Deforestation and Reforestation of Latin America and the Caribbean (2001–2010)

Forest cover change directly affects biodiversity, the global carbon budget, and ecosystem function. Within Latin American and the Caribbean region (LAC), many studies have documented extensive deforestation, but there are also many local studies reporting forest recovery. These contrasting dynamics have been largely attributed to demographic and socio‐economic change. For example, local population change due to migration can stimulate forest recovery, while the increasing global demand for food can drive agriculture expansion. However, as no analysis has simultaneously evaluated deforestation and reforestation from the municipal to continental scale, we lack a comprehensive assessment of the spatial distribution of these processes. We overcame this limitation by producing wall‐to‐wall, annual maps of change in woody vegetation and other land‐cover classes between 2001 and 2010 for each of the 16,050 municipalities in LAC, and we used nonparametric Random Forest regression analyses to determine which environmental or population variables best explained the variation in woody vegetation change. Woody vegetation change was dominated by deforestation (?541,835 km²), particularly in the moist forest, dry forest, and savannas/shrublands biomes in South America. Extensive areas also recovered woody vegetation (+362,430 km²), particularly in regions too dry or too steep for modern agriculture. Deforestation in moist forests tended to occur in lowland areas with low population density, but woody cover change was not related to municipality‐scale population change. These results emphasize the importance of quantitating deforestation and reforestation at multiple spatial scales and linking these changes with global drivers such as the global demand for food.     

Spatial–temporal analysis of species range expansion: the case of the mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae

Aim The spatial extent of western Canada’s current epidemic of mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins (Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae), is increasing. The roles of the various dispersal processes acting as drivers of range expansion are poorly understood for most species. The aim of this paper is to characterize the movement patterns of the mountain pine beetle in areas where range expansion is occurring, in order to describe the fine‐scale spatial dynamics of processes associated with mountain pine beetle range expansion. Location Three regions of Canada’s Rocky Mountains: Kicking Horse Pass, Yellowhead Pass and Pine Pass. Methods Data on locations of mountain pine beetle‐attacked trees of predominantly lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) were obtained from annual fixed‐wing aircraft surveys of forest health and helicopter‐based GPS surveys of mountain pine beetle‐damaged areas in British Columbia and Alberta. The annual (1999–2005) spatial extents of outbreak ranges were delineated from these data. Spatial analysis was conducted using the spatial–temporal analysis of moving polygons (STAMP), a recently developed pattern‐based approach. Results We found that distant dispersal patterns (spot infestations) were most often associated with marginal increases in the areal size of mountain pine beetle range polygons. When the mountain pine beetle range size increased rapidly relative to the years examined, local dispersal patterns (adjacent infestation) were more common. In Pine Pass, long‐range dispersal (> 2 km) markedly extended the north‐east border of the mountain pine beetle range. In Yellowhead Pass and Kicking Horse Pass, the extension of the range occurred incrementally via ground‐based spread. Main conclusions Dispersal of mountain pine beetle varies with geography as well as with host and beetle population dynamics. Although colonization is mediated by habitat connectivity, during periods of low overall habitat expansion, dispersal to new distant locations is common, whereas during periods of rapid invasion, locally connected spread is the dominant mode of dispersal. The propensity for long‐range transport to establish new beetle populations, and thus to be considered a driver of range expansion, is likely to be determined by regional weather patterns, and influenced by local topography. We conclude that STAMP appears to be a useful approach for examining changes in biogeograpical ranges, with the potential to reveal both fine‐ and large‐scale patterns.     

Tree dynamics and co‐existence in the montane–sub‐alpine ecotone: the role of different light‐induced strategies

