundwater loss and climate on species vulnerability.

Location

California, USA.

Methods

As a case study, we used the 2012–2015 California drought and resulting extensive dieback of blue oak (Quercus douglasii). We used aerial dieback surveys, downscaled climate data and subsurface water change data to develop boosted regression tree models identifying key thresholds associated with dieback throughout the blue oak distribution. We (1) combined observed dieback–climatic threshold relationships with climate futures to anticipate future areas of vulnerability and (2) used satellite‐derived measurements of subsurface water loss in drought/dieback modelling to capture the mediating effect of groundwater on species response to climatic drought.

Results

A model including climate, climate anomalies and subsurface water change explained 46% of the variability in dieback. Precipitation in 2015 and subsurface water change accounted for 62.6% of the modelled probability of dieback. We found an interaction between precipitation and subsurface water in which dieback probability increased with low precipitation and subsurface water loss. The relationship between precipitation and dieback was nonlinear, with 99% of dieback occurring in areas that received <363 mm precipitation. Based on a MIROC_rcp85 future climate scenario, relative to historical conditions, 13% of the blue oak distribution is predicted to experience more frequent years below this precipitation threshold by mid‐century and 81% by end of century.

Main conclusions

As ongoing climate change and extreme events impact ecological processes, the identification of thresholds associated with observed dieback may be combined with climate futures to help identify vulnerable populations and refugia and prioritize climate change‐related conservation efforts.     

Resilience to extreme temperature events: acclimation capacity and body condition of a polymorphic fish in response to thermal stress

Considerable attention has been given to the potential impacts of global climate change on biodiversity. In the present study, we combine understudied themes by examining the ability of a freshwater fish (polymorphic for heat‐sensitivity) to respond to short‐term thermal stress mimicking an extreme temperature event. We simultaneously measured the effect of thermal stress on the body condition of heat‐sensitive and heat‐tolerant forms to evaluate an existing hypothesis regarding the underlying mechanism by which temperature affects the maintenance of genetic variation in this species. Surprisingly, the heat‐sensitive allelic variant increased in body condition equally as much as a heat‐tolerant variant under acute heat stress. More importantly, the heat‐sensitive variant exhibited a significant response to thermal stress, with an upward shift of greater than 2 °C in critical thermal maximum. Our findings suggest a complexity to the relationship between thermal stress and male body condition that may depend on an interaction with other factors such as resource level. Although the evolutionary fate of species with respect to climate change is typically evaluated in terms long‐term adaptive response, short‐term selection events could drastically reduce fitness and reduce evolutionary potential. Our results suggest that heat‐sensitive species may have considerably greater resilience to the short‐term, extreme perturbations to the environment that are expected under climate change. © 2014 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2014, 111 , 504–510.     

Thermal tolerance in the keystone species Daphnia magna—a candidate gene and an outlier analysis approach

Changes in temperature have occurred throughout Earth's history. However, current warming trends exacerbated by human activities impose severe and rapid loss of biodiversity. Although understanding the mechanisms orchestrating organismal response to climate change is important, remarkably few studies document their role in nature. This is because only few systems enable the combined analysis of genetic and plastic responses to environmental change over long time spans. Here, we characterize genetic and plastic responses to temperature increase in the aquatic keystone grazer Daphnia magna combining a candidate gene and an outlier analysis approach. We capitalize on the short generation time of our species, facilitating experimental evolution, and the production of dormant eggs enabling the analysis of long‐term response to environmental change through a resurrection ecology approach. We quantify plasticity in the expression of 35 candidate genes in D. magna populations resurrected from a lake that experienced changes in average temperature over the past century and from experimental populations differing in thermal tolerance isolated from a selection experiment. By measuring expression in multiple genotypes from each of these populations in control and heat treatments, we assess plastic responses to extreme temperature events. By measuring evolutionary changes in gene expression between warm‐ and cold‐adapted populations, we assess evolutionary response to temperature changes. Evolutionary response to temperature increase is also assessed via an outlier analysis using EST‐linked microsatellite loci. This study provides the first insights into the role of plasticity and genetic adaptation in orchestrating adaptive responses to environmental change in D. magna.     

