An analysis of the possible effects of the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic on grass pollen concentrations in the Midlands, UK

The 2001 grass pollen season in the United Kingdom was notably severe. An epidemic of foot and mouth disease (FMD) occurred in the UK during February and spread through the country during the summer. The media claimed that the control measures of culling infected animals and the restricted movement of stock, led to reduced grazing allowing pastures to flower more than in previous years. This study aimed to examine whether the severity was due only to weather factors or if the control measures also contributed. Three pollen sites from the FMD-affected Midlands region were investigated and compared with two sites from regions unaffected for differences in pollen catches, culling levels and weather. The June pollen catch in the Midlands was particularly high but this pattern also features in areas such as Cambridge in the East that were minimally affected by the epidemic. In most of the catchment areas affected by FMD the quantity of animals culled was less than 10% of the total livestock. In areas where culling was concentrated we can assume that there would have been some localized affect on the pollen levels. The results show that the main influencing variable on the 2001 grass pollen counts in the Midlands was the weather and that culling due to the foot and mouth epidemic did not exert an important influence at the regional level.     

An analysis of the possible effects of the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic on grass pollen concentrations in the Midlands,UK

The 2001 grass pollen season in the United Kingdom was notably severe. An epidemic of foot and mouth disease (FMD) occurred in the UK during February and spread through the country during the summer. The media claimed that the control measures of culling infected animals and the restricted movement of stock, led to reduced grazing allowing pastures to flower more than in previous years. This study aimed to examine whether the severity was due only to weather factors or if the control measures also contributed. Three pollen sites from the FMD-affected Midlands region were investigated and compared with two sites from regions unaffected for differences in pollen catches, culling levels and weather. The June pollen catch in the Midlands was particularly high but this pattern also features in areas such as Cambridge in the East that were minimally affected by the epidemic. In most of the catchment areas affected by FMD the quantity of animals culled was less than 10% of the total livestock. In areas where culling was concentrated we can assume that there would have been some localized affect on the pollen levels. The results show that the main influencing variable on the 2001 grass pollen counts in the Midlands was the weather and that culling due to the foot and mouth epidemic did not exert an important influence at the regional level.     

Transmission parameters of the 2001 foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain

Despite intensive ongoing research, key aspects of the spatial-temporal evolution of the 2001 foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in Great Britain (GB) remain unexplained. Here we develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for estimating epidemiological parameters of the 2001 outbreak for a range of simple transmission models. We make the simplifying assumption that infectious farms were completely observed in 2001, equivalent to assuming that farms that were proactively culled but not diagnosed with FMD were not infectious, even if some were infected. We estimate how transmission parameters varied through time, highlighting the impact of the control measures on the progression of the epidemic. We demonstrate statistically significant evidence for assortative contact patterns between animals of the same species. Predictive risk maps of the transmission potential in different geographic areas of GB are presented for the fitted models.     

The Effect of the Post 2001 Reforms on FMD Risks of the International Live Animal Trade

The 2001 UK foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic marked a change in global FMD management, focusing less on trade isolation than on biosecurity within countries where FMD is endemic. Post 2001 policy calls for the isolation of disease-free zones in FMD-endemic countries, while increasing the opportunities for trade. The impact of the change on disease risk has yet to be tested. In this paper, we estimate an empirical model of disease risk that tests for the impact of trade volumes before and after 2001, controlling for biosecurity measures. In the pre 2001 regime, we find that poor biosecurity was associated with the probability of reporting an outbreak. In the post 2001 regime, the risks changed, with trade being a much greater source of risk. We discuss the trade-off between trade restrictions and biosecurity measures in the management of FMD disease risks.     

Animal disease and human trauma: the psychosocial implications of the 2001 UK foot and mouth disease disaster

The 2001 UK foot and mouth disease (FMD) crisis is commonly understood to have been a nonhuman animal problem, an economic industrial crisis that was resolved after eradication. By using a different lens, a longitudinal ethnographic study of the health and social consequences of the epidemic, the research reported here indicates that 2001 was a human tragedy as well as an animal one. In a diary-based study, it can be seen that life after the FMD crisis was accompanied by distress, feelings of bereavement, fear of a new disaster, loss of trust in authority and systems of control, and the undermining of the value of local knowledge. Diverse groups experienced distress well beyond the farming community. Such distress remained largely invisible to the range of “official” inquiries into the disaster. That an FMD epidemic of the scale of 2001 could happen again in a developed country is a deeply worrying prospect, but it is to be hoped that contingency plans are evolving along with enhanced understanding of the human, animal, and financial cost.     