Questions: Is light availability the main factor driving forest dynamics in Pyrenean sub‐alpine forests? Do pines and firs differ in growth, mortality and morphological response to low light availability? Can differences in shade tolerance affect predictions of future biome changes in Pyrenean sub‐alpine forests in the absence of thermal limitation? Location: Montane–sub‐alpine ecotones of the Eastern Pyrenees (NE Spain). Methods: We evaluated morphological plasticity, survival and growth response of saplings of Scots pine, mountain pine and silver fir to light availability in a mixed forest ecotone. For each species, we selected 100 living and 50 dead saplings and measured size, crown morphology and light availability. A wood disk at root collar was then removed for every sapling, and models relating growth and mortality to light were obtained. Results: Fir had the lowest mortality rate (<0.1) for any given light condition. Pines had comparable responses to light availability, although in deep shade Scots pine risked higher mortality (0.35) than mountain pine (0.19). Pines and fir developed opposing strategies to light deprivation: fir employed a conservative strategy based on sacrificing height growth, whereas pines enhanced height growth to escape from shade, but at the expense of higher mortality risk. Scots pine showed higher plasticity than mountain pine for all architectural and morphological traits analysed, having higher adaptive capacity to a changing environment. Conclusions: Our results support the prediction of future biome changes in Pyrenean sub‐alpine forests as silver fir and Scots pine may find appropriate conditions for colonizing mountain pine‐dominated stands due to land‐use change‐related forest densification and climate warming‐related temperature increases, respectively.     

Large‐scale impact of climate change vs. land‐use change on future biome shifts in Latin America

Climate change and land‐use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental‐scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio‐economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5–6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land‐use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land‐use expansion is halted by the mid‐century. We suggest that constraining land‐use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate‐change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio‐economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change.     

Quercus and Pinus cover are determined by landscape structure and dynamics in peri-urban Mediterranean forest patches

Successional dynamics in Mediterranean forests have been modulated by anthropogenic disturbances during thousands of years, especially in areas densely populated since ancient times. Our objective is to determine whether pine tree cover (early-successional species) and oak tree cover (late-successional species), used as a surrogate of successional stage of peri-urban fragmented forests in the Vallès lowlands (Catalonia, NE, Spain), are primarily determined by (1) climate and topography; (2) anthropogenic disturbances; (3) patch structure; or (4) patch dynamics from 1956 to 1993. Quercus spp. and Pinus spp. tree cover were separately recorded on 252 randomly selected plots of 100 m², within forest patches ranging in size from 0.25 to 218 ha. Multiple linear regressions indicated that forest patch history is the most important variable determining oak and pine tree cover: new forest patches showed higher pine and lower oak tree cover than recently split patches (i.e. those that became fragmented from large forest areas after 1956). Patches already existing as such in 1956 (pre-existent patches) showed higher pine cover than recently split patches. Oak cover increased and pine cover decreased with increasing forest connectivity of the patch. Finally, highly frequented forests were related to high cover of pines. Climatic and topographic variables were not significant. We conclude that pine and oak cover in these peri-urban forests are mainly determined by recent patch dynamics, but also by the spatial pattern of patches. However, human-induced disturbance can modulate this as there is some evidence for pine being associated with a high human frequentation.     

Winners and losers: How the elevational range of breeding birds on Alps has varied over the past four decades due to climate and habitat changes

Climate warming and habitat transformation are widely recognized as worrying threatening factors. Understanding the individual contribution of these two factors to the change of species distribution could be very important in order to effectively counteract the species range contraction, especially in mountains, where alpine species are strongly limited in finding new areas to be colonized at higher elevations. We proposed a method to disentangle the effects of the two drivers of range change for breeding birds in Italian Alps, in the case of co‐occurring climate warming and shrub and forest encroachment. For each species, from 1982 to 2017, we related the estimated yearly elevational distribution of birds to the correspondent overall average of the daily minimum temperatures during the breeding season and the estimated amount of shrubs and forest cover. Using a hierarchical partitioning approach, we assessed the net contribution (i.e., without the shared effect) of each driver. Both temperature and shrub and forest cover showed a positive trend along the time series and resulted the most likely causes of the significant elevational displacement for 21 of the 29 investigated birds. While shrub and forest cover was found to be an important driver of the expansion of forest bird range toward higher elevations, the effect of temperature on favouring the colonization of previously climatically unsuitable forests at higher elevations was not negligible. Shrub and forest expansion resulted the main driver of the range contraction for edge and open habitat species, which suffered a distribution shrinkage at their lower elevational boundary. In light of climate warming, these results highlighted how the net range loss for edge and open habitat species, caused by shrub and forest encroachment consequent to land abandonment, should be counteracted by implementing proper conservation management strategies and promoting sustainable economic activities in rangeland areas.     