Functional genomic analysis of corals from natural CO2‐seeps reveals core molecular responses involved in acclimatization to ocean acidification

Little is known about the potential for acclimatization or adaptation of corals to ocean acidification and even less about the molecular mechanisms underpinning these processes. Here, we examine global gene expression patterns in corals and their intracellular algal symbionts from two replicate population pairs in Papua New Guinea that have undergone long‐term acclimatization to natural variation in pCO₂. In the coral host, only 61 genes were differentially expressed in response to pCO₂ environment, but the pattern of change was highly consistent between replicate populations, likely reflecting the core expression homeostasis response to ocean acidification. Functional annotations highlight lipid metabolism and a change in the stress response capacity of corals as key parts of this process. Specifically, constitutive downregulation of molecular chaperones was observed, which may impact response to combined climate change‐related stressors. Elevated CO₂ has been hypothesized to benefit photosynthetic organisms but expression changes of in hospite Symbiodinium in response to acidification were greater and less consistent among reef populations. This population‐specific response suggests hosts may need to adapt not only to an acidified environment, but also to changes in their Symbiodinium populations that may not be consistent among environments, adding another challenging dimension to the physiological process of coping with climate change.     

Modelling as a tool for analysing the temperature‐dependent future of the Colorado potato beetle in Europe

A warmer climate may increase the risk of attacks by insect pests on agricultural crops, and questions on how to adapt management practice have created a need for impact models. Phenological models driven by climate data can be used for assessing the potential distribution and voltinism of different insect species, but the quality of the simulations is influenced by a range of uncertainties. In this study, we model the temperature‐dependent activity and development of the Colorado potato beetle, and analyse the influence of uncertainty associated with parameterization of temperature and day length response. We found that the developmental threshold has a major impact on the simulated number of generations per year. Little is known about local adaptations and individual variations, but the use of an upper and a lower developmental threshold gave an indication on the potential variation. The day length conditions triggering diapause are known only for a few populations. We used gridded observed temperature data to estimate local adaptations, hypothesizing that cold autumns can leave a footprint in the population genetics by low survival of individuals not reaching the adult stage before winter. Our study indicated that the potential selection pressure caused by climate conditions varies between European regions. Provided that there is enough genetic variation, a local adaption at the northern distribution limit would reduce the number of unsuccessful initiations and thereby increase the potential for spreading to areas currently not infested. The simulations of the impact model were highly sensitive to biases in climate model data, i.e. systematic deviations in comparison with observed weather, highlightening the need of improved performance of regional climate models. Even a moderate temperature increase could change the voltinism of Leptinotarsa decemlineata in Europe, but knowledge on agricultural practice and strategies for countermeasures is needed to evaluate changes in risk of attacks.     

天山北坡家庭牧场复合系统对极端气候的响应过程

在草原牧区,家庭牧场作为取代游牧制度而产生的新生事物,其对极端气候响应过程的研究尚未见报道.以“极端气候敏感性-影响途径-响应方式”为分析框架,基于问卷调查方法,研究了天山北坡山地草原牧民对极端气候的响应过程.结果表明:1)天山北坡1980-2009年冬季雪灾、秋季旱灾风险趋于增大,家庭牧场草料储备不足、畜种结构经济驱动型增加了对极端气候的敏感性;2)旱灾、雪灾是影响家庭牧场的主要极端气候类型,其作用介质为牲畜和草场;3)自适应与外力适应是牧户响应极端气候的2种主要形式,其中购买草料是最主要的响应策略;4)通过Probit模型估计显示,极端气候认知、家庭特征、资产状况与牧户间适应行为选择有显著的关系.研究认为,家庭牧场对极端气候短期响应的反馈过程主要围绕草、畜2因子展开,基于降水波动的周期性,牧户长期响应形成了家庭牧场生产周期.     