The impact of local heterogeneity on alternative control strategies for foot-and-mouth disease

The 2001 epidemic of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the UK resulted in the death of nearly 10 million livestock at a cost that was estimated to be up to 8 billion pounds. Owing to the controversy surrounding the epidemic, the question of whether or not alternative policies would have resulted in significantly better control of the epidemic remains of great interest. A hexagonal lattice simulation of FMD in Cumbria is used to address the central question of whether or not better use could have been made of expert knowledge of FMD transmission to target pre-emptive culling, by assuming that the premises at greatest risk of becoming infected can be targeted for culling. The 2000 UK census and the epidemiological database collected during the epidemic are used to describe key characteristics of disease transmission, and the model is fit to the epidemic time-series. Under the assumptions of the model, the parameters that best fit the epidemic in Cumbria indicate that a policy based on expert knowledge would have exacerbated the epidemic compared with the policy as implemented. However, targeting more distant, high-risk farms could be more valuable under different epidemic conditions, notably, if risk factors of sufficient magnitude could be identified to aid in prioritizing vaccination or culling of farms at high risk of becoming infected.     

The influence of the hot and dry summer 2003 on the pollen season in Switzerland

A record-breaking heat wave affected the European continent in summer 2003. In Switzerland, the temperature in June, July and August exceeded the 1961–1990 mean by about 5 °C. These extreme temperatures had significant effects on the pollen production and on the airborne pollen loads. Especially affected was the grass pollen season, which started 1–2 weeks earlier than in the mean. During May and the first part of June the grass pollen production and dispersion was favoured by the warm and dry weather and many days with high pollen concentrations were registered. First water deficiencies occurred in June so that the grasses ceased to grow. The grass pollen season ended 7–33 days earlier than normal. For many of our stations of the Swiss pollen network this had never occurred as early as in 2003. The other herbaceous plants were not affected as much as the grasses. We measured very high Chenopodium and Plantago pollen concentrations, about normal concentrations of Urtica and Rumex and slightly lower Artemisia pollen concentrations than normal. The summer 2003 was exceptional and its reoccurrence is at the moment statistically extremely unlikely. But models of climatologists show that in the future, climate variations will increase and that in the period 2071–2100 about every second summer could be as warm or warmer and as dry or dryer than 2003.     

Temporal and geographical variations in grass pollen seasons in areas of west0ern Europe: an analysis of season dates at sites of the European pollen information system

Geographical and temporal variations in the start dates of grass pollen seasons are described for selected sites of the European Pollen Information Service. Daily average grass pollen counts are derived from Network sites in Finland, the Netherlands, Denmark, United Kingdom, Austria, Italy and Spain, giving a broad longitudinal transect over Western Europe. The study is part of a larger project that also examines annual and regional variations in the severity, timing of the peak and duration of the grass pollen seasons. For several sites, data are available for over twenty years enabling long term trends to be discerned. The analyses show notable contrasts in the progression of the seasons annually with differing lag times occurring between southern and northern sites in various years depending on the weather conditions. The patterns identified provide some insight into geographical differences and temporal trends in the incidence of pollinosis. The paper discusses the main difficulties involved in this type of analysis and notes possibilities for using data from the European Pollen Information service to construct pan European predictive models for pollen seasons. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The role of pre-emptive culling in the control of foot-and-mouth disease

The 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic was controlled by culling of infectious premises and pre-emptive culling intended to limit the spread of disease. Of the control strategies adopted, routine culling of farms that were contiguous to infected premises caused the most controversy. Here we perform a retrospective analysis of the culling of contiguous premises as performed in 2001 and a simulation study of the effects of this policy on reducing the number of farms affected by disease. Our simulation results support previous studies and show that a national policy of contiguous premises (CPs) culling leads to fewer farms losing livestock. The optimal national policy for controlling the 2001 epidemic is found to be the targeting of all contiguous premises, whereas for localized outbreaks in high animal density regions, more extensive fixed radius ring culling is optimal. Analysis of the 2001 data suggests that the lowest-risk CPs were generally prioritized for culling, however, even in this case, the policy is predicted to be effective. A sensitivity analysis and the development of a spatially heterogeneous policy show that the optimal culling level depends upon the basic reproductive ratio of the infection and the width of the dispersal kernel. These analyses highlight an important and probably quite general result: optimal control is highly dependent upon the distance over which the pathogen can be transmitted, the transmission rate of infection and local demography where the disease is introduced.     