Breach of the northern Rocky Mountain geoclimatic barrier: initiation of range expansion by the mountain pine beetle

Aim Our aim is to examine the historical breach of the geoclimatic barrier of the Rocky Mountains by the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins). This recent range expansion from west of the North American continental divide into the eastern boreal forest threatens to provide a conduit to naïve pine hosts in eastern North America. We examine the initial expansion events and determine potential mechanism(s) of spread by comparing spread patterns in consecutive years to various dispersal hypotheses such as: (1) meso‐scale atmospheric dispersal of insects from source populations south‐west of the Rocky Mountains in British Columbia (i.e. their historical range), (2) anthropogenic transport of infested plant material, and (3) spread of insect populations across adjacent stands via corridors of suitable habitat. Location British Columbia, Canada. Methods We explore potential mechanism(s) of invasion of the mountain pine beetle using spatial point process models for the initial 3 years of landscape‐level data collection, 2004–2006. Specifically, we examine observed patterns of infestation relative to covariates reflecting various dispersal hypotheses. We select the most parsimonious models for each of the initial 3 years of invasion using information criteria statistics. Results The initial range expansion and invasion of the beetle was characterized by aerial deposition along a strong north‐west to south‐east gradient, with additional aerial deposition and localized dispersal from persisting populations in following years. Main conclusions Following deposition of a wave front of mountain pine beetles parallel to the Rocky Mountains via meso‐scale atmospheric dispersal, the areas of highest intensity of infestations advanced up to 25 km north‐east towards jack pine (Pinus banksiana) habitat in a single year. There appeared to be no association between putative anthropogenic movement of infested materials and initial range expansion of the mountain pine beetle across the continental divide.     

Land use changes and conservation threats in the eastern Selous–Niassa wildlife corridor,Nachingwea, Tanzania

Selous–Niassa miombo woodland ecosystem has been and continues to face conservation threats. Understanding of changes happening in such ecosystem overtime is important for establishing management baseline data. This study identified land use changes, socio‐economic factors and conservation threats to the Selous–Niassa wildlife corridor across Nachingwea district, Tanzania. Landsat images of 1978, 1993 and 2000 were used to assess land use changes. Household survey was conducted to obtain socio‐economic data; logistic regression model was used to analyse the data. In 15 years (1978–1993) cultivated land only increased by 131% while forestlands decreased by 8.7%. In 12 years (1993–2005) cultivated land increased by 65.6% while forestland decreased by 10.7%. Land cover change per year has been found 0.54% relatively low compared to national land cover change of 45%per year. Land tenure, shifting cultivation and crops prices were major factors influencing land use changes while wildfires, farm encroachment and illegal timber harvesting were major conservation threats. Basing on the results, it was recommended that there is a need for a government to introduce community‐based natural resource management plans to improve natural resource utilization and reduce human stress to the corridor.     

Climate warming feedback from mountain birch forest expansion: reduced albedo dominates carbon uptake

Expanding high‐elevation and high‐latitude forest has contrasting climate feedbacks through carbon sequestration (cooling) and reduced surface reflectance (warming), which are yet poorly quantified. Here, we present an empirically based projection of mountain birch forest expansion in south‐central Norway under climate change and absence of land use. Climate effects of carbon sequestration and albedo change are compared using four emission metrics. Forest expansion was modeled for a projected 2.6 °C increase in summer temperature in 2100, with associated reduced snow cover. We find that the current (year 2000) forest line of the region is circa 100 m lower than its climatic potential due to land‐use history. In the future scenarios, forest cover increased from 12% to 27% between 2000 and 2100, resulting in a 59% increase in biomass carbon storage and an albedo change from 0.46 to 0.30. Forest expansion in 2100 was behind its climatic potential, forest migration rates being the primary limiting factor. In 2100, the warming caused by lower albedo from expanding forest was 10 to 17 times stronger than the cooling effect from carbon sequestration for all emission metrics considered. Reduced snow cover further exacerbated the net warming feedback. The warming effect is considerably stronger than previously reported for boreal forest cover, because of the typically low biomass density in mountain forests and the large changes in albedo of snow‐covered tundra areas. The positive climate feedback of high‐latitude and high‐elevation expanding forests with seasonal snow cover exceeds those of afforestation at lower elevation, and calls for further attention of both modelers and empiricists. The inclusion and upscaling of these climate feedbacks from mountain forests into global models is warranted to assess the potential global impacts.     

Do exotic pine plantations favour the spread of invasive herbivorous mammals in Patagonia?