Can animal habitat use patterns influence their vulnerability to extreme climate events? An estuarine sportfish case study

Global climate forecasts predict changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events (ECEs). The capacity for specific habitat patches within a landscape to modulate stressors from extreme climate events, and animal distribution throughout habitat matrices during events, could influence the degree of population level effects following the passage of ECEs. Here, we ask (i) does the intensity of stressors of an ECE vary across a landscape? And (ii) Do habitat use patterns of a mobile species influence their vulnerability to ECEs? Specifically, we measured how extreme cold spells might interact with temporal variability in habitat use to affect populations of a tropical, estuarine‐dependent large‐bodied fish Common Snook, within Everglades National Park estuaries (FL US). We examined temperature variation across the estuary during cold disturbances with different degrees of severity, including an extreme cold spell. Second, we quantified Snook distribution patterns when the passage of ECEs is most likely to occur from 2012 to 2016 using passive acoustic tracking. Our results revealed spatial heterogeneity in the intensity of temperature declines during cold disturbances, with some habitats being consistently 3–5°C colder than others. Surprisingly, Snook distributions during periods of greatest risk to experience an extreme cold event varied among years. During the winters of 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 a greater proportion of Snook occurred in the colder habitats, while the winters of 2012–2013 and 2015–2016 featured more Snook observed in the warmest habitats. This study shows that Snook habitat use patterns could influence vulnerability to extreme cold events, however, whether Snook habitat use increases or decreases their vulnerability to disturbance depends on the year, creating temporally dynamic vulnerability. Faunal global change research should address the spatially explicit nature of extreme climate events and animal habitat use patterns to identify potential mechanisms that may influence population effects following these disturbances.     

Mechanisms of thermal adaptation and evolutionary potential of conspecific populations to changing environments

Heterogeneous and ever‐changing thermal environments drive the evolution of populations and species, especially when extreme conditions increase selection pressure for traits influencing fitness. However, projections of biological diversity under scenarios of climate change rarely consider evolutionary adaptive potential of natural species. In this study, we tested for mechanistic evidence of evolutionary thermal adaptation among ecologically divergent redband trout populations (Oncorhynchus mykiss gairdneri) in cardiorespiratory function, cellular response and genomic variation. In a common garden environment, fish from an extreme desert climate had significantly higher critical thermal maximum (p < .05) and broader optimum thermal window for aerobic scope (>3°C) than fish from cooler montane climate. In addition, the desert population had the highest maximum heart rate during warming (20% greater than montane populations), indicating improved capacity to deliver oxygen to internal tissues. In response to acute heat stress, distinct sets of cardiac genes were induced among ecotypes, which helps to explain the differences in cardiorespiratory function. Candidate genomic markers and genes underlying these physiological adaptations were also pinpointed, such as genes involved in stress response and metabolic activity (hsp40, ldh‐b and camkk2). These markers were developed into a multivariate model that not only accurately predicted critical thermal maxima, but also evolutionary limit of thermal adaptation in these specific redband trout populations relative to the expected limit for the species. This study demonstrates mechanisms and limitations of an aquatic species to evolve under changing environments that can be incorporated into advanced models to predict ecological consequences of climate change for natural organisms.     