Examining high magnitude grass pollen episodes at Worcester,United Kingdom,using back-trajectory analysis

Trajectory analysis is a valuable tool that has been used before in aerobiological studies, to investigate the movement of airborne pollen. This study has employed back-trajectories to examine the four highest grass pollen episodes at Worcester, during the 2001 grass pollen season. The results have shown that the highest grass pollen counts of the 2001 season were reached when air masses arrived from a westerly direction. Back-trajectory analysis has a limited value to forecasters because the method is retrospective and cannot be employed directly for forecasting. However, when used in conjunction with meteorological data this technique can be used to examine high magnitude events in order to identify conditions that lead to high pollen counts.     

Predicting the grass pollen count from meteorological data with regard to estimating the severity of hayfever symptoms in Melbourne (Australia)

In Melbourne, Australia, grass pollen is the predominant cause of hayfever in late spring and summer. The grass pollen season has been monitored in Melbourne, using a Burkard spore trap, for 13 years (1975–1981, 1985 and 1991–1997). Total counts for grass pollen were highly variable from one season to the next (approximately 1000 to >8000 grains/m³). The daily grass pollen counts also showed a high variability (0 to approximately 400 grains/m³). In this study, the grass pollen counts of the 13 years (12 grass pollen seasons, extending from October to January) have been compared with meteorological data in order to identify the conditions that can determine the daily amounts of grass pollen in the air. It was found that the seasonal total of grass pollen was directly correlated with the rainfall sum of the preceding 12 months (1 September–31 August): seasonal total of grass pollen (counts/m³)=18.161 × rainfall sum of the preceding 12 months (mm) −8541.5 (r _s=0.74,P<0.005,n=12). The daily amounts of grass pollen in the air were positively correlated with the corresponding daily average ambient temperatures (P<0.001). The daily amount of grass pollen which was to be expected with a certain daily average temperature was linked to the seasonal total of grass pollen: in years with high total grass pollen counts, a lower daily average temperature was required for a high daily pollen count than in years with low total grass pollen counts. As the concentration of airborne grass pollen determines the severity of hayfever in sensitive patients, an estimation of daily grass pollen counts can provide an indication of potential pollinosis symptoms. We compared daily grass pollen counts with the reported symptomatic responses of hayfever sufferers in November 1985 and found that hayfever symptoms were significantly correlated to the grass pollen counts (P<0.001 for nasal,P<0.005 for eye symptoms). Thus, a combination of meteorological information (i.e. rainfall and temperature) allows for an estimation of the potential daily pollinosis symptoms during the grass pollen season. Here we propose a symptom estimation chart, allowing a quick prediction of eye and nasal symptoms that are likely to occur as a result of variations in meteorological conditions, thus enabling both physicians and patients to take appropriate avoidance measures or therapy.     

Seasonal variation in surface soil pollen taxa over 12 months in three English mature woodlands

This study aimed to determine whether or not a seasonal, or even monthly, pattern of pollen accumulation could be found in surface soil. Three mature woodlands in the English Midlands were selected and soil samples were taken from the same area, each month, for 12 months. Pollen types were recorded and compared across the woodlands. Pollen condition was assessed for seasonal differences in Bannam’s woodland. Two of the woodlands (Windmill Naps and Wirehill) had pollen assemblages that were dominated heavily by Quercus pollen but the third (Bannam’s) was more balanced. Each pollen type found was present in almost every month and winter was, for some types, a time of increased pollen. No clear, consistent patterns were visible in the results across the woodlands or for each pollen type. Although some pollen types showed an increase in levels during their flowering season, this was only consistent across all three woodlands for grasses (Poaceae). The condition of the pollen grains remained similar across the 12 months with a small (up to 12%) increase in fresh pollen in May. This study concludes that for damp woodland soil in the English Midlands, a clear, seasonal or monthly pattern cannot be determined.     

Parallels,differences and lessons: a comparison of the management of foot-and-mouth disease and COVID-19 using UK 2001/2020 as points of reference