Changes in land use patterns and vegetation can trigger ecological change in occupancy and community composition. Among the potential ecological consequences of land use change is altered susceptibility to occupancy by invasive species. We investigated the responses of three introduced mammals (red deer, Cervus elaphus; wild boar, Sus scrofa; and European hare, Lepus europaeus) to replacement of native vegetation by exotic pine plantations in the Patagonian forest‐steppe ecotone using camera‐trap surveys (8633 trap‐days). We used logistic regression models to relate species presence with habitat variables at stand and landscape scales. Red deer and wild boar used pine plantations significantly more frequently than native vegetation. In contrast, occurrence of European hares did not differ between pine plantations and native vegetation, although hares were recorded more frequently in firebreaks than in plantations or native vegetation. Presence of red deer and wild boar was positively associated with cover of pine plantations at the landscape scale, and negatively associated with mid‐storey cover and diversity at the stand scale. European hares preferred sites with low arboreal and mid‐storey cover. Our results suggest that pine plantations promote increased abundances of invasive species whose original distributions are associated with woodlands (red deer and wild boar), and could act as source or pathways for invasive species to new areas.     

Quantifying the biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of changes in forest and agricultural land in South and Southeast Asia

South and Southeast Asia (SSEA) has been a hotspot for land use and land cover change (LULCC) in the past few decades. The identification and quantification of the drivers of LULCC are crucial for improving our understanding of LULCC trends. So far, the biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of forest change have not been quantified at the regional scale, particularly for SSEA. In this study, we quantify the biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of forest change on a country‐by‐country basis in SSEA using an integrated quantitative methodology, which systematically accounts for previously published driver information and regional datasets. We synthesize more than 200 publications to identify the drivers of the forest change at different spatial scales in SSEA. Subsequently, we collect spatially explicit proxy data to represent the identified drivers. We quantify the dynamics of forest and agricultural land from 1992 to 2015 using the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) land cover data developed by the European Space Agency (ESA). A geographically weighted regression method is employed to quantify the spatially heterogeneous drivers of forest change. Our results show that socioeconomic drivers are more important than biophysical drivers for the conversion of forest to agricultural land in South Asia and maritime Southeast Asia. In contrast, biophysical drivers are more important than socioeconomic drivers for the conversion of agricultural land to forest in maritime Southeast Asia and less important in South Asia. Both biophysical and socioeconomic drivers contribute approximately equally to both changes in the mainland Southeast Asia region. By quantifying the dynamics of forest and agricultural land and the spatially explicit drivers of their changes in SSEA, this study provides a solid foundation for LULCC modeling and projection.     

From forest to farmland: pollen‐inferred land cover change across Europe using the pseudobiomization approach

Maps of continental‐scale land cover are utilized by a range of diverse users but whilst a range of products exist that describe present and recent land cover in Europe, there are currently no datasets that describe past variations over long time‐scales. User groups with an interest in past land cover include the climate modelling community, socio‐ecological historians and earth system scientists. Europe is one of the continents with the longest histories of land conversion from forest to farmland, thus understanding land cover change in this area is globally significant. This study applies the pseudobiomization method (PBM) to 982 pollen records from across Europe, taken from the European Pollen Database (EPD) to produce a first synthesis of pan‐European land cover change for the period 9000 bp to present, in contiguous 200 year time intervals. The PBM transforms pollen proportions from each site to one of eight land cover classes (LCCs) that are directly comparable to the CORINE land cover classification. The proportion of LCCs represented in each time window provides a spatially aggregated record of land cover change for temperate and northern Europe, and for a series of case study regions (western France, the western Alps, and the Czech Republic and Slovakia). At the European scale, the impact of Neolithic food producing economies appear to be detectable from 6000 bp through reduction in broad‐leaf forests resulting from human land use activities such as forest clearance. Total forest cover at a pan‐European scale moved outside the range of previous background variability from 4000 bp onwards. From 2200 bp land cover change intensified, and the broad pattern of land cover for preindustrial Europe was established by 1000 bp . Recognizing the timing of anthropogenic land cover change in Europe will further the understanding of land cover‐climate interactions, and the origins of the modern cultural landscape.     

Accounting for multiple ecosystem services in a simulation of land‐use decisions: Does it reduce tropical deforestation?