Historical and event‐based bioclimatic suitability predicts regional forest vulnerability to compound effects of severe drought and bark beetle infestation

Vulnerability to climate change, and particularly to climate extreme events, is expected to vary across species ranges. Thus, we need tools to standardize the variability in regional climatic legacy and extreme climate across populations and species. Extreme climate events (e.g., droughts) can erode populations close to the limits of species' climatic tolerance. Populations in climatic‐core locations may also become vulnerable because they have developed a greater demand for resources (i.e., water) that cannot be enough satisfied during the periods of scarcity. These mechanisms can become exacerbated in tree populations when combined with antagonistic biotic interactions, such as insect infestation. We used climatic suitability indices derived from Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to standardize the climatic conditions experienced across Pinus edulis populations in southwestern North America, during a historical period (1972–2000) and during an extreme event (2001–2007), when the compound effect of hot drought and bark beetle infestation caused widespread die‐off and mortality. Pinus edulis climatic suitability diminished dramatically during the die‐off period, with remarkable variation between years. P. edulis die‐off occurred mainly not just in sites that experienced lower climatic suitability during the drought but also where climatic suitability was higher during the historical period. The combined effect of historically high climatic suitability and a marked decrease in the climatic suitability during the drought best explained the range‐wide mortality. Lagged effects of climatic suitability loss in previous years and co‐occurrence of Juniperus monosperma also explained P. edulis die‐off in particular years. Overall, the study shows that past climatic legacy, likely determining acclimation, together with competitive interactions plays a major role in responses to extreme drought. It also provides a new approach to standardize the magnitude of climatic variability across populations using SDMs, improving our capacity to predict population's or species' vulnerability to climatic change.     

Evaluating within‐population variability in behavior and demography for the adaptive potential of a dispersal‐limited species to climate change

Multiple pathways exist for species to respond to changing climates. However, responses of dispersal‐limited species will be more strongly tied to ability to adapt within existing populations as rates of environmental change will likely exceed movement rates. Here, we assess adaptive capacity in Plethodon cinereus, a dispersal‐limited woodland salamander. We quantify plasticity in behavior and variation in demography to observed variation in environmental variables over a 5‐year period. We found strong evidence that temperature and rainfall influence P. cinereus surface presence, indicating changes in climate are likely to affect seasonal activity patterns. We also found that warmer summer temperatures reduced individual growth rates into the autumn, which is likely to have negative demographic consequences. Reduced growth rates may delay reproductive maturity and lead to reductions in size‐specific fecundity, potentially reducing population‐level persistence. To better understand within‐population variability in responses, we examined differences between two common color morphs. Previous evidence suggests that the color polymorphism may be linked to physiological differences in heat and moisture tolerance. We found only moderate support for morph‐specific differences for the relationship between individual growth and temperature. Measuring environmental sensitivity to climatic variability is the first step in predicting species' responses to climate change. Our results suggest phenological shifts and changes in growth rates are likely responses under scenarios where further warming occurs, and we discuss possible adaptive strategies for resulting selective pressures.     

Running to stand still: adaptation and the response of plants to rapid climate change

Climate is a potent selective force in natural populations, yet the importance of adaptation in the response of plant species to past climate change has been questioned. As many species are unlikely to migrate fast enough to track the rapidly changing climate of the future, adaptation must play an increasingly important role in their response. In this paper we review recent work that has documented climate‐related genetic diversity within populations or on the microgeographical scale. We then describe studies that have looked at the potential evolutionary responses of plant populations to future climate change. We argue that in fragmented landscapes, rapid climate change has the potential to overwhelm the capacity for adaptation in many plant populations and dramatically alter their genetic composition. The consequences are likely to include unpredictable changes in the presence and abundance of species within communities and a reduction in their ability to resist and recover from further environmental perturbations, such as pest and disease outbreaks and extreme climatic events. Overall, a range‐wide increase in extinction risk is likely to result. We call for further research into understanding the causes and consequences of the maintenance and loss of climate‐related genetic diversity within populations.     