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is an extremely infectious viral infection of cloven-hoofed animals which is highly challenging to control and can give rise to national animal health crises, especially if there is a lack of pre-existing immunity due to the emergence of new strains or following incursions into disease-free regions. The 2001 FMD epidemic in the UK was on a scale that initially overwhelmed the national veterinary services and was eventually controlled by livestock lockdown and slaughter on an unprecedented scale. In 2020, the rapid emergence of COVID-19 has led to a human pandemic unparalleled in living memory. The enormous logistics of multi-agency control efforts for COVID-19 are reminiscent of the 2001 FMD epidemic in the UK, as are the use of movement restrictions, not normally a feature of human disease control. The UK experience is internationally relevant as few countries have experienced national epidemic crises for both diseases. In this review, we reflect on the experiences and lessons learnt from UK and international responses to FMD and COVID-19 with respect to their management, including the challenge of preclinical viral transmission, threat awareness, early detection, different interpretations of scientific information, lockdown, biosecurity behaviour change, shortage of testing capacity and the choices for eradication versus living with infection. A major lesson is that the similarity of issues and critical resources needed to manage large-scale outbreaks demonstrates that there is benefit to a ‘One Health’ approach to preparedness, with potential for greater cooperation in planning and the consideration of shared critical resources.     

Epidemiological studies on foot and mouth disease and paratuberculosis in small ruminants in Tafelah and Ma’an,Jordan

A cross-sectional study was performed to investigate some epidemiological aspects of foot and mouth disease (FMD) and paratuberculosis in small ruminant flocks located in two governorates in Southern Jordan. A total of 320 sheep and 300 goats from 38 and 24, sheep and goat flocks, respectively, were randomly sampled and assayed for presence of antibodies against FMD virus and Mycobacterium paratuberculosis using commercially available kits. A structured pre-tested questionnaire was administered to collect information on flocks’ health and management. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed to investigate risk factors associated with seropositivity to the two studied diseases. The individual prevalence of FMD and paratuberculosis in sheep was 10.4 and 22.1%, respectively. The sheep flock level seroprevalence for FMD and paratuberculosis was 44.7 and 50%, respectively. In goats, the individual prevalence of FMD and paratuberculosis was 6.3 and 18.1%, respectively. The goat flock level seroprevalence for FMD and paratuberculosis was 33.3 and 45.8%, respectively. The logistic regression model revealed mixed farming as a common risk factor for both FMD and paratuberculosis. Grazing in communal areas and addition of new animals were identified as risk factors for paratuberculosis.     

The epidemiology of potato blight in the East Midlands 1923–74

Examination of the East Midlands records of potato blight epidemics and the meteorological data on critical 90 % relative humidity infection periods for the years 1923–74 indicates the importance of the amount of inoculum carried over from one season to the next in influencing the rapidity of progress of the disease and the date of destruction of the haulm. The success of forecasting outbreaks based on 90% r.h. periods is reviewed. The importance of taking into account both amount of inoculum and weather conditions in devising a disease control programme is discussed. It is concluded that the succession of seasons since 1968 without a major potato blight epidemic was due mainly to a combination of low carry-over of infection and sub-optimal weather conditions for the development of the disease and that the current control measures have not yet been subjected to a severe test.     

Forecasting the onset of the grass pollen season in Melbourne (Australia)

In Melbourne, a southern hemisphere city with a cool temperate climate, the grass pollen season has been monitored using a Burkard spore trap for 12 years (11 pollen seasons, which extend from October through January). The onset of the grass pollen season (OGPS) has been defined in various ways using both arbitrary cumulative scores (Sum 75, Sum 100) and percentages (10% Pollen Fly). OGPS, based on the forecast model of pollen season devised by Lejoly-Gabriel (Acta Geogr. Lovan., 13 (1978) 1–260) has been most widely used in efforts to forecast the beginning of the pollen season. OGPS occurred in Melbourne between 20 October to 24 November (average 6 November), a difference of 35 days. Duration of the pollen season ranged from 46 to 81 days, with a mean of 55 days, one of the longest reported. The relationships between onset and various weather parameters for July have enabled us to modify a model, using linear regression analysis, to predict onset. The prediction model is based on a negative correlation between date of onset and the sum of rainfall for July (a winter month). The error of prediction (Ep) is 24% and predicted day of OGPS was precisely predicted on 2 occasions, and on others with a range of accuracy of 3 to 14 days.     

Temporal and spatial distribution of atmospheric Poaceae pollen in Catalonia (NE Spain) in 1996–2001

A preliminary study to compare Poaceae pollen data and to determine possible differences in pollen productivity and/or seasonality was performed at six locations in Catalonia (Spain): Barcelona, Bellaterra, Girona, Lleida, Manresa and Tarragona over a 6-year period (1996–2001). In the study area, Poaceae pollen grains are an important cause of respiratory allergies. Being present in the atmosphere all year round, the grass pollen concentrations are especially significant between May and August. The absolute peak occurs in June, except in Lleida where the peak comes earlier, possibly due to the early flowering of particular steppe species. Even if there are differences between different years, Girona and Lleida (inland locations) usually present the highest annual grass pollen index with, on average, 2177 pollen grains per year. Barcelona and Tarragona (the coastal sites) show the lowest levels, with around 1140 grass pollen grains per year. The respective local climates are very different, and pollen grains may originate in different grass species. A decreasing trend in the Poaceae annual pollen index was found over the period of the present study.     