Conversion of tropical forests is among the primary causes of global environmental change. The loss of their important environmental services has prompted calls to integrate ecosystem services (ES) in addition to socio‐economic objectives in decision‐making. To test the effect of accounting for both ES and socio‐economic objectives in land‐use decisions, we develop a new dynamic approach to model deforestation scenarios for tropical mountain forests. We integrate multi‐objective optimization of land allocation with an innovative approach to consider uncertainty spaces for each objective. These uncertainty spaces account for potential variability among decision‐makers, who may have different expectations about the future. When optimizing only socio‐economic objectives, the model continues the past trend in deforestation (1975–2015) in the projected land‐use allocation (2015–2070). Based on indicators for biomass production, carbon storage, climate and water regulation, and soil quality, we show that considering multiple ES in addition to the socio‐economic objectives has heterogeneous effects on land‐use allocation. It saves some natural forest if the natural forest share is below 38%, and can stop deforestation once the natural forest share drops below 10%. For landscapes with high shares of forest (38%–80% in our study), accounting for multiple ES under high uncertainty of their indicators may, however, accelerate deforestation. For such multifunctional landscapes, two main effects prevail: (a) accelerated expansion of diversified non‐natural areas to elevate the levels of the indicators and (b) increased landscape diversification to maintain multiple ES, reducing the proportion of natural forest. Only when accounting for vascular plant species richness as an explicit objective in the optimization, deforestation was consistently reduced. Aiming for multifunctional landscapes may therefore conflict with the aim of reducing deforestation, which we can quantify here for the first time. Our findings are relevant for identifying types of landscapes where this conflict may arise and to better align respective policies.     

Land use,rangeland degradation and ecological changes in the southern Kalahari,Botswana

Dual‐scale analyses assessing farm‐scale patterns of ecological change and landscape‐scale patterns of change in vegetation cover and animal distribution are presented from ecological transect studies away from waterpoints, regional remotely sensed analysis of vegetation cover and animal numbers across the southern Kalahari, Botswana. Bush encroachment is prevalent in semi‐arid sites where Acacia mellifera Benth. is widespread in communal areas and private ranches, showing that land tenure changes over the last 40 years have not avoided rangeland degradation. Herbaceous cover is dominated in intensively grazed areas by the annual grass Schmidtia kalahariensis Stent and in moderately grazed areas by the perennial grass Eragrostis lehmanniana Nees. Nutritious perennial grass species including Eragrostis pallens Hack. Ex Schinz remain prevalent in Wildlife Management Areas. Other ecological changes include the invasion of the exotic Prosopis glandulosa Torr. and dense stands of Rhigozum trichotomum Kuntze. in the arid southwest. Regional patterns of wildlife species show that the expansion of cattleposts and fenced ranches has led to large areas of low wildlife conservation value even in areas where cattle production is not practiced. Findings show the need for integrated landscape‐scale planning of land use if the ecological value and biodiversity of the southern Kalahari is to be retained.     

Structural attributes,tree-ring growth and climate sensitivity of Pinus nigra Arn. at high altitude: common patterns of a possible treeline shift in the central Apennines (Italy)

European black pine (Pinus nigra ssp. nigra Arnold) encroachment at increasing elevation has been analyzed at four treeline ecotones of the central Apennines (Italy). The study sites are located along a North-South gradient of 170 km across Marche and Abruzzo regions in Central Italy. The aims of this study were: (i) to detect possible common patterns of structural attributes of black pine regeneration at the treeline ecotone; (ii) to date the seedlings germination and (iii) to assess the climate influence on the pine upward encroachment process also using intra-annual density fluctuations (IADFs) in tree-rings. We sampled 658 encroached black pine trees above the current treeline to the mountain top. All individuals were mapped and their basal stem diameter, total height, annual height increments and other structural attributes measured. One increment core was extracted from stem base of most samples for cambial age determination and detection of intra-annual density fluctuations (IADF). At two sites we also extracted cores at DBH from forest trees to assess climate–growth relationships of black pine. We used multivariate analysis (PCA) to explore the correlation structure of the main tree attributes, regression analysis to relate radial and height increment and dendroclimatic analysis to assess the influence of climate on tree growth and IADF formation.Most black pine trees were located at high altitude and their structural attributes were similar at the four sites where the pine encroachment process started between 30 and 40 years ago featuring similar germination peaks and growth patterns. Black pine is particularly sensitive to maximum temperatures and IADF occurred in mid-late summer with highest frequency peaks between 2003 and 2004. The pine encroachment process, besides the differences of environmental features and land use histories of the four study sites, appears synchronic and spatially diffused. Consistent tree-growth dynamics and the species adaptation to a warming climate are signals envisaging a possible treeline upward shift.     