Rapid evolution of phenology during range expansion with recent climate change

Although climate warming is expected to make habitat beyond species’ current cold range edge suitable for future colonization, this new habitat may present an array of biotic or abiotic conditions not experienced within the current range. Species’ ability to shift their range with climate change may therefore depend on how populations evolve in response to such novel environmental conditions. However, due to the recent nature of thus far observed range expansions, the role of rapid adaptation during climate change migration is only beginning to be understood. Here, we evaluated evolution during the recent native range expansion of the annual plant Dittrichia graveolens, which is spreading northward in Europe from the Mediterranean region. We examined genetically based differentiation between core and edge populations in their phenology, a trait that is likely under selection with shorter growing seasons and greater seasonality at northern latitudes. In parallel common garden experiments at range edges in Switzerland and the Netherlands, we grew plants from Dutch, Swiss, and central and southern French populations. Population genetic analysis following RAD‐sequencing of these populations supported the hypothesized central France origins of the Swiss and Dutch range edge populations. We found that in both common gardens, northern plants flowered up to 4 weeks earlier than southern plants. This differentiation in phenology extended from the core of the range to the Netherlands, a region only reached from central France over approximately the last 50 years. Fitness decreased as plants flowered later, supporting the hypothesized benefits of earlier flowering at the range edge. Our results suggest that native range expanding populations can rapidly adapt to novel environmental conditions in the expanded range, potentially promoting their ability to spread.     

Provenance matters: thermal reaction norms for embryo survival among sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka populations

Differences in thermal tolerance during embryonic development in Fraser River sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka were examined among nine populations in a controlled common‐garden incubation experiment. Forcing embryonic development at an extreme temperature (relative to current values) of 16° C, representing a future climate change scenario, significantly reduced survival compared to the more ecologically moderate temperature of 10° C (55% v. 93%). Survival at 14° C was intermediate between the other two temperatures (85%). More importantly, this survival response varied by provenance within and between temperature treatments. Thermal reaction norms showed an interacting response of genotype and environment (temperature), suggesting that populations of O. nerka may have adapted differentially to elevated temperatures during incubation and early development. Moreover, populations that historically experience warmer incubation temperatures at early development displayed a higher tolerance for warm temperatures. In contrast, thermal tolerance does not appear to transcend life stages as adult migration temperatures were not related to embryo thermal tolerance. The intra‐population variation implies potential for thermal tolerance at the species level. The differential inter‐population variation in thermal tolerance that was observed suggests, however, limited adaptive potential to thermal shifts for some populations. This infers that the intergenerational effects of increasing water temperatures may affect populations differentially, and that such thermally mediated adaptive selection may drive population, and therefore species, persistence.     

Climate variation alters the synchrony of host–parasitoid interactions

Observed changes in mean temperature and increased frequency of extreme climate events have already impacted the distributions and phenologies of various organisms, including insects. Although some research has examined how parasitoids will respond to colder temperatures or experimental warming, we know relatively little about how increased variation in temperature and humidity could affect interactions between parasitoids and their hosts. Using a study system consisting of emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis, and its egg parasitoid Oobius agrili, we conducted environmentally controlled laboratory experiments to investigate how increased seasonal climate variation affected the synchrony of host–parasitoid interactions. We hypothesized that increased climate variation would lead to decreases in host and parasitoid survival, host fecundity, and percent parasitism (independent of host density), while also influencing percent diapause in parasitoids. EAB was reared in environmental chambers under four climate variation treatments (standard deviations in temperature of 1.24, 3.00, 3.60, and 4.79°C), while O. agrili experiments were conducted in the same environmental chambers using a 4 × 3 design (four climate variation treatments × 3 EAB egg densities). We found that EAB fecundity was negatively associated with temperature variation and that temperature variation altered the temporal egg laying distribution of EAB. Additionally, even moderate increases in temperature variation affected parasitoid emergence times, while decreasing percent parasitism and survival. Furthermore, percent diapause in parasitoids was positively associated with humidity variation. Our findings indicate that relatively small changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climate events have the potential to phenologically isolate emerging parasitoids from host eggs, which in the absence of alternative hosts could lead to localized extinctions. More broadly, these results indicate how climate change could affect various life history parameters in insects, and have implications for consumer–resource stability and biological control.