口蹄疫病毒与宿主细胞的相互作用研究进展

口蹄疫病毒（FMDV）导致了偶蹄动物口蹄疫的发生,它是一类有着自身特点的RNA病毒。首先,FMDV衣壳蛋白VP1识别结合宿主细胞膜上的整联蛋白等受体,以内吞的方式进入细胞,利用宿主细胞成分完成病毒蛋白的合成。这些新合成的L^pro、2C和3C^pro等病毒致病因子进一步抑制宿主基因的转录和翻译,诱导细胞凋亡和白噬,并抑制干扰素介导的一系列先天性和获得性免疫反应。宿主则在病毒侵染细胞的初期,利用病毒识别受体等来识别病毒并诱导合成干扰素等细胞因子,介导多种免疫反应以清除病毒。病毒和宿主两者在持续的利用和较量中完成疾病的发生和痊愈等。其次,不断发现的病毒受体、结合基序、致病因子及宿主细胞的多种免疫调节因子将成为相关领域新的研究内容。综上,开发高效安全疫苗、增强自身免疫力及利用RNAi直接抑制病毒RNA等便成为现代FMDV防治的主要内容。     

Regional and seasonal variation in airborne grass pollen levels between cities of Australia and New Zealand

Although grass pollen is widely regarded as the major outdoor aeroallergen source in Australia and New Zealand (NZ), no assemblage of airborne pollen data for the region has been previously compiled. Grass pollen count data collected at 14 urban sites in Australia and NZ over periods ranging from 1 to 17 years were acquired, assembled and compared, revealing considerable spatiotemporal variability. Although direct comparison between these data is problematic due to methodological differences between monitoring sites, the following patterns are apparent. Grass pollen seasons tended to have more than one peak from tropics to latitudes of 37°S and single peaks at sites south of this latitude. A longer grass pollen season was therefore found at sites below 37°S, driven by later seasonal end dates for grass growth and flowering. Daily pollen counts increased with latitude; subtropical regions had seasons of both high intensity and long duration. At higher latitude sites, the single springtime grass pollen peak is potentially due to a cooler growing season and a predominance of pollen from C₃ grasses. The multiple peaks at lower latitude sites may be due to a warmer season and the predominance of pollen from C₄ grasses. Prevalence and duration of seasonal allergies may reflect the differing pollen seasons across Australia and NZ. It must be emphasized that these findings are tentative due to limitations in the available data, reinforcing the need to implement standardized pollen-monitoring methods across Australasia. Furthermore, spatiotemporal differences in grass pollen counts indicate that local, current, standardized pollen monitoring would assist with the management of pollen allergen exposure for patients at risk of allergic rhinitis and asthma.     

New biomolecular tools for aerobiological monitoring: Identification of major allergenic Poaceae species through fast real‐time PCR

Grasses (Poaceae) are very common plants, which are widespread in all environments and urban areas. Despite their economical importance, they can represent a problem to humans due to their abundant production of allergenic pollen. Detailed information about the pollen season for these species is needed in order to plan adequate therapies and to warn allergic people about the risks they take in certain areas at certain moments. Moreover, precise identification of the causative species and their allergens is necessary when the patient is treated with allergen‐specific immunotherapy. The intrafamily morphological similarity of grass pollen grains makes it impossible to distinguish which particular species is present in the atmosphere at a given moment. This study aimed at developing new biomolecular tools to analyze aerobiological samples and identifying major allergenic Poaceae taxa at subfamily or species level, exploiting fast real‐time PCR. Protocols were tested for DNA extraction from pollen sampled with volumetric and gravimetric methods. A fragment of the matK plastidial gene was amplified and sequenced in Poaceae species known to have high allergological impact. Species‐ and subfamily‐specific primer–probe systems were designed and tested in fast real‐time PCRs to evaluate the presence of these taxa in aerobiological pollen samples. Species‐specific systems were obtained for four of five studied species. A primer–probe set was also proposed for the detection of Pooideae (a grass subfamily that includes also major cereal grains) in aerobiological samples, as this subfamily includes species carrying both grass allergens from groups 1 and 5. These, among the 11 groups in which grass pollen allergens are classified, are considered responsible for the most frequent and severe symptoms.