Analysing Betula litwinowii encroachment and reforestation in the Kazbegi region,Greater Caucasus,Georgia

Aims

The encroachment of tree and shrub species in high mountains is an increasing worldwide phenomenon, which is expected to dramatically alter high‐mountain ecosystems and their functioning. Moreover it indicates in some cases a reforestation process, which will result in important ecological and social benefits, including carbon sequestration and protection against landslides. We therefore examined the spatial extent of forest growth and shrub encroachment mainly of birch (Betula litwinowii) in the sub‐alpine belt of the Central Greater Caucasus between 1987 and 2010 and its relation to topographic site conditions.

Location

Kazbegi district, Central Greater Caucasus, Georgia.

Methods

We analysed 155 vegetation relevés sampled in 2009, 2011 and 2015, mainly derived from the Caucasus Vegetation Database, to obtain information about topographic site conditions and structure of B. litwinowii stands. B. litwinowii forest growth was assessed by digitizing the forest outlines from aerial and space‐borne imagery (1987, 2005 and 2010). To identify areas of B. litwinowii encroachment as an indicator for different encroachment stages, we modelled the tree and shrub cover using the Random Forest algorithm.

Results

We found four types of B. litwinowii stands, characterized by different tree and shrub coverage (initial Bromus variegatus–Betula litwinowii encroachment indicating the first stage of succession, Aconitum nasutum–Betula litwinowii forest, Rubus idaeus–Betula litwinowii forest and Rhododendron caucasicum–Betula litwinowii tree line scrubs). B. litwinowii forest increased 25% compared to 1987 mainly in an uphill direction. Furthermore the modelled tree and shrub cover (R² = .69) could be related to the four vegetation types.

Conclusions

Our results indicate a recent trend towards shrub encroachment and consequently reforestation in the Kazbegi region.     

Spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of high‐elevation forest stands in southern Siberia

Aim To evaluate the hypothesis that topographic features of high‐elevation mountain environments govern spatial distribution and climate‐driven dynamics of the forest. Location Upper mountain forest stands (elevation range 1800–2600 m) in the mountains of southern Siberia. Methods Archive maps, satellite and on‐ground data from1960 to 2002 were used. Data were normalized to avoid bias caused by uneven distribution of topographic features (elevation, azimuth and slope steepness) within the analysed area. Spatial distribution of forest stands was analysed with respect to topography based on a digital elevation model (DEM). Results Spatial patterns in mountain forests are anisotropic with respect to azimuth, slope steepness and elevation. At a given elevation, the majority of forests occupied slopes with greater than mean slope values. As the elevation increased, forests shifted to steeper slopes. The orientation of forest azimuth distribution changed clockwise with increase in elevation (the total shift was 120°), indicating a combined effect of wind and water stress on the observed forest patterns. Warming caused changes in the forest distribution patterns during the last four decades. The area of closed forests increased 1.5 times, which was attributed to increased stand density and tree migration. The migration rate was 1.5 ± 0.9 m year^–1, causing a mean forest line shift of 63 ± 37 m. Along with upward migration, downward tree migration onto hill slopes was observed. Changes in tree morphology were also noted as widespread transformation of the prostrate forms of Siberian pine and larch into erect forms. Main conclusions The spatial pattern of upper mountain forests as well as the response of forests to warming strongly depends on topographic relief features (elevation, azimuth and slope steepness). With elevation increase (and thus a harsher environment) forests shifted to steep wind‐protected slopes. A considerable increase in the stand area and increased elevation of the upper forest line was observed coincident with the climate warming that was observed. Warming promotes migration of trees to areas that are less protected from winter desiccation and snow abrasion (i.e. areas with lower values of slope steepness). Climate‐induced forest response has significantly modified the spatial patterns of high‐elevation forests in southern Siberia during the last four decades, as well as tree morphology.     

Landscape Patterns of Tropical Forest Recovery in the Republic of Palau1

A GIS (geographic information systems) database was constructed from aerial photographs, a vegetation map, and topographic map data of the Ngeremeduu Bay Drainage Area (NBDA), Palau, to examine relationships between upland land cover dynamics, environmental variables, and past land use. In 1992, 82.9 percent of the NBDA was forest, 16.6 percent was grassland, and 0.5 percent consisted of village areas. Between 1947 and 1992, there was a 11.2 percent reduction of grassland area primarily due to a 10.9 percent increase in forest cover. These land cover changes led to larger, more continuous stretches of forest and numerous, highly fragmented grassland patches. Significant relationships (P 0.001) were found between the spatial distribution of forest and grassland cover and slope, elevation, soil pH, and percent soil organic matter. These patterns, however, may have resulted from past farm site selection rather than from ecological relationships. Our results indicate that areas of forest expansion were significantly (P 0.001) associated with the location of abandoned agricultural communities. In addition, over 92 percent of areas of forest expansion occurred within 100 m of established forest. These results suggest that the proximity of established forest facilitate forest recovery following human disturbance.     

How spatial heterogeneity of cover affects patterns of shrub encroachment into mesic grasslands

We used a multi-method approach to analyze the spatial patterns of shrubs and cover types (plant species, litter or bare soil) in grassland-shrubland ecotones. This approach allows us to assess how fine-scale spatial heterogeneity of cover types affects the patterns of Cytisus balansae shrub encroachment into mesic mountain grasslands (Catalan Pyrenees, Spain). Spatial patterns and the spatial associations between juvenile shrubs and different cover types were assessed in mesic grasslands dominated by species with different palatabilities (palatable grass Festuca nigrescens and unpalatable grass Festuca eskia). A new index, called RISES ("Relative Index of Shrub Encroachment Susceptibility"), was proposed to calculate the chances of shrub encroachment into a given grassland, combining the magnitude of the spatial associations and the surface area for each cover type. Overall, juveniles showed positive associations with palatable F. nigrescens and negative associations with unpalatable F. eskia, although these associations shifted with shrub development stage. In F. eskia grasslands, bare soil showed a low scale of pattern and positive associations with juveniles. Although the highest RISES values were found in F. nigrescens plots, the number of juvenile Cytisus was similar in both types of grasslands. However, F. nigrescens grasslands showed the greatest number of juveniles in early development stage (i.e. height<10 cm) whereas F. eskia grasslands showed the greatest number of juveniles in late development stages (i.e. height>30 cm). We concluded that in F. eskia grasslands, where establishment may be constrained by the dominant cover type, the low scale of pattern on bare soil may result in higher chances of shrub establishment and survival. In contrast, although grasslands dominated by the palatable F. nigrescens may be more susceptible to shrub establishment; current grazing rates may reduce juvenile survival.     

Combined land cover changes and habitat occupancy to understand corridor status of Laljhadi-Mohana wildlife corridor,Nepal

Corridor design is a centripetal conservation tool to facilitate movement between fragmented patches. Increases in anthropogenic activity have caused degradation in forest connectivity, influencing animal movement to a small degree. Laljhadi-Mohana wildlife corridor (LMWC), a corridor between Shuklaphanta National Park (Nepal) and Dudhwa National Park (India) created to be used by Panthera tigris and Elephas maximus in western Nepal, is under pressure of anthropogenic change. Using current knowledge, we analyzed land cover changes (LCC) of LMWC between 2002 and 2012. We used ERDAS IMAGINE 9.2 and Arc GIS 9.2 to process satellite images, and occupancy survey to assess status of corridor. We classified land cover into dense forest, sparse forest, cultivation, water bodies, grassland, expose surfaces, and sand bank as structural attributes of the corridor. Our analysis found dense forest area was reduced by 18.35% in a decade while cultivation and sparse forest increased by 10.15% and 8.89%, respectively. Illegal forest encroachment, resource extraction, grazing pressure, invasive species, and flood were major drivers of forest change. The null occupancy model estimated the highest detection probability of Elephas maximus (0.48 ± 0.08) and the lowest of Axis axis (0.20 ± 0.08). Incorporating site covariates improved occupancy estimates of Sus scrofa (0.82), Axis axis (0.76), Elephas maximus (0.76), Boselaphus tragocamelus (0.66), and Panthera pardus (0.55). Distance to cultivation was the most influential covariate, supported by the expansion of cultivated land in the corridor. LMWC is a functional wildlife corridor despite a decline in forest cover. This decline influenced the number and detection rates of large mammals, instigating crop raiding and conflict. Mitigation measures on LCC drivers, particularly forest encroachment, can improve the functional status of LMWC and raise detection rates of large mammals in future studies.